城市水循环系统发展规划与评价研究
|
摘要
水资源是人类赖以生存的不可替代的物质基础,是城市社会经济发展的重要保障。然而随着城市规模的不断扩大,水资源短缺问题日趋严重,水环境质量的恶化制约了城市的发展和人民生活水平的提高。应以可持续发展的战略高度对城市水循环系统进行科学的建设,合理配置各种水资源,并采用适宜的评价方法对城市水资源可持续利用系统进行定量分析和评价。
本文以城市水循环系统为研究对象,探讨了在可持续发展理论原则下的城市水循环系统发展规划与评价体系研究的若干问题。在系统分析城市水资源需求结构与变化特点的基础上,科学的预测城市需水量,运用价值工程理论制定了城市水循环系统的可持续发展性的评价指标体系,构建了城市水循环系统的不确定规划模型。
本文针对城市的用水结构特点和影响因素,提出了对城市需水量进行预测的综合性方法。采用规范指标法、季节指数平滑法以及PSO-BP算法等方法对城市的综合生活需水量进行预测,采用万元产值耗水量指标法和单位用地耗水量法等对工业需水量进行预测,并对各种预测方法进行了对比分析,为进行城市水循环系统规划提供了依据。
本文构建了的城市水循环系统可持续发展性评价指标体系。基于价值工程理论,将城市水循环系统可持续发展水平(价值)分为功能和成本两部分,针对城市水循环系统发展的各个环节,构建了相应的评价指标,并采用FANP分析方法分析了城市水循环系统的运行结构特点以及相互影响关系。
本文基于城市需水量的随机变化特性,构建了城市水循环系统的不确定规划模型。依据可持续发展原理的规划原则,在规划模型中综合考虑的经济、社会与环境的协调性,构建了多目标规划模型。采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟模型中的不确定变量,并将其嵌入改进的非支配排序遗传算法,对模型进行求解。
本文以华北某沿海城市的水循环系统为实例案例,综合运用相关的理论知识与研究成果,对该规划城市的水循环系统进行了可持续发展性评价,并通过构建与求解规划模型,为该城市的水循环系统的科学建设提供有效的决策支持。
Water resource is the irreplaceable material basis for human being and important supply for the economic development of cities. However, with the continuous expansion of size of city, water shortage becomes a more and more serious problem. The deterioration of water quality becomes the limit for urban development and the improvement of living standards of the people. The water cycle system should be built with the sustainable development strategy. The water resource from different sources should be distributed rationally and the sustainable development of the water cycle system should be evaluated with suitable methods.
Taking city water cycle system as the research target, the issues of its development planning and evaluation index system were discussed with the sustainable development strategy in this paper. With the systematic analysis of urban water demand structure and the characteristics of its changes, the urban water demand was forecasted. The evaluation index system of city water cycle system was developed with the theory of value engineering and the uncertain programming model was build for the sustainable development.
An integrated method for forecasting the urban water demands was proposed in this paper based on its structural features and influencing factors. Standard index method, seasonal index smoothness method and PSO-BP algorithm were used to forecast the urban general water demand. The methods of water consumption index for unit GDP and unit land usage were used to forecast the industrial water demand. The analysis and comparison were conducted for the various forecasting methods. The prediction of the urban water demand by the integrated method ban be used as the basis for the development planning of the water cycle system.
The evaluation index system was built for the sustainable development of city water cycle system in this paper. Based on the value engineering theory, the level (value) of the sustainable development of city water cycle system was divided into two parts, function and cost. The evaluation indexes were built corresponding to the relative aspects of the system development. The structural characteristics of the system operation and their interactive relations were analyzed with FANP analysis method.
Based on the stochastic variation characteristic of the urban water demand, the uncertain programming model was build for the city water cycle system development. Based on the planning principles for sustainable development, a multi-objective programming model was build, taking the economic, social and environmental aspects into account. The uncertain variables in the planning model were simulated with Monte Carlo method. Then the planning model was solved with the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithms embed with Monte Carlo method.
A city water cycle system of a coastal city in north China was used as a case study in this paper. The relevant theoretical knowledge and methods were applied in the development planning, which includes the evaluation of the sustainable development level and the construction and solving of the planning model. The methods applied in this paper could provide effective decision support for the water cycle system.
