企业客户生命周期价值模型及应用研究
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摘要
近年来兴起的客户关系管理(CRM)迎合了全球经济的市场环境变化与发展，其理论和方法越来越受到企业的普遍关注，成为新时代企业制胜的杀手锏，也成为企业管理决策研究和管理信息系统应用的持续热点。客户生命周期价值(CLV)是CRM中的一个核心概念，是当前国内外CRM研究的一个重要分支。对客户生命周期价值进行分析是企业正确区分客户、有效分配企业资源，进而为企业赢得更高回报的前提，也是保证企业正确有效地实施CRM战略的基础和核心。因此，企业对客户生命周期价值进行有效的评价，用科学的方法通过维持与客户的长期关系来获得最大的客户生命周期价值，从而为企业的持续发展带来竞争优势，是每个企业亟待解决的问题。
鉴于此，本文针对国内外的研究现状以及国内企业的发展状况，在CRM背景下，以客户全生命周期管理为初衷，对客户生命周期价值领域当前研究的最新进展和难点展开探讨，旨在进一步推动企业客户关系管理策略的研究和完善CRM系统中决策功能的研发。本文首先分析了包括客户关系管理理论、客户生命周期理论以及客户价值理论在内的客户生命周期价值的相关理论基础。然后在此理论基础上对现有的客户生命周期价值定量计算方法进行完善和改进，从客户利润参数、动态客户保持率和客户生命周期时间因子三个主要方面进行研究，并提出扩展后更完整的客户生命周期价值模型，使其更具可操作性。随后分别对模型参数确定方法进行具体实例分析以论证其有效性。最后对客户生命周期价值建模进行应用分析，并提出相应的策略，以期更好的指导我国企业的客户关系管理实践。
As a new management mode, Customer relationship management (CRM) caters for the change and development of market in the new economic environment. Its theory and method can direct enterprises to adjust their customer relationship well, so more and more enterprises pay much attention to it. Customer lifetime value (CLV) is the key concept within CRM and it has become a main study area of CRM. Enterprises can identify different rank of customers and allocate their resources to different customers properly through evaluating customer lifetime value, and then gain more profit from valuable customers so as to develop their competence in competition. So how to maintain the long-term relationship between enterprises and customers efficiently and maximize customer lifetime value are the problems urgently waiting to be solved for enterprises.
For the reasons above mentioned, based on the present study status on CLV, from the perspective of enterprises, this paper discusses the evolvement and difficulties of CLV study in order to facilitate the study on customer relationship management strategies and the development of decision support system in CRM software. At first, the paper illustrates the theory framework correlated with CLV, including CRM theory, customer lifecycle theory and customer value theory. Then based on these theories, the paper puts forward the improved means to define the main parameters in CLV model, that is, customer value parameter, dynamic customer retention rate and customer lifecycle time factor. And then an expanded CLV model is presented. Afterwards, several instances correlated with parameters of CLV model are showed. At last, the paper discusses the applications of CLV theory and model in customer relationship management and brings forward some relevant strategies to direct the CRM practice of Chinese enterprises.
鉴于此，本文针对国内外的研究现状以及国内企业的发展状况，在CRM背景下，以客户全生命周期管理为初衷，对客户生命周期价值领域当前研究的最新进展和难点展开探讨，旨在进一步推动企业客户关系管理策略的研究和完善CRM系统中决策功能的研发。本文首先分析了包括客户关系管理理论、客户生命周期理论以及客户价值理论在内的客户生命周期价值的相关理论基础。然后在此理论基础上对现有的客户生命周期价值定量计算方法进行完善和改进，从客户利润参数、动态客户保持率和客户生命周期时间因子三个主要方面进行研究，并提出扩展后更完整的客户生命周期价值模型，使其更具可操作性。随后分别对模型参数确定方法进行具体实例分析以论证其有效性。最后对客户生命周期价值建模进行应用分析，并提出相应的策略，以期更好的指导我国企业的客户关系管理实践。
As a new management mode, Customer relationship management (CRM) caters for the change and development of market in the new economic environment. Its theory and method can direct enterprises to adjust their customer relationship well, so more and more enterprises pay much attention to it. Customer lifetime value (CLV) is the key concept within CRM and it has become a main study area of CRM. Enterprises can identify different rank of customers and allocate their resources to different customers properly through evaluating customer lifetime value, and then gain more profit from valuable customers so as to develop their competence in competition. So how to maintain the long-term relationship between enterprises and customers efficiently and maximize customer lifetime value are the problems urgently waiting to be solved for enterprises.
