产业协调发展与工业结构升级研究
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摘要
产业结构是决定经济增长方式的重要因素，是衡量经济发展水平和体现国民经济整体素质的重要标志。工业结构则是转型期发展中国家产业结构的重心所在，很大程度上决定着工业化的速度和质量，决定着社会经济的发展。对正处于工业化过程中的中国而言，通过何种途径促进工业结构不断升级，是关系到我国新型工业化能否顺利实现，能否实现经济增长方式的平稳转换的关键问题之一，也是本文关注的焦点。为了解决上述问题，本文构建了产业协调发展与工业结构高度化的基础理论框架，在此基础上，对我国产业结构的现状和存在的问题进行了分析，进而深入分析了如何通过促进我国生产性服务业发展实现产业结构协调发展，进而推动工业结构不断高度化。
识别产业协调发展和工业结构高度化的标准是分析的起点，文章第一部分首先探讨了产业协调发展、工业结构高度化的定义和判断标准，并根据研究目的选择了本研究的标准。通过分析，我们从两个角度判断产业发展是否失调：首先，判断产业发展在变动方向上是否合理，即考察产业结构的变动是否符合经济发展的一般规律；然后，将一国或地区的与标准结构进行对比，从静态角度判断产业结构是否合理，在这两个方面均是合理的产业结构才是协调发展的产业，否则，则反之。同时，本研究将生产效率作为判断工业结构高度化的标准。
第二部分是本研究理论基础。文章首先从一般意义上分析了各次产业协调发展与工业结构高度化之间的机理；接着，分别从两个方面分析了第一、二产业协调发展以及第二、三产业协调发展与工业结构升级的机理。通过分析，我们得出结论：产业协调发展能地推动工业结构不断升级。
文章第三部分是实证研究部分，旨在通过对西方发达国家工业化历程的考察为上述理论基础提供更进一步的证据支持。通过对美国、英国和日本三个典型的西方先行工业化国家产业协调发展和工业结构升级的经验分析，我们认为：产业协调发展能推动工业结构升级；否则，则反之。
第四部分从产业协调发展的角度对中国产业结构发展中存在的问题进行了诊断分析。通过对新中国成立以来产业协调发展与工业结构升级经验教训的总结以及对目前中国产业结构存在问题的分析，我们认为：我国产业发展失调现象还比较突出，主要表现在：(1)农业发展基础薄弱、农业结构问题突出以及农业加工水平落后；(2)第二产业成为经济增长主导产业，但工业结构名义高度化较快，实际高度化不足；(3)服务业发展滞后，内部结构不合理，市场竞争不足。
文章第五部分针探讨了我国生产性服务业的与制造业发展的关系及生产性服务业FDI对中国工业结构升级的影响，以促进产业协调发展，推动工业结构不断升级。首先，我们考察了中国生产性服务业对制造业的影响。生产性服务业的发展不仅可以促进第二、三产业协调发展而且可以促进第三产业内部协调发展。鉴于此，本文首先系统分析了不同区域生产性服务业发展的影响因素，有针对性的提出不同的发展策略；在中国，生产性服务业的一半以上是为工业提供服务的，因此，我们进一步深入分析我国生产性服务业与制造业间发展的关系。通过分析发现，目前，在中国二者间长期的发展并没有形成良好的互动关系，是典型的需求带动型发展模式，而短期内，二者却形成一种互动关系；最后，文章研究了生产性服务业FDI对中国工业结构升级的影响。生产性服务业外商直接投资固然可以促进我国生产性服务业整体发展，但吸引外资应能更好的服务于中国工业结构尤其是本土工业升级。通过分析后发现，外商直接投资生产性服务业对外资工业结构高度化的作用远大于对内资工业结构升级的作用。
本研究的创新之处有：(1)文章构建了产业协调发展与工业结构升级的理论框架；(2)首次系统分析了影响中国生产性服务业发展的各种影响因素及不同因素对不同区域生产性服务业发展的差异；(3)运用误差修正模型重新考察了中国生产性服务业与制造业发展间的关系，并得出新的结论；(4)本文首次研究了生产性服务业FDI对中国工业结构升级的影响。
Industrial structure is a key factor to determine the style of economic growth and it isalso an important symbol to measure the level of economic development and the quality ofnational economics. Manufacturing industry structure is the center of industrial structureespecially for developing country in transition period, meanwhile it determines the speedand quality of industrialization and the development of social economy. The approach topromote the continuous industrial structure upgrading is a crucial problem which mayinfluence the realization of our country's new industrialization process and smoothtransition of macroeconomic growth, which is also the focus of this dissertation. In orderto solve the problems mentioned above, this dissertation builds a basic theoreticalframework of coordinated industry development and industrial structure upgrading. Basedon the framework,the author analyze the current situation of industrial structure of Chinaand the problems remained. How to promote the productive service to realize thecoordinated development of industry structure is also analyzed.
