重庆市住宅属性需求的实证分析
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摘要
经过了二十多年的改革，中国住房制度已基本进入了稳步发展的时期。1998年7月国务院《关于深化住房制度改革加快住宅建设的通知》中，决定在我国实行住房分类供应体系，明确了我国将实行以市场机制为主，辅以适当的政府宏观调控和福利住房制度的住宅产业发展方式。无论是政府福利住房制度的制定，还是商品住宅开发者的开发行为，都应以充分的了解我国各城市住宅市场需求和住宅消费者行为为前提。但目前这方面的研究大多仅停留在结合数据的描述性分析上，很少有正式的经验数据分析。
这篇论文系统的估计了重庆市住宅租赁和住宅交易市场需求的各种弹性，其中以收入弹性和价格弹性为主。此实证分析的数据来自对重庆市主城区居民家庭的抽样调查。调查以问卷的方式，搜集了住户家庭情况和其居住住宅情况这两个方面的数据。在模型方面，主要借鉴了Rosen的两阶段需求模型的思想，建立了重庆市住宅属性需求模型。然后，以搜集到的有效数据对建立的经验模型的参数进行了估计，从而得到了重庆市住宅属性需求的收入、价格及其他弹性。
从研究结果看，家庭收入是影响住宅需求的最重要的因素，其次是住宅属性价格，而反映消费者偏好的因素——如：户主年龄、户主性别等对住宅需求的影响并不明显。重庆市住宅面积属性需求的收入及价格弹性的绝对值均小于1，收入弹性一般位于0.4到0.6之间，价格弹性一般位于0.2到0.3之间，说明在重庆住宅面积需求对家庭收入和住宅属性价格均缺乏弹性。
另外，此论文对模型具体数学形式的选择和收入变量的定义方式进行了讨论。分别采用了线性和对数形式对需求模型进行了估计，认为住宅属性需求弹性——特别是收入弹性和价格弹性对模型的数学形式的选择并不敏感。而在收入变量的定义方面，以长期收入定义的收入变量回归的拟合优度略高，计算出的收入弹性也比以当期收入定义收入变量所得到的收入弹性要略高一些。
After more than 20 years' housing innovation, Chinese housing system is developing stably now. In July 1998, the State Department of China issued "An Notify about Deepening the Housing System Innovation ", and decided to practice the hosing classical supply system. This document told us China would develop the housing industry mainly by market mechanism, and partly by the macro control of government and the welfare housing system. All parts in the housing industry should know well about housing demand and its customer's behavior of the city. But at present, there is no empirical analysis in this topic and just describing analysis is not enough.
This dissertation estimated housing demand elasticities, mainly the income and price elasticity, separately in rental and dealing market. The date in this dissertation is from a spot check of households in the main city zoon of Chongqing. We collected data on two aspects: one is the general data of the family; the other is of its house. Based on an adaptation of Rosen's two-stage model, we set up the model of the demand for housing attributes in Chongqing. Then estimated the coefficient in the model with the data we have collected and got the income, price and other elasticities of the demand for housing attributes in Chongqing.
This empirical analysis reveals that the most important determinant of the demand for housing attributes is income, and price in the second place. Other determinants, as age or gender of household head, which reflect the test of customers, have a little influence. The absolute values for income and price elasticity of demand for housing area attribute in Chongqing are both less than one. The income elasticity is mainly between 0.4 and 0.6, and price elasticity between 0.2 and 0.3. These indicate that the demand for housing attributes is inelastic in Chongqing.
In addition, the paper discussed the mathematic form of the model and the definition for the income variable. After using linear and log form, we found the elasticity of demand for housing attribute, especially the price elasticity and income elasticity, vary a little with the different mathematic form of the model. For the aspect on the definition for the income variable, permanent income got a higher R2 and came out a bigger income-elasticity than current income.
