基于比较优势的中美贸易顺差原因研究
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摘要
近年来,伴随着中国对外贸易的不断扩大和发展,表现为顺差不断增大的贸易不平衡给中国经济平稳持续发展带来多方面的困扰。追溯中国对外贸易不平衡的地区来源,中国对外贸易顺差的主要来源是中美贸易,中美贸易顺差已占中国对外贸易总顺差的2/3以上。与中国相反,美国近年来对外贸易的主要困扰是逆差不断扩大,而其逆差的主要来源恰恰是美中贸易逆差,正因为如此,近年来美国以不断扩大的美中贸易逆差为由,多方面给中国施加压力,不仅多次发起以“反倾销”“反补贴”为由的对华调查案,而且坚持认为中国在对外贸易中奉行重商主义、是“汇率操纵国”,并据此多次要求中国调整人民币汇率。事实上,面对越来越大的中美贸易失衡数字,中国为此也付出了很大的努力,如不断地降低人民币汇率,促进人民币升值,积极进口美国的大豆、棉花及民用飞机等,但这些举措都不能从根本上解决中美贸易失衡,中美贸易顺差仍在扩大。那么,中美贸易失衡的原因究竟是什么?中方是否真的在对美贸易中未遵循本国的要素禀赋优势而实行重商主义的贸易政策?中国的汇率、出口补贴等政策是否真的促进了中国对美国的出口增长?对这些问题的困惑是本文研究的出发点。
本文第一章是对国际贸易相关理论和国内外学者对中美贸易顺差形成原因的研究进行梳理。国际贸易理论的发展也可以称为比较优势理论的发展,“两国贸易是基于比较优势进行的”这一古老的贸易理论基石经过不断的质疑和完善,在理论界形成较为一致的观点：要素禀赋不同的国家间的比较优势是要素禀赋的差异；要素禀赋相同的国家间的比较优势是规模经济、差异产品和技术等因素。中美两国是典型的要素禀赋差异较大的国家,按比较优势进行的自由贸易应是中国出口劳动密集品,自美国进口资本密集品。而目前对于中美贸易的研究中都未能量化和确定中国是否因重商主义而大力发展并出口本国不具备要素禀赋优势的产品,在对美贸易中是否遵循本国的要素禀赋优势。
中美贸易在上个世纪90年代以前一直是以中方逆差为主,但自1993年由逆差转为顺差后,顺差增加极为迅速。本文第二章对1992年至今中美贸易品的详细结构进行总结和梳理。通过对1992年以来中美贸易的贸易品结构进行分析,发现除纺织、家具等中国传统的劳动密集型比较优势产品对美出口不断增加外,原本中国不具备比较优势的、传统观点认为是资本和技术密集型的计算机、电子产品、机械产品及运输机械等产品,近年来也是中国大量向美国出口,且这几类产品的顺差几乎占了中美贸易顺差的-半。单从贸易品的角度来看似乎是中国在大力发展并对美出口本国不具备比较优势的资本技术密集品(重商主义)。
本文第三章运用投入产出法,将2007年中美贸易品按其产品编码与生产部门码进行对应,将贸易品归入其生产部门,对其生产进行投入产出计算,计算出中国对美贸易品生产所需的资本和劳动要素。模型运算的结果显示,尽管中国对美出口的机械电子产品所占份额较大,但中国在对美贸易中仍是向美国出口劳动密集品,自美国进口资本密集品。可以确定,中国在对美贸易中并无重商主义,中国尽管大量生产和出口机械电子产品,但这些产品在中国的生产或是处于这些产品的加工组装阶段、或是这些产品已处于生命周期的成熟阶段(劳动密集型生产阶段),中国对美出口仍是劳动密集品,对美贸易顺差也是因要素禀赋比较优势造成的。
在第四章中,本文进一步对可能促进中国劳动比较优势发挥、造成中国对美出口扩大的因素进行研究,并对这些因素进行协整分析。结果显示,大量的外资进入是促进中国对美出口的主要因素,外资进入使得中国的劳动比较优势得以充分发挥；此外,中国国内居民消费不足也是对美出口扩大的显著影响因素；人民币汇率、中国的出口补贴和进口关税等因素对中国向美国的出口无显著影响。
中美贸易不平衡的原因除中国劳动比较优势的充分发挥这一因素外,还有美国对其资本技术比较优势发挥的限制,主要表现在美国对高技术产品对华出口的直接管制政策。本文第五章详细分析了美国对华技术品出口管制的演进和影响。虽美国对华技术品出口管制政策难以量化,但也能从美国对华技术品出口增长与其管制政策变化的相关性上,确定其对美国向中国出口的限制作用明显。
中美贸易尽管中国向美国出口增长迅速,但完全是因中国的劳动要素比较优势发挥作用的结果。中美贸易顺差增长与中国的大量外资涌入、中国国内居民消费不足以及美国对华技术品出口管制有关,与人民币汇率及中国出口补贴和进口关税等因素无显著关系,因而强迫人民币升值不能从根本上解决顺差,若想从根本上解决中美贸易顺差问题,还需中美双方共同努力。本文第六章提出平衡两国贸易的建议：中国方面要积极调整收入分配以扩大消费内需,合理规划和调整外资的结构；美国方面非常迫切的是放松对华出口的管制等。
During the recent years, with the expansion and development of China foreign trade, trade imbalance with the increasing trade surplus has troubled the stability and continuity of China economic development, while America, the main trade surplus country for China, is suffering from the trade deficit as well. Therefore, the U.S. government has been inputting pressure on China by not only launching several times to "anti-dumping" "countervailing" case investigation on grounds of China, but insisting that China's foreign trade follows a mercantilist, is a "currency manipulator", and accordingly making repeat requests on adjusting the RMB exchange rate. In fact, confronting the growing Sino-US trade imbalance figures, China also has paid a great deal of effort, such as continuous decrease