To identify the standard of coordinated development of industry and manufacturingindustry structure upgrading is the basis of this research. The first section discusses thedefinition and standard of industry structure coordinated development and manufacturingindustry structure upgrading, in addition chooses a standard according to the research goal.Througn the analysis, the author made a judgment from two aspects about whether theindustry structure is off balance. Firstly, the rationality of the industry structure'stransforming direction, which must conform to the general rule of economic development,should be judged. Then the structure of a country or a region should be compared with thestandard structure to determine the rationality of the structure from the static aspect. Thereasonable structure should fulfill the two requests at the same time. Meanwhile,productivity is regarded as the standard of upgrading manufacturing industry structure.
The second section is the theoretical basis of this study. Firstly, the article hasanalyzed the mechanism between industrial coordinated developments and upgradingmanufacturing industry structure from a general view. Then the author separately analyzes the mechanism on coordinated development between the first industry and the secondaryindustry as well as the secondary industry and tertiary industry. Finally a conclusion isreached that coordinated development of industry can promote continuous upgradingmanufacturing industry structure.
The third section is the empirical research. It aims to provide further evidence toprove the theoretical basis mentioned by summarizing the expanding industrial structureand upgrading manufacturing industry structure experience in Western developedcountries such as United States, Britain and Japan. It is concluded that the coordinateddevelopment of industry will promote the upgrading of manufacturing industrial structureand vice versa.
The problems remained in the expansion of Chinese industrial structure are analyzedin the fourth section. Experience has been learnt from the development of industrialstructure and upgrading manufacturing industry structure since 1949. The author analyzesthe problem of industrial structure at the present time as well. The conclusions are asfollows: (1) the foundation of agricultural development is rather weak. The main problemis the underdevelopment of agricultural industrialization. (2) The secondary industry is thedominant industry of our economy. But its proportion of production value has been toolarge, while its productive efficiency has been comparatively small. (3) The share of thetertiary industry is much lower than required. Its internal structure is unsatisfactory andmarket competition is rather scarce.
The fifth section of this article explores on how to boost tertiary industries in Chinain order to promote coordinated development of industrial structure and upgrademanufacturing industry structure. Some crucial factors are found in producer services inorder to provide some policies to boost it. So the author analyzes influential factors inproducer services of Eastern, Middle and Western regions, and some suggestions are given.Now productive services have been employed by at least half of the secondary industry inChina. Then we further investigate the linkage between manufacturing industry andproducer services. The results showe that producer services industry and manufacturingindustry have unilateralism causality in the long term. However they have bidirectionalcausalities in short term.
Finally, this section studies the main influence of productive service FDI to the upgrading of Chinese industrial structure. It is true that the productive service FDI canpromote the whole development of productive industry, the importing of foreign capitalshould have more positive effect on industry structure, especially on local industryupgrade. And the conclusion was reached that the FDI's effect on foreign industrystructure upgrading is more than the effect on the native one.