这篇论文系统的估计了重庆市住宅租赁和住宅交易市场需求的各种弹性，其中以收入弹性和价格弹性为主。此实证分析的数据来自对重庆市主城区居民家庭的抽样调查。调查以问卷的方式，搜集了住户家庭情况和其居住住宅情况这两个方面的数据。在模型方面，主要借鉴了Rosen的两阶段需求模型的思想，建立了重庆市住宅属性需求模型。然后，以搜集到的有效数据对建立的经验模型的参数进行了估计，从而得到了重庆市住宅属性需求的收入、价格及其他弹性。
从研究结果看，家庭收入是影响住宅需求的最重要的因素，其次是住宅属性价格，而反映消费者偏好的因素——如：户主年龄、户主性别等对住宅需求的影响并不明显。重庆市住宅面积属性需求的收入及价格弹性的绝对值均小于1，收入弹性一般位于0.4到0.6之间，价格弹性一般位于0.2到0.3之间，说明在重庆住宅面积需求对家庭收入和住宅属性价格均缺乏弹性。
另外，此论文对模型具体数学形式的选择和收入变量的定义方式进行了讨论。分别采用了线性和对数形式对需求模型进行了估计，认为住宅属性需求弹性——特别是收入弹性和价格弹性对模型的数学形式的选择并不敏感。而在收入变量的定义方面，以长期收入定义的收入变量回归的拟合优度略高，计算出的收入弹性也比以当期收入定义收入变量所得到的收入弹性要略高一些。
After more than 20 years' housing innovation, Chinese housing system is developing stably now. In July 1998, the State Department of China issued "An Notify about Deepening the Housing System Innovation ", and decided to practice the hosing classical supply system. This document told us China would develop the housing industry mainly by market mechanism, and partly by the macro control of government and the welfare housing system. All parts in the housing industry should know well about housing demand and its customer's behavior of the city. But at present, there is no empirical analysis in this topic and just describing analysis is not enough.
This dissertation estimated housing demand elasticities, mainly the income and price elasticity, separately in rental and dealing market. The date in this dissertation is from a spot check of households in the main city zoon of Chongqing. We collected data on two aspects: one is the general data of the family; the other is of its house. Based on an adaptation of Rosen's two-stage model, we set up the model of the demand for housing attributes in Chongqing. Then estimated the coefficient in the model with the data we have collected and got the income, price and other elasticities of the demand for housing attributes in Chongqing.
This empirical analysis reveals that the most important determinant of the demand for housing attributes is income, and price in the second place. Other determinants, as age or gender of household head, which reflect the test of customers, have a little influence. The absolute values for income and price elasticity of demand for housing area attribute in Chongqing are both less than one. The income elasticity is mainly between 0.4 and 0.6, and price elasticity between 0.2 and 0.3. These indicate that the demand for housing attributes is inelastic in Chongqing.
In addition, the paper discussed the mathematic form of the model and the definition for the income variable. After using linear and log form, we found the elasticity of demand for housing attribute, especially the price elasticity and income elasticity, vary a little with the different mathematic form of the model. For the aspect on the definition for the income variable, permanent income got a higher R2 and came out a bigger income-elasticity than current income.
引文
[1] Arimah, B. C. An Empirical Analysis of the Demand for Housing Attributes in a Third World City. Land Economics. 1992.68(4). 366-379
[2] Chau K. W. Real Estate Research in Asia - Past, Present and the Future. Journal of the Asian Real Estate Society. 1998. 1(1). 1-16
[3] Clauretie, T. M. A Note on the Bias in House Price Capitalization Models. AREUEA Journal, 1983. 11(4). 521-524
[4] Elder. H. W. and Zumpano, L. V. Tenure Choice, Housing Demand and Residential Location80 Journal of Real Estate Research. 1991.6(3).341-356
[5] Gibb, K. Modelling Housing Choice and Demand in Social Housing System: The Case of Glasgow. Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Seminar No. S00-001. 2000. Berkeley: University of California
[6] Gill, H. L. and Haurin, D. R. User Cost and the Demand for Housing Attributes. AREUEA Journal 1991. 19(3). 383-395
