国际反倾销与中国钢铁对外贸易问题研究
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摘要
钢铁行业作为一个经济体的基础性行业一直是国际反倾销的重点,不仅是全世界被提起反倾销诉讼和制裁最多的行业,也是中国遭受反倾销等贸易摩擦最主要的行业。1999年至2009年,中国钢铁产品出口遭受的反倾销调查案件共162起,遭受反倾销措施112起,反倾销措施率为69%。中国钢铁企业不断遭受到国际反倾销控诉和制裁,不但会严重影响中国和其他国家的双边贸易关系,也会给中国钢铁产业的长远发展带来很大的影响。系统研究中国钢铁产品频遭反倾销等贸易摩擦的现状、特点、成因及经济效应,以便有效地应对国际反倾销等贸易摩擦,已成为中国政府和钢铁企业迫切需要解决的问题。
为了满足研究需要,本文首先按照国际分类标准,以WTO反倾销数据库为基础,构建了时间序列数据的钢铁产品反倾销数据库,详细计算了中国钢铁产品出口遭受的反倾销调查指数、反倾销措施指数以及反倾销强度指数,并进行了反倾销调查指数、反倾销措施指数、反倾销强度指数、钢铁产业链各环节的国际竞争力和附加值的国际对比；同时分析了导致中国钢铁产业频遭反倾销等贸易壁垒的原因,实现了对中国钢铁产品出口遭受反倾销等贸易摩擦现状和特点的深度分析。其次,从产业内贸易的角度比较研究了中国钢铁制品频遭美国、加拿大和墨西哥反倾销的实质因素。第三,基于详实的数据,利用统计比较方法,以钢钉和环状焊管为例,分析了中国钢铁产品遭受反倾销等贸易摩擦的贸易效应和非贸易效应。第四,将反倾销等贸易壁垒机制引入一般均衡框架用以构建可计算一般均衡模型,并分别利用多国静态可计算一般均衡模型和中国动态可计算一般均衡模型,模拟预测反倾销税和反倾销威胁下出口需求下降与投资环境恶化对中国钢铁产业本身、钢铁产业所处的宏观环境和钢铁产业链上下游产业的微观环境的影响。
研究结论显示：①在未来相当长时间内,中国钢铁业特别是钢铁出口企业将会受到反倾销等国际贸易摩擦的困扰,中国钢铁产品的对外贸易会因此受到制约；虽所遭遇的反倾销绝对量是增加的,但中国钢铁企业应对反倾销等国际贸易摩擦纠纷的能力正逐渐提高,目前国际上的贸易摩擦纠纷对中国钢铁行业来说还是可控制的、可接受的。中国钢铁对外贸易所面临的反倾销等贸易摩擦既有广度也有集中度,初步出现了多米诺骨牌效应。发达国家进口中国的钢铁数额受反倾销活动的影响不如预期的大,但由于双边钢铁贸易基数大,所以其总体影响是很重要的。而发展中国家(除印度以外)对华AD调查指数远大于1,说明中国对这些发展中国家的钢铁出口强烈的受到了反倾销活动的影响,但由于该钢铁贸易基数小,所以不会从根本上影响中国钢铁对外贸易局势。②1999年至2009年问,主要反倾销来源国对华钢铁反倾销贸易摩擦张力较大的涉案产品,其产业内贸易指数都比较小,且他们都处于较大的贸易逆差失衡。说明当某一国和中国处于较大的贸易逆差失衡时,其更有可能发起对华钢铁产品的反倾销等诉讼。③美国对华发起钢钉和环状焊接碳素钢管反倾销会产生强烈的反倾销贸易调查效应和限制效应,出口有向未提起反倾销的国家转移的趋势,而且这种转移不仅包括国家间贸易转移效应,还有明显的产业间贸易转移效应。美国对中国钢钉和环状焊接碳素钢管的反倾销行为引起了该类产品的价格上升效应,并引致反倾销保护的投资跨越效应,中国钢铁企业会通过诸如在美国投资建设钢厂等“走出去”战略来规避反倾销税。④中国钢铁产业遭受美国反倾销导致中国的总体福利水平受损,且受损程度会随着美国对中国产钢铁产品征收反倾销税幅度的增大而逐渐加强。美国对华钢铁发起反倾销诉讼会减少我国的出口,减少我国的顺差,对美国平衡逆差有一定作用,但作用幅度较小,对其他经济体虽然有贸易转移效应,但其影响幅度同样很小。不过这样的作用会随着反倾销税的征收幅度的上升而逐渐增大。反倾销行为会使得国内钢铁产业产出量下降,这对于那些成本转嫁能力弱的中小钢铁企业来说,面临的很可能就是减产甚至淘汰的局面,而这无疑会对钢铁从业人员产生很不利的后果,届时将有更多的钢铁从业劳动力失业或者因此转移到别的行业,造成整个劳动力市场疲软,实际工资下滑。⑤国际贸易摩擦驱动下中国钢铁对外贸易环境恶化,若因此造成出口需求下降,会使得随后1-2年中国实际GDP有明显负向效应,且该负效应随着出口需求下降幅度的增大而增强,但随着时间的推移,出口需求下降所带来的负效应会有所弱化并逐渐转为正效应。而反倾销等贸易摩擦背景下的投资环境恶化所造成的影响会随着钢铁产业预期投资回报率的下降而更加大。受反倾销等贸易摩擦背景下的出口需求下降的影响,虽然出口受到抑制,但是钢铁产品的本地市场吸收能力增强,且出口抑制程度明显大于本地市场吸收能力的提升,这是导致其产出减少的主要原因；而受反倾销等贸易摩擦背景下的投资环境恶化的影响,虽然出口同样受到抑制,但是钢铁产品的本地市场吸收能力明显变弱才是导致其产出减少的主要原因。
基于上述研究结果,本文最后就中国钢铁产业对外贸易战略和应对反倾销等贸易摩擦提出了有针对性的政策建议。
As iron and steel industry is a fundamental industry in the economy,it has been the focus of international anti-dumping, it is not only the industry that has been brought up to anti-dumping proceedings and sanctions most often in the world, but also the industry that has encountered anti-dumping and other trade frictions most often in China. From1999to2009, China's iron and steel