There are four innovations in this dissertation: (1) the basic theoretical frameworkhas been built between coordinated development and upgrading of manufacturing industrystructure. (2) It is the first article that has systemically analyzed every kind of influencingfactor which affects producer services industry in China. (3)the author reinvestigate thelinkage between manufacturing industry and producer services with the error-correctionmodel, which shows different results.(4) the impacts of the producer services sector'sFDI on upgrading of manufacturing industry structure is also analyzed for the first time in.this dissertation.
识别产业协调发展和工业结构高度化的标准是分析的起点，文章第一部分首先探讨了产业协调发展、工业结构高度化的定义和判断标准，并根据研究目的选择了本研究的标准。通过分析，我们从两个角度判断产业发展是否失调：首先，判断产业发展在变动方向上是否合理，即考察产业结构的变动是否符合经济发展的一般规律；然后，将一国或地区的与标准结构进行对比，从静态角度判断产业结构是否合理，在这两个方面均是合理的产业结构才是协调发展的产业，否则，则反之。同时，本研究将生产效率作为判断工业结构高度化的标准。
第二部分是本研究理论基础。文章首先从一般意义上分析了各次产业协调发展与工业结构高度化之间的机理；接着，分别从两个方面分析了第一、二产业协调发展以及第二、三产业协调发展与工业结构升级的机理。通过分析，我们得出结论：产业协调发展能地推动工业结构不断升级。
文章第三部分是实证研究部分，旨在通过对西方发达国家工业化历程的考察为上述理论基础提供更进一步的证据支持。通过对美国、英国和日本三个典型的西方先行工业化国家产业协调发展和工业结构升级的经验分析，我们认为：产业协调发展能推动工业结构升级；否则，则反之。
第四部分从产业协调发展的角度对中国产业结构发展中存在的问题进行了诊断分析。通过对新中国成立以来产业协调发展与工业结构升级经验教训的总结以及对目前中国产业结构存在问题的分析，我们认为：我国产业发展失调现象还比较突出，主要表现在：(1)农业发展基础薄弱、农业结构问题突出以及农业加工水平落后；(2)第二产业成为经济增长主导产业，但工业结构名义高度化较快，实际高度化不足；(3)服务业发展滞后，内部结构不合理，市场竞争不足。
文章第五部分针探讨了我国生产性服务业的与制造业发展的关系及生产性服务业FDI对中国工业结构升级的影响，以促进产业协调发展，推动工业结构不断升级。首先，我们考察了中国生产性服务业对制造业的影响。生产性服务业的发展不仅可以促进第二、三产业协调发展而且可以促进第三产业内部协调发展。鉴于此，本文首先系统分析了不同区域生产性服务业发展的影响因素，有针对性的提出不同的发展策略；在中国，生产性服务业的一半以上是为工业提供服务的，因此，我们进一步深入分析我国生产性服务业与制造业间发展的关系。通过分析发现，目前，在中国二者间长期的发展并没有形成良好的互动关系，是典型的需求带动型发展模式，而短期内，二者却形成一种互动关系；最后，文章研究了生产性服务业FDI对中国工业结构升级的影响。生产性服务业外商直接投资固然可以促进我国生产性服务业整体发展，但吸引外资应能更好的服务于中国工业结构尤其是本土工业升级。通过分析后发现，外商直接投资生产性服务业对外资工业结构高度化的作用远大于对内资工业结构升级的作用。
本研究的创新之处有：(1)文章构建了产业协调发展与工业结构升级的理论框架；(2)首次系统分析了影响中国生产性服务业发展的各种影响因素及不同因素对不同区域生产性服务业发展的差异；(3)运用误差修正模型重新考察了中国生产性服务业与制造业发展间的关系，并得出新的结论；(4)本文首次研究了生产性服务业FDI对中国工业结构升级的影响。
Industrial structure is a key factor to determine the style of economic growth and it isalso an important symbol to measure the level of economic development and the quality ofnational economics. Manufacturing industry structure is the center of industrial structureespecially for developing country in transition period, meanwhile it determines the speedand quality of industrialization and the development of social economy. The approach topromote the continuous industrial structure upgrading is a crucial problem which mayinfluence the realization of our country's new industrialization process and smoothtransition of macroeconomic growth, which is also the focus of this dissertation. In orderto solve the problems mentioned above, this dissertation builds a basic theoreticalframework of coordinated industry development and industrial structure upgrading. Basedon the framework,the author analyze the current situation of industrial structure of Chinaand the problems remained. How to promote the productive service to realize thecoordinated development of industry structure is also analyzed.