本文以城市水循环系统为研究对象,探讨了在可持续发展理论原则下的城市水循环系统发展规划与评价体系研究的若干问题。在系统分析城市水资源需求结构与变化特点的基础上,科学的预测城市需水量,运用价值工程理论制定了城市水循环系统的可持续发展性的评价指标体系,构建了城市水循环系统的不确定规划模型。
本文针对城市的用水结构特点和影响因素,提出了对城市需水量进行预测的综合性方法。采用规范指标法、季节指数平滑法以及PSO-BP算法等方法对城市的综合生活需水量进行预测,采用万元产值耗水量指标法和单位用地耗水量法等对工业需水量进行预测,并对各种预测方法进行了对比分析,为进行城市水循环系统规划提供了依据。
本文构建了的城市水循环系统可持续发展性评价指标体系。基于价值工程理论,将城市水循环系统可持续发展水平(价值)分为功能和成本两部分,针对城市水循环系统发展的各个环节,构建了相应的评价指标,并采用FANP分析方法分析了城市水循环系统的运行结构特点以及相互影响关系。
本文基于城市需水量的随机变化特性,构建了城市水循环系统的不确定规划模型。依据可持续发展原理的规划原则,在规划模型中综合考虑的经济、社会与环境的协调性,构建了多目标规划模型。采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟模型中的不确定变量,并将其嵌入改进的非支配排序遗传算法,对模型进行求解。
本文以华北某沿海城市的水循环系统为实例案例,综合运用相关的理论知识与研究成果,对该规划城市的水循环系统进行了可持续发展性评价,并通过构建与求解规划模型,为该城市的水循环系统的科学建设提供有效的决策支持。
Water resource is the irreplaceable material basis for human being and important supply for the economic development of cities. However, with the continuous expansion of size of city, water shortage becomes a more and more serious problem. The deterioration of water quality becomes the limit for urban development and the improvement of living standards of the people. The water cycle system should be built with the sustainable development strategy. The water resource from different sources should be distributed rationally and the sustainable development of the water cycle system should be evaluated with suitable methods.
Taking city water cycle system as the research target, the issues of its development planning and evaluation index system were discussed with the sustainable development strategy in this paper. With the systematic analysis of urban water demand structure and the characteristics of its changes, the urban water demand was forecasted. The evaluation index system of city water cycle system was developed with the theory of value engineering and the uncertain programming model was build for the sustainable development.
An integrated method for forecasting the urban water demands was proposed in this paper based on its structural features and influencing factors. Standard index method, seasonal index smoothness method and PSO-BP algorithm were used to forecast the urban general water demand. The methods of water consumption index for unit GDP and unit land usage were used to forecast the industrial water demand. The analysis and comparison were conducted for the various forecasting methods. The prediction of the urban water demand by the integrated method ban be used as the basis for the development planning of the water cycle system.
The evaluation index system was built for the sustainable development of city water cycle system in this paper. Based on the value engineering theory, the level (value) of the sustainable development of city water cycle system was divided into two parts, function and cost. The evaluation indexes were built corresponding to the relative aspects of the system development. The structural characteristics of the system operation and their interactive relations were analyzed with FANP analysis method.
Based on the stochastic variation characteristic of the urban water demand, the uncertain programming model was build for the city water cycle system development. Based on the planning principles for sustainable development, a multi-objective programming model was build, taking the economic, social and environmental aspects into account. The uncertain variables in the planning model were simulated with Monte Carlo method. Then the planning model was solved with the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithms embed with Monte Carlo method.
A city water cycle system of a coastal city in north China was used as a case study in this paper. The relevant theoretical knowledge and methods were applied in the development planning, which includes the evaluation of the sustainable development level and the construction and solving of the planning model. The methods applied in this paper could provide effective decision support for the water cycle system.
引文
[1].王秀艳,朱坦,王启山,等.城市水循环途径及影响分析[J],城市环境与城市生态,2003,16(4): 54-56.
[2].陈康贵,伊武军.城市复合水循环与水环境恢复[J],南通职业大学学报,2003,17(4): 55-58.
[3].张杰,熊必永.城市水系统健康循环的实施策略[J],北京工业大学学报,2004,30(2): 185-189.
[4].刘俊良,王鹏飞,臧景红,等.城市用水健康循环及可持续城市水管理[J].中国给水排水,2003,19(1): 29-33.
[5].黄守宏.“量水而行”指导国民经济发展[J],中国水利,2002(10),(网络版)
[6].王丹妮,王俭.城市生态环境质量评价研究[J]. 2007,6: 166-167.
[7].张坤民,杜斌.环境可持续性指数:尝试评价国家和地区环境可持续能力的指标[J].环境保护,2002,3: 47-52.
[8].邵青.水处理及循环再利用技术[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004.
[9].钱易,刘昌明,邵益生.中国城市水资源可持续开发利用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.
[10].许向君.城市水务系统循环规律与评价指标体系研究[D].山东农业大学2007.
[11].陈家琦,王浩,杨小柳.水资源学[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[12].陈志恺.中国水利百科全书,第3卷[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1990.
[13].丁惠英,丁民.国外城市水务管理经验分析[J].中国水利,2003,51-52.
[14].李春.国外水资源的保护与管理[J].环保视窗,2002,101(4): 71-72.
[15].李碧清,高洁,白宇,等.城市污水处理深度处理与流域健康水循环[J].低温建筑技术,2004,10(4): 76-68.
[16].林洪孝,彭绪民.论城市水务系统构成与管理发展方向[J].经济体制改革,2000,6:151-155.
[17].张杰,陈立学,熊必永,等.我国水环境与水循环的健康之路[J].给水排水2005,5(3): 76-68.
[18]. Shelef G, Azov Y. Coming era of intensive wastewater reuse in the Mediterranean region[J]. Water Science and Technology. 1996, 33(10-11): 115-125.
[19]. Barbagallo S,Cirelli G L,Indelicato S. Wastewater reuse in Italy[J]. Water Science and Technology. 2001,43(10):43-50.
[20]. Bazza M. Wastewater recycling and reuse in the Near East Region:Experience and issues[J]. Water Science and Technology. 2003, 3(4): 33-50.
