单个银行失败的预测与处理研究
|
摘要
本文针对单个银行失败展开定性和定量的研究,分析了银行失败的原因、识别预测以及处理应对。本文的重点是银行失败的因素识别和失败预测研究。银行失败的因素识别分析可以帮助政府部门和银行界找准问题的所在,采取有效措施防患于未然。预测分析则可以提前发现将要失败的银行,及时做出救助或者关闭的决定,使其负面效应最小化。全文内容安排如下:
第1章说明本文的研究背景、选题意义,评述国内外对银行失败的研究现状,并阐述了本文的创新点和学术价值。
第2章界定银行失败概念并从银行体系内在的不稳定性、市场结构/力量、银行的公司治理、银行效率等角度剖析银行失败的原因。
第3章为银行失败的识别与预测方法研究,研究了各种银行失败预测的模型和方法,包括监管当局的银行失败早期预警体系EWS、外部评级机构的银行评级和各种数量模型方法(线形概率模型、判别分析、Logit分析、Probit分析、COX比例风险模型、非参数特征识别模型以及事件研究法等)。
第4章为使用Logit模型进行单个银行失败估计、识别和预测的完整分析。本章根据1997—2000年间印度尼西亚、马来西亚、韩国和菲律宾四国银行数据,研究银行失败的因素,以决定和预测当恶劣条件发生时什么样的银行更有可能免于失败;对比分析仅仅使用单个银行微观财务数据和使用融合微宏观数据的模型的识别、预测能力的差别。研究发现具有良好的盈利和资本的银行更不可能失败,由于信息不对称的存在,公众无法准确评价银行的状况,一个盈利性强、资本充足的银行往往被公众认为是管理的更好的银行,他们把盈利性和资本看作银行良好性的重要指标,在这两方面都有优势的银行因而也就更有可能在危机中生存下来。使用融合微宏观数据模型的识别、预测能力强于仅仅使用银行微观财务数据模型的识别和预测能力。
第5章研究银行失败的后果和失败处理,在对银行失败后果严密分析的基础上总结和设计合理的处理规则。失败的处理有救助和退出两大类,具体方法的采用必须与具体的问题相适应,但是在处理失败银行时无论采取何种手段和方法,
This paper analyses single bank's failure qualitatively and quantitatively. Analyses the reason, discrimination, prediction, treatment and countermeasures of bank failure. The emphases of this paper are on the factors discrimination and failure prediction. The reseach into factors dicrimination can help government and banks find the question accurately, and take effective measures to prevent trouble before it happens. Prediction analyses can find the failure bank ahead of time, and make the decision on rescue or market exit to minimize its negative effect. The content of the full paper is arranged as follows:Chapter 1 explains the research background and meaning of this paper, comments the current research situation of bank failure both at home and abroad, and sets forth academic value of this reseach.Chapter 2 defines the concept of bank failure, and analyses the reason on the bank failure from the inherent unstability with the banking system, market structure/power, corporate governance, bank efficiency, etc.Chaper 3 studies the discrimination and prediction method of bank failure. Explores various kinds of bank failure models and methods, including early warning system by supervision authorities, the bank outside rating, and econometrics methods, such as, linear probability model, discriminant analysis, Logit analysis, Probit analysis, Cox PHM, Non Parametric Trait Recognition Model, and Event Studies.Chapter 4 employs Logit model to estimate, discriminate and predict the single bank failure completely, according to the data on the banks in Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea S., and Philippine during 1997-2000. The aim of this study is to find bank failure's factors that determine which bank can survive in a worse economic system, and to analyse the discrimination and prediction power difference between the model using only single bank's micro financial data and the model merging macroscopical data and micro financial data. The paper discovers that the bank with good
第1章说明本文的研究背景、选题意义,评述国内外对银行失败的研究现状,并阐述了本文的创新点和学术价值。
第2章界定银行失败概念并从银行体系内在的不稳定性、市场结构/力量、银行的公司治理、银行效率等角度剖析银行失败的原因。
第3章为银行失败的识别与预测方法研究,研究了各种银行失败预测的模型和方法,包括监管当局的银行失败早期预警体系EWS、外部评级机构的银行评级和各种数量模型方法(线形概率模型、判别分析、Logit分析、Probit分析、COX比例风险模型、非参数特征识别模型以及事件研究法等)。
第4章为使用Logit模型进行单个银行失败估计、识别和预测的完整分析。本章根据1997—2000年间印度尼西亚、马来西亚、韩国和菲律宾四国银行数据,研究银行失败的因素,以决定和预测当恶劣条件发生时什么样的银行更有可能免于失败;对比分析仅仅使用单个银行微观财务数据和使用融合微宏观数据的模型的识别、预测能力的差别。研究发现具有良好的盈利和资本的银行更不可能失败,由于信息不对称的存在,公众无法准确评价银行的状况,一个盈利性强、资本充足的银行往往被公众认为是管理的更好的银行,他们把盈利性和资本看作银行良好性的重要指标,在这两方面都有优势的银行因而也就更有可能在危机中生存下来。使用融合微宏观数据模型的识别、预测能力强于仅仅使用银行微观财务数据模型的识别和预测能力。
第5章研究银行失败的后果和失败处理,在对银行失败后果严密分析的基础上总结和设计合理的处理规则。失败的处理有救助和退出两大类,具体方法的采用必须与具体的问题相适应,但是在处理失败银行时无论采取何种手段和方法,
This paper analyses single bank's failure qualitatively and quantitatively. Analyses the reason, discrimination, prediction, treatment and countermeasures of bank failure. The emphases of this paper are on the factors discrimination and failure prediction. The reseach into factors dicrimination can help government and banks find the question accurately, and take effective measures to prevent trouble before it happens. Prediction analyses can find the failure bank ahead of time, and make the decision on rescue or market exit to minimize its negative effect. The content of the full paper is arranged as follows:Chapter 1 explains the research background and meaning of this paper, comments the current research situation of bank failure both at home and abroad, and sets forth academic value of this reseach.Chapter 2 defines the concept of bank failure, and analyses the reason on the bank failure from the inherent unstability with the banking system, market structure/power, corporate governance, bank efficiency, etc.Chaper 3 studies the discrimination and prediction method of bank failure. Explores various kinds of bank failure models and methods, including early warning system by supervision authorities, the bank outside rating, and econometrics methods, such as, linear probability model, discriminant analysis, Logit analysis, Probit analysis, Cox PHM, Non Parametric Trait Recognition Model, and Event Studies.Chapter 4 employs Logit model to estimate, discriminate and predict the single bank failure completely, according to the data on the banks in Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea S., and Philippine during 1997-2000. The aim of this study is to find bank failure's factors that determine which bank can survive in a worse economic system, and to analyse the discrimination and prediction power difference between the model using only single bank's micro financial data and the model merging macroscopical data and micro financial data. The paper discovers that the bank with good
引文
[1].Caprio,Gerard等:《银行危机的防范:近期全球银行倒闭风潮的教训》,北京:中国金融出版社,1999年版。
[2].Goldstein,Morris。《新兴经济体银行危机的根源和早期预警指标》,《国际经济评论》,2001年第5—6期。
[3].Wooldridge,J.M. 《计量经济学导论:现代观点》,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2003年版。
[4].《国际金融研究》编辑部:《亚洲金融危机大事记》,《国际金融研究》1999年第7期。
[5].艾伦·加特(美)著,陈雨露等译:《管制、放松与重新管制》,北京:经济科学出版社,1999年版。
[6].安得鲁·盛:《银行业重组—从20世纪80年代银行危机中得到的教训》,北京:中国金融出版社,1999年版。
[7].北京大学中国经济研究中心宏观组:《设计有效的存款保险制度》,《金融研究》,2003年第11期。
[8].陈建梁:《银行业风险评估理论—模型与实证》,广州:广东人民出版社,2002年版。
[9].陈志英:《储贷机构(银行)失败处理的评估与政策选择》,广州:广东人民出版社,2004年版。
[10].邓红霞、崔建华:《存款保险与银行业稳定性分析》,《经济科学》,2003年第4期。
[11].董小君:《金融风险预警机制研究》,北京:经济管理出版社,2004年版。
[12].范晓清、白娜:《中国国有商业银行盈利性实证分析》,《财贸经济》,2003年第10期。
[13].付强、金雪军:《监管评级与问题银行预测》,《技术经济》,2005年第2期。
[14].付强:《单个银行失败的因素分析》,《经济科学》,2005年第1期。
[15].付强:《我国商业银行盈利性实证分析》,《价格理论与实践》,2004年第11期。
[16].葛兆强:《问题银行及其政府救助的理论分析》,《贵州财经学院学报》,2000年第3期。
[17].顾晓敏、朱赟赟:《国有商业银行与股份制银行盈利能力比较》,《上海金融》,2003年第8期。
[18]。郭仌、梁世栋、方兆本:《消费者信用评估分析综述》,《系统工程》,2001年第6期。
[19].哈拉尔德·贝宁克:《一种新的理念—欧洲影子金融管理委员会对有问题银行的处理意见》,《国际金融研究》1999年第3期,原文载英国《银行家》1998年第8期。
[20].韩俊:《银行体系稳定性研究》,北京:中国金融出版社,2000年版。
[21].何建雄:《建立金融安全预警系统:指标框架与运作机制》,《金融研究》,2001年第1期。
[22].胡正衡:《我国商业银行信息披露的改进方向》,《中国金融》,2004年第15期。
[23].胡祖六:《东亚的银行体系与金融危机》,《国际经济评论》,1998年第3期。
[24].黄小军:《美国金融监管机构如何分析银行盈利》,《国际金融研究》,2000年第8期。
[25].金德尔伯格:《经济过热、经济恐慌及经济崩溃—金融危机史》,北京:北京大学出版社,1996年版。
[26].金雪军:《论国际商业银行的网络营销策略》,《国际金融研究》,2000年8期。
[27].金雪军、付明明:《信用运行系统的制度化构建》,《技术经济》,2004年第 9期。
[28].金雪军、付强:《单个银行的失败及其应对研究》,《河北经贸大学学报》,2004年第5期,人大复印资料《金融与保险》2005年第2期。
[29].金雪军、蒋攀峰:《民营银行存款保险制度的博弈论分析》,《财经论丛》,2003年第2期。
[30].金雪军、李红坤:《规制理论演进与商业银行规管》,《济南金融》,2004年第10期。
[31].金雪军、刘春杰:《网络银行的风险管理研究》,《金融电子化》,2000年第11期。
[32].金雪军、徐光:《现代金融市场监管体系变迁及对中国的借鉴》,《商业经济与管理》,2002年第9期。
[33].金雪军、徐光:《发展中国家银行业开放的效应研究》,《投资研究》,2003年第10期。
[34].卡尔—约翰·林德格林等:《金融部门危机与重组—亚洲的经验教训》,北京:中国金融出版社,2000年版。
[35].李文泓:《监管当局处理有问题银行所面临的两难选择》,《世界经济》,2003年第6期。
[36].李晓西:《21世纪中国银行业风险与防范》,广州:广东经济出版社,1999年版。
[37].李宗怡、冀勇鹏:《我国是否应该建立显性存款保险制度》,《国际金融研究》,2003年第7期。
[38].林平、赵永伟:《农村信用社危机预警体系研究》,《金融研究》,2001年第6期。
[39].林平:《银行危机监管论》,北京:中国金融出版社,2002年版。
[40].林毅夫:《亚洲金融危机再回首》,《中国物资流通》,2001年第1期。
[41].刘莉亚、任若恩:《银行危机与货币危机共生性关系的实证研究》,《经济研究》,2003年第10期。
[42].刘卫江:《中国银行体系脆弱性问题的实证研究》,《管理世界》,2002年第 7期。
[43].刘志强:《国外预警金融危机的方法评介》,《世界经济》,2000年第7期。
[44].陆军、魏煜:《我国商业银行的盈利能力与资产负债结构分析》,《金融研究》,1999第11期
[45].默顿·米勒:《美国银行体制的弊端》,《国际金融研究》,1997年第1期。
[46].纽行:《美国银行业公司治理机制对中国国有商业银行重组的启示》,《国际金融研究》,2003年第9期。
