中国生猪市场价格波动研究
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摘要
在我国畜牧业结构中,养猪业依然占主导地位,猪肉比重占肉食的65%左右(2005年、2006年)。据2007世界肉类组织第四届世界猪肉大会资料,2006年,中国猪肉产量达5197万t,占世界猪肉总产量的50.1%,遥居首位。另外,养猪业在扩大农村就业、增加农民收入、带动种植业和相关产业发展、振兴农村经济等方面,都起到了不可替代的作用。因此,生猪产业的稳定发展与否,不仅关系到中国的畜牧业发展,而且关系到农业发展、农村建设和农民增收,进而关系到国民经济的持续、稳定发展。
在市场供求规律的作用下,我国生猪价格呈现周期性波动状态。近年来,生猪价格的波动周期延长,波动幅度加大,价格的大起大落导致广大生猪饲养者不断调整产量,致使产量陷入一种“短缺”与“过剩”的循环波动之中,这一现象反过来又加剧了价格的波动。所以说,价格波动和生产波动是中国生猪产业最主要的内涵特征,这既影响了生产者的利益,也影响了消费者的福利,对国民经济的平衡发展起到了负面影响。因此,价格波动问题是生猪产业发展的核心问题,对其加以研究具有非常重要的现实意义。
本文旨在研究改革开放后我国生猪价格波动的特征与成因。即从历史数据或调查数据出发,对我国生猪市场的波动情况进行描述和分析,旨在把握生猪价格波动的总体特征和地区特征:同时对形成这种波动的主要影响因素进行分析,旨在明确各主要影响因素的影响方式、影响机理以及一些因素的影响程度。
为了上述目标的实现,本文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,以价格波动的相关理论和文献分析为基础,对我国生猪价格波动的特征和成因进行研究,以期为缓解我国生猪价格波动探求解决对策。具体研究思路为:依据历史数据或调查数据对我国生猪市场的波动特征进行描述(包括生产波动和价格波动的总体特征和区域特征);分别对各影响因素进行单因素分析,重在分析其对价格的影响方式和影响机理,进而采用多元回归模型进行多因素分析,重在分析各因素对价格的影响程度,并以2007年猪价暴涨为实例,解析了各种因素综合作用的结果及带来的影响:最终为缓解我国生猪价格波动提出了可操作性的对策与建议。
论文的主要内容、运用的方法及结论如下:
(1)论文运用趋势分解法科学界定了短期波动和长期波动的内涵,分别用速度法和趋势分解法对生猪价格和生产的短期波动进行测定,对我国生猪生产波动和价格波动的总体特征作了描述与分析,结果表明:生猪价格波动程度高于产量波动程度。通过计算代表长期波动程度的变异指数和变异系数指标,同样能得到这一结论。把生猪价格变异率和产量变异率置于同一坐标中,以分析二者之间的依存关系,可以看出二者在总体上有近似反向运动的倾向,这对以往研究是个有益的补充。
(2)运用趋势分解法计算变异指数,以其描述和分析我国生猪的产量和价格在区域间和省际间的波动特征;同时运用方差分解法分析不同区域、省份的产量对总产量的影响程度及其内在联系。结果表明:以生猪输出为主的区域产量波动程度高,而价格波动程度低,尤以经济水平不够发达的东北区和西南区为代表:产量大或产量波动程度高的省份极易对区域产量波动造成较大影响:产量小的省份对区域产量波动起到了抑制作用,但其价格波动程度往往较高:生猪主产区大多有较低的价格变异指数,产量小的生猪主销区价格变异指数较高,集生猪主销区和主产区为一体的省份产量变异指数和价格变异指数均较低。这部分内容的研究具有一定创新性。
(3)论文运用内部传导和外部冲击波动理论分析了我国生猪价格波动成因与机理。采用模型分析与理论分析相结合的方法,全面分析生猪价格波动各影响因素的作用方式和影响机理。内部传导因素包括:生猪的生长周期、生产者供给行为、生产成本、产业链利益分配、生产结构;外部冲击因素包括疫情等突发事件、宏观调控手段、替代品价格、收入水平与经济周期等因素。
(4)采用多元回归模型对可以量化的生猪价格的主要影响因素进行实证研究,并以2007年生猪价格暴涨为实例,解析其形成原因及对生活和社会带来的影响。基于供求层面,选择主要影响因素分析其对生猪价格的影响程度,实证模型结果表明:玉米价格(代表投入品价格)是最重要的影响因素,其对生猪价格的边际影响最大;另外,仔猪价格是影响较大的因素,当前这种仔猪随肥猪价格跟涨的现象是制约生猪产业发展一大隐患;生产者价格预期和替代品价格对生猪价格波动的影响不大;疫情对生猪价格波动的边际影响为负数,主要模拟的是来自需求面的影响,同时指出疫情对需求和供给影响的非同步性加强了波动的振幅,给生猪产业带来严重冲击。
(5)在上述研究的基础上,提出缓解生猪价格波动的有效措施和具体对策。包括加强宏观政策的引导:加强政府宏观调控机制建设;加快完善生猪疫病防控体系建设:完善国家生猪生产宏观监测与预警系统;加快推进“生猪期货”市场发展;加速生猪生产模式的转变等,这些措施对于抑制生猪价格的剧烈波动具有十分积极的现实意义。
The pig industry is still dominated in the structure of China's animal husbandry, the proportion of pork 65%(2005 and 2006). According to information from the Fourth World Fork Meeting held by World Meat Organization in 2007, the pork output from China(51.97 million ton) account for 50.1% in the output of world in 2006, located in first place. In addition, The pig industry have played an irreplaceable role in many aspects, such as the expanding rural employment, increasing the income of farmers, promoting the development of agriculture and related industries, revitalizing rural economy and so on. Therefore, the pig industry's stability and development is not only related to China's animal husbandry, but also related to agricultural development, rural construction and fanners incomes, further related to the national economy's sustainable and stable development.
