上海市城市居民住房消费函数研究
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摘要
住房问题是居民和政府最关心的问题之一。住房消费函数反映居民收入与住房消费两者间的决定关系，其将消费作为主要的变量之一，研究住房消费与收入的函数关系，以揭示出主要经济变量之间的某些特殊属性。
专家学者无论是对住房市场还是消费函数都有过较多的研究，但是能从一个具体城市住房市场的角度出发把居民收入与住房消费关系结合起来进行分析实证的则鲜有看到。上海是一个房地产市场化程度比较高的一个城市，也是中国改革开放的龙头城市，具备研究的典型性。因此，本文就是要从住房消费市场的角度来研究上海市居民收入与住房消费的关系，即对上海市住房消费函数进行分析。
本文以消费函数的基本理论为基础，结合上海市的具体情况，分析了上海市城市居民的住房消费函数。在对上海市城市居民住房消费函数分析的基础上，本文进一步研究了“房价收入比”和“住房消费的收入弹性”这两个指标，并就其对上海市城市居民住房消费的影响进行了讨论。
希望通过本文的研究，能够对关注上海市住宅房地产市场的有关各方有所启发。
The housing consumption is one of the most important problems to the resident and government. It shows the relationship between people's income and their housing consumption, in which the consumption is one of the main variables. The research contributes to show some special features among the main economical variables.Although a lot of experts have researched the housing market and the consumption function, there is few ones concern about the relationship between the housing market and the consumption function in a specific region. After the serious consideration, the paper takes the Shanghai housing market as the sample of this research.The paper analysis the housing consumption function of Shanghai housing market based on the theory of consumption function and argues the influence of "the house price to income ratio (PIR) "and" the elasticity of demand" to housing consumption in Shanghai.The purpose of this research is to make the government and real estate developers understand the status of the Shanghai housing market better. And show them the affection of citizen income to the housing consumption. It is a useful reference for the government establishing the appropriate policies and for real estate developers investing in the area.
专家学者无论是对住房市场还是消费函数都有过较多的研究，但是能从一个具体城市住房市场的角度出发把居民收入与住房消费关系结合起来进行分析实证的则鲜有看到。上海是一个房地产市场化程度比较高的一个城市，也是中国改革开放的龙头城市，具备研究的典型性。因此，本文就是要从住房消费市场的角度来研究上海市居民收入与住房消费的关系，即对上海市住房消费函数进行分析。
本文以消费函数的基本理论为基础，结合上海市的具体情况，分析了上海市城市居民的住房消费函数。在对上海市城市居民住房消费函数分析的基础上，本文进一步研究了“房价收入比”和“住房消费的收入弹性”这两个指标，并就其对上海市城市居民住房消费的影响进行了讨论。
希望通过本文的研究，能够对关注上海市住宅房地产市场的有关各方有所启发。
The housing consumption is one of the most important problems to the resident and government. It shows the relationship between people's income and their housing consumption, in which the consumption is one of the main variables. The research contributes to show some special features among the main economical variables.Although a lot of experts have researched the housing market and the consumption function, there is few ones concern about the relationship between the housing market and the consumption function in a specific region. After the serious consideration, the paper takes the Shanghai housing market as the sample of this research.The paper analysis the housing consumption function of Shanghai housing market based on the theory of consumption function and argues the influence of "the house price to income ratio (PIR) "and" the elasticity of demand" to housing consumption in Shanghai.The purpose of this research is to make the government and real estate developers understand the status of the Shanghai housing market better. And show them the affection of citizen income to the housing consumption. It is a useful reference for the government establishing the appropriate policies and for real estate developers investing in the area.