[47].潘硕健、周清杰、陈工孟:《最后贷款人政策与银行危机管理》,《当代财经》2002年第8期。
[48].阙方平:《有问题银行处置制度安排研究》,北京:中国金融出版社,2001年版。
[49].苏同华:《银行危机论》,北京:中国金融出版社,2000年版。
[50].王爱民、王惠、王金桃:《国内外银行危机研究述评》,《当代财经》,2003年第1期。
[51].王磊:《香港处置有问题银行之经验》,《西安金融》2003年第8期。
[52].王亚雄、李向明、李超:《我国商业银行盈利能力统计分析》,《江苏统计》,2002年第5期。
[53].新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典,北京:经济科学出版社,2000年版。
[54].徐孟洲、郑人玮:《我国银行危机救助法律制度的缺陷及其改进》,《中央财经大学学报》,2004年第2期。
[55].徐振东:《论在银行公司治理中实现三权有效制衡》,《国际金融研究》,2003年第9期。
[56].闫龙光:《论我国银行业资本充足管制问题》,《金融时报》理论版,2003-09-29。
[57].杨凯生:《银行风险防范和危机化解》,北京:中国金融出版社,2000年版。
[58].叶望春、夏清华:《银行危机对商业银行资产配置的启示》,《世界经济》,2001年第9期。
[59].易纲:《银行不良资产率与地方政府政绩考核》,《财经》,2002年第18期。
[60].张杰:《中国国有银行的资本结构、金融产权交易及其政策含义》载《制度、渐进转轨与中国金融改革》,北京:中国金融出版社,1999年版。
[61].张玲:《财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用》,《预测》,2000年第6期。
[62].张强、付强:《加入WTO后城市商业银行的发展战略探讨》,《云南财贸学院学报》,2001年第4期。
[63].张强、付强:《我国商业银行的信息披露制度建设》,《金融论坛》,2002年第5期;人大复印资料《金融与保险》,2002年第9期。
[64].张强:人民银行总行课题:《我国农村合作金融机构的风险防范与处置》,2000年。
[65].张俏:《国外的银行预警制度》,《现代商业银行》,2003年第6期。
[66].张元萍、孙刚:《金融危机预警系统的理论与实证分析》,《国际金融研究》2003年第10期。
[67].中国银行业监督管理委员会:http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/yaowen/detail.asp?id=219&keyword=关于将次级定期债务计入附属资本的通知,2003、12、9。
[68].中国银行业监督管理委员会:股份制商业银行风险评级体系(暂行),http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/falvfagui/detail.asp?id=90&keyword=,2004、2、24。
[69].中国银行业监督管理委员会:农村合作金融机构风险评价和预警指标体系(试行)银监发[2004]1号。
[70].朱剑锋:《借鉴国际银行经验构建我国银行业风险管理体系》,《国际金融研究》2004年第4期。
[71]. Abrams, B. A. and Huang, C. J. "Predicting Bank Failure: The Role of Structure in Affecting Recent Failure Experiences in the USA." Applied Economics 19 (Spring 1987) pp. 1291-1302.
[72]. Aharony, Joseph and Swary, Yitzhak. "Additional Evidence on the Information-based Contagion Effects of Bank Failures." Journal of Banking & Finance, 20 (1996), pp. 57-69.
[73]. Allen, Franklin and Douglas Gale. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance 53 (1998), pp. 1245-1284.
[74]. Allen, Franklin and Douglas Gale. "Financial Contagion." Journal of Political Economy 108(2000), pp. 1-33.
[75]. Almazan, Andres. "A Model of Competition in Banking: Bank Capital vs. Expertise." Journal of Financial Intermediation 11:1 (2002), pp. 87-121.
[76]. Altunbas, Yener; Lynne Evans and Philip Molyneus. "Bank Ownership and Efficiency." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.33, No.4 (November 2001), pp.926-954.
[77]. Avery, Robert B.; Belton, Terrence M. and Goldberg, Michael A. "Market Discipline in Regulating Bank Risk: New Evidence from the Capital Markets." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.20,No.4 (November 1988).
[78]. Barr, R. S.; L. M. Seiford and T. F. Siems. "An Envelopment-analysis Approach to Measuring the Managerial Efficiency of Banks." Annals of Operations Research 45(1993), pp. 1-19.
[79]. Basel committee on Banking Supervision. Framework for internal control systems in banking organizations, September 1998.
[80]. Basel committee on Banking Supervision. A New Capital Adequacy Framework. Consultative Paper Basel. July 1999.
[81]. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Supervisory Guidance on Dealing with Weak Banks. Report of the Task Force on Dealing with Weak Banks. March 2002.
[82]. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The New Basel Capital Accord. 2003.
[83]. Beck, Thorsten; Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Ross Levine. "Bank Concentration and Crises." NBER Working Paper No. 9921, August, 2003.
[84]. Benston, George J. and Clifford W. Smith, Jr. "A Transactions Cost Approach to the Theory of Financial Intermediation." Journal of Finance 31 (May, 1976), pp.215-231.
[85]. Beston, George J. and Kaufman, George G. "Is Banking and Payment System Fragile." Journal of Financial Services Research, 9 (1995), pp.209-240.
[86]. Beston, George J. and Kaufman, George G. "The Appropriate Role of Bank Regulation." Economic Journal, 106 (436), May, 1996, pp. 688-97.
[87]. Bolton, Patrick, and Xavier Freixas. "Equity, Bonds, and Bank Debt: Capital Structure and Financial Market Equilibrium under Asymmetric Information." Journal of
Political Economy 108:2 (April, 2000), pp. 324-351.
[88]. Bongini, Paola; Stijn Claessens and Giovanni Ferri. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions." The World Bank Working Paper No.2265, January 2000.
[89]. Boot, Amoud and Anjan Thakor. "Can Relationship Banking Survive Competition?" Journal of Finance 55:2(2000), pp 679-713.
[90]. Boyd, J. H. and De Nicolo, G. "Competition and Bank Risk Revisited." University of Minnesota mimeo, 2003.
[91]. Boyd, John H. and David E. Runkle. "Size and Performance of Banking Firms: Testing the Predictions of Theory." Journal of Monetary Economics 31, 1993, pp.47-67.
[92]. Bremer, Marc and Richard H. Pettway. "Information and the Market's Perceptions of Japanese Bank Risk: Regulation, Environment, and Disclosure." Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002), pp. 119-139.
[93]. Calomiris, Charles and Joseph R. Mason. "Contagion and Bank Failures During the Great Depression: The June 1932 Chicago Banking Panic." NBER Working Paper, November 1994.
[94]. Calomiris, Charles and Joseph R. Mason. "Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression." National Bureau of Economics, Working Paper no. 7919. 2000.
[95]. Calomiris, Charles and Joseph R. Mason. "Consequences of Bank Distress During the Great Depression." Columbia University, working paper, 2001.
[96]. Caminal, Ramon and Carmen Matutes. "Market Power and Banking Failures." International Journal of Industrial Organization 20(2002), pp. 1341-1361.
[97]. Cebenoyan, A. Sinan; Elizabeth Cooperman and Charles Register. "Ownership Structure, Charter Value, and Risk-Taking Behavior for Thrifts." Financial Management 28 (1999), pp. 43-60.
[98]. Cerasi, Vittoria and Sonja Daltung. "The Optimal Size of a Bank: Costs and Benefits of Diversification." European Economic Review 44:9 (October, 2000), pp.1701-1726.
[99]. Chan, Y.; Greenbaum, S. and Thakor, A. "Is Fairly Priced Deposit Insurance Possible?" Journal of finance 47(1992), pp. 227-245.
[100]. Chui, Michael; Prasanna Gai and Andrew G. Haldane. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: Analytics and Implications for Public Policy." Journal of Banking & Finance 26 (2002), pp. 519-546.
[101]. Cole, Rebel A. and Jeffery W. Gunther. "Separating Likelihood and Timing of Bank Failure." Journal of Banking & Finance 19 (1995), pp. 1073-1089.
[102]. Cole, Rebel A. and Jeffrey W. Gunther. "Predicting Bank Failure: a Comparison of on- and off-site Monitoring Systems." Journal of Financial Services Research 13(1998), pp .103-117.
[103]. Cooper, Russell and Thomas W. Ross. "Bank Runs: Liquidity Costs and Investment Distortion." Journal of Monetary Economics 41 (1998), pp.27-38.
[104]. Corbett, Jenny and Mitchell, Janet. "Banking Crises and Bank Rescues: The Effect of Reputation." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.32, No.3 (August 2000), pp. 474-512.
[105]. Cox, D.R. "Partial likelihood." Biometrika 62, 1975. pp.269-276.
[106]. Cox, D.R. "Regression models and life-tables (with discussion)". J. R. Stat. Soc. 34B, 1972, pp. 187-220.
[107]. Cox, D.R., Oakes, D. Analysis of Survival Data. Chapman and Hall, London and New York, 1984.
[108]. Demirguc-Kunt, A. and Detragiache, E. "Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility." Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics. 1998a, pp.303-331.
[109]. Demirguc-Kunt, A. and Detragiache, E. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries." IMF Staff Papers 45, May 1998b, pp. 81-109.
[110]. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli and Detragiache, Enrica, "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivaariate Logit Approach with an Application to 1996-1997 Banking Crisis." Policy Research Working Paper No.2085, 1999. Washington: World Bank.
