城镇居民住宅消费的影响因素与发展趋势：重庆个案研究
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摘要
进入21世纪以来,随着在全国范围内彻底推行住房制度改革、停止福利住房供应,国内的房地产市场得到飞速发展。我国城镇居民的消费结构发生很大的变化,住宅消费已成为其最大的支出。住宅消费对国民经济增长的拉动作用越来越强有力,已成为社会消费的热点。然而,住宅产业的快速发展引起了住宅价格的大幅上涨,住宅供给结构不合理,住宅市场供需不平衡等一系列社会问题。
本文采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法,分析了重庆市商品房市场存在的问题和城镇居民住宅消费的现状,发现:①在总量上,重庆的商品房市场处于“需求饥渴”状态;②在结构上,重庆商品住宅长期处于供不应求的状态,供求失衡较为严重,并且这种态势有愈演愈烈的趋势;与住宅市场的表现相反,商业用房与办公用房则长期处于供过于求的局面,而且其供给面积所占比重不断攀升,供求缺口不断扩大;③在商品住宅价格上,其涨幅过快,房价远远超出了居民的实际购买力。总之,城镇居民的住宅消费支出曲线呈现波澜起伏的状态,且住宅消费总趋势是在逐渐趋于理性化。
基于上述分析的结果,借助时变参数模型分析城镇居民人均可支配收入对住宅消费的影响,发现:自1979年以来,重庆市城镇居民对住宅的边际消费倾向呈现递增的趋势。这与我国逐步实施住宅制度改革,取消福利化分房,个人购买住房方面的支出增加相一致。对于影响消费的另一个重要因素——价格,本文也采用协整检验测算了商品房销售价格和住宅消费之间的关系,发现二者的协整系数为1.494737,表明商品房销售价格与人均居住消费支出存在显著的正相关关系。为了判定均衡关系是否构成因果关系,因果关系的方向如何,采用格兰杰因果检验,发现目前学术界盛行的观点——“过于旺盛的住宅消费需求导致住宅价格上涨”有失偏颇。我们认为住宅价格的上涨更偏重于宏观经济增长、长期利率或税率、信贷、城市规划或拆迁安置、过高的土地出让成本等因素。由于商品房销售价格变动是导致居民住宅消费支出变化的Granger成因,因此,我国目前过高的商品房价格使得住房消费支出占据了居民的可支配收入中的很大一部分,这样居民不得不减少对其他商品的消费,并且居民对住宅的消费存在很大负担。
然后利用自回归移动平均模型预测模型对重庆市城镇居民未来5年(2008-2012年)的人均住宅消费支出做出预测。根据这一预测结果,文章从政府、开发商以及消费者三方面提出了合理调控土地资源,大力发展二手房市场,政府直接或间接建房以保证经济适用房、廉租房的供给,发展节能省地型住宅,建立梯度消费的住宅消费观念,理性住宅投资等一些稳定房价、扩大住宅消费的策略建议,以供参考。
When it came the 21st century, China thoroughly canceled the welfare housing Policy and carried out the housing Policy reform over all the country. Therefore,the real estate market has developed rapidly in our country. At the same time,the consumption structures of urban residents have been changed greatly and the housing consumption has become their important expenditure. And the housing consumption encourages the economic increasing powerfully. It has been the focus of society consumption. However,the fast developing of housing industry has caused a series of social Problems,such as housing Price rising quickly,housing structure being unreasonable,the supplying and needing being not equilibrium etc.
In this paper, combined the qualitative and quantitative research methods, analyze the problem in commercial buildings market and the status of urban residents housing consumption in Chongqing, found that:①in total, the housing market shows "demand thirst" status;②in Structure, the housing market was in short supply for a long term, imbalance between supply and demand was serious, and this trend is getting worse, contrary with the housing market, commercial buildings and office buildings are in the long-term oversupply situation, and the gap between demand and supply is continuing rise.③in housing market,the price is rising too fast, housing prices far beyond the actual purchasing power of residents, the residential consumption showed the state of up and down, and the general trend is gradually getting rational.
And the Paper use of time-varying parameter model analyzes the relationship between domestic consumption of urban residents and per capita disposable income; found that since 1979, urban residents’consumption on domestic showed a marginal increase trend in Chongqing. This is the result of China's gradual implementation of domestic reforms, abolition of welfare housing sharing, and personal purchase of housing consistent increase in expenditure. To the impact of the consumption another important factor-price, the paper also used co integration regression testing the relationship between the sales price of commercial housing and residential consumption, showed that there was a significant positive correlation between them. Then, the paper forecasts the average quantities of the housing consumption for the urban residents in Chongqing from 2008 to 2013 using ARMA (Auto-regressive Moving Average) models. At last, the paper puts forward a series At last,the Paper Puts forward a series of countermeasures (such as distributing the land resource reasonably,ensuring the supplying of affordable housing and low-cost housing,developing the housing which can save resources, establishing the ladder consumption concept etc.)to help to solve the existent Problems in the housing market from the Perspectives of government, real estate developers and consumers.
