中美产业内贸易对劳动力市场成本影响研究
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摘要
20世纪70年代以来,产业内贸易逐渐在世界贸易中占据重要的地位,成为促进新型国际分工形成、推动主导产业与新兴产业发展的重要力量。近年来,伴随着全球经济一体化的发展以及中国经济的持续高速增长,中国对外贸易的商品结构发生了很大变化。同时,居民收入水平的提高、人们消费需求多样化趋势的增强以及外商直接投资规模的扩大促进了中国产业内贸易的发展,产业内贸易在中国对外贸易中的作用不断提高。
     中国加入WTO后,对外贸易对中国经济的影响日益加深,成为推动经济增长的重要因素。中国劳动力市场出现的“招工难”、“工资差距扩大”等现象都与中国对外贸易形势有密切关系。研究贸易与劳动力市场的影响已成为当前研究的热点。在中国的对外贸易中,中美贸易有着非常重要的地位,2010年中美两国互为的第二大贸易伙伴。因此,研究中美产业内贸易对中国劳动力市场成本的影响,不仅具有重要的学术意义,对实际部门决策也有重要的参考价值。
     在研究产业内贸易对劳动力市场成本的影响时,以产业内贸易理论为基础,紧紧围绕劳动力市场的两个关键变量展开分析,一是就业调整成本变量,二是工资变量。
     在研究中美产业内贸易对劳动力市场的就业调整成本的影响时,主要理论依据是“平滑调整假说”。该假说认为:调整成本与产业内贸易程度有密切的关系,产业内贸易程度越高,贸易的调整成本越低。这一假说为本文研究中美产业内贸易对就业调整成本的影响提供了思路。通过建立实证模型,计算了中美贸易中的多种边际产业内贸易指数,分析了中美产业内贸易程度与贸易引致的就业调整成本的关系,得出产业内贸易程度越高,贸易调整成本越小的结论。实证研究的结果证明了“平滑调整假说”在中国的适用性。在此基础上,估计了主要产业的劳动力就业调整成本。
     在研究产业内贸易对劳动力市场工资影响时,借助现有产业内贸易与工资差距相关理论模型,构建了中美制造业产业内贸易与工资的计量分析模型,测算了产业内贸易与行业工资差距之间关系。研究结果显示,中美制造业细分行业的产业内贸易程度与职工的工资水平存在显著关系,以产业内贸易为主的行业,产业内贸易水平的提升对职工相对工资水平提高的推动作用大于以产业间贸易为主的行业。
     根据中美产业内贸易对劳动力市场成本影响的实证研究结论,提出的政策建议主要包括:坚持扩大开放的同时,采取各种措施改善劳动力市场状况;进行产业结构和贸易结构的调整、重视职工工作技能的培训,减少由于产业内贸易引致的就业调整成本对劳动力市场的冲击;增加研发投入、对引进外资的政策进行调整、促成加工贸易的优化升级,提升产业内贸易的规模和质量,提高职工工资。
     与已有文献相比,本文的研究可能取得了以下创新:首先,稳健性较好地检验了“平滑调整假说”,多视角估计了就业调整成本。目前,国内利用“平滑调整假说”对中国的产业内贸易的研究,或者没有论证该假说在中国的适用性就以此作为依据,或者利用单一指标进行计算,不能客观反映的边际产业内贸易规模。其次,以面板数据模型实证了产业内贸易对工资影响。国内相关成果主要从一般贸易研究其对贸易收入分配的影响;最后,对产业内贸易影响劳动力市场中的就业调整成本与工资的传导机制进行了比较系统的分析。现有研究缺乏对这种传导机制的充分论述。由于研究条件和研究水平的限制,本文也存在不足:由于企业微观层面的数据难以收集,只能采用行业数据;利用产业内贸易分析劳动力市场还缺乏较系统的理论。
     本文共分7章:
     第1章,导论部分。本章阐述选题的背景以及意义,并对本文的结构安排及所采取的主要研究方法给予说明,此外还指出了本文研究的主要方法及创新与不足之处。
     第2章,产业内贸易的基本理论与测度方法。对产业内贸易的概念进行了界定,对产业内贸易的基本理论进行了阐述,进而在全面评析产业内贸易的主要测度方法及划分产业内贸易类型的主要标准的基础上,指出了本文研究所选取的产业内贸易的具体测度方法和划分标准,阐述了“平滑调整假说’'(Smooth Adjustment Hypothesis)的概念,并对边际产业内贸易的相关计算方法进行了比较分析。
     第3章,产业内贸易对劳动力市场成本的影响机制。从两个方面进行分析,一方面是国际贸易的发展会影响到各部门生产要素的流动,劳动力市场在需求与供给发生变化后没有及时出清而引发暂时性的低效率时,就会发生调整成本,这种调整成本与各部门的产业内贸易水平存在一定关系;另一方面是产业内贸易对各部门劳动者工资收入水平造成的影响,借鉴国内外学者的相关研究,对产业内贸易影响劳动力成本的机制进行了分析。
     第4章,中美产业内贸易的总量及结构。对中美贸易发展规模和商品结构的进行了分析,发现自从中国加入WTO以来,中美制成品贸易已成为中美贸易的主要组成部分。通过对中美水平与垂直产业内贸易的比较分析,发现中美产业内贸易以低水平的垂直产业内贸易为主。通过对中国对美主要进出口商品产业内贸易情况的分析,发现出口商品的垂直化程度高于进口商品。
     第5章,中美产业内贸易对就业调整成本的影响。阐述了Balassa提出的“平滑调整假说”及一些实证研究情况。对多种边际产业内贸易指数的概念与及计算方法进行了比较,在此基础上,计算了中美的产业内贸易A指数、B指数及S指数,并对计算结果进行了分析。利用面板数据的方法对就业调整成本与边际产业内贸易的关系进行了分析,得出产业内贸易程度越高,相应的就业调整成本越低的结论,验证了“平滑调整假说”在我国的适用性。
     第6章,中美产业内贸易对工资的影响。依椐现有产业内贸易与工资差距相关理论,构建了分析中美制造业产业内贸易与工资水平之间关系的计量模型,测算了产业内贸易与行业工资差距存在的关系。研究结果显示,中美制造业的产业内贸易指数与职工的工资水平有正的显著的关系。以产业内贸易为主的行业,产业内贸易水平的提升对职工相对工资水平提高的推动作用远大于以产业间贸易为主的行业。行业的贸易开放度对产业内贸易与工资差距的作用机制也具有影响。
     第7章,总结出了全文得出的主要结论与政策建议。
Intra-industry trade has been accounting for quite an important position in world trade since1970s last century. It has become a major force driving the development of a new type international division of labor, accelerating the development of emerging and dominant industries. In recent years, along with the development of global trade liberalization as well as China's economy maintained rapid growth, the commodity structure of China's foreign trade has changed greatly. At the same time, the per capita income levels increase the trend of enhanced diversification of consumer demand and foreign direct investment continues to expand vigorously promote the development of intra industry trade in China. The role of intra industry trade in China's foreign trade continue to improve.
