弹道导弹防御系统探测能力建模与分析
|
摘要
弹道导弹防御系统是二十一世纪先进军事力量发展的重要方向,防御系统对来袭导弹的探测能力是决定拦截作战成败的关键环节。本文以弹道导弹防御系统探测能力分析为主要目的,系统地开展了针对目标探测过程的分析、建模与仿真研究,本文的主要研究工作包括:
探测能力指标体系的构建。以典型弹道导弹防御系统的构成与作战流程为例,分析了目标探测过程的信息交互,探讨了表征防御系统探测能力的两大要素。在此基础上,提炼并建立了探测能力指标体系。通过对探测能力影响因素的分析与梳理,确定了影响弹道导弹防御系统探测能力的关键因素。
面向导弹攻防仿真的实验设计方法应用研究。针对导弹攻防仿真实验中的确定型因素,采用正交设计和均匀设计实现多因素多水平的仿真实验设计,研究给出了两种设计方法的设计步骤与结果分析方法。针对服从特定统计分布的随机型因素,引入数论方法以产生均匀散布的抽样点集。通过简单算例,比较了数论方法与传统的Monte Carlo抽样的性能优劣,结果表明,相比Monte Carlo抽样,数论方法可以在保持精度的前提下显著降低计算成本。
防御系统探测过程建模与探测能力评估仿真系统研制。针对防御系统对来袭导弹的预警、捕获、跟踪过程,分别分析了卫星、雷达、总部级C2BMC的工作原理,建立了卫星/雷达目标探测与总部级C2BMC数据处理的功能仿真模型;以仿真管理与支撑环境为底层平台,依据模型隔离的设计模式,完成了探测能力评估仿真系统的总体设计与分系统开发,形成了实验设计、实验运行、结果分析的评估流程。
防御系统探测问题仿真实验与结果分析。以弹道导弹防御系统卫星、雷达的观测误差作为影响因素,开展正交仿真实验,采用方差分析处理实验结果,探讨了传感器观测误差对防御系统探测能力的影响;以预警雷达部署位置作为影响因素,考虑正常部署、前置部署、后置部署以及无预警雷达四种情况,分别开展仿真实验,考察了传感器部署位置对防御系统探测能力的影响。
本文所作的研究初步建立了以探测能力指标体系为依据,以探测能力评估仿真系统为支撑,以基于实验设计理论的目标探测仿真实验为手段的弹道导弹防御系统探测能力评估机制。研究成果具有一定的理论和应用价值,可为相关领域的其它研究提供参考。
The Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) is one of the most significant military forces in 21st century, and the detection ability of BMDS is a key node which plays a vital role in the intercepting process. This dissertation focuses on the subject of detection ability evaluation of BMDS, in which the analysis, modeling and simulation of BMDS detection process are systematically executed. The main results achieved in this dissertation are summarized as follows.
The evaluation indices system of the detection ability is constructed. Contraposing the structure and operation flow of a Classical BMDS, the information communication in the detection process is analyzed. Two important factors which can describe the detection ability of BMDS are discussed. Based on the above investigation, the evaluation indices system of the detection ability is established. In addition, the key factors which have influences on the detection ability of BMDS are determined.
The application of the experiment design method in BMDS simulation is researched. In allusion to the certain factors in missile defense simulation experiments, the orthogonal design method and uniform design method are referred to fulfill the multifactor and multilevel experiment design. As to the random factors, the number theoretic method is referred to generate uniform sample points. A comparison of the characteristics between the number theoretic method and the traditional Monte-Carlo method is drawn via simulation results, which gives the conclusion that the computation cost is remarkably decreased by using the number theoretic method.
The detection process of BMDS is modeled and the simulation system of detection ability evaluation is developed. In allusion to the detection process against an attacking ballistic missile, the function principles of the satellite, radar, and the C2BMC are analyzed and the simulation models are established. According to the model separation design pattern, the experiment design subsystem, the satellite subsystem, the radar subsystem and the C2BMC subsystem are developed separately based on the simulation management and the support environment. At last, an evaluation flow including experiment design, experiment execution, and result analysis is established.
The simulation experiment and result analysis of the BMDS detection are finished. The orthogonal simulation experiment is executed by taking the detection errors of BMDS satellite and radar as influence factors. The experiment result is disposed by using covariance analysis method, and the influence on the detection ability of BMDS caused by the observation errors of sensors is investigated. Taking the warning radars in BMDS for example, the influence on the detection ability caused by sensor deploying location is researched.
