基本养老保险统筹层次研究
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摘要
养老保险是社会保险的重要组成部分,也是整个社会保障体系的核心之一。在中国经济体制转轨过程中,养老保险制度改革走过了20多年的发展历程,并已在全国范围内建立了城镇养老保险体系。虽然取得了一些成绩,但是仍然存在值得深入探索与研究的问题,对这些问题进行理论和实证研究,找到问题产生的根源与解决方案,无疑对继续深化养老保险制度改革具有十分重要的意义。
目前中国的养老保险还未实现全国统筹,养老保险的统筹层次比较低,这直接关系到基金的风险程度,并与人力资源合理流动、扩大养老保险覆盖面、建立多层次养老保险体系等问题均有关联。按照大数法则,统筹层次越高风险越小、保障程度越高,我国养老保险制度建立之初是以县市级统筹为主的,逐步提高统筹层次,最终实现全国统筹,以适应养老保险社会化的本质要求,是我国养老保险制度的发展方向。
文章主要进行了以下几个方面的研究
1.提高养老保险统筹层次的理论依据
大数法则理论、社会公平理论和收入再分配理论为基本养老保险统筹层次的提高提供了理论基础。统筹层次较低限制了大范围筹集、使用养老保险基金的可能性,基金只能在一个小范围内自我周转,调剂性大大降低。提高养老保险的统筹层次能够使参保人员数量极大化,充分发挥养老保险基金统筹调剂的功能,使财富在富人和穷人之间、年轻人和老年人之间、富裕地区和贫困地区之间合理地转移,从而保障国民基本生活需求,实现社会公平目标。
2.养老保险统筹层次的发展趋势研究
统筹层次的确定,是同一个国家的经济发展水平、经济发展特点紧密相联的,在目前地区间经济差距较大的情况下,从县市级统筹无论是先走向省级统筹还是直接走向全国统筹,都有可能引发道德风险,但省级统筹下遇到的道德风险要小于全国统筹。然而,实现省级统筹只是养老保险的中级目标,世界上建立现代社会保障制度的国家基本上都是全国统筹,全国统筹是最高层次的社会统筹,从管理成本角度看,可以做到成本最低,条件具备时在实行省级统筹的基础上逐步过渡到全国统筹是未来养老保险发展的必然趋势。
3.地区间横向的物价指数测算
在基础养老金既定给付目标下,参照城镇家庭人均消费性支出,考虑到退休职工的实际情况,将居民消费支出分为五大类,分别为食品、衣着、医疗保健、交通和通信、杂项商品和服务,每个大类下面又分若干小类。依据这五大类消费支出在人们日常生活中的重要程度将基本生活从低到高分成三个不同层次,进而对不同层次下包括的消费支出物价水平进行了地区间的横向比较分析,从而为分析养老金给付的合理性提供了工具。
4.养老保险统筹层次提高的影响因素分析
提高养老保险统筹层次是养老保险制度建立与完善的必然趋势,虽然国家一直强调要提高养老保险的统筹层次,但是基本养老保险统筹层次的改革并不如人们想象的那么容易和顺利,这主要是由于实行养老保险的省级统筹或全国统筹并不是无条件的,一蹴而就的,需要有一定的基础条件,文章对提高统筹层次的有利条件和阻碍因素进行了深入的分析。
5.统筹层次提高的方案设计
论文中为统筹层次的提高进行了具体的方案设计。统筹层次的提高会带来地区之间的收入再分配,出现财富的转移,在目前地方统筹,财政分割的情况下,必然会引起资金转出地区的不满,成为统筹层次提高的障碍,影响统筹层次提高的进程。然而,受资源、环境和政策影响的不同,各地区出现经济发展水平的差异和由此而引起的工资差距是不可避免的,要消除这种差异是不可能的,也是不现实的。在地区之间,职工之间收入差距较大的情况下,适当降低地区间收入再分配的程度必然有利于统筹层次的提高。在对引起地区间收入转移的因素进行深入分析的基础之上,为推进养老保险统筹层次提高的顺利实施,设计了体现不同收入再分配功能的五种方案,并提出在各地经济发展水平有较大差距的情况下,可以随着时间的推进逐步采取收入再分配功能由“低”到“高”的方案,通过一种渐进的方式逐步实现完整意义上的省级统筹,并最终实现全国统筹。
6.统筹层次提高后养老金的收支平衡测算及财政支撑能力分析
养老保险基金支付能力的强弱对一个国家或地区的社会稳定乃至政府决策都会产生相当重要的影响。提高养老保险统筹层次的过程中,为了对各种方案下社会统筹养老金的收支状况有所了解,文章对基本养老保险统筹层次提高后养老金的收支平衡状况进行了预测,并分析了财政对养老保险的支撑能力。
The pension insurance, as an essential component of the social insurance, is also one of the core componants in total social security system. In the course of China's economic transition, the pension insurance system has undertaken a twenty-year reform, which leads to the nationwide establishment of the urban pension insurance system. Despite some achievements, there are still a lot of problems require deep study and further research. With the theoretical and practical study on these problems, the causes and solutions will be found. That, undoubtedly, will be of great practical significance for the further reforms in the pension system .
