航空武器装备制造供应链绩效评价与改进策略研究
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摘要
航空武器装备(以飞机为例)是以战争需求为背景的具有高科技特征的特殊商品,具有研制周期长、投资数额大、技术风险高、参研单位广、环境不确定及影响因素多等特点,其制造过程的供应链是由一系列紧密围绕航空武器装备制造主体企业的众多企业组成的利益共同体。
当前,我国航空武器装备制造供应链主要面临着:市场开发积极性不高,技术创新动力不足,缺乏有效的约束、激励机制和目标管理及绩效评定的评价体系不完善等问题,还没有真正解决好投资与效益、局部利益与整体利益、科研与生产、型号与预研、创新与跟随、成果与转化等方面关系,缺乏从航空武器装备制造供应链整体规划入手,研究缩短订单周期与各利益主体利益实现之间的关系。
航空武器装备制造供应链绩效的改进是航空武器装备制造企业提高竞争力的必然要求。解决以上问题的基本思路在于从航空武器装备制造供应链整体运行机制出发,对供应链的运作绩效进行系统、客观评价,找出改善供应链运作绩效的具体管理办法,实现航空武器装备制造供应链绩效的持续改进。
本文运用系统动力学的理论与分析方法,对航空武器制造装备供应链的绩效进行评价,并提出了相应管理策略,具体研究内容有:
1、通过理论分析与实际调研,研究航空武器装备制造供应链形成机理与运行模式,在此基础上归纳出航空武器装备制造供应链的运行机制;
2、进行了评价方法的创新研究,提出基于系统动力学的动态评价方法。通过对评价指标体系中评价指标进行分类分析,提出绩效评价中目标变量、行为变量与相关变量等概念,并结合实际建立航空武器装备制造供应链的整体绩效评价指标体系;
3、以系统动力学反馈动态复杂性分析技术与流率基本入树建模法为基础,建立了基于流率基本入树建模法的评价指标模型,利用X-0-1行列式反馈基模计算分析技术与枝向量行列式反馈环计算分析技术,对评价指标体系系统结构模型进行分析;
4、对航空武器装备制造供应链绩效改进策略仿真研究。以仿真技术为基础,对航空武器装备制造供应链绩效与管理策略具体案例进行分析。通过模型的仿真分析,定量分析航空武器装备制造供应链绩效评价的系统行为。
本文的主要创新点有:
1、通过对航空武器装备制造供应链形成机理与运行模式的研究分析,阐述了航空武器装备制造供应链的运行机制,并以系统科学理论为基础,通过对航空武器装备制造供应链的主机厂、军工部门、零部件供应商等多主体子系统的绩效分析,提出了航空武器装备制造供应链绩效评价中目标变量、行为变量与相关变量等概念,构建了面向航空武器装备制造供应链绩效管理全流程的绩效评价指标体系。
2、构建了航空武器装备制造供应链的流率基本入树模型,建立了描述航空武器装备制造供应链整体运行系统、绩效评价系统的14个流位变量和14个微分方程组,实现了对航空武器装备制造供应链的数学描述。
3、以平衡记分卡多角度度量绩效的研究思路出发,通过供应链整体目标分解、实现目标的主要行为分解、供应链中主体目标与行为的分解等,研究主体行为与目标同整体供应链目标实现的途径,解决了以往评价方法中无法有效描述评价指标之间相互影响的缺点,为构建系统动力学模型及仿真方程奠定了基础。
4、系统动态地对航空武器装备制造供应链整体绩效的影响因素进行分析并提出相应改进对策。
Aeronautic weapon, taking airplane for example, is a special high-tech commodity on the demand of war. Aeronautic weapon is characterized by a long-period researching cycle, big investment, high risk, vast research units involved, uncertain environment and extensive influencing factors and so on. During the process of manufacturing, the supply chain is like a community which consists of numbers of enterprises closely connected to aeronautic weapon manufacturing and shares mutual benefits.
In China, there are major problems existing in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing, including low enthusiasm in the market development, lack of innovation spirit, lack of an efficient restriction, lack of incentive mechanism and evaluation system to evaluate management and performance. In aeronautic weapon production manufacturing, there are several pairs of conflicts between investment and efficiency, partial interests and overall interests, scientific research and manufacturing, type and pre-research, innovation and tracking, and between results and conversion. We have neglected to make an overall plan from the point of view that aeronautic weapon's supply chain should achieve the goal of shortening the cycles in making orders and of realizing the benefits of all groups.
The improvemen(?) of the performance in the supply chain is inevitably crucial to enhance competitive power in aeronautic weapon manufacturing. The basic measure to deal with the problems mentioned above is to evaluate supply chain and its performance systematically and objectively from the angle of treating the aeronautic weapon supply chain as a whole operating mechanism. And then specific managing methods to improve the performance of the supply chain are expected to be found, so as to sustain the improvement of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing's supply chain.