[21]. Gardner E A. Some examples of Water recycling in AAustralian urban environments:A step towards environmental sustainability[J]. Water Science and Technology. 2003, 3(4):21-31.
[22].刘俊良.城市节制用水规划原理与技术[M].北京:化学上业出版社,2003.
[23].钱正英,张光斗.中国可持续发展水资源战略研究综合报告[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000.
[24].汪培庄.模糊集合论及其应用[M].上海科学技术出版社,1999.
[25].尤祥瑜,谢新民,孙仕军,等.我国水资源配置模型研究现状与展望[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2004,(2): 131-140
[26].卢华友,郭元裕,沈佩君.义乌市水资源系统分解协调决策模型研究[J].水利学报,1997,(6): 40-47
[27].辛玉深,张志君.长春市城市水资源优化管理模型研究[J].东北水利水电,2000,(l):1-17.
[28].吴险峰,王丽萍.枣庄城市复杂多水源供水优化配置模型[J].武汉水利电力大学学报,2000,(1):30-32.
[29].桂萍,孔彦鸿,刘广奇,等.生态安全格局视角下的城市水系统规划[J].城市规划, 2009,4: 61-66.
[30].潘文斌,唐涛,邓红兵,等.湖泊生态系统服务功能评估初探——以湖北保安湖为例[J].应用生态学报,2002,13(10):1315-1318.
[31].鲁春霞,谢高地,成升魁,等.水利工程对河流生态系统服务功能的影响评价方法初探[J].应用生态学报,2003,14(5):803-807.
[32].黄瑜,谭克修.城市小水系生态系统服务功能及价值评估方法[J].城市规划汇刊,2004,1:83-87.
[33].侯小阁,尚金城.长春市水环境生态系统服务功能价值评估[J].江苏环境科技,2003,16(2):24-27.
[34].赵军.上海城市河流生态系统服务的条件价值评估[J].环境科学,2005,26(2):5-10.
[35].杨晓明.区域性水资源可持续再生系统研究[J].甘肃水利水电技术,2006,9(3):257-258.
[36].陈家琦.可持续的水资源开发与利用[J].自然资源学报,1995,10(3):253-257.
[37]. Daubert J,Young R. Recreational demands for maintaining instream flows:a contingent valuation approach[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economic,1981,63(4):666-675.
[38].谢更新.水环境中的不确定性理论与方法研究——以三峡水库为例[D].长沙:湖南大学,2004.
[39]. Chen J, Wheater H S. Identification and uncertainty analysis of soil water retention models using lysimeter data[J]. Water Resources Research. 1999, 35(8): 2401-2414.
[40].姜云超,南忠仁.不确定性水质模型及其研究进展[J].环境污染与防治, 2007, 29(9): 713-717.
[41]. Walker W E, Harremo?s P,van der Sluijs J P, et a1. Defining uncertainty a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support[J]. Integrated Assessment, 2003, 4(1): 5-17.
[42]. Beck M B. Principle of modeling[J]. Water Science and Technology, 1991, 24: 1-8.
[43]. Melching C S, Yen B C, Wenzel H G.A reliability estimation in modeling watershed runoff with uncertainties[J]. Water Resources Research, 1990, 26(10): 2277-2286.
[44]. Brown J D.Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief[J].Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers,2004,29(3):367-381.
[45].薛晗.不确定规划的群体智能计算[D].国防科学技术大学,2010.
[46].丁晶,邓育存.随机水文学[M].成都:成都科学技大学出版社,1988.
[47].李延峰,不确定优化方法在能源规划中的应用[D].北京:华北电力大学,2009.
[48]. Liu B. Uncertain Programming[M]. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1999.
[49]. Liu B. Theory and Practice of Uncertain Programming[M] . Heidelberg: Physica Verlag, 2002.
[50]. Charnes A, Cooper W W. Chance-constrained programming[J]. Management Science, 1959, 6(1): 73-79.
[51]. Iwamura K, Liu B. Dependent-chance integer programming applied to capital budgeting[J] . Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 1999, 42(2): 117-127.
[52]. Lai K K, Liu B, Peng J. Vehicle routing problem with fuzzy travel times and its genetic algorithm[R] . Beijing: Department of Mathemat ical Sciences, Tsinghua University, 2001.
[53]. Liu B, Lai K K. Stochastic programming models for vehical routing problems[J] . Asian Information Science Life, 2002, 1(1): 13-28.
[54]. Gao J, Liu B. New primitive chance measures of fuzzy random event[J]. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 2001, 3(4): 527-531.
[55].高雷阜.不确定规划模型及其算法研究[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2003 33(3):413-415.
[56]. Dantzig G B. Linear programming under uncertainty[J]. Management science, 1955, 1: 197-206.
[57]. Belhnan R E, Zadeh L A. Decision making in a fuzzy environment[J]. Management Science, 1970, 17: 141-164.
[58]. Yazenin A V. On the problem of possibilistic optimization[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1996, 81, 133-140.
[59].邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M] .武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[60]. Kwakernaak H. Fuzzy random variables-I[J]. Information Sciences, 1978, 15: 1-29.