At present, China's pension insurance is not overall planed by central government. The pooling level of pension fund is very low which is directly related to the degree of risk and even all existing problems in the pension insurance system, such as the rational flow of human resource, enlarging the pension insurance coverage and building a multi-layer pension insurance system. Based on the law of large numbers, the higher the level of the pooling is, the stronger ability the fund has to resist risks. Pension insurance in our country is mainly based on county or city' level since it was founded. Finally, pension insurance at the national level will be achieved to meet the essential requirement of the socialization of pension insurance. It is also the developing direction of the pension insurance system in our country.
This paper mainly includes the following research aspects:
1. The theoretical basis about raising the pooling level of pension insurance The law of large numbers theory, theory of social equity and income redistribution theory provide a theoretical foundation for raising the pooling level of basic pension insurance. The low-level social pooling limites the the possibility of raising and using funds on a large scale. Funds using in a small scale reduces the function of pention security. Raising the pooling level of basic pension insurance will enlarge the number of insurant and give full play to transferring the wealth between rich and poor, young and old, prosperous areas and backward areas. Thus will meet people's basic life demand and achieve the goal of social equity.
2. Research of the development trend of pooling level
The pooling level of pension is closely linked to the economic development level and features of a country. At present, with the big economic difference between areas, whether the pooling at the county level moves to provincial level or national leval will cause moral risk. But the moral risk will be smaller at the provincial level than at the national level. However, the provincial pooling level is only the intermediate goal of pension insurance. In the worldwide, the countries established social security system are all the national pooling level .National pooling level is the highest level of social insurance . from the point of management cost, pention at the national level can run with lowest cost. it is the inevitable trend from provincial-level to national-level for pension insurance in the future.
3. Regional horizontal Price Index measure
Under the goal of given benefit and in the light of the annual per capita living expenses of urban residents, consumer spending will be divided into five categories, namely food, clothing, medical care, transport and communications, miscellaneous goods and services, each category will be subdivided into several small categories. According to the degree of importance of these five consumption expenditures in people's daily life, we divid basic life into three different levels from low level to high level to compare and analyze the price level of consumption expenditures in different regions. Thus will provid the tool for analysis on the rationality of the pension benefits.
4. Analysis on the factors affecting the pooling level of pention
Raising the level of pension insurance is an inevitable trend of establishing and improving the pension insurance system. Athough the needs of improving the pooling level of pension insurance are always strengthened, the reform is not as easy as people think. This is mainly because the raising pension insurance at provincial or national level is not unconditional and it needs certain basic conditions. Therefore, the paper analyses its favorable conditions and barriers.
5. Design on the improving of pooling level
The paper gives a specific program design on the improving of pooling level. Raising pooling levels will bring about the income redistribution from rich regions to the poor regions, it will inevitably cause the dissatisfaction of the region that pay out funds and they may become an obstacle during the process of improving the pooling level under the financial division system today. However, it is inevitable to cause different economic development level and different wage gap caused by the resource, environmental and policy among regions and it is also impossible and unrealistic to eliminate the difference.
Under the circumstances that large income gap remains among workers and regions. It may be good for raising pooling level by reducing the income redistribution properly.
In order to raise the pooling level smoothly, several program designs with different functions for income redistribution among regions are given after analyzing factors that will cause inter-regional income transfer. The paper also gives a design with the function of income redistribution from "low" to "high" as time goes on. It is a gradual way to achieve a complete sense of provincial pooling step by step and ultimately to achieve national pooling.
6. Calculations on the balance between income and expenditure as well as analysis on financial support after raising pooling level.
The ability of payment may have pretty important effect on a country or an area's economic growth, social stability, and even the making of the government's policy . In order to know the situation of income and expenses under all kinds of programs, the paper carries out a forecast about the pension balance between income and expenditure after raising the pooling level, and also analyzes the capacity of finance to support pension insurance.