For the reasons above mentioned, based on the present study status on CLV, from the perspective of enterprises, this paper discusses the evolvement and difficulties of CLV study in order to facilitate the study on customer relationship management strategies and the development of decision support system in CRM software. At first, the paper illustrates the theory framework correlated with CLV, including CRM theory, customer lifecycle theory and customer value theory. Then based on these theories, the paper puts forward the improved means to define the main parameters in CLV model, that is, customer value parameter, dynamic customer retention rate and customer lifecycle time factor. And then an expanded CLV model is presented. Afterwards, several instances correlated with parameters of CLV model are showed. At last, the paper discusses the applications of CLV theory and model in customer relationship management and brings forward some relevant strategies to direct the CRM practice of Chinese enterprises.
引文
[1] 齐佳音，韩新民，李怀祖．我国客户关系管理研究的紧迫性和方向分析．管理科学学报，2002，5(4)：88-94
[2] 田同生．客户关系管理的中国之路．北京：机械工业出版社，2001
[3] 王玮彦．顾客终身价值在CRM绩效管理中的作用．商业研究，2002，(16)：20-23
[4] 齐佳音，韩新民，李怀祖．客户关系管理的管理学探讨．管理工程学报，2002，16(3)：31-33
[5] Janny Hoekstra, Eelko Huizingh. Lifetime value concept in customerbased marketing. Journal of Market Focused Management, 1999,(3): 257-274
[6] Bas Donkers, Peter Verhoef, Martijn Jong. Predicting customer lifetime value in multi-service. Erasmus Research Institute of Management Working paper, May 28,2003
[7] Julian Villanueva, Yuxing Du. Customer relationship management: customer behavior, organizational challenges and econometric models. In: Customer Relationship Management: Customer Behavior, Organizational Challenges and Econometric Models. Durham, North Carolina, 2002
[8] Mudambi S, Rosalie O. Customer lifetime value:a guide for the industrial management. Temple University Working Paper, December 13,2001
[9] Dipak Jain, Siddhartha Singh. Customer lifetime value research in marketing: a review and future directions. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 2002,16(2): 34-46
[10] Dwyer F Robert. Customer lifetime valuation to support marketing decision making. Journal of Direct Marketing, 1997,11(4): 6-13
[11] 汪涛，徐岚．经营顾客资产．经济管理，2001，(20)：39-42
[12] 汪涛，徐岚．顾客资产的构成与测量．经济管理，2002，(24)：48-52
[13] Paul D Berger, Nada I Nasr. Customer lifetime value: marketing models and applications. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 1998,12(1): 17-30
[14] 罗伯特·韦兰，保罗·科尔．走进客户的心．北京：经济日报出版社，1998
[15] 胡左浩，郑兆红．顾客生涯价值概念及其对CRM的启示，外国经济与管理，2001，23(4)：43-48
