智能决策支持系统（IDSS）在梯级水电站中的应用研究
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摘要
水资源系统是一个复杂的非结构化大系统。水能是水资源的一项重要经济属性。近几十年来，我国对水电能源的开发利用十分重视。许多水利工作者运用系统工程理论研究开发利用水力资源，并初步形成了一套系统完整的研究体系和理论方法。但是河流的外发规划是涉及学科门类广泛、牵涉部门众多且利益各异的复杂大系统管理和决策问题，随着现代数学理论和计算技术的发展，计算机硬件的普及，人们越来越清醒地认识到运用新的计算技术解决水资源利用的重要作用。人工智能技术在本世纪发展势必影响到人们生活的各个领域。决策支持系统(DSS)是人工智能应用发展的重要分支之一。本文对智能决策支持系统在梯级水电站中的应用研究包括如下几个方面：
1、智能决策支持系统在梯级水电站中应用的理论分析
(1)智能决策支持系统的理论分析
智能决策支持系统包括人工智能技术、系统工程、计算机技术、信息技术等学科知以的应用，是一种交互式辅助决策者进行决策的软件。
(2)水电站优化调度的理论分析
在梯级开发中应用决策支持系统进行合理的梯级规划，包括梯级的布胃、水电站参数的最优选择、梯级开发顺序决策和水库运行的优化调度等问题。在对不确定性问题上，决策支持系统给决策者只是提供辅助决策，而不是替代决策者。对多目标多模型进行系统分解，采用层次结构的思想体系。
2、石头河中上游流域梯级开发的智能决策支持系统研究
在上述内容与理论框架研究的基础上，以石头河中上游流域梯级开发为实例，探讨了决策支持系统在梯级开发中的具体实践。是本文观点和结论在具体规划中的运用。石头河中上游开发系统包括基本信息、数据库、梯级开发、模型设计、辅助决策、系统管理六大模块。每一模块具有相对独立性和基本功能特性，采用界面友好的人机对话交互方式，可操作性强。
3、智能决策支持系统在梯级水电站中的运用
在分析我国水电站库群规划和调度现状的基础上，探讨了河流开发规划与科学调度管理的基本理论框架。在结合实例的基础上，有力的论证了智能决策支持系统在梯级水电站中的应用前景，并结合现状对水电站库群规划与调度工作进行了有益的探索，并根据我国的实际情况提出了相关建议。
The system of water resource is a complicated unstructured system. Hydropower is an important economic attribute of water resource. In recent decades, great stress has been laid on hydroelectric exploitation in our country. Many water workers make researches on how to exploit waterpower by using systems engineering theory, and have formed an intact research system and theoretical method. But the planning of river exploitation is a complicated grand system management and decision problem that involves many sciences and sectors whose benefits are all different. With the rapid development of modern math theory and calculation technology, and the popularization of computer, people have gradually understood its important effects on solving the utilization problem of water resource by using new calculation technology. The development of artificial intelligent technology will surely affect people's life in all aspects in this century. Decision support system is one of important branches of artificial intelligent te
chnology. Intelligent decision support system applied in the cascade hydropower station studied in this thesis includes three following aspects.
1. Theoretical analysis of intelligent decision support system applied in the cascade hydropower
(1) Theoretical analysis of intelligent decision support system
Intelligent decision support system includes many sciences, such as artificial intelligent technology, operational research, computer sciences, information technologv etc. and it is a kind of decision software that assists decision maker by man-machine interaction.
(2) Theoretical analysis of optimal theory for cascade hydropower station Applying decision support system to carry out rational river planning in stepped
exploitation includes cascade station arrangement, selecting optimal parameters of Indropower station, decision of stepped exploitation order and optimal dispatching for reservoir etc. For uncertain problems, decision support system only supplies an auxiliary decision to the decision maker, not taking the place of decision maker. For multi-purpose and multi-model problems, it adopts analytic hierarchy process to decompose complicated svstem.
2. Intelligent decision support system for the stepped exploitation in the medium- and upper-reaches of Shitou River Valley
Bases on the basic theoretical frame and content as stated above, practice of intelligent decision support system in the stepped exploitation is explored by citing and analyzing a concrete instance of the stepped exploitation in the medium- and upper-reaches of Shitou River valley, reflecting the feasible application of the view and theory put forward in this thesis in the practical planning. Exploitation system in the medium- and upper-reaches of Shitou River valley includes basic information, database, stepped exploitation, model design, subsidiary decision and system management. Each module has relative independence and basic function property. It is easy to operate and adopts beautiful interlace by way of man-machine interaction. 3. Intelligent decision support system application in the cascade hydropower station
Basic theoretical frame of river exploitation planning and optimal dispatching management is probed into by analyzing the current situation of planning and dispatching for hydropower station reservoirs. The prospect of intelligent decision support system applied in the hydropower station is proved by the concrete instance, effective probe into the planning and dispatching for hydropower station reservoirs is made and practical proposal is also proposed in view of the existing situation of our country.
