外商直接投资影响下中国城市化发展研究
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摘要
20世纪90年代以来,中国进入了城市化加速发展的新时期,这一时期是中国社会、经济变化最激烈的时期,也是经济全球化对各国社会、经济与文化等影响愈加深入的时期。大多数全球经济的地理变化都是由跨国公司通过直接投资影响和塑造的,尤其是直接投资的区位决策对东道国的城市化产生了多重的影响,城市化越来越显示出开放性的特点。外商直接投资已经深深地嵌入到了中国的城市化发展之中,成为中国城市化的外源性发展动力。这些问题与现象已经引起了国内外学者的广泛关注,但是外商直接投资究竟通过何种途径对中国城市化产生影响?面对纷繁复杂的内外环境,中国城市化对外商直接投资的区位决策又会产生何种反馈与响应?在此过程中,是否还存在一些惰性因素在阻碍着外商直接投资对城市化的作用?外商直接投资影响下中国城市化的区域差异性是扩大还是趋于缩小?外商直接投资影响下的中国城市化是否还面临着资源与环境的约束?关于这些问题的研究,国内外学者较少涉及。本文以此为主题,深入地探讨外商直接投资影响下中国城市化的发展问题,并采用计量经济模型对此进行了实证分析与检验。
全文共包括八章,具体内容如下：
第一章作为导论,在分析当前国内、国际形势的基础上,探讨了本文的研究动机与选题意义,并对本研究的两个中心概念——外商直接投资与城市化进行了界定。第二章则是本文的理论基础,从发展经济学理论以及国际直接投资理论等角度对FDI影响下城市化发展问题进行了理论论证,并分析了当前国内外关于此问题的研究进展,这是为后文的深入分析与论证打下一个牢固的理论基础以及前期铺垫。第三章对于FDI对城市化影响机理进行了深入的论证,认为FDI能够通过技术扩散、产业结构优化、就业增加、文化影响等途径推动中国城市化发展,但同时也由于FDI自身的逐利性、破坏性以及脆弱性对城市化将会产生消极的影响。在FDI对城市化影响越来越深入的过程中,城市化也通过集聚经济、规模经济效应等影响着FDI的流动。同时,本章还分析了城市化系统中的惰性因素在此过程中的反应。第四章则在前文基础上,采用数学工具对上文的分析与结论进行论证。为了使本文的实证分析中有关城市化水平的确定具有一个统一的标准与规范,本文对当前城市化水平的界定问题进行了研究,分析了单一指标法与复合指标法的异同,并采用主成分法、熵值法以及层次分析法对中国城市化水平进行了评价,最后对评价结果进行了一致性检验。从而在此基础上,本文采用单方程模型对FDI影响下中国城市化的发展进行了实证研究。随后,本文构建了联立方程(包括城市化方程、FDI方程以及经济增长方程)来分析这些经济变量之间相互依存、互为因果的关系。在第五章中,笔者利用相对差距系数、标准差以及可分解的泰尔指数对中国当前城市化与FDI的区域发展差异性进行了分析,并采用面板数据对FDI影响下中国城市化发展区域差异性的收敛与发散进行了检验。第六章先从FDI——城市化——资源与环境约束的理论阐释入手,分析了面对资源与环境等约束条件下FDI与城市化之间内在关系,然后采用面板数据模型检验了EKC假说,并求解出了在城市化和资源与环境倒U型关系中,处于拐点的城市化水平。在前文分析的基础上,第七章重点分析了FDI影响下中国城市化发展的方向与趋势,并提出了若干对策。最后的第八章为结语,重点分析和概括了本文的基本结论以及本文研究的局限性和未来进一步研究的方向与难点。
通过深入详尽的研究,本文得出如下结论：
(1)外商直接投资对城市化发展具有积极与消极的双重作用,并且城市化对FDI存在反馈机制。从积极方面看,外商直接投资对东道国城市的经济增长、经济结构演进、制度变迁以及人口迁移产生作用,从而影响到东道国城市化的推进,而城市的集聚经济与规模经济效益将会极大地影响到外商直接投资的布局决策。从消极方面看,FDI的逐利性、破坏性与脆弱性给城市化的持续、健康发展带来负面作用,影响城市化质量的提高以及城市化的稳定性。并且,在外商直接投资影响城市化发展的过程中,城市化对FDI也具有反馈机制,两者之间不是简单的单向作用关系。本文的计量模型也支持了这一论点,两者之间确实存在相互影响、相互作用、共同发展的关系,但是这种关系是不对称的。FDI已经成为中国城市化发展的重要动力之一,包括产业结构演进、工业化等在内的内源性动力也是中国城市化的基本推动力。但是实证检验中,城市化对FDI却起着反向作用,吸引FDI布局的区位因素中各地区的市场规模和潜力以及经济的外向程度是最为重要的因素。
(2)在FDI与城市化相互作用的过程中,城市化对于来自FDI的外部刺激产生了惰性的回应,这阻碍了两者之间的相互作用。也就是说,总是存在一种传统的、稳定的力量在保持着城市系统的稳定与平衡,使得FDI等外在动力对城市化的推动作用受到了一定程度的抵制,城市化对于外部刺激(FDI)产生了一种惰性的回应。这种惰性反应源自于三个方面：传统观念与舶来文化的对撞、政策与制度的规制以及公平与效率的冲突。
(3)当前中国客观存在着城市化发展与FDI区域分布的差异性,在FDI的影响下,我国城市化存在趋异的趋势。从城市化来看,我国的综合城市化水平存在显著的地带间差异,并且这种区域差异性呈现扩大的趋势；人口城市化在东、中、西部三大地带间的差异性要低于各大地带内部的差异性；地域景观城市化的区域差异性变化平缓；经济城市化的组内差距也超过了组间的差异性,说明各大地带内部经济发展的差异性更显著；生活方式城市化在东部地区的差异性最小,而中、西部差异性较大；社会文化城市化的区域差异性也非常显著。从FDI来看,在总量上,各省(市)所吸引的FDI在绝对数量上的差距在缩小,但是相对规模(户均投资规模)的区域差距性却在拉大；在质量上,FDI及三资企业对中国工业化拉动作用的区域差异性在逐步缩小,但是三大地带之间的差距仍是高于地带内部的差距,而FDI就业贡献的区域差异性要显著高于工业贡献的区域差异性,三大地带之间的FDI就业贡献的差异性也异常显著,而组内差距相对较小；在FDI的效益上,三资企业经济效益的区域差异性经历了扩大——缩小——扩大——缩小的波浪形发展过程。引入趋同概念后,面板数据模型结果显示,城市化水平的条件β趋同只存在于西部地区,全国水平、东部地区和中部地区均不存在城市化水平的条件β趋同,但却存在不同程度的趋异；而FDI对城市化区域差异性的作用也存在区别,FDI对于全国的城市化水平增长率以及东部和西部的城市化水平的增长率起着正向作用,而对中部地区城市化增长率的作用方向却相反。