[111]. Demirgtlc-Kunt, Asli, and Harry Huizinga. "Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and profitability: Some international evidence." The World Bank Review. May 1999, Vol.13, No.2, pp.379-408.
[112]. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Enrica Detragiache. "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation." Working paper, International Monetary Fund, 2000.
[113]. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Enrica Detragiache, and Poonam Gupta. "Inside the Crisis: An Empirical Analysis of Banking Systems in Distress," World Bank, working paper, 2000.
[114]. Demsetz, Rebecca; Marc Saidenberg and Philip Strahan. "Banks with Something to Lose: The Disciplinary Role of Franchise Value." Economic Policy Review 2(1996), pp. 1-14.
[115]. Demsetz, Rebecca; Marc Saidenberg and Philip Strahan. "Agency Problems and Risk Taking in Banks." Federal Reserve Bank of New York, working paper, 1997.
[116]. De Nicolo, Gianni. "Size, Charter Value and Risk in Banking: An International Perspective," Working paper, International Monetary Fund, 2001.
[117]. Diamond, D. W. and Dybvig, P. H. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity." Political Economy, 91, pp. 401-419, 1983.
[118]. Diamond, Douglas W. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring." Review of Economic Studies 51 (July, 1984), pp.393-414.
[119]. Diamond, Douglas W. "Liquidity, Banks, and Markets." Journal of Political Economy, 1997, Vol. 105,No.5
[120]. Diamond, Douglas W. and Rajan, Raghuram G. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking." Journal of Political Economy, 2001, Vol. 109, No.2
[121]. Dziobek, Claudia and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. "Lessons from Systemic Bank Restructuring: A Survey of 24 Countries," IMF Working Paper, (1997), pp. 97-161.
[122]. Estrella, Arturo; Sangkyun Park and Stavros Peristiani. "Capital Ratios as Predictors of Bank Failure." Economic Policy Review - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, July, 2000, pp.33-52.
[123]. Fama, E.; Fisher L.; Jensen, L. and Roll, R. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information." International Economic Review 10 (February 1969), pp. 1-21.
[124]. FDIC: Mandate for Change: Restructuring the Banking Industry. August 1987, pp.56-57.
[125]. Fisher, Irving M. "The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depression." Econometric 1 (1933),pp.337-357.
[126]. Fisher, Irving M. Booms and Depressions. New York: Adelphi, 1932.
[127]. Flannery, M. J. and Sorescu, S. M. "Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991." J. Finance 51(1996), pp. 1347-1377.
[128]. Flannery, Mark J. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.30, No.3 (August 1998, Part 1).
[129]. Flannery, Mark. "The Faces of Market Discipline." Journal of Financial Services Research 20(2001), pp.107-119.
[130]. Flannery, Mark and Kasturi Rangan. "Market Forces at Work in the Banking Industry: Evidence from the Capital Buildup of the 1990s." University of Florida, working paper, 2001.
[131]. Fohlin, Caroline. "Relationship Banking, Liquidity, and Investment in the German Industrialization." Journal of Finance 53(1998), pp.1737-1758.
[132]. Fohlin, Caroline. "Universal Banking in Pre-World War I Germany: Model or Myth?" Explorations in Economic History 36(1999), pp.305-343.
[133]. Freixas, Xavier and Jean Charles Rochet. Microeconomics of Banking. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. 1997.
[134]. Gajewsky, G. R. "Modeling Bank closures in the 1980's: the roles of regulatory behaviour, farm lending and the local economy," in G. Kaufman, ed., Research in Financial Services: private and public policy, Green, Conn., JAI Press Inc. 1990.
[135]. Ganesan, P. "Determinants of profits and profitability of public sector banks in India: A Profit function approach." Journal of Financial Management & Analysis. 14(1):2001,pp.27-37.
[136]. Garcia, Gillian. "Deposit Insurance: A Survey of Actual and Best Practices." IMF Working Paper, No. 96/83, 1999.
[137]. Gehrig, Thomas. "Screening Cross-Border Banking and the Allocation of Credit." Research in Economics 52:4 (December, 1998), pp.387-407.
[138]. Gehrig, Thomas and Rune Stenbacka. "Information Sharing in Banking: A Collusive Device?" CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2911, 2001.
[139]. Gennotte, Gerard and David Pyle. "Capital Controls and Bank Risk." Journal of Banking and Finance 15(1991), pp.805-824.
[140]. Gilbert, Meyer and Vaughan. "Could a CAMELS Downgrade Model Improve
Off-site Surveillance?" Review federal Bank of St. Louis, January/February 2002, pp.47-63.
[141]. Gilbert, Meyer and Vaughan. "The Role of Supervisory Screens and Econometric Models in Off-site Surveillance." Review federal Bank of St. Louis, November/December 1999, pp.31-56.
[142]. Goldsmith, R. W. Comment On Hyman P. Minsky, The Financial Instability Hypothesis. In Financial Crises, Theory, History and Policy, ed. C. P. Kinderlberger and J. P. laffargue, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.
[143]. Gonzalez-Hermosllo, Brenda. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes." IMF Working Paper (1999), pp.99-33.
[144]. Goodfriend, Marvin and Robert G King. "Financial Deregulation, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking." In: William Harf and Rose kushmeider, eds., Restructuring the Financial System. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 1988, pp.216-253.
[145]. Goodhart, C. A. E. and D. Schonmaker. Institutional Separation Between Supervisory and Monetary Agencies, in Goodhart, The Central Bank and the Financial System, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1995.
[146]. Gorton, Gary and Donald Mullineaux. "The Joint Production of Confidence: Endogenous Regulation and the 19th Century Commercial Bank Clearinghouse," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 19(4), 1987, pp.458-468.
[147]. Gorton, Gary. "Clearinghouses and the Origin of Central Banking in the U.S.." Journal of Economic History 45(2), 1985, pp.277-283.
[148]. Graham, F. C. and Horner, J. E. "Bank Failure: An Evalution of the Factors Contributing to the Failure of National Banks." in The Financial Services Industry in the Year 2000: Risk and Efficiency. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (May 1988) pp. 405-435.
[149]. Green, Edward and Ping Lin. "Diamond and Dybvig's Classic Theory of Financial Intermediation: What's Missing?" Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 24(2000), pp.3-13.
[150]. Grossman, Richard. "The Shoe That Didn't Drop: Explaining Banking Stability During the Great Depression," Journal of Economic History 54, 1994, pp.
654-682.
[151]. Gupta, Atul and Lalatendu Misra.. "Failure and Failure Resolution in the U.A. Thrift and Banking Industries." Financial Management 28(1999), pp.87-105.
[152]. Hanweck, G. "Predicting Bank Failure." In Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics. Financial Studies Section, Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System: Washington, DC. (1977).
[153]. Hart, Oliver, and John Moore. "Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt." Quarterly Journal of Economics 113:1 (February, 1998), pp. 1-41.
[154]. Hawkins, J. and P. Turner. "Bank Restructuring in Practice: An Overview." BIS Policy Papers No 6, Bank for International Settlements, Basel Switzerland, 1999.
[155]. Heffernan, Shelagh. Modern Banking in Theory and Practice. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1996.
[156]. Hellman, Thomas; Kevin Murdock and Joseph E. Stiglitz. "Liberalization, moral hazard in banking and prudential regulation: Are capital controls enough?" American Economic Review 90(1), 2000, pp 147-165.
[157]. Holmstrom, Bengt and Jean Tirole. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity." Journal of Political Economy 106(1998), pp. 1-40.
[158]. Honohan, Patric. "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Economies: Diagnosis and Prediction." BIS Working Paper No.39. 1997.
[159]. Houston, Joel and Christopher James. "CEO Compensation and Bank Risk: Is Compensation in Banking Structured to Promote Risk Taking?" Journal of Monetary Economics 36(1995), pp.405-431.
[160]. Houston, Joel, and Christopher James. "Bank Information Monopolies and the Mix of Private and Public Debt Claims." Journal of Finance 51:5 (December, 1996), pp.1863-1889.
[161]. IMF. World Economic Outlook. May 1998.
[162]. Jacklin, Charles J. and Sudipto Bhattacharya. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications." Journal of Political Economy, 1988, Vol, 96. No. 3
[163]. James, Christopher. "Bank Debt Restructurings and the Composition of Exchange Offers in Financial Distress." Journal of Finance 51(1996), pp.711-727.
[164]. Jean-Baptiste, Eslyn. "Demand Deposits as an Incentive Mechanism." Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, mimeo, 1999.
[165]. Jenson, M. C. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems." Journal of Finance 48(3) 1993, pp. 831-880.
[166]. John, K.; John, T. A. and Senbet, L. W. "Risk-shifting Incentives of Depository Institutions: A New Perspective on Federal Deposit Insurance Reform." Journal of Banking and Finance 15 1991, pp. 895-915.
[167]. Kanatas, George, and Jianping Qi. "Imperfect Competition, Agency, and Financing Decisions." Journal of Business 74:2 (April, 2001), pp.307-338.
[168]. Kane, Edward and Berry Wilson. "A Contracting Theory Interpretation of the Origins of Federal Deposit Insurance." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 30(1998), pp.573-595.
[169]. Kareken, John H. and Neil Wallace. "Deposit Insurance and Bank Regulation: A Partial-Equilibrium Exposition." Journal of Business (July 1978), pp.413-438.
[170]. Kaufman, George. "Bank Contagion: A Review of the Theory and Evidence." Journal of Financial Services Research 8, 1994, pp. 123-150.
[171]. Kaufman, George. " Lender of Last Render: A Contemporary Perspective." Journal of Financial Services Research 5, 1991, pp.95-110.
[172]. Kindleberger, Charles P. Manias, Panics, and Crashes. New York: Basic Books. 1978.
[173]. Kolari, James; Glennon, Dennis; Shin, Hwan and Caputo, Michele. "Predicting Large US Commercial Bank Failures." Journal of Economics and Business 54 (2002), pp. 361-387.
[174]. Korobow, L.; Stuhr, D. P. and Martin, D. "A Probalistic Appproach to Early Warning of Changes in Bank Financial Condition." Federal Bank of New York, Monthly Review 58 (July 1976), pp. 187-194.
[175]. Krugman, P., Bubble, Boom, Crash: Theoretical Notes on Asia's Crisis. Mimeo, 1998.
[176]. Krysanowski, Lawrence and Gordon S. Roberts. "Perspectives on Canadian Banking Insolvency During the 1930s." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31(1999), pp.130-136.
[177]. Laeven, Luc. "Risk and efficiency in East Asian Bank." Working Bank Working Paper No.2255 December, 1999.
[178]. Lane, William R.; Stephen W. Loony and James W. Wansley. "An Application of the COX Proportional Hazards Model to Bank Failure." Journal of Banking and Finance, 1986.