Under the law of supply and demand, the price of hog showed cyclical state. In recent years, the fluctuation cycle of hog price has been extended, with increasing range. The price fluctuations caused the many farmers to adjust production, resulting in output into the cycle of "shortage" and "excess", which aggravated price fluctuations. So the fluctuations of price and production is the most important characteristics of pig industry in China, which not only affects the interests of the producers, but also affected the welfare of consumers, having a negative impact to the unbalanced development of the national economy. Therefore, the price fluctuation of hog is the core issue of industrial development, the research to which have very important theoretical and practical significance.
This thesis aims to study the characteristics and causes of the hog price fluctuations after China's reform and opening up. Starting from the historical data, China's hog market fluctuation is described and analyzed to grasp the characteristics of price fluctuation; The main factors inducing fluctuations are analyzed to clear the affecting ways, affecting mechanism of all the major factors and the affecting degree of a number of factors.
In order to achieve above aims, a combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are used. On the base of the price fluctuations theory and references analysis, the characteristics and causes of China's hog price fluctuations is studied, in order to explore the measures to alleviating China's hog price fluctuation. Specific methods for the study: Based on historical data or survey data, China's hog fluctuations characteristics is describe(including the overall features and geographical features on output fluctuations and price fluctuations); the single factor is analyzed to clear the affecting ways, affecting mechanism, then multiple regression model is used to analyze affecting degree of a number of factors. Take price skyrocketing of hog in 2007 for example, the result and the impact from various factors is analyzed. All of which aims to bring about workable Countermeasures and suggestions to relieve China's hog price fluctuations.
The main content, methods and conclusions of this thesis are as follows:
(1) The content of short-term fluctuations and long-term fluctuations is defined by using the "trend decomposition", the "speed" and the "trend decomposition" is used respectively to measure the short-term fluctuations of pig prices and production. A description and Analysis on the overall features fluctuation of hog output and price fluctuations showed that: the price fluctuations level is higher than that of output fluctuations. By calculating variation index and the coefficient of variation(on behalf of long-term fluctuation), the same conclusion can be showed. Put the ratio of variation of price and output into the same coordinates to analyze the interdependence between the two, similar reversal change trend in general can be seen. Which is a useful complement to the past study.
