武汉新区住宅用地享乐价格研究
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摘要
2004年初,武汉市政府启动了武汉新区开发,了解和把握影响土地价格的关键性因素,是新区进行合理规划和安排,经营城市的前提条件。为了对解决这个问题提供一个思路,本文从土地的预期收益决定土地出让成本的思路出发,选择住宅价格影响因素为研究对象,试图建立武汉市住宅享乐价格模型,并在此基础上对住宅用地价格影响因素之间的数量关系进行研究。
本文第二部分,将对享乐价格分析法的理论及应用情况作一个回顾,针对模型存在的问题,提出初步解决方案,为以后的研究打下理论基础。
第三部分为数据描述部分,该部分初步筛选研究中所需的住宅特征变量,并定义变量的赋值方式,确定了数据来源。第四部分在数据分析的基础上,选择因子分析法、加权等方式对数据进行处理,使数据更具现实经济含义。
第五、六部分建立了武汉市住宅价格特征模型,并应用模型对新区内某一地块的土地出让金的回收情况做出预测。
本文研究的成果主要表现在:在应用因子分析法的基础上,构建了区位综合评价模型;建立了武汉市住宅享乐价格模型;测算了湖泊对土地价值影响的扩散半径;得出区位、自然环境、房地产价格之间的数量关系。
本文的研究方法和结论为武汉新区的合理规划、利用资源、配置资金提供了参考,同时为消费者购房提供了评价工具。
利用享乐价格法进行实证研究在国内还只是刚刚起步,本文的研究在一定意义上具有探索性,研究结论的可靠性和普适性还有待检验。未来的研究可以从住宅特征因素的选择与量化、模型函数形式的选优、市场细分等方面进行更多的实证研究。
In the early 2004, the Wuhan municipality started up the developing object of Wuhan New Area. It's a precondition to know and master the factors influencing the land price to Wuhan New Area's rational planning. This paper starts at the view that the prospective income of land decides the land remising cost, selecting the factors influencing the price of land used in housing as researching object, trying to find the hedonic housing price model for Wuhan, and on the basis of model, analyzing the factors influencing the land price quantitatively.In the second part of the paper, through reviewing the hedonic theory and its application, it brings forward potential questions that may exist in the application and their resolvent.The third part is data description including selecting and defining the hedonic variables, as well as confirming the source of data. On the basis of the third, the fourth part selects factor analysis and weighted techniques to repair the data.The fifth and sixth parts set up the hedonic housing price model for Wuhan, and make a prediction on certain lands' returning.The major innovations of the research is designing the location general evaluation model on the basis of factor analysis, founding the hedonic housing price model for Wuhan, calculating the influent radius of lakes to the value of land, and knowing the relationship among location, environment and housing price in quantitative.The methods and conclusions of the research afford valuable suggestions and decision support to the developing of Wuhan New Area, at the same time, providing consumers a kind of evaluation tool.Using hedonic price model to make demonstration research is just on the way in China. On a certain meaning it is just a research. The reliability and application of the conclusions still need to check in practice. In the future, the further demonstration research could be made on the hedonic variable's selection, the model equation's form selection, and market segmentation.
