长沙市住宅市场泡沫及预警研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国政府在解决住房投资不足,改善居民居住条件方面做了有益的探索。特别是1998年住房分配货币化的实施,城镇居民基本告别了住房严重短缺时代,进入到了增加住房面积与改善居住质量并重的新阶段。活跃的住宅市场在改善居民居住条件的同时,也拉动了房价的上涨,增加了居民的购房压力。人们开始质疑市场发展的健康程度,并引发了是否存在房地产泡沫的争论。
本文以长沙市为例,旨在通过住宅市场泡沫含量的监测与评价,建立预警系统,从而判断未来市场泡沫含量的变化及走势,防止房地产泡沫对整个国民经济及城市居民正常生活的影响,促进住宅业的健康持续发展。本文首先从供给、需求、价格三个角度简要地分析了长沙市住宅市场近5年来的发展状况,并结合非均衡理论探讨了1992年至2005年期间市场演变的轨迹,发现长沙市住宅市场经历了供不应求、供过于求、供需基本平衡三个发展阶段。然后,以泡沫理论为基础,利用经济学相关原理对泡沫形成机理进行深入分析,指出投机性需求是泡沫形成的根本原因,并采用定量分析的方法测算出长沙市住宅市场投机度及历年泡沫积累量,结果表明长沙市住宅市场存在一定的投机性需求,泡沫积累量呈波动变化的特征,近年来泡沫累积量虽有所下降但调整速度较为缓慢。为了反映出不同阶段房价对整个住宅市场的影响程度,本文采用时差相关分析方法对住宅市场预警体系的总体构架及设计要点提出了设想,并借助BP神经网络的非线性拟合优势建立了较为合理的预警模型,预警结果表明,2007年长沙市住宅市场处于“中警”状态,住房价格相对于经济基本面的协调度出现了下降。最后,从住宅市场现状及泡沫分析结果结合长沙的实际分析了住宅市场中潜在的风险,并提出化解和防范住宅市场风险的相关措施,以此促进长沙住宅业的持续健康发展。
Ever since China’s reform and opening up to the outside world, the government has made many benefitable trials and efforts in terms of increasing investment and improving residential conditions. Especially, as the reform of the urban housing system in 1998, gone are the years of the severe housing shortage, and the era that places emphasis on increasing residential area and improving residential quality is coming. The active residential property market drives housing price soaring up as well as improves living conditions. With the soaring housing price, the problems whether bubbles exist, and whether the housing market is rational have been brought up.
The purpose of the research is to keep the housing industry healthy, by speeding up the establishment of real estate early warning system which evaluates and monitors the bubbles of housing price. First of all, the paper analyzed the current market situation from supply, demand and price in recent five years in Changsha, and discussed the development orbits of residential property market combined with the disequilibrium theory. Through empirical study on construction of demand and supply,it was found that the residential market development had undergone three stages: supply falling short of demand, supply exceeding demand and equilibrium. Further more, based on the bubble theory, the paper explained the formation mechanism of price bubbles and the primary effect of speculative demand on housing price. Meanwhile, the qualitative analysis of the price bubbles was performed, the results showing that there were certain speculative bubbles characterized by changing fluctuantly and decreasing slowly. In order to analyze the housing price impact on the residential market at different periods, by the method of time-difference correlation analysis we picked up the leading index numbers and according index numbers which were needed in the housing early-warning.The thesis introduced the Back-Propagation Network which has favorite superiority to nonlinear fitting, and constructed rational housing early warning system. The result suggests that the harmony degree of the housing market to economic fundamentals be decreasedin 2007. Finally, the paper analyzed the potential risk existing in the housing market of Changsha in combination with the above results, and proposed related suggestions for policy regulation and control to accelerate the sound development of the residential property market in Changsha.
本文以长沙市为例,旨在通过住宅市场泡沫含量的监测与评价,建立预警系统,从而判断未来市场泡沫含量的变化及走势,防止房地产泡沫对整个国民经济及城市居民正常生活的影响,促进住宅业的健康持续发展。本文首先从供给、需求、价格三个角度简要地分析了长沙市住宅市场近5年来的发展状况,并结合非均衡理论探讨了1992年至2005年期间市场演变的轨迹,发现长沙市住宅市场经历了供不应求、供过于求、供需基本平衡三个发展阶段。然后,以泡沫理论为基础,利用经济学相关原理对泡沫形成机理进行深入分析,指出投机性需求是泡沫形成的根本原因,并采用定量分析的方法测算出长沙市住宅市场投机度及历年泡沫积累量,结果表明长沙市住宅市场存在一定的投机性需求,泡沫积累量呈波动变化的特征,近年来泡沫累积量虽有所下降但调整速度较为缓慢。为了反映出不同阶段房价对整个住宅市场的影响程度,本文采用时差相关分析方法对住宅市场预警体系的总体构架及设计要点提出了设想,并借助BP神经网络的非线性拟合优势建立了较为合理的预警模型,预警结果表明,2007年长沙市住宅市场处于“中警”状态,住房价格相对于经济基本面的协调度出现了下降。最后,从住宅市场现状及泡沫分析结果结合长沙的实际分析了住宅市场中潜在的风险,并提出化解和防范住宅市场风险的相关措施,以此促进长沙住宅业的持续健康发展。
Ever since China’s reform and opening up to the outside world, the government has made many benefitable trials and efforts in terms of increasing investment and improving residential conditions. Especially, as the reform of the urban housing system in 1998, gone are the years of the severe housing shortage, and the era that places emphasis on increasing residential area and improving residential quality is coming. The active residential property market drives housing price soaring up as well as improves living conditions. With the soaring housing price, the problems whether bubbles exist, and whether the housing market is rational have been brought up.
The purpose of the research is to keep the housing industry healthy, by speeding up the establishment of real estate early warning system which evaluates and monitors the bubbles of housing price. First of all, the paper analyzed the current market situation from supply, demand and price in recent five years in Changsha, and discussed the development orbits of residential property market combined with the disequilibrium theory. Through empirical study on construction of demand and supply,it was found that the residential market development had undergone three stages: supply falling short of demand, supply exceeding demand and equilibrium. Further more, based on the bubble theory, the paper explained the formation mechanism of price bubbles and the primary effect of speculative demand on housing price. Meanwhile, the qualitative analysis of the price bubbles was performed, the results showing that there were certain speculative bubbles characterized by changing fluctuantly and decreasing slowly. In order to analyze the housing price impact on the residential market at different periods, by the method of time-difference correlation analysis we picked up the leading index numbers and according index numbers which were needed in the housing early-warning.The thesis introduced the Back-Propagation Network which has favorite superiority to nonlinear fitting, and constructed rational housing early warning system. The result suggests that the harmony degree of the housing market to economic fundamentals be decreasedin 2007. Finally, the paper analyzed the potential risk existing in the housing market of Changsha in combination with the above results, and proposed related suggestions for policy regulation and control to accelerate the sound development of the residential property market in Changsha.
引文
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