广东省产业结构调整与劳动力需求关系研究
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摘要
在现代国家和区域经济增长中,劳动力要素的重要性越来越明显。广东省既是经济大省,也是人口大省,丰富的劳动力资源与经济高速增长之间存在怎样的关系?劳动力要素对经济增长贡献有多少?在未来产业结构不断升级和主体功能区建设不断推进的过程中,劳动力市场又会呈现出怎么样的变化?上述问题的回答对于提升劳动力要素在经济增长中的贡献具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。
本文围绕劳动力要素在经济增长中的贡献这一主题开展。首先,对文中涉及的经济增长理论、产业结构变动理论以及主体功能区等理论进行了简要的回顾,阐述劳动力要素对经济增长的重要作用；其次,以1978年-2008年的历史数据为基础,对改革开放以来广东省经济增长特征进行了分析和总结,从中发现对同一省份进行分区域研究的必要性,进而采用聚类分析方法将广东省划分为四类不同的经济区域；接着,利用分要素人口预测法,对四类经济区域的劳动力年龄人口供给情况展开预测,与此同时,引入包含人力资本存量的新经济增长模型,计算出四类区域不同的经济增长路径以及劳动力要素在四类区域经济增长中的不同作用,并利用经济增长模型对未来期望经济增长路径下的劳动力需求进行测算；最后,通过对劳动力需求和供给状况的对比研究,获得相应的结论和对策启示。
研究结果表明：改革开放以来,广东省不同区域经济增长方式差异大,劳动力要素对不同区域经济增长的作用区别明显；劳动力质量的提高对经济增长的贡献高于劳动力数量；未来劳动力要素对经济增长的贡献将受到一定的制约。为充分发挥劳动力要素对经济增长的推动作用,根据广东省的实际情况,提出以下建议：积极发挥政府导向作用,制订合理的区域发展规划；建立产业结构与人力资本协同发展机制；完善人口管理政策；加大教育投资力度,积累高端化的劳动力资源。
In the modern national and regional economic growth, the factor of labor plays a more and more important role. In China, Guangdong is a major economy province as well as a major population province. What is the relation between the rich labor resources and the economic growth? How much contribution the labor factor can bring to the economic growth? During the upgrading of industrial structures and the construction of main functional areas in the future, what will the labor market in Guangdong province change? These answers to the problems above are of great theoretical and practical meaning in promoting the contributions of the labor factor to the economic growth.
Regarding the subject of the contributions of labor factor to the economic growth, this dissertation first reviewed the theories of economic growth,industrial structure and main functional areas, and elaborated the important role of labor factor played in the economic growth;second summed up the characters and trends of the economic growth in Guangdong province since the reform and opening up.In this process, we found it was necessary to conduct the sub-regional studies,so we used the cluster analysis method and divided the Guangdong province into four different economic regions;third forecasted the number of people at the labor age by the puly-factor componging method, and introduced the new growth pattern with the human capital stock to calculate the economic growth models and contribution rates of labor factor in the four different regions,then forecasted the number of labor demand by the economic growth path in the future;last compared the number of the labor demand and supply, and obtained some conclusions and recommendations.
The results show that:since the reform and opening up, there are large differences existing in Guangdong regional economic growth, and the discrimination of the role of labor factor played in regional economic growth are very significant; the contribution to economic growth of labor quality is higher than the labor quantity; the role of the labor factor played in economic growth will be restricted in future. With the actual situation in Guangdong Province, this article proposed relevant recommendations:giving full play of the guiding role of the government to formulate reasonable regional development plans;establishing a system of coordinated development between industrial structure and the human capital; improving the population management policy; increasing education investment and accumulating the human capital in high-end.