According to the investigation in this dissertation, an evaluation mechanism of BMDS detection ability is initially established. The investigation results are fairly valuable both theoretically and practically, which can be reference to the related research regions.
探测能力指标体系的构建。以典型弹道导弹防御系统的构成与作战流程为例,分析了目标探测过程的信息交互,探讨了表征防御系统探测能力的两大要素。在此基础上,提炼并建立了探测能力指标体系。通过对探测能力影响因素的分析与梳理,确定了影响弹道导弹防御系统探测能力的关键因素。
面向导弹攻防仿真的实验设计方法应用研究。针对导弹攻防仿真实验中的确定型因素,采用正交设计和均匀设计实现多因素多水平的仿真实验设计,研究给出了两种设计方法的设计步骤与结果分析方法。针对服从特定统计分布的随机型因素,引入数论方法以产生均匀散布的抽样点集。通过简单算例,比较了数论方法与传统的Monte Carlo抽样的性能优劣,结果表明,相比Monte Carlo抽样,数论方法可以在保持精度的前提下显著降低计算成本。
防御系统探测过程建模与探测能力评估仿真系统研制。针对防御系统对来袭导弹的预警、捕获、跟踪过程,分别分析了卫星、雷达、总部级C2BMC的工作原理,建立了卫星/雷达目标探测与总部级C2BMC数据处理的功能仿真模型;以仿真管理与支撑环境为底层平台,依据模型隔离的设计模式,完成了探测能力评估仿真系统的总体设计与分系统开发,形成了实验设计、实验运行、结果分析的评估流程。
防御系统探测问题仿真实验与结果分析。以弹道导弹防御系统卫星、雷达的观测误差作为影响因素,开展正交仿真实验,采用方差分析处理实验结果,探讨了传感器观测误差对防御系统探测能力的影响;以预警雷达部署位置作为影响因素,考虑正常部署、前置部署、后置部署以及无预警雷达四种情况,分别开展仿真实验,考察了传感器部署位置对防御系统探测能力的影响。
本文所作的研究初步建立了以探测能力指标体系为依据,以探测能力评估仿真系统为支撑,以基于实验设计理论的目标探测仿真实验为手段的弹道导弹防御系统探测能力评估机制。研究成果具有一定的理论和应用价值,可为相关领域的其它研究提供参考。
The Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) is one of the most significant military forces in 21st century, and the detection ability of BMDS is a key node which plays a vital role in the intercepting process. This dissertation focuses on the subject of detection ability evaluation of BMDS, in which the analysis, modeling and simulation of BMDS detection process are systematically executed. The main results achieved in this dissertation are summarized as follows.
The evaluation indices system of the detection ability is constructed. Contraposing the structure and operation flow of a Classical BMDS, the information communication in the detection process is analyzed. Two important factors which can describe the detection ability of BMDS are discussed. Based on the above investigation, the evaluation indices system of the detection ability is established. In addition, the key factors which have influences on the detection ability of BMDS are determined.
The application of the experiment design method in BMDS simulation is researched. In allusion to the certain factors in missile defense simulation experiments, the orthogonal design method and uniform design method are referred to fulfill the multifactor and multilevel experiment design. As to the random factors, the number theoretic method is referred to generate uniform sample points. A comparison of the characteristics between the number theoretic method and the traditional Monte-Carlo method is drawn via simulation results, which gives the conclusion that the computation cost is remarkably decreased by using the number theoretic method.
The detection process of BMDS is modeled and the simulation system of detection ability evaluation is developed. In allusion to the detection process against an attacking ballistic missile, the function principles of the satellite, radar, and the C2BMC are analyzed and the simulation models are established. According to the model separation design pattern, the experiment design subsystem, the satellite subsystem, the radar subsystem and the C2BMC subsystem are developed separately based on the simulation management and the support environment. At last, an evaluation flow including experiment design, experiment execution, and result analysis is established.
The simulation experiment and result analysis of the BMDS detection are finished. The orthogonal simulation experiment is executed by taking the detection errors of BMDS satellite and radar as influence factors. The experiment result is disposed by using covariance analysis method, and the influence on the detection ability of BMDS caused by the observation errors of sensors is investigated. Taking the warning radars in BMDS for example, the influence on the detection ability caused by sensor deploying location is researched.
According to the investigation in this dissertation, an evaluation mechanism of BMDS detection ability is initially established. The investigation results are fairly valuable both theoretically and practically, which can be reference to the related research regions.