(4)FDI影响下的中国城市化发展面临较高程度的资源与环境约束。在FDI与城市化的共同发展过程中,各个城市的经济结构和生态环境都发生着强烈的变化,资源在被加速消耗。生态环境破坏与资源短缺问题相互交织在一起,在一定程度上抵消了城市化和FDI所带来的巨大的经济效益和社会效益,最终导致城市化过程中形成某些“病态”形式,约束了城市化、FDI以及经济发展、社会进步的边界。对此,采用层次分析法对资源与环境状况进行了综合考察,构造并计算出中国29个省(市)的资源与环境综合指数,并以其为因变量,构建模型进行了计量分析,结果表明,FDI影响下的中国城市化发展面临较高程度的资源与环境约束,城市化与资源环境综合指数之间呈倒U型关系,符合EKC假说,并且拐点城市化水平为49.24%,表示当中国城市化水平超过此值时,中国城市化发展中所面临的资源与环境问题将逐渐得到缓解。
Since 1990s, China entered a new stage to speed up development of urbanization. During this period, China's social and economies is taking drastic changes. At the same time, economic globalization has a widespread and profound influence on the society, economies and culture of all the countries. Most of the global economy geographic changes are influenced and shaped by the direct investment of multinational corporations; especially the location decision of direct investment to the host country had a multiple impact on the urbanization. The urbanization has more and more shown the characteristic of opening. Foreign direct investment has been deeply embedded in China's urbanization and become the external force of China's urbanization. These problems and phenomenon has aroused extensive concern in the domestic and international academics. However, foreign direct investment through which the way affect China's urbanization? Facing the complicated the internal and external situation, what influence has been taken on the location decision of foreign direct investment by China's urbanization? Do there still exist some other inert factors which hinder the interactive function between the foreign direct investment and urbanization? Will the regional difference of urbanization in China be narrowing or extended under the influence of foreign direct investment? Is the urbanization in China also facing the resources and environment constraints? About these problems, both domestic and foreign scholars are less involved. For these themes, this article makes a profound analysis on interactive mechanism between the foreign direct investment and urbanization, the development of urbanization in China under the influence of foreign direct investment. At the same time, this article used the measurement economic model to test these themes.