(2) Use the "trend decomposition" to calculate the variation index, with which the regional fluctuation characteristics of the output and price are described and analyzed. At the same time, variance decomposition method is used to analyze the impact that the different regions, provinces give the gross output and internal relations. The results showed that: the regions to export hogs have a higher output fluctuation level and a lower price fluctuation level, especially less developed areas such as the Northeast and Southwest areas; the provinces with large output or with higher output fluctuation level have greater impact on regional output; the provinces with small output have weaker impact on regional output fluctuations; Most of the main sales provinces with small output have a higher price variation index, the main producing provinces have a lower price variation index. The research of this part includes some innovative contents.
(3)With the theory of internal transmission and external shock, the causes and mechanism of hog price fluctuations are analyzed. the models and theoretical analysis are combined to analyze the causes and mechanism of all influencing factors. The internal factors include the special growing process of hogs, producers' supply, the cost of production and interests distribution of the industrial chain; The external factors include the impact of the epidemic (unexpected events), the macro-control measures, the prices of substitutes, the income levels etc.
(4)The multiple regression model is used to have the empirical research on main factors affecting prices of hogs. Take skyrocketing prices of hogs in 2007 as an example, analysis of the causes and the impact on life and society are analyzed. Based on supply and demand, the main factors is selected to analyze the extent of influencing price. The results showed that corn prices (on behalf of input prices) is the most important factors affecting the price of hogs. Its marginal impact is the largest. In addition, the price of piglets is a greater impact. The expected producer prices and prices of substitutes have a weak impact. The epidemic has a negative marginal impact on the price of hogs from the demand. At the same time, the non-synchronous step of the demand and supply strengthens the extent of the price fluctuations, to have a serious impact on the pig industry.
(5) Based on the above analysis, some effective measures and specific measures are brought out to ease the price fluctuations of hogs. Including strengthening the guidance of macroeconomic policy, strengthening the construction of the government's macroeconomic control mechanisms; accelerating the construction of pig disease prevention and control system; improving the national macroeconomic monitoring and warning systems; accelerating the development of "hog futures" market; speeding up the change of pig production patterns and so on. These measures will have a very positive practical significance to curb sharp fluctuations of hogs price.
在市场供求规律的作用下,我国生猪价格呈现周期性波动状态。近年来,生猪价格的波动周期延长,波动幅度加大,价格的大起大落导致广大生猪饲养者不断调整产量,致使产量陷入一种“短缺”与“过剩”的循环波动之中,这一现象反过来又加剧了价格的波动。所以说,价格波动和生产波动是中国生猪产业最主要的内涵特征,这既影响了生产者的利益,也影响了消费者的福利,对国民经济的平衡发展起到了负面影响。因此,价格波动问题是生猪产业发展的核心问题,对其加以研究具有非常重要的现实意义。
