FTA背景下中国与潜在自由贸易伙伴国家间农产品贸易关系
摘要
区域(或双边)贸易协定是当今世界多边贸易体制下的一个主要和不可逆转的趋势。在区域贸易谈判中,农业问题的谈判是一个至关重要和敏感的领域。中国是世界重要的农产品贸易大国之一,虽然区域经济合作发展起步晚,但步伐快。为了准确捕捉中国农产品在潜在的贸易协定国家市场上的机会,深刻理解中国与潜在的自由贸易伙伴间农产品贸易模式及背后的推动力量,避免双边自由贸易协定对中国农业发展带来负面影响,本文选择中国与潜在FTA (Free Trade Agreement)伙伴国家(澳大利亚、巴西、印度、日本和韩国)之间的农产品贸易做了深入研究,分析了中国与这些国家之间的农产品贸易趋势、生产定位、竞争性和互补性、中国和这些伙伴国家签署自由贸易协定对中国农业资源配置和农产品贸易带来的潜在影响。研究结论如下：
随着地区贸易协定规模的不断扩大,大量文献分析国家或区域间建立自由贸易区的可行性及事后评价。从研究方法上看,大量文献仍然运用比较优势指数、产业内贸易指数、贸易集中度指数和贸易互补性指数等常用的衡量双边贸易模式的描述性统计方法。尽管这些方法已经被很多文献讨论,但是,在分析双边农产品贸易模式的时候,特别对中国的学者,仍需要注意这些方法的优缺点及其使用时的陷阱。
澳大利亚已成为中国重要的农产品进口来源国之一。澳大利亚对中国农产品的需求也呈不断增加的趋势。中国与澳大利亚农产品贸易总体呈快速上升趋势,但不稳定,产业内贸易水平不高。两国农产品贸易存在很强的互补性。中澳两国农产品贸易有很大的提升空间,但这种贸易空间的提升可能是不平衡的。
中国与印度和巴西这两个国家之间的农产品贸易既有共同点,也有差异。共同点是,中国与这两个国家之间的农产品贸易基于各自的要素禀赋上,中国主要出口劳动密集型农产品,而这两个国家则主要出口土地密集型农产品。中国与巴西和印度间的农产品贸易主要为产业间贸易。巴西和印度向中国出口农产品的互补性明显大于中国向巴西和印度出口农产品的互补性。不同点是,中国和印度双边贸易不稳定性,且不平衡性,中国存在着巨额的贸易逆差,且逆差还在不断增加；而中国和巴西之间的农产品贸易主要是以中国进口为主,目前已存在着巨额的贸易逆差,且逆差有进一步增长的趋势。
进口需求效应一直是中国向日本和韩国农产品出口贸易增长的主导力量,但是,中国加入WTO以后,出口竞争力效应对中国向日本和韩国农产品出口贸易增长的拉动作用明显增强。与中国向日本农产品出口比较,中国向韩国出口农产品对进口需求效应的变化比较敏感；中国对韩农产品的出口极易受外部经济环境的影响,进口需求效应稍有变动会直接引起了贸易的波动。出口结构效应是制约中国向日本和韩国农产品出口贸易增长的原因。进口需求效应一直是拉动日本对中国农产品出口贸易增长的主要因素,而日本农产品竞争力的不足和出口产品结构不合理则制约着其对中国贸易的增长。随着时间的推移,韩国对中国农产品出口贸易的主导效应已由竞争力效应转变为进口需求效应。
Regional (bilateral) trade agreement is the most popular trend in the current world multilateral trading system, which has been proved irreversible. In the process of making regional trade agreements, the negotiation on agricultural products is critical and sensitive. China is one of the most important nations on agricultural products trading in the world market. Compared to other countries, China's regional economic cooperation start relatively late, but it develops rapidly in recent years.
