中国农产品对韩出口贸易问题研究
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摘要
中国与其邻国韩国有着悠久的政治、经济和文化历史渊源。自中韩建交以来,两国经贸关系发展迅速。目前,韩国是中国第六大贸易伙伴国、第三大出口对象国和第二大进口来源国,而中国是韩国最大的贸易和投资对象国,超过了日本在韩国的贸易地位。然而,随着双边贸易的快速发展,中国对韩国的贸易逆差也在日益增长。这也说明了中国的经济发展对韩国的经济有着重要影响。同时,在全面经贸合作发展的同时,中韩农产品贸易也有了迅速的发展,而且中国在中韩农产品贸易中一直保持了顺差。但是,随着中国越来越多的农产品涌进韩国市场,韩国频频启动贸易保护措施,中韩农产品贸易摩擦频繁出现,这限制了中国农产品向韩国的出口,也影响了两国农产品贸易的正常发展。
韩国作为一个农产品的纯进口国,由于其农业的脆弱性及农业在国民经济中的基础地位,韩国非常重视其农业的发展,对国内农业实行了高度保护的政策。近年来,韩国越来越多地采用非关税措施来保护其农产品贸易,限制国外农产品进口,其中主要以技术性贸易壁垒为主。韩国越来越高的进口壁垒给中国农产品进入韩国市场带来了很大的挑战。鉴于中韩农产品贸易中的新形势,为了尽可能的减少中国农产品出口韩国时可能遇到的贸易摩擦和出口障碍,因此,有必要对这种新形势下中韩农产品贸易的总体情况以及中国农产品对韩国的出口发展趋势进行系统的研究。
在比较优势理论和竞争优势理论的指导下,本文分析了中韩两国农产品贸易的现状,揭示了中国农产品在韩国的竞争优势,并利用指数分析说明中韩在农产品贸易中的互补性。同时分析了制约中国农产品出口韩国的主要因素,并对中韩两国农产品贸易的发展前景进行了探讨。
引言部分介绍了本文的研究背景和研究意义,前人的研究成果和研究方向,以及本文的主要研究内容。目前关于中韩农产品贸易的研究比较分散。大部分学者集中于研究单一农产品的竞争优势,例如蔬菜、水果和水产品,或是研究中韩农产品贸易的互补性。关于两国贸易争端和未来农业合作的研究也能找到。关于中韩两国农产品贸易的比较优势、竞争力分析和贸易摩擦的系统研究有待于进一步探讨。因此,本文对中国农产品贸易进行了系统的分析。基于两国农业现状,详细分析了两国农产品贸易的贸易现状、贸易摩擦及侧重中国农产品在韩国的竞争优势,同时指出中国农产品出口韩国的制约因素,并提出相应的政策建议。希望本文能对以后的相关研究有理论上的指导,并能对政府政策的制定有现实的参考意义。研究的主要成果如下：
关于中韩农产品贸易的现状,本文从农业现状、农产品贸易概况、相互出口结构、进口市场结构、出口产品相似性及贸易摩擦方面进行了综合分析。中韩两国的农业既有相似性,又存在一定的差异,且由于资源禀赋的不同,决定了中韩之间的农产品贸易互补性与竞争性并存。根据要素禀赋理论,中国在资源密集型或劳动密集型农产品上有比较优势,韩国在技术密集型或资金密集型农产品上有比较优势。中国对韩国的出口农产品相对稳定,且主要集中于几类农产品。中国主要向韩国出口谷物类、鱼等水产品类,油籽类、食用蔬菜、肉鱼制品以及蔬菜水果制品,大部分属于劳动密集型农产品,这符合我国的比较优势产品。同时,制成品在我国农产品出口中的比重日益增加,说明我国的农产品出口结构在逐渐优化和升级。韩国主要向我国出口鱼等水产品类、糖及糖食类、油籽类、食用水果、杂项食品、饮料、酒及醋和谷物、乳等制品,大部分属于高加工产品或技术含量较高的产品,这符合韩国的出口优势产品类型。同时,产品相似性指数分析说明,中韩两国出口到世界市场的农产品存在较高的相似性,未来在世界制成品市场上将面临日益激烈的竞争。
中国对韩农产品贸易一直处于顺差且农产品出口量持续增加,使得韩国加强了对中国农产品的限制,采取关税和非关税壁垒阻碍中国商品进入韩国市场,导致中韩之间的农产品贸易摩擦日益频繁,集中体现在2000年的“大蒜之争”和2005年的“泡菜风波”。这不仅阻碍了中国农产品的出口,也影响了中韩农产品贸易的正常发展。除了韩国政府的限制外,中国农产品在韩国农产品市场上还面临强劲的竞争对手,主要是美国,澳大利亚和巴西。
本文在分析中国对韩出口的农产品竞争性时,利用了市场份额指数、显性比较优势和贸易专业化指数。首先,中国农产品在韩国占有较高的市场份额,基本维持在20%左右。总体上保持上升的趋势,但是有较大波动。其次,区域性显性优势指数分析显示中国的农产品整体在韩国有较高的竞争力,但这种竞争力却在逐渐削弱。再次,贸易专业化指数分析显示,平均水平上除了活植物类和食用水果及坚果类有较低的比较优势,糖及糖食类显示出比较劣势外,农产品的其他类在韩国市场上都显示出较高的比较优势。说明中国出口的劳动密集型农产品在韩国市场都体现出比较优势。同时,在中国出口农产品中制成品的比较优势在上升。
中国主要向韩国出口劳动密集型农产品,像水产品、果蔬产品等；韩国主要向中国出口深加工或技术含量较高的农产品,像食品、饮料和杂项食品等。最后,通过两国之间的贸易互补性指数分析,说明中韩农产品贸易之间存在互补性,但相对较低。而且中国出口韩国进口的互补性指数自建交以来持续下降,但是仍然高于韩国出口中国进口的互补性指数。所以,未来一定时期内中韩农产品贸易将继续保持增长,特别是中国对韩国出口农产品的规模将会继续扩大,未来在农产品贸易方面仍有较大的发展空间。
