自助服务扩散研究
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摘要
现代互联网技术的快速发展,改变了传统服务的很多特性；电子银行、网络订票、自助售票等自助服务得到了广泛应用。人们通过自助方式可以享受更加个性化、便利的服务；企业也可以通过自助服务方式节约成本、提高利润。然而,自助服务的实际市场扩散情况与消费者的使用意愿存在差距,不同类型的自助服务无论是在扩散时间,还是在扩散效果上都存在很大差异。因此,需要深刻了解不同自助服务的差异特征,并在此基础上掌握不同类型自助服务的市场扩散规律,才能帮助企业制定准确有效的发展策略。然而,无论在自助服务研究领域,还是在产品扩散研究领域,都还没有相对系统地对此问题进行分析。
在自助服务相关研究中,目前的研究都基本以一种或几种典型自助服务为研究对象；且主要关注概念界定、分类特点、采纳特征和影响效果四个方面的问题。虽然对自助服务已经有较完善的定性分类,但是定量分类的不充分导致对自助服务类型认识存在局限；同时,现在对自助服务的研究都是基于顾客采纳视角,很少有从企业视角分析自助服务的扩散过程的；零散的扩散机制研究非常不利于自助服务的市场成长。在产品扩散研究领域,已经出现了较多有效的扩散模型,基本形成了“总体层面模型为主、个体层面模型为辅、混合模型伴随”的研究现状。随着研究的深入,学者们发现混合模型是最能深入反映扩散机制,但是对于混合模型的研究尚处于探索阶段,目前的研究基本没有充分体现产品特点。此外,无论是扩散模型的构建还是扩散模型的验证方面,都主要针对耐用品和移动通信服务,还没有系统以服务为主的扩散模型。服务扩散模型发展的滞后在一定程度上会阻碍服务业的成长。因此,需要从混合扩散方面加强对服务扩散的研究,既要体现服务的普遍性,又要展现不同服务的特征,从而形成对服务扩散的系统研究。在这样的现实与理论背景之下,本文的研究工作显得非常的重要和必要。
基于目前自助服务和扩散模型的研究成果和不足,本文采用层层递进的方式分别从自助服务分类、自助服务扩散模型提出与验证、自助服务扩散策略三个层次相对系统地研究了自助服务扩散问题。
(1)首先,在对现有自助服务分类研究分析和归纳的基础上,本文采用定量分析方法从顾客感知的角度对自助服务的分类问题进行研究。为了反映自助服务的特点,本文在传统服务分类维度的基础上增加了自助服务采纳特性,提取了适用于自助服务的7个分类维度变量；并综合应用文献分析法、问卷调查法和访谈法,从现有的自助服务中确定了11项典型自助服务作为种类变量。本文采用语义差异量表设计了基于顾客感知的自助服务分类问卷,通过网络填答的方式进行问卷收集。之后,本文通过多维尺度分析方法(MDS)生成空间感知图,识别自助服务分类的关键维度与典型类型之间的关系。结果显示：传递方式和人际环境是顾客区分不同种类自助服务的两个关键维度。因此,本文将自助服务分为受群体同质影响的自助服务、受群体同质影响且重复购买的自助服务、受群体异质影响的自助服务、受群体异质影响且重复购买的自助服务四大类。
(2)其次,本研究将自助服务的分类特征与基于网络结构的混合扩散模型研究相结合,针对四类自助服务分别构建了相应的扩散模型,并通过实际的市场扩散数据验证了本文所提出模型的有效性和优越性。在混合扩散模型的现有研究中,本文引入Shaikh等人提出的基于规则网络和基于小世界网络的多重影响扩散模型。通过对自助服务人际交互和重复购买两类特征的分析,对Shaikh等人的假设和模型进行拓展,系统阐释了本研究模型与Shaikh系列模型之间的关系。然后,基于复杂网络研究和概率分析方法构建了自助服务系列扩散模型：基于随机网络结构,构建了具有群体特点的HOGI模型以及既具有群体特点又具有重复购买特点的RHOGI模型；基于小世界网络结构,构建了具有人际交互特点的HEGI模型以及既具有人际交互特点又具有重复购买特点的RHEGI模型。
为了验证模型的有效性,本文还选取了部分自助服务的实际市场扩散数据,采用计量经济学分析方法分别对HOGI模型、RHOGI模型、HEGI模型以及RHEGI模型进行验证。考虑到数据获取的有效性和准确性,本文分别选择了相应的四类提供自助服务的上市公司数据进行分析,即：邮箱服务、移动电话服务、即时通讯服务以及在线游戏服务。首先,本文采用遗传算法对模型进行参数估计；其次,通过可绝系数(R2)和残差平方和(S2)进行拟合优度检验、采用渐进F分布统计量检验参数的显著性,通过平均绝对误差、平均相对误差绝对值、预测误差的方差和标准差四个指标判断模型的预测精度。在模型分析中,本文对比了Bass模型、NUI模型、HOGI模型、RHOGI模型、HEGI模型以及RHEGI模型在拟合效果以及预测效果方面的差异。通过不同模型对数据的分析结果比较,证明了本文提出的基于自助服务特征的系列混合扩散模型最能有效反映相应自助服务扩散特征,从而验证了本文所提出的模型的有效性和优越性。
