FDI对中国工业能源效率的影响研究
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摘要
进入21世纪以来，中国总体经济规模及增长速度已跻身世界前列，然而，能源问题却严重制约中国经济的可持续稳定发展。在未来一段时间，因工业化和城市化进程中国能源消费量及能源消费产生的碳排放还会持续增加。中国政府已向全世界承诺到2020年将碳强度在2005年的基础上减少40%—45%，“十二五”规划也提出要将能源强度降低16%、碳强度降低17%，可见提高能源效率（能源强度的倒数）已经成为中国政府的工作重点。FDI作为国家和地区之间资金流动的主要形式之一，对东道国能源环境产生深刻的影响，尤其是对于那些迫切要求发展经济而放松环境规制吸引外资的国家，外资的进入将会导致一系列的能源环境问题。不过，外资进入东道国可能带来正向的能效技术转移和技术溢出，从而提高东道国的能源效率，作为能源经济学重要假说之一的“FDI能够降低东道国能源强度”是否在中国成立值得深入研究。
2010年，中国实际利用外资金额达到1057.35亿美元，而在过去十年工业部门实际利用外资金额占到全国利用外资的65%左右。同时，工业部门作为中国国民经济的主要“耗能大户”（比重约为70%左右），其能源效率变动将直接影响中国总体能源效率。因此，准确把握FDI对中国工业能源效率影响的大小，传导渠道和差异，对于制定以提高能源效率为核心的外资政策、产业政策和节能减排措施具有重要的现实意义。鉴于此，本文对如下问题展开研究：
1．测算中国内外资工业企业全要素能源效率。采用非参数数据包络分析法，对中国工业36个行业1999—2009年的全要素生产率和全要素能源效率进行测算，并进一步测算和比较28个行业内外资工业企业的全要素能源效率。测算结果表明，不管是外资企业还是内资企业，其全要素能源效率表现都不尽如人意，而且似乎与工业全要素生产率及技术进步的表现不相称。
2．研究FDI技术效应对中国工业能源效率的影响。考虑到技术效应在许多研究中被认为具有较重要的地位，技术效应的方向和大小对于总效应的形成和变化具有较为显著的影响。因此，通过建立理论模型和计量模型，利用中国1999—2008年30个省区工业面板数据，采用静态和动态面板模型集中研究FDI技术效应（包括外资环境收益效应和外资向底线赛跑效应）对中国工业能源效率的影响，同时也对内资企业的国内自主研发、国外技术引进和国内技术购买与工业能源效率之间的关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明，FDI技术效应对中国工业能源强度影响是正面的，FDI技术效应不仅可以降低中国工业能源强度，而且能够降低中国工业能源消费量。
3．研究FDI对中国工业能源效率的影响总效应。通过建立包含能源强度（或能源消费量）分解方程、FDI规模效应方程、FDI结构效应方程、FDI技术效应方程、FDI收入引致的技术效应方程和FDI区位选择方程的联立方程组，采用三阶段最小二乘法实证估计FDI-中国工业能源强度联立方程组，并用弹性分析法计算FDI路径下不同影响效应的大小和方向。结果表明，1999—2008年，外资进入度提高1%，导致工业行业结构高耗能化进而使工业能源强度上升0.1907%，通过直接提高技术水平和间接提高人均收入使工业能源强度分别下降0.3086%和0.0669%，总效应为工业能源强度减少0.1848%。“FDI能够降低东道国能源强度”假说得以成立。
4．研究FDI影响中国工业能源效率的传导渠道。通过界定FDI影响中国工业能源效率的三种传导渠道——水平关联、后向关联和前向关联，以中国工业行业面板数据为研究样本，实证分析FDI影响中国工业能源效率的传导渠道。估计结果表明，外资水平关联效应显著降低工业能源强度；下游行业外资企业与上游行业中间产品供应商的联系渠道显著增加工业能源强度，而上游行业外资企业与下游行业购买商的联系渠道对工业能源强度没有产生显著影响。同时，本文还利用时间序列的脉冲响应函数研究中国工业能源效率的结构份额和效率份额在外资冲击下的传导影响。
最后，在深入研究FDI对中国工业能源效率影响的基础上，从国家层面、区域层面和行业层面提出经济开放条件下提高能源效率的政策建议，如积极利用FDI的技术溢出效应、优化产业结构、鼓励技术创新和加大环境规制力度等。
Since twenty-first century, China's overall economic scale and growth speed havebeen among the forefront of the world, however, the energy problem has seriouslyrestricted the sustainable development of China's economy. In the foreseeable future,energy consumption and carbon emission in China will continue to increase due to theprocess of industrialization and urbanization. China announced that it would aim for a40-45%reduction in carbon intensity between2005and2020as well as a16%reduction in energy intensity and a17%cut in carbon intensity in12th five-year plan,showing that the Chinese government has aimed at improving energy efficiency (theinverse of energy intensity). As one of the main forms of capital flows amongcountries and regions, FDI has a profound impact on energy and environment of thehost country, especially for those who aspire to economic development and relaxenvironment regulation to attract foreign investment, the entry of foreign capital willlead to a series of energy and environmental issues. However, entry of foreign capitalinto the host may bring forward the technology transfers and technology spillovers,then improving the energy efficiency of the host, as one of important hypothesis inenergy economics, whether “FDI can reduce energy intensity of the host countries”hypothesis holds in China is worthy of further study.