本文旨在研究改革开放后我国生猪价格波动的特征与成因。即从历史数据或调查数据出发,对我国生猪市场的波动情况进行描述和分析,旨在把握生猪价格波动的总体特征和地区特征:同时对形成这种波动的主要影响因素进行分析,旨在明确各主要影响因素的影响方式、影响机理以及一些因素的影响程度。
为了上述目标的实现,本文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,以价格波动的相关理论和文献分析为基础,对我国生猪价格波动的特征和成因进行研究,以期为缓解我国生猪价格波动探求解决对策。具体研究思路为:依据历史数据或调查数据对我国生猪市场的波动特征进行描述(包括生产波动和价格波动的总体特征和区域特征);分别对各影响因素进行单因素分析,重在分析其对价格的影响方式和影响机理,进而采用多元回归模型进行多因素分析,重在分析各因素对价格的影响程度,并以2007年猪价暴涨为实例,解析了各种因素综合作用的结果及带来的影响:最终为缓解我国生猪价格波动提出了可操作性的对策与建议。
论文的主要内容、运用的方法及结论如下:
(1)论文运用趋势分解法科学界定了短期波动和长期波动的内涵,分别用速度法和趋势分解法对生猪价格和生产的短期波动进行测定,对我国生猪生产波动和价格波动的总体特征作了描述与分析,结果表明:生猪价格波动程度高于产量波动程度。通过计算代表长期波动程度的变异指数和变异系数指标,同样能得到这一结论。把生猪价格变异率和产量变异率置于同一坐标中,以分析二者之间的依存关系,可以看出二者在总体上有近似反向运动的倾向,这对以往研究是个有益的补充。
(2)运用趋势分解法计算变异指数,以其描述和分析我国生猪的产量和价格在区域间和省际间的波动特征;同时运用方差分解法分析不同区域、省份的产量对总产量的影响程度及其内在联系。结果表明:以生猪输出为主的区域产量波动程度高,而价格波动程度低,尤以经济水平不够发达的东北区和西南区为代表:产量大或产量波动程度高的省份极易对区域产量波动造成较大影响:产量小的省份对区域产量波动起到了抑制作用,但其价格波动程度往往较高:生猪主产区大多有较低的价格变异指数,产量小的生猪主销区价格变异指数较高,集生猪主销区和主产区为一体的省份产量变异指数和价格变异指数均较低。这部分内容的研究具有一定创新性。
(3)论文运用内部传导和外部冲击波动理论分析了我国生猪价格波动成因与机理。采用模型分析与理论分析相结合的方法,全面分析生猪价格波动各影响因素的作用方式和影响机理。内部传导因素包括:生猪的生长周期、生产者供给行为、生产成本、产业链利益分配、生产结构;外部冲击因素包括疫情等突发事件、宏观调控手段、替代品价格、收入水平与经济周期等因素。
(4)采用多元回归模型对可以量化的生猪价格的主要影响因素进行实证研究,并以2007年生猪价格暴涨为实例,解析其形成原因及对生活和社会带来的影响。基于供求层面,选择主要影响因素分析其对生猪价格的影响程度,实证模型结果表明:玉米价格(代表投入品价格)是最重要的影响因素,其对生猪价格的边际影响最大;另外,仔猪价格是影响较大的因素,当前这种仔猪随肥猪价格跟涨的现象是制约生猪产业发展一大隐患;生产者价格预期和替代品价格对生猪价格波动的影响不大;疫情对生猪价格波动的边际影响为负数,主要模拟的是来自需求面的影响,同时指出疫情对需求和供给影响的非同步性加强了波动的振幅,给生猪产业带来严重冲击。
(5)在上述研究的基础上,提出缓解生猪价格波动的有效措施和具体对策。包括加强宏观政策的引导:加强政府宏观调控机制建设;加快完善生猪疫病防控体系建设:完善国家生猪生产宏观监测与预警系统;加快推进“生猪期货”市场发展;加速生猪生产模式的转变等,这些措施对于抑制生猪价格的剧烈波动具有十分积极的现实意义。
The pig industry is still dominated in the structure of China's animal husbandry, the proportion of pork 65%(2005 and 2006). According to information from the Fourth World Fork Meeting held by World Meat Organization in 2007, the pork output from China(51.97 million ton) account for 50.1% in the output of world in 2006, located in first place. In addition, The pig industry have played an irreplaceable role in many aspects, such as the expanding rural employment, increasing the income of farmers, promoting the development of agriculture and related industries, revitalizing rural economy and so on. Therefore, the pig industry's stability and development is not only related to China's animal husbandry, but also related to agricultural development, rural construction and fanners incomes, further related to the national economy's sustainable and stable development.
Under the law of supply and demand, the price of hog showed cyclical state. In recent years, the fluctuation cycle of hog price has been extended, with increasing range. The price fluctuations caused the many farmers to adjust production, resulting in output into the cycle of "shortage" and "excess", which aggravated price fluctuations. So the fluctuations of price and production is the most important characteristics of pig industry in China, which not only affects the interests of the producers, but also affected the welfare of consumers, having a negative impact to the unbalanced development of the national economy. Therefore, the price fluctuation of hog is the core issue of industrial development, the research to which have very important theoretical and practical significance.
