基于享乐分析的城市住宅价格研究
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摘要
目前,我国许多城市都出现了住宅价格普遍上涨的现象,而不同城市间在住宅价格水平和住宅价格上涨速度上也存在着明显的差异：大城市的房价远远高于中小城市,且具有更快的上涨速度,而普通的中小城市,房价水平依然很低。是哪些因素导致了住宅价格在城市间如此大的差异呢?本文试图运用享乐分析理论(又称特征价格理论),通过对中国35个主要城市的城市相关环境“舒适”属性与住房价格进行实证研究,解释我国目前不同城市住宅在价格水平以及增长速度上的差异,进而探讨这种差异,以及可以反映城市住宅价格的关键性环境因素。
首先,本文研究了我国城市商品住房价格的基本理论与影响因素,以及住房价格与城市自然环境、经济环境、社会服务环境等城市环境因素的相关关系,并通过全国主要城市相关数据分析和理论研究,分析了城市中能够反映住房价值的假设性因素；其次,通过研究享乐分析方法的相关理论及其在建立住房价格模型中的应用,建立了城市间住房享乐价格(特征价格)函数；然后,通过建立的城市间享乐价格模型,利用中国主要城市数据,对享乐价格模型从面板数据和横截面上分别进行实证分析,表明城市的经济环境、区位及自然环境、城市公共服务环境等城市舒适属性之间的差异决定着城市间房价水平；而且本文通过城市间享乐价格模型建立了城市享乐价格指数,并且利用我国主要城市数据进行实证分析,得出我国主要城市的自然环境、经济环境和社会服务环境在逐渐改善,城市舒适属性的提高最终促进城市房价的提升。本文的研究在于能够客观地界定城市住房价格与一定经济水平下城市提供的“舒适”属性的关系,并且说明增强城市“舒适”属性对促进城市发展的积极作用,从而为政府平抑房价、促进城市发展提供理论支持。
At present, the generally upward phenomena of the house price have appeared in a lot of cities in our country, and it is obvious differente at the level of the house price and upward speed of the house price among different cities: The house price of the big city are far higher than the small and medium-sized cities, and have the upward speed faster, and the ordinary small and medium-sized cities, the level of the house price is still very low. Which factors have caused the price of the house in so great a difference among the cities? This text attempts to use the theory of hedonic (also call the theory of the characteristic price), through carrying on the positive research to " comfortable attribute " of relevant environments of city and price of house of 35 main cities in China, explain different differences on the level of the price and growth rate of urban house at present in our country, and then probe into this kind of difference, and the key environmental factors that can reflect the house price of urban.
First of all, this text has studied the basic theories of the urban commercial housing price and influence factor of our country, and the relevant relations between price of the house and urban natural environment, economic environment, community service environment,etc., and through the relevant data analysis and theoretical research of national main cities, have analysed the assumption factors that can reflect the value of the house in the city; Secondly, through studying on the relevant theory of hedonic analyze and in setting up the model of house hedonic price, this text has set up the function of hedonic price (the characteristic price); Then, through the hedonic price model among the cities that is set up, utilize China's main urban data, the price model carries on real example analysis respectively from the panel data and cross section to indulging in material comfort, Indicate that the difference among comfortable attribute of indicating in the economic environment, position, natural environment, city public service environment of the city etc. is determining the level of the house price among the cities; And this text sets up the city hedonic price index through the modle ot hedonic price, and utilize our country's main urban data to carry on the real example and analyse, drawing that the natural environment, economic environment and community service environment of the main city of our country are improving gradually, the improvement of the comfortable attribute in the city promotes the promotion of the urban house price finally. Research of this text can objective the interreaction between the house price and the " comfortable attribute "of cities under the certain economic level, and explan the positive function of Enhancing the " comfortable attribute " to promote the development of cities,whith can offer the theory supporting that can be used to stabilize house piece ane promote the development of cities.
