上市公司价值与公允价值变动的相关性实证研究
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摘要
上市公司价值与公允价值变动的相关性实证研究
经济的发展促进了大量金融工具的创新，传统的历史成本计量属性所提供的信息由于不能公允地反映现实状况，己经越来越不能满足我国财务报表使用者的信息需要。20世纪80年代后期，美国的金融机构纷纷破产所导致的储蓄与信贷危机，推动了公允价值计量在美国的应用。美国财务会计准则委员会（FASB）于20世纪90年代初首先修订会计准则，在对金融工具的计量上逐步采用公允价值计量属性。国际会计准则理事会(IASB)在国际财务报告准则中也陆续采用公允价值这一计量属性。随后公允价值在越来越多的国家和地区得到认可和运用。
FASB和IASB在会计准则制定上，都正在从由传统的历史成本计量属性向公允价值计量属性转变。当然，这种转变给国际财务会计理论界和实务界带来的影响是深远的。同时，不仅在会计理论界与实务界之间，而且在会计准则制定者和相关监管机构之间，关于公允价值计量的应用效果如何以及公允价值是否具有价值相关性等问题，都引起了激烈的争论。特别是由美国次贷危机所引发的金融危机爆发后，实务界对公允价值的指责更是愈演愈烈。同样，我国采用公允价值计量的应用也是一波三折，尤其是在2006年为了进一步加强我国会计准则与国际财务报告准则的协调一致与趋同发展，我国颁布了新会计准则，对公允价值计量加以重新引入，成为新会计准则的最大亮点之一，新会计准则的颁布一方面适应了我国经济发展的客观要求，另一方面也符合了国际会计计量的发展趋势。同时，这也说明了在我国无论是准则制定者还是理论学术界对公允价值都不再持回避态度，如何更好的应用公允价值成为各界所面临的主要课题。
结合上述背景和国内外学者的相关研究成果，本论文在对我国公允价值计量发展历程及动因分析基础上，重点通过建立价格模型与收益模型，并使用面板数据进行上市公司公允价值相关性的计量分析与实证检验。分析考察了我国2006年新会计准则中采用公允价值计量对会计信息质量的影响，验证了公允价值计量的披露信息是否具有价值相关性。选取了2007-2010年度沪深两市283家上市公司4年共16个季度的数据作为样本，采用价格模型和收益模型检验了公允价值的两个替代变量与股票内在价值以及股票收益率之间的相关关系，进行了分行业公允价值相关性的价格模型检验。通过加入控制变量，验证公允价值计量的价值相关性的稳健性。在此基础上，论述了构建公允价值计量统一框架的必要性，给出了公允价值计量统一框架的原则，提出了构架公允价值计量的统一框架。
本论文的各章节具体内容安排如下：
第1章：绪论。本章主要论述选题背景、选题意义、论文的结构框架和主要研究方法以及研究创新之处。
第2章：研究文献综述。本章主要是从国外及国内对公允价值计量的基础研究文献和实证研究文献两个方面进行了综述，并对对国内外公允价值研究文献进行了综合评述。
第3章：公允价值计量在我国的发展历程及动因分析。本章主要介绍了公允价值计量在我国应用情况：主要经历了1991-2000年间的初步认识、2001-2005年间的尝试使用和2006年至今的推广应用三个阶段。然后又具体分析了公允价值计量在我国发展的内在动因和外在动因。
第4章：研究设计与模型设定。本章首先提出了研究假设，其次又对变量选取和数据来源进行了定义及说明，最后设定了面板数据模型。
第5章：公允价值相关性的实证研究。本章主要创建了价格模型与收益模型，使用面板数据，运用分析软件STATA11中的计量分析等方法，实证检验了公允价值的两个替代变量与股票内在价值之间的公允价值计量的价值相关性分析。
第6章：公允价值相关性的稳健性检验。为了进一步检验公允价值相关性，本章在价格模型和收益模型中分别加入了流通股比例、公司规模和上市公司风险三个控制变量验证公允价值计量的价值相关性的稳健性。
第7章：分行业公允价值相关性的价格模型检验。为了进一步说明公允价值计量的应用效果，本章分行业主要采用价格模型对公允价值的相关性进行了检验。
第8章：完善公允价值计量的途径。在实证检验的基础上，本章分析了影响公允价值计量的因素，论述了构建公允价值计量统一框架的必要性，给出了公允价值计量统一框架的原则，提出了构架公允价值计量的统一框架。
通过实证研究，本论文得到如下启示与结论：
（一）在资产负债表中体现的每股可供出售金融资产公允价值变动净额和在利润表中体现的每股公允价值变动损益与股票内在价值之间具有相关性。并且得出了后者的价值相关性显著高于前者的结论。这在一定程度上说明按新会计准则编制的财务报表中，公允价值信息具有一定的价值相关性。
（二）通过对2007-2008年度、2009-2010年度和2007-2010年度三组数据价格模型的计量分析显示，2009-2010年度的会计数据对股价的联合解释能力比2007-2008年度有所提高。而2007-2010年度的会计数据对股价的联合解释能力比2007-2008年度和2009-2010年度都有所提高。即2006年新会计准则实施后，在资产负债表中体现的每股可供出售金融资产公允价值变动净额和在利润表中体现的每股公允价值变动损益对股价的价值相关性随着样本的增大和年度的推移呈现出增强的趋势。
（三）稳健性验证结果表明，上市公司风险、公司规模和流通股比例具有解释股价的能力。加入三个控制变量后在资产负债表中体现的每股可供出售金融资产公允价值变动净额和在利润表中体现的每股公允价值变动损益与股票内在价值之间同样具有价值相关性。从而也说明了资本市场对以公允价值计量的应用效果也给予了正面积极的评价。
结合上述研究成果，在具体分析影响公允价值计量的因素和给出了公允价值计量统一框架原则的基础上，本论文提出了构架公允价值计量统一框架的设想。
Empirical Research on the Correlation between Listed Companies’MarketValue and Fair Value Changes
Combined with the development of the economy and emergence of a large number offinancial instruments, financial accounting information measured by historical cost has beenincreasingly unable to meet the needs of information users. During the late 1980s, the outbreak ofthe United States' credit and savings crisis increasingly promoted the application of fair value forevaluation of financial instruments in the United States. During the early 1990s, the fair valuemeasurement was firstly introduced into accounting standards for financial instruments in theUnited States. Subsequently, International Financial Reporting Standards gradually adopted thefair value measurement. More and more countries and districts adopted the fair valuemeasurement from then on.