[179]. Levine, Ross. "Bank-based or Market-based Financial Systems: Which is Better?" University of Minnesota, mimeo, 2000.
[180]. Litain, R. E. What Should Banks Do? The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. 1987, pp.86.
[181]. Litner, John. "The Valuation of Risky Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets." Review of Economics and Statistics 50 (1986).
[182]. Mailath, George and Loretta Mester. "A Positive Analysis of Bank Closure." Journal of Financial Intermediation 3(1994), pp.272-299.
[184]. Manove, Michael; Jorge Padilla and Marco Pagano. "Collateral versus Project Screening: A Model of Lazy Banks." RAND Journal of Economics 32:4 (Winter, 2001), pp.726-744.
[185]. Martin, D. "Early Warning of Bank Failure: A Logit Regression Approach." Journal of Banking and Finance 1 (November 1977), pp. 249-276.
[186]. Matutes, C. and Vives, X. "Competition for Deposits, Fragility, and Insurance." Journal of Financial Intermediation 5(1996), pp. 184-216.
[187]. Matutes, C. and Vives, X. "Imperfect Competition, Risk Taking, and Regulation in Banking." European Economic Review 44(2000), pp. 1-34.
[188]. McKenzie, Joseph; Rebel Cole and Richard Brown. "Moral Hazard, Portfolio Allocation, and Asset Returns for Thrift Institutions." Journal of Financial Services Research 5(1992), pp.315-339.
[189]. Meltzer, Allan H. "Financial failures and financial Policies." In: George G. Kaufman and Roger C. Kormendi, eds., Deregulating Financial Services: Public Policy in Flux. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company. 1986, pp.79-96.
[190]. Merton, Robert C. "An Analytic Derivation of the Cost of Deposit Insurance and Loan Guarantees." Journal of Banking and Finance (June 1977), pp.3-11.
[191]. Meyer, Paul A. and Howard W. Pifer. "Prediction of Bank Failure." The Journal of Finance, Volume 25(4), 1970. pp. 853-868.
[192]. Minsky, Hyman P. "A Theory of Systematic Financial Fragility." In: Edward J. Altman and Arnold W. Sametz, eds., Financial Crises: Institutions and Markets in a Fragile Environment. New York: Wiley. 1977, pp. 138-152.
[193]. Minsky, Hyman P. "Financial Instability Revisited: The Economics Disaster." Reappraisal of The Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism, 3(June 1972), pp.95-136.
[194]. Minsky, Hyman P. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Clarification." In: Martin Feldstein, ed., The Risk of Economic Crisis. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. 1991, pp. 158-170.
[195]. Miron, Jeffery A. "Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and the Founding of the Fed." American Economic Review 76(1986), pp.125-140.
[196]. Mishkin, Frederic S. "Financial Consolidation: Dangers and Opportunities." Journal of Banking and Finance 23, 1999, pp.675-691.
[197]. Moen, Jon and Ellis Tallman. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907." Journal of Economic History 60(2000), pp.145-163.
[198]. Molina, Carlos A. "Predicting Bank Failures Using a Hazard Model: the Venezuelan Banking Crisis." Emerging Markets Review 3 (2002), pp. 31-50.
[199]. Mount, C. C. "The Marginal Impact of Cash Flow Information on Bank Failure Prediction: An Empirical Investigation." A PH.D Dissertation, Kent State University, September 1992.
[200]. Nakaso, Hiroshi. "The Financial Crisis in Japan During the 1990s: How the Bank of Japan Responded and the Lessons Learnt." BIS Papers, No 6. Monetary and Economic Department, October 2001.
[201]. O'Hara, Maureen and Wayne Shaw. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being 'Too Big To Fail'." Journal of Finance 45(1990), pp.1587-1600.
[202]. Park, Sangkyun. "Bank Failure Contagion in Historical Perspective." Journal of Monetary Economics 28(1991), pp.271-286.
[203]. Peek, Joe and Eric Rosengren. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27 (1995), pp.625-638.
[204]. Peek, Joe and Eric Rosengren. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan." American Economic Review 87(4), 1997, pp.495-505.
[205]. Peek, Joe and Eric Rosengren. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Economic Activity in the United States." American Economic Review 87(4), 2000, pp. 30-45.
[206]. Postlewaite, Andrew and Xavier Vives. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon." Journal of Political Economy 95(1987), pp.485-491.
[207]. Rochet, Jean-Charles and Jean Tirole. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 28(1996), pp.733-62.
[208]. Rolnick, Arthur and Warren Weber. "The Causes of Free Bank Failures: A Detailed Examination." Journal of Monetary Economics 14 (1984), pp.267-292.
[209]. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Bank Failure: An Evaluation of the Factors Contributing to the Failure of National Banks. Washington, DC: OCC 1988.
[210]. Park, Sangkyun. "Bank Failure Contagion in historical Perspective." Journal of Monetary Economics, 28 (1991), pp. 271-286.
[211]. Pettway, R. H. "Potential Insolvency, Market Efficiency and Bank Regulation of Larger Commercial Banks." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 15 (March 1980) pp. 219-236.
[212]. Pettway, R. H. and Sinkey, J. F. "Establishing On-site Bank Examination Priorities: An Early Warning System Using Accounting and Market Information." Journal of Finance 35 (March 1980) pp. 137-150.
[213]. Radelet, S. and Sachs, J. "The onset of the east Asian financial crisis." Harvard Institute for International Development, Mimeo. 1998.
[214]. Radelet, Steven and Sachs, J. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Macroeconomic 1, 1998, pp. 1-90.
[215]. Rojas-Suarez, Liliana. "Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crisis: What Works for Developing Country?" Unpublished Manuscript, February 1998.
[216]. Saunders, Anthony and Berry Wilson. "Contagious Bank Runs: Evidence from the 1929-1933 Period." Journal of Financial Intermediation 5(1996), pp.409-423.
[217]. Saunders, Anthony and Berry Wilson. "The Impact of Consolidation and
Safety-net Support on Canadian, US, and UK Banks: 1893-1992." Journal of Banking and Finance 23(1999), pp.537-571.
[218]. Saunders, Anthony and Berry Wilson. "An Analysis of Bank Charter Value and Its Risk-Constraining Incentives." Journal of Financial Services Research 19(2001), pp.185-195.
[219]. Schwartz, Anna. "Financial Stability and the Federal Safety Net." In: Rose Marie Kushmeider and William S. Haraf, eds., Restructuring Banking and Financial Services in America. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute. 1988, pp.34-62.
[220]. Schwartz, Anna. "Real and Pseudo-financial Crises." In: Forrest Capie and Geoffery E. Wood, eds., Financial Crises and the World Banking System. London: Macmillan, 1986, pp. 11-31.
[221]. Schwartz, Anna. "The Misuse of the Fed's Discount Window." Review (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) 74, September/October 1992, pp.59-69.
[222]. Secrist, H. National Bank Failures and Non-Failures: An Autopsy and Diagnosis. Principia Press, Bloomington, IN. 1938.
[223]. Sharp, William F. "A Simplified Model for Portolio Analysis." Management Science 9 (January 1963) pp. 277-293.
[224]. Sharp, William F. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk." Journal of Finance 19 (September 1964) pp. 425-552.
[225]. Sharpe, S. "Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships." Journal of Finance 45(1990), pp.1069-1087.
[226]. Sharpe, Steven. "Bank Capitalization, Regulation, and the Credit Crunch: A Critical Review of the Research Findings." Finance and Economics Discussion Series Paper No. 95/20(1995), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
[227]. Sheng. A. Bank Restructuring: Lessens from the 1980s. World Bank, Washington D. C. 1996.
[228]. Shick, R. A. and Sherman, L. F. "Bank Stock Prices as an Early Warning System for Changes in Condition." Journal of Bank Research 11 (Autumn 1980) pp. 136-146.
[229]. Simpson, W. G. "Capital Market Prediction of Large Commercial Bank Failures: An Alternative Analysis." Financial Review 18 (1983), pp. 33-55.
[230]. Simpson, W. Gary and Anne E. Gleason. "Board Structure, Ownership, and Financial Distress in Banking Firms." International Review of Economics and Finance 8(1999), pp. 281-292.
[231]. Sinkey, J. F. "Identifying Problem Banks. How do the Banking Authorities Measure a Bank's risk Exposure?" Journal of Money and Banking 10 (May 1978) pp. 184-193.
[232]. Sinkey, J. F. and Walker, D. "Problem Banks: Identification and Characteristics." Journal of Bank Research 5 (Winter 1975), pp.208-217.
[233]. Smith, Bruce. "Private Information, Deposit Insurance Rules and the Stability of the Banking System." Journal of Monetary Economics 14(1984), pp.293-317.
[234]. Smith, Bruce. "Bank Panics, Suspensions and Geography: Some Notes on the 'Contagion of Fear' in Banking." Economic Inquiry 24(1991), pp.230-248.
[235]. Staff report. A Analysis of Federal Reserve Discount Window Loans to Failed Institutions. Washington, DC: U.S. House of Representations, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs. 1991.
[236]. Stein, Jeremy. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy." RAND Journal of Economics 29:3 (Autumn, 1998), pp.466-486.
[237]. Stiglitz, J. "Sound finance and sustainable development in Asia: Keynote address to the Asia development forum." Mimeo, 1998. Available at: http://www.worldb-ank.org/html/extdre/ speech, html.
[238]. Stiglitz, J. and A. Weiss. "Credie Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information." American Economic Review 71, 1981, pp.393-410.
[239]. Stomper, Alex. "A Theory of Banks' Industry Expertise, Market Power, and Credit Risk." Working paper, University of Vienna, 2001.
[240]. Sundararajan, V. and T. Balino. "Issues in Recent Banking Crises." Banking Crises: Case and Issues, IMF, 1992.
[241]. Sunderarajan, V.; Charles A. Enoch; San Jose Armida; Paul L. Hilbers and Russell C. Krueger. "Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices." IMF Occasional Paper No.212, April 2002.
[242]. Thakor, A. V. and P. Wilson. "Capital requirements, Loan Renegotiation and
the Borrower's Choice of Financing Source." Journal of Banking and Finance 19(1995), pp.693-712.
[243]. Thakor, A. V. and R. Callaway. "Costly Information Production Equilibria in the Bank Credit Market with Applications to Credit Rationing." Journal of Finacial Quantitative Analysis 18(June, 1983),pp.229-248.
[244]. Thies, Clifford and Daniel Gerlowski. "Bank Capital and Bank Failure, 1921-1932: Testing the White Hypothesis." Journal of Economic History 53(1993), pp.908-914.
[245]. Thomoson, J. "Modeling the bank regulator's closure option: a two-step logit regression approach." Journal of financial Services Research 6, 1992, pp.5-23.
[246]. Thomoson, J. "Predicting Bank failures in 1980s." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Review, First Quarter 1991, pp. 1-20.