[61]. Liu Y K,and Liu B. Random fuzzy programming with chance measures defined by fuzzy integrals[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 2002, 36: 509-524.
[62]. Liu B. Random fuzzy dependent-chance programming and its hybrid intelligent algorithm[J]. Information Science. 2002, 161: 259-271.
[63]. Liu B. Dependent chance Programming: A Class Of Stochastic optimization[J]. Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 1997, 199(1): 293-311.
[64].杨妍.智能计算算法的若干研究与应用[D],华东理工大学, 2009.
[65].孙增圻,张再兴,邓志坚.智能控制理论与技术[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 1997.
[66].尹学康,韩德宏.城市需水量预测[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2006.
[67]. Jowitt P W. Demand Forecasting For Water Distrituion Systems[J]. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 9(2): 105-121.
[68]. Shvars L, Feldman M. Forecasting Hourly Water Demand of Pattern Approach[J]. Water Supply. 2003, 4(5): 168-172.
[69]. Zhou S L, McMahon T A. Forecasting operational demand for an urban water supply zone[J]. Hydrology. 2002, 259: 189-202.
[70]. Day D, Howe C. Forecasting peak demand-what do we need to know?[J]. Water Supply. 2003, 3(3): 177-184.
[71]. Brekke L, Larsen M D, Ausburn M, et a1. Suburban Water Demand Modeling Using Step wise Regression[J]. AWWA. 2002, 94 (10): 108-112.
[72]. Jain A, Ormsbee E. Short-term water demand forecast modeling techniques: Conventional methods versus AI[J]. AWWA. 2002, 94(7): 64-72.
[73]. Mays L W, Tung Y K. Hydrosystem Engineering and Management[M]. USA: McGraw-Hill Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 2002.
[74]. Pulido-Calvo I, Montesinos P, Roldán J, et a1. Linear regressions and neural approaches to water demand forecasting in irrigation districts with telemetry systems[J]. Biosystems Engineering, 2007:97(2): 283-293.
[75].张洪国,赵洪宾,李恩辕.城市用水量灰色预测[J].哈尔滨建筑大学学报. 1998, 31(3): 32-37.
[76].徐洪福,袁一星,赵洪宾.灰色预测模型在年用水量预测中的应用[J].哈尔滨建筑大学学报[J]. 2001, 34(4): 61-64.
[77].袁一星,兰宏娟,赵洪宾,等.张爱民.城市用水量BP网络预测模型.哈尔滨建筑大学学报[J]. 2002,35(3):56-58.
[78].刘洪波,张宏伟,田林.人工神经网络法预测时用水量[J].中国给水排水. 2002, 18(12): 39-41.
[79].陈磊,张土乔,基于最小二乘支持向量机的时用水量预测模型[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006, 38(9): 1528-1531.
[80]. Kalogirou S A. Applications of artificial neural-networks for energy systems[J]. Applied Energy , 2000, 67 (1): 17-35.
[81].阎平凡,张长水.人工神经网络与模拟进化计算[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2000.
[82]. Billings R B, Jones C V. Forecasting urban water demand[M]. USA, AWWA, 2008.
[83]. Beccali M, Cellura M, Lo B V, et al. Forecasting daily urban electric load profiles using artificial neural networks[J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2004, 45(18): 2879 - 2900.
[84].杨道辉,马光文,刘起方,等.基于粒子群优化算法的BP网络模型在径流预测中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2006,25(2): 65-72.
[85].田丽,夏新运,蒋慧,等.基于PSO-BP混合算法的短期电力负荷预测[J].自动化与仪器仪表,2009,2: 40-45.
[86].王亮,张宏伟,岳琳,刘星. PSO-BP模型在城市用水量短期预测中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,9: 165-170.
[87].姜彦立,周新华.季节性指数平滑法在城市用水量预测中的应用研究[J].科学技术与工程,2007,8(4): 1666-1669.
[88].门玉明,晏长根.季节性指数平滑法在地下水位预报中的应用[J].工程勘察,2000,2: 25-27.
[89]. Kennedy J, Eberhart R C. Particle swarm optimization[C]. IEEE int'l conf. on neural networks Vol. IV. IEEE service center, Piscataway, NJ, 1995: 1942-1948.
[90]. Kannana S, Mary S, Slochanal R, et al. Application of particle swarm optimization technique and its variants to generation expansion planning problem[J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 2004, 70(8): 203-210.
[91]. Kabat P. The role of biosphere feed backs in the hydrological cycle,the IGBP-BAHC Special issue[J],Global Change Newsletter,1999,9: 39-45.
[92].曹国圣.城市水循环经济发展的经济机制研究[J].水利经济,2010,28(1):33-36.
[93].曹国圣.城市水循环经济发展的制度设计[J].现代管理科学,2008,12:81-82.
[94].曹国圣.城市水循环经济生态产业链的构建与运行[J].水利经济,2009,27(1):32-35.
[95].陈庆秋,薛建枫,周永章.珠江三角洲城市水系统的可持续性评价[J].中国给水排水,2005,21(1):101-103.
[96].李树平,刘遂庆.城市水系统的可持续管理[J].城市问题,2007, 8:71-74.
[97].刘星,石炼.城市可持续水生态系统初探——以中新天津生态城为例[C],城市发展与规划国际论坛论文集,2008.
