生产率增长、要素重置与中国经济增长质量研究
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摘要
发达国家从数量型增长到质量型增长的理论演变与实践发展经历了200多年的历史。中国改革开放与经济转型30多年来,经济总量规模扩张迅速,传统的依靠要素投入的粗放式增长方式越来越受到资源、环境的制约,对于我国经济增长质量的研究逐渐受到重视。经济增长质量研究的核心就是经济增长源泉的转换与如何实现可持续性增长。传统的经济增长理论主要看重要素数量的投入,而新经济增长理论则更加重视要素生产效率的提高,即人力资本、技术进步和要素配置效率的改善等因素。要素生产效率在经济增长中发挥的作用越大,就会降低对于传统生产要素的依赖,经济增长的质量就会提高,长期可持续增长也就能够实现。
新经济增长理论认为,生产效率提高的途径主要包括科学技术进步与内生经济增长、产业结构变迁等。科学技术进步和内生经济增长通过提高部门全要素生产率水平来实现经济总体生产效率的提升；产业结构变迁对生产率增长的影响则是通过将生产要素从低生产率水平或低生产率增长的部门向高生产率水平或高生产率增长的部门流动即要素重置来实现的。本文沿着这两条主线对我国现阶段国民经济分行业的经济增长质量状况进行了实证研究,在这一基础上参考发达国家的经验教训并结合我国的具体实际提出了提升我国经济增长质量的具体政策建议。
本文在相关理论的基础上,采用跨产业面板数据,对1999-2009年间中国三大产业分部门和工业18个分行业考虑环境污染因素的绿色TFP进行了测算,基于此实证度量了劳动、资本要素投入与TFP增长对我国经济增长的贡献率。结果发现从分产业来看,我国经济整体的生产率提高主要来自于第二、三产业的贡献。从分行业对比结果来看,大多数的行业都表现为要素投入尤其是资本投入增长对产出增长的贡献率较高。从分时段测算结果来看改革开放以来我国各要素对经济增长的贡献率中资本投入对经济增长的贡献率最大,为47.8%,最近10年内的贡献率甚至接近了60%；劳动力投入对经济增长的贡献度在20世纪80年代最高,随后在波动中趋于下降；TFP(技术进步)的贡献率平均为38.4%,TFP对经济增长的贡献在改革开放后到2000年之前整体呈上升趋势,在20世纪90年代达到最高,但随后对经济增长的贡献率趋于下降,近几年来的下降趋势显著。经济增长对资本投入的依赖逐渐加重,技术进步对于促进经济增长的贡献堪忧,说明我国目前还属于要素投入驱动型的增长,经济增长的质量不高。
文章进一步测算了劳动、资本要素在行业间的配置效率以及生产率增长与要素重置对我国经济增长的贡献效应。结果发现,从经济总体来看,劳动力结构变化对促进生产率增长具有弱的正效应,资本再配置变化则对生产率增长的贡献效应为负,即对生产率增长具有阻碍作用。工业部门内资本和劳动要素的结构变化对生产率增长的贡献效应均为负。在1999-2009年期间,我国劳动和资本要素的再配置对经济增长的贡献均为负。这一结果说明我国的产业结构调整中存在着许多问题,要素重置与结构变迁作为生产率增长的重要源泉在这一时段的表现很不理想,不仅没有促进经济增长质量的提升,反而具有“结构负利”效应。
这些问题的存在,恰恰说明我国依靠技术进步转变经济增长方式和通过产业结构优化升级实现经济结构战略性调整在提升我国经济增长质量过程中还有巨大的潜力可挖。我们可以通过体制机制创新,结构合理、高素质的人力资源开发与培养,技术创新与高新技术产业化,产业结构优化升级,战略性新兴主导产业的培育来继续发挥技术进步与产业结构变迁在促进我国经济增长质量提升中的积极作用。
The development of theory and practice from quantity-type growth to quality-type growth in developed countries has gone through about200years. In China, in the past30years of economic reforms and transition, the traditional extensive mode of economic growth was more and more largely restricted by resources and environment with the economic aggregate being enlarged rapidly. Based on this, the study of the economic growth quality began to draw much attention, which focuses on how to change the source of the economic growth and how to obtain sustainable development. Traditionally, growth theory focused on the amount of the investment of production element, while new growth theory attaches importance to the improvement of production factors efficiency, including human capital, technology advancement and factor allocation efficiency. Generally speaking, the greater role production factor efficiency plays in economic growth, the less it depends on traditional production factors. Thus, the quality of economic growth will be improved and the long-term sustainable growth will be achieved.