[247]. Thomson, James B. "An Analysis of Bank Failures: 1984-1989." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper 8916, December 1989.
[248]. Tsuji, Kenji. "Bank Capital Regulation, Diversification Loss and the Probability of Bank Failure." Japan and the World Economy 11(1999), pp. 485-495.
[249]. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline and Beatrice Weder. "Sources of Contagion: Finance or Trade?" International Monetary Fund Working Paper 99/146, 1999.
[250]. Vasiliou, Dimitrios. "Linking profits to Greek bank production management." International Journal of Production Economics, 43(1996). pp.67-73.
[251]. Von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig. "Intermediated versus Direct Investment: Optimal Liquidity Provision and Dynamic Incentive Compatibility." Journal of Financial Intermediation 7:2 (1998), pp. 177-197.
[252]. Wagster, John. "The Basle Accord of 1988 and the International Credit Crunch of 1989-1992." Journal of Financial Services Research 15(1999), pp.123-143.
[253]. Waldo, Douglas G. "Bank Runs, the Deposit-Currency Ratio and the Interest Rate." Journal of Monetary Economics 15(1985), pp.269-277.
[254]. Wall, Larry D. and David R. Peterson. "The Effect of Continental Illinois' Failure on the Financial Performance of Other Banks." Journal of Monetary Economics 26(1990), pp.77-99.
[255]. Wallison, Peter. Back from the Brink: A Practical Plan for Privatizing Deposit
Insurance and Strengthening Our Banks and Thrifts. American Enterprise Institute, 1990.
[256]. Weiss, Andrew. "Imperfect Information, Credit Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," in Financial Markets and Incomplete Information, edited by Sudipto Bhattacharya and George Constantinides (Rowman and Littlefield; Maryland), 1989, pp.304-316.
[257]. West, R. C. "A Factor Analytic Approach to Bank Condition." Journal of Banking and Finance 9 (June 1985), pp. 253-273.
[258]. Whalen, G "A proportional hazard model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool." Econ. Rev. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) 27, 1991,pp.21-31.
[259]. Wheelock, David C. and Paul W. Wilson. "Can Deposit Insurance Increase the Risk of Bank failure? Some Historical Evidence." Review-Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May/Jun 1994 76(3), pp.57-71.
[260]. Wheelock, David C. and Paul W. Wilson. "Explaining Bank Failures: Deposit Insurance, Regulation, and Efficiency." The Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume 77(4), 1995, pp. 689—700.
[261]. Wheelock, David C. and Paul W. Wilson. "Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. Bank failures and acquisitions." Rev. Econ. Statistics 82, 2000, pp.127-138.
[262]. White, Eugene N. The Regulation and Reform of the American Banking System, 1900-1929. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1983.
[263]. Wicker, Elmus. "A Reconsideration of the Causes of the Banking Panic of 1930." Journal of Economic History 40 (1980), pp.571-583.
[264]. Wicker, Elmus. The Banking Panics of the Great Depression. Cambridge University Press, 1996.
[265]. Williams, Barry. "Domestic and international determinants of bank profits: Foreign banks in Australia." Journal of Banking & Finance 27 (2003), pp.1185-1210.
[266]. Williamson, Stephen D. "Liquidity, Banking, and Bank Failures." International Economic Review, Volume 29(1), 1998, pp. 25—43.
[267]. Winton, Andrew. "Delegated Monitoring and Bank Structure in a Finite Economy." Journal of Financial Intermediation 4:2 (April, 1995), pp. 158-187.
[2].Goldstein,Morris。《新兴经济体银行危机的根源和早期预警指标》,《国际经济评论》,2001年第5—6期。
[3].Wooldridge,J.M. 《计量经济学导论:现代观点》,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2003年版。
[4].《国际金融研究》编辑部:《亚洲金融危机大事记》,《国际金融研究》1999年第7期。
[5].艾伦·加特(美)著,陈雨露等译:《管制、放松与重新管制》,北京:经济科学出版社,1999年版。
[6].安得鲁·盛:《银行业重组—从20世纪80年代银行危机中得到的教训》,北京:中国金融出版社,1999年版。
[7].北京大学中国经济研究中心宏观组:《设计有效的存款保险制度》,《金融研究》,2003年第11期。
[8].陈建梁:《银行业风险评估理论—模型与实证》,广州:广东人民出版社,2002年版。
[9].陈志英:《储贷机构(银行)失败处理的评估与政策选择》,广州:广东人民出版社,2004年版。
[10].邓红霞、崔建华:《存款保险与银行业稳定性分析》,《经济科学》,2003年第4期。
[11].董小君:《金融风险预警机制研究》,北京:经济管理出版社,2004年版。
[12].范晓清、白娜:《中国国有商业银行盈利性实证分析》,《财贸经济》,2003年第10期。
[13].付强、金雪军:《监管评级与问题银行预测》,《技术经济》,2005年第2期。
[14].付强:《单个银行失败的因素分析》,《经济科学》,2005年第1期。
[15].付强:《我国商业银行盈利性实证分析》,《价格理论与实践》,2004年第11期。
[16].葛兆强:《问题银行及其政府救助的理论分析》,《贵州财经学院学报》,2000年第3期。
[17].顾晓敏、朱赟赟:《国有商业银行与股份制银行盈利能力比较》,《上海金融》,2003年第8期。
[18]。郭仌、梁世栋、方兆本:《消费者信用评估分析综述》,《系统工程》,2001年第6期。
[19].哈拉尔德·贝宁克:《一种新的理念—欧洲影子金融管理委员会对有问题银行的处理意见》,《国际金融研究》1999年第3期,原文载英国《银行家》1998年第8期。
[20].韩俊:《银行体系稳定性研究》,北京:中国金融出版社,2000年版。
[21].何建雄:《建立金融安全预警系统:指标框架与运作机制》,《金融研究》,2001年第1期。
[22].胡正衡:《我国商业银行信息披露的改进方向》,《中国金融》,2004年第15期。
[23].胡祖六:《东亚的银行体系与金融危机》,《国际经济评论》,1998年第3期。
[24].黄小军:《美国金融监管机构如何分析银行盈利》,《国际金融研究》,2000年第8期。
[25].金德尔伯格:《经济过热、经济恐慌及经济崩溃—金融危机史》,北京:北京大学出版社,1996年版。
[26].金雪军:《论国际商业银行的网络营销策略》,《国际金融研究》,2000年8期。
[27].金雪军、付明明:《信用运行系统的制度化构建》,《技术经济》,2004年第 9期。
[28].金雪军、付强:《单个银行的失败及其应对研究》,《河北经贸大学学报》,2004年第5期,人大复印资料《金融与保险》2005年第2期。
[29].金雪军、蒋攀峰:《民营银行存款保险制度的博弈论分析》,《财经论丛》,2003年第2期。
[30].金雪军、李红坤:《规制理论演进与商业银行规管》,《济南金融》,2004年第10期。
[31].金雪军、刘春杰:《网络银行的风险管理研究》,《金融电子化》,2000年第11期。
[32].金雪军、徐光:《现代金融市场监管体系变迁及对中国的借鉴》,《商业经济与管理》,2002年第9期。
[33].金雪军、徐光:《发展中国家银行业开放的效应研究》,《投资研究》,2003年第10期。
[34].卡尔—约翰·林德格林等:《金融部门危机与重组—亚洲的经验教训》,北京:中国金融出版社,2000年版。
[35].李文泓:《监管当局处理有问题银行所面临的两难选择》,《世界经济》,2003年第6期。
[36].李晓西:《21世纪中国银行业风险与防范》,广州:广东经济出版社,1999年版。
[37].李宗怡、冀勇鹏:《我国是否应该建立显性存款保险制度》,《国际金融研究》,2003年第7期。
[38].林平、赵永伟:《农村信用社危机预警体系研究》,《金融研究》,2001年第6期。
[39].林平:《银行危机监管论》,北京:中国金融出版社,2002年版。
[40].林毅夫:《亚洲金融危机再回首》,《中国物资流通》,2001年第1期。
[41].刘莉亚、任若恩:《银行危机与货币危机共生性关系的实证研究》,《经济研究》,2003年第10期。
[42].刘卫江:《中国银行体系脆弱性问题的实证研究》,《管理世界》,2002年第 7期。
[43].刘志强:《国外预警金融危机的方法评介》,《世界经济》,2000年第7期。
[44].陆军、魏煜:《我国商业银行的盈利能力与资产负债结构分析》,《金融研究》,1999第11期
[45].默顿·米勒:《美国银行体制的弊端》,《国际金融研究》,1997年第1期。
[46].纽行:《美国银行业公司治理机制对中国国有商业银行重组的启示》,《国际金融研究》,2003年第9期。
[47].潘硕健、周清杰、陈工孟:《最后贷款人政策与银行危机管理》,《当代财经》2002年第8期。
[48].阙方平:《有问题银行处置制度安排研究》,北京:中国金融出版社,2001年版。
[49].苏同华:《银行危机论》,北京:中国金融出版社,2000年版。
[50].王爱民、王惠、王金桃:《国内外银行危机研究述评》,《当代财经》,2003年第1期。
[51].王磊:《香港处置有问题银行之经验》,《西安金融》2003年第8期。
[52].王亚雄、李向明、李超:《我国商业银行盈利能力统计分析》,《江苏统计》,2002年第5期。
[53].新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典,北京:经济科学出版社,2000年版。
[54].徐孟洲、郑人玮:《我国银行危机救助法律制度的缺陷及其改进》,《中央财经大学学报》,2004年第2期。
[55].徐振东:《论在银行公司治理中实现三权有效制衡》,《国际金融研究》,2003年第9期。
[56].闫龙光:《论我国银行业资本充足管制问题》,《金融时报》理论版,2003-09-29。
[57].杨凯生:《银行风险防范和危机化解》,北京:中国金融出版社,2000年版。
[58].叶望春、夏清华:《银行危机对商业银行资产配置的启示》,《世界经济》,2001年第9期。
[59].易纲:《银行不良资产率与地方政府政绩考核》,《财经》,2002年第18期。
[60].张杰:《中国国有银行的资本结构、金融产权交易及其政策含义》载《制度、渐进转轨与中国金融改革》,北京:中国金融出版社,1999年版。
[61].张玲:《财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用》,《预测》,2000年第6期。
[62].张强、付强:《加入WTO后城市商业银行的发展战略探讨》,《云南财贸学院学报》,2001年第4期。
[63].张强、付强:《我国商业银行的信息披露制度建设》,《金融论坛》,2002年第5期;人大复印资料《金融与保险》,2002年第9期。
[64].张强:人民银行总行课题:《我国农村合作金融机构的风险防范与处置》,2000年。
[65].张俏:《国外的银行预警制度》,《现代商业银行》,2003年第6期。
[66].张元萍、孙刚:《金融危机预警系统的理论与实证分析》,《国际金融研究》2003年第10期。
[67].中国银行业监督管理委员会:http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/yaowen/detail.asp?id=219&keyword=关于将次级定期债务计入附属资本的通知,2003、12、9。
[68].中国银行业监督管理委员会:股份制商业银行风险评级体系(暂行),http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/falvfagui/detail.asp?id=90&keyword=,2004、2、24。
[69].中国银行业监督管理委员会:农村合作金融机构风险评价和预警指标体系(试行)银监发[2004]1号。
[70].朱剑锋:《借鉴国际银行经验构建我国银行业风险管理体系》,《国际金融研究》2004年第4期。
[71]. Abrams, B. A. and Huang, C. J. "Predicting Bank Failure: The Role of Structure in Affecting Recent Failure Experiences in the USA." Applied Economics 19 (Spring 1987) pp. 1291-1302.
