三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制研究
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摘要
中国是地质灾害多发的国家,人类生产生活、工程改造等活动的增多,使得地质灾害的频度和危害有日趋加剧的趋势。三峡大坝的兴建导致其水位发生巨大变化,有可能诱发大量的地质灾害,危及库区人民生命安全及航道安全。针对这一严峻形势,我国政府围绕减少因蓄水引发地质灾害的几率,最大程度防止或减少可能出现的地质灾害这一目标,对三峡库区的地质灾害集中进行了大规模治理,并取得良好成效。本文采取比较分析、系统分析法、定性分析与定量分析相结合等研究方法,对三峡库区地质灾害防治系统的构成元素进行梳理,并且分析了其运行机制与机理,指出下一阶段该系统的运行机制将会产生的变化。
全文共八章,具体内容可概括如下：
第一章,着重介绍了三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制研究这一选题的研究背景、研究意义和研究目标,并对选题的国内外研究现状进行分析与阐述。
第二章,剖析构建地质灾害防治系统运行机制所需的理论基础。明晰了灾害、减灾、灾害管理等相关概念；深入分析三峡库区地质灾害的特点,地质灾害的主要类型和发育规律；建立地质灾害防治系统运行机制的理论架构,指出三峡库区地质灾害防治系统的主要构成元素,并分析其基本运行机制。
第在章,从宏观的角度,对中国与美国、日本这两个国家的灾害管理机制进行对比,以期理清头绪,对中国目前灾害管理机制存在的问题及不足作出剖析。与美国、日本的灾害管理机制相比,我国的灾害管理在体制上有待改进,与灾害相关的法律建设不完善,灾前的预防与备灾准备不够充分,早期兴建的防灾设施缺少维护,信息反馈的机制需进一步提高,资金投入需常态化建设。同时,在分析中明晰地质灾害管理的所属层次及位置,为后文通过三峡库区地质灾害大规模防治,分析我国地质灾害防治系统运行机制夯实理论基础,同时也为最后的总结与讨论提供理论基础。
第四章,对三峡库区地质灾害治理工作取得的经济效益和社会效益进行分析与总结,并指出三峡库区地质灾害防治存在的问题、原因,以及运行机制构建的必要性。对三峡库区经济效益的分析,主要包括防治经济效益评估研究和防治经济效益结果；根据实际工程对三峡库区社会生产生活产生的影响,三峡库区地质灾害防治工作产生的社会效益,主要体现在有减少人员伤亡、政治综合效益、环境综合效益、促进地方经济发展等几个方面。三峡库区地质灾害的治理在经济效益、社会效益等方面取得了巨大的成功。它不仅可以作为一个大型的区域性的地质灾害治理的范本,而且它在地质灾害治理的规范化、程序化、科学化方面,对其它区域性地质灾害治理工程,以及相关地质灾害的大型土建工程具有重要的参考价值和应用价值。
第五章、第六章、第七章是本文的主体部分。三峡库区地质灾害防治系统是一个典型的技术系统,具备一个相对完整的输入子系统、运作子系统、输出子系统。第五章详细分析总结了三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制输入子系统的构建与运作,其中三峡库区前期重点工程治理、三峡库区地质灾害防治前期科学研究、三峡库区地质灾害防治的决策组织与分工这三个要素围绕着三峡库区地质灾害防治规划为核心,发挥着各自的功能与作用,共同承担着输入子系统的作用。第六章详细分析总结了三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制运作子系统的构建与运作。三峡库区地质灾害防治工程和三峡库区地质灾害搬迁避让工程构成了运作子系统。第七章详细分析并总结了三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制输出子系统的构建与运作。三峡库区地质灾害监测预警体系以及三峡库区地质灾害防治重大科学研究共同构成了输出子系统。这些要素之间通过特定的方式组织联合在一起,发挥着作用。输出子系统中的地质灾害监测预警子系统及重大科学研究这两个组成要素,对于三峡库区地质灾害的防治运行机制的构建尤为重要。地质灾害监测预警,在地质灾害防治运行系统中承担着数据反馈的功能,是输出端的主要出口,其输出信息具有响应速度和准确度两个维度,这对于地质灾害防治的时效响应不仅十分必要,而且直接影响到整个系统运行的效果。重大科学研究活动,其研究的目的是优化地质灾害防治防治系统。在大规模应急治理工作完成后,工作重心就会从治理已知滑坡隐患向防治新生滑坡灾害与持续治理遗留隐患而转变。
第八章,主要结论与研究展望。对该系统的运行机制进行整体描述,进一步明确本文的主要结论、创新点和未来的研究方向。
本文创新点主要体现在两个方面,一是运用管理科学的系统论等理论与方法,探讨三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制的机理,构建三峡库区地质灾害防治工程系统运行机制的输入、运转和输出三个子系统；二是对三峡库区地质灾害防治工程这一典型案例取得的成效和问题进行全面的梳理,分析地质灾害管理的发展趋势,为我国其它地区的地质灾害大规模防治工作提供经验启示；同时,分析下一阶段三峡库区地质灾害防治工作的侧重点,并提出了相关建议。由于三峡库区地质灾害防治工作处于阶段性完成时期,对其管理系统、运行机制的研究及梳理本身就是一项创新工作,有很多研究还需进一步深入。
China is a geological disaster-prone country. Human production and living, activities such as engineering, makes the frequency and harm of geological disasters are increasingly aggravate trend. The construction of the Three Gorges dam which lead to the great changes in water level, maybe induce a large number of geological disasters, and endanger the safety of the people's life safety and waterways. In order to solve this serious situation, Chinese government around the goal which reduce the rate of water caused by geological disasters, and the greatest degree to prevent or reduce possible geological disasters,for the geological disaster in three gorges reservoir area focuses on a large scale management, and achieved good results. In this paper, the research methods including comparative analysis, system analysis, combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis and so on.The element composition of the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system are settled, analyzes its operating mechanism and the mechanization, and points out the change about the system operation mechanism in next phase.