目前中国的养老保险还未实现全国统筹,养老保险的统筹层次比较低,这直接关系到基金的风险程度,并与人力资源合理流动、扩大养老保险覆盖面、建立多层次养老保险体系等问题均有关联。按照大数法则,统筹层次越高风险越小、保障程度越高,我国养老保险制度建立之初是以县市级统筹为主的,逐步提高统筹层次,最终实现全国统筹,以适应养老保险社会化的本质要求,是我国养老保险制度的发展方向。
文章主要进行了以下几个方面的研究
1.提高养老保险统筹层次的理论依据
大数法则理论、社会公平理论和收入再分配理论为基本养老保险统筹层次的提高提供了理论基础。统筹层次较低限制了大范围筹集、使用养老保险基金的可能性,基金只能在一个小范围内自我周转,调剂性大大降低。提高养老保险的统筹层次能够使参保人员数量极大化,充分发挥养老保险基金统筹调剂的功能,使财富在富人和穷人之间、年轻人和老年人之间、富裕地区和贫困地区之间合理地转移,从而保障国民基本生活需求,实现社会公平目标。
2.养老保险统筹层次的发展趋势研究
统筹层次的确定,是同一个国家的经济发展水平、经济发展特点紧密相联的,在目前地区间经济差距较大的情况下,从县市级统筹无论是先走向省级统筹还是直接走向全国统筹,都有可能引发道德风险,但省级统筹下遇到的道德风险要小于全国统筹。然而,实现省级统筹只是养老保险的中级目标,世界上建立现代社会保障制度的国家基本上都是全国统筹,全国统筹是最高层次的社会统筹,从管理成本角度看,可以做到成本最低,条件具备时在实行省级统筹的基础上逐步过渡到全国统筹是未来养老保险发展的必然趋势。
3.地区间横向的物价指数测算
在基础养老金既定给付目标下,参照城镇家庭人均消费性支出,考虑到退休职工的实际情况,将居民消费支出分为五大类,分别为食品、衣着、医疗保健、交通和通信、杂项商品和服务,每个大类下面又分若干小类。依据这五大类消费支出在人们日常生活中的重要程度将基本生活从低到高分成三个不同层次,进而对不同层次下包括的消费支出物价水平进行了地区间的横向比较分析,从而为分析养老金给付的合理性提供了工具。
4.养老保险统筹层次提高的影响因素分析
提高养老保险统筹层次是养老保险制度建立与完善的必然趋势,虽然国家一直强调要提高养老保险的统筹层次,但是基本养老保险统筹层次的改革并不如人们想象的那么容易和顺利,这主要是由于实行养老保险的省级统筹或全国统筹并不是无条件的,一蹴而就的,需要有一定的基础条件,文章对提高统筹层次的有利条件和阻碍因素进行了深入的分析。
5.统筹层次提高的方案设计
论文中为统筹层次的提高进行了具体的方案设计。统筹层次的提高会带来地区之间的收入再分配,出现财富的转移,在目前地方统筹,财政分割的情况下,必然会引起资金转出地区的不满,成为统筹层次提高的障碍,影响统筹层次提高的进程。然而,受资源、环境和政策影响的不同,各地区出现经济发展水平的差异和由此而引起的工资差距是不可避免的,要消除这种差异是不可能的,也是不现实的。在地区之间,职工之间收入差距较大的情况下,适当降低地区间收入再分配的程度必然有利于统筹层次的提高。在对引起地区间收入转移的因素进行深入分析的基础之上,为推进养老保险统筹层次提高的顺利实施,设计了体现不同收入再分配功能的五种方案,并提出在各地经济发展水平有较大差距的情况下,可以随着时间的推进逐步采取收入再分配功能由“低”到“高”的方案,通过一种渐进的方式逐步实现完整意义上的省级统筹,并最终实现全国统筹。
6.统筹层次提高后养老金的收支平衡测算及财政支撑能力分析
养老保险基金支付能力的强弱对一个国家或地区的社会稳定乃至政府决策都会产生相当重要的影响。提高养老保险统筹层次的过程中,为了对各种方案下社会统筹养老金的收支状况有所了解,文章对基本养老保险统筹层次提高后养老金的收支平衡状况进行了预测,并分析了财政对养老保险的支撑能力。
The pension insurance, as an essential component of the social insurance, is also one of the core componants in total social security system. In the course of China's economic transition, the pension insurance system has undertaken a twenty-year reform, which leads to the nationwide establishment of the urban pension insurance system. Despite some achievements, there are still a lot of problems require deep study and further research. With the theoretical and practical study on these problems, the causes and solutions will be found. That, undoubtedly, will be of great practical significance for the further reforms in the pension system .
At present, China's pension insurance is not overall planed by central government. The pooling level of pension fund is very low which is directly related to the degree of risk and even all existing problems in the pension insurance system, such as the rational flow of human resource, enlarging the pension insurance coverage and building a multi-layer pension insurance system. Based on the law of large numbers, the higher the level of the pooling is, the stronger ability the fund has to resist risks. Pension insurance in our country is mainly based on county or city' level since it was founded. Finally, pension insurance at the national level will be achieved to meet the essential requirement of the socialization of pension insurance. It is also the developing direction of the pension insurance system in our country.