In this essay, by using the theory of system dynamics and its analytic procedure, the performance of the supply chain in the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is evaluated and certain management policies are brought forward. The research contents are as follows:
1. Through the theoretical analysis and practical investigation, the formation mechanism and operating mechanism of the supply chain in the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is thoroughly studied. Based on such a research, theories on the operating mechanism of the supply chain in aeronautic weapon manufacturing are generalized.
2. Innovational research about assessment methods is done, and the dynamic assessment method based on the theory of system dynamics is put forward. By analyzing the classification of the evaluation index in evaluation index system, concepts such as target variables, conduct variables and correlation variables are promoted in performance evaluation. And the performance evaluation index system in aeronautic weapon manufacturing is established.
3. Based on dynamic feedback complexity analysis technology in the system dynamics and the rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling method, the evaluation index model which is based on the rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling method is built up and the analysis of the structure model of the evaluation index system is done by the analysis technology of X-0-1 determinant feedback fundamental modeling and branch vector determinant feedback loop.
4. Study is done on the simulation of the modified strategy in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing. On the base of the simulation technology, the performance of the supply chain in aeronautic weapon manufacturing and actual cases of the management strategy will be deeply examined. By studying the simulation of the model, the system behaviour of performance evaluation in the supply chain of aeronautic weapon manufacturing is analyzed quantitatively.
Major innovation points are included:
1. Through the analysis on the formation mechanism and operating mechanism of the supply chain in the aeronautic weapon manufacturing, theories on the operating mechanism of the supply chain in aeronautic weapon manufacturing are generalized. Based on the theory of system science, this research attempts to establish multi-subject and multi-subsystem performance evaluation which aims to evaluate each link in the supply chain, such as main engine plants, arms industry department and contractors who supply spare parts, and to promote concepts such as target variables, conduct variables and correalation variables in performance evaluation. In the meanwhile, the performance evaluation index system in the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is established.
2. The rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is formed. And the operating system in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is also constructed, so do the 14 flow digits and 14 differential equation sets in the performance evaluation system. Thus the mathematical description of the supply chain in the aeronautic weap(?)n manufacturing is realized.
3. Balanced Scorecard will be used to evaluate performance in multi-angle perspectives. When the evaluation index system is set up, several issues should be involved, which include the decomposition of the overall goal in the supply chain, of main actions taken to realize the goal and of subjects' behaviour and goals in supply chain. By analyzing behaviour and goals of subjects and ways to achieve the overall goal, evaluation index system is expected to come into being. By using such a method, old evaluation measures could be pale in comparison, because it won't able to effectively point out disadvantages that happens when evaluation indexes interact with each other. Moreover, this research is expected to pave the way for establishing the system dynamics model and simulating equation in evaluation index system.
4. Analyses on the causes of the overall performance in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing are brought up and related improvements are proposed.
当前,我国航空武器装备制造供应链主要面临着:市场开发积极性不高,技术创新动力不足,缺乏有效的约束、激励机制和目标管理及绩效评定的评价体系不完善等问题,还没有真正解决好投资与效益、局部利益与整体利益、科研与生产、型号与预研、创新与跟随、成果与转化等方面关系,缺乏从航空武器装备制造供应链整体规划入手,研究缩短订单周期与各利益主体利益实现之间的关系。
航空武器装备制造供应链绩效的改进是航空武器装备制造企业提高竞争力的必然要求。解决以上问题的基本思路在于从航空武器装备制造供应链整体运行机制出发,对供应链的运作绩效进行系统、客观评价,找出改善供应链运作绩效的具体管理办法,实现航空武器装备制造供应链绩效的持续改进。
本文运用系统动力学的理论与分析方法,对航空武器制造装备供应链的绩效进行评价,并提出了相应管理策略,具体研究内容有:
1、通过理论分析与实际调研,研究航空武器装备制造供应链形成机理与运行模式,在此基础上归纳出航空武器装备制造供应链的运行机制;
2、进行了评价方法的创新研究,提出基于系统动力学的动态评价方法。通过对评价指标体系中评价指标进行分类分析,提出绩效评价中目标变量、行为变量与相关变量等概念,并结合实际建立航空武器装备制造供应链的整体绩效评价指标体系;
3、以系统动力学反馈动态复杂性分析技术与流率基本入树建模法为基础,建立了基于流率基本入树建模法的评价指标模型,利用X-0-1行列式反馈基模计算分析技术与枝向量行列式反馈环计算分析技术,对评价指标体系系统结构模型进行分析;
4、对航空武器装备制造供应链绩效改进策略仿真研究。以仿真技术为基础,对航空武器装备制造供应链绩效与管理策略具体案例进行分析。通过模型的仿真分析,定量分析航空武器装备制造供应链绩效评价的系统行为。
本文的主要创新点有:
1、通过对航空武器装备制造供应链形成机理与运行模式的研究分析,阐述了航空武器装备制造供应链的运行机制,并以系统科学理论为基础,通过对航空武器装备制造供应链的主机厂、军工部门、零部件供应商等多主体子系统的绩效分析,提出了航空武器装备制造供应链绩效评价中目标变量、行为变量与相关变量等概念,构建了面向航空武器装备制造供应链绩效管理全流程的绩效评价指标体系。
2、构建了航空武器装备制造供应链的流率基本入树模型,建立了描述航空武器装备制造供应链整体运行系统、绩效评价系统的14个流位变量和14个微分方程组,实现了对航空武器装备制造供应链的数学描述。
3、以平衡记分卡多角度度量绩效的研究思路出发,通过供应链整体目标分解、实现目标的主要行为分解、供应链中主体目标与行为的分解等,研究主体行为与目标同整体供应链目标实现的途径,解决了以往评价方法中无法有效描述评价指标之间相互影响的缺点,为构建系统动力学模型及仿真方程奠定了基础。
4、系统动态地对航空武器装备制造供应链整体绩效的影响因素进行分析并提出相应改进对策。
Aeronautic weapon, taking airplane for example, is a special high-tech commodity on the demand of war. Aeronautic weapon is characterized by a long-period researching cycle, big investment, high risk, vast research units involved, uncertain environment and extensive influencing factors and so on. During the process of manufacturing, the supply chain is like a community which consists of numbers of enterprises closely connected to aeronautic weapon manufacturing and shares mutual benefits.