虽然中国对韩出口的农产品贸易量持续增长,但现实的农产品贸易中仍然存在着较多制约中国农产品向韩国出口的因素。该部分主要依据钻石模型的六个因素方面来分析。第一,我国丰富且廉价的劳动力资源使我国农产品具有低成本和低价格优势,这是促进我国农产品对韩国出口增长的重要因素。但是,我国农产品的规范化程度较低导致农产品质量的整体水平不高,以及较低的质量和安全标准,这已成为制约我国对韩国农产品出口的重要因素。第二,相比韩国,我国国内目前较低的消费层次和结构也不利于我国农产品竞争优势的提升。第三,相关和支持产业的发展不足,缺乏完善的服务支持机制,使我国农产品缺乏与外国产品竞争的支撑。第四,我国农产品出口企业竞争秩序混乱,以低价出口战略抢占市场,这容易引起两国之间的贸易摩擦。第五,在外部影响因素方面,WTO的相关规则,例如《农业协定》、《实施卫生与植物检疫措施协定》和《保障措施协定》,短期内会对我国农产品对韩国出口产生不良的影响。最后,在中韩农产品贸易中政府的政策起着非常重要的作用。韩国政府对本国农业实施高度支持政策,采取较高的关税和非关税壁垒保护本国农业和农产品贸易。而相对来讲,我国政府对本国农业的支持和投入不足,大大阻碍了我国农业的发展和农产品竞争力的提升。总的来说,要想实现我国和韩国农产品贸易的顺利发展,必须采取有效的措施消除或尽量减轻这些制约因素的消极影响。
通过对中韩农产品贸易的系统分析,可以看出中国和韩国在双边农产品贸易中有不同的比较优势。两国农产品贸易的互补性使中韩之间的农产品贸易仍存在较大的发展空间。中国农产品在韩国较强的比较优势将使我国农产品贸易出口继续扩大。从贸易结构来看,两国目前的农产品贸易模式将在相当长的时期内继续维持。中国将继续向韩国出口水产品、园艺产品及其制品。但是由于两国产品在世界市场的相似性,中国和韩国的农产品在世界市场上的竞争将更加激烈,特别是将在深加工产品市场。
随着多双边框架下市场的进一步开放,中国农产品对韩国的出口规模预期会扩大,这将给我国提供很大的机遇。但是,要想将这种潜在的进口预期转化为现实的出口,中国将面临很多障碍。韩国对其国内农业的高度保护,设置越来越高的关税和非关税壁垒来限制中国农产品。因此,中国要进一步开发韩国农产品市场将面临很大的压力。
基于以上的综合分析,本文提出了促进中韩农产品贸易发展的相应对策,如积极推行农业标准化建设,突破质量安全难关；推进农业规模化经营,发展农产品加工产业；加大对农业的财政支持,建立灵活的农业补贴体系;完善农业服务支持机制,发展农产品行业协会；建立技术性贸易预警系统,以应对日益提高的技术性贸易壁垒；两国政府应加强双边交流与合作,努力构建中韩自由贸易区等。所以,中国政府应积极调整农业政策倾向,并认真付诸实施,以保持我国农产品在韩国长期的竞争优势,并促进中韩农产品贸易的健康持续发展。
China has a very long-standing political, economic and cultural and historical origin with the neighboring country of South Korea. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations, the economic and trade relations between the two countries have grown rapidly. By now, South Korea has become the sixth trade partner, the third export market and the second import source land of China; while China ranks first in these fields, beyond Japan's trade status in South Korea. However, with the rapid development of bilateral trade, China's trade deficit to South Korea has increased substantially, which also shows the important role that China's economic development plays on South Korea's economy should not be underestimated. However, it should be noted that in the agricultural trade of the two countries, China has maintained a favorable balance with South Korea all the time. As more and more China's agricultural products are exported to South Korea, the agricultural trade frictions have occurred frequently, which restrains China's agricultural exports to South Korea and affects the normal development of bilateral agricultural trade.