of the exchange rate, promoting the appreciation of Renminbi, and actively importing U.S. soybeans, cotton and civilian aircraft. However, these initiatives can not fundamentally solve the trade imbalance, China and the U.S. trade balance is still expanding. So, what are the reasons behind Sino-US trade imbalance? Has China really not followed endowment advantage in the trade with the U.S. but to implement the mercantilist trade policy? Do China's exchange rate, export subsidies and other policies actually promote the growth of Chinese exports to the U.S.? Confusion of these issues is the starting point of this paper.
The first chapter is to sort out the theory of international trade and the study of foreign scholars on the causes of Sino-US trade surplus. Development of the theory of international trade theory can also be called the development of comparative advantage theory. "Bilateral trade is based on the comparative advantages theory", the cornerstone of the old trade theory, through constant questioning and improvement, has formed a more consistent theoretical point of view:Elements endowments among countries with different comparative advantage is differences in factor endowments; comparative advantages among countries with same factor endowments are economies of scale, differentiated products, technology and other factors. China and the U.S. are typically countries with large differences in factor endowments, comparative advantage by the freedom of trade for China is to export labor-intensive products and import capital-intensive goods from the United States. The present study for Sino-US trade has not quantified and determined whether China has developed and exported products without following factor endowments advantage because of mercantilism do not have the advantages of their products, especially in trade with the U.S..
Sino-US trade in the 1990's has been that China had a deficit-based, but since 1993 the deficit turned to surplus, and the surplus increased very rapidly. The second chapter is to summarize the detailed structure of trade goods of Sino-US trade since 1992. Analyses on Sino-US trade structure since 1992 shows that besides textiles, furniture and other Chinese traditional comparative advantage in labor-intensive products, capital and technology-intensive computers, electronic products, machinery and transport machinery and other products without comparative advantage are also increasingly exported to the U.S. in recent years, and a surplus of these products accounted for almost half of China-US trade surplus. Solely from the perspective of trade goods, it seems that China is actively developing and exporting capital-and technology-intensive goods to the U.S., which do not follow the comparative advantage (mercantilism).