The new economic growth theory shows that scientific and technological progress, endogenous growth and the adjustment of the industrial structure are the means to improve the production efficiency. The former two function by improving entire essential factor productivity, and the latter by factors allocation. According to these two clues, this paper conducts an empirical research on the present condition of China's growth quality of national economy sectors, and on the basis of it the author puts forward some practical suggestions to improve our country's economic growth quality taking developed countries'lessons and China's specific situation into consideration.
Based on correlative theory, adopted the cross-industry panel data of China, the author calculates the TFP of China's three macroeconomic sectors and green TFP of18manufacturing sectors during the period of1999-2009and on the basis of the results, proves the contribution of labor, capital factors input TFP growth to economic growth. The findings are as follows:(a) the increase of our whole economy is due to the first and second industry.(b) the contrast of manufacturing sectors shows that in most sectors, production factors input, especially the capital input contributes more to the increase of output.(c) time-interval measurement results show that since the reform and opening-up, capital input contributes most to the economic growth, whose contributory rate is47.8%, and in recent ten years, has gone as high as60%. The contribution of labor input was once the highest and then began to decline. And the contribution of TFP averages38.4%, which had a rising tendency from1978to2000, reached the summit in the1990s and then declined and there is a obvious declining trend in recent years. All this demonstrates that our economic growth depends more and more on capital input and the function of technology advancement is worrying. It is a fact that our economic growth is still element investment-driven growth with low quality.
The paper more tests and calculates the allocation efficiency of labor and capital elements among industries and the contributive effect of productivity growth and elements allocation on our country's economic growth. The findings are as follows:(a)seeing the economy as a whole, labor power structure has a weak positive effect on the productivity growth, while capital reallocation has a negative one.(b)in industrial sector, the structural change of capital and labor has a negative effect on the productivity growth. The results display there are many problems in our country's industrial restructuring. As the important source of productivity growth, factors reallocation and structural transformation have not promoted the improvement of economic growth quality.
All of the problems prove the great potential of achieving strategic adjustment of economic structure by optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure and changing economy growth mode by means of technology advancement. We can continue to play the positive role of technology advancement and industrial structure changes in promoting our country's economic growth quality by innovating systems, developing structurally reasonable and high-quality personnel resource, advancing technology and industrializing high-tech, as well as cultivating the emerging strategic leading industry.
新经济增长理论认为,生产效率提高的途径主要包括科学技术进步与内生经济增长、产业结构变迁等。科学技术进步和内生经济增长通过提高部门全要素生产率水平来实现经济总体生产效率的提升；产业结构变迁对生产率增长的影响则是通过将生产要素从低生产率水平或低生产率增长的部门向高生产率水平或高生产率增长的部门流动即要素重置来实现的。本文沿着这两条主线对我国现阶段国民经济分行业的经济增长质量状况进行了实证研究,在这一基础上参考发达国家的经验教训并结合我国的具体实际提出了提升我国经济增长质量的具体政策建议。
本文在相关理论的基础上,采用跨产业面板数据,对1999-2009年间中国三大产业分部门和工业18个分行业考虑环境污染因素的绿色TFP进行了测算,基于此实证度量了劳动、资本要素投入与TFP增长对我国经济增长的贡献率。结果发现从分产业来看,我国经济整体的生产率提高主要来自于第二、三产业的贡献。从分行业对比结果来看,大多数的行业都表现为要素投入尤其是资本投入增长对产出增长的贡献率较高。从分时段测算结果来看改革开放以来我国各要素对经济增长的贡献率中资本投入对经济增长的贡献率最大,为47.8%,最近10年内的贡献率甚至接近了60%；劳动力投入对经济增长的贡献度在20世纪80年代最高,随后在波动中趋于下降；TFP(技术进步)的贡献率平均为38.4%,TFP对经济增长的贡献在改革开放后到2000年之前整体呈上升趋势,在20世纪90年代达到最高,但随后对经济增长的贡献率趋于下降,近几年来的下降趋势显著。经济增长对资本投入的依赖逐渐加重,技术进步对于促进经济增长的贡献堪忧,说明我国目前还属于要素投入驱动型的增长,经济增长的质量不高。
文章进一步测算了劳动、资本要素在行业间的配置效率以及生产率增长与要素重置对我国经济增长的贡献效应。结果发现,从经济总体来看,劳动力结构变化对促进生产率增长具有弱的正效应,资本再配置变化则对生产率增长的贡献效应为负,即对生产率增长具有阻碍作用。工业部门内资本和劳动要素的结构变化对生产率增长的贡献效应均为负。在1999-2009年期间,我国劳动和资本要素的再配置对经济增长的贡献均为负。这一结果说明我国的产业结构调整中存在着许多问题,要素重置与结构变迁作为生产率增长的重要源泉在这一时段的表现很不理想,不仅没有促进经济增长质量的提升,反而具有“结构负利”效应。
这些问题的存在,恰恰说明我国依靠技术进步转变经济增长方式和通过产业结构优化升级实现经济结构战略性调整在提升我国经济增长质量过程中还有巨大的潜力可挖。我们可以通过体制机制创新,结构合理、高素质的人力资源开发与培养,技术创新与高新技术产业化,产业结构优化升级,战略性新兴主导产业的培育来继续发挥技术进步与产业结构变迁在促进我国经济增长质量提升中的积极作用。