In2010, China's actual utilization of foreign capital is$105.735billion, andactual use of foreign capital in the industrial sector accounted for about65%of thenationwide use of foreign capital over the past decade. At the same time, change ofenergy efficiency in the industrial sector as China's “energy-hungry”(the proportion isabout70%) will directly affect China's overall energy efficiency. Therefore, anaccurate grasp of the sizes, transmission channels and differences of the impacts ofFDI on China's industrial energy efficiency, has important practical significances forthe development of effective foreign investment policy, industrial policy and energysavings and emission reduction measures at the core of improving energy efficiency.In view of this, this study is as follows:
1．Estimating total factor energy efficiency of the industry in China. Usingnon-parametric data envelopment analysis, total factor productivity and total factorenergy efficiency of36sectors in China's industry from1999to2009are calculated,and the dissertation further estimates and compares total factor energy efficiency of domestic-funded and foreign-funded industrial enterprises in the28sectors. It turnsout that, no matter foreign or domestic enterprises, total factor energy efficiency doesnot perform well, it seems that it is not commensurate with total factor productivityand technical progress of the industry.
2．Study on the FDI technique effect influencing China's industrial energyefficiency. Many empirical studies identify FDI is closely related to technologytransfers and technology spillovers, through the establishment of theoretical modelsand econometric models in a sample of1999-2008,30provinces, industry panel data,the dissertation studies the impacts of FDI technique effect (including theenvironmental gains from FDI and race to the bottom) on China's industrial energyefficiency using static and dynamic panel data model, but also conducts an empiricalanalysis on the relationship between R&D, foreign technology import and domesticpurchase of domestic enterprises and industrial energy efficiency. The results find thatthe impacts of FDI technique effect on China's industrial energy intensity is positive,FDI technique effect can not only reduce China's industrial energy intensity, but alsoChina's industrial energy consumption.
3．Study on the total effect of FDI influencing China's industrial energyefficiency. Through the establishment of simultaneous equations including energyintensity (energy consumption) decomposition equation, FDI scale effect equation,FDI composition effect equation, FDI technique effect equation, FDI income-inducedtechnique effect equation and FDI selection equation, the dissertation uses three stageleast squares to empirically estimate simultaneous equations of FDI-China's industrialenergy intensity, and uses the elastic analysis to calculate the magnitude and directionof the different effect of the FDI path. The results show that in1999-2008, the degreeof foreign capital entering raises1%, resulting in heavily energy consumption of theindustrial composition and thus makes the industrial energy intensity increase by0.1907%, by directly raising the technological level and indirectly enhancing the percapita income makes the industrial energy intensity decrease by0.3086%and0.0669%respectivly, the total effect is to make industrial energy intensity decrease by0.1848%. The hypothesis “FDI can reduce the local energy intensity” is to beestablished in China.
4．Study on the transmission channels of FDI influencing China's industrialenergy efficiency. The dissertation defines the three transmission channels of the effects of FDI on China's industrial energy efficiency—horizontal linkage, backwardlinkage and forward linkage, using a sample of Chinese industrial panel data,empirically analyzes the transmission channels of FDI influencing China's industrialenergy efficiency. The results show that significantly horizontal linkage effect of FDIreduces industrial energy intensity; the linkage channel between foreign-fundedenterprises of downstream industries and intermediate goods suppliers of the upstreamindustry significantly increases industrial energy intensity, and the linkage channelbetween foreign-funded enterprises of upstream industries and buyers of downstreamindustries does not have a significant impact on industrial energy intensity. At thesame time, the dissertation uses the impulse response function of the time series datato analyze the transmission impacts of FDI on the structure share and efficiency shareof China's industrial energy intensity.
