引入非财务指标的上市公司财务危机预警研究
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摘要
随着市场竞争的日益激烈,企业随时都有可能面临着陷入财务危机的危险。因此,无论是对证券市场中的各种投资者,还是对公司管理层而言,构建一个完善而精确的财务危机预警指标体系以及一个预警能力比较强的财务危机预警模型,都具有非常重要的意义。
在以往很多的研究中都更倾向于用单纯的财务指标建立模型,但是很多非财务的因素也对企业财务危机的发生有重大影响,在财务危机预警模型的构建中完全可以将非财务指标变量引入。因此,本文将在指标体系中引入股权结构、公司治理、重大事项以及其他一些非财务指标,与财务指标体系一起构建综合预警模型,使预警指标体系更加完整。
本文首先介绍了财务危机的定义、国内外对财务危机预警的研究,以及国内外将非财务指标变量应用于财务危机预警中的一些相关研究。然后通过本文设定的预警指标、样本及配对样本的选取准则,选取了财务指标16个,非财务指标15个,并分别从财务层面定性的分析了各个财务和非财务指标对企业财务危机可能的影响,又选取88家ST公司作为样本,88家非ST公司作为配对样本。最后,先后使用Logistic回归和Fisher判别分析的方法,分别建立了基于纯财务指标的预警模型和引入非财务指标后的综合预警模型,并引入组合预警思想建立模型,进行比较分析,然后对所建模型进行检验。研究表明,引入非财务指标后,确实可以提高模型的预警能力。
With the increasingly fierce market competition, the companies may face the risk of financial crisis at any time. Therefore, to build a complete and accurate early warning indicator system of financial crisis and a strong financial crisis prediction model has very important significance for whether the various investors in the stock market or the company's management.
In the past, many studies are more inclined to build a simple model of financial indicators, but many non-financial factors also have significant impacts to financial crises, it can completely introduce the variable of non-financial indicators to the construction of the financial crisis prediction model. Therefore, this indicator system will be introduced in the ownership structure, corporate governance, major issues, and other non-financial indicators, with the financial indicators to build the integrated early warning system model, so that the early warning indicator system will be more completely.
This article firstly introduces the definition of financial crisis, domestic and international research on the financial crisis early warning, and the researches of non-financial indicators used in financial crisis at home and abroad. Then through the selection criteria of early warning indicators, sample and matched sample, we select 16 financial indicators and 15 non-financial indicators, and analysis the impossible influence of the various indicators from the financial aspects, and then we select 88 ST companies as samples and 88 non-ST companies as matching samples. Finally, we establish the early warning model of pure financial indicators and comprehensive early warning model of introducing the non-financial indicators based on Logistic regression method and Fisher discriminant analysis method respectively, then introduce the combination warning thought to build the model, compare and analysis the models of financial crisis and test the models at last. The results show that after introducing the non-financial indicators, the capability of the early warning model have indeed improved.
在以往很多的研究中都更倾向于用单纯的财务指标建立模型,但是很多非财务的因素也对企业财务危机的发生有重大影响,在财务危机预警模型的构建中完全可以将非财务指标变量引入。因此,本文将在指标体系中引入股权结构、公司治理、重大事项以及其他一些非财务指标,与财务指标体系一起构建综合预警模型,使预警指标体系更加完整。
本文首先介绍了财务危机的定义、国内外对财务危机预警的研究,以及国内外将非财务指标变量应用于财务危机预警中的一些相关研究。然后通过本文设定的预警指标、样本及配对样本的选取准则,选取了财务指标16个,非财务指标15个,并分别从财务层面定性的分析了各个财务和非财务指标对企业财务危机可能的影响,又选取88家ST公司作为样本,88家非ST公司作为配对样本。最后,先后使用Logistic回归和Fisher判别分析的方法,分别建立了基于纯财务指标的预警模型和引入非财务指标后的综合预警模型,并引入组合预警思想建立模型,进行比较分析,然后对所建模型进行检验。研究表明,引入非财务指标后,确实可以提高模型的预警能力。
With the increasingly fierce market competition, the companies may face the risk of financial crisis at any time. Therefore, to build a complete and accurate early warning indicator system of financial crisis and a strong financial crisis prediction model has very important significance for whether the various investors in the stock market or the company's management.
In the past, many studies are more inclined to build a simple model of financial indicators, but many non-financial factors also have significant impacts to financial crises, it can completely introduce the variable of non-financial indicators to the construction of the financial crisis prediction model. Therefore, this indicator system will be introduced in the ownership structure, corporate governance, major issues, and other non-financial indicators, with the financial indicators to build the integrated early warning system model, so that the early warning indicator system will be more completely.
