中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易的影响研究
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摘要
中国—东盟自由贸易区是中国顺应区域经济一体化这一潮流正式加入的第一个区域经济一体化组织。2001年11月4日,《中国一东盟全面经济合作框架协议》的正式签署,标志着中国—东盟自由贸易区谈判的正式启动。云南位于中国与东盟诸国毗邻区域,与东盟的越南、老挝、缅甸3国接壤,是中国参与澜沧江—湄公河区域国际合作的主要省份。随着中国—东盟自由贸易区的逐步建立,云南面临着扩大开放、加快发展的千载难逢的历史机遇。同时,中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立,必将给云南的货物贸易带来巨大的影响。
本文从区域经济一体化的理论研究出发,在此基础上以建立中国—东盟自由贸易区给中国带来的贸易效应为引线,着重研究了该自由贸易区的构建对云南和东盟各国之间的货物贸易产生的影响和贸易创造效应,最后对云南利用建立中国—东盟自由贸易区这一机遇发展货物贸易提出了对策建议。全文共分为五个部分：第一部分,主要是对研究背景、研究意义、相关的研究理论和研究方法做了说明；第二部分,分析了中国—东盟自由贸易区的概况,并且从关税减让角度和比较优势角度分析了中国—东盟自由贸易区带来的贸易效应;第三部分,主要是对中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易发展产生的影响做了SWOT分析；第四部分,是对中国—东盟自由贸易区构建对云南货物贸易出口的效应的分析；第五部分是文章的结论部分,包括结论,对策建议,本文的主要创新点以及研究工作展望。
本文的主要创新点有两个,第一是借助近几年来贸易统计数据,使用表格、文字等方法进行了对比分析,进而对中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易发展的影响进行了SWOT分析。第二是分别基于关税减让角度、非关税壁垒降低角度和比较优势角度,对中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易的出口效应做了较为详细的分析。本文虽然都对中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易的贸易效应做了一些分析,但是从研究范围来看,还可以从进口方面来对该自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易的贸易效应进行分析；从研究方法来看,还可以运用模型对这些贸易效应进行实证分析,这些都是本文在广度与深度上可以继续拓展的地方。
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is the first regional economy integrative organization that China joined formally. On November 4th,2001, the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between the People's Republic of China and ASEAN (the Association of South East Asian Nations) has been signed, which marks the launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area officially negotiations. Yunnan province locates in adjacent areas of China and the ASEAN countries, and borders with Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar. It is one of the major provinces of China which participate in international cooperation of the Lancang River-Mekong River regional. With the gradual establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, Yunnan is facing a golden opportunity of expanding opening and accelerating the development of economy. At the same time, the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will give a huge impact on goods trade of Yunnan.
This essay proceeds from the theory of regional economic integration, and on this basis, it makes the trade effect of China from the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area as the lead, and focus on the implications of goods trade in Yunnan and the trade creation effect to goods trade of Yunnan which comes from the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. At last, this essay proposes some suggestions about Yunnan how to use the opportunity of the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area better to develop the goods trade in Yunnan. This thesis is divided into five chapters. In the first chapter, it does some instructions about the research background, Research Significance, Related theories and research methods. In the second chapter, it analyzes the overview of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and studies the trade effect brought by China-ASEAN Free Trade Area from the point of view of tariff concessions and comparative advantage. In the third chapter, it does a SWOT analysis concerning the influence on goods trade in Yunnan, which was brought by the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. In the forth chapter, it is an analysis of the effects about exports of goods in Yunnan which come from the building of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. The fifth part is the article's conclusion part, including conclusions, countermeasures, this paper's main innovation, and research prospects.
This paper has two main innovations. The first is that by drawing on statistical data of trade in recent years, the author conducted a SWOT analysis concerning the influence of the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the development of trade in goods in Yunnan. The Second is that respectively based on view of tariff reductions, non-tariff barriers and comparative advantages, this paper did a more detailed analysis concerning export effect of the construction of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on trade in goods in Yunnan. Although this paper did some analysis regarding the influence of the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the development of trade in goods in Yunnan. However, concerning the scope of the study, it is also available to analyze from the view of import. Meanwhile, concerning the method of the study, we can also conduct empirical analysis of these trade effects by using model. The above are some aspects that can be expanded in breadth and depth.
