我国沿海地区炼油和乙烯的供需平衡研究
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摘要
石化工业作为推动工业化、城市化和国民经济增长的重要力量,它对经济增长的贡献愈加凸显。而炼油和乙烯作为石化工业的龙头在国民经济中的地位和作用也日益显著,炼油和乙烯的发展水平及其供给能力也成为衡量我国石化工业现代化程度的重要指标。但是,随着我国石油消费量的增长和油价的攀升,我国石化工业的发展尤其是沿海石化工业的发展面临的矛盾和问题最为突出。此外,我国石化工业发展起步相对较晚,研究理论不够成熟,对石化工业的的研究多以定性分析为主。因此,开展对石化工业炼油和乙烯的供需平衡研究,剖析炼油和乙烯在发展中遇到的瓶颈,解决石化工业发展面临的矛盾和问题,实现石化工业与国民经济健康协调发展,具有重要的理论意义和深远的实践意义。
本文从分析沿海石化工业发展现状入手,首先阐述了石化工业的发展历程、沿海石化工业基地和园区的空间分布格局,简单概括出沿海石化工业发展的特点,通过归纳总结,筛选出具有代表性的石化产品即炼油和乙烯来凸显石化工业未来发展的趋势；其次利用状态空间模型建立全国性的炼油、乙烯需求的预测模型,定量预测出“十二五”期间炼油和乙烯的需求量；梳理“十二五”期间我国炼油和乙烯的总生产能力,进行炼油和乙烯的供需平衡分析,剖析发展中存在的产品、结构供需失衡问题,对引起供需失衡的原因进行分析,剖析供需失衡带来的隐患；最后针对问题和隐患,提出以促进石化工业与沿海经济、资源和环境持续、健康、协调发展为核心的对策建议。
As an important force to promote industrialization、urbanization and the growth of national economy, the contribution of petroleum and chemical industry is even more prominent in China. The status and role of oil refining and ethylene in the petroleum and chemical industry leading position in the national economy are increasingly significant, the level of oil refining and ethylene、the strength of supply capacity also become an important indicator to measure the degree of modernization of petroleum and chemical industry in China. However, with the growth of oil consumption and the rising of oil prices, China's petroleum and chemical industry especially coastal areas petroleum and chemical industry facing the prominent contradictions and problems in the development. Coupled with the development of petroleum and chemical industry started relatively late, the study theory is not mature enough、research the petroleum and chemical industry commonly used qualitative analysis. Therefore, research the balance about supply and demand of oil refining and ethylene, analysis the contradictions and problems faced by the petroleum and chemical industry, solve the the contradictions and problems in the petroleum and chemical industry development process become an important theoretical significance and far-reaching practical significance that to achieve the coordinated and health between the petroleum chemical industry and the national economy.
Based on analysis the development status of coastal petroleum chemical industry, described the course of development about the petroleum and chemical industry firstly, spatial distribution pattern about the base and park of the coastal petroleum and chemical industry, summary the characteristics of the development of the coastal petroleum and chemical industry briefly, screened representative of petroleum and chemical products oil refining and ethylene to highlight the future development trends of the petroleum and chemical industry. Use the State Space Model Forecast establish the demand forecasting model of national oil、ethylene, quantitative predict of the "12th Five-Year" period demand for oil refining and ethylene; summary the "12th Five-Year" period of China's total oil refining and ethylene production capacity, analysis the balance between supply and demand of oil refining and ethylene, analysis the product and structure of supply and demand imbalance in the development, find the reasons that cause imbalance about supply and demand and solve it, analysis the potential threat that caused by the supply and demand imbalance. Finally, for the problems and pitfalls, put forward to the core of suggestions that promoting the development in the environment、health、coordination between coastal economy and the petroleum and chemical industry.