From the research perspective, the paper has been divided into eight chapters as followings:
As the beginning introduction, the first chapter analyzed the current domestic and international situations and discussed the research motives and the significance of choosing this topic and then defined the two central concepts such as foreign direct investment and urbanization. The second chapter is the theoretical basis which gives a demonstration of urbanization affected by foreign direct investment from the point of development economics and international direct investment theory so as to lay a solid foundation for the further analysis and arguments. The third chapter had a deeply analysis on effects of foreign direct investment to China's urbanization, the feedback mechanism created by urbanization and the inertia factors during the course. This paper studied the evaluation of the urbanization level using the principal component analysis, information entropy method and analytic hierarchy process. According to the Kendall's Wa coefficient and ICC test, the different methods and results have much consistency with each other so as that the empirical analysis of this paper had unified standards and norms. We thought that foreign direct investments promote the development of China's urbanization through the technological diffusion, the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, job creation and cultural influence. Urbanization also affects the flow of foreign direct investment by economies of agglomeration, scale economy etc. Furthermore, there existed some inertial systems and inertia to delay sensitive reaction between them. Indicated above basis, the author used the mathematical tools to expound and prove the above argument in the fourth chapter. In order to further reveal the complex internal mechanism between foreign direct investment and urbanization, this paper built up simultaneous equations which include the equation of urbanization, the equation of foreign direct investment and the equation of economic growth to analyze these economic variables are interactive as both cause and effect relationship. Then in the fifth chapter, we analyzed the regional development difference of urbanization and foreign direct investment making use of the relative disparity coefficient, standard deviation and the decomposable Theil index. Moreover, this chapter tested the convergence and divergence of the regional development difference of urbanization under the influence of foreign direct investment using the panel equation. In the sixth chapter, we interpreted the relative theory about the foreign direct investment, urbanization and the environment and resource restriction to analyze the relations between foreign direct investment and urbanization under such circumstances. And then the paper made use of the panel model to test the EKC hypothesis and work out the urbanization level in the turning point of the down-U-shaped relations of urbanization, environment and resource. On the basis of above analysis, the seventh chapter focused on the analysis of the direction and tendency of urbanization's future affected by the foreign direct investment and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions. As the epilogue, the last chapter VIII illustrated the basic conclusions, innovations and limitations of this paper and pointed the future direction of further research and difficult.
By study these themes in a deep-going way, the following conclusions were drawn:
(1) The impact of foreign direct investment on urbanization is unbalanced. From the positive aspect, foreign direct investment exerted an influence on the economic growth, economic structure evolvement, institutional change and population migration in host countries and finally pushed the development of urbanization. At the same time, urbanization also affected the location decision of foreign direct investment through the agglomeration effects and diffusion effects. During the interaction of foreign direct investment and urbanization, it will probably engender adverse and negative effects. The result showed that the interactive relations actually existed in the relation of them two calculated by simultaneous equations, but the relation is unbalanced. Foreign direct investment has already become one of the most important motives during the development of China's urbanization, moreover economic structure evolvement, industrialization and other internal factors are the fundamental motives of China's urbanization. According to the empirical test, urbanization has negative effects on the foreign direct investment. Among the factors which affect the location decision of foreign direct investment, market scale and potentiality as well as externally-oriented nature of regional economy are the most important factors in the FDI's location decision.
(2) During the interactive of foreign direct investment and urbanization, there existed some inertial systems and inertia to delay sensitive reaction between them. There always existed a kind of traditional and steady-going power to maintain the balance and stabilization of urban system. This hindered the promotion effect on the urbanization coming from foreign direct investment. That is to say, urbanization generated inertial response to external stimuli (such as foreign direct investment). The inertial response comes from three aspects, including the collision between the traditional concept and foreign culture, the restriction of policy and institution, the conflict of fairness and efficiency.