To identify the standard of coordinated development of industry and manufacturingindustry structure upgrading is the basis of this research. The first section discusses thedefinition and standard of industry structure coordinated development and manufacturingindustry structure upgrading, in addition chooses a standard according to the research goal.Througn the analysis, the author made a judgment from two aspects about whether theindustry structure is off balance. Firstly, the rationality of the industry structure'stransforming direction, which must conform to the general rule of economic development,should be judged. Then the structure of a country or a region should be compared with thestandard structure to determine the rationality of the structure from the static aspect. Thereasonable structure should fulfill the two requests at the same time. Meanwhile,productivity is regarded as the standard of upgrading manufacturing industry structure.
The second section is the theoretical basis of this study. Firstly, the article hasanalyzed the mechanism between industrial coordinated developments and upgradingmanufacturing industry structure from a general view. Then the author separately analyzes the mechanism on coordinated development between the first industry and the secondaryindustry as well as the secondary industry and tertiary industry. Finally a conclusion isreached that coordinated development of industry can promote continuous upgradingmanufacturing industry structure.
The third section is the empirical research. It aims to provide further evidence toprove the theoretical basis mentioned by summarizing the expanding industrial structureand upgrading manufacturing industry structure experience in Western developedcountries such as United States, Britain and Japan. It is concluded that the coordinateddevelopment of industry will promote the upgrading of manufacturing industrial structureand vice versa.
The problems remained in the expansion of Chinese industrial structure are analyzedin the fourth section. Experience has been learnt from the development of industrialstructure and upgrading manufacturing industry structure since 1949. The author analyzesthe problem of industrial structure at the present time as well. The conclusions are asfollows: (1) the foundation of agricultural development is rather weak. The main problemis the underdevelopment of agricultural industrialization. (2) The secondary industry is thedominant industry of our economy. But its proportion of production value has been toolarge, while its productive efficiency has been comparatively small. (3) The share of thetertiary industry is much lower than required. Its internal structure is unsatisfactory andmarket competition is rather scarce.
The fifth section of this article explores on how to boost tertiary industries in Chinain order to promote coordinated development of industrial structure and upgrademanufacturing industry structure. Some crucial factors are found in producer services inorder to provide some policies to boost it. So the author analyzes influential factors inproducer services of Eastern, Middle and Western regions, and some suggestions are given.Now productive services have been employed by at least half of the secondary industry inChina. Then we further investigate the linkage between manufacturing industry andproducer services. The results showe that producer services industry and manufacturingindustry have unilateralism causality in the long term. However they have bidirectionalcausalities in short term.
Finally, this section studies the main influence of productive service FDI to the upgrading of Chinese industrial structure. It is true that the productive service FDI canpromote the whole development of productive industry, the importing of foreign capitalshould have more positive effect on industry structure, especially on local industryupgrade. And the conclusion was reached that the FDI's effect on foreign industrystructure upgrading is more than the effect on the native one.
There are four innovations in this dissertation: (1) the basic theoretical frameworkhas been built between coordinated development and upgrading of manufacturing industrystructure. (2) It is the first article that has systemically analyzed every kind of influencingfactor which affects producer services industry in China. (3)the author reinvestigate thelinkage between manufacturing industry and producer services with the error-correctionmodel, which shows different results.(4) the impacts of the producer services sector'sFDI on upgrading of manufacturing industry structure is also analyzed for the first time in.this dissertation.
引文
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