(3)最后,为了能将自助服务扩散研究的理论与实际的市场行为联系起来,本文在扩散模型的基础上提出了基于模型分析的自助服务扩散策略分析框架,相对系统地阐述了自助服务扩散策略分析过程,并提出了自助服务扩散过程管理框架。本文认为在扩散策略分析时,先要基于模型参数,讨论外部影响系数、平均节点度等关键参数对扩散效果的影响程度；然后,对模型参数进行市场化解释,使模型参数具有实际的市场价值；之后,通过市场意义的解读,提出自助服务扩散中较为普遍的市场策略。本文认为在自助服务扩散初期,可以通过具有针对性的广告宣传和免费使用的方式扩大初期的用户规模；在扩散的中后期,可以通过市场细分、差异化服务、推荐机制以及客户信息管理系统强化用户之间的联系、进行客户关系维系。最后,为了能够有效控制和掌握自助服务扩散的过程,还需要进行自助服务扩散过程管理,从而实现自助服务扩散的动态调控。
本研究的创新之处表现在：
第一,本文采用定量分析的方法首次对自助服务分类进行研究。不仅在维度选择上突破了传统服务特点的限制,创新性地将传统服务分类维度与自助服务的采纳特点相结合；而且是国内首次专门针对自助服务分类的定量研究,是对自助服务研究的一种有益探索。
第二,本研究将自助服务的分类维度进行模型化分析,基于不同服务的特征分别构建出四个自助服务扩散模。此系列模型不仅将个体扩散模型与总体扩散模型有效结合起来,而且体现了不同自助服务的特征。此外,本研究还采用实际自助服务的市场数据对模型进行验证证明了该理论模型的现实价值。自助服务扩散模型的建立对认识和理解自助服务扩散规律提出了新的视角。
第三,本文提出了基于模型分析的自助服务扩散策略分析过程,不仅实现了理论分析的落地,而且将理论分析与企业运营决策有机结合起来,是服务营销领域研究的创新。
由于时间和研究水平的限制,本论文还存在几方面的不足有待未来的进一步探索：
(1)本研究从顾客采纳中选取了部分因素作为分类标准。但是,要更加全面地理解顾客对自助服务分类的感知,还可以加入顾客满意、顾客忠诚等多种维度特征；同时,还可以继续扩大调查对象的范围、增加调查对象的数量,加强分类研究结果的普适性。
(2)本研究主要基于简单随机网络和WS小世界网络进行建模,且仅用平均节点度来表征网络的特征；为了更全面体现人际关系网络的特征,在未来的扩散建模时可以加入平均路径长度、聚集系数等参数更深刻地展现自助服务扩散的内在机制。在模型验证方面,也可以考虑增加多种服务的种类数据或针对同一类服务增加多家企业的市场数据。
(3)本文虽然详细阐述了基于模型参数的自助服务策略分析过程,但是这仅仅是从概念和框架上的叙述；为了能更好地证明此种方式的有效性,在未来也需要对这部分进行实证研究。
With the rapid development of Internet technology, the nature of traditional service has been changed, electronic banking, ticket reservation system and ticket vending machine has been widely used these years. According to the application of self-services, people can enjoy the convenient and personalized service; the companies can keep costs down and profits growth. However, there is a gap between customers's willingness and actual diffusion situation. The different self-services are varied in the diffusion time and effort. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the difference of self-services and grasp the law of diffusion process, which is significant and useful to establish the development strategy for companies. Nevertheless, there is few systematic researches on the problem of self-services diffusion in the field of self-services and product diffusion.
