中美产品内贸易与利益分配研究
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摘要
中美建交30多年来,双边贸易迅速发展,2010年中美两国互为第二大贸易伙伴国。中美贸易的迅速发展离不开全球产品内分工与贸易,作为当今国际分工中的新形式,产品内分工主导着中美产品内贸易。中美产品内贸易带动了中国东部沿海地区的经济增长,为中国融入新型国际分工体系提供了契机,在未来很长一段时间内,产品内贸易仍将是中美贸易的主要形式。影响中美产品内贸易的因素很多,主要包括中美两国人均GDP绝对值差、美国对华FDI、东亚对华FDI、规模经济、市场结构等,其中东亚对华FDI和规模经济最为重要。受中美净贸易条件的影响,中美产品内贸易条件没有明显改善;受中美两国加工贸易具体因素的影响,中美加工贸易产品内贸易水平不高;受中国在东亚生产网络中的地位和外商直接投资的影响,中国对美出口产品附加值产品内贸易水平低于中国对外产品内贸易水平。在中美产品内贸易利益分配问题上,从静态贸易利益上来看,中美贸易顺差迅速扩大,中国外汇储备急剧增加,从量上来看,中国获得了相对较多的贸易利益;从动态贸易利益上来看,中国制造业工资水平和中国制造业就业人数也在不断上升,但相对美国来说中国只获得了很少的贸易利益。我们要妥善处理中美产品内贸易与利益分配过程中所出现的一系列问题,不断推动中美产品内分工从低附加值的生产环节向高附加值的研发营销环节演进,赢取更多贸易利益,最终实现中国产业结构升级和中美贸易健康发展。
     本文分为7章。第1章为导论,本章阐述了选题背景、研究目的、研究意义,梳理和评述了相关文献,说明了本文的结构安排与研究方法,指出了本文的创新之处和存在的不足。
     第2章为产品内分工与贸易的理论基础。在传统比较优势和规模经济的基础上,国际分工进一步深化,进入到产品内分工阶段。产品内分工作为一种新型国际分工形式,对国际贸易和中国经济产生了非常重要的影响,有着深刻的理论意义和现实意义。产品内分工有着传统分工形式共同的特点,但是它的实现形态却多样化,作为产品内分工现实形态的加工贸易、中间品贸易、产品内贸易成为当今国际贸易的主要方式。随着经济全球化形势的不断加强和跨国公司全球战略的逐步推进,产品内贸易的比重逐渐加大,国与国之间联系更加密切,越来越多的发展中国家参与到全球生产网络当中。产品内分工促进了世界各国经济和国际贸易增长速度,优化了世界各国对外贸易商品结构,改变了世界经济格局。
     第3章为中美贸易概述。中美贸易从无到有、从小到大,发展到双方互为第二大贸易伙伴国。中美贸易具有贸易主体是外商投资企业、主要贸易产品是工业制成品、加工贸易是主要贸易方式的特点。近年来随着美国对华直接投资力度的加大,中国对美出口日益增加,导致了中美贸易失衡。中美贸易失衡是当今中美贸易面临的重大问题,中美贸易失衡的原因主要有美国对华出口限制、双方统计口径不一致、人民币汇率、转口贸易等,如何正确处理中美贸易失衡问题关系到中美贸易能否正常进行。中美贸易是中美关系的重要组成部分,同时也是世界贸易的重要组成部分,是国际贸易和投资体系中的重要组成部分。中美两国作为世界上最大的发展中国家和最大的发达国家,两国贸易关系的能否健康发展,既关系到双方的利益,也会对世界经济格局产生重要的影响。
     第4章为中美产品内贸易水平的度量——以制造业对美出口为例。由于净贸易条件和收入贸易条件在衡量一国对外贸易条件存在的缺陷,本文引入了产品内贸易条件的概念。中美产品内贸易条件真实的反映了当今中美贸易的现状,依靠廉价劳动力和自然资源的比较优势使得中国对美产品内贸易条件有所改善。伴随着中国加工贸易的快速发展,中美加工贸易额增长迅速,从加工贸易测算中美产品内贸易水平的结果来看,中美加工贸易产品内分工程度总体水平低于中国加工贸易产品内分工程度,美国加工贸易对中国出口比重一直较低,中国对美出口中加工贸易所占比重一直居高不下,中美贸易以加工贸易为主,而在中国加工贸易出口中,外商投资企业一直扮演着重要的角色。因此,从加工贸易视角分析中美产品内贸易水平必须排除外商投资企业的影响程度。
     中国制造业八个部门对美出口的产品内分工程度,大部分高于中国制造业对外出口总体的产品内分工程度;从总体上看,中国制造业对美出口中产品内贸易水平提升速度很快,并且高于中国制造业对外出口的产品内贸易水平的提升速度。在中国制造业八个部门中,机械设备制造业、金属产品制造业和非金属矿物制品业三部门对美出口的VSS值高于制造业总体出口的VSS值。在制造业各部门中,机械设备制造业对美出口的VSS值一直远远高于制造业总体出口的VSS值。另一方面,分部门来看,机械设备制造业、其他制造业对美出口产品附加值和产品内贸易水平增长最快,这基本符合当今全球价值链分工和中美产品内贸易的现状。
     第5章为对中美产品内贸易影响因素的实证分析。中美产品内贸易受经济、物理、社会三大因素的影响,经济因素包括比较优势、规模经济和交易成本;物理因素包括产业特征、产品构造和不同生产工序的要素密集度差异;社会因素主要有产业政策、外贸战略和文化特征。在中美产品内贸易开展过程中,中国国内生产总值、中国人均国内生产总值、中美两国人均国内生产总值差的绝对值、美国对华FDI、东亚十国对华FDI、中国平均关税水平、规模经济、等因素直接或间接地影响着中美产品内贸易水平。其中,中美两国经济结构存在较强的互补性,这种互补性对中美产品内贸易迅速发展起来巨大的推动作用,美国对华直接投资和东亚对华直接投资起了主导作用,建立在规模经济基础上的中国劳动力比较优势在中美产品内贸易中发挥了重要作用,中国购买力的提高对中美产品内贸易产生了积极影响,中国平均关税水平的下降对中美产品内贸易影响不明显,中美市场厚度趋近不利于中美产品内贸易的开展。
     第6章为对中美产品内贸易与利益分配的实证研究。贸易利益的内涵随着产品内分工的深化逐步延伸,从传统贸易利益分配到产品内贸易利益分配。基于贸易差额上的分析表明中国在中美产品内贸易中获得量的优势,无论宏观层面还是微观层面上看,中国都获得了大量的贸易利益。中国对美出口净贸易条件的恶化和收入贸易条件的改善表明单纯通过进出口价格和数量来判断中国在对美贸易中的得失是缺乏理论依据的,净贸易条件和收入贸易条件经常会出现截然相反的走向,因为净贸易条件受进出口价格影响较大,而收入贸易条件受制于出口数量增减。借助于投入-产出表,计算出中国制造业对美出口产品附加值、附加值比重和产品内分工水平。从总体上来看,一方面,中国制造业总体对美出口产品附加值和产品内分工水平都有所提高,中国制造业对美出口附加值比重始终保持在40%左右。另一方面,外商投资企业在中国对美出口附加值中所占比重很大,零部件或中间品在中国出口产品中所占比重很大。从实证分析结果来看,中国获得了数量可观的静态贸易利益,中美产品内贸易水平与贸易差额具有正相关;而在动态贸易利益上,制造业部门工资水平提升速度远远低于中美贸易增长速度。事实上,中国只获得了很少的动态贸易利益。