本文围绕劳动力要素在经济增长中的贡献这一主题开展。首先,对文中涉及的经济增长理论、产业结构变动理论以及主体功能区等理论进行了简要的回顾,阐述劳动力要素对经济增长的重要作用；其次,以1978年-2008年的历史数据为基础,对改革开放以来广东省经济增长特征进行了分析和总结,从中发现对同一省份进行分区域研究的必要性,进而采用聚类分析方法将广东省划分为四类不同的经济区域；接着,利用分要素人口预测法,对四类经济区域的劳动力年龄人口供给情况展开预测,与此同时,引入包含人力资本存量的新经济增长模型,计算出四类区域不同的经济增长路径以及劳动力要素在四类区域经济增长中的不同作用,并利用经济增长模型对未来期望经济增长路径下的劳动力需求进行测算；最后,通过对劳动力需求和供给状况的对比研究,获得相应的结论和对策启示。
研究结果表明：改革开放以来,广东省不同区域经济增长方式差异大,劳动力要素对不同区域经济增长的作用区别明显；劳动力质量的提高对经济增长的贡献高于劳动力数量；未来劳动力要素对经济增长的贡献将受到一定的制约。为充分发挥劳动力要素对经济增长的推动作用,根据广东省的实际情况,提出以下建议：积极发挥政府导向作用,制订合理的区域发展规划；建立产业结构与人力资本协同发展机制；完善人口管理政策；加大教育投资力度,积累高端化的劳动力资源。
In the modern national and regional economic growth, the factor of labor plays a more and more important role. In China, Guangdong is a major economy province as well as a major population province. What is the relation between the rich labor resources and the economic growth? How much contribution the labor factor can bring to the economic growth? During the upgrading of industrial structures and the construction of main functional areas in the future, what will the labor market in Guangdong province change? These answers to the problems above are of great theoretical and practical meaning in promoting the contributions of the labor factor to the economic growth.
Regarding the subject of the contributions of labor factor to the economic growth, this dissertation first reviewed the theories of economic growth,industrial structure and main functional areas, and elaborated the important role of labor factor played in the economic growth;second summed up the characters and trends of the economic growth in Guangdong province since the reform and opening up.In this process, we found it was necessary to conduct the sub-regional studies,so we used the cluster analysis method and divided the Guangdong province into four different economic regions;third forecasted the number of people at the labor age by the puly-factor componging method, and introduced the new growth pattern with the human capital stock to calculate the economic growth models and contribution rates of labor factor in the four different regions,then forecasted the number of labor demand by the economic growth path in the future;last compared the number of the labor demand and supply, and obtained some conclusions and recommendations.
The results show that:since the reform and opening up, there are large differences existing in Guangdong regional economic growth, and the discrimination of the role of labor factor played in regional economic growth are very significant; the contribution to economic growth of labor quality is higher than the labor quantity; the role of the labor factor played in economic growth will be restricted in future. With the actual situation in Guangdong Province, this article proposed relevant recommendations:giving full play of the guiding role of the government to formulate reasonable regional development plans;establishing a system of coordinated development between industrial structure and the human capital; improving the population management policy; increasing education investment and accumulating the human capital in high-end.
引文
[1]J.Benhabib and M.M.Spiegel, The role of human capital in economic development [J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1994, (34):143-147
[2]Gary S-Becker, Human Capital and Economic Growth, Prauge Economic Papers, [J].September 1995
[3]Norman Gemmell, Evaluating the Impacts of Human Capital Stocks and Accumulation on Economic Growth,Oxford-Bullet In Of Economic And Statistics, [J].February 1996
[4]Peter J.Kenow, Ideas versus rival human capital:Industry evidence on growth models, Journal Of Monetary Economic, [J].1998 No.42
[5]Barry Mcgaw.The Role of Human Capital in Long-term Economic Growth,2002
[6]Coulombe S.Human Capitai.Urbanization and Canadaian Provincial Growth [J]. Regional Studies,2003,37(3):239-250
[7]James J.Heckman. China human capital investment [J].China Economic Review, 2005,(16):50-70.