As a pure importing country of agricultural products, due to the vulnerability and fundamental position of agriculture in the national economy, South Korea attaches a great importance to the development of its agriculture and takes high protection measures on its agriculture, especially in recent years more and more non-tariff measures have been used to restrict China's agricultural export. The increasingly high import barrier makes it difficult for China's agricultural products to enter South Korean market. Given the new situations occurring in the agricultural trade, in order to reduce trade frictions and export obstacles as much as possible and promote the healthy development of agricultural trade between China and South Korea, it is necessary to study the overall situations and development potential of China's agricultural exports to South Korea.
Under the guidance of comparative advantage theory and competitive advantage theory, this paper analyzes the current situation of agricultural trade between China and South Korea, and reveals the competitive advantages of China's agricultural products in South Korea and complementarities in their bilateral agricultural trade through the index analysis. The paper also discusses the constraint factors for China's agricultural exports to South Korea based on the six factors of diamond model, as well as predicts the development prospect of the agricultural trade between the two countries.
The introduction part demonstrates the research background, significance of the paper, former research production and research direction, research area and the structure of the paper. The current researches on the agricultural trade between China and South Korea are scattered. Most scholars focus on studying competitive advantages of individual agricultural product, such as vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products, or studying the complementarities of China and South Korea's agricultural trade. The research on agricultural trade disputes and agricultural cooperation in future of the two countries can also be found. The systematic research integrates comparative advantages, competitiveness analysis and trade disputes of agricultural product trade between China and South Korea needs to be further discussed. Therefore, this paper based on an overall summary of current situations of agriculture in both countries, gives a detailed analysis of agricultural trade status, trade frictions, the competitive advantage of China's agricultural products in South Korea, as well as points out restraining factors of China's agricultural exports and put forwards corresponding policy recommendations, in the hope that the research could play not only a theoretical guidance for relative studies in the future but also a practical reference for governmental policies. The main research results of this paper are as follows:
As for the agricultural trade status of China and South Korea, the analysis is conducted in terms of agricultural status, overview of bilateral agricultural trade, export structure of each structure, product similarity in the world market and trade frictions. China has abundant natural resources and rich labor force, and South Korea has advanced technology and sufficient capitals. There are differences in agricultural production conditions, material input level, agricultural production structure and productivities. But both countries have scarce land resource, similar food consumption and similar culture. Therefore, there are both differences and similarities in the agriculture of the two countries, which makes competition and complementarities both exist in the agricultural trade of China and South Korea.
The export structure of China's agricultural exports to South Korea is relatively stable and concentrated on several main categories of agricultural products which mainly include categories of cereals, fish category, oil seeds, edible vegetables, preparations of meat and fish and preparations of vegetables and fruits. This shows China mainly exports labor-intensive agricultural products to South Korea and the proportion of processed products has been increasing. While South Korea mainly exports categories of fish, sugar confectionery, oil seeds, edible fruits, miscellaneous edible preparations, beverages and preparations of cereals and milk, and most are high processed products or products with technology content. Besides, through the product similarity analysis, it can be seen that there is relatively high similarity in the agricultural products exported to the world market, and China and South Korea would face a fierce competition in the word market, especially for processed products. But in the agricultural import market of South Korea, the Unites States, Australia and Brazil are China's major competitors. As more and more China's agricultural products are exported to South Korea, the agricultural trade frictions have occurred frequently in recent year, which causes a severe impact on China's agricultural products.
Based on the export structure of agricultural products, the paper focuses on analyzing the competitive advantage of China's agricultural products in South Korea through several index analysis of the market share, revealed comparative advantage index and trade specialization index, and arrives at the conclusions that China's agricultural products take up a high market share in South Korea's market and have maintained a high competitive advantage as a whole, but have been gradually weakening. At an average level, except for only 2 categories of live trees and other plants and edible fruit and nuts with a lower comparative advantage, and only one category of sugars and sugar confectionery with a comparative disadvantage, the majority of China's agricultural products show high comparative advantages in South Korea. This also indicates that China's labor-intensive products exported to South Korea all have comparative advantages in South Korea. In addition, the comparative advantage of finished products has increased, showing that the finished products among China's agricultural exports to South Korea have developed rapidly in recent years and China's export structure has gradually updated.