[98].邱云美.基于价值工程的生态旅游资源评价研究——以浙江省丽水市为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(12):2158-2167.
[99].王洪玉,于惠春.基于价值工程理论的东北地区水资源保护的法律思考[J].价值工程,2008, 8:78-80.
[100].岳琳,张宏伟,王亮.粒子群优化算法在城市需水量预测中的应用[J].天津大学学报, 2007, 40(6): 742-746.
[101]. Yi D, Ge X R. An improved PSO-based ANN with simulated annealing technique [J]. Neurocomputing, 2005, 63 (11):527 -533.
[102]. Saaty T L. Decisions with the Analytic Network Process(ANP)[C]. University of Pittsburgh,USA,USAHP’96 , CANADA.
[103].王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[104].许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1988.
[105].孙宏才.介绍一种新的决策方法ANP[C].“科学技术面向新世纪”学术年会,中国科学技术出版社,1998.
[106].黄鲁成,王吉武,卢文光.基于ANP的新技术产业化潜力评价研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2007, 4: 122-125.
[107].贺北方,周丽,马细霞,等.基于遗传箅法的区域水资源优化配置模型[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(3):10-12.
[108].陈南祥,贾明敏.崔进涛,等.基于规则的水资源模拟配置模型[J].灌溉排水学报,2005,24(4):22-25.
[109].陈南祥.李跃鹏,徐晨光,等.基于多目标遗传算法的水资源优化配置[J].水利学报,2006,37(3):308-313.
[110].徐大明,康龙云等.基于NSGA-Ⅱ的风光互补独立供电系统多目标优化[J].太阳能学报,2006, 27(6): 593-598.
[111].高媛.非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA)的研究与应用[D].杭州:浙江大学,2006.
[112].左其亭,陈曦.面向可持续发展的水资源规划与管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2003.
[113].刘宝琔,随机规划与模糊规划[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 1998.
[114]. Vajda S. Probabilistic Programming [M]. New York: Academic Press, 1972.
[115].谢涛,陈火旺,多目标优化与决策问题的演化算法闭[J].中国工程科学,2002, 4 (2):59 -68.
[116].王小平,曹立明.遗传算法——理论、应用与软件实现[M],西安:西安交通大学出版社,2002
[117]. Srinivas N,Deb K. Multiobjective function optmiization using nondominated sorting genetic algorithm[J]. Evolutoinay ComPuatrion, 1995, 2(3): 221-248.
[118]. Deb K, Agrawal S, Pratap A, et al. A fast elitist nondominated sorting genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimization: NSGA-Ⅱ[C].Proc of the Parallel Problem Solving from Nature VI Conf, Paris, 2000: 849-858.
[119]. Deb K,Pratap A,Agarwal S, et al. A fast elitist multi-objective Genetic Algorithm: NSGA-II[J]. IEEE Transaction on Evolutionary Computation, 2002, 6(2): 182-197.
[120].徐钟济.蒙特卡罗方法[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社, 1985.
[121]. Mulvey J M, Ruszczynski A. A new scenario decomposition method for large scale stochastic optimization[J]. Operations research, 1995, 43: 477-490.
[122].王明春,唐万生,刘鑫,等.基于DNA遗传算法的随机整数规划期望值模型求解[J].数学的实践与认识, 2009, 39(4): 121-127.
[123].严煦世,赵洪宾.给水管网理论和计算[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1986.
[124].余有明,刘玉树,阎光伟.遗传算法的编码理论与应用[J].计算机工程与应用, 2006, 03:86-89.
[125]. Janikow C Z, Michalewicz Z. An Experimental Comparison of Binary and Floating Point Representations in Genetic Algorithms[C]. 31-36,Richard K. Belew, Lashon B. Booker (Eds.): Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Genetic Algorithms, San Diego, CA, USA, July 1991.
[126]. Deb K. Multi-Speed Gearbox Design Using, Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms[J]. Mechanical Design,2003, 125: 609-619.
[127].程小娟,随机规划在输水管及树状管网优化中的应用[D].西安:西安理工大学,2005.
[2].陈康贵,伊武军.城市复合水循环与水环境恢复[J],南通职业大学学报,2003,17(4): 55-58.
[3].张杰,熊必永.城市水系统健康循环的实施策略[J],北京工业大学学报,2004,30(2): 185-189.
[4].刘俊良,王鹏飞,臧景红,等.城市用水健康循环及可持续城市水管理[J].中国给水排水,2003,19(1): 29-33.
[5].黄守宏.“量水而行”指导国民经济发展[J],中国水利,2002(10),(网络版)
[6].王丹妮,王俭.城市生态环境质量评价研究[J]. 2007,6: 166-167.
[7].张坤民,杜斌.环境可持续性指数:尝试评价国家和地区环境可持续能力的指标[J].环境保护,2002,3: 47-52.
[8].邵青.水处理及循环再利用技术[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004.
[9].钱易,刘昌明,邵益生.中国城市水资源可持续开发利用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.
[10].许向君.城市水务系统循环规律与评价指标体系研究[D].山东农业大学2007.
[11].陈家琦,王浩,杨小柳.水资源学[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[12].陈志恺.中国水利百科全书,第3卷[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1990.