     第7章为结论与政策。中美产品内贸易方式以加工贸易为主;中美产品内贸易商品以工业制成品为主;中美产品内贸易主体是外商投资企业;中美产品内贸易水平低于中国对外产品内贸易水平;在中美产品内贸易利益分配上,中国处于量的优势和质的劣势尴尬境地;中国、东亚和美国的“三角贸易”模式在中美产品内贸易中起主导作用。实证分析表明,美国对华直接投资、东亚地区对华直接投资、中美两国人均国内生产总值差的绝对值、关税、规模经济、中国人均国内生产总值与中美产品内贸易呈正相关,中国国内生产总值与中美产品内贸易水平呈负相关。积极参与产品内分工与贸易、提升中美产品内贸易层次、调整加工贸易发展战略等措施可以逐步提升中国对美产品内贸易利益。
China and America have established diplomatic relations for more than thirty years, and Sino-US trade has developed rapidly. In2010, China became US's second largest trading partner, so did America. The rapid development of Sino-US trade is inseparable from global Intra-product division of labor and trade, which as a new form in the international division of labor, dominates Sino-US trade. Sino-US intra-product trade has promoted the economic growth in eastern coastal areas of China and created an opportunity for China's integration into the new international division of labor. For a long time in the future, Sino-US intra-product trade will continue to be the main forms of Sino-US trade. Many factors affect Sino-US intra-product trade, mainly including the difference between the China's and America's per-capita GDP, the US and East Asia direct investment in China, economies of scale and the per capita GDP, of which the East Asia direct investment in China and economies of scale play a vital role. Under the influence of net terms of Sino-US trade, the condition of Sino-US intra-product trade has not been improved significantly; under the influence of import and export of Sino-US processing trade, the intra-product trade of Sino-US processing trade has not reached a high level; under the influence of China's position in the production network in East Asia and foreign direct investment, the level of intra-product trade of China's exports to the United States added value is lower than that of China's foreign intra-product trade. There exists the imbalance of distribution of interests in Sino-US intro-product trade. From the perspective of static trade interests, the Sino-US trade surplus has been expanded rapidly, and China's foreign exchange reserves have been increased sharply and relatively China has won more trade interests. From the perspective of dynamic trade interests, wage level in China's manufacturing industry has been increased constantly. Compared with America, China has only gained a small amount of trade interests. China should properly handle a series of problem arising during the process of Sino-US intra-product trade and the distribution of interests and continually promote Sino-US intra-product division to shift from low value-added production processes to the links of high value-added research and development and marketing to win more trade interests and ultimately realize Sino-US Trade healthy development and upgrade China's industrial structure.