1、智能决策支持系统在梯级水电站中应用的理论分析
(1)智能决策支持系统的理论分析
智能决策支持系统包括人工智能技术、系统工程、计算机技术、信息技术等学科知以的应用，是一种交互式辅助决策者进行决策的软件。
(2)水电站优化调度的理论分析
在梯级开发中应用决策支持系统进行合理的梯级规划，包括梯级的布胃、水电站参数的最优选择、梯级开发顺序决策和水库运行的优化调度等问题。在对不确定性问题上，决策支持系统给决策者只是提供辅助决策，而不是替代决策者。对多目标多模型进行系统分解，采用层次结构的思想体系。
2、石头河中上游流域梯级开发的智能决策支持系统研究
在上述内容与理论框架研究的基础上，以石头河中上游流域梯级开发为实例，探讨了决策支持系统在梯级开发中的具体实践。是本文观点和结论在具体规划中的运用。石头河中上游开发系统包括基本信息、数据库、梯级开发、模型设计、辅助决策、系统管理六大模块。每一模块具有相对独立性和基本功能特性，采用界面友好的人机对话交互方式，可操作性强。
3、智能决策支持系统在梯级水电站中的运用
在分析我国水电站库群规划和调度现状的基础上，探讨了河流开发规划与科学调度管理的基本理论框架。在结合实例的基础上，有力的论证了智能决策支持系统在梯级水电站中的应用前景，并结合现状对水电站库群规划与调度工作进行了有益的探索，并根据我国的实际情况提出了相关建议。
The system of water resource is a complicated unstructured system. Hydropower is an important economic attribute of water resource. In recent decades, great stress has been laid on hydroelectric exploitation in our country. Many water workers make researches on how to exploit waterpower by using systems engineering theory, and have formed an intact research system and theoretical method. But the planning of river exploitation is a complicated grand system management and decision problem that involves many sciences and sectors whose benefits are all different. With the rapid development of modern math theory and calculation technology, and the popularization of computer, people have gradually understood its important effects on solving the utilization problem of water resource by using new calculation technology. The development of artificial intelligent technology will surely affect people's life in all aspects in this century. Decision support system is one of important branches of artificial intelligent te
chnology. Intelligent decision support system applied in the cascade hydropower station studied in this thesis includes three following aspects.
1. Theoretical analysis of intelligent decision support system applied in the cascade hydropower
(1) Theoretical analysis of intelligent decision support system
Intelligent decision support system includes many sciences, such as artificial intelligent technology, operational research, computer sciences, information technologv etc. and it is a kind of decision software that assists decision maker by man-machine interaction.
(2) Theoretical analysis of optimal theory for cascade hydropower station Applying decision support system to carry out rational river planning in stepped
exploitation includes cascade station arrangement, selecting optimal parameters of Indropower station, decision of stepped exploitation order and optimal dispatching for reservoir etc. For uncertain problems, decision support system only supplies an auxiliary decision to the decision maker, not taking the place of decision maker. For multi-purpose and multi-model problems, it adopts analytic hierarchy process to decompose complicated svstem.
2. Intelligent decision support system for the stepped exploitation in the medium- and upper-reaches of Shitou River Valley
Bases on the basic theoretical frame and content as stated above, practice of intelligent decision support system in the stepped exploitation is explored by citing and analyzing a concrete instance of the stepped exploitation in the medium- and upper-reaches of Shitou River valley, reflecting the feasible application of the view and theory put forward in this thesis in the practical planning. Exploitation system in the medium- and upper-reaches of Shitou River valley includes basic information, database, stepped exploitation, model design, subsidiary decision and system management. Each module has relative independence and basic function property. It is easy to operate and adopts beautiful interlace by way of man-machine interaction. 3. Intelligent decision support system application in the cascade hydropower station
Basic theoretical frame of river exploitation planning and optimal dispatching management is probed into by analyzing the current situation of planning and dispatching for hydropower station reservoirs. The prospect of intelligent decision support system applied in the hydropower station is proved by the concrete instance, effective probe into the planning and dispatching for hydropower station reservoirs is made and practical proposal is also proposed in view of the existing situation of our country.
引文
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