引文
[1] (美)迪帕斯奎尔，(美)惠顿著，龙奋杰等译：《城市经济学与房地产市场》(M)，经济科学出版社，2002．7
[2] 谢经荣等：《房地产经济学》(M)，中国人民大学出版社，2002
[3] 王晓东：《中国城镇居民消费结构和住房消费》(M)，学苑出版社，1999．7
[4] 林白鹏等著：《中国消费结构学》(M)经济科学出版社，1987．12
[5] 安格斯·迪顿著，胡景北、鲁昌译：《理解消费》(M)，上海财经大学出版社，2003
[6] 尹世杰主编：《消费经济学》(M)，高等教育出版社，2003
[7] 贺菊煌著：《消费函数分析》(M)社会科学文献出版社，2000
[8] 世界银行：《中国：城镇住房改革的问题与方案》(M)，中国财政经济出版社，1992
[9] 李子奈编著：《计量经济学》(M)，高等教育出版社，2000
[10] 李子奈，叶阿忠编著：《高等计量经济学》(M)，清华大学出版社，2000
[11] 赵卫亚编著：《计量经济学教程》(M)，上海财经大学出版社，2003
[12] 张晓峒主编：《计量经济学软件EViews使用指南》(M)，南开大学出版社，2004．12
[13] 《中国统计摘要》(M)，中国统计出版社，各年
[14] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2000》(M)，中国统计出版社，2000
[15] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2001》(M)，中国统计出版社，2001
[16] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2002》(M)，中国统计出版社，2002
[17] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2003》(M)，中国统计出版社，2003
[18] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2004》(M)，中国统计出版社，2004
[19] (美)保罗·萨缪尔森(Paul A. Samuelson)，(美)威廉·诺德豪斯(William D.Nordhaus)著；萧琛等译：《经济学》(M)，华夏出版社，1999
[20] 戚名琛：北京普通商品住宅价格合理“倍数”刍议——兼谈如何看待世界银行“3——6倍”数据(J)，北京房地产，1997(5)
[21] 刘洪玉等：住房支付能力分析(J)，《建筑经济》，1999(7)
[22] 吕萍：住房消费收入比的计算与分析(J)，《城乡建设》，2000(8)
[23] 张红，李文诞：北京商品住宅价格变动实证分析(J)，《中国房地产金融》，2001(3)
[24] 蒋达强：上海城镇住房消费需求实证性分析(J)，《软科学》，2001(6)
[25] 叶阿忠：平行数据模型的设定和估计(J)，《合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版》，2002(4)
[26] 郑睿祺，刘洪玉：房价收入比的性质与合理取值范围(J)，《中国房地产》，2002(8)
[27] 李文诞，刘洪玉：中美住房支出比较(J)，《中国房地产》，2002(10)
[28] 王杰：浅析弹性理论存在的问题(J)，《财经问题研究》，2003(4)
[29] 杨超，卢有杰：北京地区住宅价格泡沫的研究(J)，《土木工程学报》，2003(9)
[30] 孙冰，刘洪玉：不同收入家庭抵押贷款(LTV)选择研究(J)，《上海金融》，2003(10)
[31] 平新乔，陈敏彦：融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势，北京大学中国经济研究中心讨论稿系列 NO.C2004001
[32] 袁鸿昌：深圳住房需求收入弹性及其横向比较[OL]，http://blog.soufun.com/blog/post/282_26142.htm, 2004.8.26
[33] Case, Bradford, Henry O. Pollayowski, and Susan M. Wachter. "On Choosing Among House Price Index Methodologies. " AREUEA Journal 19, 3 (1991): 286-307
[34] Case, Bradford, and John Quigley. "The Dynamics of Real Estate Prices. " Review of Economics and statistics 73, 1 (1991):50-58
[35] Case, Karl E., and John Quigley. "Prices of Single-Family Homes Since 1970:New Indxses for Four Cities." New England Economic Review(Sept/Oct 1987:45-56)
[36] Case, Karl E., and Robert J. Shiller. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single Family Homes. " American Economic Review 79, 1(1989): 125-137
[37] Dipasquale, Denise, and C. Tsuriel Somerville. "Do House Price Indexes Based on Transacting Units Represent The Entire Stock? Evidence from the American Housing Survey. " Journal of Housing Economics 4,3(1995)
[38] Dipasquale, Denise, and William C. Wheaton. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices. " Journal of Urban Economics 35(1994:1-27)
[39] Epple, Dennis. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets:Estimating Demand and Supply Functions for Differentiated Products. " Journal of Political Economy 95, 1(1987) :59-80