     China's accession to the WTO, the impact of foreign trade have deepened and foreign trade become an important force in promoting economic growth in China. Some phenomenon such as "recruitment difficulties","wage gap had widened" have happened in labor market in China, these are closely related with China's foreign trade situation. The relationship between trade and labor market costs has become a hot topic of current research. Sino-US trade has a very important position in China's foreign trade. In2010, China and the United States are each other's second largest trading partner. Study the impact of Sino-US intra-industry trade of China's Labor market costs not only has academic significance, also has important reference value to the real sector decisions.
     In the study of the impact of intra industry trade on the labor market costs, this dissertation is based intra-industry trade theory, tightly around the two key variables to analyze the labor market, respectively, cost variables and the wage variable.
     In the study of the impact of intra industry trade on the employment adjustment costs in labor market, the main theoretical basis is the "smooth adjustment hypothesis ".This hypothesis proposed that adjustment costs and the degree of intra-industry trade are closely related, the higher the level of intra-industry trade, the lower the adjustment costs of trade. The hypothesis provides the ideas for our analysis of Sino-US trade adjustment costs. In this paper, empirical model has been used to calculate the marginal intra-industry Trade Index between China and the United States. This dissertation analyzes the relationship between employment adjustment costs and the Sino-US intra-industry trade. This dissertation obtained conclusion that the higher the degree of intra-industry trade, the smaller the of the trade adjustment costs and proved the applicability of the "smooth adjustment hypothesis in China. On this basis, the labor force adjustment costs of the main industry are estimated.
     In analyzing the effects of intra-industry trade for labor wages, with the help of a theoretical model of the existing intra-industry trade and wage gap, the dissertation constructs a quantitative analysis model of intra industry trade within the Sino-US manufacturing industry and the wage premium and estimates the relationship between the intra-industry trade and industry wage gap. The results show that the level of intra industry trade index and the wages of workers in the manufacturing industry between China and the United States have a positive significant relationship. In promoting the industry wage level, role based on intra-industry trade is much larger than the inter-industry trade.