product exports had encountered a total of162cases of anti-dumping investigations,112cases of the anti-dumping measures, and the ratio of anti-dumping measures was69%. If Chinese steel companies continue to be suffered from international anti-dumping complaints and sanctions, it will not only seriously affect Chinese bilateral trade relations with other countries, but also bring great impact to long-term development of China's iron and steel industry. How to study systematically the status, characteristics, causes and effects of anti-dumping trade friction against to Chinese steel product, and deal with steel product international trade friction effectively, has become the urgently need to address problem of Chinese government and steel companies.
In order to meet the research needs, first, this paper builds up a new steel anti-dumping database in accordance with international classification standards, calculates the anti-dumping investigations index, anti-dumping measures index and anti-dumping intensity index of China's steel exports in detail, conducts international comparisons of anti-dumping investigations index, anti-dumping measures index, anti-dumping intensity index, international competitiveness and added value of the iron and steel industry chain, analyzes the reasons of China's iron and steel industry frequently result in anti-dumping and other trade barriers, and achieves deeply analysis of anti-dumping and other trade frictions status and characteristics in China's steel exports. Second, comparatively study the substantial factor of frequently antidumping against China's steel product export by the United states, Canada and Mexico through perspective of intra-industry trade. Third, based on detailed data, using statistical comparison, analyzes trade effects of non-trade effects of anti-dumping and other trade frictions on China's steel products. Fourth, firstly introduces mechanism of anti-dumping and other trade barriers to a general equilibrium framework to build a computable general equilibrium model, respectively, using multi-static computable general equilibrium model and the Chinese dynamic computable general equilibrium model, simulates and predicts the effect of the declining of export demand and the deteriorating investment environment on China's iron and steel industry itself, its macro environment and micro-environment of up and down stream of iron and steel industry chain, which is caused by anti-dumping and anti-dumping duty.