The third chapter is to calculate the needed capital and labor elements for production in trade with the U.S. based on input-output method. Model calculations showed that, although the share of machinery and electronics products China's exported to the U.S is large, but China's trade with the U.S. is still the export of labor-intensive goods to the United States, imports of capital-intensive goods from the United States. It can be concluded that China does not trade with the U.S. under mercantilism, despite the large number of production and export of machinery and electronics products, but these products are produced in China or in the stage of processing and assembly of these products, or in the life cycle of these products have been mature stage (of labor-intensive stages of production), China's exports to the U.S. is still labor-intensive goods, the trade surplus with U.S. is a result of comparative advantage in factor endowments.
The fourth chapter is to make further study on the factors to promote China's comparative advantage in labor and result in expansion of Chinese exports to the U.S., and conduct cointegration model quantitative analysis on these factors. The results show that a large number of foreign investments is the main factor to promote China's exports to the U.S., and foreign investment makes China's labor comparative advantage get full play. In addition, China's domestic consumption scarcity also significantly affected the expansion of the export to the U.S.. At the same time, RMB exchange rate, China export subsidies and import tariffs and other factors on China's exports to the United States had no significant effect.
Besides the full play of China's labor comparative advantage, the reasons of Sino-US trade imbalance also includes that the U.S. has made limitation on its comparative advantage in capital and technology, especially the direct control policy on the U.S. technology exports to China. Therefore, this chapter mainly analyzes the influence and evolution of export control of the U.S. on technology products exports to China. Although U.S. technology exports control policy is difficult to quantify, the relevance between the growth of U.S. technology exports and the change of the control policy can determine their impact on U.S. exports to China significantly restrictive.
In Sino-US trade, the rapid growth in China exports to the U.S is mainly due to China's comparative advantage in labor factors. Growth of Sino-US trade surplus with China has significant relationship with foreign investment influx, inadequate domestic consumption in China and the U.S. export controls of technology to China, while it has no close relationship with RMB exchange rate, China's export subsidies, import tariffs and other factors. Therefore, appreciation of RMB can not be the fundamental solution to the surplus, the two sides need to work together. Chapter six presented the recommendations of the bilateral trade balance: China needs to actively adjust the income distribution in order to expand consumer demand, plan and adjust the structure of foreign investment, while the U.S. needs to relax export controls on China.