[40] Haurin, Donald R., and Patric H . Hendershott. "House Price Indexes:Issues and Results. " Areuea Journal 19,3(1991):259-269
[41] Lane, Walter F., William C. Randolph, and Stephen A. Berenson. "Adjusting the CPI Shelter Index to Compensate For Effect of Depreciation. " Monthly Labor Review(October 1988) :34-38
[42] Palmquist, Raymond B. "Alternative Techniques for Developing Real Estate Price Indexes. " Review of Economics and Statistics 66,3(1980) : 442-228
[43] Carliner, Geofrey. "Income Elasticity of Housing Demand. " Review of Economics and Statistics 55(1973):528-532
[44] De Leeuw, Frank. "The Demand for Housing:A Review of Cross-section Evidence. " Review of Economics and Statistics 53,1(1971):1-10
[45] Ellwood, David T., and A. Mitchell Polinsky. "An Empirical Reconciliation of Micro and Grouped Estimates of the Demand for Housing. " Review of Economics and Statistics 61, 2(1979):199-205
[46] Mayo, Stephen K. "Theory and Estimation in the Economics of Housing Demand. " Journal of Urban Economics 10,1(1981):95-116
[47] King, a Thomas. "The Demand for Housing:a Lancastrian Approach. " Southern Economic Journal 43.2(1976):1077-1087
[48] Olsen, Edgar. "The Demand and Supply of Housing Service:A Critical Survey of the Empirical Literature, " chap. 25 in Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics{vol. 2), ed. Edwin S. Mills. New York:North-Holland, 1987.
[2] 谢经荣等：《房地产经济学》(M)，中国人民大学出版社，2002
[3] 王晓东：《中国城镇居民消费结构和住房消费》(M)，学苑出版社，1999．7
[4] 林白鹏等著：《中国消费结构学》(M)经济科学出版社，1987．12
[5] 安格斯·迪顿著，胡景北、鲁昌译：《理解消费》(M)，上海财经大学出版社，2003
[6] 尹世杰主编：《消费经济学》(M)，高等教育出版社，2003
[7] 贺菊煌著：《消费函数分析》(M)社会科学文献出版社，2000
[8] 世界银行：《中国：城镇住房改革的问题与方案》(M)，中国财政经济出版社，1992
[9] 李子奈编著：《计量经济学》(M)，高等教育出版社，2000
[10] 李子奈，叶阿忠编著：《高等计量经济学》(M)，清华大学出版社，2000
[11] 赵卫亚编著：《计量经济学教程》(M)，上海财经大学出版社，2003
[12] 张晓峒主编：《计量经济学软件EViews使用指南》(M)，南开大学出版社，2004．12
[13] 《中国统计摘要》(M)，中国统计出版社，各年
[14] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2000》(M)，中国统计出版社，2000
[15] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2001》(M)，中国统计出版社，2001
[16] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2002》(M)，中国统计出版社，2002
[17] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2003》(M)，中国统计出版社，2003
[18] 上海市统计局编：《上海统计年鉴——2004》(M)，中国统计出版社，2004
[19] (美)保罗·萨缪尔森(Paul A. Samuelson)，(美)威廉·诺德豪斯(William D.Nordhaus)著；萧琛等译：《经济学》(M)，华夏出版社，1999
[20] 戚名琛：北京普通商品住宅价格合理“倍数”刍议——兼谈如何看待世界银行“3——6倍”数据(J)，北京房地产，1997(5)
[21] 刘洪玉等：住房支付能力分析(J)，《建筑经济》，1999(7)
[22] 吕萍：住房消费收入比的计算与分析(J)，《城乡建设》，2000(8)
[23] 张红，李文诞：北京商品住宅价格变动实证分析(J)，《中国房地产金融》，2001(3)
[24] 蒋达强：上海城镇住房消费需求实证性分析(J)，《软科学》，2001(6)
[25] 叶阿忠：平行数据模型的设定和估计(J)，《合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版》，2002(4)
[26] 郑睿祺，刘洪玉：房价收入比的性质与合理取值范围(J)，《中国房地产》，2002(8)
[27] 李文诞，刘洪玉：中美住房支出比较(J)，《中国房地产》，2002(10)
[28] 王杰：浅析弹性理论存在的问题(J)，《财经问题研究》，2003(4)