Not only the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in United State, but also theInternational Accounting Standards Board (IASB), is shifting from the traditional historical costmeasurement to fair value measurement. Undoubtedly, this shift will have a profound impact onthe international financial accounting practice and theory. At the same time, not only between theaccounting standard setters and the related regulatory agencies, but also between accountingtheory and practice, there are fiercely debates on the effects caused by extensive application of thefair value measurement and the correlation of fair value with market prices, etc. Accuses on fairvalue prevail, especially in the time of this financial crisis. Application of fair value measurementin China is fairely difficult. In order to strengthen the convergence and coordination of Chineseaccounting standards with International Financial Reporting Standard, fair value measurementwas re-introduced into the new system of accounting standards promulgated in 2006, that isAccounting Standards for Enterprises (2006) and Its Application Guide. An arryay of actions shedprominent lights on the new accounting standards. It is consistent with the developing trend ofinternational accounting measurement, as well as useful for the objective requirements of China'seconomic development. Meanwhile, it shows that standard setters and academia can no longerhold an evasive attitude against fair value measurement. Better application of the fair valuemeasurement is the main topics for related sectors.
Combined with the above background and the relevant research results by the domestic andforeign scholars, the article evaluates the application effect of fair value measurement in Chinabased on price model, return model, panel data and regression analysis, so as to investigatewhether the application of fair value measurement improves the quality of accounting informationin China and tests the correlation of values with listed companies’disclosed information. UsingHu-Shen 283 listed companies’quarterly data from 2007 to 2010, combined with two substitutevariables which are net changes in fair value of available-for-sale financial assets, profit and lossfrom fair value changes, we tested the relationship between substitute variables, stock marketvalue, and return rate.
The article’s main contents are as follows:
The first chapter: introduction. It briefly introduces the background, significance of topics,structure framework, research methods, further research opportunities, and the principalinnovation of this article.
The second chapter: literature review. This chapter reviews the literature dealing with the fairvalue comprehensively from two aspects which are theoretical studies and empirical studiespublished in China and other countries. It also analyzes systematically the achievements andshortcomings in the field in order to form the perspective of the article.
The third chapter: development process and motivation of fair value measurement. Thischapter introduces fair value measurement which is used in China: it contains three periods:‘advocate (1991-2000)’,‘avoid (2001-2005)’and‘re-introduce (2006-present)’.Then it gives adetailed analysis of the domestic and international motivation toward the application of fair valuemeasurement.
The fourth chapter: research design. Firstly, it gives the hypotheses of the research; secondly,it gives the definitions and explanations of the selected variables and data sources; finally, a paneldata model is introduced.