引文
[1]朱锋.弹道导弹防御计划与国际安全[M].上海:上海人民出版社, 2001.
[2] United States Department of Defense. Quadrennial Defense Review Report[R], February 2010.
[3] United States Department of Defense. Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report[R], February 2010.
[4] Mantle P.J. The Missile Defense Equation: Factors for Decision Making. Reston: AIAA, Inc., 2004.
[5]陆伟宁.弹道导弹攻防对抗技术[M].北京:中国宇航出版社, 2007.
[6]杨卫丽,程鲤. 2010年美国弹道导弹防御系统发展现状与趋势[J].现代防御技术. 2011, 4, 39卷2期, 7-11.
[7]张庆波.俄军弹道导弹防御体系建设发展[J].飞航导弹. 2010, 1, 44-48.
[8]浦甲伦,崔乃刚,郭继峰.天基红外预警卫星系统及其探测能力分析[J].现代防御技术. 2008, 8, 36卷4期, 68-72.
[9]陈晓栋.美国海基X波段雷达发展现状[J].现代雷达. 2011, 6, 33卷6期, 29-31.
[10] M.S.Johnston. Analysis of the Survibability of Land Attack Missiles (LAM) [R]. ADA387374.
[11] S.J.Song. Probability Models for Assessing the Value of Battle Damage Assessment in the Defense against Sequential Theater Missile Attacks[R]. ADA311138.
[12]宋湘川,阎理.弹道式导弹作战突防能力及火力需求的分析[J].电光与控制, 2004, 11(1): 15-17.
[13]齐照辉.战略导弹突防效能评估方法及其应用研究[D].国防科技大学博士学位论文, 2006, 10.
[14] Jau-yeu Menq. Discrete Markov ballistic missile defense system modeling [J]. European Journal of Operational Research 2007 (178) 560-578.
[15] Dhaifalla K. Al-Mutairi. Monotonicity and comparability in ballistic missile defense systems [J]. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2011(141) 2191-2200.
[16] J.M.Vannoy. Application of the JANUS Combat Model for Analysis of Alternatives: A Study of the Operational Effectiveness of the Common Missile as Compared to the Hellfire [R]. ADA406066.
[17] K.Coombs, D.Freel. Using Dempster-Shafer Methods for Object Classfication in the Theater Ballistic Missile Environment [R]. ADA392182.
[18] D.R.Cave. Systems Effectiveness Analysis Tool for Evaluating Guided Interceptors[R]. AIAA 94-0210.
[19] E.Walters. The Patriot PAC-3 Missile Program-An Affordable Integration Approach[R]. ADA319957.
[20] Andrew M. Sessler, John M. Cornwall, et al. Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned US National Missile Defense System. Union of Concerned Scientists and MIT Security Studies Program, April 2000.
[21]刘键,陈磊.海基中段弹道导弹防御系统的仿真分析[J].计算机仿真, 2004, 8, 21卷8期, 20-22.
[22]汤绍勋等.面向目标跟踪与探测的天基弹道导弹防御系统仿真[J].系统工程, 2011, 3, 29卷3期, 103-107.
[23]赵锋等.导弹防御雷达仿真系统[J].系统仿真学报, 2006, 5, 18卷5期, 1190-1194.
[24] Dizza Bursztyn. Comparison of designs for computer experiments [J]. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2006 (136) 1103-1119.
[25] Ruichen Jin. An efficient algorithm for constructing optimal design of computer experiments[J]. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2005 (134) 268-287.
[26] Hélcio Vieira Jr. Generating and improving orthogonal designs by using mixed integer programming [J]. European Journal of Operational Research 2011 (215) 629-638.
[27] Peizhong Yang. Fire accident reconstruction based on LES field model by using orthogonal experimental design method [J]. Advances in Engineering Software, 2011 (42) 954-962.
[28]肖杰等.基于仿真的正交试验在对接锁系运动同步性研究中的应用[J].宇航学报, 2008, 11, 29卷6期, 1778-1781.
[29]陈峰,武小悦.基于正交设计的多星测控调度协同进化代表个体选择[J].小型微型计算机系统, 2010, 8, 8期, 1582-1586.
[30]方开泰.均匀设计与均匀设计表[M].北京:科学出版社, 1994.
[31] Jian-Hui Ning. Discrepancy for uniform design of experiments with mixtures [J]. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2011 (141) 1487-1496.
[32]王斯福.均匀设计在目标捕捉仿真中的应用研究[J].系统仿真学报, 2006, 10, 18卷10期, 2725-2729.
