财务估价论
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摘要
本文研究的是以估价持续经营状态下企业价值为直接目标的财务估价理论与财务估价方
法。
随着经济金融化的不断深入，如何更科学地评价企业效率成为一个极为重要、也极为复杂
的经济学课题。以往对企业效率的评价方法一般很少考虑企业经营过程中所客观存在的风险因
素，但这恰恰是在新的经济环境下企业效率评价中不容忽视的问题。科学合理的企业效率评价
应当很好地辨识企业的风险程度，应当有助于企业的长远发展。财务估价具备这些优势。对于
一个持续经营状态下的企业而言，运用财务估价技术所确定的企业价值越大，表明经营效率越
高，企业经营活动为投资者、为整个社会所做的贡献也越大。与其他评价方法不同，企业价值
是一个前瞻性的概念，它所反映的是企业在未来时期经营活动效率的高低。理财人员进行财务
估价，从本质上讲，是对未来现金流量及其风险程度的一种规划，是对管理实力的一种判断。
财务估价的重要方法有折现现金流量估价法、相关估价法以及或有索偿权估价法（即期权
估价法。不同的估价方法适用于不同的估价情况，同时，所需要的信息也各不相同。其中，最
基本的、最有助于优化企业理财行为的估价方法是折现现金流量估价法。折现现金流量估价模
型是现代理财学中的一种基本观念和基本方法。按照折现现金流量估价法，企业价值最大化目
标的实现依赖于：未来时期经营活动现金流量最大化；在获取同样收益水平情况下承担的风险
最低；具备可持续发展的巨大潜力。管理人员进行财务估价，应当运用折现现金流量估价法，
但外部投资者了解企业价值以及作为投资决策、信贷决策的依据，可以运用较简单的方法进行
企业价值估价，最常用的就是相关估价法。比如以市盈率估算企业价值。期权估价法的应用可
以对企业潜在的、具有选择性质的战略价值进行分析。财务估价方法的设计与运用依赖于财务
估价理论的发展。因此，随着财务估价理论的不断进步，估价技术也必将取得重大进展。
现金流量，具体讲是企业未来时期经营活动所创造的现金流量，是决定企业价值的根本因
素。不断地增加现金流量是追求企业价值最大化的基本途径。对企业现金流量进行分析应从两
个方面来进行：一是现金流量的流向分析，二是现金流量的变动特征分析。现金流量的流向分
析就是具体分析在全部现金流量中，哪些是属于股东的现金流量，哪些是属于债权人的现金流
量，哪些是属于企业的现金流量。在流向分析中，自由现金流量是一个极其重要的概念。企业
自由现金流量越多，投资者财富增加的空间就越大。现金流量的变动特征分析就是对企业未来
时期现金流量的具体波动情况进行分析，判断现金流量是保持固定水平不变，还是按固定比率
增长，或者是超常增长，以及不同增长期间的延续时间。了解现金流量的变动特征，对于合理
地运用折现现金流量模型估算企业价值具有重大的意义。比如，如果现金流量是按固定比率增
长，可用戈登模型估算企业价值，无疑将大大地节省财务估价成本。现金流量的预测质量将从
根本上决定财务估价的质量。
确定合理水平的折现率是运用折现现金流量模型时另一项极其重要的工作。折现率的内涵
极为丰富，从具体的投资者角度看，折现率是其要求报酬率；从整个企业的角度讲，折现率是
企业资本成本即加权平均资本成本。从理论上讲，折现率的确定是个令许多学者头疼的难题。
简单而论，折现率的确定取决于人们在风险与收益之间进行的权衡。无论是投资者进行投资，
还是理财人员组织理财行为，总是试图获取高收益，同时承担低风险。这就是所谓的“风险厌
恶”。马科威茨的组合理论以及夏普的资本资产定价模型为风险/收益的相关性分析提供了理论与
方法支持。从财务估价的角度讲，由于确定的是整个企业的价值，因此，折现率应当反映未来
时期现金流量中所隐含的风险。现金流量波动幅度越大，表明风险越大，折现率也就越高。管
理人员在确定折现率时，必须审慎地分析企业以往现金流量的风险及其折现率水平，分析企业
所在行业平均的折现率水平，分析企业未来抵御风险的能力和措施。必须清楚的是，折现率的
高低取决于企业的资本预算决策及其由此所决定的现金流量的风险，而不是企业的融资行为。
财务估价论
投资者的要求报酬率与企业的经营风险和财务风险成正相关关系。截止到目前，折现率的确定
仍是一个有待于进一步探讨的理财学课题。
企业价值最大化作为企业的理财目标函数，标志着理财学发展到了一个新的高度。了解企
业价值及其生成过程，追求企业价值最大化，正是进行财务估价的主要目标之一。按照财务估
价理论，企业价值取决于企业末来时期现金流量及其风险程度，这代表了企业价值的本质内容。
对于理财人员而言，应当很好地理解企业价值不同的表现形式，比如企业价值等于股票市场价
值与债券市场价值之和，也可以等于原有
The research on financial valuation is an important problem in corporate management and
investment.In modem textbooks about corporate finance,investment and accounting,the
term of valuation is frequently used,the valuation of firm value and other asset value also
become a very important approach to manage enterprises.