本文从分析沿海石化工业发展现状入手,首先阐述了石化工业的发展历程、沿海石化工业基地和园区的空间分布格局,简单概括出沿海石化工业发展的特点,通过归纳总结,筛选出具有代表性的石化产品即炼油和乙烯来凸显石化工业未来发展的趋势；其次利用状态空间模型建立全国性的炼油、乙烯需求的预测模型,定量预测出“十二五”期间炼油和乙烯的需求量；梳理“十二五”期间我国炼油和乙烯的总生产能力,进行炼油和乙烯的供需平衡分析,剖析发展中存在的产品、结构供需失衡问题,对引起供需失衡的原因进行分析,剖析供需失衡带来的隐患；最后针对问题和隐患,提出以促进石化工业与沿海经济、资源和环境持续、健康、协调发展为核心的对策建议。
As an important force to promote industrialization、urbanization and the growth of national economy, the contribution of petroleum and chemical industry is even more prominent in China. The status and role of oil refining and ethylene in the petroleum and chemical industry leading position in the national economy are increasingly significant, the level of oil refining and ethylene、the strength of supply capacity also become an important indicator to measure the degree of modernization of petroleum and chemical industry in China. However, with the growth of oil consumption and the rising of oil prices, China's petroleum and chemical industry especially coastal areas petroleum and chemical industry facing the prominent contradictions and problems in the development. Coupled with the development of petroleum and chemical industry started relatively late, the study theory is not mature enough、research the petroleum and chemical industry commonly used qualitative analysis. Therefore, research the balance about supply and demand of oil refining and ethylene, analysis the contradictions and problems faced by the petroleum and chemical industry, solve the the contradictions and problems in the petroleum and chemical industry development process become an important theoretical significance and far-reaching practical significance that to achieve the coordinated and health between the petroleum chemical industry and the national economy.
Based on analysis the development status of coastal petroleum chemical industry, described the course of development about the petroleum and chemical industry firstly, spatial distribution pattern about the base and park of the coastal petroleum and chemical industry, summary the characteristics of the development of the coastal petroleum and chemical industry briefly, screened representative of petroleum and chemical products oil refining and ethylene to highlight the future development trends of the petroleum and chemical industry. Use the State Space Model Forecast establish the demand forecasting model of national oil、ethylene, quantitative predict of the "12th Five-Year" period demand for oil refining and ethylene; summary the "12th Five-Year" period of China's total oil refining and ethylene production capacity, analysis the balance between supply and demand of oil refining and ethylene, analysis the product and structure of supply and demand imbalance in the development, find the reasons that cause imbalance about supply and demand and solve it, analysis the potential threat that caused by the supply and demand imbalance. Finally, for the problems and pitfalls, put forward to the core of suggestions that promoting the development in the environment、health、coordination between coastal economy and the petroleum and chemical industry.
引文
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[3]Keith Chapman. The evolution and development of the world petrochemical industry. Business History,1993(1).
[4]Swaminathan. V. The course of development of petrochemical industry in India. Journal of Energy Economics,1998(1).
[5]Van-Savage. The challenges of petrochemical industry in Asia. Journal of Energy Economics,2001, (4).
[6]Michael Traynor. The Oil Crisis, Risk and Evidence-based Practice. Nursing Inquiry,2002, (9):162-169.
[7]周新迁.中国石化产业可持续发展研究：(博士学位论文).福建：厦门大学,2006.
[8]魏澄荣.循环经济的特征与福建石化产业的发展思路,福建论坛·人文社会科学版,2006(8).
[9]瞿国华.浅论区域经济和中国石化的发展,石油化工技术经济,1996(2).
[10]周银才.石油石化大企业融入区域经济势在必行,中国石化,2007(6).
[11]林立忠.石化工业污染对泉港区环境质量影响研究：(博士学位论文).上海：中国科学院上海冶金研究所,2000.
[12]张文静.生态脆弱区石化工业开发的生态承载力研究：(硕士学位论文).西安：西北大学,2007.
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[14]刘延伟.我国石化产业现状及资源供求分析：(博士学位论文).上海：中国科学院上海冶金研究所,2005.
[15]高平发.基于ISM方法的石化产业发展问题研究,价值工程,2010(1).
[16]中国行业年度报告之石油化工,中国经济信息网,2009.
[17]董科国.经济全球化背景下中国石化工业区位演化及机制研究：(硕士学位论文).上海：华东师范大学,2008.