In order to accurately grabing the opportunities for China's agricultural products in the potential market of other countries, making a deep understanding about agricultural trade patterns as well as the driving force between China and its potential trade partners, and avoiding negative impacts of a bilateral free trade agreement to China's agricultural development, this paper makes an intensive study in the field of agricultural products trade between China and its potential FTA (Free Trade Agreement) partners, including Australia, Brazil, India, Japan and South Korea. The paper analyzes the features of production location, competition and complementarity of these countries in the world market, and then indicates what benefit or loss China will gain by free trade agreement. The conclusions are as follows:
With the range of regional trade agreements constantly expanding, many literatures have researched the feasibility to establishing a national or regional free trade zone. From the view of methods, they mainly use the descriptive statistics to estimate bilateral trade patterns, involving the comparative advantage index, intra-industry trade indices, trade concentration index and the trade complementarity index. In this paper, it makes a critical analysis about the advantages and disadvantages of these methods listed above, which would be helpful to Chinese scholars in the future study.
Australia has become one of the most important countries-where China imports plenty of agricultural products every year. Meanwhile, it cannot be ignored that Australia's demand for Chinese agricultural products is also sharply increasing. Generally speaking, the agricultural trade between China and Australia is developing rapidly but unstable, the intra-industry trade is also trapped in a low level. However, it has been proved that agricultural trade between the two countries is strongly complementary. China and Australian bilateral trade in agricultural products has great potential to improve, though this enhancement may be in an imbalanced way.
Agricultural products trade between Sino-India and Sino-Brazil are not only totally different, but also has many similarities. First, agricultural trades between China and these two countries are all on the basis of their own factor endowment; China mainly exports labor-intensive agricultural products, while these two countries mainly export land-intensive agricultural products. Second, agricultural trade between China, Brazil and India are mainly inter-industry trade. The complementarity of agricultural products export from Brazil and India to China is significantly stronger than that from China to Brazil and India. However, some points distinguish Sino-Brazil trade from Sino-India trade. Although both of two trades place China in a condition of huge deficit that is still increasing, the bilateral trade between China and India is more instable and imbalanced than that between China and Brazi.
Import demand effect is always showed as the dominant power to increase China's agricultural products export to Japan and Korea. Since China entered WTO, the competitiveness of exportation has played a significant role in improving China's export of agricultural products to Japan and Korea. Compared to Sino-Japan export, China's export of agricultural products to Korea is more sensitive to the change of import demand effect influenced by economic environment. Once the import demand effect changes, the trade would be caused to a direct volatility. Moreover, the export structure effect is the major factor to constrain the growth of export from China to Japan and Korea. Import demand effect is the major factor to improve Japan's agricultural products export to China. However, Japan's agricultural products of lacking competitiveness and the irrational structure of exportation are two restrictions on the growth of its trade with China. As time goes on, Korea has transformed its dominance from the competitive effect to the import demand effect in Sino-Korea trade of agricultural products.
随着地区贸易协定规模的不断扩大,大量文献分析国家或区域间建立自由贸易区的可行性及事后评价。从研究方法上看,大量文献仍然运用比较优势指数、产业内贸易指数、贸易集中度指数和贸易互补性指数等常用的衡量双边贸易模式的描述性统计方法。尽管这些方法已经被很多文献讨论,但是,在分析双边农产品贸易模式的时候,特别对中国的学者,仍需要注意这些方法的优缺点及其使用时的陷阱。
澳大利亚已成为中国重要的农产品进口来源国之一。澳大利亚对中国农产品的需求也呈不断增加的趋势。中国与澳大利亚农产品贸易总体呈快速上升趋势,但不稳定,产业内贸易水平不高。两国农产品贸易存在很强的互补性。中澳两国农产品贸易有很大的提升空间,但这种贸易空间的提升可能是不平衡的。
中国与印度和巴西这两个国家之间的农产品贸易既有共同点,也有差异。共同点是,中国与这两个国家之间的农产品贸易基于各自的要素禀赋上,中国主要出口劳动密集型农产品,而这两个国家则主要出口土地密集型农产品。中国与巴西和印度间的农产品贸易主要为产业间贸易。巴西和印度向中国出口农产品的互补性明显大于中国向巴西和印度出口农产品的互补性。不同点是,中国和印度双边贸易不稳定性,且不平衡性,中国存在着巨额的贸易逆差,且逆差还在不断增加；而中国和巴西之间的农产品贸易主要是以中国进口为主,目前已存在着巨额的贸易逆差,且逆差有进一步增长的趋势。
进口需求效应一直是中国向日本和韩国农产品出口贸易增长的主导力量,但是,中国加入WTO以后,出口竞争力效应对中国向日本和韩国农产品出口贸易增长的拉动作用明显增强。与中国向日本农产品出口比较,中国向韩国出口农产品对进口需求效应的变化比较敏感；中国对韩农产品的出口极易受外部经济环境的影响,进口需求效应稍有变动会直接引起了贸易的波动。出口结构效应是制约中国向日本和韩国农产品出口贸易增长的原因。进口需求效应一直是拉动日本对中国农产品出口贸易增长的主要因素,而日本农产品竞争力的不足和出口产品结构不合理则制约着其对中国贸易的增长。随着时间的推移,韩国对中国农产品出口贸易的主导效应已由竞争力效应转变为进口需求效应。
Regional (bilateral) trade agreement is the most popular trend in the current world multilateral trading system, which has been proved irreversible. In the process of making regional trade agreements, the negotiation on agricultural products is critical and sensitive. China is one of the most important nations on agricultural products trading in the world market. Compared to other countries, China's regional economic cooperation start relatively late, but it develops rapidly in recent years.
