基于可支付能力的南京市住房供需结构研究
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摘要
城市住房具有需求量大、产业关联度高、对经济拉动明显等特点,已成为我国经济发展新的增长点,它的健康发展关系到社会各群体尤其是广大人民群众的切身利益。我国的房地产业在发展过程中暴露出许多亟待解决的问题,如部分城市和地区高档商品住房供给比例偏高,中低档住房供给不足,住房供应结构不合理的问题尤为突出等。这不仅造成房价偏高,而且使中低收入群体的住房需求无法满足,妨碍了住房市场的健康稳定发展。
合理的住房供需结构是指导市场、改善居民居住环境、提高资源利用效率,进一步加快城市住房市场发展的根本动力,它对住房市场的发展、房地产业的发展乃至整个国民经济的发展都具有重要意义。同时,过高的房价,以及住房市场中严重的超前消费、过度消费现象,导致我国居民早早的成为“房奴”,生活负担沉重,影响了居民购买力,从长远看也不利于我国经济的健康发展。因此研究现阶段我国住房市场供需结构,引导适度合理的梯度消费,对完善我国的住房供应体系和结构,对促进住房市场和我国房地产业的持续健康发展有重要的意义。
住房可支付能力指标已成为评价居民居住条件和住宅市场发展的常用指标。简单的说,住房可支付能力衡量的是居民是否有能力买得起一套住房。如果存在支付能力危机,住房支付困难的原因所在和住房可支付能力的危机程度就是政府制定住房政策的理论依据。本文运用文献阅读法对国内外相关研究成果进行总结评述,结合相关理论,指出住房消费具有梯度特性。以反映住房可支付能力的剩余法为基本方法,结合住房消费的梯度特性,分别为不同收入层次居民确定相适应的“标准住房”；利用扩展线性支出系统模型计算出南京市城市居民最低生活成本,从而得到不同收入层次居民户均住房消费最大支出,并进一步计算出各种“标准住房”的有效需求比例。通过对城市居民住房有效需求结构和实际供应结构的匹配分析,讨论了南京市住房市场供需结构存在的问题,提出解决意见并为我国住房市场供需结构的发展提出政策建议。
Housing have these characters such as demand for large quantities, high-degree relationship with industries and driving up economyeffectively etc.. In China, housing industry has become a new growth point of National economy, its development affects society stability.the interests of various groups and especially the interest of mass. But going with the development of real estate industry in our country.many extremely urgent problems have emerged, For example, there are excess supply of luxury houses and insufficient supply of middl-grade and low-grade houses in some cities and districts, Among these, The problem of irrational supply structure in housing market Is particularly serious. It not only results in high prices of houses, but also can't satisfy the housing demand of families with middle and low income, which impedes sustainable development of housing market.
As a fundamental motivity for guiding market,rational housing supply and demand structure can improve housing conditions,optimize social resources and advance the progress of housing industty.It has important significance for the real estate industry and housing market,as well as the whole national economy.
Meanwhile, high prices, excessive consumption, and serious advance in the housing market consumption, eading our population become "housing slaves" early. The heavy burden of life, affecting the purchasing power of residents in the long run is not conducive to China's economic healthy development. To guide the housing supply system and form a sustaining housing market and real estate industry in our country,studying the housing supply structure is imperative.
The housing affordability is to measure a household's ability to pay the housing costs. If there's a serious housing affordability problem, the government can use different methods to find the reason and assess the degree of the problem, making urban housing poliey to solve the Problem. This essay, summarizing and commenting on related research findings home and abroad, combined with related theories of gradient consumption. pointed out the gadient characteristics of housing consumption. Using residual method which reflects the affordability of housing as the basic method, combined with housing gradient consumption theory, fit "standard housing" is determined for different income levels; Using the extended linear expenditure system model to calculate the minimum cost of living for urban residents in Nanjing to calculate the largest housing consumption expenditure per household of different income levels, and further calculate the proportion of effective demand of "standard housing". Through the matching analysis of effective demand for urban housing structure and the actual supply structure, discuss and propose problems in supply and demand structure of Nanjing housing market, and then propose policy advice of the housing market supply and demand structure of China.