In the field of research on self-services, most of the study takes one or more kind self-service as subject; and focuses on the theme of definition, classification, adoption or performance. Although there is a completely qualitative research on self-services classification, the lack of quantitative method bring about the limitation of understanding the services. At the same time, all self-services research is based on customers perspective, a few research is from the view of firms. The unsystematically mechanistic investigation is bad for the development of self-services. In the field of research on product diffusion, there are lots of diffusion models, which are combined by aggregate level model, individual level model and mixture diffusion model. Although the mixture diffusion model can deeply reflect the diffusion mechanism, the study of mixture diffusion model is still in elementary stage. The present achievements can't reflect the feature of products. Besides, whatever the diffusion model or the empirical research, it is only aimed at durable-goods or moblie service. It is lack of systematical resarch on services, which will preclude development of service industry. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen research on services diffusion. The model should include the universality and characters. In the realistic and theoretical background, it is valuable and needful to conduct this research.
Based on the achievement and limitation of recent research on self-services and diffusion model, this paper systematically studies the diffusion of self-services from three dimensions:classification, diffusion model and empirical research, diffusion process strategy.
(1) Based on analysis and induction of classification literature, this paper classifies the self-services with quantitative method on the basis of the consumers' perspective. Compared with ralted literature, this paper selects seven classification dimensions to investigate difference among self-services; some of dimensions are come from the traditional research of service classification, the others are come from the research of self-services adoption. According to expert interview and questionnaire, this paper determines eleven typical self-services for research. Combined the semantic differential scale, this paper designs the questionnaire of classification from consumers' perspective and analyses data with multidimensional scaling. According to MDS method, all data are in a space perception map, which is useful to recognize the relationship between classification dimensions and typical self-services. The empirical results demonstrate that delivery and interpersonal environment are two key dimensions for classification. They divide self-services into four parts: homogeneous group interacted self-services (HOGI), repeat-purchase homogeneous group interacted self-services (RHOGI), heterogeneous group interacted model (HEGI), repeat-purchase heterogeneous group interacted model (RHEGI).
(2) This paper constructs four kinds of mixture diffusion model for self-services which are from complex network and classification feature; it also validates the effectiveness and relative advantage with real market data. This paper firstly introduces the MI model and SWMI model of Shaikh. By analyzing two key classification dimensions, this paper declares the relationship between this study and Shaikhs'. Then, by means of complex network and probability theory, we construct four mixture diffusion models. Based on the random network, we constructs the HOGI model with group influence, and RHOGI model with group influence and repeat purchase; based on the small world network, we constructs the HEGI model with group influence, and RHEGI model with group influence and repeat purchase.
In order to validate the effectiveness of these models, this paper carries on the empirical research with real market data by means of econometric analysis. Considering the effectiveness and accuracy of data, we choose four group data from listed companies; they are email service, mobile phone service, instant messenger service and online game service. This paper selects genetic algorithm to estimate parameters; tests goodness-of-fit with R2and S2; tests significance with gradual F distribution statistics; and measures prediction accuracy with MAPE, MAD、MAPE、MSE、SDE. Compared with the result of Bass model, NUI model as well as these four models to testify the validity our models. The empirical results shows that proposed models could fit the real market data separately best.