China mainly exports labor-intensive agricultural products like aquatic products, vegetable and fruit products to South Korea, and South Korea mainly exports semi-processed or high processed products like food, beverages and miscellaneous edible preparations. Through the trade complementarities index analysis, it is shown that there are complementarities in the agricultural trade between China and South Korea, but not very high. Though keeping declining, the agricultural trade complementarities of China exporting to South Korea are higher than that of South Korea exporting to China. Therefore the agricultural trade between the two countries will keep growing continually; especially the export scale of China's agricultural products to South Korea would expand in a certain period.
Though the trade volume in the bilateral agricultural trade increases rapidly, there are still some factors restricting China's agricultural exports to South Korea. The paper analyzes the restraining factors mainly from six aspects introduced in the diamond model. First, from the perspective of element conditions, the rich and cheap labor force makes China's agricultural products have the comparative advantage of low prices and low costs, which promotes a large number of China's agricultural exports to South Korea. But the low degree of standardization and low standards of quality and safety of China's agricultural products are serious problems impeding its export. The substantial export with low prices can easily cause trade frictions and the low product quality makes the agricultural products difficult to meet the high inspection and quarantine standards in South Korea. Second, the low level of consumer demands is unfavorable to improve the competitiveness of China's agricultural products. Third, the lack of related and supporting industries could not provide strong domestic supports for China's agricultural exports. Fourth, the disordered competitive behavior of export enterprises with an export strategy of low prices could easily cause agricultural trade frictions. Fifth, considering from external factors, China has to accept the restraint of WTO rules when entering WTO. In the short term related WTO agreements like the Agreement on Agriculture, Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, and Ag reement on Safeguards may bring negative influences on China's agricultural exports to South Korea. At last, the two governments conduct different agricultural policies which have great impacts on the agricultural trade between the two countries. The high domestic agricultural support and trade protection measures create a big barrier for China's agricultural products to export to South Korea; on the contrary, the insufficient agricultural support policy in China has not provided enough inputs to develop the agriculture in China. Generally speaking, there are restraint factors existing in different aspects which impeded China's agricultural products to South Korea. Therefore, in order to realize the continuous development of bilateral agricultural trade, effective measures shall be taken to prevent the negative influences of these constraint factors.
On the basis of overall analysis of the agricultural trade between China and South Korea, it can be seen that the two countries have different comparative advantages in agricultural products. China mainly exports labor-intensive agricultural products like aquatic products, vegetable and fruit products to South Korea and the export of processed products is increasing. The agricultural exports have maintained relatively high comparative advantages in South Korea. The complementarities in agriculture of both countries help to further increase the cooperative opportunities in agriculture and agricultural trade. From the trade structure point of view, the current agricultural trade pattern between China and South Korea will maintain in a long term that is, based on comparative advantages China will continue to export aquatic products, horticultural products and related processed products to South Korea. Given the relative high similarities of the agricultural products in the world market, the competition of agricultural trade between China and South Korea will be fiercer, especially for processed products.
With the further opening of market under multilateral and bilateral framework, the export scale of China's agricultural products can be predicted to expand, which will provide some opportunities for China. However, it is difficult for China to change this potential import demand into real export for China has to confront with many obstacles. On the hand, the vulnerability and the important position of agriculture in national economy, South Korea implements high protection policy on its agriculture and agricultural trade. On the other hand, there are not enough agricultural inputs in China. The Chinese government has not established efficient industry chain of agricultural products that is appropriate to participate in the international competition, and effective quality supervision and management system. As a result, China still would face a lot of pressure to expand South Korea's market of agricultural products.
From the competitiveness point of view, China's agricultural products have maintained a strong comparative advantage in South Korean market, but weakening continually. But in order to keep a long-term competitive advantage, China has to update its export structure and develop high processed agricultural exports. At the same time, given South Korea's high protections of agricultural trade, China will provide sufficient supports to its domestic agriculture, as well as strengthen the bilateral negotiation and cooperation in the agricultural field in the future.