The paper consists of eight parts with the specific contents as follows:
Chapter one introduces the propose, research purpose, significance and aim of the topic. It also elaborates the existing problems of the research status at home and abroad.
Chapter two analyzes operating mechanism construction of geological disaster prevention and control system for theoretical basis. it defines the concepts of disaster, disaster reduction, and disaster management. In-depth analysis of the characteristics of geological disasters in the three gorges reservoir, the main types and development of geological disasters.It establishes a theoretical framework of the operation mechanism of geological hazards prevention and control system, and points out the main elements of the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system. And analyzes its basic running mechanism.
Chapter three, from the macroscopic point of view, for China and the United States, Japan, the two countries which compar the disaster management mechanism, In order to put things in perspective, the current problems in disaster management mechanism in China and makes analysis and exploration. Compared with the United States, Japan's disaster management mechanism, disaster management in our country remains to be improved in the system, imperfect law related to disasters, and was not well prepared before a disaster prevention and disaster preparedness, early construction of disaster prevention facilities, lack of maintenance, information feedback mechanism should be further improved, construction of investment needs to be normalized.At the same time, based on the analysis of level and position clear geological disaster management belongs to, for later through the three gorges reservoir area analysis of geological disaster prevention and control of large-scale geological disasters prevention and control system operating mechanism in our country is in what stage of a solid theoretical foundation, and also provides theoretical basis for the final summary and discussion.
Chapter four, the geological disasters in the Three Gorges Reservoir management has achieved economic and social benefits are analyzed and summarized, and points out the three gorges reservoir area prevention and control of geological hazards, reasons of existing problems, necessity of constructing and operating mechanism. The analysis of the economic benefits of the three gorges reservoir, mainly including economic benefit evaluation research and control economic results; According to the practical engineering of three gorges reservoir area the impact of social production and living, the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control work of social benefits, mainly reflected in reducing casualties and political comprehensive benefit, environment comprehensive benefits, and promote local economic development.The management of geological disasters in Three Gorges Reservoir economic benefit and social benefit has been a huge success. It not only serves as a large regional geological disaster management model, and in geological disaster management standardized, scientific and stylized, for other regional geological hazard controlling engineering, and geological hazards involved a large civil engineering has important reference value and application value.