本文采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法,分析了重庆市商品房市场存在的问题和城镇居民住宅消费的现状,发现:①在总量上,重庆的商品房市场处于“需求饥渴”状态;②在结构上,重庆商品住宅长期处于供不应求的状态,供求失衡较为严重,并且这种态势有愈演愈烈的趋势;与住宅市场的表现相反,商业用房与办公用房则长期处于供过于求的局面,而且其供给面积所占比重不断攀升,供求缺口不断扩大;③在商品住宅价格上,其涨幅过快,房价远远超出了居民的实际购买力。总之,城镇居民的住宅消费支出曲线呈现波澜起伏的状态,且住宅消费总趋势是在逐渐趋于理性化。
基于上述分析的结果,借助时变参数模型分析城镇居民人均可支配收入对住宅消费的影响,发现:自1979年以来,重庆市城镇居民对住宅的边际消费倾向呈现递增的趋势。这与我国逐步实施住宅制度改革,取消福利化分房,个人购买住房方面的支出增加相一致。对于影响消费的另一个重要因素——价格,本文也采用协整检验测算了商品房销售价格和住宅消费之间的关系,发现二者的协整系数为1.494737,表明商品房销售价格与人均居住消费支出存在显著的正相关关系。为了判定均衡关系是否构成因果关系,因果关系的方向如何,采用格兰杰因果检验,发现目前学术界盛行的观点——“过于旺盛的住宅消费需求导致住宅价格上涨”有失偏颇。我们认为住宅价格的上涨更偏重于宏观经济增长、长期利率或税率、信贷、城市规划或拆迁安置、过高的土地出让成本等因素。由于商品房销售价格变动是导致居民住宅消费支出变化的Granger成因,因此,我国目前过高的商品房价格使得住房消费支出占据了居民的可支配收入中的很大一部分,这样居民不得不减少对其他商品的消费,并且居民对住宅的消费存在很大负担。
然后利用自回归移动平均模型预测模型对重庆市城镇居民未来5年(2008-2012年)的人均住宅消费支出做出预测。根据这一预测结果,文章从政府、开发商以及消费者三方面提出了合理调控土地资源,大力发展二手房市场,政府直接或间接建房以保证经济适用房、廉租房的供给,发展节能省地型住宅,建立梯度消费的住宅消费观念,理性住宅投资等一些稳定房价、扩大住宅消费的策略建议,以供参考。
When it came the 21st century, China thoroughly canceled the welfare housing Policy and carried out the housing Policy reform over all the country. Therefore,the real estate market has developed rapidly in our country. At the same time,the consumption structures of urban residents have been changed greatly and the housing consumption has become their important expenditure. And the housing consumption encourages the economic increasing powerfully. It has been the focus of society consumption. However,the fast developing of housing industry has caused a series of social Problems,such as housing Price rising quickly,housing structure being unreasonable,the supplying and needing being not equilibrium etc.
In this paper, combined the qualitative and quantitative research methods, analyze the problem in commercial buildings market and the status of urban residents housing consumption in Chongqing, found that:①in total, the housing market shows "demand thirst" status;②in Structure, the housing market was in short supply for a long term, imbalance between supply and demand was serious, and this trend is getting worse, contrary with the housing market, commercial buildings and office buildings are in the long-term oversupply situation, and the gap between demand and supply is continuing rise.③in housing market,the price is rising too fast, housing prices far beyond the actual purchasing power of residents, the residential consumption showed the state of up and down, and the general trend is gradually getting rational.
And the Paper use of time-varying parameter model analyzes the relationship between domestic consumption of urban residents and per capita disposable income; found that since 1979, urban residents’consumption on domestic showed a marginal increase trend in Chongqing. This is the result of China's gradual implementation of domestic reforms, abolition of welfare housing sharing, and personal purchase of housing consistent increase in expenditure. To the impact of the consumption another important factor-price, the paper also used co integration regression testing the relationship between the sales price of commercial housing and residential consumption, showed that there was a significant positive correlation between them. Then, the paper forecasts the average quantities of the housing consumption for the urban residents in Chongqing from 2008 to 2013 using ARMA (Auto-regressive Moving Average) models. At last, the paper puts forward a series At last,the Paper Puts forward a series of countermeasures (such as distributing the land resource reasonably,ensuring the supplying of affordable housing and low-cost housing,developing the housing which can save resources, establishing the ladder consumption concept etc.)to help to solve the existent Problems in the housing market from the Perspectives of government, real estate developers and consumers.
引文
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杭斌,申春兰.经济转型中消费与收入的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系——中国城镇居民消费行为实证研究[J].管理世界,2004 (5),25-31.
何小刚,蓝光喜.住房制度变迁、市场扭曲与高房价[J].湖北经济学院学报,2006 (5):80-83.
胡乃武,张海峰,张琅.中国居民消费研究[J].消费经济,2001(1):6-100.
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李爱华,成思危.城镇居民住房购买力研究[D].管理科学学报,2006(5):8-17.
李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.城市房地产市场综合景气指数的构造与分析[J].华中科技大学学报,2003,20(1):9-13.
李斌.基于资源的房地产开发企业能力及其进化过程分析[J].华中科技大学学报,2007,24(1):67-70.
李锐,项海容.不同类型的收入对农村居民消费的影响[J].中国农村经济,2004 (6).
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