科技、人口、土地互动机制及对策研究
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摘要
在人类社会的大系统中,经济系统是其中的子系统,而科技、人口、土地经济系统又是经济系统的子系统。科技、人口、土地互动机制不仅影响科技、人口、土地经济系统本身的运行、演化和变迁,同时还对整个经济系统乃至人类社会大系统的运行、演化和变迁产生广泛而深远的影响。
本文运用技术经济学、微观经济学、宏观经济学、发展经济学等相关理论,围绕着科技、人口、土地经济系统运行中科技、人口、土地之间的互动机制展开分析。首先,在对相关文献进行对比分析的基础上,运用一般均衡理论的方法,构建科技、人口、土地经济系统模型。其次,借助科技、人口、土地经济系统模型,对科技、人口、土地在该经济系统运行中的互动机制及其表现特征进行研究。再次,对科技、人口、土地在经济系统运行中的互动机制及其表现特征进行实证检验。最后,依据实证研究结论,本文提出基于科技、人口、土地互动机制的对策建议。
本文系统地提出了科技、人口、土地经济系统运行中的科技、人口、土地互动机制,并进行了实证检验和对策研究。因此,本论文研究的内容具有一定的理论意义和现实意义。
Sci-tec, population and land is the three elements in an economic system. A certain amount of people with a certain level of scientific and technical capacity created great wealth through the utilization of natural resources on land and built up a strong human civilization gradually. It is necessary to study the interaction mechanisms and countermeasures of sci-tec, population and land to guide practice.
The literatures show that the most studies on the interaction mechanisms and countermeasures of sci-tec, population and land used the reduction analysis method to study the interaction mechanism between every two of them without seeing them as a whole economic system. As for the research of economic system, they pay more attention to ecological economic system, environmental economic system, regional economic system and industrial economic system. There was no one who built a sci-tec, population and land economic system to focus on it.
This article studies the interaction mechanisms and countermeasures based on the sci-tec, population and land economic system. It also proposes the suggestions. This study mainly includes: (1) Studies on the construction of sci-tec, population and land economic system and its operation rules. (2) Studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land based on the sci-tec, population and land economic system. (3) Empirical studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land. (4) Studies on the strategies based on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land and its empirical studies.
I. Studies on the construction of sci-tec, population and land economic system and its operation rules.
At first, this article built a sci-tec, population and land economic system at a point between any two scientific and technological progresses. And then, we introduced the time variable which means the scientific and technological progress and studied the dynamic change of the economic system with the time passing.
The choice of the point should make the point so far beyond the last technological advance point which means the economic system had enough time to complete the capital accumulation and got the device limit. For that reason, the sci-tec, population and land economic system we made in this article has got the features as follows: 1. Scientific and technological progresses stagnates. 2. Capital level gets the device limit. That is to say the capital is adequate. 3. The land supply is adequate. The use of agricultural land available for development is far less than the total of all agricultural land in the economic system. 4. The land usage of economic system is mainly for agricultural production, while the agricultural land has a unified price of land. 5. As land and capital are sufficient the ratio of land and capital involved in the production is optimal which is a constant. 6. Optimal production factor ratio is the biggest input of land and capital production mixture which means the full range of products are produced in accordance of the optimal factor ratio with the current sci-tec level. 7. Private ownership, the professional division of labor and market exchange are existing, that is, the economic system is a system of exchange economy.
II. Studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land based on the sci-tec, population and land economic system.
1. We propose four theoretical concept of population capacity as follows: technological population capacity, economic population capacity, potential population capacity and optimal population capacity. And the sci-tec and land mechanisms in the four theorectical population capacity are explained in mathematical formulas. They are the basis for further studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land.
2. There are three stages of development for the sci-tec, population and land economic system which are low production stage, moderate production stage and high production stage. This article elaborates in detail the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land in the three stages and summarizes the features of every single stage. Further more, we put forward the explanation of the reason of the unbalance for the agricultural sci-tec and non-agricultural sci-tec.
3. In the low production stage and moderate production stage land premium rate has the negative correlation with the equilibrium scale of production. The difference of land premium rate has the positive correlation with the difference of equilibrium commodity price ratio and labor value ratio.