合理的住房供需结构是指导市场、改善居民居住环境、提高资源利用效率,进一步加快城市住房市场发展的根本动力,它对住房市场的发展、房地产业的发展乃至整个国民经济的发展都具有重要意义。同时,过高的房价,以及住房市场中严重的超前消费、过度消费现象,导致我国居民早早的成为“房奴”,生活负担沉重,影响了居民购买力,从长远看也不利于我国经济的健康发展。因此研究现阶段我国住房市场供需结构,引导适度合理的梯度消费,对完善我国的住房供应体系和结构,对促进住房市场和我国房地产业的持续健康发展有重要的意义。
住房可支付能力指标已成为评价居民居住条件和住宅市场发展的常用指标。简单的说,住房可支付能力衡量的是居民是否有能力买得起一套住房。如果存在支付能力危机,住房支付困难的原因所在和住房可支付能力的危机程度就是政府制定住房政策的理论依据。本文运用文献阅读法对国内外相关研究成果进行总结评述,结合相关理论,指出住房消费具有梯度特性。以反映住房可支付能力的剩余法为基本方法,结合住房消费的梯度特性,分别为不同收入层次居民确定相适应的“标准住房”；利用扩展线性支出系统模型计算出南京市城市居民最低生活成本,从而得到不同收入层次居民户均住房消费最大支出,并进一步计算出各种“标准住房”的有效需求比例。通过对城市居民住房有效需求结构和实际供应结构的匹配分析,讨论了南京市住房市场供需结构存在的问题,提出解决意见并为我国住房市场供需结构的发展提出政策建议。
Housing have these characters such as demand for large quantities, high-degree relationship with industries and driving up economyeffectively etc.. In China, housing industry has become a new growth point of National economy, its development affects society stability.the interests of various groups and especially the interest of mass. But going with the development of real estate industry in our country.many extremely urgent problems have emerged, For example, there are excess supply of luxury houses and insufficient supply of middl-grade and low-grade houses in some cities and districts, Among these, The problem of irrational supply structure in housing market Is particularly serious. It not only results in high prices of houses, but also can't satisfy the housing demand of families with middle and low income, which impedes sustainable development of housing market.
As a fundamental motivity for guiding market,rational housing supply and demand structure can improve housing conditions,optimize social resources and advance the progress of housing industty.It has important significance for the real estate industry and housing market,as well as the whole national economy.
Meanwhile, high prices, excessive consumption, and serious advance in the housing market consumption, eading our population become "housing slaves" early. The heavy burden of life, affecting the purchasing power of residents in the long run is not conducive to China's economic healthy development. To guide the housing supply system and form a sustaining housing market and real estate industry in our country,studying the housing supply structure is imperative.
The housing affordability is to measure a household's ability to pay the housing costs. If there's a serious housing affordability problem, the government can use different methods to find the reason and assess the degree of the problem, making urban housing poliey to solve the Problem. This essay, summarizing and commenting on related research findings home and abroad, combined with related theories of gradient consumption. pointed out the gadient characteristics of housing consumption. Using residual method which reflects the affordability of housing as the basic method, combined with housing gradient consumption theory, fit "standard housing" is determined for different income levels; Using the extended linear expenditure system model to calculate the minimum cost of living for urban residents in Nanjing to calculate the largest housing consumption expenditure per household of different income levels, and further calculate the proportion of effective demand of "standard housing". Through the matching analysis of effective demand for urban housing structure and the actual supply structure, discuss and propose problems in supply and demand structure of Nanjing housing market, and then propose policy advice of the housing market supply and demand structure of China.
