东亚生产网络的形成与深化：理论和实证研究
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摘要
2020世纪60年代臵90年代,“雁阵模式”在东亚得到了充分的验证,并创造出所谓“东亚奇迹”。20世纪90年代以来,随着技术水平的提高与运输成本的下降,国际分工不断深化,逐渐由产业间分工向产业内以及产品内分工发展。仡在东亚,原有的“雁阵模式”已经改变,各经济体之间的经贸关系日益紧密,分‘工与贸易的区域化特征不断增强,形成了基于产品内分工的区域性生产网络。相在此背景下,本文从产品内分工理论出发,对东亚区域性生产网络的形成与深化进行分析；并基于东亚各经济体的零部件贸易数据,采用面板引力模型方法对对理论模型进行实证检验。
本本文第一章为导论部分,介绍绍文章研究背景、文献综述和分析框架等。第：二章对基于比较优势理论、新贸易理论以及不完全契约理论的产品内分工理论进进行综述研究。第三章在Feenstra(2003)连续中间产品的分工模型基础上对东亚生产网络的形成与深化进行理论分析。首先,各国按照比较优势参与产品内分工,其在生产网络中所处技术等级由其比较优势决定。其次,在“华盛顿苹果效应”假设条件下,由地理距离产生的贸易成本与中间产品的技术等级有关。具体表现为：技术等级越低的中间产品对距离变动越敏感。区域性生产网络更有助于促进发展中国家参与产品内分工,而发展中国家的邻近也促进了东亚生产网络的形成。再次,“资本知识复合投入品”的跨境流动会对生产网络中的产品内分工格局产生影响。其中,发达国家将通过“资本知识复合投入品”流出代替对发展中国家的中间产品出口；对于发展中国家而言,“资本知识复合投入品”的流入能够减少其对来自发达国家的高技术等级中间产品的进口依赖程度,使其在生产网络中所处的技术等级得到提升,并且使得距离因素对其参与产品内分工的限制作用有所降低。最后,本文理论研究认为,东亚生产网络的区位优协来自于低技术等级之间的邻近；但这一区位优势将随着资本知识复合投入品的跨境流动而被削弱。
本文第四章对东亚生产网络中的商品贸易、FDI和服务贸易等进行描述性统计分析。商品贸易方面,东亚的全球化特征与区域化特征并存。各经济体都已经基本实现从产业间向产业内和产品内分工的转变,零部件贸易的大量增长表现出东亚地区生产网络化程度的提高。商品贸易以外,东亚在FDI和服务贸易等方面也有显著增长。东亚地区正逐渐摆脱对日本投资的依赖性,NIES成为区域内重要的FDI来源。服务贸易和生产者服务贸易方面,NIES同样也是东亚地区最主要的参与者。此外,东亚尤其是发展中国家的服务贸易壁垒仍然很高,服务贸易和生产者服务贸易的主要制约因素就来自于发展中国家对于某些行业中的政策限制。
第五章基于零部件贸易数据,对于地理区位因素、FDI和生产者服务贸易等因素对东亚生产网络的影响进行计量检验。文章采用面板引力模型的实证方法,以2000-2009年东亚经济体的零部件贸易数据对东亚区域性生产网络的分工和贸易模式进行检验。首先,在东亚生产网络中,零部件贸易的距离弹性在国家之间有所差异。总体而言,收入水平较高的国家零部件进口的距离弹性大于出口,收入水平较低的国家零部件出口的距离弹性则大于进口。其次,距离弹性差异的引力模型回归结果进一步证明了零部件贸易的“华盛顿苹果效应”：零部件技术等级越低,其在贸易过程中对距离变动表现的越为敏感。东亚生产网络的区域性使得距离对零部件贸易的阻碍作用总体上有所降低,但“华盛顿苹果效应”仍然存在。再次,作为“资本知识复合投入品”跨境流动的现实代表,FDI和生产者服务贸易总体上替代了发达国家的零部件出口,并促进了发展中国家的零部件出口。从技术结构来看,FDI和生产者服务贸易增加了发达国家对低技术等级零部件的进口,并减少了发展中国家对高技术等级零部件的进口。最后,对中国的研究结果还表明,FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加使中国的零部件出口更加趋向全球化,而区域化特征有所减弱。由此证明FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加将使发展中国家在生产网络中所处技术等级得到提升,进而使得其参与产品内分工的空间范围得到扩展。
第六章在全文分析基础上对文章进行总结。低技术等级之间的邻近是推动东亚生产网络形成的重要动因和区位优势。然而,随着生产网络中分工关系的深化,FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加,这种优势将逐渐减弱。本文研究认为未来东亚生产网络势必在空间范围上更为开放,并通过商品贸易、服务贸易和投资全面一体化的实现获取新的区位优势。
From the1960s to1990s, The "Geese-flying Pattern" has been sufficiently verified in East Asia, and created the "East Asian miracle".Since1990s, with the advancing in technology and reducing in transport costs, the pattern of international specialization is from inter-industry specialization, intra-industry specialization to intra-product specialization. In East Asia, the "Geese-flying Pattern" has been changed. The economy and trade relationship among the economies of East Asia is obviously a lot closer. A regional production network of East Asia based on intra-product specialization has taken shape effectively. In this context, the article researches on the formation and deepen of East Asia production network from intra-product specialization theory, and also tests the theoretical analysis based on the panel gravity model use the data of parts&components trade of East Asia.