首先,本文研究了我国城市商品住房价格的基本理论与影响因素,以及住房价格与城市自然环境、经济环境、社会服务环境等城市环境因素的相关关系,并通过全国主要城市相关数据分析和理论研究,分析了城市中能够反映住房价值的假设性因素；其次,通过研究享乐分析方法的相关理论及其在建立住房价格模型中的应用,建立了城市间住房享乐价格(特征价格)函数；然后,通过建立的城市间享乐价格模型,利用中国主要城市数据,对享乐价格模型从面板数据和横截面上分别进行实证分析,表明城市的经济环境、区位及自然环境、城市公共服务环境等城市舒适属性之间的差异决定着城市间房价水平；而且本文通过城市间享乐价格模型建立了城市享乐价格指数,并且利用我国主要城市数据进行实证分析,得出我国主要城市的自然环境、经济环境和社会服务环境在逐渐改善,城市舒适属性的提高最终促进城市房价的提升。本文的研究在于能够客观地界定城市住房价格与一定经济水平下城市提供的“舒适”属性的关系,并且说明增强城市“舒适”属性对促进城市发展的积极作用,从而为政府平抑房价、促进城市发展提供理论支持。
At present, the generally upward phenomena of the house price have appeared in a lot of cities in our country, and it is obvious differente at the level of the house price and upward speed of the house price among different cities: The house price of the big city are far higher than the small and medium-sized cities, and have the upward speed faster, and the ordinary small and medium-sized cities, the level of the house price is still very low. Which factors have caused the price of the house in so great a difference among the cities? This text attempts to use the theory of hedonic (also call the theory of the characteristic price), through carrying on the positive research to " comfortable attribute " of relevant environments of city and price of house of 35 main cities in China, explain different differences on the level of the price and growth rate of urban house at present in our country, and then probe into this kind of difference, and the key environmental factors that can reflect the house price of urban.
First of all, this text has studied the basic theories of the urban commercial housing price and influence factor of our country, and the relevant relations between price of the house and urban natural environment, economic environment, community service environment,etc., and through the relevant data analysis and theoretical research of national main cities, have analysed the assumption factors that can reflect the value of the house in the city; Secondly, through studying on the relevant theory of hedonic analyze and in setting up the model of house hedonic price, this text has set up the function of hedonic price (the characteristic price); Then, through the hedonic price model among the cities that is set up, utilize China's main urban data, the price model carries on real example analysis respectively from the panel data and cross section to indulging in material comfort, Indicate that the difference among comfortable attribute of indicating in the economic environment, position, natural environment, city public service environment of the city etc. is determining the level of the house price among the cities; And this text sets up the city hedonic price index through the modle ot hedonic price, and utilize our country's main urban data to carry on the real example and analyse, drawing that the natural environment, economic environment and community service environment of the main city of our country are improving gradually, the improvement of the comfortable attribute in the city promotes the promotion of the urban house price finally. Research of this text can objective the interreaction between the house price and the " comfortable attribute "of cities under the certain economic level, and explan the positive function of Enhancing the " comfortable attribute " to promote the development of cities,whith can offer the theory supporting that can be used to stabilize house piece ane promote the development of cities.