Finally, on the basis of in-depth study on FDI influencing China's industrialenergy efficiency, the dissertation provides policy recommendations for improvingenergy efficiency in the open economy at the national level, regional level andindustry level, such as active use of FDI technology spillovers, optimizing theindustrial structure, encouraging technological innovation and increasingenvironmental regulation and so on.
2010年，中国实际利用外资金额达到1057.35亿美元，而在过去十年工业部门实际利用外资金额占到全国利用外资的65%左右。同时，工业部门作为中国国民经济的主要“耗能大户”（比重约为70%左右），其能源效率变动将直接影响中国总体能源效率。因此，准确把握FDI对中国工业能源效率影响的大小，传导渠道和差异，对于制定以提高能源效率为核心的外资政策、产业政策和节能减排措施具有重要的现实意义。鉴于此，本文对如下问题展开研究：
1．测算中国内外资工业企业全要素能源效率。采用非参数数据包络分析法，对中国工业36个行业1999—2009年的全要素生产率和全要素能源效率进行测算，并进一步测算和比较28个行业内外资工业企业的全要素能源效率。测算结果表明，不管是外资企业还是内资企业，其全要素能源效率表现都不尽如人意，而且似乎与工业全要素生产率及技术进步的表现不相称。
2．研究FDI技术效应对中国工业能源效率的影响。考虑到技术效应在许多研究中被认为具有较重要的地位，技术效应的方向和大小对于总效应的形成和变化具有较为显著的影响。因此，通过建立理论模型和计量模型，利用中国1999—2008年30个省区工业面板数据，采用静态和动态面板模型集中研究FDI技术效应（包括外资环境收益效应和外资向底线赛跑效应）对中国工业能源效率的影响，同时也对内资企业的国内自主研发、国外技术引进和国内技术购买与工业能源效率之间的关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明，FDI技术效应对中国工业能源强度影响是正面的，FDI技术效应不仅可以降低中国工业能源强度，而且能够降低中国工业能源消费量。
3．研究FDI对中国工业能源效率的影响总效应。通过建立包含能源强度（或能源消费量）分解方程、FDI规模效应方程、FDI结构效应方程、FDI技术效应方程、FDI收入引致的技术效应方程和FDI区位选择方程的联立方程组，采用三阶段最小二乘法实证估计FDI-中国工业能源强度联立方程组，并用弹性分析法计算FDI路径下不同影响效应的大小和方向。结果表明，1999—2008年，外资进入度提高1%，导致工业行业结构高耗能化进而使工业能源强度上升0.1907%，通过直接提高技术水平和间接提高人均收入使工业能源强度分别下降0.3086%和0.0669%，总效应为工业能源强度减少0.1848%。“FDI能够降低东道国能源强度”假说得以成立。
4．研究FDI影响中国工业能源效率的传导渠道。通过界定FDI影响中国工业能源效率的三种传导渠道——水平关联、后向关联和前向关联，以中国工业行业面板数据为研究样本，实证分析FDI影响中国工业能源效率的传导渠道。估计结果表明，外资水平关联效应显著降低工业能源强度；下游行业外资企业与上游行业中间产品供应商的联系渠道显著增加工业能源强度，而上游行业外资企业与下游行业购买商的联系渠道对工业能源强度没有产生显著影响。同时，本文还利用时间序列的脉冲响应函数研究中国工业能源效率的结构份额和效率份额在外资冲击下的传导影响。
最后，在深入研究FDI对中国工业能源效率影响的基础上，从国家层面、区域层面和行业层面提出经济开放条件下提高能源效率的政策建议，如积极利用FDI的技术溢出效应、优化产业结构、鼓励技术创新和加大环境规制力度等。
Since twenty-first century, China's overall economic scale and growth speed havebeen among the forefront of the world, however, the energy problem has seriouslyrestricted the sustainable development of China's economy. In the foreseeable future,energy consumption and carbon emission in China will continue to increase due to theprocess of industrialization and urbanization. China announced that it would aim for a40-45%reduction in carbon intensity between2005and2020as well as a16%reduction in energy intensity and a17%cut in carbon intensity in12th five-year plan,showing that the Chinese government has aimed at improving energy efficiency (theinverse of energy intensity). As one of the main forms of capital flows amongcountries and regions, FDI has a profound impact on energy and environment of thehost country, especially for those who aspire to economic development and relaxenvironment regulation to attract foreign investment, the entry of foreign capital willlead to a series of energy and environmental issues. However, entry of foreign capitalinto the host may bring forward the technology transfers and technology spillovers,then improving the energy efficiency of the host, as one of important hypothesis inenergy economics, whether “FDI can reduce energy intensity of the host countries”hypothesis holds in China is worthy of further study.