Chapterl introduces the background, literature review and the structure of this thesis. Then Chapter2reviews the theories of the intra-product specialization based on comparative advantage theory, new trade theory and imperfect contract theory. Chapter3is the part of theoretical analysis of this thesis. Based on the model of Feenstra (2003), it analyses East Asia production network theoretically. Firstly, every country participates in international specialization based on comparative advantage. Then the technology degree of the country is decided by its comparative advantage. Secondly, under the condition of "'Washington apples effect", impact of distance on trade cost is related to the technology degree of intermediate goods. The study indicates "Washington apples effect" of trade costs of intermediate goods is characterized by that the intermediate goods in lower technology degree has bigger distance elasticity. The geographic distance of the regional production network contributes to.the participation of the intra-product specialization of the developing countries. Meanwhile, the location of the developing countries contributes to the formation of East Asia production network. Moreover, the cross-border flows of the "complex inputs of capital and knowledge" can change the pattern of the intra-product specialization in the production network. It decreases intermediate goods exports from developed countries; meanwhile increases intermediate goods exports from developing countries. It makes the developing countries to reduce their dependence on the high technology degree intermediate goods from the developed countries. As a result of the cross-border flows of the "complex inputs of capital and knowledge", the technology degree of the developing countries in the production network is upgraded. Meanwhile, the inhibition of distance to the developing countries'participating in intra-product specialization is reduced. Finally, it is proved that, the proximity of economies from lower degree of technology makes an advantage of East Asia production network. However, this advantage is decreasing because of the cross-border flows of the "complex inputs of capital and knowledge".
Chapter4makes a descriptive statistics of trade of goods, FDI and trade of services in East Asia. It is showed that the characteristic of the trade of goods of East Asia economies is not only globalization but also regionalization. The means of division of labor of economies in East Asia has been changed from Inter-industry specialization to Intra-industry specialization and Intra-product Specialization. In East Asia, the growth of parts and components implies the great development of the networked production. FDI and trade of services have also registered marked increases. The economies in East Asia gradually free from financial dependence on Japan. The NIEs are becoming the important sources of FDI in East Asia. The NIEs also play significant roles in the trade of services and producer services in East Asia. In developing countries, the trade barriers of services especially some policy restrictions for some industries throttle the trade of services.