本文从区域经济一体化的理论研究出发,在此基础上以建立中国—东盟自由贸易区给中国带来的贸易效应为引线,着重研究了该自由贸易区的构建对云南和东盟各国之间的货物贸易产生的影响和贸易创造效应,最后对云南利用建立中国—东盟自由贸易区这一机遇发展货物贸易提出了对策建议。全文共分为五个部分：第一部分,主要是对研究背景、研究意义、相关的研究理论和研究方法做了说明；第二部分,分析了中国—东盟自由贸易区的概况,并且从关税减让角度和比较优势角度分析了中国—东盟自由贸易区带来的贸易效应;第三部分,主要是对中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易发展产生的影响做了SWOT分析；第四部分,是对中国—东盟自由贸易区构建对云南货物贸易出口的效应的分析；第五部分是文章的结论部分,包括结论,对策建议,本文的主要创新点以及研究工作展望。
本文的主要创新点有两个,第一是借助近几年来贸易统计数据,使用表格、文字等方法进行了对比分析,进而对中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易发展的影响进行了SWOT分析。第二是分别基于关税减让角度、非关税壁垒降低角度和比较优势角度,对中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易的出口效应做了较为详细的分析。本文虽然都对中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易的贸易效应做了一些分析,但是从研究范围来看,还可以从进口方面来对该自由贸易区的构建对云南货物贸易的贸易效应进行分析；从研究方法来看,还可以运用模型对这些贸易效应进行实证分析,这些都是本文在广度与深度上可以继续拓展的地方。
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is the first regional economy integrative organization that China joined formally. On November 4th,2001, the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between the People's Republic of China and ASEAN (the Association of South East Asian Nations) has been signed, which marks the launch of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area officially negotiations. Yunnan province locates in adjacent areas of China and the ASEAN countries, and borders with Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar. It is one of the major provinces of China which participate in international cooperation of the Lancang River-Mekong River regional. With the gradual establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, Yunnan is facing a golden opportunity of expanding opening and accelerating the development of economy. At the same time, the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will give a huge impact on goods trade of Yunnan.
This essay proceeds from the theory of regional economic integration, and on this basis, it makes the trade effect of China from the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area as the lead, and focus on the implications of goods trade in Yunnan and the trade creation effect to goods trade of Yunnan which comes from the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. At last, this essay proposes some suggestions about Yunnan how to use the opportunity of the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area better to develop the goods trade in Yunnan. This thesis is divided into five chapters. In the first chapter, it does some instructions about the research background, Research Significance, Related theories and research methods. In the second chapter, it analyzes the overview of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and studies the trade effect brought by China-ASEAN Free Trade Area from the point of view of tariff concessions and comparative advantage. In the third chapter, it does a SWOT analysis concerning the influence on goods trade in Yunnan, which was brought by the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. In the forth chapter, it is an analysis of the effects about exports of goods in Yunnan which come from the building of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. The fifth part is the article's conclusion part, including conclusions, countermeasures, this paper's main innovation, and research prospects.
This paper has two main innovations. The first is that by drawing on statistical data of trade in recent years, the author conducted a SWOT analysis concerning the influence of the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the development of trade in goods in Yunnan. The Second is that respectively based on view of tariff reductions, non-tariff barriers and comparative advantages, this paper did a more detailed analysis concerning export effect of the construction of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on trade in goods in Yunnan. Although this paper did some analysis regarding the influence of the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the development of trade in goods in Yunnan. However, concerning the scope of the study, it is also available to analyze from the view of import. Meanwhile, concerning the method of the study, we can also conduct empirical analysis of these trade effects by using model. The above are some aspects that can be expanded in breadth and depth.
引文
[1]车志敏.云南参与中冒—东盟自由贸易区建设的基本构想[J].中国—东盟贸易、投资和发展合作国际研讨会文集,2002(6).
[2][2]车志敏.云南参与中国—东盟自由贸易区建设的基本构想[J].中国—东盟贸易、投资和发展合作国际研讨会交流论文,2002.
[3]陈乔之主编：东亚区域经济合作研究[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2002.
[4]陈康.中国—东盟自由贸易区及其经济效应分析[J].国际商务研究,2005(5).
[5]陈叶.中国—东盟自由贸易区的前景分析[J].经济研究导刊,2007(11).
[6]程永照.云南烟草发展的战略机遇[J].烟草科学研究,2003(3)
[7]贺圣达,陈明华编：世纪之交的东盟与中国[M].昆明：云南民族出版社,2001.
[8]何惠刚.中国—东盟自由贸易区的经济效应分析[J].云南社会科学,2006(03)
[9]胡均民.中国东盟自由贸易区：贸易趋势与效应分析[J].改革与战略,2005(3)
[10]克鲁格曼,奥伯斯法尔德.国际经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[11]李炜.中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易效应浅析[J].洛阳师范学院学报,2007(4)
[12]李达昌.抓住建立中国—东盟自由贸易区的机遇,加大力度推动四川与东盟的经贸合作[J].中国—东盟贸易、投资和发展合作国际研讨会交流论文,2002.