(3) Currently it is an existence objectively in China that the regional distributions of urbanization and foreign direct investment have difference. Looking from the urbanization, comprehensive level of urbanization has significant difference among the regions and will be enlarged. The infra-regional difference of population urbanization is lower than the intra-regional difference among the east, the middle and the west. The regional difference of landscape urbanization gently changes. The interior-group difference of economic urbanization has already overtaken the inter-group difference and this show that the infra-regional difference is more significantly. The infra-regional differences of life-style urbanization in the east is the lowest one, however, the difference in the middle and east is larger. The social-culture urbanization also showed significant difference. From the view of foreign direct investment, when the gap of the absolute number of which the provinces attract foreign direct investment is narrowing, the difference of relative scale (such as investment scale per enterprise) is enlarging. In quality, the regional difference of the FDI's simulative impact on China's industrialization is gradually reducing. But the difference among three economic regions is still higher than the inter-regional difference. The regional difference of the contribution of employments by foreign direct investment is above that of the contribution of industry. FDI's employment contribution among three economic regions is different and interior-group gap is relatively smaller. Analyzing on the benefit of foreign direct investment, its regional distance has experienced expansion reducing——expansion——reducing. This paper developed the concept of convergence carry out the data processing and analyses. The result showed thatβ-conditional convergence of urbanization is only found in the west but not across the country, in the east and middle. There also are differences in the role of foreign direct investment on the urbanization. Foreign direct investment has a positive role on the growth rate of urbanization in the whole country, the east and the west, but a negative effect in the middle.
(4) Affected by foreign direct investment, urbanization is confronted with the greater constraining power coming from resource and environment. During the course of development together between foreign direct investment and urbanization, the economic structure and ecological environment in every city are taking profound changes as the resource is exhausted too fast. Because the damage to ecological environment interlaced with the poverty of resources, the economic returns and social benefits brought by urbanization and foreign direct investment maybe be offset to a certain degree. Eventually, more and more ill-conditioned problems will come into being during the development of urbanization so as to restrain the boundary of urbanization, foreign direct investment, economic growth and social progress. By using analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the situation of environment and resource, this paper constructed and figured out the environment-resource composite index of 29 provinces in China as the dependent variable. According to the econometric results, China's urbanization influenced by the foreign direct investment is restricted by environment and resource to a high degree. A down-U-shaped relationship was found between urbanization and the environment-resource composite index and this satisfied the EKC hypothesis. At the turning point, the level of urbanization is up to 49.24% to express that China's resource and environment problems in the course of urbanization will be eased gradually if this level is exceeded.
全文共包括八章,具体内容如下：