[13].丁惠英,丁民.国外城市水务管理经验分析[J].中国水利,2003,51-52.
[14].李春.国外水资源的保护与管理[J].环保视窗,2002,101(4): 71-72.
[15].李碧清,高洁,白宇,等.城市污水处理深度处理与流域健康水循环[J].低温建筑技术,2004,10(4): 76-68.
[16].林洪孝,彭绪民.论城市水务系统构成与管理发展方向[J].经济体制改革,2000,6:151-155.
[17].张杰,陈立学,熊必永,等.我国水环境与水循环的健康之路[J].给水排水2005,5(3): 76-68.
[18]. Shelef G, Azov Y. Coming era of intensive wastewater reuse in the Mediterranean region[J]. Water Science and Technology. 1996, 33(10-11): 115-125.
[19]. Barbagallo S,Cirelli G L,Indelicato S. Wastewater reuse in Italy[J]. Water Science and Technology. 2001,43(10):43-50.
[20]. Bazza M. Wastewater recycling and reuse in the Near East Region:Experience and issues[J]. Water Science and Technology. 2003, 3(4): 33-50.
[21]. Gardner E A. Some examples of Water recycling in AAustralian urban environments:A step towards environmental sustainability[J]. Water Science and Technology. 2003, 3(4):21-31.
[22].刘俊良.城市节制用水规划原理与技术[M].北京:化学上业出版社,2003.
[23].钱正英,张光斗.中国可持续发展水资源战略研究综合报告[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000.
[24].汪培庄.模糊集合论及其应用[M].上海科学技术出版社,1999.
[25].尤祥瑜,谢新民,孙仕军,等.我国水资源配置模型研究现状与展望[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2004,(2): 131-140
[26].卢华友,郭元裕,沈佩君.义乌市水资源系统分解协调决策模型研究[J].水利学报,1997,(6): 40-47
[27].辛玉深,张志君.长春市城市水资源优化管理模型研究[J].东北水利水电,2000,(l):1-17.
[28].吴险峰,王丽萍.枣庄城市复杂多水源供水优化配置模型[J].武汉水利电力大学学报,2000,(1):30-32.
[29].桂萍,孔彦鸿,刘广奇,等.生态安全格局视角下的城市水系统规划[J].城市规划, 2009,4: 61-66.
[30].潘文斌,唐涛,邓红兵,等.湖泊生态系统服务功能评估初探——以湖北保安湖为例[J].应用生态学报,2002,13(10):1315-1318.
[31].鲁春霞,谢高地,成升魁,等.水利工程对河流生态系统服务功能的影响评价方法初探[J].应用生态学报,2003,14(5):803-807.
[32].黄瑜,谭克修.城市小水系生态系统服务功能及价值评估方法[J].城市规划汇刊,2004,1:83-87.
[33].侯小阁,尚金城.长春市水环境生态系统服务功能价值评估[J].江苏环境科技,2003,16(2):24-27.
[34].赵军.上海城市河流生态系统服务的条件价值评估[J].环境科学,2005,26(2):5-10.
[35].杨晓明.区域性水资源可持续再生系统研究[J].甘肃水利水电技术,2006,9(3):257-258.
[36].陈家琦.可持续的水资源开发与利用[J].自然资源学报,1995,10(3):253-257.
[37]. Daubert J,Young R. Recreational demands for maintaining instream flows:a contingent valuation approach[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economic,1981,63(4):666-675.
[38].谢更新.水环境中的不确定性理论与方法研究——以三峡水库为例[D].长沙:湖南大学,2004.
[39]. Chen J, Wheater H S. Identification and uncertainty analysis of soil water retention models using lysimeter data[J]. Water Resources Research. 1999, 35(8): 2401-2414.
[40].姜云超,南忠仁.不确定性水质模型及其研究进展[J].环境污染与防治, 2007, 29(9): 713-717.
[41]. Walker W E, Harremo?s P,van der Sluijs J P, et a1. Defining uncertainty a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support[J]. Integrated Assessment, 2003, 4(1): 5-17.
[42]. Beck M B. Principle of modeling[J]. Water Science and Technology, 1991, 24: 1-8.
[43]. Melching C S, Yen B C, Wenzel H G.A reliability estimation in modeling watershed runoff with uncertainties[J]. Water Resources Research, 1990, 26(10): 2277-2286.
[44]. Brown J D.Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief[J].Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers,2004,29(3):367-381.
[45].薛晗.不确定规划的群体智能计算[D].国防科学技术大学,2010.
[46].丁晶,邓育存.随机水文学[M].成都:成都科学技大学出版社,1988.
[47].李延峰,不确定优化方法在能源规划中的应用[D].北京:华北电力大学,2009.
[48]. Liu B. Uncertain Programming[M]. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1999.
[49]. Liu B. Theory and Practice of Uncertain Programming[M] . Heidelberg: Physica Verlag, 2002.
[50]. Charnes A, Cooper W W. Chance-constrained programming[J]. Management Science, 1959, 6(1): 73-79.
[51]. Iwamura K, Liu B. Dependent-chance integer programming applied to capital budgeting[J] . Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 1999, 42(2): 117-127.
