江苏工业结构升级研究
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摘要
现代区域工业增长过程,就是区域工业结构不断升级的过程,推进区域工业结构升级是区域工业发展的核心。本文在比较分析国内外工业结构升级理论研究成果的基础上,对江苏工业结构升级进行多层次多角度的系统研究。
本文从系统论的角度出发,提出区域工业结构升级的本质是构建先进的工业生产力系统。先进的区域工业生产力系统既包括先进的要素系统,也包括先进的结构系统和功能系统。工业结构升级就是推动工业生产力系统要素和结构的不断变化,导致生产力系统功能大幅提高,从而实现工业生产力系统整体性跃迁的过程。提出工业产业竞争力是工业结构升级的基础和表征,技术创新是结构升级的根本动力,对外开放是结构升级的外在条件,主导产业群的培育是结构升级的实现途径。
应用系统演化方法对江苏工业结构高度化演进行研究,结论表明工业结构总体上呈现出重工业化、高加工度化和技术密集化趋势,但工业结构升级效应不显著。装备制造业作为工业结构升级的先导和基础,发展严重滞后。加工工业存在虚高加工度化现象,非常规替代问题突出。效益结构倒挂,劳动密集型和部分资本密集型传统优势行业效益水平较高,技术密集型部门呈现出高效部门效益不高,增产不增效的局面。
通过对影响江苏工业结构升级的关键因素分析研究表明:江苏工业整体竞争力较强,优势行业有电子信息设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、纺织业、医药制造业、化学原料及化学制品制造业等产业,但存在传统优势行业竞争力逐步下降和产业可持续竞争力较差的问题;对外开放推动了江苏工业重工业化、技术集约化的发展,却没有促进高加工度化的发展;技术进步对江苏工业增长和结构变动作用显著;资源开采加工型行业和市场化程度比较高的轻加工业技术进步贡献率高;资本技术密集型行业的技术进步贡献率一般;高新技术产业技术进步贡献率低于劳动贡献率,提出提高自主创新能力是江苏工业技术进步的战略选择。选取增长能力、关联效应、科技创新能力、劳动生产率增长率、出口能力等五个基准对江苏制造业主导产业的选择进行实证分析,表明电子及通讯设备制造业、化学工业、电气机械及器材制造业、交通运输设备制造业、医药制造业等是江苏应该大力扶持与发展的主导产业。
建立工业结构高度化水平评价指标体系和确定评价指标分级标准,应用未确知综合评价模型,以江苏等六省市为对象进行了实证分析,得出江苏工业结构高度化水平低于上海、北京,但高于广东、浙江和山东。提出“十一五”推进江苏工业结构升级的思路和对策。
The development of regional modern industry is the process of industry structure upgrading. And industry structure upgrade is the core of the development of regional industry. On the basis of comparative study on the theories of industry structure upgrade home and abroad, this dissertation makes a systemic research on industry structure evolvement of Jiangsu province.
The article embarks from the system theory angle, puts forward that the essence of regional industry structure upgrade is to construct an advanced industry productive forces system, which not only includes the advanced productive factor system, but also includes the advanced structure system and functional system. The industry structure upgrade is to impel the continuously evolvement of essential elements and structure of industry productive forces system, and leads to the productive forces system function to improve largely, thus realizes the holistic transition of industry productive forces system finally. Then, the dissertation points out that to achieve industry structure upgrade, industry competitive power is the foundation and attribute of, technological innovation is the basic power, the opening-up to the outside world is the external condition, and cultivation of the leading industry group is the realization approach.
Applying system evolution method to analyze the development of industry structure, the conclusion indicates that Jiangsu industry structure as a whole presents the tendency of heavy-industrlized, high processing and technical intensive, but the industry structure upgrade effect is not remarkable. As the forerunner and the foundation of industry structure, the development of equipment manufacturing industry lags behind seriously. And such problems as false highly- processing phenomenon, the non-conventional substitution question is prominent in the manufacturing industry. The benefit structure hangs upside down, the traditional labor-intensive and some capital-intensive superior industries benefit level is high, while the technology-intensive department presents low benefit level.
The analysis of the key factors which play important role in the upgrade of Jiangsu industry structure indicates as follows: The Jiangsu industry has a strong competitive power as a whole. And such industries as electronic information equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, textile, medicine manufacturing, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing, have a competitive advantages. However, the traditional superior industries still face some problems like the worsening of competitive edge. The opening-up to the outside world has impelled heavy-industrialization and technical intensification development of Jiangsu industry, but has not actually promoted the high processing development; Technology advancement is remarkable to the Jiangsu industry growth and the structure change, and contributes larger share to such industries as resources mining and manufacturing, light manufacturing industries with high marketization ratio, comparing with its contribution in the capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. And labor input contributes a larger share than technology innovation in the Hi-tech industries. Then, the dissertation puts forward that to sharpen the independent innovation ability is the strategic choice for development of Jiangsu industrial technology. Then the author selects such five criteria as growth ability, connection effect, technical innovation ability, the labor productivity rate of increment, export ability to carry on positive analysis to the choosing of Jiangsu manufacturing industry leading industry, and the result indicates such industries as electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, chemistry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, medicine manufacturing are the key leading industries that Jiangsu should support to develop.
The heightening indexes system of regional industrial structure is set up and defines the standardization of evaluation indexes. A sort of comparatively reasonable utility evaluation model is set up. Jiangsu and other six Province and City as example is positive analyzed, that truly reflects the fact of the regional industry structure. The thought and measure of“eleven five”upgrading of industrial structure is put forwarded.