Chapter five, chapter six and chapter seven is the main part of the paper. The Three Gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system is a typical technology systems, with a relatively complete input subsystem, operation subsystem and output subsystem.Chapter five detailed analysis and summed up the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system operating mechanism input subsystem of construction and operation, Including early key project governance, the Three Gorges Reservoir area of three gorges reservoir area prevention and control of geological hazards early scientific research, the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention decision-making organization and division of the three elements around Three Gorges Reservoir area of geological disasters prevention planning as the core, their function and role, to share the function of input subsystem. Chapter six detailed analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir area are summarized geological disaster prevention and control system operating mechanism operation subsystem of construction and operation,and focuses on move for geological disaster prevention engineering and avoid engineering involved in related issues. Geological disaster prevention project of Three Gorges and the Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard removal avoidance engineering constitutes the operation subsystem.Chapter seven, a detailed analysis and sums up the Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system operating mechanism output subsystem, construction and operation. The Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard monitoring and early warning system and the Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control of major scientific research jointly constitute the output subsystem. These elements together through certain way between organizations, and play an important role. Output subsystem in the geological disaster monitoring and early warning subsystem and major scientific research of these two elements, for Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control of operating mechanism construction is particularly important. Geological disaster monitoring and early warning, taking data in the geological disaster prevention and control of running system and feedback function, which is a major export the output, the output information two dimensions have response speed and accuracy, and for the ageing response of geological hazards prevention and control is not only necessary, but also directly affect the whole system running effect. Major scientific research activities, the research is to achieve the purpose of prevention and control system of normalized management. In large-scale emergency management work, after the completion of work center of gravity from the governance known hidden trouble to the prevention and control of new landslide disasters and ongoing governance left hidden trouble change.
Chapter eight, the main conclusions and research prospects. Operating mechanism for overall description of the system, further defined in this paper, the main conclusion, innovation points and research direction in the future. This article innovation mainly reflects in two aspects:firstly, it is to use management science, system theory and other theories and methods, discusses the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system operating mechanism, the mechanism of building the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention engineering system input, operation and output of the operation mechanism of three subsystems; secondly, it is the prevention for disasters in the three gorges reservoir geological engineering problems and the results of typical cases comprehensive carding, analysis the development trend of geological disaster management, for our country in the rest of the large-scale geological disaster prevention and control work experience enlightenment. At the same time, because of the Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control work in phases complete period, the study of its management system, operation mechanism and grooming itself is an innovative work. In addition, the system theory, this paper for the first time, operation mechanism and so on theory is introduced into the three gorges reservoir area of geological disaster management, based on the analysis of the next stage the emphasis of the work, put forward some suggestions.