(3) This part is valuable to correlate diffusion theory with management practice and realizes the system analysis for self-services diffusion process. It systematically provides the development strategy of self-services diffusion and introduces the management framework of self-services diffusion process. This paper suggests that the process should include four parts:discuss the influence of model parameters, interpret the market property of key parameters, and propose appropriate development strategy based on the discussion, diffusion process management. This paper offers the common proposal for the early and late stage. This paper holds the view that service companies could increase user base through advertisement and use free for charge at early stage. At late stage, it should foucus on keeping and strengthening the relaitionship among customers. Therefore, market segmentation, service differentiation, recommend mechanisms and customers' information management system are suit for this stage. The management framework of self-services diffusion process is useful to dynamically control the diffusion process. These parts are valuable to put the theory research into practice, which strengthenes practical sense for this research.
The main innovation of this paper as follows:
Firstly, this paper uses quantitative method to classify self-services. In respect of classification dimensions, it breaks the traditional service restrictions, and adds new dimensions from the research of adoption. This paper is the first quantitative classification study for self-services; it is a beneficial exploration in this field.
Secondly, this paper models two classification dimensions and constructs four diffusion models for different self-services. These diffusion models not only combine the individual level model and aggregate level model, but also show the key feature of four kinds of self-services. In addition, this paper uses actual market data to vertify these models. Our models propose a new view to recognize and understand the growth law of self-services.
Thirdly, this paper systematically proposes the strategy analysis method and process management framwork for self-services. It is valuable to correlate diffusion theory with actual management practice, which is a innovation in the field of service marketing.
Due to the restriction of time and research ability, there are some shortcomings:
(1) This paper chooses some adoption dimensions to classify, but if we want to have a thorough knowledge of self-services, it need add much more dimensions from other field, such as customer satisfaction. In the future, it should extend investigations from respondents to get the more general classification conclusion.
