财务报表分析的可靠性研究
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摘要
财务报表分析是经济组织对其经营事项及财务健康状况进行剖析的行为。长期以来，由于诸多因素的影响，使得财务报表分析的可靠性受到了人们的质疑。本论文从七个方面对报表分析的可靠性进行了探索性研究。
首先，介绍了本文的选题背景，提出了财务报表的“可靠性”不等于“真实性”的观点。
其次，本文从影响报表可靠性的会计系统出发，探讨了会计系统面临的外部与内部的不确定性，分析和拓展了历史成本下的会计假设，同时，探讨了会计政策的选择、使用、以及会计政策的改变对报表分析可靠性的影响，并对存货计价方法的改变的会计处理提出了自己的观点。
第三，从会计处理实务的角度出发，提出了客观存在的商誉问题、商标评估问题，但根据会计原则，却无法确定和计量，这也使会计报表的可靠性受到影响。
第四，在对会计实务中关联方分析过程中，提出了关联交易是上市公司包装利润的重要手段，并针对关联交易显失公平的价格计入资本公积的会计处理提出了自己的看法。
第五，在分析了会计系统和会计处理实务后，本文对上市公司发行股票时需提交的盈利预测报表进行了分析，并以红光事件的盈利预测为例，揭示了盈利预测的不确定性及规避策略。
第六，从财务比率分析的角度进行了较深入的分析，提出了有些比率指标需要根据其他数据来修正，并以刘姝威分析蓝田股份为例提出了自己的看法。
最后，以美国世通公司为例对作假行为进行了剖析，探讨了报表分析的诚信建设的具体做法。
The analysis of financial statements is a kind of conduct that economy organizations analyse their operation business and financial health conditions. Since a long time past,,because of the influence of many factors ,the credibility of the financial statements analysis has been questioned. The paper researches the credibility of the financial statements analysis in seven aspects.
First,the paper introduces the background of chooseing the topic and puts forward the views that the credibility of the financial statements is not equal to the truthfulness.
Secondly,as this paper begins with the accounting system which influences the credibility of financial statements,it discusses the interal uncertainty and the external uncertainty which the accounting system confronts. The paper analyses and develops the accounting assumptions of the historial cost. Meamwhile,this paper analyses the influence on the credibility of financial statements from the aspect of the choices > useness of the accounting strategy and from the aspect of the change of accounting strategy .What is more,this paper puts forward its views in the accounting method of the change of the inventory valuation method.
The third,the paper puts forward the trademark and the goodwill questions which objectly exist from the point of the view of the reality of accounting dispositions .However, according to the principle of accounting ,it can not be confirmed or measured. The makes the credibility of financial statements to be influenced.
The fourth,during the relationship analysis of the accounting reality, the paper puts forward that the relationship transaction is the important ways which the listed companys justify the profit .Meamwhile,the paper analyses the accounting disposition principle that the prices which is abvious unfare in the relationship transaction are accounted as the capital surplus.As a result,the paper puts forward itself views
The fifth, after the paper analyses the accounting system and the reality of the accounting disposition, the paper analyses the statements of forecasting the profit
which should be submitted when the listed companys issue stocks. The paper analyses the statements of forcasting the profit in the hongguang event and reveals the uncertain.
The sixth, After this paper goes deep into analyzing the financial ratios ,it puts forward that some financial ratios indexs want to be revised by other data. The paper takes it a example that Liu Shuwei's analysis of the blueland share and puts forward its different views.
Finally, this paper sets the America world telegram corporation a example and ananlyses the false conducts. As a result ,it discusses some the concrete ways of the sincerity construction which influences the financial statements.