4. The relative stability of land premium rate is the assumption for some studies. We analyse its existence for the assumption’s establishment and study the land premium rate’s dynamic changing trend.
III. Empirical studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land.
Based on the theoretical study’s conclusion, we make the empirical studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land and their features. Further more we estimate the three stages of the sci-tec, population and land economic system. The details of empirical studies are as follows: 1. Based on the actual population size and potential population capacity from the early agricultural civilization to modern civilization, we estimate the time interval for the low production stage and moderate production stage of sci-tec, population and land economic system. 2. Through visual analysis and unit root test for the dynamic changing trend of population growth we estimate the time interval for the low production stage, moderate production stage and high productiong stage of sci-tec, population and land economic system. And we also examine the stationary of the dynamic changing trend of population growth. Based on the ARIMA model we establish the model of the index of population reduction and forecast the total population and population growth of China and the whole world. The model shows that the index of population reduction of China and the whole world are very close. 3. Based on the regression analysis between the population growth and actual population scale from the early agricultural civilization to 1980 we estimate accurately the time interval for the low production stage and moderate production stage of sci-tec, population and land economic system. 4. By testing the changing trend of working hours from the early agricultural civilization to AD500 we strengthen the estimation of time interval for the low production stage. 5. Based on the empirical test on the scale of land use we get the idea that in moderate production stage the scale of agricultural land use continue growing and in high production stage the scale of agricultural land use keep stable. 6. The empirical test of the index of deflation shows that in high production stage there is a negative correlation between the index of deflation and GDP per capita.
IV. Studies on the strategies based on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land and its empirical studies.
1. Based on the judgement that the sci-tec, population and land economic system of current human society is in high production stage we estimate the four theoretical population capacity of our nation and the world and propose three countermeasures:①Achieving economic population capacity for the goal of total economy maximization.②Achieving technological population capacity for the goal of per capita social welfare maximization.③Achieving optimal population capacity for the goal of sci-tec level maximization. Considering the three countermeasures this article proposes some sci-tec and administration strategies. The countermeasures for the economic population capacity and the optimal population capacity should control population growth, focus on the sci-tec to increase food production for the first priority and execute the supporting administration strategies. The countermeasures for the technological population capacity should control population growth, focus on the sci-tec to improve efficiency of fossil fuels and timber for the first priority and execute the supporting administration strategies.
2. Considering the quantitative relationship between technological population capacity, economic population capacity, potential population capacity and optimal population capacity of our nation and scarcity of resources this article recommends the priority of sci-tec development and administration strategies as follows:①Sci-tec to saving fossil fuel in the framework of the existing industrial technology including energy-efficient lighting, energy-saving appliances, energy-saving constructions, alteration transportation system, new materials, etc.②Alternative energy technologies including wind power, hybrid vehicles, solar power and heating, geothermal, waste plants usage, a variety of hydropower, etc.③Technologies to ease shortage of wood resources including raising the recycling rate for paper, reducing paper usage, reducing firewood usage, afforestation, etc.④Technologies to increase food production and using efficiency including moving to the low-end of food chain, improving protein conversion efficiency, developing new varieties and farming techniques, improving the efficiency of irrigation water, etc.
3. This article proposes the market, administration and policies supporting the sci-tec development including:①Stop subsidizing the price of scarce resources including fossil fuels, water, electricity and so on.②Collect tax for inefficient use of resources including gasoline tax, landfill tax, carbon taxes and so on.③Establish the industry standards from the highest energy efficiency and resources recycling rate.④Support the priority sectors through the transfer of subsidies.⑤Improve the system of land property rights to give the protection of property rights to farmers and stimulate investment to improve land productivity.⑥To balance the stock of agricultural land and industrial development by using the optimal land requisition path for the government.
4. Based on the currency circulation law in high production stage of the sci-tec, population and land economic system we propose the currency administration strategy and the formula of money stock growth rate target.
In summary, this research idea is to first select a point and study the running of the sci-tec, population and land economic system and its interaction mechanisms at this point. Then we introduce the time variable. With the time passing and improving of the sci-tec level we study the evolution of the economic system and the interaction mechanisms in this process. That is static first and dynamic then. After that we carry on the empirical tests. At last we propose the strategies based on the conlusion of theoretical studies and empirical tests.