[8]Jungsoo Park.Dispersion of Human Capital and Economic Growth [J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2006,28:520-539
[9]Mark Huggett, Gustavo Ventura, Amir Yaron.Human Capital and Earnings Distribution Dynamies[J].Journal of Monetary Economies,IssueZ, Vol.53,2006, (3):256-290
[10]Panu Poutvaara. Social security incentives, human capital, investment and mobility of labor. Joumal of Public Economics, March 2007:2-28
[11]Jacob Mincer. Human Capital and the Long Term View of the Labor Market. Oxford Seholarshi Ponline MonograPhs,2007,(3)
[12]BeltonFleisher, HaizhengLi,MinQiangZhao.Human Capital, Economic Growth, And Regional Inequality in China, Journal of Development Eeonomies [J],2009
[13]戴旻乐.经济增长的路径选择.[D].中央财经大学,2005
[14]钟丽萍.浙江省产业结构与劳动力分布研究.[D].华东师范大学,2006
[15]刘鸣.东北三省劳动力供给与需求研究.[D].吉林大学,2007
[16]周兴.广东省经济增长中的人力资本贡献研究.[D].华南师范大学,2007
[17]张艳伟.基于新经济增长理论的区域可持续发展评价模型研究—以兰州经济区为例.[D].西南师范大学,2007
[18]李桂甫.我国主体功能区划的理论研究.[D].西南交通大学,2008
[19]王宇翔.人力资本在江苏经济增长中的贡献研究.[D].扬州大学,2008
[20]陈锐.人力资本及其在经济增长中的贡献——对天津的实证研究.[D].天津理工大学,2009
[21]徐红丽.深圳市产业结构与就业结构关系研究.[D].东北师范大学,2009
[22]刘淑玲.人力资本对区域经济增长作用差异的对比研究——以京津晋蒙四省区为例.[D].首都经济贸易大学,2009
[23]闫琳琳.产业结构调整中的人力资本作用分析——以辽宁为例.[D].辽宁大学,2009
[24]董环宇.从年龄结构变动分析我国未来劳动力供给的变化.[D].吉林大学,2009
[25]杨实君.中国经济增长因素分析：1978-2007.[D].北京工业大学,2009
[26]李坤望.经济增长理论与经济增长的差异.[M].山西：山西经济出版社,1998：4-49
[27]王小鲁、樊纲等.中国经济增长的可持续性——跨世纪的回顾与展望.[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2000
[28]张一力.人力资本与区域经济增长——温州与苏州比较实证研究.[M].浙江：浙江大学出版社,2005
[29]马凯.《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》辅导读本.[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2006
[30]成艾华.人口转变、人力资本与民族地区经济增长.[M].北京：民族出版社,2007
[31]罗润东、刘文.区域发展与人力资本关系研究.[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2009
[32]袁建文.广东省产业结构变动对经济增长的影响.[J].广东经济管理学院学报,2003(8)：10-13
[33]尹骏、彭新育.广东省产业结构中就业人口变化趋势实证分析.[J].广西民族学院学报,2005(6)：92-95
[34]丁仁船、张薇.开放人口分要素预测法细节处理技术.[J].西北人口,2005(6)：44-46
[35]石磊、高帆.地区经济差距：一个基于经济结构的实证研究.[J].管理世界,2006(5)：35-36
[36]周江涛.开放区域的人口分组要素组合预测.[J].西北人口,2006(6)：27-28
[37]黄柳国.广东区域协调发展新格局研究.[J].广东经济,2007(12)：24-28
[38]何慧芳.广东省产业结构与人力资源结构的互动效率研究.[J].广东科技,2007(4)：33-34
[39]高明芳.广东产业结构分析.[J].新西部,2008(16)：52
[40]邓春玉.基于主体功能区的广东省城市化空间均衡发展研究.[J].宏观经济研究,2008(12)：38-45
1 摘自《<中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要>辅助读本》,2006。
2 摘自《<中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要>辅助读本》,2006。
3 摘自：《广东统计年鉴2009》指标解释。
[2]Gary S-Becker, Human Capital and Economic Growth, Prauge Economic Papers, [J].September 1995
[3]Norman Gemmell, Evaluating the Impacts of Human Capital Stocks and Accumulation on Economic Growth,Oxford-Bullet In Of Economic And Statistics, [J].February 1996
[4]Peter J.Kenow, Ideas versus rival human capital:Industry evidence on growth models, Journal Of Monetary Economic, [J].1998 No.42
[5]Barry Mcgaw.The Role of Human Capital in Long-term Economic Growth,2002
[6]Coulombe S.Human Capitai.Urbanization and Canadaian Provincial Growth [J]. Regional Studies,2003,37(3):239-250
[7]James J.Heckman. China human capital investment [J].China Economic Review, 2005,(16):50-70.