[13]林德特,金德尔伯格.国际经济学[M].上海：上海译文出版社,1985.
[14]陆建人主编：东盟的今天与明天[M],北京：经济管理出版社,1999.
[15]陆建人主编：东盟发展趋势及其在亚太地区的地位[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2000(1).
[16]迈克尔.波特.竞争优势(中文版)[M],北京：华夏出版社,1997.
[17]小岛清.对外贸易论[M].天津：南开大学出版社中译本,1987.
[18]史智宇.中国与东盟国家的出口相似性比较[J].比较研究,2004(2)
[19]孙恒忠、张毓茜.中国西南在中国—东盟自由贸易区中的区位优势与发展机遇[J].贵州财经学院院报,2005(2)
[20]王学柏,李荣林.中国—东盟自由贸易区的比较优势与效应分析[J].天津师范大学学报(社会科学版),2006(01).
[21]王磊.中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易效应分析[J].南京农业大学学报社会科学版,2004(4).
[22]张幼文,世界经济一体化的历程,上海：学林出版社.1999.
[23]吴轶江.构建中国—东盟自由贸易区云南面临的机遇与挑战[J].云南行政学院学报,2004(1)
[24]许宁宁.营造中草药与东盟之间企业合作发展的新空间[J].中国—东盟贸易、投资和发展合作国际研讨会交流论文,2002.
[25]许宁宁.来自东南亚的商机报告[M].北京：华夏出版社,2002.
[26]杨宇白,李一峰.云南对外开放与东盟经济合作[J].经济问题探索,2007(8).
[27]张伟,张梅蓉.论云南在中国—东盟自由贸易区构建过程中面临的挑战[J].经济问题探索,2004(7).
[28]张邠.云南对外贸易发展与前景分析[J].云南民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(9)
[29]张烨.建立中国—东盟自由贸易区的理论分析[M].福州：福建论坛经济社会版,2002(10).
[30]张帆.建立中国—东盟自由贸易区的贸易与投资效应分析[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, No.5,2002.
[31]张鑫炜.东盟—中国自由贸易区前景分析[J].国际经济合作,2002(6)
[32]ASEAN Secretariat Forging Closer ASEAN-China Economic Relations in the 21Century [J]. ASEAN-China Export Group on Economic Cooperation Report,2001.
[33]Avinash Dixit, Victor Norman. Theory of International Trade [M]. Shanghai: Shanghai University of Finance Economics Press,2005(1).
[34]Balassa. B. Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market [J]. The economic Journal. No.305.
[35]Bird, Graham, Ramkishen Rajan. Is There a Case for an Asian Monetary Fund? [J]. Presented at the Asian Development Forum, Singapore,5-8 June,2000.
[36]Chalongphob Sussangkarn. East Asian Cooperation Paper presented at Conference Hakone[J], Japan, Sept.29,2000.
[37]F. Machlup. A History of Thought on Economic Integration [M]. Macmillan Press, 1997.
[38]J. Menon. Trade Liberalization and Intra—Industry Specialization:The Australian Experience Center of Policy Studies (COPS) [M]. General Paper, June 1994. Reprinted December 1999.
[39]Luttwak, E. Turbo-Capitalism:Winner & Losers in the Global Economy [J]. Paper back,2000.
[40]Meade. J. E.'The theory of Customs Unions'Amsterdam [M]. Holland:North Holland Publishing company.1995.
[41]Olarm Chapravat. Toward a regional financing arrangement in East Asia [J], ADB/IMA Symposium, May.10,2001.
[42]Peter Robson. The Economics of International Integration [J]. London and Univin Hyman Ltd.1989.
[43]Ronald, Palmer and Thomas J. Rockford. Building ASEAN [M].20Years of Southeast Asian Cooperation, New York:Pager Publishers,1987.
[44]Stanfield, J. R. The Institutional Economics of Karl Polanyi [J]. Journal of Economic Issues, No.3,1980.
[2][2]车志敏.云南参与中国—东盟自由贸易区建设的基本构想[J].中国—东盟贸易、投资和发展合作国际研讨会交流论文,2002.
[3]陈乔之主编：东亚区域经济合作研究[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2002.
[4]陈康.中国—东盟自由贸易区及其经济效应分析[J].国际商务研究,2005(5).
[5]陈叶.中国—东盟自由贸易区的前景分析[J].经济研究导刊,2007(11).
