低碳经济视角下新能源CDM项目的国际合作问题研究
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摘要
“低碳经济”是世界经济发展面对的共同课题。它是以“低能耗、低污染、低排放”为基础的经济模式,其实质是通过降低能耗和减少污染物排放,建立合理的能源结构,从而达到社会经济发展与生态环境保护双赢的一种经济发展形态。低碳经济既是能源“低碳化”的理论基础,又是可持续发展的主要体现,同时还是新能源发展的动力所在。
为应对全球气候变化,全球应对气候变化的国际制度框架《联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC)》和《京都议定书》分别签订,提出“到2050年要将大气中二氧化碳浓度控制在工业化之前水平的2倍以内”;《京都议定书》确立了联合履约机制(JI)、清洁发展机制(CDM)和排放交易机制(ET)三种国际合作机制,其中CDM是唯一涉及发展中国家的“灵活机制”,是实现低碳经济和能源可持续发展的重要经济手段。CDM能够促使发达国家通过提供“资金和技术”的方式与发展中国家开展项目合作,同时将项目实现的核证减排量(CERs)用于履行其在《议定书》中的承诺,是发展中国家与发达国家合作共赢的一种机制。通过CDM,可以实现全球降低温室气体减排成本的效果,促进各国低碳经济的实现。
我国CDM市场潜力巨大,从数量和对碳排放的贡献上看,新能源CDM项目占主导地位。当前,以“高碳”为主要特征的能源结构严重制约我国低碳经济的实现,而CDM的实施则有助于我国吸收额外的资金、促进技术转让,促进新能源产业发展。所以,我们应充分利用好CDM等相关国际经济合作手段,大力发展新能源,调整能源结构,保证能源可持续发展。
从国内外研究分析,我们不难发现目前学者对新能源CDM项目的研究,大多数缺乏成体系的综合性分析,定量研究少而浅。另外从低碳经济视角出发,对新能源CDM项目的碳排放方法学原理、国际合作技术转让机理以及风险评估模型的构建及实证展开研究的也较少。
因此,综合上述分析,本文在调查研究、整理资料的基础上,以低碳经济理论、产业发展理论、可持续发展理论、市场外部性理论、比较优势理论等为依据,基于低碳经济视角,针对CDM运行机理及其对新能源发展影响展开分析:
首先,从碳交易概念和产生背景出发,分析了CDM、JI、ET等三大碳交易机制各自发展状况、理论特点;分析了我国参与碳交易的必要性:中国只有构建全球性的碳市场,才能在整个碳交易产业链上掌握主动权,从而规避CDM项目的风险;分析了CDM内涵和特点和CDM的双赢性:它一方面可促进发展中国家可持续发展,获得“技术和资金”,另一方面它可协助发达国家实现温室气体减排承诺;最后分析了CDM范围、相关机构职责和项目开发流程,为后续开展CDM项目研究提供理论支持。
其次,分析了CDM对能源可持续发展和对低碳经济发展作用。研究了制约我国能源发展的障碍:如“高碳”能源结构不合理、能源效率低下、严重的能源环境与能源安全问题;探讨了我国新能源对改善能源结构、促进节能减排作用,CDM对新能源的发展有较强的相关性,CDM有利于新能源的技术转移和融资,是发展新能源、促进低碳经济实现的重要经济手段;最后提出有效推进我国新能源发展的建议。
再者,分析了我国新能源CDM项目发展现状和潜力。通过国内外CDM项目现状的对比分析,指出我国CDM项目的数量和对碳排放的贡献在国际上都处主导地位。接着以水电、风电以及生物质发电的CDM项目为代表,分析了我国新能源CDM项目的市场现状、减排贡献及发展潜力;本节最后运用SWOT分析法,深入研究了新能源CDM项目的优势、劣势、机遇、威胁,指出我国开发新能源CDM项目存在的主要问题,并提出相应对策。
最后,基于上述分析,着重分析了以下三个新能源CDM项目在国际合作开发中的关键问题:
1、国际合作开发中新能源CDM项目的碳排放核证方法原理及应用研究
针对CDM方法学和额外性判定问题,分析了碳排放基准线选择、额外性判定和考量、方法学的确定等,着重分析了新能源常用的方法学类型。最后以山西某水电CDM项目为例,运用统一基准线方法学对该项目的碳减排量进行了定量计算,为新能源CDM项目的方法学选择和核证过程提供参考。
2、对新能源领域CDM项目的国际技术转让机理及实证研究
首先,分析了技术转让内涵、国际技术转让和CDM项目国际技术转让问题;接着,从CDM项目技术转让类型、模式、流程三个角度详细介绍了CDM技术转让的机理;最后,着重研究了促进国际新能源CDM项目技术转让的模型——博弈谈判模型和讨价还价模型,并以吉林某生物质发电CDM项目和内蒙某风电CDM项目为例,论证了技术转让博弈模型在CDM国际合作技术转让谈判的作用,以及技术转让讨价还价模型在CDM国际合作技术转让中的适用性。
3、对新能源CDM项目的风险预测与评价模型构建的研究并实证分析
依据CDM项目开发流程中不同阶段可能遇到的问题,将CDM项目的风险总结归纳为注册风险、项目建设和运营风险等七种风险,在此基础上,利用蒙特卡洛模型和模糊综合评价方法,建立了新能源CDM项目风险预测和评价模型;并以某成功注册的小水电CDM项目为例,对新能源CDM项目的风险进行实例分析;最后针对新能源领域CDM项目存在的问题提出相应对策。以上模型构建和实证分析为规避新能源CDM项目开发过程中的风险提供了科学依据。
通过以上分析,本文得出以下结论:(1)我国发展新能源具有很大必要性,而CDM对促进我国新能源发展具有积极作用。(2)新能源CDM项目具有节能减排效益,但也存在开发问题。(3)从基准线方法学角度分析了新能源的常用的碳减排方法原理并加以实证。(4)新能源CDM项目可促进技术转让,尤其是促进先进的环境友好型技术的转让。(5)新能源CDM项目在具体实施过程中存在风险,但可进行跟踪评价。
上述研究成果解决了我国新能源CDM项目在国际合作开发中的主要问题,可借鉴到整个CDM系统中,使得对新能源CDM项目开发的研究更系统化,更具可操作性、可行性和实践性。本文创新点在于:
(1)以可持续发展理论为指导,从低碳经济视角对新能源发展、国际CDM项目合作运作机理等问题进行了全面深入的系统研究,构建了研究的整体框架和路线。