Every asset,financial as well as real,has value.The key to successfully investing in and
managing these assets lies in understanding not only what the value is,but the sources of
the value.Any asset can be valued,but some assets are easier to value than others,and the
details of valuation will vary from case to case.Thus the valuation of a real estate property
will require different information and follow a different format from the valuation of a
publicly Waded stock.In general,the valuation of firm value is very complex.
This thesis aims to research the fundamental financial valuation theory.The objective of
financial valuation is to measuring the value of going-concern enterprise.The value of a
firm is the present value of its expected cash flows,discounted back at a rate that reflects
both the riskness of the project and the financing mix used to finance it.Much of the theory
and most of the models developed in corporate finance are based on this premise of
maximizing firm value.
The thesis consists of 9 chapters.The main problems and viewpoints of every
chapters are discussed as follow:
Chapter 1, nterprise Performance and Financial Valuation? is a starting point to the
research of financial valuation in which backgrounds on business environment such as
firinsperation performance.Then,discussed the principle of financial valuation.Ln today抯
fast-changing business environment,flnancial management requires using valuation to
achieve the optimal match between a firm's profitability and liquidity.Management抯
success in this mission is best measured by the value created for shareholders.
Chapter 2, pproaches to Financial Valuation?,chiefly addresses the methods of
financial valuation.In general terms,there are three approaches to valuation.The
first,discounted cash flow valuation,relates the value of an asset to the present value of
expected future cash flows on that assets.The second,relative valuation,estimates the value
of an asset by looking at the pricing of omparable?assets relative to a common variable
like earnings,cash flows,book value,or sales.The third,contingent claim valuation,uses
option pricing models to measure the value of assets that share option characristics.There
can be significant differences in outcome,depending upon which approach is used.In
addition,the author appraised the relationship between financial valuation and accounting
information.
Chapter 3, he Discounted Cash Flow Model----Analysis of Cash Flow?,mainly
discusses the DCFM,the basic approach of financial valuation.Much of the tedium in
valuation is a direct result of having to estimate cashflow.There can be no discounted
cashflow valuation without this,though.This chapter examines the process of estimating
cashflows and establishes some general principles that should be adhered to in all
va]uation.The one overriding principle governing cashflow estimation is to match
cashflows to discount rates equity cashflows to cost of equity,firm cashflow to cost of
capital ,pretax cashflows to pretax rates,posttax cashiflows to poattax rates,nominal
casliflows to nominal rates,and real cashflows to real rates.
Chapter 4,?The Discounted Cash Flow Model----Estlination of Discount
法。
随着经济金融化的不断深入，如何更科学地评价企业效率成为一个极为重要、也极为复杂
的经济学课题。以往对企业效率的评价方法一般很少考虑企业经营过程中所客观存在的风险因
素，但这恰恰是在新的经济环境下企业效率评价中不容忽视的问题。科学合理的企业效率评价
应当很好地辨识企业的风险程度，应当有助于企业的长远发展。财务估价具备这些优势。对于
一个持续经营状态下的企业而言，运用财务估价技术所确定的企业价值越大，表明经营效率越
高，企业经营活动为投资者、为整个社会所做的贡献也越大。与其他评价方法不同，企业价值
是一个前瞻性的概念，它所反映的是企业在未来时期经营活动效率的高低。理财人员进行财务
估价，从本质上讲，是对未来现金流量及其风险程度的一种规划，是对管理实力的一种判断。
财务估价的重要方法有折现现金流量估价法、相关估价法以及或有索偿权估价法（即期权
估价法。不同的估价方法适用于不同的估价情况，同时，所需要的信息也各不相同。其中，最
基本的、最有助于优化企业理财行为的估价方法是折现现金流量估价法。折现现金流量估价模
型是现代理财学中的一种基本观念和基本方法。按照折现现金流量估价法，企业价值最大化目
标的实现依赖于：未来时期经营活动现金流量最大化；在获取同样收益水平情况下承担的风险
最低；具备可持续发展的巨大潜力。管理人员进行财务估价，应当运用折现现金流量估价法，
但外部投资者了解企业价值以及作为投资决策、信贷决策的依据，可以运用较简单的方法进行
企业价值估价，最常用的就是相关估价法。比如以市盈率估算企业价值。期权估价法的应用可
以对企业潜在的、具有选择性质的战略价值进行分析。财务估价方法的设计与运用依赖于财务
估价理论的发展。因此，随着财务估价理论的不断进步，估价技术也必将取得重大进展。
现金流量，具体讲是企业未来时期经营活动所创造的现金流量，是决定企业价值的根本因
素。不断地增加现金流量是追求企业价值最大化的基本途径。对企业现金流量进行分析应从两
个方面来进行：一是现金流量的流向分析，二是现金流量的变动特征分析。现金流量的流向分
析就是具体分析在全部现金流量中，哪些是属于股东的现金流量，哪些是属于债权人的现金流
量，哪些是属于企业的现金流量。在流向分析中，自由现金流量是一个极其重要的概念。企业
自由现金流量越多，投资者财富增加的空间就越大。现金流量的变动特征分析就是对企业未来
时期现金流量的具体波动情况进行分析，判断现金流量是保持固定水平不变，还是按固定比率
增长，或者是超常增长，以及不同增长期间的延续时间。了解现金流量的变动特征，对于合理
地运用折现现金流量模型估算企业价值具有重大的意义。比如，如果现金流量是按固定比率增