[52]. Lai K K, Liu B, Peng J. Vehicle routing problem with fuzzy travel times and its genetic algorithm[R] . Beijing: Department of Mathemat ical Sciences, Tsinghua University, 2001.
[53]. Liu B, Lai K K. Stochastic programming models for vehical routing problems[J] . Asian Information Science Life, 2002, 1(1): 13-28.
[54]. Gao J, Liu B. New primitive chance measures of fuzzy random event[J]. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 2001, 3(4): 527-531.
[55].高雷阜.不确定规划模型及其算法研究[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2003 33(3):413-415.
[56]. Dantzig G B. Linear programming under uncertainty[J]. Management science, 1955, 1: 197-206.
[57]. Belhnan R E, Zadeh L A. Decision making in a fuzzy environment[J]. Management Science, 1970, 17: 141-164.
[58]. Yazenin A V. On the problem of possibilistic optimization[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1996, 81, 133-140.
[59].邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M] .武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[60]. Kwakernaak H. Fuzzy random variables-I[J]. Information Sciences, 1978, 15: 1-29.
[61]. Liu Y K,and Liu B. Random fuzzy programming with chance measures defined by fuzzy integrals[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 2002, 36: 509-524.
[62]. Liu B. Random fuzzy dependent-chance programming and its hybrid intelligent algorithm[J]. Information Science. 2002, 161: 259-271.
[63]. Liu B. Dependent chance Programming: A Class Of Stochastic optimization[J]. Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 1997, 199(1): 293-311.
[64].杨妍.智能计算算法的若干研究与应用[D],华东理工大学, 2009.
[65].孙增圻,张再兴,邓志坚.智能控制理论与技术[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 1997.
[66].尹学康,韩德宏.城市需水量预测[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2006.
[67]. Jowitt P W. Demand Forecasting For Water Distrituion Systems[J]. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 9(2): 105-121.
[68]. Shvars L, Feldman M. Forecasting Hourly Water Demand of Pattern Approach[J]. Water Supply. 2003, 4(5): 168-172.
[69]. Zhou S L, McMahon T A. Forecasting operational demand for an urban water supply zone[J]. Hydrology. 2002, 259: 189-202.
[70]. Day D, Howe C. Forecasting peak demand-what do we need to know?[J]. Water Supply. 2003, 3(3): 177-184.
[71]. Brekke L, Larsen M D, Ausburn M, et a1. Suburban Water Demand Modeling Using Step wise Regression[J]. AWWA. 2002, 94 (10): 108-112.
[72]. Jain A, Ormsbee E. Short-term water demand forecast modeling techniques: Conventional methods versus AI[J]. AWWA. 2002, 94(7): 64-72.
[73]. Mays L W, Tung Y K. Hydrosystem Engineering and Management[M]. USA: McGraw-Hill Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 2002.
[74]. Pulido-Calvo I, Montesinos P, Roldán J, et a1. Linear regressions and neural approaches to water demand forecasting in irrigation districts with telemetry systems[J]. Biosystems Engineering, 2007:97(2): 283-293.
[75].张洪国,赵洪宾,李恩辕.城市用水量灰色预测[J].哈尔滨建筑大学学报. 1998, 31(3): 32-37.
[76].徐洪福,袁一星,赵洪宾.灰色预测模型在年用水量预测中的应用[J].哈尔滨建筑大学学报[J]. 2001, 34(4): 61-64.
[77].袁一星,兰宏娟,赵洪宾,等.张爱民.城市用水量BP网络预测模型.哈尔滨建筑大学学报[J]. 2002,35(3):56-58.
[78].刘洪波,张宏伟,田林.人工神经网络法预测时用水量[J].中国给水排水. 2002, 18(12): 39-41.
[79].陈磊,张土乔,基于最小二乘支持向量机的时用水量预测模型[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006, 38(9): 1528-1531.
[80]. Kalogirou S A. Applications of artificial neural-networks for energy systems[J]. Applied Energy , 2000, 67 (1): 17-35.
[81].阎平凡,张长水.人工神经网络与模拟进化计算[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2000.
[82]. Billings R B, Jones C V. Forecasting urban water demand[M]. USA, AWWA, 2008.
[83]. Beccali M, Cellura M, Lo B V, et al. Forecasting daily urban electric load profiles using artificial neural networks[J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2004, 45(18): 2879 - 2900.
[84].杨道辉,马光文,刘起方,等.基于粒子群优化算法的BP网络模型在径流预测中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2006,25(2): 65-72.
[85].田丽,夏新运,蒋慧,等.基于PSO-BP混合算法的短期电力负荷预测[J].自动化与仪器仪表,2009,2: 40-45.
[86].王亮,张宏伟,岳琳,刘星. PSO-BP模型在城市用水量短期预测中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,9: 165-170.
[87].姜彦立,周新华.季节性指数平滑法在城市用水量预测中的应用研究[J].科学技术与工程,2007,8(4): 1666-1669.
[88].门玉明,晏长根.季节性指数平滑法在地下水位预报中的应用[J].工程勘察,2000,2: 25-27.
[89]. Kennedy J, Eberhart R C. Particle swarm optimization[C]. IEEE int'l conf. on neural networks Vol. IV. IEEE service center, Piscataway, NJ, 1995: 1942-1948.