第一章作为导论,在分析当前国内、国际形势的基础上,探讨了本文的研究动机与选题意义,并对本研究的两个中心概念——外商直接投资与城市化进行了界定。第二章则是本文的理论基础,从发展经济学理论以及国际直接投资理论等角度对FDI影响下城市化发展问题进行了理论论证,并分析了当前国内外关于此问题的研究进展,这是为后文的深入分析与论证打下一个牢固的理论基础以及前期铺垫。第三章对于FDI对城市化影响机理进行了深入的论证,认为FDI能够通过技术扩散、产业结构优化、就业增加、文化影响等途径推动中国城市化发展,但同时也由于FDI自身的逐利性、破坏性以及脆弱性对城市化将会产生消极的影响。在FDI对城市化影响越来越深入的过程中,城市化也通过集聚经济、规模经济效应等影响着FDI的流动。同时,本章还分析了城市化系统中的惰性因素在此过程中的反应。第四章则在前文基础上,采用数学工具对上文的分析与结论进行论证。为了使本文的实证分析中有关城市化水平的确定具有一个统一的标准与规范,本文对当前城市化水平的界定问题进行了研究,分析了单一指标法与复合指标法的异同,并采用主成分法、熵值法以及层次分析法对中国城市化水平进行了评价,最后对评价结果进行了一致性检验。从而在此基础上,本文采用单方程模型对FDI影响下中国城市化的发展进行了实证研究。随后,本文构建了联立方程(包括城市化方程、FDI方程以及经济增长方程)来分析这些经济变量之间相互依存、互为因果的关系。在第五章中,笔者利用相对差距系数、标准差以及可分解的泰尔指数对中国当前城市化与FDI的区域发展差异性进行了分析,并采用面板数据对FDI影响下中国城市化发展区域差异性的收敛与发散进行了检验。第六章先从FDI——城市化——资源与环境约束的理论阐释入手,分析了面对资源与环境等约束条件下FDI与城市化之间内在关系,然后采用面板数据模型检验了EKC假说,并求解出了在城市化和资源与环境倒U型关系中,处于拐点的城市化水平。在前文分析的基础上,第七章重点分析了FDI影响下中国城市化发展的方向与趋势,并提出了若干对策。最后的第八章为结语,重点分析和概括了本文的基本结论以及本文研究的局限性和未来进一步研究的方向与难点。
通过深入详尽的研究,本文得出如下结论：
(1)外商直接投资对城市化发展具有积极与消极的双重作用,并且城市化对FDI存在反馈机制。从积极方面看,外商直接投资对东道国城市的经济增长、经济结构演进、制度变迁以及人口迁移产生作用,从而影响到东道国城市化的推进,而城市的集聚经济与规模经济效益将会极大地影响到外商直接投资的布局决策。从消极方面看,FDI的逐利性、破坏性与脆弱性给城市化的持续、健康发展带来负面作用,影响城市化质量的提高以及城市化的稳定性。并且,在外商直接投资影响城市化发展的过程中,城市化对FDI也具有反馈机制,两者之间不是简单的单向作用关系。本文的计量模型也支持了这一论点,两者之间确实存在相互影响、相互作用、共同发展的关系,但是这种关系是不对称的。FDI已经成为中国城市化发展的重要动力之一,包括产业结构演进、工业化等在内的内源性动力也是中国城市化的基本推动力。但是实证检验中,城市化对FDI却起着反向作用,吸引FDI布局的区位因素中各地区的市场规模和潜力以及经济的外向程度是最为重要的因素。
(2)在FDI与城市化相互作用的过程中,城市化对于来自FDI的外部刺激产生了惰性的回应,这阻碍了两者之间的相互作用。也就是说,总是存在一种传统的、稳定的力量在保持着城市系统的稳定与平衡,使得FDI等外在动力对城市化的推动作用受到了一定程度的抵制,城市化对于外部刺激(FDI)产生了一种惰性的回应。这种惰性反应源自于三个方面：传统观念与舶来文化的对撞、政策与制度的规制以及公平与效率的冲突。
(3)当前中国客观存在着城市化发展与FDI区域分布的差异性,在FDI的影响下,我国城市化存在趋异的趋势。从城市化来看,我国的综合城市化水平存在显著的地带间差异,并且这种区域差异性呈现扩大的趋势；人口城市化在东、中、西部三大地带间的差异性要低于各大地带内部的差异性；地域景观城市化的区域差异性变化平缓；经济城市化的组内差距也超过了组间的差异性,说明各大地带内部经济发展的差异性更显著；生活方式城市化在东部地区的差异性最小,而中、西部差异性较大；社会文化城市化的区域差异性也非常显著。从FDI来看,在总量上,各省(市)所吸引的FDI在绝对数量上的差距在缩小,但是相对规模(户均投资规模)的区域差距性却在拉大；在质量上,FDI及三资企业对中国工业化拉动作用的区域差异性在逐步缩小,但是三大地带之间的差距仍是高于地带内部的差距,而FDI就业贡献的区域差异性要显著高于工业贡献的区域差异性,三大地带之间的FDI就业贡献的差异性也异常显著,而组内差距相对较小；在FDI的效益上,三资企业经济效益的区域差异性经历了扩大——缩小——扩大——缩小的波浪形发展过程。引入趋同概念后,面板数据模型结果显示,城市化水平的条件β趋同只存在于西部地区,全国水平、东部地区和中部地区均不存在城市化水平的条件β趋同,但却存在不同程度的趋异；而FDI对城市化区域差异性的作用也存在区别,FDI对于全国的城市化水平增长率以及东部和西部的城市化水平的增长率起着正向作用,而对中部地区城市化增长率的作用方向却相反。
(4)FDI影响下的中国城市化发展面临较高程度的资源与环境约束。在FDI与城市化的共同发展过程中,各个城市的经济结构和生态环境都发生着强烈的变化,资源在被加速消耗。生态环境破坏与资源短缺问题相互交织在一起,在一定程度上抵消了城市化和FDI所带来的巨大的经济效益和社会效益,最终导致城市化过程中形成某些“病态”形式,约束了城市化、FDI以及经济发展、社会进步的边界。对此,采用层次分析法对资源与环境状况进行了综合考察,构造并计算出中国29个省(市)的资源与环境综合指数,并以其为因变量,构建模型进行了计量分析,结果表明,FDI影响下的中国城市化发展面临较高程度的资源与环境约束,城市化与资源环境综合指数之间呈倒U型关系,符合EKC假说,并且拐点城市化水平为49.24%,表示当中国城市化水平超过此值时,中国城市化发展中所面临的资源与环境问题将逐渐得到缓解。
Since 1990s, China entered a new stage to speed up development of urbanization. During this period, China's social and economies is taking drastic changes. At the same time, economic globalization has a widespread and profound influence on the society, economies and culture of all the countries. Most of the global economy geographic changes are influenced and shaped by the direct investment of multinational corporations; especially the location decision of direct investment to the host country had a multiple impact on the urbanization. The urbanization has more and more shown the characteristic of opening. Foreign direct investment has been deeply embedded in China's urbanization and become the external force of China's urbanization. These problems and phenomenon has aroused extensive concern in the domestic and international academics. However, foreign direct investment through which the way affect China's urbanization? Facing the complicated the internal and external situation, what influence has been taken on the location decision of foreign direct investment by China's urbanization? Do there still exist some other inert factors which hinder the interactive function between the foreign direct investment and urbanization? Will the regional difference of urbanization in China be narrowing or extended under the influence of foreign direct investment? Is the urbanization in China also facing the resources and environment constraints? About these problems, both domestic and foreign scholars are less involved. For these themes, this article makes a profound analysis on interactive mechanism between the foreign direct investment and urbanization, the development of urbanization in China under the influence of foreign direct investment. At the same time, this article used the measurement economic model to test these themes.