In order to improve the competitiveness of China's agricultural product in South Korea, it is necessary for the Chinese government to carry out some effective measures. First, actively promote agricultural standardized construction and improve quality and safety levels. Second, promote agricultural large-scale operation, and develop processing industry of agricultural products. Third, increase financial support for agriculture, and establish a flexible system of agricultural subsidies. Fourth, complete agricultural service support mechanism, and develop agricultural industry associations. Last, strengthen exchanges and cooperation in agricultural field, and establish China-ROK free trade area. Therefore, it is believed that through the positive and efficient efforts of the Chinese government, China could maintain a high competitive advantage of agricultural products in South Korea in the long-term and promote the healthy development of agricultural trade with South Korea.
韩国作为一个农产品的纯进口国,由于其农业的脆弱性及农业在国民经济中的基础地位,韩国非常重视其农业的发展,对国内农业实行了高度保护的政策。近年来,韩国越来越多地采用非关税措施来保护其农产品贸易,限制国外农产品进口,其中主要以技术性贸易壁垒为主。韩国越来越高的进口壁垒给中国农产品进入韩国市场带来了很大的挑战。鉴于中韩农产品贸易中的新形势,为了尽可能的减少中国农产品出口韩国时可能遇到的贸易摩擦和出口障碍,因此,有必要对这种新形势下中韩农产品贸易的总体情况以及中国农产品对韩国的出口发展趋势进行系统的研究。
在比较优势理论和竞争优势理论的指导下,本文分析了中韩两国农产品贸易的现状,揭示了中国农产品在韩国的竞争优势,并利用指数分析说明中韩在农产品贸易中的互补性。同时分析了制约中国农产品出口韩国的主要因素,并对中韩两国农产品贸易的发展前景进行了探讨。
引言部分介绍了本文的研究背景和研究意义,前人的研究成果和研究方向,以及本文的主要研究内容。目前关于中韩农产品贸易的研究比较分散。大部分学者集中于研究单一农产品的竞争优势,例如蔬菜、水果和水产品,或是研究中韩农产品贸易的互补性。关于两国贸易争端和未来农业合作的研究也能找到。关于中韩两国农产品贸易的比较优势、竞争力分析和贸易摩擦的系统研究有待于进一步探讨。因此,本文对中国农产品贸易进行了系统的分析。基于两国农业现状,详细分析了两国农产品贸易的贸易现状、贸易摩擦及侧重中国农产品在韩国的竞争优势,同时指出中国农产品出口韩国的制约因素,并提出相应的政策建议。希望本文能对以后的相关研究有理论上的指导,并能对政府政策的制定有现实的参考意义。研究的主要成果如下：
关于中韩农产品贸易的现状,本文从农业现状、农产品贸易概况、相互出口结构、进口市场结构、出口产品相似性及贸易摩擦方面进行了综合分析。中韩两国的农业既有相似性,又存在一定的差异,且由于资源禀赋的不同,决定了中韩之间的农产品贸易互补性与竞争性并存。根据要素禀赋理论,中国在资源密集型或劳动密集型农产品上有比较优势,韩国在技术密集型或资金密集型农产品上有比较优势。中国对韩国的出口农产品相对稳定,且主要集中于几类农产品。中国主要向韩国出口谷物类、鱼等水产品类,油籽类、食用蔬菜、肉鱼制品以及蔬菜水果制品,大部分属于劳动密集型农产品,这符合我国的比较优势产品。同时,制成品在我国农产品出口中的比重日益增加,说明我国的农产品出口结构在逐渐优化和升级。韩国主要向我国出口鱼等水产品类、糖及糖食类、油籽类、食用水果、杂项食品、饮料、酒及醋和谷物、乳等制品,大部分属于高加工产品或技术含量较高的产品,这符合韩国的出口优势产品类型。同时,产品相似性指数分析说明,中韩两国出口到世界市场的农产品存在较高的相似性,未来在世界制成品市场上将面临日益激烈的竞争。
中国对韩农产品贸易一直处于顺差且农产品出口量持续增加,使得韩国加强了对中国农产品的限制,采取关税和非关税壁垒阻碍中国商品进入韩国市场,导致中韩之间的农产品贸易摩擦日益频繁,集中体现在2000年的“大蒜之争”和2005年的“泡菜风波”。这不仅阻碍了中国农产品的出口,也影响了中韩农产品贸易的正常发展。除了韩国政府的限制外,中国农产品在韩国农产品市场上还面临强劲的竞争对手,主要是美国,澳大利亚和巴西。
本文在分析中国对韩出口的农产品竞争性时,利用了市场份额指数、显性比较优势和贸易专业化指数。首先,中国农产品在韩国占有较高的市场份额,基本维持在20%左右。总体上保持上升的趋势,但是有较大波动。其次,区域性显性优势指数分析显示中国的农产品整体在韩国有较高的竞争力,但这种竞争力却在逐渐削弱。再次,贸易专业化指数分析显示,平均水平上除了活植物类和食用水果及坚果类有较低的比较优势,糖及糖食类显示出比较劣势外,农产品的其他类在韩国市场上都显示出较高的比较优势。说明中国出口的劳动密集型农产品在韩国市场都体现出比较优势。同时,在中国出口农产品中制成品的比较优势在上升。