[8]Jungsoo Park.Dispersion of Human Capital and Economic Growth [J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2006,28:520-539
[9]Mark Huggett, Gustavo Ventura, Amir Yaron.Human Capital and Earnings Distribution Dynamies[J].Journal of Monetary Economies,IssueZ, Vol.53,2006, (3):256-290
[10]Panu Poutvaara. Social security incentives, human capital, investment and mobility of labor. Joumal of Public Economics, March 2007:2-28
[11]Jacob Mincer. Human Capital and the Long Term View of the Labor Market. Oxford Seholarshi Ponline MonograPhs,2007,(3)
[12]BeltonFleisher, HaizhengLi,MinQiangZhao.Human Capital, Economic Growth, And Regional Inequality in China, Journal of Development Eeonomies [J],2009
[13]戴旻乐.经济增长的路径选择.[D].中央财经大学,2005
[14]钟丽萍.浙江省产业结构与劳动力分布研究.[D].华东师范大学,2006
[15]刘鸣.东北三省劳动力供给与需求研究.[D].吉林大学,2007
[16]周兴.广东省经济增长中的人力资本贡献研究.[D].华南师范大学,2007
[17]张艳伟.基于新经济增长理论的区域可持续发展评价模型研究—以兰州经济区为例.[D].西南师范大学,2007
[18]李桂甫.我国主体功能区划的理论研究.[D].西南交通大学,2008
[19]王宇翔.人力资本在江苏经济增长中的贡献研究.[D].扬州大学,2008
[20]陈锐.人力资本及其在经济增长中的贡献——对天津的实证研究.[D].天津理工大学,2009
[21]徐红丽.深圳市产业结构与就业结构关系研究.[D].东北师范大学,2009
[22]刘淑玲.人力资本对区域经济增长作用差异的对比研究——以京津晋蒙四省区为例.[D].首都经济贸易大学,2009
[23]闫琳琳.产业结构调整中的人力资本作用分析——以辽宁为例.[D].辽宁大学,2009
[24]董环宇.从年龄结构变动分析我国未来劳动力供给的变化.[D].吉林大学,2009
[25]杨实君.中国经济增长因素分析：1978-2007.[D].北京工业大学,2009
[26]李坤望.经济增长理论与经济增长的差异.[M].山西：山西经济出版社,1998：4-49
[27]王小鲁、樊纲等.中国经济增长的可持续性——跨世纪的回顾与展望.[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2000
[28]张一力.人力资本与区域经济增长——温州与苏州比较实证研究.[M].浙江：浙江大学出版社,2005
[29]马凯.《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》辅导读本.[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2006
[30]成艾华.人口转变、人力资本与民族地区经济增长.[M].北京：民族出版社,2007
[31]罗润东、刘文.区域发展与人力资本关系研究.[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2009
[32]袁建文.广东省产业结构变动对经济增长的影响.[J].广东经济管理学院学报,2003(8)：10-13
[33]尹骏、彭新育.广东省产业结构中就业人口变化趋势实证分析.[J].广西民族学院学报,2005(6)：92-95
[34]丁仁船、张薇.开放人口分要素预测法细节处理技术.[J].西北人口,2005(6)：44-46
[35]石磊、高帆.地区经济差距：一个基于经济结构的实证研究.[J].管理世界,2006(5)：35-36
[36]周江涛.开放区域的人口分组要素组合预测.[J].西北人口,2006(6)：27-28
[37]黄柳国.广东区域协调发展新格局研究.[J].广东经济,2007(12)：24-28
[38]何慧芳.广东省产业结构与人力资源结构的互动效率研究.[J].广东科技,2007(4)：33-34
[39]高明芳.广东产业结构分析.[J].新西部,2008(16)：52
[40]邓春玉.基于主体功能区的广东省城市化空间均衡发展研究.[J].宏观经济研究,2008(12)：38-45
1 摘自《<中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要>辅助读本》,2006。
2 摘自《<中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要>辅助读本》,2006。
3 摘自：《广东统计年鉴2009》指标解释。