The fifth chapter: empirical research on the correlation of fair value with market value. Thischapter makes an empirical test on fair value using price and return models, panel data, regressionanalysis and so on.
The sixth chapter: robustness test on the correlation of fair value. In order to make a furthertest on the correlation of fair value, we test the robustness test on the correlation of fair value by adding listed companies’risk, scale and proportion of outstanding shares into price model andreturn model.
The seventh chapter: price model’s test on the correlation of fair value with market value foreach industry. This chapter adopts price model to test the correlation of fair value for eachindustry in order to show the application effect of fair value measurement.
The eighth chapter: way to improve the test on fair value measurement. This chapteranalyzes the factors which have influence on fair value measurement on the basis of empirical test.It also discusses the necessity to build a unified framework of fair value measurement.Furthermore, we makeup rules on the unified framework of fair value measurement and unifiedframework of fair value measurement.
According to empirical research, the article’s conclusions and focus are three-folds:
(一) There is a significant correlation between net changes in fair value of available-for-salefinancial assets, profit and loss from fair value changes and stock price, that shows valuerelevance. Moreover, the value relevance based on profit and loss from fair value changes ishigher than the value relevance based on net changes in fair value of available-for-sale financialassets. To some extent, fair value information has a value based on financial statements which areprepared on the new accounting standards.
(二)According to price model’s regression analysis based on three sets of data((2007-2008),(2009-2010),(2007-2010)), joint explanatory power of accounting data from 2009 to2010 on stock price is more robust than joint explanatory power of accounting data from 2007 to2008 on stock price. While, joint explanatory power of accounting data from 2007 to 2010 onstock price is more robust than joint explanatory power of accounting data from 2007 to 2008 onstock price and accounting data from 2009 to 2010. It conveys the fact that the correlationbetween net changes in fair value of available-for-sale financial assets, profit and loss from fairvalue changes and stock price shows an enhanced trend with increasing samples and years.
(三) The result of robust test shows that the listed companies’risk, scale and proportion ofoutstanding shares have an ability to explain the stock price. There is equivalent value relevancebetween net changes in fair value of available-for-sale financial assets, profit and loss from fairvalue changes and stock price when three controlled variables are added. It also conveys the factthat the market actively responds to this new measurement method.
Combined with the above research results, the article establishes a unified framework of fairvalue measurement on the basis of the specific analysis of the factors that affect the fair valuemeasurement and given rules on the unified framework of fair value measurement.