首先，介绍了本文的选题背景，提出了财务报表的“可靠性”不等于“真实性”的观点。
其次，本文从影响报表可靠性的会计系统出发，探讨了会计系统面临的外部与内部的不确定性，分析和拓展了历史成本下的会计假设，同时，探讨了会计政策的选择、使用、以及会计政策的改变对报表分析可靠性的影响，并对存货计价方法的改变的会计处理提出了自己的观点。
第三，从会计处理实务的角度出发，提出了客观存在的商誉问题、商标评估问题，但根据会计原则，却无法确定和计量，这也使会计报表的可靠性受到影响。
第四，在对会计实务中关联方分析过程中，提出了关联交易是上市公司包装利润的重要手段，并针对关联交易显失公平的价格计入资本公积的会计处理提出了自己的看法。
第五，在分析了会计系统和会计处理实务后，本文对上市公司发行股票时需提交的盈利预测报表进行了分析，并以红光事件的盈利预测为例，揭示了盈利预测的不确定性及规避策略。
第六，从财务比率分析的角度进行了较深入的分析，提出了有些比率指标需要根据其他数据来修正，并以刘姝威分析蓝田股份为例提出了自己的看法。
最后，以美国世通公司为例对作假行为进行了剖析，探讨了报表分析的诚信建设的具体做法。
The analysis of financial statements is a kind of conduct that economy organizations analyse their operation business and financial health conditions. Since a long time past,,because of the influence of many factors ,the credibility of the financial statements analysis has been questioned. The paper researches the credibility of the financial statements analysis in seven aspects.
First,the paper introduces the background of chooseing the topic and puts forward the views that the credibility of the financial statements is not equal to the truthfulness.
Secondly,as this paper begins with the accounting system which influences the credibility of financial statements,it discusses the interal uncertainty and the external uncertainty which the accounting system confronts. The paper analyses and develops the accounting assumptions of the historial cost. Meamwhile,this paper analyses the influence on the credibility of financial statements from the aspect of the choices > useness of the accounting strategy and from the aspect of the change of accounting strategy .What is more,this paper puts forward its views in the accounting method of the change of the inventory valuation method.
The third,the paper puts forward the trademark and the goodwill questions which objectly exist from the point of the view of the reality of accounting dispositions .However, according to the principle of accounting ,it can not be confirmed or measured. The makes the credibility of financial statements to be influenced.
The fourth,during the relationship analysis of the accounting reality, the paper puts forward that the relationship transaction is the important ways which the listed companys justify the profit .Meamwhile,the paper analyses the accounting disposition principle that the prices which is abvious unfare in the relationship transaction are accounted as the capital surplus.As a result,the paper puts forward itself views
The fifth, after the paper analyses the accounting system and the reality of the accounting disposition, the paper analyses the statements of forecasting the profit
which should be submitted when the listed companys issue stocks. The paper analyses the statements of forcasting the profit in the hongguang event and reveals the uncertain.
The sixth, After this paper goes deep into analyzing the financial ratios ,it puts forward that some financial ratios indexs want to be revised by other data. The paper takes it a example that Liu Shuwei's analysis of the blueland share and puts forward its different views.
Finally, this paper sets the America world telegram corporation a example and ananlyses the false conducts. As a result ,it discusses some the concrete ways of the sincerity construction which influences the financial statements.
引文
1、李心合作《财务会计理论创新与发展》
2、吴水澎主编 陈汉文 谢德仁副主编《中国会计理论研究》
3、林斌作《论不确定性会计》
4、韩传模 郝景昭著《会计职业道德的失范与重塑》
5、许阳全《会计行业诚信危机原因及对策》 《会计之友》2002年7月
6、张虹《对盈余管理和利润操纵的分析与思考》 《会计之友》2002年7月
7、万继峰 李静、孟成竞《由世通会计造假案分析会计腐败的原因及对策》《会计之友》2002年9月
8、程莲萍《会计行业呼唤诚信建设》 《会计之友》2002年9月
9、刘胜华《新市盈率概念》 《证券投资—上市公司研究》
10、李想《市盈率可靠吗》 《证券投资—上市公司研究》
11、刘姝威《上市公司虚假会计报表识别技术》
12、蒋义宏《会计信息失真的现状成因与对策研究—上市公司利润操纵实证研究》
13、刘平生 文实主编《会计信息失真查处300例》
14、张先治、陈友邦：《财务分析学》，东北财经大学出版社，1995年版
15、罗福凯：《企业财务管理》，青岛海洋出版社，1997年版。
16、郭惠云、刘兴云：《公司财务分析》，上海财经大学出版社，1997年版。
17、戴德明，谢德平 《财务会计学》 中国人民大学出版社，1994
18、陈锦福译 《财务报表分析》中国财政经济出版社，1993
19、张为国：《会计目的与会计改革》，中国财政经济出版社1991年版。
20、徐宗宇：《上市公司盈利预测可靠性的实证研究》，上海三联书店出版社2000年12月版。
21、魏明海：《盈余管理基本理论及其研究述评》，《会计研究》2000年第9期
22、汤云为、钱逢胜：《会计理论》、上海财经大学出版社1997年版。
23、William R.Scott, 《Financial Accounting Theory》, Prentice Hall.