[90]. Kannana S, Mary S, Slochanal R, et al. Application of particle swarm optimization technique and its variants to generation expansion planning problem[J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 2004, 70(8): 203-210.
[91]. Kabat P. The role of biosphere feed backs in the hydrological cycle,the IGBP-BAHC Special issue[J],Global Change Newsletter,1999,9: 39-45.
[92].曹国圣.城市水循环经济发展的经济机制研究[J].水利经济,2010,28(1):33-36.
[93].曹国圣.城市水循环经济发展的制度设计[J].现代管理科学,2008,12:81-82.
[94].曹国圣.城市水循环经济生态产业链的构建与运行[J].水利经济,2009,27(1):32-35.
[95].陈庆秋,薛建枫,周永章.珠江三角洲城市水系统的可持续性评价[J].中国给水排水,2005,21(1):101-103.
[96].李树平,刘遂庆.城市水系统的可持续管理[J].城市问题,2007, 8:71-74.
[97].刘星,石炼.城市可持续水生态系统初探——以中新天津生态城为例[C],城市发展与规划国际论坛论文集,2008.
[98].邱云美.基于价值工程的生态旅游资源评价研究——以浙江省丽水市为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(12):2158-2167.
[99].王洪玉,于惠春.基于价值工程理论的东北地区水资源保护的法律思考[J].价值工程,2008, 8:78-80.
[100].岳琳,张宏伟,王亮.粒子群优化算法在城市需水量预测中的应用[J].天津大学学报, 2007, 40(6): 742-746.
[101]. Yi D, Ge X R. An improved PSO-based ANN with simulated annealing technique [J]. Neurocomputing, 2005, 63 (11):527 -533.
[102]. Saaty T L. Decisions with the Analytic Network Process(ANP)[C]. University of Pittsburgh,USA,USAHP’96 , CANADA.
[103].王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[104].许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1988.
[105].孙宏才.介绍一种新的决策方法ANP[C].“科学技术面向新世纪”学术年会,中国科学技术出版社,1998.
[106].黄鲁成,王吉武,卢文光.基于ANP的新技术产业化潜力评价研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2007, 4: 122-125.
[107].贺北方,周丽,马细霞,等.基于遗传箅法的区域水资源优化配置模型[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(3):10-12.
[108].陈南祥,贾明敏.崔进涛,等.基于规则的水资源模拟配置模型[J].灌溉排水学报,2005,24(4):22-25.
[109].陈南祥.李跃鹏,徐晨光,等.基于多目标遗传算法的水资源优化配置[J].水利学报,2006,37(3):308-313.
[110].徐大明,康龙云等.基于NSGA-Ⅱ的风光互补独立供电系统多目标优化[J].太阳能学报,2006, 27(6): 593-598.
[111].高媛.非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA)的研究与应用[D].杭州:浙江大学,2006.
[112].左其亭,陈曦.面向可持续发展的水资源规划与管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2003.
[113].刘宝琔,随机规划与模糊规划[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 1998.
[114]. Vajda S. Probabilistic Programming [M]. New York: Academic Press, 1972.
[115].谢涛,陈火旺,多目标优化与决策问题的演化算法闭[J].中国工程科学,2002, 4 (2):59 -68.
[116].王小平,曹立明.遗传算法——理论、应用与软件实现[M],西安:西安交通大学出版社,2002
[117]. Srinivas N,Deb K. Multiobjective function optmiization using nondominated sorting genetic algorithm[J]. Evolutoinay ComPuatrion, 1995, 2(3): 221-248.
[118]. Deb K, Agrawal S, Pratap A, et al. A fast elitist nondominated sorting genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimization: NSGA-Ⅱ[C].Proc of the Parallel Problem Solving from Nature VI Conf, Paris, 2000: 849-858.
[119]. Deb K,Pratap A,Agarwal S, et al. A fast elitist multi-objective Genetic Algorithm: NSGA-II[J]. IEEE Transaction on Evolutionary Computation, 2002, 6(2): 182-197.
[120].徐钟济.蒙特卡罗方法[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社, 1985.
[121]. Mulvey J M, Ruszczynski A. A new scenario decomposition method for large scale stochastic optimization[J]. Operations research, 1995, 43: 477-490.
[122].王明春,唐万生,刘鑫,等.基于DNA遗传算法的随机整数规划期望值模型求解[J].数学的实践与认识, 2009, 39(4): 121-127.
[123].严煦世,赵洪宾.给水管网理论和计算[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1986.
[124].余有明,刘玉树,阎光伟.遗传算法的编码理论与应用[J].计算机工程与应用, 2006, 03:86-89.
[125]. Janikow C Z, Michalewicz Z. An Experimental Comparison of Binary and Floating Point Representations in Genetic Algorithms[C]. 31-36,Richard K. Belew, Lashon B. Booker (Eds.): Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Genetic Algorithms, San Diego, CA, USA, July 1991.
[126]. Deb K. Multi-Speed Gearbox Design Using, Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms[J]. Mechanical Design,2003, 125: 609-619.
[127].程小娟,随机规划在输水管及树状管网优化中的应用[D].西安:西安理工大学,2005.