中国主要向韩国出口劳动密集型农产品,像水产品、果蔬产品等；韩国主要向中国出口深加工或技术含量较高的农产品,像食品、饮料和杂项食品等。最后,通过两国之间的贸易互补性指数分析,说明中韩农产品贸易之间存在互补性,但相对较低。而且中国出口韩国进口的互补性指数自建交以来持续下降,但是仍然高于韩国出口中国进口的互补性指数。所以,未来一定时期内中韩农产品贸易将继续保持增长,特别是中国对韩国出口农产品的规模将会继续扩大,未来在农产品贸易方面仍有较大的发展空间。
虽然中国对韩出口的农产品贸易量持续增长,但现实的农产品贸易中仍然存在着较多制约中国农产品向韩国出口的因素。该部分主要依据钻石模型的六个因素方面来分析。第一,我国丰富且廉价的劳动力资源使我国农产品具有低成本和低价格优势,这是促进我国农产品对韩国出口增长的重要因素。但是,我国农产品的规范化程度较低导致农产品质量的整体水平不高,以及较低的质量和安全标准,这已成为制约我国对韩国农产品出口的重要因素。第二,相比韩国,我国国内目前较低的消费层次和结构也不利于我国农产品竞争优势的提升。第三,相关和支持产业的发展不足,缺乏完善的服务支持机制,使我国农产品缺乏与外国产品竞争的支撑。第四,我国农产品出口企业竞争秩序混乱,以低价出口战略抢占市场,这容易引起两国之间的贸易摩擦。第五,在外部影响因素方面,WTO的相关规则,例如《农业协定》、《实施卫生与植物检疫措施协定》和《保障措施协定》,短期内会对我国农产品对韩国出口产生不良的影响。最后,在中韩农产品贸易中政府的政策起着非常重要的作用。韩国政府对本国农业实施高度支持政策,采取较高的关税和非关税壁垒保护本国农业和农产品贸易。而相对来讲,我国政府对本国农业的支持和投入不足,大大阻碍了我国农业的发展和农产品竞争力的提升。总的来说,要想实现我国和韩国农产品贸易的顺利发展,必须采取有效的措施消除或尽量减轻这些制约因素的消极影响。
通过对中韩农产品贸易的系统分析,可以看出中国和韩国在双边农产品贸易中有不同的比较优势。两国农产品贸易的互补性使中韩之间的农产品贸易仍存在较大的发展空间。中国农产品在韩国较强的比较优势将使我国农产品贸易出口继续扩大。从贸易结构来看,两国目前的农产品贸易模式将在相当长的时期内继续维持。中国将继续向韩国出口水产品、园艺产品及其制品。但是由于两国产品在世界市场的相似性,中国和韩国的农产品在世界市场上的竞争将更加激烈,特别是将在深加工产品市场。
随着多双边框架下市场的进一步开放,中国农产品对韩国的出口规模预期会扩大,这将给我国提供很大的机遇。但是,要想将这种潜在的进口预期转化为现实的出口,中国将面临很多障碍。韩国对其国内农业的高度保护,设置越来越高的关税和非关税壁垒来限制中国农产品。因此,中国要进一步开发韩国农产品市场将面临很大的压力。
基于以上的综合分析,本文提出了促进中韩农产品贸易发展的相应对策,如积极推行农业标准化建设,突破质量安全难关；推进农业规模化经营,发展农产品加工产业；加大对农业的财政支持,建立灵活的农业补贴体系;完善农业服务支持机制,发展农产品行业协会；建立技术性贸易预警系统,以应对日益提高的技术性贸易壁垒；两国政府应加强双边交流与合作,努力构建中韩自由贸易区等。所以,中国政府应积极调整农业政策倾向,并认真付诸实施,以保持我国农产品在韩国长期的竞争优势,并促进中韩农产品贸易的健康持续发展。
China has a very long-standing political, economic and cultural and historical origin with the neighboring country of South Korea. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations, the economic and trade relations between the two countries have grown rapidly. By now, South Korea has become the sixth trade partner, the third export market and the second import source land of China; while China ranks first in these fields, beyond Japan's trade status in South Korea. However, with the rapid development of bilateral trade, China's trade deficit to South Korea has increased substantially, which also shows the important role that China's economic development plays on South Korea's economy should not be underestimated. However, it should be noted that in the agricultural trade of the two countries, China has maintained a favorable balance with South Korea all the time. As more and more China's agricultural products are exported to South Korea, the agricultural trade frictions have occurred frequently, which restrains China's agricultural exports to South Korea and affects the normal development of bilateral agricultural trade.