本文运用技术经济学、微观经济学、宏观经济学、发展经济学等相关理论,围绕着科技、人口、土地经济系统运行中科技、人口、土地之间的互动机制展开分析。首先,在对相关文献进行对比分析的基础上,运用一般均衡理论的方法,构建科技、人口、土地经济系统模型。其次,借助科技、人口、土地经济系统模型,对科技、人口、土地在该经济系统运行中的互动机制及其表现特征进行研究。再次,对科技、人口、土地在经济系统运行中的互动机制及其表现特征进行实证检验。最后,依据实证研究结论,本文提出基于科技、人口、土地互动机制的对策建议。
本文系统地提出了科技、人口、土地经济系统运行中的科技、人口、土地互动机制,并进行了实证检验和对策研究。因此,本论文研究的内容具有一定的理论意义和现实意义。
Sci-tec, population and land is the three elements in an economic system. A certain amount of people with a certain level of scientific and technical capacity created great wealth through the utilization of natural resources on land and built up a strong human civilization gradually. It is necessary to study the interaction mechanisms and countermeasures of sci-tec, population and land to guide practice.
The literatures show that the most studies on the interaction mechanisms and countermeasures of sci-tec, population and land used the reduction analysis method to study the interaction mechanism between every two of them without seeing them as a whole economic system. As for the research of economic system, they pay more attention to ecological economic system, environmental economic system, regional economic system and industrial economic system. There was no one who built a sci-tec, population and land economic system to focus on it.
This article studies the interaction mechanisms and countermeasures based on the sci-tec, population and land economic system. It also proposes the suggestions. This study mainly includes: (1) Studies on the construction of sci-tec, population and land economic system and its operation rules. (2) Studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land based on the sci-tec, population and land economic system. (3) Empirical studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land. (4) Studies on the strategies based on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land and its empirical studies.
I. Studies on the construction of sci-tec, population and land economic system and its operation rules.
At first, this article built a sci-tec, population and land economic system at a point between any two scientific and technological progresses. And then, we introduced the time variable which means the scientific and technological progress and studied the dynamic change of the economic system with the time passing.
The choice of the point should make the point so far beyond the last technological advance point which means the economic system had enough time to complete the capital accumulation and got the device limit. For that reason, the sci-tec, population and land economic system we made in this article has got the features as follows: 1. Scientific and technological progresses stagnates. 2. Capital level gets the device limit. That is to say the capital is adequate. 3. The land supply is adequate. The use of agricultural land available for development is far less than the total of all agricultural land in the economic system. 4. The land usage of economic system is mainly for agricultural production, while the agricultural land has a unified price of land. 5. As land and capital are sufficient the ratio of land and capital involved in the production is optimal which is a constant. 6. Optimal production factor ratio is the biggest input of land and capital production mixture which means the full range of products are produced in accordance of the optimal factor ratio with the current sci-tec level. 7. Private ownership, the professional division of labor and market exchange are existing, that is, the economic system is a system of exchange economy.
II. Studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land based on the sci-tec, population and land economic system.
1. We propose four theoretical concept of population capacity as follows: technological population capacity, economic population capacity, potential population capacity and optimal population capacity. And the sci-tec and land mechanisms in the four theorectical population capacity are explained in mathematical formulas. They are the basis for further studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land.
2. There are three stages of development for the sci-tec, population and land economic system which are low production stage, moderate production stage and high production stage. This article elaborates in detail the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land in the three stages and summarizes the features of every single stage. Further more, we put forward the explanation of the reason of the unbalance for the agricultural sci-tec and non-agricultural sci-tec.
3. In the low production stage and moderate production stage land premium rate has the negative correlation with the equilibrium scale of production. The difference of land premium rate has the positive correlation with the difference of equilibrium commodity price ratio and labor value ratio.
4. The relative stability of land premium rate is the assumption for some studies. We analyse its existence for the assumption’s establishment and study the land premium rate’s dynamic changing trend.