[16] 陈明亮．客户生命周期利润变化趋势的实证研究．统计研究，2002，(6)：40-44
[17] 弗雷德里克·莱希赫尔德．忠诚的价值：增长、利润与持久价值背后的力量．北京：华夏出版社，2001
[18] 田同生．CRM中的管理理念．电子商务技术，2001，(2)：24-26
[19] Don Peppers, Martha Rogers, et al. Is your company ready for one to one marketing. Harvard Business Review, 1999,(January-February): 151-160
[20] 杨琴．CRM营销时代．中外管理，2000，(8)：69-71
[21] 齐佳音，李怀祖，吴建林．客户关系管理辨析．工业工程，2002，5(4)：21-25
[22] 樊治平，王建宇，陈媛．客户关系管理(CRM)的评述与展望．系统工程，2002，20(6)：1—8
[23] Jon Anton. The past, present and future of customer access centers. International Journal of Service Industry Management, 2000,11(2): 120-130
[24] 王广宇．客户关系管理(CRM)．北京：经济管理出版社，2001
[25] 王海艳，施福莱．CRM的价值链过程．科学管理研究，2001，19(5)：35-38
[26] 范应仁．基于CRM的客户资产管理问题研究．数量经济技术经济研究，2003，(4)：109-112
[27] Tomas Bayon, Jens Gutsche, Hans Bauer. Customer equity marketing: touching the intangible. European Management Journal, 2002,20(3): 213-222
[28] 汪涛，徐岚．顾客资产与竞争优势．中国软科学，2002，(1)：52-56
[29] 汪涛，徐岚．新营销理论的发展与整合．商业经济与管理，2002，(2)：20-23
[30] 周洁如．客户关系管理中的价值创造研究．上海管理科学，2003，(4)：55-56
[31] Van De Yen, Andrew H Poole, Marshall Scott. Explaining development and changes in organizations. Academy of Management Review, 1995, 20(July): 510-540
[32] 陈明亮．客户生命周期模式研究．浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)，2002，32(6)：66-72
[33] Locobucci Dawn, Zerrillo Philip. The relationship life cycle. Research
in Marketing, 1997,13(1): 47-68.
[34]Dwyer F Robert, Schurr, Paul H. Developing buyer-seller relations. Journal of Marketing, 1987,51 (April): 11-28.
[35]Morgan, Robert M, Shelly Hunt. The commitment-trust theory of relationship marketing. Journal of Marketing, 1994,58(July): 20-38
[36]郭磊，崔迅．不确定性、资产专用性和服务业中关系导向的营销战略．经济师，2002，(1)：198-199
[37]连新田．浅谈生命周期与客户关系生命周期．经济师，2002，(4)：231-232
[38]Jap Sandy D, Ganesan, Shankar. Control mechanisms and the relationship life cycle: implications for safeguarding specific investments and developing commitment. Journal of Marketing Research, 2000,37(2): 227-245
[39]Lynette Ryals. Are your customers worth more than money. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 2002, 9(5) 241-251
[40]George Evans. Measure and managing customer value. Work Study, 2002, 51 (3): 134-139
[41]王爱玲，张晓帆，张东生．客户价值的综合评价．河北省科学院学报，2002，19(1)：47-51
[42]郑称德．解析客户价值管理．科技进步与对策，2002，19(9)：84-86
[43]王素芬，汤兵勇．客户终生价值分析．东华大学学报(社会科学版)，2002，2(2)：32-34
[44]Reichheld F F, Sasser W E. Zero defections: quality comes to services. Harvard Business Review, 1990, (September-October): 105-111
[45]Reichheld F F. The loyalty effect——the relationship between loyalty and profits. European Business Journal, 2000,12(3): 173-179.
