贸易条件变化的技术进步视角研究
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摘要
已有研究把贸易条件变动归结为许多复杂因素。本文从单一视角——技术进步研究贸易条件的变动,目的是更加深刻认识技术进步和贸易条件关系,以促进中国技术进步和贸易条件改善的良性互动。就技术进步对贸易条件的影响来说,前人研究主要从技术进步影响劳动生产率的角度去考察得出结论:一国技术进步会使得价格贸易条件恶化。
本文分别考察了技术进步对南北贸易垄断力量的影响、技术进步的不同方式、内生技术创新的效率以及技术进步导致的贸易品技术结构变化,丰富了技术进步研究的维度,从这些视角进行理论创新并实证得知技术进步会促进价格贸易条件改善。
在南北贸易模型的基础上,考虑技术进步影响一国商品的垄断力量,垄断力量进而会影响贸易条件变化,实证分析表明:北方国家,以美国制造业为例,垄断力量一直在加强,这加剧了南方国家价格贸易条件恶化。
根据资本—劳动比的指标,本文把技术进步划分为资本节约型和劳动节约型,在差异化产品的产业内贸易模型中,资本节约型技术进步使得本国价格贸易条件改善,劳动节约型相反,两种技术进步都会使得收入贸易条件改善。根据中美两国的比较,中国是劳动节约型技术进步,因此价格贸易条件恶化。
内生技术创新通过研发效率影响产品种类,从而影响价格贸易条件,如果研发效率低,那么价格贸易条件恶化。中国的研发投入和人力资本投资逐年增加,但效率较低,导致价格贸易条件不能改善。
从很多指数测算中国贸易品的技术结构都在升级,但价格贸易条件仍在下降,从技术进步和产品内分工的视角可以得到答案,因为中国的技术进步没有获得产品内分工的高端位置。
最后,本文根据从技术进步四个视角所得出的引起贸易条件变化的原因,提出相应的政策建议,以使得中国能获得更好的技术进步和贸易条件改善。
The change in terms of trade has been thought attributed to some complex factors,but this paper studied the change in terms of trade in one angle--technological progress so that we can know the relationship deeply betweenboth of them,and it is significant and useful to foster postive interaction between both of them. Former theory thought the relevance of them in angle of labor produtivity,its conclusion is one country's technological progress would lead to decline in NBTT.
The paper expanded the aspects of technological progress which inclued influence on the monopoly power of north-south trade ,the way of technological progress, endougenous technical innovation efficiency and technical structure of trade goods.The paper developed these theory from these aspects and prove the relevance between of them.
In the case of North-South trade model technological progress has the impact of one country's merchandise monopoly power, and monopoly power would affect the terms of trade .Empirical analysis shows that the North Country just as the United States ,its manufacturing industry, for example, has been strengthened monopoly power.Thus exacerbated the South NBTT deterioration.
In accordance with the capital-labor ratio index, the way of technological progress can be divided into capital-saving and labor-saving which would added in the intra-industry trade model with product differentiation.capital-saving technological progress would improve one coutry's NBTT, but labor-saving is opposite, both of them would make ITT improved. According to comparison of China and the United States, China is a country of labor-saving technological progress, so the NBTT deterioration.
Endogenous technological innovation affected NBTT through R&D efficiency.If R&D has low efficiency, it would deteriorated NBTT. China's R&D investment and human capital investment have increased year by year, but less efficient, they can not made NBTT improved.
China's technical structure of trade goods from the index calculations is upgrading, but NBTT is still declining .The intra- product theory can give the answer, because China's technological progress has not pused their products within high-end and high added value location of intra-product chain.
Finally, in accordance with the four aspects of technological advances ,the paper had put forward policy recommendations in corresponding in order to China make better technological progress and improve terms of trade.
本文分别考察了技术进步对南北贸易垄断力量的影响、技术进步的不同方式、内生技术创新的效率以及技术进步导致的贸易品技术结构变化,丰富了技术进步研究的维度,从这些视角进行理论创新并实证得知技术进步会促进价格贸易条件改善。
在南北贸易模型的基础上,考虑技术进步影响一国商品的垄断力量,垄断力量进而会影响贸易条件变化,实证分析表明:北方国家,以美国制造业为例,垄断力量一直在加强,这加剧了南方国家价格贸易条件恶化。
根据资本—劳动比的指标,本文把技术进步划分为资本节约型和劳动节约型,在差异化产品的产业内贸易模型中,资本节约型技术进步使得本国价格贸易条件改善,劳动节约型相反,两种技术进步都会使得收入贸易条件改善。根据中美两国的比较,中国是劳动节约型技术进步,因此价格贸易条件恶化。
内生技术创新通过研发效率影响产品种类,从而影响价格贸易条件,如果研发效率低,那么价格贸易条件恶化。中国的研发投入和人力资本投资逐年增加,但效率较低,导致价格贸易条件不能改善。
从很多指数测算中国贸易品的技术结构都在升级,但价格贸易条件仍在下降,从技术进步和产品内分工的视角可以得到答案,因为中国的技术进步没有获得产品内分工的高端位置。
最后,本文根据从技术进步四个视角所得出的引起贸易条件变化的原因,提出相应的政策建议,以使得中国能获得更好的技术进步和贸易条件改善。
The change in terms of trade has been thought attributed to some complex factors,but this paper studied the change in terms of trade in one angle--technological progress so that we can know the relationship deeply betweenboth of them,and it is significant and useful to foster postive interaction between both of them. Former theory thought the relevance of them in angle of labor produtivity,its conclusion is one country's technological progress would lead to decline in NBTT.
The paper expanded the aspects of technological progress which inclued influence on the monopoly power of north-south trade ,the way of technological progress, endougenous technical innovation efficiency and technical structure of trade goods.The paper developed these theory from these aspects and prove the relevance between of them.
In the case of North-South trade model technological progress has the impact of one country's merchandise monopoly power, and monopoly power would affect the terms of trade .Empirical analysis shows that the North Country just as the United States ,its manufacturing industry, for example, has been strengthened monopoly power.Thus exacerbated the South NBTT deterioration.
In accordance with the capital-labor ratio index, the way of technological progress can be divided into capital-saving and labor-saving which would added in the intra-industry trade model with product differentiation.capital-saving technological progress would improve one coutry's NBTT, but labor-saving is opposite, both of them would make ITT improved. According to comparison of China and the United States, China is a country of labor-saving technological progress, so the NBTT deterioration.
Endogenous technological innovation affected NBTT through R&D efficiency.If R&D has low efficiency, it would deteriorated NBTT. China's R&D investment and human capital investment have increased year by year, but less efficient, they can not made NBTT improved.
China's technical structure of trade goods from the index calculations is upgrading, but NBTT is still declining .The intra- product theory can give the answer, because China's technological progress has not pused their products within high-end and high added value location of intra-product chain.
Finally, in accordance with the four aspects of technological advances ,the paper had put forward policy recommendations in corresponding in order to China make better technological progress and improve terms of trade.
引文
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