长，可用戈登模型估算企业价值，无疑将大大地节省财务估价成本。现金流量的预测质量将从
根本上决定财务估价的质量。
确定合理水平的折现率是运用折现现金流量模型时另一项极其重要的工作。折现率的内涵
极为丰富，从具体的投资者角度看，折现率是其要求报酬率；从整个企业的角度讲，折现率是
企业资本成本即加权平均资本成本。从理论上讲，折现率的确定是个令许多学者头疼的难题。
简单而论，折现率的确定取决于人们在风险与收益之间进行的权衡。无论是投资者进行投资，
还是理财人员组织理财行为，总是试图获取高收益，同时承担低风险。这就是所谓的“风险厌
恶”。马科威茨的组合理论以及夏普的资本资产定价模型为风险/收益的相关性分析提供了理论与
方法支持。从财务估价的角度讲，由于确定的是整个企业的价值，因此，折现率应当反映未来
时期现金流量中所隐含的风险。现金流量波动幅度越大，表明风险越大，折现率也就越高。管
理人员在确定折现率时，必须审慎地分析企业以往现金流量的风险及其折现率水平，分析企业
所在行业平均的折现率水平，分析企业未来抵御风险的能力和措施。必须清楚的是，折现率的
高低取决于企业的资本预算决策及其由此所决定的现金流量的风险，而不是企业的融资行为。
财务估价论
投资者的要求报酬率与企业的经营风险和财务风险成正相关关系。截止到目前，折现率的确定
仍是一个有待于进一步探讨的理财学课题。
企业价值最大化作为企业的理财目标函数，标志着理财学发展到了一个新的高度。了解企
业价值及其生成过程，追求企业价值最大化，正是进行财务估价的主要目标之一。按照财务估
价理论，企业价值取决于企业末来时期现金流量及其风险程度，这代表了企业价值的本质内容。
对于理财人员而言，应当很好地理解企业价值不同的表现形式，比如企业价值等于股票市场价
值与债券市场价值之和，也可以等于原有
The research on financial valuation is an important problem in corporate management and
investment.In modem textbooks about corporate finance,investment and accounting,the
term of valuation is frequently used,the valuation of firm value and other asset value also
become a very important approach to manage enterprises.
Every asset,financial as well as real,has value.The key to successfully investing in and
managing these assets lies in understanding not only what the value is,but the sources of
the value.Any asset can be valued,but some assets are easier to value than others,and the
details of valuation will vary from case to case.Thus the valuation of a real estate property
will require different information and follow a different format from the valuation of a
publicly Waded stock.In general,the valuation of firm value is very complex.
This thesis aims to research the fundamental financial valuation theory.The objective of
financial valuation is to measuring the value of going-concern enterprise.The value of a
firm is the present value of its expected cash flows,discounted back at a rate that reflects
both the riskness of the project and the financing mix used to finance it.Much of the theory
and most of the models developed in corporate finance are based on this premise of
maximizing firm value.
The thesis consists of 9 chapters.The main problems and viewpoints of every
chapters are discussed as follow:
Chapter 1, nterprise Performance and Financial Valuation? is a starting point to the
research of financial valuation in which backgrounds on business environment such as
firinsperation performance.Then,discussed the principle of financial valuation.Ln today抯
fast-changing business environment,flnancial management requires using valuation to
achieve the optimal match between a firm's profitability and liquidity.Management抯
success in this mission is best measured by the value created for shareholders.
Chapter 2, pproaches to Financial Valuation?,chiefly addresses the methods of
financial valuation.In general terms,there are three approaches to valuation.The
first,discounted cash flow valuation,relates the value of an asset to the present value of
expected future cash flows on that assets.The second,relative valuation,estimates the value
of an asset by looking at the pricing of omparable?assets relative to a common variable
like earnings,cash flows,book value,or sales.The third,contingent claim valuation,uses
option pricing models to measure the value of assets that share option characristics.There
can be significant differences in outcome,depending upon which approach is used.In
addition,the author appraised the relationship between financial valuation and accounting
information.
Chapter 3, he Discounted Cash Flow Model----Analysis of Cash Flow?,mainly
discusses the DCFM,the basic approach of financial valuation.Much of the tedium in
valuation is a direct result of having to estimate cashflow.There can be no discounted
cashflow valuation without this,though.This chapter examines the process of estimating
cashflows and establishes some general principles that should be adhered to in all
va]uation.The one overriding principle governing cashflow estimation is to match
cashflows to discount rates equity cashflows to cost of equity,firm cashflow to cost of
capital ,pretax cashflows to pretax rates,posttax cashiflows to poattax rates,nominal
casliflows to nominal rates,and real cashflows to real rates.
Chapter 4,?The Discounted Cash Flow Model----Estlination of Discount
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