本文第二部分,将对享乐价格分析法的理论及应用情况作一个回顾,针对模型存在的问题,提出初步解决方案,为以后的研究打下理论基础。
第三部分为数据描述部分,该部分初步筛选研究中所需的住宅特征变量,并定义变量的赋值方式,确定了数据来源。第四部分在数据分析的基础上,选择因子分析法、加权等方式对数据进行处理,使数据更具现实经济含义。
第五、六部分建立了武汉市住宅价格特征模型,并应用模型对新区内某一地块的土地出让金的回收情况做出预测。
本文研究的成果主要表现在:在应用因子分析法的基础上,构建了区位综合评价模型;建立了武汉市住宅享乐价格模型;测算了湖泊对土地价值影响的扩散半径;得出区位、自然环境、房地产价格之间的数量关系。
本文的研究方法和结论为武汉新区的合理规划、利用资源、配置资金提供了参考,同时为消费者购房提供了评价工具。
利用享乐价格法进行实证研究在国内还只是刚刚起步,本文的研究在一定意义上具有探索性,研究结论的可靠性和普适性还有待检验。未来的研究可以从住宅特征因素的选择与量化、模型函数形式的选优、市场细分等方面进行更多的实证研究。
In the early 2004, the Wuhan municipality started up the developing object of Wuhan New Area. It's a precondition to know and master the factors influencing the land price to Wuhan New Area's rational planning. This paper starts at the view that the prospective income of land decides the land remising cost, selecting the factors influencing the price of land used in housing as researching object, trying to find the hedonic housing price model for Wuhan, and on the basis of model, analyzing the factors influencing the land price quantitatively.In the second part of the paper, through reviewing the hedonic theory and its application, it brings forward potential questions that may exist in the application and their resolvent.The third part is data description including selecting and defining the hedonic variables, as well as confirming the source of data. On the basis of the third, the fourth part selects factor analysis and weighted techniques to repair the data.The fifth and sixth parts set up the hedonic housing price model for Wuhan, and make a prediction on certain lands' returning.The major innovations of the research is designing the location general evaluation model on the basis of factor analysis, founding the hedonic housing price model for Wuhan, calculating the influent radius of lakes to the value of land, and knowing the relationship among location, environment and housing price in quantitative.The methods and conclusions of the research afford valuable suggestions and decision support to the developing of Wuhan New Area, at the same time, providing consumers a kind of evaluation tool.Using hedonic price model to make demonstration research is just on the way in China. On a certain meaning it is just a research. The reliability and application of the conclusions still need to check in practice. In the future, the further demonstration research could be made on the hedonic variable's selection, the model equation's form selection, and market segmentation.
引文
1.张红.房地产经济学讲义.清华大学出版社,2004
2.王贵岭.房地产经济.中国物价出版社,2003
3.张洪力.房地产经济学.机械工业出版社,2004
4.程汉忠.制造城市.中国水利水电出版社,2003
5.陈顺.城市增长与土地增值.科学出版社,2000
6.张凯等.城市生态住宅区建设研究.科学出版社,2003
7.段轮一等.武汉年鉴.武汉年鉴社,2003
8.David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, and Thomas A. Williares.商务与经济统计.机械工业出版社,1998.7
9.余建英,何旭宏.数据统计分析与SPSS应用.人民邮电出版社,2003.4
10.陈明,朱妍.享乐定价法在房地产中的应用研究分析,2003.09.http://ces.nankai.edu.cn/nkie
11.温海珍,贾生华.住宅的特征与特征的价格—基于特征价格模型的分析.浙江大学学报(工学版),2004.10
12.艾东.不动产价格评估中的环境因素分析综述.中国房地产估价师杂志,2003.09
13.游章圳.住宅用地市值推估模式之研究一以台中市第五期市地重划区为例.http://www.cyut .edu.tw
14. Brown Kenneth H, and Uyar Bulent. A Hierarchical Linear Model Approach for Assessing the Effects of House and Neighborhood Characteristics on Housing Prices, Journal of Real Estate Practice and Education, 2004
15. Brett Day, SUBMARKET IDENTIFICATION IN PROPERTY MARKETS: A HEDONIC HOUSING PRICE MODEL FOR GLASGOW, EDM 03-09, http://www.uea.ac.uk