[46]陈明亮．基于全生命周期利润的客户细分方法．经济管理，2002，(20)：42-46
[47]ELISA LEE．生存数据分析的统计方法(第二版)．北京：中国统计出版社，1998
[48]Lawless J F．寿命数据中的统计模型与方法．北京：中国统计出版社，1998
[49]张晋生．商业银行零售业务．北京：中国经济出版社，2000
[50]Simon Knox. Loyalty-based segmentation and the customer development process. European Management Journal, 1998,16(6): 729-737
[51]安实，赵泽斌，鞠晓峰．客户关系管理机理分析．企业经济，2001，(9)：61-62
[52]杨永恒，王永贵，钟旭东．客户关系管理的内涵、驱动因素及成长维度．南开管理评论，2002，(2)：48-52
[53]Peter Verhoef and Bas Donkers. Predicting customer potential value an application in the insurance industry. Decision Support Systems, 2001, 32(2):189-199
[54]Blattberg R C. Managing the firm using lifetime-customer value. Chain Store Age, 1998,(January):46-49
[55]Ganesan, Shankar. Determinants of long-term orientation in buyerseller relationships. Journal of Marketing, 1994,58(2): 1-19
[56]Blattberg R, Deighton J. Manage marketing by the customer equity test. Harvard Business Review, 1996,(July-August):136-144
[57]朱爱群．客户关系管理与数据挖掘．北京：中国财政经济出版社，2001
[58]余军合，吴昭同．客户关系管理．企业管理信息化，2000，(12)：8-10
[59]李海明，吴建林，张雷．分析型CRM的软件体系结构．计算机工程与应用，2002，(5)：110-112
[60]潘伟．CRM系统在企业网络营销中的作用．中国流通经济，2001，(2)：40-43
[2] 田同生．客户关系管理的中国之路．北京：机械工业出版社，2001
[3] 王玮彦．顾客终身价值在CRM绩效管理中的作用．商业研究，2002，(16)：20-23
[4] 齐佳音，韩新民，李怀祖．客户关系管理的管理学探讨．管理工程学报，2002，16(3)：31-33
[5] Janny Hoekstra, Eelko Huizingh. Lifetime value concept in customerbased marketing. Journal of Market Focused Management, 1999,(3): 257-274
[6] Bas Donkers, Peter Verhoef, Martijn Jong. Predicting customer lifetime value in multi-service. Erasmus Research Institute of Management Working paper, May 28,2003
[7] Julian Villanueva, Yuxing Du. Customer relationship management: customer behavior, organizational challenges and econometric models. In: Customer Relationship Management: Customer Behavior, Organizational Challenges and Econometric Models. Durham, North Carolina, 2002
[8] Mudambi S, Rosalie O. Customer lifetime value:a guide for the industrial management. Temple University Working Paper, December 13,2001
[9] Dipak Jain, Siddhartha Singh. Customer lifetime value research in marketing: a review and future directions. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 2002,16(2): 34-46
[10] Dwyer F Robert. Customer lifetime valuation to support marketing decision making. Journal of Direct Marketing, 1997,11(4): 6-13
[11] 汪涛，徐岚．经营顾客资产．经济管理，2001，(20)：39-42
[12] 汪涛，徐岚．顾客资产的构成与测量．经济管理，2002，(24)：48-52
[13] Paul D Berger, Nada I Nasr. Customer lifetime value: marketing models and applications. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 1998,12(1): 17-30
[14] 罗伯特·韦兰，保罗·科尔．走进客户的心．北京：经济日报出版社，1998
[15] 胡左浩，郑兆红．顾客生涯价值概念及其对CRM的启示，外国经济与管理，2001，23(4)：43-48
[16] 陈明亮．客户生命周期利润变化趋势的实证研究．统计研究，2002，(6)：40-44
[17] 弗雷德里克·莱希赫尔德．忠诚的价值：增长、利润与持久价值背后的力量．北京：华夏出版社，2001
[18] 田同生．CRM中的管理理念．电子商务技术，2001，(2)：24-26
[19] Don Peppers, Martha Rogers, et al. Is your company ready for one to one marketing. Harvard Business Review, 1999,(January-February): 151-160
[20] 杨琴．CRM营销时代．中外管理，2000，(8)：69-71
[21] 齐佳音，李怀祖，吴建林．客户关系管理辨析．工业工程，2002，5(4)：21-25
[22] 樊治平，王建宇，陈媛．客户关系管理(CRM)的评述与展望．系统工程，2002，20(6)：1—8
[23] Jon Anton. The past, present and future of customer access centers. International Journal of Service Industry Management, 2000,11(2): 120-130
[24] 王广宇．客户关系管理(CRM)．北京：经济管理出版社，2001
[25] 王海艳，施福莱．CRM的价值链过程．科学管理研究，2001，19(5)：35-38
[26] 范应仁．基于CRM的客户资产管理问题研究．数量经济技术经济研究，2003，(4)：109-112
[27] Tomas Bayon, Jens Gutsche, Hans Bauer. Customer equity marketing: touching the intangible. European Management Journal, 2002,20(3): 213-222
[28] 汪涛，徐岚．顾客资产与竞争优势．中国软科学，2002，(1)：52-56
[29] 汪涛，徐岚．新营销理论的发展与整合．商业经济与管理，2002，(2)：20-23
[30] 周洁如．客户关系管理中的价值创造研究．上海管理科学，2003，(4)：55-56
[31] Van De Yen, Andrew H Poole, Marshall Scott. Explaining development and changes in organizations. Academy of Management Review, 1995, 20(July): 510-540
[32] 陈明亮．客户生命周期模式研究．浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)，2002，32(6)：66-72
[33] Locobucci Dawn, Zerrillo Philip. The relationship life cycle. Research
in Marketing, 1997,13(1): 47-68.