[7] Grootaert, C. and Dubois, J. The Demand for Urban Housing in the Ivory Coast. World Bank LSMS Working Papers 25. 1986. Washington, D.C.: World Bank
[8] Hsueh L. The Relationship between Housing Price, Tenure Choice and Saving Behavior in Taiwan. International Real Estate Review. 2000. 3(1). 11-33
[9] Ingram, G. K. Housing Demand in the Developing Metropolis: Estimates from Bogota and Cali, Colombia. World Bank Staff Working Papers 663. 1984. Washington, D.C.: World Bank
[10] Jones, L. E. The Characteristics Model, Hedonic Prices and the Clientele Effect. Journal of Political Economy. 1988.96(3). 551-567
[11] Johnson. M. S. A Cash Flow Model of Rational Housing Tenure Choice. AREUEA Journal, 1981. 9. 1-17
[12] Lang, J. R. and Jones, W. H. Hedonic Property Valuation Models: Are Subjective Measures of Neighborhood Amenities Needed? AREUEA Journal, 1979.7.451-465
[13] Malpezzi, S. and Mayo, S. K. The Demand for Housing in Developing Countries: Empirical Estimates from Household Data. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 1987. .687-721
[14] Megbolugbe, F. I., Marks, A. P. and Schwartz, M. B. The Economic Theory of Housing Demand: A Critical Review. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1991.6(3).381-393
[15] Merrill. S. R. et al. The Feasibility of Estimating the Demand for Residential mortgage Credit in
Poland (Final Report). UI Project 06610-638. 1999. Washington, D. C.: The Urban Institute
[16]O'sullivan, A. Urban Economics. Third Edition. Washington, D. C.: Irwin/McGraw - Hill. 1996. 365-408
[17]Radcliffe, G. and Edmonds, J. A Theoretical Basic for Hedonic Regression: A Research Primer. AREUEA Journal, 1984. 12(1). 72-85
[18]Rosen, S. Hedonic Price and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition. Journal of Political Economy. 1974. 82(Jan.). 34-55
[19]Rosiers, F. D. and Theriault, M. Rental Amenities and the Stability of Hedonic Price: A Comparative Analysis of Five Market Segments. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1996. 12(1).17-36
[20]Rosiers, F. D., Theriault. M. and Villeneuve. P. Sorting Out Access and Neighborhood Factors in Hedonic Price Modeling. Journal of Property Investment & Finance. 2000. 18(3). 291-315
[21]Smith, L. B., Rosen, K.T. and Fallis, G. Recent Development in Economic Model of Housing Markets. Journal of Economic Literature. 1988.26(Mar.). 29-64
[22]So, H. M., Tse, R. Y. C. and Ganesan, S. Estimating the influence of transport on House Price: Evidence from Hong Kong. Journal of Property Valuation &Investment. 1997. 15(1). 40-47
[23]Tiwari, P. Housing Demand in Tokyo. International Real Estate Review. 2000.3(1). 65-92
[24]Zan Yang. An Application of the Hedonic Price Model with Uncertain attribute - The Case of the People's Republic of China. Property Management. 2001. 19(1). 50-63
[25]陈钊．住房抵押贷款理论与实践．上海：复旦大学出版社．2000．30-39
[26]赫希(美)．刘世庆译．城市经济学．北京：中国社会科学出版社．1990．89-168
[27]山田浩之(日)．城市经济学．大连：东北财经大学出版社．1991．104-130
[28]孟晓晨．西方城市经济学——理论与方法．北京：北京大学出版社．1992．154-166
[29]朱慕唐，张海宁，王伯言．西方城市经济学．北京：中国财政经济出版社．1988．69-97
[30]罗伯特 S．平狄克，丹尼尔L．鲁兵费尔德(美)．钱小军等译．计量经济模型与经济预测．第四版．北京：机械工业出版社．1999
[31]李子奈，叶阿忠．高等计量经济学．北京：清华大学出版社．2000
[32]刘显广．市场经济条件下的住房供给与需求——房地产市场理论研究之一．北京联合大学学报．1995．9(2)．48-53
[33]元琳，唐根年，虞晓芬．浅析房地产价格指数编制的理论与方法．中国房地产．2000．总第231期．44-46
[34]重庆市统计局．重庆统计年鉴(2001)．北京：中国统计出版社．2001．
[35]重庆市统计局．重庆统计年鉴(2002)．北京：中国统计出版社．2002．
[36]重庆市国土资源和房屋管理局主办．重庆房地产市场报告．2001．第4-7期．
[2] Chau K. W. Real Estate Research in Asia - Past, Present and the Future. Journal of the Asian Real Estate Society. 1998. 1(1). 1-16
[3] Clauretie, T. M. A Note on the Bias in House Price Capitalization Models. AREUEA Journal, 1983. 11(4). 521-524
[4] Elder. H. W. and Zumpano, L. V. Tenure Choice, Housing Demand and Residential Location80 Journal of Real Estate Research. 1991.6(3).341-356