From the research perspective, the paper has been divided into eight chapters as followings:
As the beginning introduction, the first chapter analyzed the current domestic and international situations and discussed the research motives and the significance of choosing this topic and then defined the two central concepts such as foreign direct investment and urbanization. The second chapter is the theoretical basis which gives a demonstration of urbanization affected by foreign direct investment from the point of development economics and international direct investment theory so as to lay a solid foundation for the further analysis and arguments. The third chapter had a deeply analysis on effects of foreign direct investment to China's urbanization, the feedback mechanism created by urbanization and the inertia factors during the course. This paper studied the evaluation of the urbanization level using the principal component analysis, information entropy method and analytic hierarchy process. According to the Kendall's Wa coefficient and ICC test, the different methods and results have much consistency with each other so as that the empirical analysis of this paper had unified standards and norms. We thought that foreign direct investments promote the development of China's urbanization through the technological diffusion, the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, job creation and cultural influence. Urbanization also affects the flow of foreign direct investment by economies of agglomeration, scale economy etc. Furthermore, there existed some inertial systems and inertia to delay sensitive reaction between them. Indicated above basis, the author used the mathematical tools to expound and prove the above argument in the fourth chapter. In order to further reveal the complex internal mechanism between foreign direct investment and urbanization, this paper built up simultaneous equations which include the equation of urbanization, the equation of foreign direct investment and the equation of economic growth to analyze these economic variables are interactive as both cause and effect relationship. Then in the fifth chapter, we analyzed the regional development difference of urbanization and foreign direct investment making use of the relative disparity coefficient, standard deviation and the decomposable Theil index. Moreover, this chapter tested the convergence and divergence of the regional development difference of urbanization under the influence of foreign direct investment using the panel equation. In the sixth chapter, we interpreted the relative theory about the foreign direct investment, urbanization and the environment and resource restriction to analyze the relations between foreign direct investment and urbanization under such circumstances. And then the paper made use of the panel model to test the EKC hypothesis and work out the urbanization level in the turning point of the down-U-shaped relations of urbanization, environment and resource. On the basis of above analysis, the seventh chapter focused on the analysis of the direction and tendency of urbanization's future affected by the foreign direct investment and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions. As the epilogue, the last chapter VIII illustrated the basic conclusions, innovations and limitations of this paper and pointed the future direction of further research and difficult.