全文共八章,具体内容可概括如下：
第一章,着重介绍了三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制研究这一选题的研究背景、研究意义和研究目标,并对选题的国内外研究现状进行分析与阐述。
第二章,剖析构建地质灾害防治系统运行机制所需的理论基础。明晰了灾害、减灾、灾害管理等相关概念；深入分析三峡库区地质灾害的特点,地质灾害的主要类型和发育规律；建立地质灾害防治系统运行机制的理论架构,指出三峡库区地质灾害防治系统的主要构成元素,并分析其基本运行机制。
第在章,从宏观的角度,对中国与美国、日本这两个国家的灾害管理机制进行对比,以期理清头绪,对中国目前灾害管理机制存在的问题及不足作出剖析。与美国、日本的灾害管理机制相比,我国的灾害管理在体制上有待改进,与灾害相关的法律建设不完善,灾前的预防与备灾准备不够充分,早期兴建的防灾设施缺少维护,信息反馈的机制需进一步提高,资金投入需常态化建设。同时,在分析中明晰地质灾害管理的所属层次及位置,为后文通过三峡库区地质灾害大规模防治,分析我国地质灾害防治系统运行机制夯实理论基础,同时也为最后的总结与讨论提供理论基础。
第四章,对三峡库区地质灾害治理工作取得的经济效益和社会效益进行分析与总结,并指出三峡库区地质灾害防治存在的问题、原因,以及运行机制构建的必要性。对三峡库区经济效益的分析,主要包括防治经济效益评估研究和防治经济效益结果；根据实际工程对三峡库区社会生产生活产生的影响,三峡库区地质灾害防治工作产生的社会效益,主要体现在有减少人员伤亡、政治综合效益、环境综合效益、促进地方经济发展等几个方面。三峡库区地质灾害的治理在经济效益、社会效益等方面取得了巨大的成功。它不仅可以作为一个大型的区域性的地质灾害治理的范本,而且它在地质灾害治理的规范化、程序化、科学化方面,对其它区域性地质灾害治理工程,以及相关地质灾害的大型土建工程具有重要的参考价值和应用价值。
第五章、第六章、第七章是本文的主体部分。三峡库区地质灾害防治系统是一个典型的技术系统,具备一个相对完整的输入子系统、运作子系统、输出子系统。第五章详细分析总结了三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制输入子系统的构建与运作,其中三峡库区前期重点工程治理、三峡库区地质灾害防治前期科学研究、三峡库区地质灾害防治的决策组织与分工这三个要素围绕着三峡库区地质灾害防治规划为核心,发挥着各自的功能与作用,共同承担着输入子系统的作用。第六章详细分析总结了三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制运作子系统的构建与运作。三峡库区地质灾害防治工程和三峡库区地质灾害搬迁避让工程构成了运作子系统。第七章详细分析并总结了三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制输出子系统的构建与运作。三峡库区地质灾害监测预警体系以及三峡库区地质灾害防治重大科学研究共同构成了输出子系统。这些要素之间通过特定的方式组织联合在一起,发挥着作用。输出子系统中的地质灾害监测预警子系统及重大科学研究这两个组成要素,对于三峡库区地质灾害的防治运行机制的构建尤为重要。地质灾害监测预警,在地质灾害防治运行系统中承担着数据反馈的功能,是输出端的主要出口,其输出信息具有响应速度和准确度两个维度,这对于地质灾害防治的时效响应不仅十分必要,而且直接影响到整个系统运行的效果。重大科学研究活动,其研究的目的是优化地质灾害防治防治系统。在大规模应急治理工作完成后,工作重心就会从治理已知滑坡隐患向防治新生滑坡灾害与持续治理遗留隐患而转变。
第八章,主要结论与研究展望。对该系统的运行机制进行整体描述,进一步明确本文的主要结论、创新点和未来的研究方向。
本文创新点主要体现在两个方面,一是运用管理科学的系统论等理论与方法,探讨三峡库区地质灾害防治系统运行机制的机理,构建三峡库区地质灾害防治工程系统运行机制的输入、运转和输出三个子系统；二是对三峡库区地质灾害防治工程这一典型案例取得的成效和问题进行全面的梳理,分析地质灾害管理的发展趋势,为我国其它地区的地质灾害大规模防治工作提供经验启示；同时,分析下一阶段三峡库区地质灾害防治工作的侧重点,并提出了相关建议。由于三峡库区地质灾害防治工作处于阶段性完成时期,对其管理系统、运行机制的研究及梳理本身就是一项创新工作,有很多研究还需进一步深入。
China is a geological disaster-prone country. Human production and living, activities such as engineering, makes the frequency and harm of geological disasters are increasingly aggravate trend. The construction of the Three Gorges dam which lead to the great changes in water level, maybe induce a large number of geological disasters, and endanger the safety of the people's life safety and waterways. In order to solve this serious situation, Chinese government around the goal which reduce the rate of water caused by geological disasters, and the greatest degree to prevent or reduce possible geological disasters,for the geological disaster in three gorges reservoir area focuses on a large scale management, and achieved good results. In this paper, the research methods including comparative analysis, system analysis, combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis and so on.The element composition of the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system are settled, analyzes its operating mechanism and the mechanization, and points out the change about the system operation mechanism in next phase.
The paper consists of eight parts with the specific contents as follows:
Chapter one introduces the propose, research purpose, significance and aim of the topic. It also elaborates the existing problems of the research status at home and abroad.
Chapter two analyzes operating mechanism construction of geological disaster prevention and control system for theoretical basis. it defines the concepts of disaster, disaster reduction, and disaster management. In-depth analysis of the characteristics of geological disasters in the three gorges reservoir, the main types and development of geological disasters.It establishes a theoretical framework of the operation mechanism of geological hazards prevention and control system, and points out the main elements of the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system. And analyzes its basic running mechanism.