III. Empirical studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land.
Based on the theoretical study’s conclusion, we make the empirical studies on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land and their features. Further more we estimate the three stages of the sci-tec, population and land economic system. The details of empirical studies are as follows: 1. Based on the actual population size and potential population capacity from the early agricultural civilization to modern civilization, we estimate the time interval for the low production stage and moderate production stage of sci-tec, population and land economic system. 2. Through visual analysis and unit root test for the dynamic changing trend of population growth we estimate the time interval for the low production stage, moderate production stage and high productiong stage of sci-tec, population and land economic system. And we also examine the stationary of the dynamic changing trend of population growth. Based on the ARIMA model we establish the model of the index of population reduction and forecast the total population and population growth of China and the whole world. The model shows that the index of population reduction of China and the whole world are very close. 3. Based on the regression analysis between the population growth and actual population scale from the early agricultural civilization to 1980 we estimate accurately the time interval for the low production stage and moderate production stage of sci-tec, population and land economic system. 4. By testing the changing trend of working hours from the early agricultural civilization to AD500 we strengthen the estimation of time interval for the low production stage. 5. Based on the empirical test on the scale of land use we get the idea that in moderate production stage the scale of agricultural land use continue growing and in high production stage the scale of agricultural land use keep stable. 6. The empirical test of the index of deflation shows that in high production stage there is a negative correlation between the index of deflation and GDP per capita.
IV. Studies on the strategies based on the interaction mechanisms of sci-tec, population and land and its empirical studies.
1. Based on the judgement that the sci-tec, population and land economic system of current human society is in high production stage we estimate the four theoretical population capacity of our nation and the world and propose three countermeasures:①Achieving economic population capacity for the goal of total economy maximization.②Achieving technological population capacity for the goal of per capita social welfare maximization.③Achieving optimal population capacity for the goal of sci-tec level maximization. Considering the three countermeasures this article proposes some sci-tec and administration strategies. The countermeasures for the economic population capacity and the optimal population capacity should control population growth, focus on the sci-tec to increase food production for the first priority and execute the supporting administration strategies. The countermeasures for the technological population capacity should control population growth, focus on the sci-tec to improve efficiency of fossil fuels and timber for the first priority and execute the supporting administration strategies.
2. Considering the quantitative relationship between technological population capacity, economic population capacity, potential population capacity and optimal population capacity of our nation and scarcity of resources this article recommends the priority of sci-tec development and administration strategies as follows:①Sci-tec to saving fossil fuel in the framework of the existing industrial technology including energy-efficient lighting, energy-saving appliances, energy-saving constructions, alteration transportation system, new materials, etc.②Alternative energy technologies including wind power, hybrid vehicles, solar power and heating, geothermal, waste plants usage, a variety of hydropower, etc.③Technologies to ease shortage of wood resources including raising the recycling rate for paper, reducing paper usage, reducing firewood usage, afforestation, etc.④Technologies to increase food production and using efficiency including moving to the low-end of food chain, improving protein conversion efficiency, developing new varieties and farming techniques, improving the efficiency of irrigation water, etc.
3. This article proposes the market, administration and policies supporting the sci-tec development including:①Stop subsidizing the price of scarce resources including fossil fuels, water, electricity and so on.②Collect tax for inefficient use of resources including gasoline tax, landfill tax, carbon taxes and so on.③Establish the industry standards from the highest energy efficiency and resources recycling rate.④Support the priority sectors through the transfer of subsidies.⑤Improve the system of land property rights to give the protection of property rights to farmers and stimulate investment to improve land productivity.⑥To balance the stock of agricultural land and industrial development by using the optimal land requisition path for the government.
4. Based on the currency circulation law in high production stage of the sci-tec, population and land economic system we propose the currency administration strategy and the formula of money stock growth rate target.
In summary, this research idea is to first select a point and study the running of the sci-tec, population and land economic system and its interaction mechanisms at this point. Then we introduce the time variable. With the time passing and improving of the sci-tec level we study the evolution of the economic system and the interaction mechanisms in this process. That is static first and dynamic then. After that we carry on the empirical tests. At last we propose the strategies based on the conlusion of theoretical studies and empirical tests.
引文
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