Findings showed that:①in the long future, China's iron and steel industry, especially iron and steel export enterprises will be persecuted to anti-dumping and other international trade friction, China's foreign trade in steel products will therefore be restricted; although the absolute amount of anti-dumping experienced an increase, china's ability to deal with dispute of anti-dumping and other international trade friction is gradually improving, China's international trade friction disputes can be controlled and acceptable. The anti-dumping and other trade frictions against Chinese steel export have breadth and concentration, there has been a domino effect. The impact of anti-dumping activities on import amount from China by the developed countries is not expected big, but because of the big base of bilateral steel trade, its overall impact can not be underestimated.And AD investigation index against china by developing countries(except India) is bigger than1,which means there are strong anti-dumping activities against Chinese steel export to some developing countries, because of the small base of iron and steel trade, it will not fundamentally affect the situation of China Steel's foreign trade.②From1999to2009, the involved products arisen by the main source of anti-dumping against Chinese steel export have big anti-dumping trade friction tension, its intra-industry trade index are relatively small, and they are in a larger trade deficit imbalance. This means when a country's trade deficit with China is a large imbalance, it is more likely to launch anti-dumping case against Chinese steel product export.③the United States launched antidumping case against Chinese nail and ring welded carbon steel pipe will have a strong anti-dumping investigation effect and the confinement effect, the exports have trend to transfer to non anti-dumping countries, and this transfer includes not only the inter-State trade transfer effect, but also significant inter-industry trade transfer effect. The United States'anti-dumping against China nail and ring welded carbon steel pipe enhance the prices of these products, and lead to antidumping-jumping FDI effect. China's steel enterprises will circumvent anti-dumping duties by investing in the United States to build up steel mills and other "going out "strategy.④China's iron and steel industry being suffered by U.S. anti-dumping causes damage to China's overall level of benefit, and the extent of the damage will increase gradually as the U.S. anti-dumping duty rate on Chinese steel product rising up. U.S. anti-dumping against Chinese Iron and Steel product will reduce china's exports and reduce China's trade surplus, also it is useful to cut down U.S. trade deficit, but the effect is small, although there are trade transfer effects on other economies, but the magnitude of its impact is minimal. However, this effect will gradually increase as anti-dumping duty rate rises up. Anti-dumping actions will make the domestic steel industry output decline, for those small and medium sized steel enterprises who have weak capacity to transfer the costs, they are likely to face output cut or closure, which will undoubtedly bring iron and steel employees very negative consequences, then there will be more engaged workforce become unemployed or transfer to other industries, this will bring weakness to the labor market and real wages will decline.