     The dissertation contains seven chapters. The first chapter is introduction. In this chapter, background of the topic and the purpose of research and the theoretical and practical significance is elaborated, related literature is reviewed, the structure arrangement and research method is clarified, and the innovation and shortness is given.
     The second chapter is the theoretical basis of Intra-product division of labor and trade. On the basis of the traditional comparative advantage and economies of scale, international division of labor has deepened into Intra-product division of labor. As a new form of international division of labor, the Intra-product division of labor has impacted a great influence on the international trade and China's economy with its profound meaning both theoretically and practically. Intra-product division of labor bears the common forms of the traditional division of labor while with its diversified form of realization. Also, Processing Trade, Intra-mediate Trade, and Intra-product Trade, as the practical form of the Intra-product division of labor have become the main way of global trade today. With the strengthening of the economic globalization and the gradual promotion of the global strategies of the multinational corporations, the proportion of trade within products has been increased step by step, and the relationship among distinct countries has become closer, more and more developing countries have been figured in the global production, as a result, a new structure of the world economy has come into being.
     The third chapter is the overview of Sino-US Trade. Sino-US Trade have developed into the second trading partner for each other from scratch. The trading relationship between Sino-US has the characteristics that the trading subject is foreign investment enterprises, the main products are manufactured goods and the main trading method is processing trading. As the reinforcement of the direct-investment from America to China in recent years, the export from China to America has kept increasing, and this caused Imbalance between Sino-US Trade, The Imbalance of Sino-US Trade becomes a critical problem that Sino-US Trade facing. The main factors are the Export Restraints policy of America; Statistical Caliber is different between two countries, the Exchange rate of RMB and Transit Trade and so on. The way to handle this Imbalance is an important indicator for the proceeding of Sino-US Trade. This text referred the sentence:In the US diplomatic history, there is none of the diplomatic policies can guide the development of the relationship between Sino-US Trade so broadly and long-ranged as well as be supported by as much people as the consensus of Sino-US diplomatic relationship establishment did. There is a unique opportunity among the most developed and fastest developing countries that is to make contribution to the world through cooperation with each other regarding to the foresight and sagacity that we possess.
     The fourth charter is The condition of Sino-US intra-product trade-as the export of manufacturing industry to US. The condition of Sino-US intra-product trade shows truly the current situation of Sino-US intra-product trade and to better the condition of China's intra-product trade against US by the comparative advantage of cheap labor and natural resources. With the rapid growth of China's Processing trade, the volume of Sino-US processing trade has witnessed very fast increase likewise. According to the estimate result of Sino-US intra-product trade by processing trade, the overall level of Sino-US intra-product division of labor is lower than that of China's processing trade. America has always kept a relatively low percentage of processing trade in its export to China, while that of China to the US has been very high all along. Processing trade is the leading role of Sino-US trade, while enterprises with foreign direct investment have played a crucial part in China's export of processing trade. Therefore, the influence of foreign investment enterprises must be eliminated when analyzing the Sino-US intra-product trade from the aspect of processing trade.