Chapter5examines the impact of regional character of geography, FDI and producer service trade on East Asia production network based on data of parts&components trade. It conducts the empirical panel data of parts&components trade of economies of East Asia years from2000to2009based on gravity equation. First of all, there is a difference of distance elasticity of parts&components trade among economies in East Asia production network. Generally, the high-income economies have a greater distance elasticity of their parts&components imports than exports. Conversely, the low-income economies have a greater distance elasticity of their parts&components exports than imports. Then it proves the existence of the "Washington apples effect" of parts&components trade by the gravity model of variance elasticity of distance. The parts&components in lower degree of technology are more sensitive to distance. Due to the obviously geographical superiority of East Asia production network, the distance resistance to parts&components trade is lessened. But the "Washington apples effect" is still effective. Furthermore, it is also proved that the cross-border flows of the "complex inputs of capital and knowledge", which represented by FDI and trade of producer service, make the exports of parts&components from the developed country decreasing, as well as the exports of parts&components from the developing countries increasing. For the degrees of technology in East Asia production network, it is showed that with the raise of FDI and trade of producer service, the low technology degree imports of parts&components by the developed country is increasing, as well as the high technology degree imports of parts&components by the developed country is decreasing. At last, for China, it is also certified that FDI and imports of producer service makes parts&components exports more globalization and less regionalization. The location advantage of East Asia production network will be weaker progressively since the FDI and trade of producer service.
Chapter6draws the conclusions of the paper. The economies of lower degrees of technology are proximity to each other, which drives the East Asia production network performance, and makes the location advantage of the production network. However, FDI and producer service trade has increased with developing of the specialization in the production network. Therefore, the location advantage of East Asia production network has been undermined. In the future, East Asia production network will expand its space range, and gain the location advantage by integration of trade of goods, trade of service and also investment.
本本文第一章为导论部分,介绍绍文章研究背景、文献综述和分析框架等。第：二章对基于比较优势理论、新贸易理论以及不完全契约理论的产品内分工理论进进行综述研究。第三章在Feenstra(2003)连续中间产品的分工模型基础上对东亚生产网络的形成与深化进行理论分析。首先,各国按照比较优势参与产品内分工,其在生产网络中所处技术等级由其比较优势决定。其次,在“华盛顿苹果效应”假设条件下,由地理距离产生的贸易成本与中间产品的技术等级有关。具体表现为：技术等级越低的中间产品对距离变动越敏感。区域性生产网络更有助于促进发展中国家参与产品内分工,而发展中国家的邻近也促进了东亚生产网络的形成。再次,“资本知识复合投入品”的跨境流动会对生产网络中的产品内分工格局产生影响。其中,发达国家将通过“资本知识复合投入品”流出代替对发展中国家的中间产品出口；对于发展中国家而言,“资本知识复合投入品”的流入能够减少其对来自发达国家的高技术等级中间产品的进口依赖程度,使其在生产网络中所处的技术等级得到提升,并且使得距离因素对其参与产品内分工的限制作用有所降低。最后,本文理论研究认为,东亚生产网络的区位优协来自于低技术等级之间的邻近；但这一区位优势将随着资本知识复合投入品的跨境流动而被削弱。
本文第四章对东亚生产网络中的商品贸易、FDI和服务贸易等进行描述性统计分析。商品贸易方面,东亚的全球化特征与区域化特征并存。各经济体都已经基本实现从产业间向产业内和产品内分工的转变,零部件贸易的大量增长表现出东亚地区生产网络化程度的提高。商品贸易以外,东亚在FDI和服务贸易等方面也有显著增长。东亚地区正逐渐摆脱对日本投资的依赖性,NIES成为区域内重要的FDI来源。服务贸易和生产者服务贸易方面,NIES同样也是东亚地区最主要的参与者。此外,东亚尤其是发展中国家的服务贸易壁垒仍然很高,服务贸易和生产者服务贸易的主要制约因素就来自于发展中国家对于某些行业中的政策限制。
