对外开放与我国区域产业结构调整研究
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摘要
在经济全球化的快速发展的今天,对外开放已成为一国经济发展不可或缺的外部因素,那么对外开放对我国产业结构调整会产生怎样的影响呢?是影响某一地区产业结构内部各产业比例关系,还是影响特定产业在不同地区的竞争优势?本文采用转移份额分析法将产业结构对经济增长的影响分解为构成效应和竞争效应,并在此基础上探讨进出口贸易、外商直接投资及对外开放结构对我国产业结构优化升级和竞争力的影响。
论文首先对我国进出口贸易、外商直接投资、区域产业结构构成效应和竞争效应的现状进行分析。总体而言,进出口贸易、外商直接投资等多集中于东部地区,中西部地区的进出口贸易、外商直接投资都是比较少。产业结构构成效应和竞争效应也有着类似的分布,东部地区的大多数省份都具有较高的构成效应和竞争效应,而中西部地区的多大数省份产业结构构成效应和竞争效应都比较低。
论文接下来研究进口和出口贸易对产业结构调整的影响。全国样本估计结果显示：我国进口贸易增加对产业结构的构成效应和竞争效应都具有促进作用,尤其是对构成效应的作用更大一些,我国出口贸易增加只对产业结构竞争效应有促进作用,对构成效应的作用并不显著。区域样本估计结果显示：进口贸易对产业结构构成效应的影响由东向西逐渐递减,对竞争效应的影响效果也是由东向西逐渐递减。出口贸易对产业结构构成效应的影响在东部地区是显著的,而在中西部地区是不显著的,对产业结构竞争效应的影响在东中西地区都是显著的,但是影响效应是由东向西逐渐增加。
然后,论文研究外商直接投资对产业结构调整的影响。全国层面的外商直接投资对产业结构的构成效应和竞争效应都具有显著的促进作用,尤以对构成效应的作用更为明显。分地区的估计结果则显示,尽管外商直接投资都显著提高了各地区产业结构的构成效应和竞争效应,但其对我国经济结构调整的作用方式在不同地区具有显著差异,表现为对产业结构构成效应的影响由东向西依次递减,而对竞争效应的影响由东向西依次递增。
再次,论文分析进口贸易结构与外商直接投资结构对产业结构调整的影响。研究结果表明：进口贸易结构、出口贸易结构、外商直接投资结构与产业结构构成效应和竞争效应都存在着长期的协整关系。通过面板数据分析发现,进口贸易结构对产业结构的构成效应与竞争效应产生正向促进作用,但其作用效果并不非常显著；出口贸易结构对产业结构的构成效应与竞争效应产生显著的正向促进作用,其中东中部的作用效果非常显著。外商直接投资结构对产业结构构成效应与竞争效应产生显著的正向促进作用,但其作用效果在我国不同地区间存在着差异。
最后,根据以上研究结论,本文从商品进出口贸易、引资和对外开放结构等方面提出进一步提高对外开放水平以促进产业结构调整的对策建议。
With the rapid development of the trend of economic globalization, opening up is proved to be an obbligato external factor which contributes to one country's economic development. Then how does opening up affect China's industrial restructuring? Does it have a significant impact on the the proportion relationship between industries within the industrial structure in a certain area or the competitive advantage in different regions in a specific industrial? This paper uses the method of shift-share analysis to decompose the effects of industry structure on economic growth into composition effects and competition effects for the sake of synthetically reflecting the proportion relationship of different productivity level (or importance) in the industry constructure and the difference in productivity which a specific industry shows owing to different regions factor endowments and technological conditions. On this basis, this paper discusses the effects of import and export trade、foreign direct investment and the structure of opening up on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the competitiveness. Details are as follows:
Firstly, we analyse the status of China's import and export trade, foreign direct investment(FDI), and the composition effects and competition effects of regional industrial structure. On the whole, most of the import and export trade and foreign direct investment are concentrated in the eastern area, only a small part is distributed in the central and western regions. The compositon effects and competition effects of industrial structure have the similar distribution. Most of the provinces in the eastern part have higher compotition effects and competition effects, which are lower in the central and western provinces.
Sencondly, this paper makes a study on the import and export trade on industrial restructuring. The estimated results of the national sample show that, import trade plays a positive role on the compositon effects and competition effects of industrial structure, and the effect on compositon effects is particularly significant. Increasing the export trade only improves the competition effects of industrial structure, however, the effect on compositon effects is not significant. Sub-regional estimates show that, the effects of import trade on composition effects and competition effects are both in descending order from east to west. The effect of export trade on compositon effects is significant in eastern region, but in central and western region is not significant. The effect of export trade on competition effects is significant in all regions and is in ascending order from east to west.
Thirdly, this paper makes an empirical study of the impact of foreign direct investment on industrial structure of China. The estimated results of the national sample show that, FDI promotes the composition effects and competition effects of industrial structure significantly, and the effect on composition effects is more significant. That is to say that, FDI is not only good for regional industry to gain a competitive advantage in a short-term, but also more conductive to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the long-term. Sub-regional estimates show that, there exist significant differences on the action pattern of FDI on China's economic structure adjustment in different regions. The effects of FDI on composition effects are in descending order from east to west, and the effects on competition effects in ascending order from east to west.
Fourthly, this paper analyses the effects of trade and FDI structure on industrial restructuring. The results show that, there exists an long-term cointegration relationship between import structure, export structure, FDI structure and compositon effects and competition effects of industrial structure. The panel data analysis shows that import trade structure plays a positive role on compositon effects and competition effects of industrial structure, but the effect is not very significant. Export trade structure has a significant positive effect on the composition effects and competition effects, in which the effects in eastern and central region are particularly significant. The FDI structure plays a significant and positive effect on the compositon effects and competition effects, but the effects are different in different regions of China.