引文
[1]Jennifer Roback. Wages, Rents, Quality of life. The Journal of Political Economy (Nov.1982):1257-1278
[2]Gavin Adlington, et al., Developing Real Estate Markets in Transition EconomPaper for the LJN Intergovernmental Conference,6-8 December 2000, Geneva
[3]Mark C. Berger. Compensating Differentials in Emerging Labor and Housing Markets: Estimates of Quality of life in Russian Cities. Institute for the Study of Laboe (Oct,2003)
[4]Blomquist, Glenn C., Mark C. Berger, and John P. Hoehn. New Estimates of Quality of life in Urban Areas. American Economic Review 78 (March 1988):89-107
[5]Gyourko, Joseph and Joseph Tracy. The Structure of Local Pubic Finance and the Quality of life. Journal of Political Economic 99 (August 1991):774-806
[6]Stover, Mark E. and Charles L. Leven. Methodological Issues in the Determination of the Quality of life in Urban Areas. Urban Studies 29,5(1992):737-754
[7]Linneman,P. Some empirical results on the nature of the hedonic price function for the urban housing marker. Journal of Urban Economic 8(1980):47-68
[8]Linneman,P. Hedonic price and residential location', in C.D. Diamond and G.Tolley, eds., The economic of urban amenities of urban amenities, New York(1980):Academic Press
[9]Friedman, A.M. A conditional logit model of local public services in residential choice. Urban Studies,18:347-358
[10]Cropper, M.L. The value of urban amenities'.Journal of Regional Science,1981,(21):359-374
[11][英]Kenneth J. Arrowl：保罗·切希尔),[美]Edwin S. Mills(埃德温·S·米尔斯).Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics volume 2 urban economics经济科学出版社2003.11
[12]Edwin S. Mills(埃德温·S·米尔斯).Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics volume 2 urban economics经济科学出版社2003.9
[13]郑思齐,曹洋.城市价值在住房价格中的显性化及其政策含义,城市问题,2008,(01)：4-7
[14]熊华平.中国城市房地产发展轨迹与增量影响因子研究,西安建筑科技大学博士论文,2003.5
[15]李劲,王兵,徐瑞红,李书君.城市生活环境质量要素总体评价分析方法探索,环境与可持续发展,2006,(06)：20-22
[16]杨继瑞,章成蓉.房地产价格运行轨迹的近期前瞻,国土经济,1998.6
[17]唐勇林.生活质量才是检验城市价值的唯一标准,社区,2006,(21)：38-40
[18]方智毅.论城市生活质量评价体系的初步理论建构,湖南广播电视大学学报,2006,(04)：54-56[19]赵向红,陈胜涛.城乡生活质量差距比较研究.社会科学家,2006,(02)： 141-143
[20]中国城市生活质量评价体系.领导决策信息,2006,(38)：4-5
[21]徐林.房地产价格研究及价格指数模型设计,东南大学硕士论文,2004.3
[22]陈东虎.功能对房地产价格影响的定量和定性分析,西安建筑科技大学硕士论文,2005.3
[23]陆歆弘.中国建筑业成长发展轨迹与经济增长因子研究.西安建筑科学大学博士论文,2003
[24]朱永升、王卫华.影响房地产市场需求因素的灰色关联度分析.北京理工大学学报,2002.12。
[25]王春艳、吴老二.人口迁移、城市圈与房地产价格.人口与经济,2007, (04)：63-68
[26]胡章明.基于神经网络房地产价格指数的预测研究.2006(02)：100-114
[27]胡金滨、唐旭清.人工神经网络的BP算法及其应用.信息技术.2004,(28)：1-4.
[28]朱妍.享乐价格理论及其在住房市场上的应用.区域经济与产业经济.2008
[29]郑其敏.通过非参数可加模型回归估计的享乐价格函数.2006(20)：24-26
[30]马思新等.基于Hedonic模型的北京住宅价格影响因素分析.清华大学土木工程学报,2003,(9)
[31]袁志刚：国家自然基金课题《对我国房地产市场泡沫的分析和控制——理论、实证与预警系统的建立》结题报告,2004[32]杨继瑞：国家自然基金课题《我国房地产预警系统研究》结题报告,2004
[33]李涛,伍建平.房地产泡沫的成因、评估与预控[J],建筑经济,2004.5
[34]段际凯.中国房地产市场可持续发展研究.复旦大学博士学位论文,2003.5。
[35]Gujarati,D.N.,林少宫译：计量经济学(第三版)[M],中国人民大学出版社,2000
[36]王维国.计量经济学[M],东北财经大学出版社,2002
[37]J.约翰,J.迪纳尔多：计量经济学方法,中国经济出版社,2002
[38]余建英、何旭宏.数据统计分析与SPSS应用,人民邮电出版社,2003.4
[39]卢纹岱.SPSS for Windows统计分析(第2版),电子工业出版社,2002
[40]于秀林,任雪松：多元统计分析[M],中国统计出版社,1999
[41]曾黄麟.智能计算.重庆大学出版社.2004