The development of theory and practice from quantity-type growth to quality-type growth in developed countries has gone through about200years. In China, in the past30years of economic reforms and transition, the traditional extensive mode of economic growth was more and more largely restricted by resources and environment with the economic aggregate being enlarged rapidly. Based on this, the study of the economic growth quality began to draw much attention, which focuses on how to change the source of the economic growth and how to obtain sustainable development. Traditionally, growth theory focused on the amount of the investment of production element, while new growth theory attaches importance to the improvement of production factors efficiency, including human capital, technology advancement and factor allocation efficiency. Generally speaking, the greater role production factor efficiency plays in economic growth, the less it depends on traditional production factors. Thus, the quality of economic growth will be improved and the long-term sustainable growth will be achieved.
The new economic growth theory shows that scientific and technological progress, endogenous growth and the adjustment of the industrial structure are the means to improve the production efficiency. The former two function by improving entire essential factor productivity, and the latter by factors allocation. According to these two clues, this paper conducts an empirical research on the present condition of China's growth quality of national economy sectors, and on the basis of it the author puts forward some practical suggestions to improve our country's economic growth quality taking developed countries'lessons and China's specific situation into consideration.
Based on correlative theory, adopted the cross-industry panel data of China, the author calculates the TFP of China's three macroeconomic sectors and green TFP of18manufacturing sectors during the period of1999-2009and on the basis of the results, proves the contribution of labor, capital factors input TFP growth to economic growth. The findings are as follows:(a) the increase of our whole economy is due to the first and second industry.(b) the contrast of manufacturing sectors shows that in most sectors, production factors input, especially the capital input contributes more to the increase of output.(c) time-interval measurement results show that since the reform and opening-up, capital input contributes most to the economic growth, whose contributory rate is47.8%, and in recent ten years, has gone as high as60%. The contribution of labor input was once the highest and then began to decline. And the contribution of TFP averages38.4%, which had a rising tendency from1978to2000, reached the summit in the1990s and then declined and there is a obvious declining trend in recent years. All this demonstrates that our economic growth depends more and more on capital input and the function of technology advancement is worrying. It is a fact that our economic growth is still element investment-driven growth with low quality.
The paper more tests and calculates the allocation efficiency of labor and capital elements among industries and the contributive effect of productivity growth and elements allocation on our country's economic growth. The findings are as follows:(a)seeing the economy as a whole, labor power structure has a weak positive effect on the productivity growth, while capital reallocation has a negative one.(b)in industrial sector, the structural change of capital and labor has a negative effect on the productivity growth. The results display there are many problems in our country's industrial restructuring. As the important source of productivity growth, factors reallocation and structural transformation have not promoted the improvement of economic growth quality.
All of the problems prove the great potential of achieving strategic adjustment of economic structure by optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure and changing economy growth mode by means of technology advancement. We can continue to play the positive role of technology advancement and industrial structure changes in promoting our country's economic growth quality by innovating systems, developing structurally reasonable and high-quality personnel resource, advancing technology and industrializing high-tech, as well as cultivating the emerging strategic leading industry.
引文
①亚当·斯密：《国民财寓的性质和原因的研究》,北京,商务印书馆,1972年,第315-316页。
②亚当·斯密：《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》,北京,商务印书馆,1972年,第303页。
③亚当·斯密：《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》,北京,商务印书馆,1972年,第5页
③诺斯,托马斯.西方世界的兴起[M].北京：华夏出版社,1999：85
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