[33]薛益新.均匀设计在反舰导弹鉴定试验中的应用方法研究[J].战术导弹技术, 2008, 5, 3, 18-21.
[34] I.M. Sobol. Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates [J]. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 2001 (55)271-280.
[35] M. Marseguerra. First-order differential sensitivity analysis of a nuclear safety system by Monte Carlo simulation [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2005 (90) 162-168.
[36]方开泰,王元.数论方法在统计中的应用[M].北京:科学出版社, 1996.
[37] Borkowski. Uniform Designs for Highly Constrained Mixture Experiments [J]. JOURNAL OF QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, 2009, 41(1), 35-47.
[38]张志芬,柴毅,张兵.基于数论法的跟踪门计算方法研究[J].宇航学报, 2009, 30卷2期, 725-729.
[39]周志革,黄文振,张利.数论方法在统计公差分析中的应用[J].机械工程学报, 2000, 36卷3期, 69-72.
[40]罗小明.弹道导弹攻防对抗的建模与仿真[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2009.
[41]丁鹭飞,耿富录.雷达原理[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社, 2002.
[42] M.I.Skolnik. Radar Handbook [M]. McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1970.
[43]张金槐,蔡洪.飞行器试验统计学[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社, 1995.
[44]刘君,夏志勋.动力学系统辨识与建模[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社, 2007.
[45] A.Gelb, R. S. Warren. Direct Statistical Analysis of Nonlinear Systems: CADET [J]. AIAA Journal, 1973, 11(5).
[46] Taylor. J.H, Price. C.F. Direct Statistical Analysis of Missile Guidance Systems via CADET [M]. The Analytic Sciences Corp., Report No. TR-385-3.
[47]柴华,杏建军,唐国金.基于协方差分析描述函数技术的弹道导弹落点预报[J]. 2011, 4, 37-40.
[48]陈磊等.空间目标轨道力学与误差分析[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2011.
[49]赵选民.试验设计方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 2006.
[50]邱轶兵.试验设计与数据处理[M].合肥:中国科技大学出版社, 2008.
[51]盛骤.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社, 2001.
[52] A. Dubi. Monte Carlo Applications in Systems Engineering [M]. John Wiley&Sons, Inc., 2000.
[53] Wang Yuan, Fang Kaitai. On number-theoretic method in statistics simulation [J]. SCIENCE CHINA, January 2010 Vol. 53 No. 1: 179-186.
[54]刘次华.随机过程[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社, 2008.
[55]梁彦刚.空间信息系统对抗方案评估与决策方法研究[D].国防科技大学博士学位论文, 2009, 3.
[56] Tommer Ender. Systems-of-Systems Analysis of Ballistic Missile Defense Architecture Effectiveness Through Surrogate Modeling and Simulation [J]. IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL, VOL. 4, NO. 2, JUNE 2010.
[57] M.Z.Tidrow. Infrared sensors for ballistic missile defense [J]. Infrared Physics & Technology. 2001 (42), 333-336.
[58]陈晓栋.美国海基X波段雷达发展现状[J].现代雷达, 2011, 33(6), 29-31.
[59]佛显超贾祥瑞林青松.导弹防御系统的X波段雷达能力分析[J].火控雷达技术, 2009, 38(3), 8-12.
[60]刘振浩等.卫星预警探测仿真模型研究[J].指挥控制与仿真, 2010, 6, 32卷3期, 58-62.
[61]陈磊.导弹攻防对抗仿真系统的研究[D].国防科技大学, 2000.
[62] Jack P.C. An overview of the design and analysis of simulation experiments for sensitivity analysis [J]. European Journal of Operational Research. 2005(164) 287-300.
[63] Cheng, R.C.H., Kleijnen, J.P.C., Improved design of simulation experiments with highly heteroskedastic responses [J]. Operations Research. 1999, 47 (5), 762-777.
[64] Hedayat.A.S., Orthogonal Arrays: Theory and Applications[M]. Springer-Verlag, 1999.
[65]陈磊,王海丽,周伯昭.基于UML的仿真系统分析[J].计算机仿真, 2001, 18卷3期: 28-31.
[66] Blaha M. Object-Oriented Modeling and Design with UML [M]. Pearson Education, Inc., 2005.
[67]耿祥义. XML基础教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2006.
[68] David Carlson. Modeling XML Applications with UML [M]. Boston: Addison Wesley, 2001.
[69]贾沛然.远程火箭弹道学[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社, 1993.
[70]李师贤译. C++ Primer中文版[M].北京:人民邮电出版社, 2006.