(2) This paper constructs diffusion models based on random network and small world network, which only use average node degree to characterize the network. It is valuable to add other characterization (for example:cluster coefficient and short average path length) into the model to reveal mechanism of self-services diffusion in future. In addition, we should use more corporate data or species data to validate the effectiveness of these models.
(3) This paper introduces the framework of strategy analysis, but it is just a concept explanation. We need do the empirical research to demonstrate the realistic value of this framework in future.
在自助服务相关研究中,目前的研究都基本以一种或几种典型自助服务为研究对象；且主要关注概念界定、分类特点、采纳特征和影响效果四个方面的问题。虽然对自助服务已经有较完善的定性分类,但是定量分类的不充分导致对自助服务类型认识存在局限；同时,现在对自助服务的研究都是基于顾客采纳视角,很少有从企业视角分析自助服务的扩散过程的；零散的扩散机制研究非常不利于自助服务的市场成长。在产品扩散研究领域,已经出现了较多有效的扩散模型,基本形成了“总体层面模型为主、个体层面模型为辅、混合模型伴随”的研究现状。随着研究的深入,学者们发现混合模型是最能深入反映扩散机制,但是对于混合模型的研究尚处于探索阶段,目前的研究基本没有充分体现产品特点。此外,无论是扩散模型的构建还是扩散模型的验证方面,都主要针对耐用品和移动通信服务,还没有系统以服务为主的扩散模型。服务扩散模型发展的滞后在一定程度上会阻碍服务业的成长。因此,需要从混合扩散方面加强对服务扩散的研究,既要体现服务的普遍性,又要展现不同服务的特征,从而形成对服务扩散的系统研究。在这样的现实与理论背景之下,本文的研究工作显得非常的重要和必要。
基于目前自助服务和扩散模型的研究成果和不足,本文采用层层递进的方式分别从自助服务分类、自助服务扩散模型提出与验证、自助服务扩散策略三个层次相对系统地研究了自助服务扩散问题。
(1)首先,在对现有自助服务分类研究分析和归纳的基础上,本文采用定量分析方法从顾客感知的角度对自助服务的分类问题进行研究。为了反映自助服务的特点,本文在传统服务分类维度的基础上增加了自助服务采纳特性,提取了适用于自助服务的7个分类维度变量；并综合应用文献分析法、问卷调查法和访谈法,从现有的自助服务中确定了11项典型自助服务作为种类变量。本文采用语义差异量表设计了基于顾客感知的自助服务分类问卷,通过网络填答的方式进行问卷收集。之后,本文通过多维尺度分析方法(MDS)生成空间感知图,识别自助服务分类的关键维度与典型类型之间的关系。结果显示：传递方式和人际环境是顾客区分不同种类自助服务的两个关键维度。因此,本文将自助服务分为受群体同质影响的自助服务、受群体同质影响且重复购买的自助服务、受群体异质影响的自助服务、受群体异质影响且重复购买的自助服务四大类。
(2)其次,本研究将自助服务的分类特征与基于网络结构的混合扩散模型研究相结合,针对四类自助服务分别构建了相应的扩散模型,并通过实际的市场扩散数据验证了本文所提出模型的有效性和优越性。在混合扩散模型的现有研究中,本文引入Shaikh等人提出的基于规则网络和基于小世界网络的多重影响扩散模型。通过对自助服务人际交互和重复购买两类特征的分析,对Shaikh等人的假设和模型进行拓展,系统阐释了本研究模型与Shaikh系列模型之间的关系。然后,基于复杂网络研究和概率分析方法构建了自助服务系列扩散模型：基于随机网络结构,构建了具有群体特点的HOGI模型以及既具有群体特点又具有重复购买特点的RHOGI模型；基于小世界网络结构,构建了具有人际交互特点的HEGI模型以及既具有人际交互特点又具有重复购买特点的RHEGI模型。
为了验证模型的有效性,本文还选取了部分自助服务的实际市场扩散数据,采用计量经济学分析方法分别对HOGI模型、RHOGI模型、HEGI模型以及RHEGI模型进行验证。考虑到数据获取的有效性和准确性,本文分别选择了相应的四类提供自助服务的上市公司数据进行分析,即：邮箱服务、移动电话服务、即时通讯服务以及在线游戏服务。首先,本文采用遗传算法对模型进行参数估计；其次,通过可绝系数(R2)和残差平方和(S2)进行拟合优度检验、采用渐进F分布统计量检验参数的显著性,通过平均绝对误差、平均相对误差绝对值、预测误差的方差和标准差四个指标判断模型的预测精度。在模型分析中,本文对比了Bass模型、NUI模型、HOGI模型、RHOGI模型、HEGI模型以及RHEGI模型在拟合效果以及预测效果方面的差异。通过不同模型对数据的分析结果比较,证明了本文提出的基于自助服务特征的系列混合扩散模型最能有效反映相应自助服务扩散特征,从而验证了本文所提出的模型的有效性和优越性。
(3)最后,为了能将自助服务扩散研究的理论与实际的市场行为联系起来,本文在扩散模型的基础上提出了基于模型分析的自助服务扩散策略分析框架,相对系统地阐述了自助服务扩散策略分析过程,并提出了自助服务扩散过程管理框架。本文认为在扩散策略分析时,先要基于模型参数,讨论外部影响系数、平均节点度等关键参数对扩散效果的影响程度；然后,对模型参数进行市场化解释,使模型参数具有实际的市场价值；之后,通过市场意义的解读,提出自助服务扩散中较为普遍的市场策略。本文认为在自助服务扩散初期,可以通过具有针对性的广告宣传和免费使用的方式扩大初期的用户规模；在扩散的中后期,可以通过市场细分、差异化服务、推荐机制以及客户信息管理系统强化用户之间的联系、进行客户关系维系。最后,为了能够有效控制和掌握自助服务扩散的过程,还需要进行自助服务扩散过程管理,从而实现自助服务扩散的动态调控。
本研究的创新之处表现在：
第一,本文采用定量分析的方法首次对自助服务分类进行研究。不仅在维度选择上突破了传统服务特点的限制,创新性地将传统服务分类维度与自助服务的采纳特点相结合；而且是国内首次专门针对自助服务分类的定量研究,是对自助服务研究的一种有益探索。
第二,本研究将自助服务的分类维度进行模型化分析,基于不同服务的特征分别构建出四个自助服务扩散模。此系列模型不仅将个体扩散模型与总体扩散模型有效结合起来,而且体现了不同自助服务的特征。此外,本研究还采用实际自助服务的市场数据对模型进行验证证明了该理论模型的现实价值。自助服务扩散模型的建立对认识和理解自助服务扩散规律提出了新的视角。
第三,本文提出了基于模型分析的自助服务扩散策略分析过程,不仅实现了理论分析的落地,而且将理论分析与企业运营决策有机结合起来,是服务营销领域研究的创新。
由于时间和研究水平的限制,本论文还存在几方面的不足有待未来的进一步探索：