[6]程永照.云南烟草发展的战略机遇[J].烟草科学研究,2003(3)
[7]贺圣达,陈明华编：世纪之交的东盟与中国[M].昆明：云南民族出版社,2001.
[8]何惠刚.中国—东盟自由贸易区的经济效应分析[J].云南社会科学,2006(03)
[9]胡均民.中国东盟自由贸易区：贸易趋势与效应分析[J].改革与战略,2005(3)
[10]克鲁格曼,奥伯斯法尔德.国际经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[11]李炜.中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易效应浅析[J].洛阳师范学院学报,2007(4)
[12]李达昌.抓住建立中国—东盟自由贸易区的机遇,加大力度推动四川与东盟的经贸合作[J].中国—东盟贸易、投资和发展合作国际研讨会交流论文,2002.
[13]林德特,金德尔伯格.国际经济学[M].上海：上海译文出版社,1985.
[14]陆建人主编：东盟的今天与明天[M],北京：经济管理出版社,1999.
[15]陆建人主编：东盟发展趋势及其在亚太地区的地位[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2000(1).
[16]迈克尔.波特.竞争优势(中文版)[M],北京：华夏出版社,1997.
[17]小岛清.对外贸易论[M].天津：南开大学出版社中译本,1987.
[18]史智宇.中国与东盟国家的出口相似性比较[J].比较研究,2004(2)
[19]孙恒忠、张毓茜.中国西南在中国—东盟自由贸易区中的区位优势与发展机遇[J].贵州财经学院院报,2005(2)
[20]王学柏,李荣林.中国—东盟自由贸易区的比较优势与效应分析[J].天津师范大学学报(社会科学版),2006(01).
[21]王磊.中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易效应分析[J].南京农业大学学报社会科学版,2004(4).
[22]张幼文,世界经济一体化的历程,上海：学林出版社.1999.
[23]吴轶江.构建中国—东盟自由贸易区云南面临的机遇与挑战[J].云南行政学院学报,2004(1)
[24]许宁宁.营造中草药与东盟之间企业合作发展的新空间[J].中国—东盟贸易、投资和发展合作国际研讨会交流论文,2002.
[25]许宁宁.来自东南亚的商机报告[M].北京：华夏出版社,2002.
[26]杨宇白,李一峰.云南对外开放与东盟经济合作[J].经济问题探索,2007(8).
[27]张伟,张梅蓉.论云南在中国—东盟自由贸易区构建过程中面临的挑战[J].经济问题探索,2004(7).
[28]张邠.云南对外贸易发展与前景分析[J].云南民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(9)
[29]张烨.建立中国—东盟自由贸易区的理论分析[M].福州：福建论坛经济社会版,2002(10).
[30]张帆.建立中国—东盟自由贸易区的贸易与投资效应分析[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, No.5,2002.
[31]张鑫炜.东盟—中国自由贸易区前景分析[J].国际经济合作,2002(6)
[32]ASEAN Secretariat Forging Closer ASEAN-China Economic Relations in the 21Century [J]. ASEAN-China Export Group on Economic Cooperation Report,2001.
[33]Avinash Dixit, Victor Norman. Theory of International Trade [M]. Shanghai: Shanghai University of Finance Economics Press,2005(1).
[34]Balassa. B. Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market [J]. The economic Journal. No.305.
[35]Bird, Graham, Ramkishen Rajan. Is There a Case for an Asian Monetary Fund? [J]. Presented at the Asian Development Forum, Singapore,5-8 June,2000.
[36]Chalongphob Sussangkarn. East Asian Cooperation Paper presented at Conference Hakone[J], Japan, Sept.29,2000.
[37]F. Machlup. A History of Thought on Economic Integration [M]. Macmillan Press, 1997.
[38]J. Menon. Trade Liberalization and Intra—Industry Specialization:The Australian Experience Center of Policy Studies (COPS) [M]. General Paper, June 1994. Reprinted December 1999.
[39]Luttwak, E. Turbo-Capitalism:Winner & Losers in the Global Economy [J]. Paper back,2000.
[40]Meade. J. E.'The theory of Customs Unions'Amsterdam [M]. Holland:North Holland Publishing company.1995.
[41]Olarm Chapravat. Toward a regional financing arrangement in East Asia [J], ADB/IMA Symposium, May.10,2001.
[42]Peter Robson. The Economics of International Integration [J]. London and Univin Hyman Ltd.1989.
[43]Ronald, Palmer and Thomas J. Rockford. Building ASEAN [M].20Years of Southeast Asian Cooperation, New York:Pager Publishers,1987.
[44]Stanfield, J. R. The Institutional Economics of Karl Polanyi [J]. Journal of Economic Issues, No.3,1980.