24、Watts, R.I. ,and J.L. Zimmerman, 《Positive Accounting Theory》, Prentice Hall, 1986.
25、Burgstahler, D., and Ilia Dichev, "Earnings Management to Avoid Earnings Decreases and losses", Journal of Accounting and Economis, 1997.
26、Arthur Levitt Jr; "the Number Game", the CPA Journal, New York, volume 68, 1998.
27、Gerald I White、Ashwinpaul C.Sondhi, Dov Fried. 《The Analysis and Use of Financial Staements》, 1997.
28、George C.Philippatos, William W.Sihler: Financial Management, Allyn and Bacon, 1991
29、Carol E.Dilworth, Joan E.D.Conrod: Canadian Cases in Financial Accounting, Richard D.Irwin, INC., 1993
30、IASC. Intrnational Accounting Standards. 1994.
31、Kieso and Weygandt. Intermediate Accounting. WILEY (U.S), 1983
32、Leonard Lorensen. Accounting for Liability. AICPA, 1992.
2、吴水澎主编 陈汉文 谢德仁副主编《中国会计理论研究》
3、林斌作《论不确定性会计》
4、韩传模 郝景昭著《会计职业道德的失范与重塑》
5、许阳全《会计行业诚信危机原因及对策》 《会计之友》2002年7月
6、张虹《对盈余管理和利润操纵的分析与思考》 《会计之友》2002年7月
7、万继峰 李静、孟成竞《由世通会计造假案分析会计腐败的原因及对策》《会计之友》2002年9月
8、程莲萍《会计行业呼唤诚信建设》 《会计之友》2002年9月
9、刘胜华《新市盈率概念》 《证券投资—上市公司研究》
10、李想《市盈率可靠吗》 《证券投资—上市公司研究》
11、刘姝威《上市公司虚假会计报表识别技术》
12、蒋义宏《会计信息失真的现状成因与对策研究—上市公司利润操纵实证研究》
13、刘平生 文实主编《会计信息失真查处300例》
14、张先治、陈友邦：《财务分析学》，东北财经大学出版社，1995年版
15、罗福凯：《企业财务管理》，青岛海洋出版社，1997年版。
16、郭惠云、刘兴云：《公司财务分析》，上海财经大学出版社，1997年版。
17、戴德明，谢德平 《财务会计学》 中国人民大学出版社，1994
18、陈锦福译 《财务报表分析》中国财政经济出版社，1993
19、张为国：《会计目的与会计改革》，中国财政经济出版社1991年版。
20、徐宗宇：《上市公司盈利预测可靠性的实证研究》，上海三联书店出版社2000年12月版。
21、魏明海：《盈余管理基本理论及其研究述评》，《会计研究》2000年第9期
22、汤云为、钱逢胜：《会计理论》、上海财经大学出版社1997年版。
23、William R.Scott, 《Financial Accounting Theory》, Prentice Hall.
24、Watts, R.I. ,and J.L. Zimmerman, 《Positive Accounting Theory》, Prentice Hall, 1986.
25、Burgstahler, D., and Ilia Dichev, "Earnings Management to Avoid Earnings Decreases and losses", Journal of Accounting and Economis, 1997.
26、Arthur Levitt Jr; "the Number Game", the CPA Journal, New York, volume 68, 1998.
27、Gerald I White、Ashwinpaul C.Sondhi, Dov Fried. 《The Analysis and Use of Financial Staements》, 1997.
28、George C.Philippatos, William W.Sihler: Financial Management, Allyn and Bacon, 1991
29、Carol E.Dilworth, Joan E.D.Conrod: Canadian Cases in Financial Accounting, Richard D.Irwin, INC., 1993
30、IASC. Intrnational Accounting Standards. 1994.
31、Kieso and Weygandt. Intermediate Accounting. WILEY (U.S), 1983
32、Leonard Lorensen. Accounting for Liability. AICPA, 1992.