As a pure importing country of agricultural products, due to the vulnerability and fundamental position of agriculture in the national economy, South Korea attaches a great importance to the development of its agriculture and takes high protection measures on its agriculture, especially in recent years more and more non-tariff measures have been used to restrict China's agricultural export. The increasingly high import barrier makes it difficult for China's agricultural products to enter South Korean market. Given the new situations occurring in the agricultural trade, in order to reduce trade frictions and export obstacles as much as possible and promote the healthy development of agricultural trade between China and South Korea, it is necessary to study the overall situations and development potential of China's agricultural exports to South Korea.
Under the guidance of comparative advantage theory and competitive advantage theory, this paper analyzes the current situation of agricultural trade between China and South Korea, and reveals the competitive advantages of China's agricultural products in South Korea and complementarities in their bilateral agricultural trade through the index analysis. The paper also discusses the constraint factors for China's agricultural exports to South Korea based on the six factors of diamond model, as well as predicts the development prospect of the agricultural trade between the two countries.
The introduction part demonstrates the research background, significance of the paper, former research production and research direction, research area and the structure of the paper. The current researches on the agricultural trade between China and South Korea are scattered. Most scholars focus on studying competitive advantages of individual agricultural product, such as vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products, or studying the complementarities of China and South Korea's agricultural trade. The research on agricultural trade disputes and agricultural cooperation in future of the two countries can also be found. The systematic research integrates comparative advantages, competitiveness analysis and trade disputes of agricultural product trade between China and South Korea needs to be further discussed. Therefore, this paper based on an overall summary of current situations of agriculture in both countries, gives a detailed analysis of agricultural trade status, trade frictions, the competitive advantage of China's agricultural products in South Korea, as well as points out restraining factors of China's agricultural exports and put forwards corresponding policy recommendations, in the hope that the research could play not only a theoretical guidance for relative studies in the future but also a practical reference for governmental policies. The main research results of this paper are as follows:
As for the agricultural trade status of China and South Korea, the analysis is conducted in terms of agricultural status, overview of bilateral agricultural trade, export structure of each structure, product similarity in the world market and trade frictions. China has abundant natural resources and rich labor force, and South Korea has advanced technology and sufficient capitals. There are differences in agricultural production conditions, material input level, agricultural production structure and productivities. But both countries have scarce land resource, similar food consumption and similar culture. Therefore, there are both differences and similarities in the agriculture of the two countries, which makes competition and complementarities both exist in the agricultural trade of China and South Korea.
The export structure of China's agricultural exports to South Korea is relatively stable and concentrated on several main categories of agricultural products which mainly include categories of cereals, fish category, oil seeds, edible vegetables, preparations of meat and fish and preparations of vegetables and fruits. This shows China mainly exports labor-intensive agricultural products to South Korea and the proportion of processed products has been increasing. While South Korea mainly exports categories of fish, sugar confectionery, oil seeds, edible fruits, miscellaneous edible preparations, beverages and preparations of cereals and milk, and most are high processed products or products with technology content. Besides, through the product similarity analysis, it can be seen that there is relatively high similarity in the agricultural products exported to the world market, and China and South Korea would face a fierce competition in the word market, especially for processed products. But in the agricultural import market of South Korea, the Unites States, Australia and Brazil are China's major competitors. As more and more China's agricultural products are exported to South Korea, the agricultural trade frictions have occurred frequently in recent year, which causes a severe impact on China's agricultural products.
Based on the export structure of agricultural products, the paper focuses on analyzing the competitive advantage of China's agricultural products in South Korea through several index analysis of the market share, revealed comparative advantage index and trade specialization index, and arrives at the conclusions that China's agricultural products take up a high market share in South Korea's market and have maintained a high competitive advantage as a whole, but have been gradually weakening. At an average level, except for only 2 categories of live trees and other plants and edible fruit and nuts with a lower comparative advantage, and only one category of sugars and sugar confectionery with a comparative disadvantage, the majority of China's agricultural products show high comparative advantages in South Korea. This also indicates that China's labor-intensive products exported to South Korea all have comparative advantages in South Korea. In addition, the comparative advantage of finished products has increased, showing that the finished products among China's agricultural exports to South Korea have developed rapidly in recent years and China's export structure has gradually updated.