(1)本研究从顾客采纳中选取了部分因素作为分类标准。但是,要更加全面地理解顾客对自助服务分类的感知,还可以加入顾客满意、顾客忠诚等多种维度特征；同时,还可以继续扩大调查对象的范围、增加调查对象的数量,加强分类研究结果的普适性。
(2)本研究主要基于简单随机网络和WS小世界网络进行建模,且仅用平均节点度来表征网络的特征；为了更全面体现人际关系网络的特征,在未来的扩散建模时可以加入平均路径长度、聚集系数等参数更深刻地展现自助服务扩散的内在机制。在模型验证方面,也可以考虑增加多种服务的种类数据或针对同一类服务增加多家企业的市场数据。
(3)本文虽然详细阐述了基于模型参数的自助服务策略分析过程,但是这仅仅是从概念和框架上的叙述；为了能更好地证明此种方式的有效性,在未来也需要对这部分进行实证研究。
With the rapid development of Internet technology, the nature of traditional service has been changed, electronic banking, ticket reservation system and ticket vending machine has been widely used these years. According to the application of self-services, people can enjoy the convenient and personalized service; the companies can keep costs down and profits growth. However, there is a gap between customers's willingness and actual diffusion situation. The different self-services are varied in the diffusion time and effort. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the difference of self-services and grasp the law of diffusion process, which is significant and useful to establish the development strategy for companies. Nevertheless, there is few systematic researches on the problem of self-services diffusion in the field of self-services and product diffusion.
In the field of research on self-services, most of the study takes one or more kind self-service as subject; and focuses on the theme of definition, classification, adoption or performance. Although there is a completely qualitative research on self-services classification, the lack of quantitative method bring about the limitation of understanding the services. At the same time, all self-services research is based on customers perspective, a few research is from the view of firms. The unsystematically mechanistic investigation is bad for the development of self-services. In the field of research on product diffusion, there are lots of diffusion models, which are combined by aggregate level model, individual level model and mixture diffusion model. Although the mixture diffusion model can deeply reflect the diffusion mechanism, the study of mixture diffusion model is still in elementary stage. The present achievements can't reflect the feature of products. Besides, whatever the diffusion model or the empirical research, it is only aimed at durable-goods or moblie service. It is lack of systematical resarch on services, which will preclude development of service industry. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen research on services diffusion. The model should include the universality and characters. In the realistic and theoretical background, it is valuable and needful to conduct this research.
Based on the achievement and limitation of recent research on self-services and diffusion model, this paper systematically studies the diffusion of self-services from three dimensions:classification, diffusion model and empirical research, diffusion process strategy.