本文从系统论的角度出发,提出区域工业结构升级的本质是构建先进的工业生产力系统。先进的区域工业生产力系统既包括先进的要素系统,也包括先进的结构系统和功能系统。工业结构升级就是推动工业生产力系统要素和结构的不断变化,导致生产力系统功能大幅提高,从而实现工业生产力系统整体性跃迁的过程。提出工业产业竞争力是工业结构升级的基础和表征,技术创新是结构升级的根本动力,对外开放是结构升级的外在条件,主导产业群的培育是结构升级的实现途径。
应用系统演化方法对江苏工业结构高度化演进行研究,结论表明工业结构总体上呈现出重工业化、高加工度化和技术密集化趋势,但工业结构升级效应不显著。装备制造业作为工业结构升级的先导和基础,发展严重滞后。加工工业存在虚高加工度化现象,非常规替代问题突出。效益结构倒挂,劳动密集型和部分资本密集型传统优势行业效益水平较高,技术密集型部门呈现出高效部门效益不高,增产不增效的局面。
通过对影响江苏工业结构升级的关键因素分析研究表明:江苏工业整体竞争力较强,优势行业有电子信息设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、纺织业、医药制造业、化学原料及化学制品制造业等产业,但存在传统优势行业竞争力逐步下降和产业可持续竞争力较差的问题;对外开放推动了江苏工业重工业化、技术集约化的发展,却没有促进高加工度化的发展;技术进步对江苏工业增长和结构变动作用显著;资源开采加工型行业和市场化程度比较高的轻加工业技术进步贡献率高;资本技术密集型行业的技术进步贡献率一般;高新技术产业技术进步贡献率低于劳动贡献率,提出提高自主创新能力是江苏工业技术进步的战略选择。选取增长能力、关联效应、科技创新能力、劳动生产率增长率、出口能力等五个基准对江苏制造业主导产业的选择进行实证分析,表明电子及通讯设备制造业、化学工业、电气机械及器材制造业、交通运输设备制造业、医药制造业等是江苏应该大力扶持与发展的主导产业。
建立工业结构高度化水平评价指标体系和确定评价指标分级标准,应用未确知综合评价模型,以江苏等六省市为对象进行了实证分析,得出江苏工业结构高度化水平低于上海、北京,但高于广东、浙江和山东。提出“十一五”推进江苏工业结构升级的思路和对策。
The development of regional modern industry is the process of industry structure upgrading. And industry structure upgrade is the core of the development of regional industry. On the basis of comparative study on the theories of industry structure upgrade home and abroad, this dissertation makes a systemic research on industry structure evolvement of Jiangsu province.
The article embarks from the system theory angle, puts forward that the essence of regional industry structure upgrade is to construct an advanced industry productive forces system, which not only includes the advanced productive factor system, but also includes the advanced structure system and functional system. The industry structure upgrade is to impel the continuously evolvement of essential elements and structure of industry productive forces system, and leads to the productive forces system function to improve largely, thus realizes the holistic transition of industry productive forces system finally. Then, the dissertation points out that to achieve industry structure upgrade, industry competitive power is the foundation and attribute of, technological innovation is the basic power, the opening-up to the outside world is the external condition, and cultivation of the leading industry group is the realization approach.
Applying system evolution method to analyze the development of industry structure, the conclusion indicates that Jiangsu industry structure as a whole presents the tendency of heavy-industrlized, high processing and technical intensive, but the industry structure upgrade effect is not remarkable. As the forerunner and the foundation of industry structure, the development of equipment manufacturing industry lags behind seriously. And such problems as false highly- processing phenomenon, the non-conventional substitution question is prominent in the manufacturing industry. The benefit structure hangs upside down, the traditional labor-intensive and some capital-intensive superior industries benefit level is high, while the technology-intensive department presents low benefit level.
The analysis of the key factors which play important role in the upgrade of Jiangsu industry structure indicates as follows: The Jiangsu industry has a strong competitive power as a whole. And such industries as electronic information equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, textile, medicine manufacturing, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing, have a competitive advantages. However, the traditional superior industries still face some problems like the worsening of competitive edge. The opening-up to the outside world has impelled heavy-industrialization and technical intensification development of Jiangsu industry, but has not actually promoted the high processing development; Technology advancement is remarkable to the Jiangsu industry growth and the structure change, and contributes larger share to such industries as resources mining and manufacturing, light manufacturing industries with high marketization ratio, comparing with its contribution in the capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. And labor input contributes a larger share than technology innovation in the Hi-tech industries. Then, the dissertation puts forward that to sharpen the independent innovation ability is the strategic choice for development of Jiangsu industrial technology. Then the author selects such five criteria as growth ability, connection effect, technical innovation ability, the labor productivity rate of increment, export ability to carry on positive analysis to the choosing of Jiangsu manufacturing industry leading industry, and the result indicates such industries as electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, chemistry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, medicine manufacturing are the key leading industries that Jiangsu should support to develop.
The heightening indexes system of regional industrial structure is set up and defines the standardization of evaluation indexes. A sort of comparatively reasonable utility evaluation model is set up. Jiangsu and other six Province and City as example is positive analyzed, that truly reflects the fact of the regional industry structure. The thought and measure of“eleven five”upgrading of industrial structure is put forwarded.
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