     Empirical findings based on the impact of Sino-US intra-industry trade on labor market, the policy recommendations include the following:Adhering to the expansion of opening up, at the same time,we must take various measures to improve labor market conditions.We must make the adjustment of industrial structure and trade structure, the emphasis on workers'job skills training to reduce the impact arising from employment of intra-industry trade adjustment costs on the labor market; We should increase R&D investment, to adjust the policy to attract foreign investment, contribute to the optimization and upgrading of processing trade to enhance the size and quality of intra-industry trade, increase the wages of workers.
     Compared with the existing literature, this study may have achieved the following innovations:First of all, better robustness examined the "smooth adjustment hypothesis", the multi-angle estimated employment adjustment costs;Domestic scholars in the use of "smooth adjustment hypothesis" on the Chinese intra industry trade does not demonstrate that the applicability of the hypothesis in China; Some domestic scholars use single indicators to calculate and can not objectively reflect the scale of the marginal intra-industry trade. Second, this dissertation use panel data model to analyze the impact of intra-industry trade on wages. The domestic results mainly from the general trade study on the impact of trade and income distribution; Finally, this dissertation analyzes the impact of intra-industry trade on employment adjustment costs and wage. Existing research is the lack of full discussion of this transmission mechanism. Due to the conditions and restrictions on the level, there are shortcomings:Difficult to collect the data of the micro-level, the dissertation only use industry data; when I use intra-industry trade to analyze the labor market, systematic theory is lack.
     The dissertation is composed of8chapters:
     Chapter1,Introduction. This chapter describes the background and significance of the topics and describes the structural arrangement and the main research methods. It is also noted that the main method of this study and innovation and inadequacies..
     Chapter2, Basic theory and measure of intra-industry trade. This chapter first defines the concept of intra-industry trade, introduced the basic theory of intra-industry trade. And then on the basis of comprehensive assessment of the measure method of intra-industry trade and criteria of the classification of intra-industry trade, This chapter pointed out a specific measure of intra-industry trade study selected in this article methods and criteria for the classification of intra-industry trade. Finally, this chapter introduces the concept of "smooth adjustment hypothesis" and relates to calculation of marginal intra-industry trade.
     Chapter3, The impact mechanism of intra-industry trade for labor costs. This chapter analyzed from two aspects. The one hand, the development of international trade will affect the flow of the various departments of production factors.If demand and supply changes, the labor market is not clearing. This will lead to a temporary low efficiency. Employment adjustment costs occurs. There is a certain relationship between adjustment cost and level of intra-industry trade. On the other hand, intra-industry trade will affect the workers'wages. This chapter draw on the research of scholars to analyze the mechanism of intra-industry trade affect labor costs.
     Chapter4, Volume and structure of the Sino-US intra-industry trade. Analyzing the scale of development and commodity structure of the Sino-US trade, this chapter found that since China's accession to the WTO Sino-US trade in manufactured goods has become a major component of the Sino-US trade.Based comparative analysis of Sino-US horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade, this chapter found that the Sino-US intra-industry trade is a low level of vertical industry trade. By analyzing intra-industry trade of Sino-US major import and export commodities, found that the vertical extent of the export goods is higher than imported goods.
     Chapter5, Effects of Sino-US intra-industry trade on employment adjustment costs. This chapter has conducted in-depth analysis of employment adjustment costs caused by trade and introduced Balassa "smooth adjustment hypothesis and the empirical research. This chapter in-depth analyzes the concept of marginal intra-industry trade index and its calculation method. On this basis, this chapter calculate the marginal intra-industry trade index including A Index B Index and the S index between China and the United States. The chapter uses panel data method to analyze the relationship between employment adjustment costs and marginal intra-industry trade and concludes that the higher the degree of intra-industry trade, the lower the cost of employment adjustment conclusions and proves the applicability of the "smooth adjustment hypothesis in China.
     Chapter6, Effects of Sino-US intra-industry trade on wage costs With the help of a theoretical model of the existing intra-industry trade and wage gap, the dissertation constructs a quantitative analysis model of intra industry trade within the Sino-US manufacturing industry and the wage premium and estimates the relationship between the intra-industry trade and industry wage gap. The results show that the level of intra industry trade index and the wages of workers in the manufacturing industry between China and the United States have a positive significant relationship. Role in promoting the industry wage levels based on intra-industry trade is much larger than the inter-industry trade.
     Chapter7, Conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter summarizes the main conclusions and policy recommendations of the full text.
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