[18]张文忠,董科国,田山川.中国石化工业发展和区位变迁轨迹,地理研究,2009(5).
[19]国家经济贸易委员会编：“十五”工业规划与发展战略.经济科学出版社,2001.
[20]Young Chang, Joon Fong Wong. Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy. Energy Policy.2003, (31):1151-1165.
[21]张文忠,董科国.中国石化工业发展和区位变迁轨迹,地理研究,2009(5).
[22]杨晓.我国以化工园区为中心加快发展精细化工业,中国石油和化工,2004(3).
[23]钱伯章.世界化工园区发展现状,现代化工.2005(2).
[24]伍桂松.试论我国化学[业的基地化建设,化工技术经济,2002(4).
[25]马新华.我国集装箱港口吞吐能力供需平衡研究(硕士学位论文).辽宁：大连海事大学,2010.
[26]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论.武汉：华中工业学院出版社,1985.
[27]钟永光,贾晓菁,李旭.系统动力学.北京：科学出版社,2009.
[28]张晓峒.计量经学基础.天津：南开大学出版社,2007.
[29]孙敬水,马淑琴.计量经济学.北京：清华大学出版社,2009.
[30]高铁梅.计量经济学分析方法与建模:EViews应用与实例.北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[31]Soytas, Sari, R. Energy Consumption and GDP:Causality Relationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets.Journal of Energy Economics,2003(5).
[32]Keith Chapman. The International Petrochemical Industry. Business History, 1993(1).
[33]Rivero, Ricardo. Application of the exergy concept in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industry. Energy Conversion & Management,2002(6).
[34]Barkdale. HiramJ Jr, Julie T Johnson, Munshik Suh. A Relationship Maintenance Model:A comparison between Managed Health and Traditional Free-for-Service. Journal of Business Research,1997,40:237-247.
[35]炼油在建、改扩建和拟建项目.国家信息中心中经网,2011-03：1-14.
[36]张宏芳.中国石化的竞争力分析及对策研究(硕士学位论文).浙江：浙江大学,2003.[37]BP世界能源统计年鉴,2011.
[38]王晓心,黄海编译.亚洲长期石油经济及能源战略,国际石油经济,2004(6)：60-65.
[39]Petersen, Bruce. Petrochemical forecasting. Chemical Business,2006(5).
[40]James D. Hamilton. Oil and the Macroeconomy. University of California, San Diego, Department of Economics,2005,8.
[41]Michael Beenstock. An econometric model of the oil importing developing countries.Economic Modeling,1995,12(1):3-14.
[42]Sonia Wasan, D. Larry Crumbley. China Is Inching Towards A Market Economy In The Petroleum Sector. Petroleum Accounting and Financial Management Journal,2002, 21 (2):38-49.
[43]潘向阳.我国石化产业发展战略：(硕士学位论文).北京：对外经济贸易大学,2001.
[44]邹昭晞.石化产业发展循环经济产业模式与对策研究,现代化工,2006(1).
[45]ZHANG Liutong PRAVEEN K. Competitive pressures changing China coastal area petchems. Oil & Gas Journal 2010,108(9):46-51.
[46]Shu Zhao xia, Analysis to the Petrochemical Market in China and Projection. China Chemical Reporter,2005(6).
[47]NAKAMURA D N. Wor ldwide ethylene capacity increases 2 million tpy in 2007. Oil & Gas Journal A 2008,106(28):46-52.
[48]LIPPE D.US OLEFINS-SECOND-HALF 2010 Ethylene markets return to normal. Oil & Gas Journal 2011,109(10):94-99.
[49]Sandrine Lardic. Oil prices and economic activity:An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics,2008(30):847-855.
[50]Balke. N. S., S. P. A. Brown, and M. K. Yucel. Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy:Where does the Asvmmeetry Originate. The Energy Journal,2002,23(3):27-52.
[51]Junal Cunado, Femando Perez de Gracia. Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries[J]. Energy Economics.2003.25.
[52]Wang Tianpu. Development Prospect of Global and China's Petroleum & Petrochemical Industry. PETROLEUM& PETROCHEMICAL TODAY,2007,15(1).
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