Based on the conclusions above, we put forward relevant policies and proposals to furtherly improve the level of opening up in order to promote industrial restructuring from the term of commodity import and export trade, attracting investment and opening structure.
论文首先对我国进出口贸易、外商直接投资、区域产业结构构成效应和竞争效应的现状进行分析。总体而言,进出口贸易、外商直接投资等多集中于东部地区,中西部地区的进出口贸易、外商直接投资都是比较少。产业结构构成效应和竞争效应也有着类似的分布,东部地区的大多数省份都具有较高的构成效应和竞争效应,而中西部地区的多大数省份产业结构构成效应和竞争效应都比较低。
论文接下来研究进口和出口贸易对产业结构调整的影响。全国样本估计结果显示：我国进口贸易增加对产业结构的构成效应和竞争效应都具有促进作用,尤其是对构成效应的作用更大一些,我国出口贸易增加只对产业结构竞争效应有促进作用,对构成效应的作用并不显著。区域样本估计结果显示：进口贸易对产业结构构成效应的影响由东向西逐渐递减,对竞争效应的影响效果也是由东向西逐渐递减。出口贸易对产业结构构成效应的影响在东部地区是显著的,而在中西部地区是不显著的,对产业结构竞争效应的影响在东中西地区都是显著的,但是影响效应是由东向西逐渐增加。
然后,论文研究外商直接投资对产业结构调整的影响。全国层面的外商直接投资对产业结构的构成效应和竞争效应都具有显著的促进作用,尤以对构成效应的作用更为明显。分地区的估计结果则显示,尽管外商直接投资都显著提高了各地区产业结构的构成效应和竞争效应,但其对我国经济结构调整的作用方式在不同地区具有显著差异,表现为对产业结构构成效应的影响由东向西依次递减,而对竞争效应的影响由东向西依次递增。
再次,论文分析进口贸易结构与外商直接投资结构对产业结构调整的影响。研究结果表明：进口贸易结构、出口贸易结构、外商直接投资结构与产业结构构成效应和竞争效应都存在着长期的协整关系。通过面板数据分析发现,进口贸易结构对产业结构的构成效应与竞争效应产生正向促进作用,但其作用效果并不非常显著；出口贸易结构对产业结构的构成效应与竞争效应产生显著的正向促进作用,其中东中部的作用效果非常显著。外商直接投资结构对产业结构构成效应与竞争效应产生显著的正向促进作用,但其作用效果在我国不同地区间存在着差异。
最后,根据以上研究结论,本文从商品进出口贸易、引资和对外开放结构等方面提出进一步提高对外开放水平以促进产业结构调整的对策建议。
With the rapid development of the trend of economic globalization, opening up is proved to be an obbligato external factor which contributes to one country's economic development. Then how does opening up affect China's industrial restructuring? Does it have a significant impact on the the proportion relationship between industries within the industrial structure in a certain area or the competitive advantage in different regions in a specific industrial? This paper uses the method of shift-share analysis to decompose the effects of industry structure on economic growth into composition effects and competition effects for the sake of synthetically reflecting the proportion relationship of different productivity level (or importance) in the industry constructure and the difference in productivity which a specific industry shows owing to different regions factor endowments and technological conditions. On this basis, this paper discusses the effects of import and export trade、foreign direct investment and the structure of opening up on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the competitiveness. Details are as follows:
Firstly, we analyse the status of China's import and export trade, foreign direct investment(FDI), and the composition effects and competition effects of regional industrial structure. On the whole, most of the import and export trade and foreign direct investment are concentrated in the eastern area, only a small part is distributed in the central and western regions. The compositon effects and competition effects of industrial structure have the similar distribution. Most of the provinces in the eastern part have higher compotition effects and competition effects, which are lower in the central and western provinces.
Sencondly, this paper makes a study on the import and export trade on industrial restructuring. The estimated results of the national sample show that, import trade plays a positive role on the compositon effects and competition effects of industrial structure, and the effect on compositon effects is particularly significant. Increasing the export trade only improves the competition effects of industrial structure, however, the effect on compositon effects is not significant. Sub-regional estimates show that, the effects of import trade on composition effects and competition effects are both in descending order from east to west. The effect of export trade on compositon effects is significant in eastern region, but in central and western region is not significant. The effect of export trade on competition effects is significant in all regions and is in ascending order from east to west.
Thirdly, this paper makes an empirical study of the impact of foreign direct investment on industrial structure of China. The estimated results of the national sample show that, FDI promotes the composition effects and competition effects of industrial structure significantly, and the effect on composition effects is more significant. That is to say that, FDI is not only good for regional industry to gain a competitive advantage in a short-term, but also more conductive to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the long-term. Sub-regional estimates show that, there exist significant differences on the action pattern of FDI on China's economic structure adjustment in different regions. The effects of FDI on composition effects are in descending order from east to west, and the effects on competition effects in ascending order from east to west.
Fourthly, this paper analyses the effects of trade and FDI structure on industrial restructuring. The results show that, there exists an long-term cointegration relationship between import structure, export structure, FDI structure and compositon effects and competition effects of industrial structure. The panel data analysis shows that import trade structure plays a positive role on compositon effects and competition effects of industrial structure, but the effect is not very significant. Export trade structure has a significant positive effect on the composition effects and competition effects, in which the effects in eastern and central region are particularly significant. The FDI structure plays a significant and positive effect on the compositon effects and competition effects, but the effects are different in different regions of China.
Based on the conclusions above, we put forward relevant policies and proposals to furtherly improve the level of opening up in order to promote industrial restructuring from the term of commodity import and export trade, attracting investment and opening structure.
引文
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