     The level of intra-product division of labor in exports to the United States in most of the eight sectors in China's manufacturing industry is higher than that of the overall intra-product division of labor in China's exports of manufacturing industry. On the whole, the level of intra-product trade in China's exports of manufacturing industry to the United States has been upgraded rapidly, which is faster than that of the intra-product trade in China's exports of manufacturing industry. Among the eight sectors of China's manufacturing industry, the VSS value of exports to the United States of the sectors of machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, manufacturing of metal products and non-metallic mineral products industry is higher than that of the overall exports of manufacturing industry. In all the sectors of manufacturing industry, the VSS value of exports to the United States of machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has been much higher than that of the overall exports of manufacturing industry.
     The fifth chapter is The empirical analysis on the related factors of sino-us intra-product trade. The three factors of economic, physical, social have an effect on Intra-product trade. The economic factors contain Comparative advantage, economies of scale and transaction costs; the physical factors consist of the characteristics of industries, the productive structure and the differences among the different production processes; the social factors mainly include industrial policy, the strategy of foreign trade and the features of culture. The developing process of Sino-US intra-product trade, China's GDP, the per capital GDP in China, the absolute value of the difference between the per capita GDP in China and US, American foreign direct investment towards China, ten of East Asian countries foreign direct investment to China, the average tariff level of China, economies of scale and so on,all of them affect the development Sino-US intra-product trade. Among them, there is a strong complementarity in the Sino-US economic structure, which gives great impetus to the rapid expansion of Sion-US trade. The US and East Asia direct investment in China play the leading role in the Sion-US trade. Built on the basis of scale economy of the Chinese labor advantage play an important role on Sino-US intra-product trade. The raising of china's purchasing power has a positive impact on the Sino-US intra-product trade. The descending of the average of china's Tariffs is not obvious to the Sino-US intra-product trade. The thickness of Sino-US market approach is disadvantageous to the development of the Sino-US intra-product trade.
     The six chapter is The empirical analysis on Sino-US intra-product trade and Benefits Distribution. With the deepening of intra-product division of labor, the connotation of trade interests has been extended gradually from traditional trade interests distribution to intra-product trade interests distribution. The balance of trade indicates that China has gained quantitative advantage in Sino-US intra-product trade and China has obtained a lot of trading interest both at macro-level and at micro-level. The deterioration of the condition of China's net export trade to the US and the improvement of that of income trade indicate that it really lacks the theoretical basis to judge China's gains and losses of its trade to the US sheer by the import and export prices and quantities. The condition of net trade and income trade always present a totally opposite trend, for the condition of net trade is exposed easily to the import and export prices while that of income trade is subjected to the fluctuations of export quantities.
     By means of the Input-output table, we can work out the added value, the proportion of added value and the level of intra-product division of labor of the export products of China's manufacturing industry to the US. Both the added value and the level of intra-product division of labor have experienced improvement on the whole, and the proportion of added value has maintained around40%throughout. In regard of distinct divisions, the added value and the level of intra-product division of labor of mechanical equipment manufacturing industry and other manufacturing industries gained the fastest growth. The situation above fundamentally is consistent with the status of the current global division of labor of the value chain and Sino-US trade. On one hand, foreign investment enterprises have a large proportion in the added value of China's exports to the United States; on the other hand, accessories or intermediate products have a large proportion in Chinese exports. The results of empirical analysis indicate that China has gained a considerable amount of static trading interests and the level of Sino-US intra-product trade correlates with balance of trade positively; from the perspective of dynamic trading interests, Wages raise of the manufacturing sector is considerably slower than the growth in Sino-US trade balance and China has got a few dynamic trading interests.
     Chapter seven is the conclusion and policies. The trading relationship between Sino-US has the characteristics that the trading subject is foreign investment enterprises, the main products are manufactured goods and the main trading method is processing trading. But the level of the Sino-US intra-product trade is lower than the level of china foreign intra-production trade. China takes on the situation of the advantage of the quantity and the quality in an inferior position in the benefits distribution from Sino-US intra-product trade. The "triangular trade" mode among China, East Asia and the US takes a leading role in the Sino-US intra-product trade. In the empirical research, the Sino-US intra-product trade has positive correlation with the US and East Asia direct investment in China, the difference between the China's and America's per-capita GDP, the average tariff level of China, economies of scale and the per capita GDP. The GDP of China is in negative correlation to the Sino-US intra-product trade. China should participate actively in the Intra-product division of labor and trade, improve the level of the Sino-US intra-product trade, adjust the policies of foreign direct investment and enlarge the strength of foreign direct investment, take some positive actions to the development of processing trade strategy. If China can do these well, it can gradually improve the interests of Intra-product trade to the US.
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