In2010, China's actual utilization of foreign capital is$105.735billion, andactual use of foreign capital in the industrial sector accounted for about65%of thenationwide use of foreign capital over the past decade. At the same time, change ofenergy efficiency in the industrial sector as China's “energy-hungry”(the proportion isabout70%) will directly affect China's overall energy efficiency. Therefore, anaccurate grasp of the sizes, transmission channels and differences of the impacts ofFDI on China's industrial energy efficiency, has important practical significances forthe development of effective foreign investment policy, industrial policy and energysavings and emission reduction measures at the core of improving energy efficiency.In view of this, this study is as follows:
1．Estimating total factor energy efficiency of the industry in China. Usingnon-parametric data envelopment analysis, total factor productivity and total factorenergy efficiency of36sectors in China's industry from1999to2009are calculated,and the dissertation further estimates and compares total factor energy efficiency of domestic-funded and foreign-funded industrial enterprises in the28sectors. It turnsout that, no matter foreign or domestic enterprises, total factor energy efficiency doesnot perform well, it seems that it is not commensurate with total factor productivityand technical progress of the industry.
2．Study on the FDI technique effect influencing China's industrial energyefficiency. Many empirical studies identify FDI is closely related to technologytransfers and technology spillovers, through the establishment of theoretical modelsand econometric models in a sample of1999-2008,30provinces, industry panel data,the dissertation studies the impacts of FDI technique effect (including theenvironmental gains from FDI and race to the bottom) on China's industrial energyefficiency using static and dynamic panel data model, but also conducts an empiricalanalysis on the relationship between R&D, foreign technology import and domesticpurchase of domestic enterprises and industrial energy efficiency. The results find thatthe impacts of FDI technique effect on China's industrial energy intensity is positive,FDI technique effect can not only reduce China's industrial energy intensity, but alsoChina's industrial energy consumption.
3．Study on the total effect of FDI influencing China's industrial energyefficiency. Through the establishment of simultaneous equations including energyintensity (energy consumption) decomposition equation, FDI scale effect equation,FDI composition effect equation, FDI technique effect equation, FDI income-inducedtechnique effect equation and FDI selection equation, the dissertation uses three stageleast squares to empirically estimate simultaneous equations of FDI-China's industrialenergy intensity, and uses the elastic analysis to calculate the magnitude and directionof the different effect of the FDI path. The results show that in1999-2008, the degreeof foreign capital entering raises1%, resulting in heavily energy consumption of theindustrial composition and thus makes the industrial energy intensity increase by0.1907%, by directly raising the technological level and indirectly enhancing the percapita income makes the industrial energy intensity decrease by0.3086%and0.0669%respectivly, the total effect is to make industrial energy intensity decrease by0.1848%. The hypothesis “FDI can reduce the local energy intensity” is to beestablished in China.
4．Study on the transmission channels of FDI influencing China's industrialenergy efficiency. The dissertation defines the three transmission channels of the effects of FDI on China's industrial energy efficiency—horizontal linkage, backwardlinkage and forward linkage, using a sample of Chinese industrial panel data,empirically analyzes the transmission channels of FDI influencing China's industrialenergy efficiency. The results show that significantly horizontal linkage effect of FDIreduces industrial energy intensity; the linkage channel between foreign-fundedenterprises of downstream industries and intermediate goods suppliers of the upstreamindustry significantly increases industrial energy intensity, and the linkage channelbetween foreign-funded enterprises of upstream industries and buyers of downstreamindustries does not have a significant impact on industrial energy intensity. At thesame time, the dissertation uses the impulse response function of the time series datato analyze the transmission impacts of FDI on the structure share and efficiency shareof China's industrial energy intensity.
Finally, on the basis of in-depth study on FDI influencing China's industrialenergy efficiency, the dissertation provides policy recommendations for improvingenergy efficiency in the open economy at the national level, regional level andindustry level, such as active use of FDI technology spillovers, optimizing theindustrial structure, encouraging technological innovation and increasingenvironmental regulation and so on.
引文
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