基于群决策的河南物流产业风险识别与防范研究
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摘要
物流活动是人类最基本的社会经济活动之一,物流业是兴起较晚但发展相当快的一个产业。目前现代物流产业已经成为继制造业和商业之后的“第三利润源”,许多地方政府已将它作为一个专门的产业加以开发和应用。河南省素有“九州腹地、十省通衢”之誉,具有得天独厚的区位优势,古往今来是商家必争之地。近年来,随着河南经济的高速发展,河南物流业也有了新的突破。然而,河南物流业在获得发展的同时,也伴随着一定的风险。本文将河南物流产业的风险作为研究对象,希望能为风险管理机构提供一套科学的风险分析与评估的理论方法,为河南物流业的发展提供一些建设性的风险防范建议。
本文采用调查研究与理论分析相结合的方法,配合数学模型对所研究的问题进行全面分析、论证与计算。本文研究的重点从河南省物流产业现状及存在的问题出发,给出物流产业风险的定义和特点,提出了河南物流产业的风险分级全息识别,将群决策理论与熵的思想、模糊综合评价法相结合,建立了一套科学定量化的风险评估模型。本模型采用专家权威评分结合专家AHP判断来确定专家的权重,将熵权法和群体AHP法组合使用来确定指标的权重,最后通过模糊综合评判得到物流产业的最终风险水平,做到了对物流产业风险的客观量化评估。同时,本模型还针对河南省物流产业的风险进行了成功的评估实践,评估结果显示目前河南省物流产业风险属于中等风险水平,并提出了对应于不同等级和不同种类的风险控制策略和措施,并依据河南省物流产业的风险状况和风险水平,提出河南物流业防范风险的策略建议。
The logistics activity is one of mankind’s most basically social economic activities. The logistics industry is an industry that appeared less late but develops rather fast. Currently, the modern logistics industry has already become“the third profits source" following manufacturing industry and businesses. Many local governments have already viewed it as a specialized industry to take into development and applications. Henan Province has superior niche advantages, with good reputation“interior regions of nine states, main thoroughfares of ten provinces ", so it is the ground that mongers necessarily contend for at all ages. In recent years, Henan’s logistics industry is also developing with new breakthrough along with the high speed development of Henan’s economic. However, at the time of Henan’s logistics industry acquiring development, it also accompanies with certain risks. This text views the risks of Henan's logistics industry as the research object, hoping to provide risk management for a set of scientifically theoretical method on risk analysis and evaluation, and to provide the development of Henan's logistics industry for constructive recommendations about risk preventions.
This paper uses a method by combining investigation study with theoretical analysis, and with the mathematical model to conduct a comprehensive analysis, argument and calculation for the study. In this paper, the focus of study begins with the current situation and problems of Henan's logistics industry, given the definition and characteristics of logistics industry risk, raised the risk hierarchical holographic identification of the logistics industry in Henan, established a scientifically quantitative model on risk evaluation through a combination of group decision theory with the idea of entropy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This model uses the authority scoring of experts combining determination AHP of experts to determine the weight of experts, and by the combination of the right of entropy and group AHP method to determine the weight of indexes, and finally through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to get the ultimate risk level of logistics industry, so that it has accomplished the objective and quantitative evaluation of the logistics industry risk. At the same time, this model has also carried on the successful evaluation practice for the logistics industry in Henan Province, the result of the evaluation showed that the logistics industry risk of Henan currently belongs to medium level, and put forward risk control strategies and measures corresponding to different levels and different types of risks. Based on the risk situation and risk level of the logistics industry in Henan Province, this text proposes some risk prevention strategies.
本文采用调查研究与理论分析相结合的方法,配合数学模型对所研究的问题进行全面分析、论证与计算。本文研究的重点从河南省物流产业现状及存在的问题出发,给出物流产业风险的定义和特点,提出了河南物流产业的风险分级全息识别,将群决策理论与熵的思想、模糊综合评价法相结合,建立了一套科学定量化的风险评估模型。本模型采用专家权威评分结合专家AHP判断来确定专家的权重,将熵权法和群体AHP法组合使用来确定指标的权重,最后通过模糊综合评判得到物流产业的最终风险水平,做到了对物流产业风险的客观量化评估。同时,本模型还针对河南省物流产业的风险进行了成功的评估实践,评估结果显示目前河南省物流产业风险属于中等风险水平,并提出了对应于不同等级和不同种类的风险控制策略和措施,并依据河南省物流产业的风险状况和风险水平,提出河南物流业防范风险的策略建议。
The logistics activity is one of mankind’s most basically social economic activities. The logistics industry is an industry that appeared less late but develops rather fast. Currently, the modern logistics industry has already become“the third profits source" following manufacturing industry and businesses. Many local governments have already viewed it as a specialized industry to take into development and applications. Henan Province has superior niche advantages, with good reputation“interior regions of nine states, main thoroughfares of ten provinces ", so it is the ground that mongers necessarily contend for at all ages. In recent years, Henan’s logistics industry is also developing with new breakthrough along with the high speed development of Henan’s economic. However, at the time of Henan’s logistics industry acquiring development, it also accompanies with certain risks. This text views the risks of Henan's logistics industry as the research object, hoping to provide risk management for a set of scientifically theoretical method on risk analysis and evaluation, and to provide the development of Henan's logistics industry for constructive recommendations about risk preventions.