[72]. Aharony, Joseph and Swary, Yitzhak. "Additional Evidence on the Information-based Contagion Effects of Bank Failures." Journal of Banking & Finance, 20 (1996), pp. 57-69.
[73]. Allen, Franklin and Douglas Gale. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance 53 (1998), pp. 1245-1284.
[74]. Allen, Franklin and Douglas Gale. "Financial Contagion." Journal of Political Economy 108(2000), pp. 1-33.
[75]. Almazan, Andres. "A Model of Competition in Banking: Bank Capital vs. Expertise." Journal of Financial Intermediation 11:1 (2002), pp. 87-121.
[76]. Altunbas, Yener; Lynne Evans and Philip Molyneus. "Bank Ownership and Efficiency." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.33, No.4 (November 2001), pp.926-954.
[77]. Avery, Robert B.; Belton, Terrence M. and Goldberg, Michael A. "Market Discipline in Regulating Bank Risk: New Evidence from the Capital Markets." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.20,No.4 (November 1988).
[78]. Barr, R. S.; L. M. Seiford and T. F. Siems. "An Envelopment-analysis Approach to Measuring the Managerial Efficiency of Banks." Annals of Operations Research 45(1993), pp. 1-19.
[79]. Basel committee on Banking Supervision. Framework for internal control systems in banking organizations, September 1998.
[80]. Basel committee on Banking Supervision. A New Capital Adequacy Framework. Consultative Paper Basel. July 1999.
[81]. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Supervisory Guidance on Dealing with Weak Banks. Report of the Task Force on Dealing with Weak Banks. March 2002.
[82]. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The New Basel Capital Accord. 2003.
[83]. Beck, Thorsten; Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Ross Levine. "Bank Concentration and Crises." NBER Working Paper No. 9921, August, 2003.
[84]. Benston, George J. and Clifford W. Smith, Jr. "A Transactions Cost Approach to the Theory of Financial Intermediation." Journal of Finance 31 (May, 1976), pp.215-231.
[85]. Beston, George J. and Kaufman, George G. "Is Banking and Payment System Fragile." Journal of Financial Services Research, 9 (1995), pp.209-240.
[86]. Beston, George J. and Kaufman, George G. "The Appropriate Role of Bank Regulation." Economic Journal, 106 (436), May, 1996, pp. 688-97.
[87]. Bolton, Patrick, and Xavier Freixas. "Equity, Bonds, and Bank Debt: Capital Structure and Financial Market Equilibrium under Asymmetric Information." Journal of
Political Economy 108:2 (April, 2000), pp. 324-351.
[88]. Bongini, Paola; Stijn Claessens and Giovanni Ferri. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions." The World Bank Working Paper No.2265, January 2000.
[89]. Boot, Amoud and Anjan Thakor. "Can Relationship Banking Survive Competition?" Journal of Finance 55:2(2000), pp 679-713.
[90]. Boyd, J. H. and De Nicolo, G. "Competition and Bank Risk Revisited." University of Minnesota mimeo, 2003.
[91]. Boyd, John H. and David E. Runkle. "Size and Performance of Banking Firms: Testing the Predictions of Theory." Journal of Monetary Economics 31, 1993, pp.47-67.
[92]. Bremer, Marc and Richard H. Pettway. "Information and the Market's Perceptions of Japanese Bank Risk: Regulation, Environment, and Disclosure." Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 10 (2002), pp. 119-139.
[93]. Calomiris, Charles and Joseph R. Mason. "Contagion and Bank Failures During the Great Depression: The June 1932 Chicago Banking Panic." NBER Working Paper, November 1994.
[94]. Calomiris, Charles and Joseph R. Mason. "Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression." National Bureau of Economics, Working Paper no. 7919. 2000.
[95]. Calomiris, Charles and Joseph R. Mason. "Consequences of Bank Distress During the Great Depression." Columbia University, working paper, 2001.
[96]. Caminal, Ramon and Carmen Matutes. "Market Power and Banking Failures." International Journal of Industrial Organization 20(2002), pp. 1341-1361.
[97]. Cebenoyan, A. Sinan; Elizabeth Cooperman and Charles Register. "Ownership Structure, Charter Value, and Risk-Taking Behavior for Thrifts." Financial Management 28 (1999), pp. 43-60.
[98]. Cerasi, Vittoria and Sonja Daltung. "The Optimal Size of a Bank: Costs and Benefits of Diversification." European Economic Review 44:9 (October, 2000), pp.1701-1726.
[99]. Chan, Y.; Greenbaum, S. and Thakor, A. "Is Fairly Priced Deposit Insurance Possible?" Journal of finance 47(1992), pp. 227-245.
[100]. Chui, Michael; Prasanna Gai and Andrew G. Haldane. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: Analytics and Implications for Public Policy." Journal of Banking & Finance 26 (2002), pp. 519-546.
[101]. Cole, Rebel A. and Jeffery W. Gunther. "Separating Likelihood and Timing of Bank Failure." Journal of Banking & Finance 19 (1995), pp. 1073-1089.
[102]. Cole, Rebel A. and Jeffrey W. Gunther. "Predicting Bank Failure: a Comparison of on- and off-site Monitoring Systems." Journal of Financial Services Research 13(1998), pp .103-117.
[103]. Cooper, Russell and Thomas W. Ross. "Bank Runs: Liquidity Costs and Investment Distortion." Journal of Monetary Economics 41 (1998), pp.27-38.
[104]. Corbett, Jenny and Mitchell, Janet. "Banking Crises and Bank Rescues: The Effect of Reputation." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.32, No.3 (August 2000), pp. 474-512.
[105]. Cox, D.R. "Partial likelihood." Biometrika 62, 1975. pp.269-276.
[106]. Cox, D.R. "Regression models and life-tables (with discussion)". J. R. Stat. Soc. 34B, 1972, pp. 187-220.
[107]. Cox, D.R., Oakes, D. Analysis of Survival Data. Chapman and Hall, London and New York, 1984.
[108]. Demirguc-Kunt, A. and Detragiache, E. "Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility." Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics. 1998a, pp.303-331.
[109]. Demirguc-Kunt, A. and Detragiache, E. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries." IMF Staff Papers 45, May 1998b, pp. 81-109.
[110]. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli and Detragiache, Enrica, "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivaariate Logit Approach with an Application to 1996-1997 Banking Crisis." Policy Research Working Paper No.2085, 1999. Washington: World Bank.
[111]. Demirgtlc-Kunt, Asli, and Harry Huizinga. "Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and profitability: Some international evidence." The World Bank Review. May 1999, Vol.13, No.2, pp.379-408.
[112]. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Enrica Detragiache. "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation." Working paper, International Monetary Fund, 2000.
[113]. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Enrica Detragiache, and Poonam Gupta. "Inside the Crisis: An Empirical Analysis of Banking Systems in Distress," World Bank, working paper, 2000.
[114]. Demsetz, Rebecca; Marc Saidenberg and Philip Strahan. "Banks with Something to Lose: The Disciplinary Role of Franchise Value." Economic Policy Review 2(1996), pp. 1-14.
[115]. Demsetz, Rebecca; Marc Saidenberg and Philip Strahan. "Agency Problems and Risk Taking in Banks." Federal Reserve Bank of New York, working paper, 1997.
[116]. De Nicolo, Gianni. "Size, Charter Value and Risk in Banking: An International Perspective," Working paper, International Monetary Fund, 2001.
[117]. Diamond, D. W. and Dybvig, P. H. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity." Political Economy, 91, pp. 401-419, 1983.
[118]. Diamond, Douglas W. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring." Review of Economic Studies 51 (July, 1984), pp.393-414.
[119]. Diamond, Douglas W. "Liquidity, Banks, and Markets." Journal of Political Economy, 1997, Vol. 105,No.5
[120]. Diamond, Douglas W. and Rajan, Raghuram G. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking." Journal of Political Economy, 2001, Vol. 109, No.2
[121]. Dziobek, Claudia and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. "Lessons from Systemic Bank Restructuring: A Survey of 24 Countries," IMF Working Paper, (1997), pp. 97-161.
[122]. Estrella, Arturo; Sangkyun Park and Stavros Peristiani. "Capital Ratios as Predictors of Bank Failure." Economic Policy Review - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, July, 2000, pp.33-52.
[123]. Fama, E.; Fisher L.; Jensen, L. and Roll, R. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information." International Economic Review 10 (February 1969), pp. 1-21.
[124]. FDIC: Mandate for Change: Restructuring the Banking Industry. August 1987, pp.56-57.
[125]. Fisher, Irving M. "The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depression." Econometric 1 (1933),pp.337-357.
[126]. Fisher, Irving M. Booms and Depressions. New York: Adelphi, 1932.
[127]. Flannery, M. J. and Sorescu, S. M. "Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991." J. Finance 51(1996), pp. 1347-1377.
[128]. Flannery, Mark J. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.30, No.3 (August 1998, Part 1).
[129]. Flannery, Mark. "The Faces of Market Discipline." Journal of Financial Services Research 20(2001), pp.107-119.
[130]. Flannery, Mark and Kasturi Rangan. "Market Forces at Work in the Banking Industry: Evidence from the Capital Buildup of the 1990s." University of Florida, working paper, 2001.
[131]. Fohlin, Caroline. "Relationship Banking, Liquidity, and Investment in the German Industrialization." Journal of Finance 53(1998), pp.1737-1758.
[132]. Fohlin, Caroline. "Universal Banking in Pre-World War I Germany: Model or Myth?" Explorations in Economic History 36(1999), pp.305-343.
[133]. Freixas, Xavier and Jean Charles Rochet. Microeconomics of Banking. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. 1997.
[134]. Gajewsky, G. R. "Modeling Bank closures in the 1980's: the roles of regulatory behaviour, farm lending and the local economy," in G. Kaufman, ed., Research in Financial Services: private and public policy, Green, Conn., JAI Press Inc. 1990.