Chapter three, from the macroscopic point of view, for China and the United States, Japan, the two countries which compar the disaster management mechanism, In order to put things in perspective, the current problems in disaster management mechanism in China and makes analysis and exploration. Compared with the United States, Japan's disaster management mechanism, disaster management in our country remains to be improved in the system, imperfect law related to disasters, and was not well prepared before a disaster prevention and disaster preparedness, early construction of disaster prevention facilities, lack of maintenance, information feedback mechanism should be further improved, construction of investment needs to be normalized.At the same time, based on the analysis of level and position clear geological disaster management belongs to, for later through the three gorges reservoir area analysis of geological disaster prevention and control of large-scale geological disasters prevention and control system operating mechanism in our country is in what stage of a solid theoretical foundation, and also provides theoretical basis for the final summary and discussion.
Chapter four, the geological disasters in the Three Gorges Reservoir management has achieved economic and social benefits are analyzed and summarized, and points out the three gorges reservoir area prevention and control of geological hazards, reasons of existing problems, necessity of constructing and operating mechanism. The analysis of the economic benefits of the three gorges reservoir, mainly including economic benefit evaluation research and control economic results; According to the practical engineering of three gorges reservoir area the impact of social production and living, the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control work of social benefits, mainly reflected in reducing casualties and political comprehensive benefit, environment comprehensive benefits, and promote local economic development.The management of geological disasters in Three Gorges Reservoir economic benefit and social benefit has been a huge success. It not only serves as a large regional geological disaster management model, and in geological disaster management standardized, scientific and stylized, for other regional geological hazard controlling engineering, and geological hazards involved a large civil engineering has important reference value and application value.
Chapter five, chapter six and chapter seven is the main part of the paper. The Three Gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system is a typical technology systems, with a relatively complete input subsystem, operation subsystem and output subsystem.Chapter five detailed analysis and summed up the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system operating mechanism input subsystem of construction and operation, Including early key project governance, the Three Gorges Reservoir area of three gorges reservoir area prevention and control of geological hazards early scientific research, the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention decision-making organization and division of the three elements around Three Gorges Reservoir area of geological disasters prevention planning as the core, their function and role, to share the function of input subsystem. Chapter six detailed analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir area are summarized geological disaster prevention and control system operating mechanism operation subsystem of construction and operation,and focuses on move for geological disaster prevention engineering and avoid engineering involved in related issues. Geological disaster prevention project of Three Gorges and the Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard removal avoidance engineering constitutes the operation subsystem.Chapter seven, a detailed analysis and sums up the Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system operating mechanism output subsystem, construction and operation. The Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard monitoring and early warning system and the Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control of major scientific research jointly constitute the output subsystem. These elements together through certain way between organizations, and play an important role. Output subsystem in the geological disaster monitoring and early warning subsystem and major scientific research of these two elements, for Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control of operating mechanism construction is particularly important. Geological disaster monitoring and early warning, taking data in the geological disaster prevention and control of running system and feedback function, which is a major export the output, the output information two dimensions have response speed and accuracy, and for the ageing response of geological hazards prevention and control is not only necessary, but also directly affect the whole system running effect. Major scientific research activities, the research is to achieve the purpose of prevention and control system of normalized management. In large-scale emergency management work, after the completion of work center of gravity from the governance known hidden trouble to the prevention and control of new landslide disasters and ongoing governance left hidden trouble change.
Chapter eight, the main conclusions and research prospects. Operating mechanism for overall description of the system, further defined in this paper, the main conclusion, innovation points and research direction in the future. This article innovation mainly reflects in two aspects:firstly, it is to use management science, system theory and other theories and methods, discusses the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control system operating mechanism, the mechanism of building the three gorges reservoir geologic hazard prevention engineering system input, operation and output of the operation mechanism of three subsystems; secondly, it is the prevention for disasters in the three gorges reservoir geological engineering problems and the results of typical cases comprehensive carding, analysis the development trend of geological disaster management, for our country in the rest of the large-scale geological disaster prevention and control work experience enlightenment. At the same time, because of the Three Gorges Reservoir geologic hazard prevention and control work in phases complete period, the study of its management system, operation mechanism and grooming itself is an innovative work. In addition, the system theory, this paper for the first time, operation mechanism and so on theory is introduced into the three gorges reservoir area of geological disaster management, based on the analysis of the next stage the emphasis of the work, put forward some suggestions.
引文
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