This paper uses a method by combining investigation study with theoretical analysis, and with the mathematical model to conduct a comprehensive analysis, argument and calculation for the study. In this paper, the focus of study begins with the current situation and problems of Henan's logistics industry, given the definition and characteristics of logistics industry risk, raised the risk hierarchical holographic identification of the logistics industry in Henan, established a scientifically quantitative model on risk evaluation through a combination of group decision theory with the idea of entropy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This model uses the authority scoring of experts combining determination AHP of experts to determine the weight of experts, and by the combination of the right of entropy and group AHP method to determine the weight of indexes, and finally through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to get the ultimate risk level of logistics industry, so that it has accomplished the objective and quantitative evaluation of the logistics industry risk. At the same time, this model has also carried on the successful evaluation practice for the logistics industry in Henan Province, the result of the evaluation showed that the logistics industry risk of Henan currently belongs to medium level, and put forward risk control strategies and measures corresponding to different levels and different types of risks. Based on the risk situation and risk level of the logistics industry in Henan Province, this text proposes some risk prevention strategies.
引文
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[10]郭晓平,张岐山.基于改进DEA方法的物流产业竞争力评价[J].物流技术,2007(11):139-140.
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[14]Kimberly A Kilmer Hollister,Montclalr State University.A Risk/Cost Framework For logistics Policy Evaluation:Hazardous Waste Management[J].Jouranl of Business & Economic studies,2002,8(1):23~30.
[15]Ming-chih Tsai , Ying-So su. Political risk assessment on air logistics hub developments in Taiwan [J].Journal of AirTransport Management,2002,(8).
[16]G E Appleguist,J F Pekny,G V Reklaitis. Risk and uncertainty in Managingchemical manufacturing supplychains[J」.Computers and Chemical Engineering,2000,(24):2 211~2 222.
[17]陈伟忠,汪应洛.高新技术产业的风险系统研究[M].陕西人民出版社,1998.9.
[18]刘平,杨翠荣.区域房地产业的风险分析与防范对策——对阳朔县旅游房地产业的调查[J].广西金融研究,2006(2):42-43.
[19]杨文臻.注意规避煤炭产业风险[J].当代矿工,2005(12):55-56.
[20]汪传旭.第三方物流运作的风险分析及其防范措施[J].物流技术,2003(3):40-41.
[21]陈志刚,陈祥锋.基于Fuzzy-AHP的物流企业经营风险评估[J].物流技术,2006(7):124-126.
[22]钟静.基于汇率风险特征的对外物流企业汇率风险防范对策研究[J].物流技术,2006(7):103-105.
[23]刘永幸.物流企业财务风险预警指标初探[J].中州煤炭,2005(6):71-72.
[24]Hwang C L, Lin M J. Group decision making under multiple criteria [M], Berlin:Springer-Verlag, 1987.
[25]魏存平.群体决策中偏好信息集结的理论与应用研究[D].北京航空航天大学,1999.
[26]陈珽.决策分析[M].北京:科学出版社,1987.
[27]邱苑华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2001.
[28]苏波,王洗尘.群决策研究的评述[J].决策与决策支持系统,1995, 5(3): 115-124.
[29]李怀祖.决策理论导引[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1993.
[30] Harsanyi J C, Cardinal Welfare. individualistic ethics and interpersonal comparison of utility [J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1955, 63: 309-315.
[31]Harsanyi J C. A bargaining Model for the cooperative N-Person Game. Annals of Mathematics Studies[明.Princeton:Princeton University Press. 1959, 4(40):325-355.
[32]姜圣阶.决策学基础(上、下)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1986.
[33] Arrow K J. Social Choice and Individual Values [M]. 2nd ed. Yale University, New Haven, 1963.
[34]Simon H A. The New Science of Management Decision [M]. Prentice Hall Inc,Englewood Clifs, New Jersey, 1977.
[35]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[36]刘文龙,高爱厚.经济决策分析[M].军事谊文出版社,1993.
[37]肖四汉.具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策理论与方法研究[D].东北大学,2001.
[38]孟波.有限方案模糊多目标群决策方法的研究[J].系统工程,1995,13(4): 43-46.
[39]孟波,付微.一种有限方案多目标群决策方法[J].系统工程,1998,16(4):57-61.
[40]胡毓达,田川.求解群体多指标决策问题的偏爱度法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996,3: 52-56.
[41]宋光兴.多属性决策理论、方法及其在矿业中的应用研究[D].昆明理工大学,2001.
[42]王述英,王青.试论物流产业的属性及其组成[J].学习与探索,2006(2):228-230.
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