China mainly exports labor-intensive agricultural products like aquatic products, vegetable and fruit products to South Korea, and South Korea mainly exports semi-processed or high processed products like food, beverages and miscellaneous edible preparations. Through the trade complementarities index analysis, it is shown that there are complementarities in the agricultural trade between China and South Korea, but not very high. Though keeping declining, the agricultural trade complementarities of China exporting to South Korea are higher than that of South Korea exporting to China. Therefore the agricultural trade between the two countries will keep growing continually; especially the export scale of China's agricultural products to South Korea would expand in a certain period.
Though the trade volume in the bilateral agricultural trade increases rapidly, there are still some factors restricting China's agricultural exports to South Korea. The paper analyzes the restraining factors mainly from six aspects introduced in the diamond model. First, from the perspective of element conditions, the rich and cheap labor force makes China's agricultural products have the comparative advantage of low prices and low costs, which promotes a large number of China's agricultural exports to South Korea. But the low degree of standardization and low standards of quality and safety of China's agricultural products are serious problems impeding its export. The substantial export with low prices can easily cause trade frictions and the low product quality makes the agricultural products difficult to meet the high inspection and quarantine standards in South Korea. Second, the low level of consumer demands is unfavorable to improve the competitiveness of China's agricultural products. Third, the lack of related and supporting industries could not provide strong domestic supports for China's agricultural exports. Fourth, the disordered competitive behavior of export enterprises with an export strategy of low prices could easily cause agricultural trade frictions. Fifth, considering from external factors, China has to accept the restraint of WTO rules when entering WTO. In the short term related WTO agreements like the Agreement on Agriculture, Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, and Ag reement on Safeguards may bring negative influences on China's agricultural exports to South Korea. At last, the two governments conduct different agricultural policies which have great impacts on the agricultural trade between the two countries. The high domestic agricultural support and trade protection measures create a big barrier for China's agricultural products to export to South Korea; on the contrary, the insufficient agricultural support policy in China has not provided enough inputs to develop the agriculture in China. Generally speaking, there are restraint factors existing in different aspects which impeded China's agricultural products to South Korea. Therefore, in order to realize the continuous development of bilateral agricultural trade, effective measures shall be taken to prevent the negative influences of these constraint factors.
On the basis of overall analysis of the agricultural trade between China and South Korea, it can be seen that the two countries have different comparative advantages in agricultural products. China mainly exports labor-intensive agricultural products like aquatic products, vegetable and fruit products to South Korea and the export of processed products is increasing. The agricultural exports have maintained relatively high comparative advantages in South Korea. The complementarities in agriculture of both countries help to further increase the cooperative opportunities in agriculture and agricultural trade. From the trade structure point of view, the current agricultural trade pattern between China and South Korea will maintain in a long term that is, based on comparative advantages China will continue to export aquatic products, horticultural products and related processed products to South Korea. Given the relative high similarities of the agricultural products in the world market, the competition of agricultural trade between China and South Korea will be fiercer, especially for processed products.
With the further opening of market under multilateral and bilateral framework, the export scale of China's agricultural products can be predicted to expand, which will provide some opportunities for China. However, it is difficult for China to change this potential import demand into real export for China has to confront with many obstacles. On the hand, the vulnerability and the important position of agriculture in national economy, South Korea implements high protection policy on its agriculture and agricultural trade. On the other hand, there are not enough agricultural inputs in China. The Chinese government has not established efficient industry chain of agricultural products that is appropriate to participate in the international competition, and effective quality supervision and management system. As a result, China still would face a lot of pressure to expand South Korea's market of agricultural products.
From the competitiveness point of view, China's agricultural products have maintained a strong comparative advantage in South Korean market, but weakening continually. But in order to keep a long-term competitive advantage, China has to update its export structure and develop high processed agricultural exports. At the same time, given South Korea's high protections of agricultural trade, China will provide sufficient supports to its domestic agriculture, as well as strengthen the bilateral negotiation and cooperation in the agricultural field in the future.
In order to improve the competitiveness of China's agricultural product in South Korea, it is necessary for the Chinese government to carry out some effective measures. First, actively promote agricultural standardized construction and improve quality and safety levels. Second, promote agricultural large-scale operation, and develop processing industry of agricultural products. Third, increase financial support for agriculture, and establish a flexible system of agricultural subsidies. Fourth, complete agricultural service support mechanism, and develop agricultural industry associations. Last, strengthen exchanges and cooperation in agricultural field, and establish China-ROK free trade area. Therefore, it is believed that through the positive and efficient efforts of the Chinese government, China could maintain a high competitive advantage of agricultural products in South Korea in the long-term and promote the healthy development of agricultural trade with South Korea.
引文
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