[42]张文修、吴伟志等.粗糙集理论与方法.科学出版社,2008
[43]张定胜.计量经济学.武汉大学出版社,2000
[44]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析.中国统计出版社,1999
[45]刘志彪.现代产业经济分析.南京大学出版社,200
[2]Gavin Adlington, et al., Developing Real Estate Markets in Transition EconomPaper for the LJN Intergovernmental Conference,6-8 December 2000, Geneva
[3]Mark C. Berger. Compensating Differentials in Emerging Labor and Housing Markets: Estimates of Quality of life in Russian Cities. Institute for the Study of Laboe (Oct,2003)
[4]Blomquist, Glenn C., Mark C. Berger, and John P. Hoehn. New Estimates of Quality of life in Urban Areas. American Economic Review 78 (March 1988):89-107
[5]Gyourko, Joseph and Joseph Tracy. The Structure of Local Pubic Finance and the Quality of life. Journal of Political Economic 99 (August 1991):774-806
[6]Stover, Mark E. and Charles L. Leven. Methodological Issues in the Determination of the Quality of life in Urban Areas. Urban Studies 29,5(1992):737-754
[7]Linneman,P. Some empirical results on the nature of the hedonic price function for the urban housing marker. Journal of Urban Economic 8(1980):47-68
[8]Linneman,P. Hedonic price and residential location', in C.D. Diamond and G.Tolley, eds., The economic of urban amenities of urban amenities, New York(1980):Academic Press
[9]Friedman, A.M. A conditional logit model of local public services in residential choice. Urban Studies,18:347-358
[10]Cropper, M.L. The value of urban amenities'.Journal of Regional Science,1981,(21):359-374
[11][英]Kenneth J. Arrowl：保罗·切希尔),[美]Edwin S. Mills(埃德温·S·米尔斯).Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics volume 2 urban economics经济科学出版社2003.11
[12]Edwin S. Mills(埃德温·S·米尔斯).Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics volume 2 urban economics经济科学出版社2003.9
[13]郑思齐,曹洋.城市价值在住房价格中的显性化及其政策含义,城市问题,2008,(01)：4-7
[14]熊华平.中国城市房地产发展轨迹与增量影响因子研究,西安建筑科技大学博士论文,2003.5
[15]李劲,王兵,徐瑞红,李书君.城市生活环境质量要素总体评价分析方法探索,环境与可持续发展,2006,(06)：20-22
[16]杨继瑞,章成蓉.房地产价格运行轨迹的近期前瞻,国土经济,1998.6
[17]唐勇林.生活质量才是检验城市价值的唯一标准,社区,2006,(21)：38-40
[18]方智毅.论城市生活质量评价体系的初步理论建构,湖南广播电视大学学报,2006,(04)：54-56[19]赵向红,陈胜涛.城乡生活质量差距比较研究.社会科学家,2006,(02)： 141-143
[20]中国城市生活质量评价体系.领导决策信息,2006,(38)：4-5
[21]徐林.房地产价格研究及价格指数模型设计,东南大学硕士论文,2004.3
[22]陈东虎.功能对房地产价格影响的定量和定性分析,西安建筑科技大学硕士论文,2005.3
[23]陆歆弘.中国建筑业成长发展轨迹与经济增长因子研究.西安建筑科学大学博士论文,2003
[24]朱永升、王卫华.影响房地产市场需求因素的灰色关联度分析.北京理工大学学报,2002.12。
[25]王春艳、吴老二.人口迁移、城市圈与房地产价格.人口与经济,2007, (04)：63-68
[26]胡章明.基于神经网络房地产价格指数的预测研究.2006(02)：100-114
[27]胡金滨、唐旭清.人工神经网络的BP算法及其应用.信息技术.2004,(28)：1-4.
[28]朱妍.享乐价格理论及其在住房市场上的应用.区域经济与产业经济.2008
[29]郑其敏.通过非参数可加模型回归估计的享乐价格函数.2006(20)：24-26
[30]马思新等.基于Hedonic模型的北京住宅价格影响因素分析.清华大学土木工程学报,2003,(9)
[31]袁志刚：国家自然基金课题《对我国房地产市场泡沫的分析和控制——理论、实证与预警系统的建立》结题报告,2004[32]杨继瑞：国家自然基金课题《我国房地产预警系统研究》结题报告,2004
[33]李涛,伍建平.房地产泡沫的成因、评估与预控[J],建筑经济,2004.5
[34]段际凯.中国房地产市场可持续发展研究.复旦大学博士学位论文,2003.5。
[35]Gujarati,D.N.,林少宫译：计量经济学(第三版)[M],中国人民大学出版社,2000
[36]王维国.计量经济学[M],东北财经大学出版社,2002
[37]J.约翰,J.迪纳尔多：计量经济学方法,中国经济出版社,2002
[38]余建英、何旭宏.数据统计分析与SPSS应用,人民邮电出版社,2003.4
[39]卢纹岱.SPSS for Windows统计分析(第2版),电子工业出版社,2002
[40]于秀林,任雪松：多元统计分析[M],中国统计出版社,1999
[41]曾黄麟.智能计算.重庆大学出版社.2004
[42]张文修、吴伟志等.粗糙集理论与方法.科学出版社,2008
[43]张定胜.计量经济学.武汉大学出版社,2000
[44]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析.中国统计出版社,1999
[45]刘志彪.现代产业经济分析.南京大学出版社,200