[29] 杨超，卢有杰：北京地区住宅价格泡沫的研究(J)，《土木工程学报》，2003(9)
[30] 孙冰，刘洪玉：不同收入家庭抵押贷款(LTV)选择研究(J)，《上海金融》，2003(10)
[31] 平新乔，陈敏彦：融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势，北京大学中国经济研究中心讨论稿系列 NO.C2004001
[32] 袁鸿昌：深圳住房需求收入弹性及其横向比较[OL]，http://blog.soufun.com/blog/post/282_26142.htm, 2004.8.26
[33] Case, Bradford, Henry O. Pollayowski, and Susan M. Wachter. "On Choosing Among House Price Index Methodologies. " AREUEA Journal 19, 3 (1991): 286-307
[34] Case, Bradford, and John Quigley. "The Dynamics of Real Estate Prices. " Review of Economics and statistics 73, 1 (1991):50-58
[35] Case, Karl E., and John Quigley. "Prices of Single-Family Homes Since 1970:New Indxses for Four Cities." New England Economic Review(Sept/Oct 1987:45-56)
[36] Case, Karl E., and Robert J. Shiller. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single Family Homes. " American Economic Review 79, 1(1989): 125-137
[37] Dipasquale, Denise, and C. Tsuriel Somerville. "Do House Price Indexes Based on Transacting Units Represent The Entire Stock? Evidence from the American Housing Survey. " Journal of Housing Economics 4,3(1995)
[38] Dipasquale, Denise, and William C. Wheaton. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices. " Journal of Urban Economics 35(1994:1-27)
[39] Epple, Dennis. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets:Estimating Demand and Supply Functions for Differentiated Products. " Journal of Political Economy 95, 1(1987) :59-80
[40] Haurin, Donald R., and Patric H . Hendershott. "House Price Indexes:Issues and Results. " Areuea Journal 19,3(1991):259-269
[41] Lane, Walter F., William C. Randolph, and Stephen A. Berenson. "Adjusting the CPI Shelter Index to Compensate For Effect of Depreciation. " Monthly Labor Review(October 1988) :34-38
[42] Palmquist, Raymond B. "Alternative Techniques for Developing Real Estate Price Indexes. " Review of Economics and Statistics 66,3(1980) : 442-228
[43] Carliner, Geofrey. "Income Elasticity of Housing Demand. " Review of Economics and Statistics 55(1973):528-532
[44] De Leeuw, Frank. "The Demand for Housing:A Review of Cross-section Evidence. " Review of Economics and Statistics 53,1(1971):1-10
[45] Ellwood, David T., and A. Mitchell Polinsky. "An Empirical Reconciliation of Micro and Grouped Estimates of the Demand for Housing. " Review of Economics and Statistics 61, 2(1979):199-205
[46] Mayo, Stephen K. "Theory and Estimation in the Economics of Housing Demand. " Journal of Urban Economics 10,1(1981):95-116
[47] King, a Thomas. "The Demand for Housing:a Lancastrian Approach. " Southern Economic Journal 43.2(1976):1077-1087
[48] Olsen, Edgar. "The Demand and Supply of Housing Service:A Critical Survey of the Empirical Literature, " chap. 25 in Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics{vol. 2), ed. Edwin S. Mills. New York:North-Holland, 1987.