In order to accurately grabing the opportunities for China's agricultural products in the potential market of other countries, making a deep understanding about agricultural trade patterns as well as the driving force between China and its potential trade partners, and avoiding negative impacts of a bilateral free trade agreement to China's agricultural development, this paper makes an intensive study in the field of agricultural products trade between China and its potential FTA (Free Trade Agreement) partners, including Australia, Brazil, India, Japan and South Korea. The paper analyzes the features of production location, competition and complementarity of these countries in the world market, and then indicates what benefit or loss China will gain by free trade agreement. The conclusions are as follows:
With the range of regional trade agreements constantly expanding, many literatures have researched the feasibility to establishing a national or regional free trade zone. From the view of methods, they mainly use the descriptive statistics to estimate bilateral trade patterns, involving the comparative advantage index, intra-industry trade indices, trade concentration index and the trade complementarity index. In this paper, it makes a critical analysis about the advantages and disadvantages of these methods listed above, which would be helpful to Chinese scholars in the future study.
Australia has become one of the most important countries-where China imports plenty of agricultural products every year. Meanwhile, it cannot be ignored that Australia's demand for Chinese agricultural products is also sharply increasing. Generally speaking, the agricultural trade between China and Australia is developing rapidly but unstable, the intra-industry trade is also trapped in a low level. However, it has been proved that agricultural trade between the two countries is strongly complementary. China and Australian bilateral trade in agricultural products has great potential to improve, though this enhancement may be in an imbalanced way.
Agricultural products trade between Sino-India and Sino-Brazil are not only totally different, but also has many similarities. First, agricultural trades between China and these two countries are all on the basis of their own factor endowment; China mainly exports labor-intensive agricultural products, while these two countries mainly export land-intensive agricultural products. Second, agricultural trade between China, Brazil and India are mainly inter-industry trade. The complementarity of agricultural products export from Brazil and India to China is significantly stronger than that from China to Brazil and India. However, some points distinguish Sino-Brazil trade from Sino-India trade. Although both of two trades place China in a condition of huge deficit that is still increasing, the bilateral trade between China and India is more instable and imbalanced than that between China and Brazi.
Import demand effect is always showed as the dominant power to increase China's agricultural products export to Japan and Korea. Since China entered WTO, the competitiveness of exportation has played a significant role in improving China's export of agricultural products to Japan and Korea. Compared to Sino-Japan export, China's export of agricultural products to Korea is more sensitive to the change of import demand effect influenced by economic environment. Once the import demand effect changes, the trade would be caused to a direct volatility. Moreover, the export structure effect is the major factor to constrain the growth of export from China to Japan and Korea. Import demand effect is the major factor to improve Japan's agricultural products export to China. However, Japan's agricultural products of lacking competitiveness and the irrational structure of exportation are two restrictions on the growth of its trade with China. As time goes on, Korea has transformed its dominance from the competitive effect to the import demand effect in Sino-Korea trade of agricultural products.
引文
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