[135]. Ganesan, P. "Determinants of profits and profitability of public sector banks in India: A Profit function approach." Journal of Financial Management & Analysis. 14(1):2001,pp.27-37.
[136]. Garcia, Gillian. "Deposit Insurance: A Survey of Actual and Best Practices." IMF Working Paper, No. 96/83, 1999.
[137]. Gehrig, Thomas. "Screening Cross-Border Banking and the Allocation of Credit." Research in Economics 52:4 (December, 1998), pp.387-407.
[138]. Gehrig, Thomas and Rune Stenbacka. "Information Sharing in Banking: A Collusive Device?" CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2911, 2001.
[139]. Gennotte, Gerard and David Pyle. "Capital Controls and Bank Risk." Journal of Banking and Finance 15(1991), pp.805-824.
[140]. Gilbert, Meyer and Vaughan. "Could a CAMELS Downgrade Model Improve
Off-site Surveillance?" Review federal Bank of St. Louis, January/February 2002, pp.47-63.
[141]. Gilbert, Meyer and Vaughan. "The Role of Supervisory Screens and Econometric Models in Off-site Surveillance." Review federal Bank of St. Louis, November/December 1999, pp.31-56.
[142]. Goldsmith, R. W. Comment On Hyman P. Minsky, The Financial Instability Hypothesis. In Financial Crises, Theory, History and Policy, ed. C. P. Kinderlberger and J. P. laffargue, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.
[143]. Gonzalez-Hermosllo, Brenda. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes." IMF Working Paper (1999), pp.99-33.
[144]. Goodfriend, Marvin and Robert G King. "Financial Deregulation, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking." In: William Harf and Rose kushmeider, eds., Restructuring the Financial System. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 1988, pp.216-253.
[145]. Goodhart, C. A. E. and D. Schonmaker. Institutional Separation Between Supervisory and Monetary Agencies, in Goodhart, The Central Bank and the Financial System, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1995.
[146]. Gorton, Gary and Donald Mullineaux. "The Joint Production of Confidence: Endogenous Regulation and the 19th Century Commercial Bank Clearinghouse," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 19(4), 1987, pp.458-468.
[147]. Gorton, Gary. "Clearinghouses and the Origin of Central Banking in the U.S.." Journal of Economic History 45(2), 1985, pp.277-283.
[148]. Graham, F. C. and Horner, J. E. "Bank Failure: An Evalution of the Factors Contributing to the Failure of National Banks." in The Financial Services Industry in the Year 2000: Risk and Efficiency. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (May 1988) pp. 405-435.
[149]. Green, Edward and Ping Lin. "Diamond and Dybvig's Classic Theory of Financial Intermediation: What's Missing?" Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 24(2000), pp.3-13.
[150]. Grossman, Richard. "The Shoe That Didn't Drop: Explaining Banking Stability During the Great Depression," Journal of Economic History 54, 1994, pp.
654-682.
[151]. Gupta, Atul and Lalatendu Misra.. "Failure and Failure Resolution in the U.A. Thrift and Banking Industries." Financial Management 28(1999), pp.87-105.
[152]. Hanweck, G. "Predicting Bank Failure." In Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics. Financial Studies Section, Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System: Washington, DC. (1977).
[153]. Hart, Oliver, and John Moore. "Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt." Quarterly Journal of Economics 113:1 (February, 1998), pp. 1-41.
[154]. Hawkins, J. and P. Turner. "Bank Restructuring in Practice: An Overview." BIS Policy Papers No 6, Bank for International Settlements, Basel Switzerland, 1999.
[155]. Heffernan, Shelagh. Modern Banking in Theory and Practice. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 1996.
[156]. Hellman, Thomas; Kevin Murdock and Joseph E. Stiglitz. "Liberalization, moral hazard in banking and prudential regulation: Are capital controls enough?" American Economic Review 90(1), 2000, pp 147-165.
[157]. Holmstrom, Bengt and Jean Tirole. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity." Journal of Political Economy 106(1998), pp. 1-40.
[158]. Honohan, Patric. "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Economies: Diagnosis and Prediction." BIS Working Paper No.39. 1997.
[159]. Houston, Joel and Christopher James. "CEO Compensation and Bank Risk: Is Compensation in Banking Structured to Promote Risk Taking?" Journal of Monetary Economics 36(1995), pp.405-431.
[160]. Houston, Joel, and Christopher James. "Bank Information Monopolies and the Mix of Private and Public Debt Claims." Journal of Finance 51:5 (December, 1996), pp.1863-1889.
[161]. IMF. World Economic Outlook. May 1998.
[162]. Jacklin, Charles J. and Sudipto Bhattacharya. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications." Journal of Political Economy, 1988, Vol, 96. No. 3
[163]. James, Christopher. "Bank Debt Restructurings and the Composition of Exchange Offers in Financial Distress." Journal of Finance 51(1996), pp.711-727.
[164]. Jean-Baptiste, Eslyn. "Demand Deposits as an Incentive Mechanism." Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, mimeo, 1999.
[165]. Jenson, M. C. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems." Journal of Finance 48(3) 1993, pp. 831-880.
[166]. John, K.; John, T. A. and Senbet, L. W. "Risk-shifting Incentives of Depository Institutions: A New Perspective on Federal Deposit Insurance Reform." Journal of Banking and Finance 15 1991, pp. 895-915.
[167]. Kanatas, George, and Jianping Qi. "Imperfect Competition, Agency, and Financing Decisions." Journal of Business 74:2 (April, 2001), pp.307-338.
[168]. Kane, Edward and Berry Wilson. "A Contracting Theory Interpretation of the Origins of Federal Deposit Insurance." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 30(1998), pp.573-595.
[169]. Kareken, John H. and Neil Wallace. "Deposit Insurance and Bank Regulation: A Partial-Equilibrium Exposition." Journal of Business (July 1978), pp.413-438.
[170]. Kaufman, George. "Bank Contagion: A Review of the Theory and Evidence." Journal of Financial Services Research 8, 1994, pp. 123-150.
[171]. Kaufman, George. " Lender of Last Render: A Contemporary Perspective." Journal of Financial Services Research 5, 1991, pp.95-110.
[172]. Kindleberger, Charles P. Manias, Panics, and Crashes. New York: Basic Books. 1978.
[173]. Kolari, James; Glennon, Dennis; Shin, Hwan and Caputo, Michele. "Predicting Large US Commercial Bank Failures." Journal of Economics and Business 54 (2002), pp. 361-387.
[174]. Korobow, L.; Stuhr, D. P. and Martin, D. "A Probalistic Appproach to Early Warning of Changes in Bank Financial Condition." Federal Bank of New York, Monthly Review 58 (July 1976), pp. 187-194.
[175]. Krugman, P., Bubble, Boom, Crash: Theoretical Notes on Asia's Crisis. Mimeo, 1998.
[176]. Krysanowski, Lawrence and Gordon S. Roberts. "Perspectives on Canadian Banking Insolvency During the 1930s." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31(1999), pp.130-136.
[177]. Laeven, Luc. "Risk and efficiency in East Asian Bank." Working Bank Working Paper No.2255 December, 1999.
[178]. Lane, William R.; Stephen W. Loony and James W. Wansley. "An Application of the COX Proportional Hazards Model to Bank Failure." Journal of Banking and Finance, 1986.
[179]. Levine, Ross. "Bank-based or Market-based Financial Systems: Which is Better?" University of Minnesota, mimeo, 2000.
[180]. Litain, R. E. What Should Banks Do? The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. 1987, pp.86.
[181]. Litner, John. "The Valuation of Risky Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets." Review of Economics and Statistics 50 (1986).
[182]. Mailath, George and Loretta Mester. "A Positive Analysis of Bank Closure." Journal of Financial Intermediation 3(1994), pp.272-299.
[184]. Manove, Michael; Jorge Padilla and Marco Pagano. "Collateral versus Project Screening: A Model of Lazy Banks." RAND Journal of Economics 32:4 (Winter, 2001), pp.726-744.
[185]. Martin, D. "Early Warning of Bank Failure: A Logit Regression Approach." Journal of Banking and Finance 1 (November 1977), pp. 249-276.
[186]. Matutes, C. and Vives, X. "Competition for Deposits, Fragility, and Insurance." Journal of Financial Intermediation 5(1996), pp. 184-216.
[187]. Matutes, C. and Vives, X. "Imperfect Competition, Risk Taking, and Regulation in Banking." European Economic Review 44(2000), pp. 1-34.
[188]. McKenzie, Joseph; Rebel Cole and Richard Brown. "Moral Hazard, Portfolio Allocation, and Asset Returns for Thrift Institutions." Journal of Financial Services Research 5(1992), pp.315-339.
[189]. Meltzer, Allan H. "Financial failures and financial Policies." In: George G. Kaufman and Roger C. Kormendi, eds., Deregulating Financial Services: Public Policy in Flux. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company. 1986, pp.79-96.
[190]. Merton, Robert C. "An Analytic Derivation of the Cost of Deposit Insurance and Loan Guarantees." Journal of Banking and Finance (June 1977), pp.3-11.
[191]. Meyer, Paul A. and Howard W. Pifer. "Prediction of Bank Failure." The Journal of Finance, Volume 25(4), 1970. pp. 853-868.
[192]. Minsky, Hyman P. "A Theory of Systematic Financial Fragility." In: Edward J. Altman and Arnold W. Sametz, eds., Financial Crises: Institutions and Markets in a Fragile Environment. New York: Wiley. 1977, pp. 138-152.
[193]. Minsky, Hyman P. "Financial Instability Revisited: The Economics Disaster." Reappraisal of The Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism, 3(June 1972), pp.95-136.
[194]. Minsky, Hyman P. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Clarification." In: Martin Feldstein, ed., The Risk of Economic Crisis. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. 1991, pp. 158-170.
[195]. Miron, Jeffery A. "Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and the Founding of the Fed." American Economic Review 76(1986), pp.125-140.
[196]. Mishkin, Frederic S. "Financial Consolidation: Dangers and Opportunities." Journal of Banking and Finance 23, 1999, pp.675-691.
[197]. Moen, Jon and Ellis Tallman. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907." Journal of Economic History 60(2000), pp.145-163.
[198]. Molina, Carlos A. "Predicting Bank Failures Using a Hazard Model: the Venezuelan Banking Crisis." Emerging Markets Review 3 (2002), pp. 31-50.
[199]. Mount, C. C. "The Marginal Impact of Cash Flow Information on Bank Failure Prediction: An Empirical Investigation." A PH.D Dissertation, Kent State University, September 1992.
[200]. Nakaso, Hiroshi. "The Financial Crisis in Japan During the 1990s: How the Bank of Japan Responded and the Lessons Learnt." BIS Papers, No 6. Monetary and Economic Department, October 2001.