引文
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[2]Lowry.Ira.Filtering and Housing standard:A conceptual Analysis[J].Land Economics,1960 (4): 362-370
[3]Gridgdby.W.Housing markets and public policy[J].Philadelphia:University of Pennsylvania Press, 1963
[4]Sweeney, J.L.Quality, commodity hierarchies, and housing markets[J].Econometri-ca,1974(42)
[5]Ohls.J. Public policy toward low-income.Housing and Filtering in Housing Markets[J].Journal of urban Economics,1975:144-171
[6]赖华东,蔡靖方.基于住宅过滤模型的城市住房保障政策选择[J].学习与实践,2007(3)：51-56
[7]R.Green, P.H.Hendershott.Aging, Housing Demand, and Real House Prices.Regional Science and Urban Economics.1996 (26):465-480
[8]邓耀东.抓住住宅需求特点全面启动住宅市场[J].中国房地产金融,1999(4)：6-9
[9]陆杰峰,阮连法.住宅消费者需求研究[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2001(6)：87-93
[10]武永祥,吴芳.由居住需求层次分析看现阶段我国的住宅建设[J].中国房地产,2001(9)：39-40
[11]沈君彬.浅议我国居民住宅的超前消费观念问题：一种消费社会学的视角[J].引进与咨询,2005(3)：28-29
[12]宫晓慧.从梯度消费看中小户型住房的需求[J].企业技术开发,2005(10)：91-93
[13]陈伯庚.创建中国特色的住房消费模式[J].上海房地,2007：9-10
[14]张珉,方靖.论住房的和谐消费[J].铜陵学院学报,2008(3)：19-21
[15]梁宗经,旷芸.应用BP神经网络进行住房需求预测分析型[J].经济师,2006(12)：9-10
[16]熊晓炼.长沙市城镇住房需求预测模型与分析[J].贵州大学报,2006(8)：120-124
[17]高智毅.宁波市城镇住房需求预测与供需缺口[J].科技资讯,2006(25)：46-49
[18]谷宝华.锦州市住宅需求趋势预测[J].辽宁经济,2003(10)：77-80.
[19]葛金辉,桑玉杰.回归模型在房地产市场方面的应用[J].沈阳航空工业学院学报,2003(12)：69-70
[20]李菲.商品房销售动态灰预测[J].辽宁工学院学报,2004(4)：66-68
[21]任荣荣,张红.基于误差修正模型的北京市住宅市场分析及需求预测[J].建筑经济,2005(6)：53-56
[22]陈宏毅,江景波.城市住房系统动态分析模型[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),1995(1)：48-51
[23]孙文建.用灰色系统理论建立住宅需求预测模型的构想[J].南京建筑工程学院学报,1995(2)：1-9
[24]屠梅曾,孙丽波.上海市区住宅需求预测方法研究[J].上海综合经济,1999(11)：27-28
[25]王飞.我国住房供需结构预测模型研究及住房政策评价[D].武汉：华中农业大学,2003
[26]张怀阳.上海市城市居民住房消费函数研究[D].杭州：浙江大学,2005
[27]赵健.我国城镇居民住房需求的动态预测模型[J].天中学刊,2005(4)：33-34
[28]Katz, Rosen.The Interjurisdictional Effects of Growth Controls on Housing Prices.Journal of Low and Economics.1987 (4):549-600
[29]C.Tiebout.A Pure Theory of Local Public Expenditure.Journal of Political Economy.1956 (10): 416-424
[30]C.Smith, D.Ling.Real Estate Perspective.Homewood.IL:Irwin,1998:174-175
[31]R.S.Sandhu, B.C.Aldrich.Third World Housing:The Future Is Now.Habitat Int.1998(3):209-213
[32]彭岩.构建合理供给结构.培育大众住宅市场[J].城市开发,1998(7)：32-35
[33]臧美华.关于搞活房地产交易市场的研究报告[J].北京房地产,1999(1)：23-25
[34]成思危.中国城镇住房制度改革----目标模式与实施难点[M].北京：民主与建设出版社,1999：279-289,304-305,320
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