本文第一章是对国际贸易相关理论和国内外学者对中美贸易顺差形成原因的研究进行梳理。国际贸易理论的发展也可以称为比较优势理论的发展,“两国贸易是基于比较优势进行的”这一古老的贸易理论基石经过不断的质疑和完善,在理论界形成较为一致的观点：要素禀赋不同的国家间的比较优势是要素禀赋的差异；要素禀赋相同的国家间的比较优势是规模经济、差异产品和技术等因素。中美两国是典型的要素禀赋差异较大的国家,按比较优势进行的自由贸易应是中国出口劳动密集品,自美国进口资本密集品。而目前对于中美贸易的研究中都未能量化和确定中国是否因重商主义而大力发展并出口本国不具备要素禀赋优势的产品,在对美贸易中是否遵循本国的要素禀赋优势。
中美贸易在上个世纪90年代以前一直是以中方逆差为主,但自1993年由逆差转为顺差后,顺差增加极为迅速。本文第二章对1992年至今中美贸易品的详细结构进行总结和梳理。通过对1992年以来中美贸易的贸易品结构进行分析,发现除纺织、家具等中国传统的劳动密集型比较优势产品对美出口不断增加外,原本中国不具备比较优势的、传统观点认为是资本和技术密集型的计算机、电子产品、机械产品及运输机械等产品,近年来也是中国大量向美国出口,且这几类产品的顺差几乎占了中美贸易顺差的-半。单从贸易品的角度来看似乎是中国在大力发展并对美出口本国不具备比较优势的资本技术密集品(重商主义)。
本文第三章运用投入产出法,将2007年中美贸易品按其产品编码与生产部门码进行对应,将贸易品归入其生产部门,对其生产进行投入产出计算,计算出中国对美贸易品生产所需的资本和劳动要素。模型运算的结果显示,尽管中国对美出口的机械电子产品所占份额较大,但中国在对美贸易中仍是向美国出口劳动密集品,自美国进口资本密集品。可以确定,中国在对美贸易中并无重商主义,中国尽管大量生产和出口机械电子产品,但这些产品在中国的生产或是处于这些产品的加工组装阶段、或是这些产品已处于生命周期的成熟阶段(劳动密集型生产阶段),中国对美出口仍是劳动密集品,对美贸易顺差也是因要素禀赋比较优势造成的。
在第四章中,本文进一步对可能促进中国劳动比较优势发挥、造成中国对美出口扩大的因素进行研究,并对这些因素进行协整分析。结果显示,大量的外资进入是促进中国对美出口的主要因素,外资进入使得中国的劳动比较优势得以充分发挥；此外,中国国内居民消费不足也是对美出口扩大的显著影响因素；人民币汇率、中国的出口补贴和进口关税等因素对中国向美国的出口无显著影响。
中美贸易不平衡的原因除中国劳动比较优势的充分发挥这一因素外,还有美国对其资本技术比较优势发挥的限制,主要表现在美国对高技术产品对华出口的直接管制政策。本文第五章详细分析了美国对华技术品出口管制的演进和影响。虽美国对华技术品出口管制政策难以量化,但也能从美国对华技术品出口增长与其管制政策变化的相关性上,确定其对美国向中国出口的限制作用明显。
中美贸易尽管中国向美国出口增长迅速,但完全是因中国的劳动要素比较优势发挥作用的结果。中美贸易顺差增长与中国的大量外资涌入、中国国内居民消费不足以及美国对华技术品出口管制有关,与人民币汇率及中国出口补贴和进口关税等因素无显著关系,因而强迫人民币升值不能从根本上解决顺差,若想从根本上解决中美贸易顺差问题,还需中美双方共同努力。本文第六章提出平衡两国贸易的建议：中国方面要积极调整收入分配以扩大消费内需,合理规划和调整外资的结构；美国方面非常迫切的是放松对华出口的管制等。
During the recent years, with the expansion and development of China foreign trade, trade imbalance with the increasing trade surplus has troubled the stability and continuity of China economic development, while America, the main trade surplus country for China, is suffering from the trade deficit as well. Therefore, the U.S. government has been inputting pressure on China by not only launching several times to "anti-dumping" "countervailing" case investigation on grounds of China, but insisting that China's foreign trade follows a mercantilist, is a "currency manipulator", and accordingly making repeat requests on adjusting the RMB exchange rate. In fact, confronting the growing Sino-US trade imbalance figures, China also has paid a great deal of effort, such as continuous decrease of the exchange rate, promoting the appreciation of Renminbi, and actively importing U.S. soybeans, cotton and civilian aircraft. However, these initiatives can not fundamentally solve the trade imbalance, China and the U.S. trade balance is still expanding. So, what are the reasons behind Sino-US trade imbalance? Has China really not followed endowment advantage in the trade with the U.S. but to implement the mercantilist trade policy? Do China's exchange rate, export subsidies and other policies actually promote the growth of Chinese exports to the U.S.? Confusion of these issues is the starting point of this paper.