[2] United States Department of Defense. Quadrennial Defense Review Report[R], February 2010.
[3] United States Department of Defense. Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report[R], February 2010.
[4] Mantle P.J. The Missile Defense Equation: Factors for Decision Making. Reston: AIAA, Inc., 2004.
[5]陆伟宁.弹道导弹攻防对抗技术[M].北京:中国宇航出版社, 2007.
[6]杨卫丽,程鲤. 2010年美国弹道导弹防御系统发展现状与趋势[J].现代防御技术. 2011, 4, 39卷2期, 7-11.
[7]张庆波.俄军弹道导弹防御体系建设发展[J].飞航导弹. 2010, 1, 44-48.
[8]浦甲伦,崔乃刚,郭继峰.天基红外预警卫星系统及其探测能力分析[J].现代防御技术. 2008, 8, 36卷4期, 68-72.
[9]陈晓栋.美国海基X波段雷达发展现状[J].现代雷达. 2011, 6, 33卷6期, 29-31.
[10] M.S.Johnston. Analysis of the Survibability of Land Attack Missiles (LAM) [R]. ADA387374.
[11] S.J.Song. Probability Models for Assessing the Value of Battle Damage Assessment in the Defense against Sequential Theater Missile Attacks[R]. ADA311138.
[12]宋湘川,阎理.弹道式导弹作战突防能力及火力需求的分析[J].电光与控制, 2004, 11(1): 15-17.
[13]齐照辉.战略导弹突防效能评估方法及其应用研究[D].国防科技大学博士学位论文, 2006, 10.
[14] Jau-yeu Menq. Discrete Markov ballistic missile defense system modeling [J]. European Journal of Operational Research 2007 (178) 560-578.
[15] Dhaifalla K. Al-Mutairi. Monotonicity and comparability in ballistic missile defense systems [J]. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2011(141) 2191-2200.
[16] J.M.Vannoy. Application of the JANUS Combat Model for Analysis of Alternatives: A Study of the Operational Effectiveness of the Common Missile as Compared to the Hellfire [R]. ADA406066.
[17] K.Coombs, D.Freel. Using Dempster-Shafer Methods for Object Classfication in the Theater Ballistic Missile Environment [R]. ADA392182.
[18] D.R.Cave. Systems Effectiveness Analysis Tool for Evaluating Guided Interceptors[R]. AIAA 94-0210.
[19] E.Walters. The Patriot PAC-3 Missile Program-An Affordable Integration Approach[R]. ADA319957.
[20] Andrew M. Sessler, John M. Cornwall, et al. Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned US National Missile Defense System. Union of Concerned Scientists and MIT Security Studies Program, April 2000.
[21]刘键,陈磊.海基中段弹道导弹防御系统的仿真分析[J].计算机仿真, 2004, 8, 21卷8期, 20-22.
[22]汤绍勋等.面向目标跟踪与探测的天基弹道导弹防御系统仿真[J].系统工程, 2011, 3, 29卷3期, 103-107.
[23]赵锋等.导弹防御雷达仿真系统[J].系统仿真学报, 2006, 5, 18卷5期, 1190-1194.
[24] Dizza Bursztyn. Comparison of designs for computer experiments [J]. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2006 (136) 1103-1119.
[25] Ruichen Jin. An efficient algorithm for constructing optimal design of computer experiments[J]. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2005 (134) 268-287.
[26] Hélcio Vieira Jr. Generating and improving orthogonal designs by using mixed integer programming [J]. European Journal of Operational Research 2011 (215) 629-638.
[27] Peizhong Yang. Fire accident reconstruction based on LES field model by using orthogonal experimental design method [J]. Advances in Engineering Software, 2011 (42) 954-962.
[28]肖杰等.基于仿真的正交试验在对接锁系运动同步性研究中的应用[J].宇航学报, 2008, 11, 29卷6期, 1778-1781.
[29]陈峰,武小悦.基于正交设计的多星测控调度协同进化代表个体选择[J].小型微型计算机系统, 2010, 8, 8期, 1582-1586.
[30]方开泰.均匀设计与均匀设计表[M].北京:科学出版社, 1994.
[31] Jian-Hui Ning. Discrepancy for uniform design of experiments with mixtures [J]. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2011 (141) 1487-1496.
[32]王斯福.均匀设计在目标捕捉仿真中的应用研究[J].系统仿真学报, 2006, 10, 18卷10期, 2725-2729.