[201]. O'Hara, Maureen and Wayne Shaw. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being 'Too Big To Fail'." Journal of Finance 45(1990), pp.1587-1600.
[202]. Park, Sangkyun. "Bank Failure Contagion in Historical Perspective." Journal of Monetary Economics 28(1991), pp.271-286.
[203]. Peek, Joe and Eric Rosengren. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27 (1995), pp.625-638.
[204]. Peek, Joe and Eric Rosengren. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan." American Economic Review 87(4), 1997, pp.495-505.
[205]. Peek, Joe and Eric Rosengren. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Economic Activity in the United States." American Economic Review 87(4), 2000, pp. 30-45.
[206]. Postlewaite, Andrew and Xavier Vives. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon." Journal of Political Economy 95(1987), pp.485-491.
[207]. Rochet, Jean-Charles and Jean Tirole. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 28(1996), pp.733-62.
[208]. Rolnick, Arthur and Warren Weber. "The Causes of Free Bank Failures: A Detailed Examination." Journal of Monetary Economics 14 (1984), pp.267-292.
[209]. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Bank Failure: An Evaluation of the Factors Contributing to the Failure of National Banks. Washington, DC: OCC 1988.
[210]. Park, Sangkyun. "Bank Failure Contagion in historical Perspective." Journal of Monetary Economics, 28 (1991), pp. 271-286.
[211]. Pettway, R. H. "Potential Insolvency, Market Efficiency and Bank Regulation of Larger Commercial Banks." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 15 (March 1980) pp. 219-236.
[212]. Pettway, R. H. and Sinkey, J. F. "Establishing On-site Bank Examination Priorities: An Early Warning System Using Accounting and Market Information." Journal of Finance 35 (March 1980) pp. 137-150.
[213]. Radelet, S. and Sachs, J. "The onset of the east Asian financial crisis." Harvard Institute for International Development, Mimeo. 1998.
[214]. Radelet, Steven and Sachs, J. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Macroeconomic 1, 1998, pp. 1-90.
[215]. Rojas-Suarez, Liliana. "Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crisis: What Works for Developing Country?" Unpublished Manuscript, February 1998.
[216]. Saunders, Anthony and Berry Wilson. "Contagious Bank Runs: Evidence from the 1929-1933 Period." Journal of Financial Intermediation 5(1996), pp.409-423.
[217]. Saunders, Anthony and Berry Wilson. "The Impact of Consolidation and
Safety-net Support on Canadian, US, and UK Banks: 1893-1992." Journal of Banking and Finance 23(1999), pp.537-571.
[218]. Saunders, Anthony and Berry Wilson. "An Analysis of Bank Charter Value and Its Risk-Constraining Incentives." Journal of Financial Services Research 19(2001), pp.185-195.
[219]. Schwartz, Anna. "Financial Stability and the Federal Safety Net." In: Rose Marie Kushmeider and William S. Haraf, eds., Restructuring Banking and Financial Services in America. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute. 1988, pp.34-62.
[220]. Schwartz, Anna. "Real and Pseudo-financial Crises." In: Forrest Capie and Geoffery E. Wood, eds., Financial Crises and the World Banking System. London: Macmillan, 1986, pp. 11-31.
[221]. Schwartz, Anna. "The Misuse of the Fed's Discount Window." Review (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) 74, September/October 1992, pp.59-69.
[222]. Secrist, H. National Bank Failures and Non-Failures: An Autopsy and Diagnosis. Principia Press, Bloomington, IN. 1938.
[223]. Sharp, William F. "A Simplified Model for Portolio Analysis." Management Science 9 (January 1963) pp. 277-293.
[224]. Sharp, William F. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk." Journal of Finance 19 (September 1964) pp. 425-552.
[225]. Sharpe, S. "Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships." Journal of Finance 45(1990), pp.1069-1087.
[226]. Sharpe, Steven. "Bank Capitalization, Regulation, and the Credit Crunch: A Critical Review of the Research Findings." Finance and Economics Discussion Series Paper No. 95/20(1995), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
[227]. Sheng. A. Bank Restructuring: Lessens from the 1980s. World Bank, Washington D. C. 1996.
[228]. Shick, R. A. and Sherman, L. F. "Bank Stock Prices as an Early Warning System for Changes in Condition." Journal of Bank Research 11 (Autumn 1980) pp. 136-146.
[229]. Simpson, W. G. "Capital Market Prediction of Large Commercial Bank Failures: An Alternative Analysis." Financial Review 18 (1983), pp. 33-55.
[230]. Simpson, W. Gary and Anne E. Gleason. "Board Structure, Ownership, and Financial Distress in Banking Firms." International Review of Economics and Finance 8(1999), pp. 281-292.
[231]. Sinkey, J. F. "Identifying Problem Banks. How do the Banking Authorities Measure a Bank's risk Exposure?" Journal of Money and Banking 10 (May 1978) pp. 184-193.
[232]. Sinkey, J. F. and Walker, D. "Problem Banks: Identification and Characteristics." Journal of Bank Research 5 (Winter 1975), pp.208-217.
[233]. Smith, Bruce. "Private Information, Deposit Insurance Rules and the Stability of the Banking System." Journal of Monetary Economics 14(1984), pp.293-317.
[234]. Smith, Bruce. "Bank Panics, Suspensions and Geography: Some Notes on the 'Contagion of Fear' in Banking." Economic Inquiry 24(1991), pp.230-248.
[235]. Staff report. A Analysis of Federal Reserve Discount Window Loans to Failed Institutions. Washington, DC: U.S. House of Representations, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs. 1991.
[236]. Stein, Jeremy. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy." RAND Journal of Economics 29:3 (Autumn, 1998), pp.466-486.
[237]. Stiglitz, J. "Sound finance and sustainable development in Asia: Keynote address to the Asia development forum." Mimeo, 1998. Available at: http://www.worldb-ank.org/html/extdre/ speech, html.
[238]. Stiglitz, J. and A. Weiss. "Credie Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information." American Economic Review 71, 1981, pp.393-410.
[239]. Stomper, Alex. "A Theory of Banks' Industry Expertise, Market Power, and Credit Risk." Working paper, University of Vienna, 2001.
[240]. Sundararajan, V. and T. Balino. "Issues in Recent Banking Crises." Banking Crises: Case and Issues, IMF, 1992.
[241]. Sunderarajan, V.; Charles A. Enoch; San Jose Armida; Paul L. Hilbers and Russell C. Krueger. "Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices." IMF Occasional Paper No.212, April 2002.
[242]. Thakor, A. V. and P. Wilson. "Capital requirements, Loan Renegotiation and
the Borrower's Choice of Financing Source." Journal of Banking and Finance 19(1995), pp.693-712.
[243]. Thakor, A. V. and R. Callaway. "Costly Information Production Equilibria in the Bank Credit Market with Applications to Credit Rationing." Journal of Finacial Quantitative Analysis 18(June, 1983),pp.229-248.
[244]. Thies, Clifford and Daniel Gerlowski. "Bank Capital and Bank Failure, 1921-1932: Testing the White Hypothesis." Journal of Economic History 53(1993), pp.908-914.
[245]. Thomoson, J. "Modeling the bank regulator's closure option: a two-step logit regression approach." Journal of financial Services Research 6, 1992, pp.5-23.
[246]. Thomoson, J. "Predicting Bank failures in 1980s." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Review, First Quarter 1991, pp. 1-20.
[247]. Thomson, James B. "An Analysis of Bank Failures: 1984-1989." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper 8916, December 1989.
[248]. Tsuji, Kenji. "Bank Capital Regulation, Diversification Loss and the Probability of Bank Failure." Japan and the World Economy 11(1999), pp. 485-495.
[249]. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline and Beatrice Weder. "Sources of Contagion: Finance or Trade?" International Monetary Fund Working Paper 99/146, 1999.
[250]. Vasiliou, Dimitrios. "Linking profits to Greek bank production management." International Journal of Production Economics, 43(1996). pp.67-73.
[251]. Von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig. "Intermediated versus Direct Investment: Optimal Liquidity Provision and Dynamic Incentive Compatibility." Journal of Financial Intermediation 7:2 (1998), pp. 177-197.
[252]. Wagster, John. "The Basle Accord of 1988 and the International Credit Crunch of 1989-1992." Journal of Financial Services Research 15(1999), pp.123-143.
[253]. Waldo, Douglas G. "Bank Runs, the Deposit-Currency Ratio and the Interest Rate." Journal of Monetary Economics 15(1985), pp.269-277.
[254]. Wall, Larry D. and David R. Peterson. "The Effect of Continental Illinois' Failure on the Financial Performance of Other Banks." Journal of Monetary Economics 26(1990), pp.77-99.
[255]. Wallison, Peter. Back from the Brink: A Practical Plan for Privatizing Deposit
Insurance and Strengthening Our Banks and Thrifts. American Enterprise Institute, 1990.
[256]. Weiss, Andrew. "Imperfect Information, Credit Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," in Financial Markets and Incomplete Information, edited by Sudipto Bhattacharya and George Constantinides (Rowman and Littlefield; Maryland), 1989, pp.304-316.
[257]. West, R. C. "A Factor Analytic Approach to Bank Condition." Journal of Banking and Finance 9 (June 1985), pp. 253-273.
[258]. Whalen, G "A proportional hazard model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool." Econ. Rev. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) 27, 1991,pp.21-31.
[259]. Wheelock, David C. and Paul W. Wilson. "Can Deposit Insurance Increase the Risk of Bank failure? Some Historical Evidence." Review-Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May/Jun 1994 76(3), pp.57-71.
[260]. Wheelock, David C. and Paul W. Wilson. "Explaining Bank Failures: Deposit Insurance, Regulation, and Efficiency." The Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume 77(4), 1995, pp. 689—700.
[261]. Wheelock, David C. and Paul W. Wilson. "Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. Bank failures and acquisitions." Rev. Econ. Statistics 82, 2000, pp.127-138.
[262]. White, Eugene N. The Regulation and Reform of the American Banking System, 1900-1929. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1983.
[263]. Wicker, Elmus. "A Reconsideration of the Causes of the Banking Panic of 1930." Journal of Economic History 40 (1980), pp.571-583.
[264]. Wicker, Elmus. The Banking Panics of the Great Depression. Cambridge University Press, 1996.
[265]. Williams, Barry. "Domestic and international determinants of bank profits: Foreign banks in Australia." Journal of Banking & Finance 27 (2003), pp.1185-1210.
[266]. Williamson, Stephen D. "Liquidity, Banking, and Bank Failures." International Economic Review, Volume 29(1), 1998, pp. 25—43.
[267]. Winton, Andrew. "Delegated Monitoring and Bank Structure in a Finite Economy." Journal of Financial Intermediation 4:2 (April, 1995), pp. 158-187.