This thesis aims to study the characteristics and causes of the hog price fluctuations after China's reform and opening up. Starting from the historical data, China's hog market fluctuation is described and analyzed to grasp the characteristics of price fluctuation; The main factors inducing fluctuations are analyzed to clear the affecting ways, affecting mechanism of all the major factors and the affecting degree of a number of factors.
In order to achieve above aims, a combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are used. On the base of the price fluctuations theory and references analysis, the characteristics and causes of China's hog price fluctuations is studied, in order to explore the measures to alleviating China's hog price fluctuation. Specific methods for the study: Based on historical data or survey data, China's hog fluctuations characteristics is describe(including the overall features and geographical features on output fluctuations and price fluctuations); the single factor is analyzed to clear the affecting ways, affecting mechanism, then multiple regression model is used to analyze affecting degree of a number of factors. Take price skyrocketing of hog in 2007 for example, the result and the impact from various factors is analyzed. All of which aims to bring about workable Countermeasures and suggestions to relieve China's hog price fluctuations.
The main content, methods and conclusions of this thesis are as follows:
(1) The content of short-term fluctuations and long-term fluctuations is defined by using the "trend decomposition", the "speed" and the "trend decomposition" is used respectively to measure the short-term fluctuations of pig prices and production. A description and Analysis on the overall features fluctuation of hog output and price fluctuations showed that: the price fluctuations level is higher than that of output fluctuations. By calculating variation index and the coefficient of variation(on behalf of long-term fluctuation), the same conclusion can be showed. Put the ratio of variation of price and output into the same coordinates to analyze the interdependence between the two, similar reversal change trend in general can be seen. Which is a useful complement to the past study.
(2) Use the "trend decomposition" to calculate the variation index, with which the regional fluctuation characteristics of the output and price are described and analyzed. At the same time, variance decomposition method is used to analyze the impact that the different regions, provinces give the gross output and internal relations. The results showed that: the regions to export hogs have a higher output fluctuation level and a lower price fluctuation level, especially less developed areas such as the Northeast and Southwest areas; the provinces with large output or with higher output fluctuation level have greater impact on regional output; the provinces with small output have weaker impact on regional output fluctuations; Most of the main sales provinces with small output have a higher price variation index, the main producing provinces have a lower price variation index. The research of this part includes some innovative contents.
(3)With the theory of internal transmission and external shock, the causes and mechanism of hog price fluctuations are analyzed. the models and theoretical analysis are combined to analyze the causes and mechanism of all influencing factors. The internal factors include the special growing process of hogs, producers' supply, the cost of production and interests distribution of the industrial chain; The external factors include the impact of the epidemic (unexpected events), the macro-control measures, the prices of substitutes, the income levels etc.
(4)The multiple regression model is used to have the empirical research on main factors affecting prices of hogs. Take skyrocketing prices of hogs in 2007 as an example, analysis of the causes and the impact on life and society are analyzed. Based on supply and demand, the main factors is selected to analyze the extent of influencing price. The results showed that corn prices (on behalf of input prices) is the most important factors affecting the price of hogs. Its marginal impact is the largest. In addition, the price of piglets is a greater impact. The expected producer prices and prices of substitutes have a weak impact. The epidemic has a negative marginal impact on the price of hogs from the demand. At the same time, the non-synchronous step of the demand and supply strengthens the extent of the price fluctuations, to have a serious impact on the pig industry.
(5) Based on the above analysis, some effective measures and specific measures are brought out to ease the price fluctuations of hogs. Including strengthening the guidance of macroeconomic policy, strengthening the construction of the government's macroeconomic control mechanisms; accelerating the construction of pig disease prevention and control system; improving the national macroeconomic monitoring and warning systems; accelerating the development of "hog futures" market; speeding up the change of pig production patterns and so on. These measures will have a very positive practical significance to curb sharp fluctuations of hogs price.
引文
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