By study these themes in a deep-going way, the following conclusions were drawn:
(1) The impact of foreign direct investment on urbanization is unbalanced. From the positive aspect, foreign direct investment exerted an influence on the economic growth, economic structure evolvement, institutional change and population migration in host countries and finally pushed the development of urbanization. At the same time, urbanization also affected the location decision of foreign direct investment through the agglomeration effects and diffusion effects. During the interaction of foreign direct investment and urbanization, it will probably engender adverse and negative effects. The result showed that the interactive relations actually existed in the relation of them two calculated by simultaneous equations, but the relation is unbalanced. Foreign direct investment has already become one of the most important motives during the development of China's urbanization, moreover economic structure evolvement, industrialization and other internal factors are the fundamental motives of China's urbanization. According to the empirical test, urbanization has negative effects on the foreign direct investment. Among the factors which affect the location decision of foreign direct investment, market scale and potentiality as well as externally-oriented nature of regional economy are the most important factors in the FDI's location decision.
(2) During the interactive of foreign direct investment and urbanization, there existed some inertial systems and inertia to delay sensitive reaction between them. There always existed a kind of traditional and steady-going power to maintain the balance and stabilization of urban system. This hindered the promotion effect on the urbanization coming from foreign direct investment. That is to say, urbanization generated inertial response to external stimuli (such as foreign direct investment). The inertial response comes from three aspects, including the collision between the traditional concept and foreign culture, the restriction of policy and institution, the conflict of fairness and efficiency.
(3) Currently it is an existence objectively in China that the regional distributions of urbanization and foreign direct investment have difference. Looking from the urbanization, comprehensive level of urbanization has significant difference among the regions and will be enlarged. The infra-regional difference of population urbanization is lower than the intra-regional difference among the east, the middle and the west. The regional difference of landscape urbanization gently changes. The interior-group difference of economic urbanization has already overtaken the inter-group difference and this show that the infra-regional difference is more significantly. The infra-regional differences of life-style urbanization in the east is the lowest one, however, the difference in the middle and east is larger. The social-culture urbanization also showed significant difference. From the view of foreign direct investment, when the gap of the absolute number of which the provinces attract foreign direct investment is narrowing, the difference of relative scale (such as investment scale per enterprise) is enlarging. In quality, the regional difference of the FDI's simulative impact on China's industrialization is gradually reducing. But the difference among three economic regions is still higher than the inter-regional difference. The regional difference of the contribution of employments by foreign direct investment is above that of the contribution of industry. FDI's employment contribution among three economic regions is different and interior-group gap is relatively smaller. Analyzing on the benefit of foreign direct investment, its regional distance has experienced expansion reducing——expansion——reducing. This paper developed the concept of convergence carry out the data processing and analyses. The result showed thatβ-conditional convergence of urbanization is only found in the west but not across the country, in the east and middle. There also are differences in the role of foreign direct investment on the urbanization. Foreign direct investment has a positive role on the growth rate of urbanization in the whole country, the east and the west, but a negative effect in the middle.
(4) Affected by foreign direct investment, urbanization is confronted with the greater constraining power coming from resource and environment. During the course of development together between foreign direct investment and urbanization, the economic structure and ecological environment in every city are taking profound changes as the resource is exhausted too fast. Because the damage to ecological environment interlaced with the poverty of resources, the economic returns and social benefits brought by urbanization and foreign direct investment maybe be offset to a certain degree. Eventually, more and more ill-conditioned problems will come into being during the development of urbanization so as to restrain the boundary of urbanization, foreign direct investment, economic growth and social progress. By using analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the situation of environment and resource, this paper constructed and figured out the environment-resource composite index of 29 provinces in China as the dependent variable. According to the econometric results, China's urbanization influenced by the foreign direct investment is restricted by environment and resource to a high degree. A down-U-shaped relationship was found between urbanization and the environment-resource composite index and this satisfied the EKC hypothesis. At the turning point, the level of urbanization is up to 49.24% to express that China's resource and environment problems in the course of urbanization will be eased gradually if this level is exceeded.
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