经济的发展促进了大量金融工具的创新，传统的历史成本计量属性所提供的信息由于不能公允地反映现实状况，己经越来越不能满足我国财务报表使用者的信息需要。20世纪80年代后期，美国的金融机构纷纷破产所导致的储蓄与信贷危机，推动了公允价值计量在美国的应用。美国财务会计准则委员会（FASB）于20世纪90年代初首先修订会计准则，在对金融工具的计量上逐步采用公允价值计量属性。国际会计准则理事会(IASB)在国际财务报告准则中也陆续采用公允价值这一计量属性。随后公允价值在越来越多的国家和地区得到认可和运用。
FASB和IASB在会计准则制定上，都正在从由传统的历史成本计量属性向公允价值计量属性转变。当然，这种转变给国际财务会计理论界和实务界带来的影响是深远的。同时，不仅在会计理论界与实务界之间，而且在会计准则制定者和相关监管机构之间，关于公允价值计量的应用效果如何以及公允价值是否具有价值相关性等问题，都引起了激烈的争论。特别是由美国次贷危机所引发的金融危机爆发后，实务界对公允价值的指责更是愈演愈烈。同样，我国采用公允价值计量的应用也是一波三折，尤其是在2006年为了进一步加强我国会计准则与国际财务报告准则的协调一致与趋同发展，我国颁布了新会计准则，对公允价值计量加以重新引入，成为新会计准则的最大亮点之一，新会计准则的颁布一方面适应了我国经济发展的客观要求，另一方面也符合了国际会计计量的发展趋势。同时，这也说明了在我国无论是准则制定者还是理论学术界对公允价值都不再持回避态度，如何更好的应用公允价值成为各界所面临的主要课题。
结合上述背景和国内外学者的相关研究成果，本论文在对我国公允价值计量发展历程及动因分析基础上，重点通过建立价格模型与收益模型，并使用面板数据进行上市公司公允价值相关性的计量分析与实证检验。分析考察了我国2006年新会计准则中采用公允价值计量对会计信息质量的影响，验证了公允价值计量的披露信息是否具有价值相关性。选取了2007-2010年度沪深两市283家上市公司4年共16个季度的数据作为样本，采用价格模型和收益模型检验了公允价值的两个替代变量与股票内在价值以及股票收益率之间的相关关系，进行了分行业公允价值相关性的价格模型检验。通过加入控制变量，验证公允价值计量的价值相关性的稳健性。在此基础上，论述了构建公允价值计量统一框架的必要性，给出了公允价值计量统一框架的原则，提出了构架公允价值计量的统一框架。
本论文的各章节具体内容安排如下：
第1章：绪论。本章主要论述选题背景、选题意义、论文的结构框架和主要研究方法以及研究创新之处。
第2章：研究文献综述。本章主要是从国外及国内对公允价值计量的基础研究文献和实证研究文献两个方面进行了综述，并对对国内外公允价值研究文献进行了综合评述。
第3章：公允价值计量在我国的发展历程及动因分析。本章主要介绍了公允价值计量在我国应用情况：主要经历了1991-2000年间的初步认识、2001-2005年间的尝试使用和2006年至今的推广应用三个阶段。然后又具体分析了公允价值计量在我国发展的内在动因和外在动因。
第4章：研究设计与模型设定。本章首先提出了研究假设，其次又对变量选取和数据来源进行了定义及说明，最后设定了面板数据模型。
第5章：公允价值相关性的实证研究。本章主要创建了价格模型与收益模型，使用面板数据，运用分析软件STATA11中的计量分析等方法，实证检验了公允价值的两个替代变量与股票内在价值之间的公允价值计量的价值相关性分析。
第6章：公允价值相关性的稳健性检验。为了进一步检验公允价值相关性，本章在价格模型和收益模型中分别加入了流通股比例、公司规模和上市公司风险三个控制变量验证公允价值计量的价值相关性的稳健性。
第7章：分行业公允价值相关性的价格模型检验。为了进一步说明公允价值计量的应用效果，本章分行业主要采用价格模型对公允价值的相关性进行了检验。
第8章：完善公允价值计量的途径。在实证检验的基础上，本章分析了影响公允价值计量的因素，论述了构建公允价值计量统一框架的必要性，给出了公允价值计量统一框架的原则，提出了构架公允价值计量的统一框架。
通过实证研究，本论文得到如下启示与结论：
（一）在资产负债表中体现的每股可供出售金融资产公允价值变动净额和在利润表中体现的每股公允价值变动损益与股票内在价值之间具有相关性。并且得出了后者的价值相关性显著高于前者的结论。这在一定程度上说明按新会计准则编制的财务报表中，公允价值信息具有一定的价值相关性。
（二）通过对2007-2008年度、2009-2010年度和2007-2010年度三组数据价格模型的计量分析显示，2009-2010年度的会计数据对股价的联合解释能力比2007-2008年度有所提高。而2007-2010年度的会计数据对股价的联合解释能力比2007-2008年度和2009-2010年度都有所提高。即2006年新会计准则实施后，在资产负债表中体现的每股可供出售金融资产公允价值变动净额和在利润表中体现的每股公允价值变动损益对股价的价值相关性随着样本的增大和年度的推移呈现出增强的趋势。
（三）稳健性验证结果表明，上市公司风险、公司规模和流通股比例具有解释股价的能力。加入三个控制变量后在资产负债表中体现的每股可供出售金融资产公允价值变动净额和在利润表中体现的每股公允价值变动损益与股票内在价值之间同样具有价值相关性。从而也说明了资本市场对以公允价值计量的应用效果也给予了正面积极的评价。
结合上述研究成果，在具体分析影响公允价值计量的因素和给出了公允价值计量统一框架原则的基础上，本论文提出了构架公允价值计量统一框架的设想。
Empirical Research on the Correlation between Listed Companies’MarketValue and Fair Value Changes
Combined with the development of the economy and emergence of a large number offinancial instruments, financial accounting information measured by historical cost has beenincreasingly unable to meet the needs of information users. During the late 1980s, the outbreak ofthe United States' credit and savings crisis increasingly promoted the application of fair value forevaluation of financial instruments in the United States. During the early 1990s, the fair valuemeasurement was firstly introduced into accounting standards for financial instruments in theUnited States. Subsequently, International Financial Reporting Standards gradually adopted thefair value measurement. More and more countries and districts adopted the fair valuemeasurement from then on.