In China, there are major problems existing in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing, including low enthusiasm in the market development, lack of innovation spirit, lack of an efficient restriction, lack of incentive mechanism and evaluation system to evaluate management and performance. In aeronautic weapon production manufacturing, there are several pairs of conflicts between investment and efficiency, partial interests and overall interests, scientific research and manufacturing, type and pre-research, innovation and tracking, and between results and conversion. We have neglected to make an overall plan from the point of view that aeronautic weapon's supply chain should achieve the goal of shortening the cycles in making orders and of realizing the benefits of all groups.
The improvemen(?) of the performance in the supply chain is inevitably crucial to enhance competitive power in aeronautic weapon manufacturing. The basic measure to deal with the problems mentioned above is to evaluate supply chain and its performance systematically and objectively from the angle of treating the aeronautic weapon supply chain as a whole operating mechanism. And then specific managing methods to improve the performance of the supply chain are expected to be found, so as to sustain the improvement of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing's supply chain.
In this essay, by using the theory of system dynamics and its analytic procedure, the performance of the supply chain in the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is evaluated and certain management policies are brought forward. The research contents are as follows:
1. Through the theoretical analysis and practical investigation, the formation mechanism and operating mechanism of the supply chain in the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is thoroughly studied. Based on such a research, theories on the operating mechanism of the supply chain in aeronautic weapon manufacturing are generalized.
2. Innovational research about assessment methods is done, and the dynamic assessment method based on the theory of system dynamics is put forward. By analyzing the classification of the evaluation index in evaluation index system, concepts such as target variables, conduct variables and correlation variables are promoted in performance evaluation. And the performance evaluation index system in aeronautic weapon manufacturing is established.
3. Based on dynamic feedback complexity analysis technology in the system dynamics and the rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling method, the evaluation index model which is based on the rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling method is built up and the analysis of the structure model of the evaluation index system is done by the analysis technology of X-0-1 determinant feedback fundamental modeling and branch vector determinant feedback loop.
4. Study is done on the simulation of the modified strategy in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing. On the base of the simulation technology, the performance of the supply chain in aeronautic weapon manufacturing and actual cases of the management strategy will be deeply examined. By studying the simulation of the model, the system behaviour of performance evaluation in the supply chain of aeronautic weapon manufacturing is analyzed quantitatively.
Major innovation points are included:
1. Through the analysis on the formation mechanism and operating mechanism of the supply chain in the aeronautic weapon manufacturing, theories on the operating mechanism of the supply chain in aeronautic weapon manufacturing are generalized. Based on the theory of system science, this research attempts to establish multi-subject and multi-subsystem performance evaluation which aims to evaluate each link in the supply chain, such as main engine plants, arms industry department and contractors who supply spare parts, and to promote concepts such as target variables, conduct variables and correalation variables in performance evaluation. In the meanwhile, the performance evaluation index system in the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is established.
2. The rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is formed. And the operating system in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing is also constructed, so do the 14 flow digits and 14 differential equation sets in the performance evaluation system. Thus the mathematical description of the supply chain in the aeronautic weap(?)n manufacturing is realized.
3. Balanced Scorecard will be used to evaluate performance in multi-angle perspectives. When the evaluation index system is set up, several issues should be involved, which include the decomposition of the overall goal in the supply chain, of main actions taken to realize the goal and of subjects' behaviour and goals in supply chain. By analyzing behaviour and goals of subjects and ways to achieve the overall goal, evaluation index system is expected to come into being. By using such a method, old evaluation measures could be pale in comparison, because it won't able to effectively point out disadvantages that happens when evaluation indexes interact with each other. Moreover, this research is expected to pave the way for establishing the system dynamics model and simulating equation in evaluation index system.
4. Analyses on the causes of the overall performance in the supply chain of the aeronautic weapon manufacturing are brought up and related improvements are proposed.
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