⑤The decline in export demand caused by anti-dumping and other trade frictions will result in significant negative effects on China's real GDP in the following1-2years, and the negative effects will increase with the decline in export demand rising up, but as time goes by, the negative effects brought out by decline in export demand will be weakened and gradually become positive effect. The effect caused by deteriorating investment environment in the context of anti-dumping and other trade frictions will be even greater as the rate of return on investment in iron and steel industry is expected to decline. With the impact of falling export demand in the context of anti-dumping and other trade frictions, the export will be suppressed, but absorptive capacity of the local market for the steel products will enhance. And inhibition of export was significantly greater than the promotion of the local market absorptive capacity, which is the main reason that leads to output declining. When it is impacted by the effect caused by the deteriorating investment environment in the context of anti-dumping and other trade frictions, exports will also be inhibited, but the obvious weakening of local market absorption capacity for iron and steel product is the main reason to lead to output declining.
Based on the above findings, pertinence policy recommendations are proposed at the end of this article, which concern on foreign trade strategy of China's iron and steel industry and response to anti-dumping and other trade frictions.
为了满足研究需要,本文首先按照国际分类标准,以WTO反倾销数据库为基础,构建了时间序列数据的钢铁产品反倾销数据库,详细计算了中国钢铁产品出口遭受的反倾销调查指数、反倾销措施指数以及反倾销强度指数,并进行了反倾销调查指数、反倾销措施指数、反倾销强度指数、钢铁产业链各环节的国际竞争力和附加值的国际对比；同时分析了导致中国钢铁产业频遭反倾销等贸易壁垒的原因,实现了对中国钢铁产品出口遭受反倾销等贸易摩擦现状和特点的深度分析。其次,从产业内贸易的角度比较研究了中国钢铁制品频遭美国、加拿大和墨西哥反倾销的实质因素。第三,基于详实的数据,利用统计比较方法,以钢钉和环状焊管为例,分析了中国钢铁产品遭受反倾销等贸易摩擦的贸易效应和非贸易效应。第四,将反倾销等贸易壁垒机制引入一般均衡框架用以构建可计算一般均衡模型,并分别利用多国静态可计算一般均衡模型和中国动态可计算一般均衡模型,模拟预测反倾销税和反倾销威胁下出口需求下降与投资环境恶化对中国钢铁产业本身、钢铁产业所处的宏观环境和钢铁产业链上下游产业的微观环境的影响。
研究结论显示：①在未来相当长时间内,中国钢铁业特别是钢铁出口企业将会受到反倾销等国际贸易摩擦的困扰,中国钢铁产品的对外贸易会因此受到制约；虽所遭遇的反倾销绝对量是增加的,但中国钢铁企业应对反倾销等国际贸易摩擦纠纷的能力正逐渐提高,目前国际上的贸易摩擦纠纷对中国钢铁行业来说还是可控制的、可接受的。中国钢铁对外贸易所面临的反倾销等贸易摩擦既有广度也有集中度,初步出现了多米诺骨牌效应。发达国家进口中国的钢铁数额受反倾销活动的影响不如预期的大,但由于双边钢铁贸易基数大,所以其总体影响是很重要的。而发展中国家(除印度以外)对华AD调查指数远大于1,说明中国对这些发展中国家的钢铁出口强烈的受到了反倾销活动的影响,但由于该钢铁贸易基数小,所以不会从根本上影响中国钢铁对外贸易局势。②1999年至2009年问,主要反倾销来源国对华钢铁反倾销贸易摩擦张力较大的涉案产品,其产业内贸易指数都比较小,且他们都处于较大的贸易逆差失衡。说明当某一国和中国处于较大的贸易逆差失衡时,其更有可能发起对华钢铁产品的反倾销等诉讼。③美国对华发起钢钉和环状焊接碳素钢管反倾销会产生强烈的反倾销贸易调查效应和限制效应,出口有向未提起反倾销的国家转移的趋势,而且这种转移不仅包括国家间贸易转移效应,还有明显的产业间贸易转移效应。美国对中国钢钉和环状焊接碳素钢管的反倾销行为引起了该类产品的价格上升效应,并引致反倾销保护的投资跨越效应,中国钢铁企业会通过诸如在美国投资建设钢厂等“走出去”战略来规避反倾销税。④中国钢铁产业遭受美国反倾销导致中国的总体福利水平受损,且受损程度会随着美国对中国产钢铁产品征收反倾销税幅度的增大而逐渐加强。美国对华钢铁发起反倾销诉讼会减少我国的出口,减少我国的顺差,对美国平衡逆差有一定作用,但作用幅度较小,对其他经济体虽然有贸易转移效应,但其影响幅度同样很小。不过这样的作用会随着反倾销税的征收幅度的上升而逐渐增大。反倾销行为会使得国内钢铁产业产出量下降,这对于那些成本转嫁能力弱的中小钢铁企业来说,面临的很可能就是减产甚至淘汰的局面,而这无疑会对钢铁从业人员产生很不利的后果,届时将有更多的钢铁从业劳动力失业或者因此转移到别的行业,造成整个劳动力市场疲软,实际工资下滑。⑤国际贸易摩擦驱动下中国钢铁对外贸易环境恶化,若因此造成出口需求下降,会使得随后1-2年中国实际GDP有明显负向效应,且该负效应随着出口需求下降幅度的增大而增强,但随着时间的推移,出口需求下降所带来的负效应会有所弱化并逐渐转为正效应。而反倾销等贸易摩擦背景下的投资环境恶化所造成的影响会随着钢铁产业预期投资回报率的下降而更加大。受反倾销等贸易摩擦背景下的出口需求下降的影响,虽然出口受到抑制,但是钢铁产品的本地市场吸收能力增强,且出口抑制程度明显大于本地市场吸收能力的提升,这是导致其产出减少的主要原因；而受反倾销等贸易摩擦背景下的投资环境恶化的影响,虽然出口同样受到抑制,但是钢铁产品的本地市场吸收能力明显变弱才是导致其产出减少的主要原因。
基于上述研究结果,本文最后就中国钢铁产业对外贸易战略和应对反倾销等贸易摩擦提出了有针对性的政策建议。
As iron and steel industry is a fundamental industry in the economy,it has been the focus of international anti-dumping, it is not only the industry that has been brought up to anti-dumping proceedings and sanctions most often in the world, but also the industry that has encountered anti-dumping and other trade frictions most often in China. From1999to2009, China's iron and steel product exports had encountered a total of162cases of anti-dumping investigations,112cases of the anti-dumping measures, and the ratio of anti-dumping measures was69%. If Chinese steel companies continue to be suffered from international anti-dumping complaints and sanctions, it will not only seriously affect Chinese bilateral trade relations with other countries, but also bring great impact to long-term development of China's iron and steel industry. How to study systematically the status, characteristics, causes and effects of anti-dumping trade friction against to Chinese steel product, and deal with steel product international trade friction effectively, has become the urgently need to address problem of Chinese government and steel companies.