The first chapter is to sort out the theory of international trade and the study of foreign scholars on the causes of Sino-US trade surplus. Development of the theory of international trade theory can also be called the development of comparative advantage theory. "Bilateral trade is based on the comparative advantages theory", the cornerstone of the old trade theory, through constant questioning and improvement, has formed a more consistent theoretical point of view:Elements endowments among countries with different comparative advantage is differences in factor endowments; comparative advantages among countries with same factor endowments are economies of scale, differentiated products, technology and other factors. China and the U.S. are typically countries with large differences in factor endowments, comparative advantage by the freedom of trade for China is to export labor-intensive products and import capital-intensive goods from the United States. The present study for Sino-US trade has not quantified and determined whether China has developed and exported products without following factor endowments advantage because of mercantilism do not have the advantages of their products, especially in trade with the U.S..
Sino-US trade in the 1990's has been that China had a deficit-based, but since 1993 the deficit turned to surplus, and the surplus increased very rapidly. The second chapter is to summarize the detailed structure of trade goods of Sino-US trade since 1992. Analyses on Sino-US trade structure since 1992 shows that besides textiles, furniture and other Chinese traditional comparative advantage in labor-intensive products, capital and technology-intensive computers, electronic products, machinery and transport machinery and other products without comparative advantage are also increasingly exported to the U.S. in recent years, and a surplus of these products accounted for almost half of China-US trade surplus. Solely from the perspective of trade goods, it seems that China is actively developing and exporting capital-and technology-intensive goods to the U.S., which do not follow the comparative advantage (mercantilism).
The third chapter is to calculate the needed capital and labor elements for production in trade with the U.S. based on input-output method. Model calculations showed that, although the share of machinery and electronics products China's exported to the U.S is large, but China's trade with the U.S. is still the export of labor-intensive goods to the United States, imports of capital-intensive goods from the United States. It can be concluded that China does not trade with the U.S. under mercantilism, despite the large number of production and export of machinery and electronics products, but these products are produced in China or in the stage of processing and assembly of these products, or in the life cycle of these products have been mature stage (of labor-intensive stages of production), China's exports to the U.S. is still labor-intensive goods, the trade surplus with U.S. is a result of comparative advantage in factor endowments.
The fourth chapter is to make further study on the factors to promote China's comparative advantage in labor and result in expansion of Chinese exports to the U.S., and conduct cointegration model quantitative analysis on these factors. The results show that a large number of foreign investments is the main factor to promote China's exports to the U.S., and foreign investment makes China's labor comparative advantage get full play. In addition, China's domestic consumption scarcity also significantly affected the expansion of the export to the U.S.. At the same time, RMB exchange rate, China export subsidies and import tariffs and other factors on China's exports to the United States had no significant effect.
Besides the full play of China's labor comparative advantage, the reasons of Sino-US trade imbalance also includes that the U.S. has made limitation on its comparative advantage in capital and technology, especially the direct control policy on the U.S. technology exports to China. Therefore, this chapter mainly analyzes the influence and evolution of export control of the U.S. on technology products exports to China. Although U.S. technology exports control policy is difficult to quantify, the relevance between the growth of U.S. technology exports and the change of the control policy can determine their impact on U.S. exports to China significantly restrictive.
In Sino-US trade, the rapid growth in China exports to the U.S is mainly due to China's comparative advantage in labor factors. Growth of Sino-US trade surplus with China has significant relationship with foreign investment influx, inadequate domestic consumption in China and the U.S. export controls of technology to China, while it has no close relationship with RMB exchange rate, China's export subsidies, import tariffs and other factors. Therefore, appreciation of RMB can not be the fundamental solution to the surplus, the two sides need to work together. Chapter six presented the recommendations of the bilateral trade balance: China needs to actively adjust the income distribution in order to expand consumer demand, plan and adjust the structure of foreign investment, while the U.S. needs to relax export controls on China.
引文
① U.S Department of Commerce, Trade Statistics Express(http://tse.export.gov/TSE/MapDisplay.aspx
⑤陈德铭：2011年1月21日,21世纪经济报道网络版。商务部部长陈德铭在接受采访时
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