[34]Dwyer F Robert, Schurr, Paul H. Developing buyer-seller relations. Journal of Marketing, 1987,51 (April): 11-28.
[35]Morgan, Robert M, Shelly Hunt. The commitment-trust theory of relationship marketing. Journal of Marketing, 1994,58(July): 20-38
[36]郭磊，崔迅．不确定性、资产专用性和服务业中关系导向的营销战略．经济师，2002，(1)：198-199
[37]连新田．浅谈生命周期与客户关系生命周期．经济师，2002，(4)：231-232
[38]Jap Sandy D, Ganesan, Shankar. Control mechanisms and the relationship life cycle: implications for safeguarding specific investments and developing commitment. Journal of Marketing Research, 2000,37(2): 227-245
[39]Lynette Ryals. Are your customers worth more than money. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 2002, 9(5) 241-251
[40]George Evans. Measure and managing customer value. Work Study, 2002, 51 (3): 134-139
[41]王爱玲，张晓帆，张东生．客户价值的综合评价．河北省科学院学报，2002，19(1)：47-51
[42]郑称德．解析客户价值管理．科技进步与对策，2002，19(9)：84-86
[43]王素芬，汤兵勇．客户终生价值分析．东华大学学报(社会科学版)，2002，2(2)：32-34
[44]Reichheld F F, Sasser W E. Zero defections: quality comes to services. Harvard Business Review, 1990, (September-October): 105-111
[45]Reichheld F F. The loyalty effect——the relationship between loyalty and profits. European Business Journal, 2000,12(3): 173-179.
[46]陈明亮．基于全生命周期利润的客户细分方法．经济管理，2002，(20)：42-46
[47]ELISA LEE．生存数据分析的统计方法(第二版)．北京：中国统计出版社，1998
[48]Lawless J F．寿命数据中的统计模型与方法．北京：中国统计出版社，1998
[49]张晋生．商业银行零售业务．北京：中国经济出版社，2000
[50]Simon Knox. Loyalty-based segmentation and the customer development process. European Management Journal, 1998,16(6): 729-737
[51]安实，赵泽斌，鞠晓峰．客户关系管理机理分析．企业经济，2001，(9)：61-62
[52]杨永恒，王永贵，钟旭东．客户关系管理的内涵、驱动因素及成长维度．南开管理评论，2002，(2)：48-52
[53]Peter Verhoef and Bas Donkers. Predicting customer potential value an application in the insurance industry. Decision Support Systems, 2001, 32(2):189-199
[54]Blattberg R C. Managing the firm using lifetime-customer value. Chain Store Age, 1998,(January):46-49
[55]Ganesan, Shankar. Determinants of long-term orientation in buyerseller relationships. Journal of Marketing, 1994,58(2): 1-19
[56]Blattberg R, Deighton J. Manage marketing by the customer equity test. Harvard Business Review, 1996,(July-August):136-144
[57]朱爱群．客户关系管理与数据挖掘．北京：中国财政经济出版社，2001
[58]余军合，吴昭同．客户关系管理．企业管理信息化，2000，(12)：8-10
[59]李海明，吴建林，张雷．分析型CRM的软件体系结构．计算机工程与应用，2002，(5)：110-112
[60]潘伟．CRM系统在企业网络营销中的作用．中国流通经济，2001，(2)：40-43