[33]薛益新.均匀设计在反舰导弹鉴定试验中的应用方法研究[J].战术导弹技术, 2008, 5, 3, 18-21.
[34] I.M. Sobol. Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates [J]. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 2001 (55)271-280.
[35] M. Marseguerra. First-order differential sensitivity analysis of a nuclear safety system by Monte Carlo simulation [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2005 (90) 162-168.
[36]方开泰,王元.数论方法在统计中的应用[M].北京:科学出版社, 1996.
[37] Borkowski. Uniform Designs for Highly Constrained Mixture Experiments [J]. JOURNAL OF QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, 2009, 41(1), 35-47.
[38]张志芬,柴毅,张兵.基于数论法的跟踪门计算方法研究[J].宇航学报, 2009, 30卷2期, 725-729.
[39]周志革,黄文振,张利.数论方法在统计公差分析中的应用[J].机械工程学报, 2000, 36卷3期, 69-72.
[40]罗小明.弹道导弹攻防对抗的建模与仿真[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2009.
[41]丁鹭飞,耿富录.雷达原理[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社, 2002.
[42] M.I.Skolnik. Radar Handbook [M]. McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1970.
[43]张金槐,蔡洪.飞行器试验统计学[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社, 1995.
[44]刘君,夏志勋.动力学系统辨识与建模[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社, 2007.
[45] A.Gelb, R. S. Warren. Direct Statistical Analysis of Nonlinear Systems: CADET [J]. AIAA Journal, 1973, 11(5).
[46] Taylor. J.H, Price. C.F. Direct Statistical Analysis of Missile Guidance Systems via CADET [M]. The Analytic Sciences Corp., Report No. TR-385-3.
[47]柴华,杏建军,唐国金.基于协方差分析描述函数技术的弹道导弹落点预报[J]. 2011, 4, 37-40.
[48]陈磊等.空间目标轨道力学与误差分析[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2011.
[49]赵选民.试验设计方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 2006.
[50]邱轶兵.试验设计与数据处理[M].合肥:中国科技大学出版社, 2008.
[51]盛骤.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社, 2001.
[52] A. Dubi. Monte Carlo Applications in Systems Engineering [M]. John Wiley&Sons, Inc., 2000.
[53] Wang Yuan, Fang Kaitai. On number-theoretic method in statistics simulation [J]. SCIENCE CHINA, January 2010 Vol. 53 No. 1: 179-186.
[54]刘次华.随机过程[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社, 2008.
[55]梁彦刚.空间信息系统对抗方案评估与决策方法研究[D].国防科技大学博士学位论文, 2009, 3.
[56] Tommer Ender. Systems-of-Systems Analysis of Ballistic Missile Defense Architecture Effectiveness Through Surrogate Modeling and Simulation [J]. IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL, VOL. 4, NO. 2, JUNE 2010.
[57] M.Z.Tidrow. Infrared sensors for ballistic missile defense [J]. Infrared Physics & Technology. 2001 (42), 333-336.
[58]陈晓栋.美国海基X波段雷达发展现状[J].现代雷达, 2011, 33(6), 29-31.
[59]佛显超贾祥瑞林青松.导弹防御系统的X波段雷达能力分析[J].火控雷达技术, 2009, 38(3), 8-12.
[60]刘振浩等.卫星预警探测仿真模型研究[J].指挥控制与仿真, 2010, 6, 32卷3期, 58-62.
[61]陈磊.导弹攻防对抗仿真系统的研究[D].国防科技大学, 2000.
[62] Jack P.C. An overview of the design and analysis of simulation experiments for sensitivity analysis [J]. European Journal of Operational Research. 2005(164) 287-300.
[63] Cheng, R.C.H., Kleijnen, J.P.C., Improved design of simulation experiments with highly heteroskedastic responses [J]. Operations Research. 1999, 47 (5), 762-777.
[64] Hedayat.A.S., Orthogonal Arrays: Theory and Applications[M]. Springer-Verlag, 1999.
[65]陈磊,王海丽,周伯昭.基于UML的仿真系统分析[J].计算机仿真, 2001, 18卷3期: 28-31.
[66] Blaha M. Object-Oriented Modeling and Design with UML [M]. Pearson Education, Inc., 2005.
[67]耿祥义. XML基础教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2006.
[68] David Carlson. Modeling XML Applications with UML [M]. Boston: Addison Wesley, 2001.
[69]贾沛然.远程火箭弹道学[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社, 1993.
[70]李师贤译. C++ Primer中文版[M].北京:人民邮电出版社, 2006.