第五章基于零部件贸易数据,对于地理区位因素、FDI和生产者服务贸易等因素对东亚生产网络的影响进行计量检验。文章采用面板引力模型的实证方法,以2000-2009年东亚经济体的零部件贸易数据对东亚区域性生产网络的分工和贸易模式进行检验。首先,在东亚生产网络中,零部件贸易的距离弹性在国家之间有所差异。总体而言,收入水平较高的国家零部件进口的距离弹性大于出口,收入水平较低的国家零部件出口的距离弹性则大于进口。其次,距离弹性差异的引力模型回归结果进一步证明了零部件贸易的“华盛顿苹果效应”：零部件技术等级越低,其在贸易过程中对距离变动表现的越为敏感。东亚生产网络的区域性使得距离对零部件贸易的阻碍作用总体上有所降低,但“华盛顿苹果效应”仍然存在。再次,作为“资本知识复合投入品”跨境流动的现实代表,FDI和生产者服务贸易总体上替代了发达国家的零部件出口,并促进了发展中国家的零部件出口。从技术结构来看,FDI和生产者服务贸易增加了发达国家对低技术等级零部件的进口,并减少了发展中国家对高技术等级零部件的进口。最后,对中国的研究结果还表明,FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加使中国的零部件出口更加趋向全球化,而区域化特征有所减弱。由此证明FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加将使发展中国家在生产网络中所处技术等级得到提升,进而使得其参与产品内分工的空间范围得到扩展。
第六章在全文分析基础上对文章进行总结。低技术等级之间的邻近是推动东亚生产网络形成的重要动因和区位优势。然而,随着生产网络中分工关系的深化,FDI和生产者服务贸易的增加,这种优势将逐渐减弱。本文研究认为未来东亚生产网络势必在空间范围上更为开放,并通过商品贸易、服务贸易和投资全面一体化的实现获取新的区位优势。
From the1960s to1990s, The "Geese-flying Pattern" has been sufficiently verified in East Asia, and created the "East Asian miracle".Since1990s, with the advancing in technology and reducing in transport costs, the pattern of international specialization is from inter-industry specialization, intra-industry specialization to intra-product specialization. In East Asia, the "Geese-flying Pattern" has been changed. The economy and trade relationship among the economies of East Asia is obviously a lot closer. A regional production network of East Asia based on intra-product specialization has taken shape effectively. In this context, the article researches on the formation and deepen of East Asia production network from intra-product specialization theory, and also tests the theoretical analysis based on the panel gravity model use the data of parts&components trade of East Asia.
Chapterl introduces the background, literature review and the structure of this thesis. Then Chapter2reviews the theories of the intra-product specialization based on comparative advantage theory, new trade theory and imperfect contract theory. Chapter3is the part of theoretical analysis of this thesis. Based on the model of Feenstra (2003), it analyses East Asia production network theoretically. Firstly, every country participates in international specialization based on comparative advantage. Then the technology degree of the country is decided by its comparative advantage. Secondly, under the condition of "'Washington apples effect", impact of distance on trade cost is related to the technology degree of intermediate goods. The study indicates "Washington apples effect" of trade costs of intermediate goods is characterized by that the intermediate goods in lower technology degree has bigger distance elasticity. The geographic distance of the regional production network contributes to.the participation of the intra-product specialization of the developing countries. Meanwhile, the location of the developing countries contributes to the formation of East Asia production network. Moreover, the cross-border flows of the "complex inputs of capital and knowledge" can change the pattern of the intra-product specialization in the production network. It decreases intermediate goods exports from developed countries; meanwhile increases intermediate goods exports from developing countries. It makes the developing countries to reduce their dependence on the high technology degree intermediate goods from the developed countries. As a result of the cross-border flows of the "complex inputs of capital and knowledge", the technology degree of the developing countries in the production network is upgraded. Meanwhile, the inhibition of distance to the developing countries'participating in intra-product specialization is reduced. Finally, it is proved that, the proximity of economies from lower degree of technology makes an advantage of East Asia production network. However, this advantage is decreasing because of the cross-border flows of the "complex inputs of capital and knowledge".