[5] Gibb, K. Modelling Housing Choice and Demand in Social Housing System: The Case of Glasgow. Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Seminar No. S00-001. 2000. Berkeley: University of California
[6] Gill, H. L. and Haurin, D. R. User Cost and the Demand for Housing Attributes. AREUEA Journal 1991. 19(3). 383-395
[7] Grootaert, C. and Dubois, J. The Demand for Urban Housing in the Ivory Coast. World Bank LSMS Working Papers 25. 1986. Washington, D.C.: World Bank
[8] Hsueh L. The Relationship between Housing Price, Tenure Choice and Saving Behavior in Taiwan. International Real Estate Review. 2000. 3(1). 11-33
[9] Ingram, G. K. Housing Demand in the Developing Metropolis: Estimates from Bogota and Cali, Colombia. World Bank Staff Working Papers 663. 1984. Washington, D.C.: World Bank
[10] Jones, L. E. The Characteristics Model, Hedonic Prices and the Clientele Effect. Journal of Political Economy. 1988.96(3). 551-567
[11] Johnson. M. S. A Cash Flow Model of Rational Housing Tenure Choice. AREUEA Journal, 1981. 9. 1-17
[12] Lang, J. R. and Jones, W. H. Hedonic Property Valuation Models: Are Subjective Measures of Neighborhood Amenities Needed? AREUEA Journal, 1979.7.451-465
[13] Malpezzi, S. and Mayo, S. K. The Demand for Housing in Developing Countries: Empirical Estimates from Household Data. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 1987. .687-721
[14] Megbolugbe, F. I., Marks, A. P. and Schwartz, M. B. The Economic Theory of Housing Demand: A Critical Review. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1991.6(3).381-393
[15] Merrill. S. R. et al. The Feasibility of Estimating the Demand for Residential mortgage Credit in
Poland (Final Report). UI Project 06610-638. 1999. Washington, D. C.: The Urban Institute
[16]O'sullivan, A. Urban Economics. Third Edition. Washington, D. C.: Irwin/McGraw - Hill. 1996. 365-408
[17]Radcliffe, G. and Edmonds, J. A Theoretical Basic for Hedonic Regression: A Research Primer. AREUEA Journal, 1984. 12(1). 72-85
[18]Rosen, S. Hedonic Price and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition. Journal of Political Economy. 1974. 82(Jan.). 34-55
[19]Rosiers, F. D. and Theriault, M. Rental Amenities and the Stability of Hedonic Price: A Comparative Analysis of Five Market Segments. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1996. 12(1).17-36
[20]Rosiers, F. D., Theriault. M. and Villeneuve. P. Sorting Out Access and Neighborhood Factors in Hedonic Price Modeling. Journal of Property Investment & Finance. 2000. 18(3). 291-315
[21]Smith, L. B., Rosen, K.T. and Fallis, G. Recent Development in Economic Model of Housing Markets. Journal of Economic Literature. 1988.26(Mar.). 29-64
[22]So, H. M., Tse, R. Y. C. and Ganesan, S. Estimating the influence of transport on House Price: Evidence from Hong Kong. Journal of Property Valuation &Investment. 1997. 15(1). 40-47
[23]Tiwari, P. Housing Demand in Tokyo. International Real Estate Review. 2000.3(1). 65-92
[24]Zan Yang. An Application of the Hedonic Price Model with Uncertain attribute - The Case of the People's Republic of China. Property Management. 2001. 19(1). 50-63
[25]陈钊．住房抵押贷款理论与实践．上海：复旦大学出版社．2000．30-39
[26]赫希(美)．刘世庆译．城市经济学．北京：中国社会科学出版社．1990．89-168
[27]山田浩之(日)．城市经济学．大连：东北财经大学出版社．1991．104-130
[28]孟晓晨．西方城市经济学——理论与方法．北京：北京大学出版社．1992．154-166
[29]朱慕唐，张海宁，王伯言．西方城市经济学．北京：中国财政经济出版社．1988．69-97
[30]罗伯特 S．平狄克，丹尼尔L．鲁兵费尔德(美)．钱小军等译．计量经济模型与经济预测．第四版．北京：机械工业出版社．1999
[31]李子奈，叶阿忠．高等计量经济学．北京：清华大学出版社．2000
[32]刘显广．市场经济条件下的住房供给与需求——房地产市场理论研究之一．北京联合大学学报．1995．9(2)．48-53
[33]元琳，唐根年，虞晓芬．浅析房地产价格指数编制的理论与方法．中国房地产．2000．总第231期．44-46
[34]重庆市统计局．重庆统计年鉴(2001)．北京：中国统计出版社．2001．
[35]重庆市统计局．重庆统计年鉴(2002)．北京：中国统计出版社．2002．
[36]重庆市国土资源和房屋管理局主办．重庆房地产市场报告．2001．第4-7期．