Not only the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in United State, but also theInternational Accounting Standards Board (IASB), is shifting from the traditional historical costmeasurement to fair value measurement. Undoubtedly, this shift will have a profound impact onthe international financial accounting practice and theory. At the same time, not only between theaccounting standard setters and the related regulatory agencies, but also between accountingtheory and practice, there are fiercely debates on the effects caused by extensive application of thefair value measurement and the correlation of fair value with market prices, etc. Accuses on fairvalue prevail, especially in the time of this financial crisis. Application of fair value measurementin China is fairely difficult. In order to strengthen the convergence and coordination of Chineseaccounting standards with International Financial Reporting Standard, fair value measurementwas re-introduced into the new system of accounting standards promulgated in 2006, that isAccounting Standards for Enterprises (2006) and Its Application Guide. An arryay of actions shedprominent lights on the new accounting standards. It is consistent with the developing trend ofinternational accounting measurement, as well as useful for the objective requirements of China'seconomic development. Meanwhile, it shows that standard setters and academia can no longerhold an evasive attitude against fair value measurement. Better application of the fair valuemeasurement is the main topics for related sectors.
Combined with the above background and the relevant research results by the domestic andforeign scholars, the article evaluates the application effect of fair value measurement in Chinabased on price model, return model, panel data and regression analysis, so as to investigatewhether the application of fair value measurement improves the quality of accounting informationin China and tests the correlation of values with listed companies’disclosed information. UsingHu-Shen 283 listed companies’quarterly data from 2007 to 2010, combined with two substitutevariables which are net changes in fair value of available-for-sale financial assets, profit and lossfrom fair value changes, we tested the relationship between substitute variables, stock marketvalue, and return rate.
The article’s main contents are as follows:
The first chapter: introduction. It briefly introduces the background, significance of topics,structure framework, research methods, further research opportunities, and the principalinnovation of this article.
The second chapter: literature review. This chapter reviews the literature dealing with the fairvalue comprehensively from two aspects which are theoretical studies and empirical studiespublished in China and other countries. It also analyzes systematically the achievements andshortcomings in the field in order to form the perspective of the article.
The third chapter: development process and motivation of fair value measurement. Thischapter introduces fair value measurement which is used in China: it contains three periods:‘advocate (1991-2000)’,‘avoid (2001-2005)’and‘re-introduce (2006-present)’.Then it gives adetailed analysis of the domestic and international motivation toward the application of fair valuemeasurement.
The fourth chapter: research design. Firstly, it gives the hypotheses of the research; secondly,it gives the definitions and explanations of the selected variables and data sources; finally, a paneldata model is introduced.
The fifth chapter: empirical research on the correlation of fair value with market value. Thischapter makes an empirical test on fair value using price and return models, panel data, regressionanalysis and so on.
The sixth chapter: robustness test on the correlation of fair value. In order to make a furthertest on the correlation of fair value, we test the robustness test on the correlation of fair value by adding listed companies’risk, scale and proportion of outstanding shares into price model andreturn model.
The seventh chapter: price model’s test on the correlation of fair value with market value foreach industry. This chapter adopts price model to test the correlation of fair value for eachindustry in order to show the application effect of fair value measurement.
The eighth chapter: way to improve the test on fair value measurement. This chapteranalyzes the factors which have influence on fair value measurement on the basis of empirical test.It also discusses the necessity to build a unified framework of fair value measurement.Furthermore, we makeup rules on the unified framework of fair value measurement and unifiedframework of fair value measurement.
According to empirical research, the article’s conclusions and focus are three-folds:
(一) There is a significant correlation between net changes in fair value of available-for-salefinancial assets, profit and loss from fair value changes and stock price, that shows valuerelevance. Moreover, the value relevance based on profit and loss from fair value changes ishigher than the value relevance based on net changes in fair value of available-for-sale financialassets. To some extent, fair value information has a value based on financial statements which areprepared on the new accounting standards.
(二)According to price model’s regression analysis based on three sets of data((2007-2008),(2009-2010),(2007-2010)), joint explanatory power of accounting data from 2009 to2010 on stock price is more robust than joint explanatory power of accounting data from 2007 to2008 on stock price. While, joint explanatory power of accounting data from 2007 to 2010 onstock price is more robust than joint explanatory power of accounting data from 2007 to 2008 onstock price and accounting data from 2009 to 2010. It conveys the fact that the correlationbetween net changes in fair value of available-for-sale financial assets, profit and loss from fairvalue changes and stock price shows an enhanced trend with increasing samples and years.
(三) The result of robust test shows that the listed companies’risk, scale and proportion ofoutstanding shares have an ability to explain the stock price. There is equivalent value relevancebetween net changes in fair value of available-for-sale financial assets, profit and loss from fairvalue changes and stock price when three controlled variables are added. It also conveys the factthat the market actively responds to this new measurement method.
Combined with the above research results, the article establishes a unified framework of fairvalue measurement on the basis of the specific analysis of the factors that affect the fair valuemeasurement and given rules on the unified framework of fair value measurement.
引文
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