This article firstly introduces the definition of financial crisis, domestic and international research on the financial crisis early warning, and the researches of non-financial indicators used in financial crisis at home and abroad. Then through the selection criteria of early warning indicators, sample and matched sample, we select 16 financial indicators and 15 non-financial indicators, and analysis the impossible influence of the various indicators from the financial aspects, and then we select 88 ST companies as samples and 88 non-ST companies as matching samples. Finally, we establish the early warning model of pure financial indicators and comprehensive early warning model of introducing the non-financial indicators based on Logistic regression method and Fisher discriminant analysis method respectively, then introduce the combination warning thought to build the model, compare and analysis the models of financial crisis and test the models at last. The results show that after introducing the non-financial indicators, the capability of the early warning model have indeed improved.
引文
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[2]Deakin.E.B. A discriminate analysis of predictors of business failure[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1972,(3):98-117.
[3]W.H.Beaver. Financial Ratios as prediction of failure[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1966:71-102.
[4]Carmichael. A Comparison of Ratios of Successful Industrial Enterprise with Those of Failed Firms[J]. Certified Public Accountant,1972, (2):589-737.
[5]Scott J. The Probability of Bankruptcy:A comparison of Empirical Predictions and Theoretical Models[J]. Journal of Finance,1981, (27):320-340.
[6]Ross P.S. The Role of Outside Directors in Bank Acquisitions[J]. Financial Management,2000, (50):627-628.
[7]刘淑莲,谷祺.财务危机企业投资行为分析与对策[J].会计研究,1999,(10)：28-31.
[8]赵爱玲.企业财务危机的识别与分析[J].财经理论与实践,2000,(11)：69-72.
[9]陈锦婉.财务危机与“所有者缺位”[J].商业研究,2000,(9)：1-3.
[10]郭丽红,陈文浩.企业财务危机的原因分析[J].浙江财税与会计,2001,(10)：20-21.
[11]Altman E.I, R.G.Haldeman, P,Narayanan. ZETA analysis:a new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations [J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1977, 18(1):29-54.
[12]Hsieh S. A note on the optimal cutoff point in bankruptcy prediction models[J]. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,1993,20(3):457-464.
[13]Zmijewski. Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1980,22(1):59-86.
[14]Ohlson. Financial ratios and probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy[J].Journal of Accounting Research,1980(18):109-131.
[15]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究,1999,(6)：31-38.
[16]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000,(3)：49-51.
[17]吴世农.我国上市公司财务困境预测模型研究[J].经济研究,2001,(6)：46-55.
[18]卢宇林等.上市公司财务失败预警系统实证分析[R].北京：兴业证券股份有限公司报告,2002.
[19]杨保安,季海,徐晶等.BP神经网络在企业财务危机预警之应用[J].预测,2001,20(2)：49-68.
[20]马若微.基于粗糙集与信息熵的上市公司财务困境预警指标的确立[J].当代经济科学,2005,27(2)：45-50.
[21]Rose P.S., Andrews W.T and Giroux G.A. predicting business failure:A macroeconomic perspective[J]. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance,1982, 6(1):20-22.
[22]Sunti Tirapat, P. Predicting corporate financial distress:A time-series CUSUM methodology[J]. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting,1996, (6):1-38.
[23]TirapaR, Nittayagasetwat. Application of the rough set approach to evaluation of bankruptcy risk[J]. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, 1999, (4):27-41.
[24]Platt. An examination of the stationary of multivariate bankruptcy prediction models:A methodological study[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1990,22(1): 380-395.
[25]John Baldwin. Bank failure:a multidimensional scaling approach[J]. The European Journal of Finance,2000, (7):165-183.
[26]EI Hennawy. Predicting shifts in the mean of a multivariate time series process: an application in predicting business failures[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1983,88(422):441-449.
[27]Shumway T. Forecasting bankruptcy more accurately:A simple hazard model[J]. Journal of Business,2001, (74):101-124.
[28]叶银华,李存修,刘容慈.整合公司治理、会计资讯与总体经济敏感度之财务危机模型[R].台湾：行政院国家科学委员会专题研究计划报告,2002.
[29]池国华.董事会规模、稳定性与公司绩效理论与经验分析[J].经济研究,2004,(4)：70-79.
[30]宋增基,宁家耀,张宗益.董事会行为、公司治理与绩效：来自中国的经验证据[J].管理科学,2008,(6)：42-46.
[31]姜秀华,孙铮.治理弱化与财务危机：一个预测模型[J].南开管理评论,2001,(5)：19-25.
[32]张翼,刘巍.中国上市公司多元化与公司业绩的实证研究[J].金融研究,2005,(9)：122-136.
[33]夏好琴,曹德芳.股权结构变量对企业财务危机影响的实证研究[J].东北大学学报,2006,(1)：31-34.
[34]王新宇,周敏.基于模糊优选和神经网络的企业财务危机预警[J].管理科学学报,2002,5(3)：86-90.
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