(1) Based on analysis and induction of classification literature, this paper classifies the self-services with quantitative method on the basis of the consumers' perspective. Compared with ralted literature, this paper selects seven classification dimensions to investigate difference among self-services; some of dimensions are come from the traditional research of service classification, the others are come from the research of self-services adoption. According to expert interview and questionnaire, this paper determines eleven typical self-services for research. Combined the semantic differential scale, this paper designs the questionnaire of classification from consumers' perspective and analyses data with multidimensional scaling. According to MDS method, all data are in a space perception map, which is useful to recognize the relationship between classification dimensions and typical self-services. The empirical results demonstrate that delivery and interpersonal environment are two key dimensions for classification. They divide self-services into four parts: homogeneous group interacted self-services (HOGI), repeat-purchase homogeneous group interacted self-services (RHOGI), heterogeneous group interacted model (HEGI), repeat-purchase heterogeneous group interacted model (RHEGI).
(2) This paper constructs four kinds of mixture diffusion model for self-services which are from complex network and classification feature; it also validates the effectiveness and relative advantage with real market data. This paper firstly introduces the MI model and SWMI model of Shaikh. By analyzing two key classification dimensions, this paper declares the relationship between this study and Shaikhs'. Then, by means of complex network and probability theory, we construct four mixture diffusion models. Based on the random network, we constructs the HOGI model with group influence, and RHOGI model with group influence and repeat purchase; based on the small world network, we constructs the HEGI model with group influence, and RHEGI model with group influence and repeat purchase.
In order to validate the effectiveness of these models, this paper carries on the empirical research with real market data by means of econometric analysis. Considering the effectiveness and accuracy of data, we choose four group data from listed companies; they are email service, mobile phone service, instant messenger service and online game service. This paper selects genetic algorithm to estimate parameters; tests goodness-of-fit with R2and S2; tests significance with gradual F distribution statistics; and measures prediction accuracy with MAPE, MAD、MAPE、MSE、SDE. Compared with the result of Bass model, NUI model as well as these four models to testify the validity our models. The empirical results shows that proposed models could fit the real market data separately best.
(3) This part is valuable to correlate diffusion theory with management practice and realizes the system analysis for self-services diffusion process. It systematically provides the development strategy of self-services diffusion and introduces the management framework of self-services diffusion process. This paper suggests that the process should include four parts:discuss the influence of model parameters, interpret the market property of key parameters, and propose appropriate development strategy based on the discussion, diffusion process management. This paper offers the common proposal for the early and late stage. This paper holds the view that service companies could increase user base through advertisement and use free for charge at early stage. At late stage, it should foucus on keeping and strengthening the relaitionship among customers. Therefore, market segmentation, service differentiation, recommend mechanisms and customers' information management system are suit for this stage. The management framework of self-services diffusion process is useful to dynamically control the diffusion process. These parts are valuable to put the theory research into practice, which strengthenes practical sense for this research.
The main innovation of this paper as follows:
Firstly, this paper uses quantitative method to classify self-services. In respect of classification dimensions, it breaks the traditional service restrictions, and adds new dimensions from the research of adoption. This paper is the first quantitative classification study for self-services; it is a beneficial exploration in this field.
Secondly, this paper models two classification dimensions and constructs four diffusion models for different self-services. These diffusion models not only combine the individual level model and aggregate level model, but also show the key feature of four kinds of self-services. In addition, this paper uses actual market data to vertify these models. Our models propose a new view to recognize and understand the growth law of self-services.
Thirdly, this paper systematically proposes the strategy analysis method and process management framwork for self-services. It is valuable to correlate diffusion theory with actual management practice, which is a innovation in the field of service marketing.
Due to the restriction of time and research ability, there are some shortcomings:
(1) This paper chooses some adoption dimensions to classify, but if we want to have a thorough knowledge of self-services, it need add much more dimensions from other field, such as customer satisfaction. In the future, it should extend investigations from respondents to get the more general classification conclusion.
(2) This paper constructs diffusion models based on random network and small world network, which only use average node degree to characterize the network. It is valuable to add other characterization (for example:cluster coefficient and short average path length) into the model to reveal mechanism of self-services diffusion in future. In addition, we should use more corporate data or species data to validate the effectiveness of these models.
(3) This paper introduces the framework of strategy analysis, but it is just a concept explanation. We need do the empirical research to demonstrate the realistic value of this framework in future.
引文
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