16. Bernard Gress, Using Semi-Parametric Spatial Autocorrelation Models to Improve Hedonic Housing Price Prediction, 10/13/04, http://www.economics.ucr.edu
17. Yannis M. Ioannides, Jeffrey E. Zabel. NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECTS AND HOUSING DEMAND, 08/18/01, http://ase.tufts.edu/econ/papers
18. Taylor, L. O., and V. K. Smith "Environmental amenities as a source of market power," Land Economics, 76 (4), 550-568, 2000
19. Pendleton, L., and R. Mendelsohn, "Estimating recreation preferences using hedonic travel cost and random utility models," Environmental & Resource Economics, 17 (1), 89-108,2000
20. Lake, I. R., et al. "Using GIS and large-scale digital data to implement hedonic pricing studies," International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 14 (6), 521-541.2000
21. Hedonic Pricing Method, http://www.ecosystemvaluation.org
22.郑华.房地产市场分析方法.电子工业出版社,2003
23.马中.环境与资源经济学概论.高等教育出版社,1999
24.沈满洪.环境经济手段研究.中国环境科学出版社,2001
25.肖序.环境成本论.中国财政经济出版社,2002
26.郑捷奋,刘洪玉.城市轨道交通对房地产价值影响研究综述.铁道运输与经济,2003.10
27.赛娜.国内外房地产价格指数的编制方法比较.中国房地产,2003
28.中国房地产.如何正确衡量房地产价格走势.http://tj.focus.cn
29.程信和,刘国臻编著.房地产法.北京大学出版社,2001
30.叶剑平.房地产估价.中国人民大学出版社,2002
31.Naresh K. Malhotra,市场营销研究应用导向(第3版).电子工业出版社,2002
2.王贵岭.房地产经济.中国物价出版社,2003
3.张洪力.房地产经济学.机械工业出版社,2004
4.程汉忠.制造城市.中国水利水电出版社,2003
5.陈顺.城市增长与土地增值.科学出版社,2000
6.张凯等.城市生态住宅区建设研究.科学出版社,2003
7.段轮一等.武汉年鉴.武汉年鉴社,2003
8.David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, and Thomas A. Williares.商务与经济统计.机械工业出版社,1998.7
9.余建英,何旭宏.数据统计分析与SPSS应用.人民邮电出版社,2003.4
10.陈明,朱妍.享乐定价法在房地产中的应用研究分析,2003.09.http://ces.nankai.edu.cn/nkie
11.温海珍,贾生华.住宅的特征与特征的价格—基于特征价格模型的分析.浙江大学学报(工学版),2004.10
12.艾东.不动产价格评估中的环境因素分析综述.中国房地产估价师杂志,2003.09
13.游章圳.住宅用地市值推估模式之研究一以台中市第五期市地重划区为例.http://www.cyut .edu.tw
14. Brown Kenneth H, and Uyar Bulent. A Hierarchical Linear Model Approach for Assessing the Effects of House and Neighborhood Characteristics on Housing Prices, Journal of Real Estate Practice and Education, 2004
15. Brett Day, SUBMARKET IDENTIFICATION IN PROPERTY MARKETS: A HEDONIC HOUSING PRICE MODEL FOR GLASGOW, EDM 03-09, http://www.uea.ac.uk
16. Bernard Gress, Using Semi-Parametric Spatial Autocorrelation Models to Improve Hedonic Housing Price Prediction, 10/13/04, http://www.economics.ucr.edu
17. Yannis M. Ioannides, Jeffrey E. Zabel. NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECTS AND HOUSING DEMAND, 08/18/01, http://ase.tufts.edu/econ/papers
18. Taylor, L. O., and V. K. Smith "Environmental amenities as a source of market power," Land Economics, 76 (4), 550-568, 2000
19. Pendleton, L., and R. Mendelsohn, "Estimating recreation preferences using hedonic travel cost and random utility models," Environmental & Resource Economics, 17 (1), 89-108,2000
20. Lake, I. R., et al. "Using GIS and large-scale digital data to implement hedonic pricing studies," International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 14 (6), 521-541.2000
21. Hedonic Pricing Method, http://www.ecosystemvaluation.org
22.郑华.房地产市场分析方法.电子工业出版社,2003
23.马中.环境与资源经济学概论.高等教育出版社,1999
24.沈满洪.环境经济手段研究.中国环境科学出版社,2001
25.肖序.环境成本论.中国财政经济出版社,2002
26.郑捷奋,刘洪玉.城市轨道交通对房地产价值影响研究综述.铁道运输与经济,2003.10
27.赛娜.国内外房地产价格指数的编制方法比较.中国房地产,2003
28.中国房地产.如何正确衡量房地产价格走势.http://tj.focus.cn
29.程信和,刘国臻编著.房地产法.北京大学出版社,2001
30.叶剑平.房地产估价.中国人民大学出版社,2002
31.Naresh K. Malhotra,市场营销研究应用导向(第3版).电子工业出版社,2002