This paper mainly includes the following research aspects:
1. The theoretical basis about raising the pooling level of pension insurance The law of large numbers theory, theory of social equity and income redistribution theory provide a theoretical foundation for raising the pooling level of basic pension insurance. The low-level social pooling limites the the possibility of raising and using funds on a large scale. Funds using in a small scale reduces the function of pention security. Raising the pooling level of basic pension insurance will enlarge the number of insurant and give full play to transferring the wealth between rich and poor, young and old, prosperous areas and backward areas. Thus will meet people's basic life demand and achieve the goal of social equity.
2. Research of the development trend of pooling level
The pooling level of pension is closely linked to the economic development level and features of a country. At present, with the big economic difference between areas, whether the pooling at the county level moves to provincial level or national leval will cause moral risk. But the moral risk will be smaller at the provincial level than at the national level. However, the provincial pooling level is only the intermediate goal of pension insurance. In the worldwide, the countries established social security system are all the national pooling level .National pooling level is the highest level of social insurance . from the point of management cost, pention at the national level can run with lowest cost. it is the inevitable trend from provincial-level to national-level for pension insurance in the future.
3. Regional horizontal Price Index measure
Under the goal of given benefit and in the light of the annual per capita living expenses of urban residents, consumer spending will be divided into five categories, namely food, clothing, medical care, transport and communications, miscellaneous goods and services, each category will be subdivided into several small categories. According to the degree of importance of these five consumption expenditures in people's daily life, we divid basic life into three different levels from low level to high level to compare and analyze the price level of consumption expenditures in different regions. Thus will provid the tool for analysis on the rationality of the pension benefits.
4. Analysis on the factors affecting the pooling level of pention
Raising the level of pension insurance is an inevitable trend of establishing and improving the pension insurance system. Athough the needs of improving the pooling level of pension insurance are always strengthened, the reform is not as easy as people think. This is mainly because the raising pension insurance at provincial or national level is not unconditional and it needs certain basic conditions. Therefore, the paper analyses its favorable conditions and barriers.
5. Design on the improving of pooling level
The paper gives a specific program design on the improving of pooling level. Raising pooling levels will bring about the income redistribution from rich regions to the poor regions, it will inevitably cause the dissatisfaction of the region that pay out funds and they may become an obstacle during the process of improving the pooling level under the financial division system today. However, it is inevitable to cause different economic development level and different wage gap caused by the resource, environmental and policy among regions and it is also impossible and unrealistic to eliminate the difference.
Under the circumstances that large income gap remains among workers and regions. It may be good for raising pooling level by reducing the income redistribution properly.
In order to raise the pooling level smoothly, several program designs with different functions for income redistribution among regions are given after analyzing factors that will cause inter-regional income transfer. The paper also gives a design with the function of income redistribution from "low" to "high" as time goes on. It is a gradual way to achieve a complete sense of provincial pooling step by step and ultimately to achieve national pooling.
6. Calculations on the balance between income and expenditure as well as analysis on financial support after raising pooling level.
The ability of payment may have pretty important effect on a country or an area's economic growth, social stability, and even the making of the government's policy . In order to know the situation of income and expenses under all kinds of programs, the paper carries out a forecast about the pension balance between income and expenditure after raising the pooling level, and also analyzes the capacity of finance to support pension insurance.
引文
[1]侯文若,孔泾源.社会保险[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004;22-23
[1]魏华林,林宝清.保险学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007:288-289
[1]许艳丽,谭琳.公平理论在农村家庭养老人际关系中的应用[J].人口研究,2001(3):67-68
[1]穆怀中,柳清瑞.中国养老保险制度改革关键问题研究[M].北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社,2006
[1]韩伟.中国统筹养老金调整指数研究[D].博士学位论文,辽宁大学2006:92-93
[1]根据2001年辽宁省社会保障试点方案-养老保险精算假设(张震球,何平和汪泽英),社会平均工资的增长率短期为7.5%,中长期为4-6.5%。
[2]边恕,孙雅娜.辽宁省企业养老保险缴费率水平与财政负担能力分析[J].社会科学辑刊,2005(1)
[1]张立光,邱长溶.我国养老社会保险逃费行为的成因及对策研究[J].财贸经济,2003(9)
[1]王利军.中国养老金缺口财政支付能力研究[M].经济科学出版社,2008:85-86
[1]GDP增长率参照:辽宁省社会保险管理局,辽宁省企业养老保险基金收支精算报告,2004年。
[1]柳清瑞.中国养老金替代率适度水平研究[D].博士论文,辽宁大学2003:189
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