Chapter4makes a descriptive statistics of trade of goods, FDI and trade of services in East Asia. It is showed that the characteristic of the trade of goods of East Asia economies is not only globalization but also regionalization. The means of division of labor of economies in East Asia has been changed from Inter-industry specialization to Intra-industry specialization and Intra-product Specialization. In East Asia, the growth of parts and components implies the great development of the networked production. FDI and trade of services have also registered marked increases. The economies in East Asia gradually free from financial dependence on Japan. The NIEs are becoming the important sources of FDI in East Asia. The NIEs also play significant roles in the trade of services and producer services in East Asia. In developing countries, the trade barriers of services especially some policy restrictions for some industries throttle the trade of services.
Chapter5examines the impact of regional character of geography, FDI and producer service trade on East Asia production network based on data of parts&components trade. It conducts the empirical panel data of parts&components trade of economies of East Asia years from2000to2009based on gravity equation. First of all, there is a difference of distance elasticity of parts&components trade among economies in East Asia production network. Generally, the high-income economies have a greater distance elasticity of their parts&components imports than exports. Conversely, the low-income economies have a greater distance elasticity of their parts&components exports than imports. Then it proves the existence of the "Washington apples effect" of parts&components trade by the gravity model of variance elasticity of distance. The parts&components in lower degree of technology are more sensitive to distance. Due to the obviously geographical superiority of East Asia production network, the distance resistance to parts&components trade is lessened. But the "Washington apples effect" is still effective. Furthermore, it is also proved that the cross-border flows of the "complex inputs of capital and knowledge", which represented by FDI and trade of producer service, make the exports of parts&components from the developed country decreasing, as well as the exports of parts&components from the developing countries increasing. For the degrees of technology in East Asia production network, it is showed that with the raise of FDI and trade of producer service, the low technology degree imports of parts&components by the developed country is increasing, as well as the high technology degree imports of parts&components by the developed country is decreasing. At last, for China, it is also certified that FDI and imports of producer service makes parts&components exports more globalization and less regionalization. The location advantage of East Asia production network will be weaker progressively since the FDI and trade of producer service.
Chapter6draws the conclusions of the paper. The economies of lower degrees of technology are proximity to each other, which drives the East Asia production network performance, and makes the location advantage of the production network. However, FDI and producer service trade has increased with developing of the specialization in the production network. Therefore, the location advantage of East Asia production network has been undermined. In the future, East Asia production network will expand its space range, and gain the location advantage by integration of trade of goods, trade of service and also investment.
引文
① Kimura、Hayakawa和 Matsuura,2009, Gains from Fragmentation at the Firm Level:Evidence from Japanese Multinationals in East Asia
1 张岩、米彦梅,金融危机影响下的日本对华直接投资及其特点,,《日本经济与中日经贸关系发展报告2010》
2 该报告采用两个指标FDI结合度(Degree of Integration, DI)和FDI密集度指数(Intensity Index,Ⅱ)衡量经济体间FDI相互存度。指数大于1,表明两国的FDI联系程度密切；反之,FDI联系程度不密切。在计算双边FDI相互依存度指数时,需要明确是从母国或东道国角度来计算FDI流出或流入的相关
1 世界银行 《东亚复兴：关于经济增长的观点》
Richard Baldwin 和 Daria Taglioni, Gravity Chains, NBER Working Paper 16672,2011
① 鼓支伟、白雪飞,服务联系成本、基础设施建设和东亚垂直分工：1992-2006.《世界经济研究》.2010年第6期
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1 张岩、米彦梅,金融危机影响下的日本对华直接投资及其特点,,《日本经济与中日经贸关系发展报告2010》
2 该报告采用两个指标FDI结合度(Degree of Integration, DI)和FDI密集度指数(Intensity Index,Ⅱ)衡量经济体间FDI相互存度。指数大于1,表明两国的FDI联系程度密切；反之,FDI联系程度不密切。在计算双边FDI相互依存度指数时,需要明确是从母国或东道国角度来计算FDI流出或流入的相关
1 世界银行 《东亚复兴：关于经济增长的观点》
Richard Baldwin 和 Daria Taglioni, Gravity Chains, NBER Working Paper 16672,2011
① 鼓支伟、白雪飞,服务联系成本、基础设施建设和东亚垂直分工：1992-2006.《世界经济研究》.2010年第6期
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