In order to meet the research needs, first, this paper builds up a new steel anti-dumping database in accordance with international classification standards, calculates the anti-dumping investigations index, anti-dumping measures index and anti-dumping intensity index of China's steel exports in detail, conducts international comparisons of anti-dumping investigations index, anti-dumping measures index, anti-dumping intensity index, international competitiveness and added value of the iron and steel industry chain, analyzes the reasons of China's iron and steel industry frequently result in anti-dumping and other trade barriers, and achieves deeply analysis of anti-dumping and other trade frictions status and characteristics in China's steel exports. Second, comparatively study the substantial factor of frequently antidumping against China's steel product export by the United states, Canada and Mexico through perspective of intra-industry trade. Third, based on detailed data, using statistical comparison, analyzes trade effects of non-trade effects of anti-dumping and other trade frictions on China's steel products. Fourth, firstly introduces mechanism of anti-dumping and other trade barriers to a general equilibrium framework to build a computable general equilibrium model, respectively, using multi-static computable general equilibrium model and the Chinese dynamic computable general equilibrium model, simulates and predicts the effect of the declining of export demand and the deteriorating investment environment on China's iron and steel industry itself, its macro environment and micro-environment of up and down stream of iron and steel industry chain, which is caused by anti-dumping and anti-dumping duty.
Findings showed that:①in the long future, China's iron and steel industry, especially iron and steel export enterprises will be persecuted to anti-dumping and other international trade friction, China's foreign trade in steel products will therefore be restricted; although the absolute amount of anti-dumping experienced an increase, china's ability to deal with dispute of anti-dumping and other international trade friction is gradually improving, China's international trade friction disputes can be controlled and acceptable. The anti-dumping and other trade frictions against Chinese steel export have breadth and concentration, there has been a domino effect. The impact of anti-dumping activities on import amount from China by the developed countries is not expected big, but because of the big base of bilateral steel trade, its overall impact can not be underestimated.And AD investigation index against china by developing countries(except India) is bigger than1,which means there are strong anti-dumping activities against Chinese steel export to some developing countries, because of the small base of iron and steel trade, it will not fundamentally affect the situation of China Steel's foreign trade.②From1999to2009, the involved products arisen by the main source of anti-dumping against Chinese steel export have big anti-dumping trade friction tension, its intra-industry trade index are relatively small, and they are in a larger trade deficit imbalance. This means when a country's trade deficit with China is a large imbalance, it is more likely to launch anti-dumping case against Chinese steel product export.③the United States launched antidumping case against Chinese nail and ring welded carbon steel pipe will have a strong anti-dumping investigation effect and the confinement effect, the exports have trend to transfer to non anti-dumping countries, and this transfer includes not only the inter-State trade transfer effect, but also significant inter-industry trade transfer effect. The United States'anti-dumping against China nail and ring welded carbon steel pipe enhance the prices of these products, and lead to antidumping-jumping FDI effect. China's steel enterprises will circumvent anti-dumping duties by investing in the United States to build up steel mills and other "going out "strategy.④China's iron and steel industry being suffered by U.S. anti-dumping causes damage to China's overall level of benefit, and the extent of the damage will increase gradually as the U.S. anti-dumping duty rate on Chinese steel product rising up. U.S. anti-dumping against Chinese Iron and Steel product will reduce china's exports and reduce China's trade surplus, also it is useful to cut down U.S. trade deficit, but the effect is small, although there are trade transfer effects on other economies, but the magnitude of its impact is minimal. However, this effect will gradually increase as anti-dumping duty rate rises up. Anti-dumping actions will make the domestic steel industry output decline, for those small and medium sized steel enterprises who have weak capacity to transfer the costs, they are likely to face output cut or closure, which will undoubtedly bring iron and steel employees very negative consequences, then there will be more engaged workforce become unemployed or transfer to other industries, this will bring weakness to the labor market and real wages will decline.⑤The decline in export demand caused by anti-dumping and other trade frictions will result in significant negative effects on China's real GDP in the following1-2years, and the negative effects will increase with the decline in export demand rising up, but as time goes by, the negative effects brought out by decline in export demand will be weakened and gradually become positive effect. The effect caused by deteriorating investment environment in the context of anti-dumping and other trade frictions will be even greater as the rate of return on investment in iron and steel industry is expected to decline. With the impact of falling export demand in the context of anti-dumping and other trade frictions, the export will be suppressed, but absorptive capacity of the local market for the steel products will enhance. And inhibition of export was significantly greater than the promotion of the local market absorptive capacity, which is the main reason that leads to output declining. When it is impacted by the effect caused by the deteriorating investment environment in the context of anti-dumping and other trade frictions, exports will also be inhibited, but the obvious weakening of local market absorption capacity for iron and steel product is the main reason to lead to output declining.
Based on the above findings, pertinence policy recommendations are proposed at the end of this article, which concern on foreign trade strategy of China's iron and steel industry and response to anti-dumping and other trade frictions.
引文
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