(2)以CDM对新能源发展的促进作用为切入点,深入探讨了CDM对新能源发展的促进作用、影响机理和风险评价方法。
(3)深入探讨了基于国际通行规则和统一基准线方法学ACM0002定量分析新能源CDM项目对减排贡献的数理模型,并成功地将该模型应用于陕西某水电项目减排量的测算。
(4)构建了新能源CDM国际技术转让项目的博弈模型和讨价还价模型,并以吉林某生物质发电CDM项目和内蒙某风电CDM项目为例进行实证分析,。
(5)构建了新能源CDM项目风险分析和预测的蒙特卡洛模型,并以四川某水电站CDM项目为例对新能源CDM项目的风险进行实例分析,为规避CDM项目的开发风险提供了科学依据。
The "low- carbon economy" is a common topic in world economy development, it is based on the following characteristics :"low energy consumption, low pollution, low emission”,its essence is to build a reasonable energy structure through reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions, and so as to achieve a " win-win " economy development pattern about the social economic development and ecological environment protection. Low-carbon economy is not only the theoretical basis of energy low-carbonization, but also the reflection of sustainable development, and it is also the main motive of new energy the development.
In response to the global climate change,“Kyoto Protocol " established three international cooperation mechanisms: the joint implement mechanism (JI), the clean development mechanism (CDM) and the emissions trading mechanism (ET), CDM is the only "flexible mechanisms" used in developing country, It is the important economic methods to achieve the low carbon economy and energy sustainable development. CDM is a win-win mechanism between the developing countries and the developed countries. Through the CDM project cooperation, the developed countries can fulfill its promise of carbon emissions reductions execution in the KP, by the way of providing "capital and technology" to the developing countries. Through the CDM, we can reduce the overall economic costs of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions also, then, it can promote the realization of global low carbon economy.
Chinese CDM market has a tremendous potential. From the view of CDM quantity and contribution to carbon emissions, the new energy CDM projects play a dominant role in China. At present, our "high carbon" energy structure hinder our low carbon economy realization, and the CDM implementation is helpful to absorb the additional funds and to promote technology transfer, then promoting our new energy industry development. So we should make full use of CDM and other related means, rapid new energy development, adjust the energy structure, which can guarantee the sustainable development of energy In term of the home and abroad scholars’current research about new energy CDM, we can find that great majority research lack comprehensiveness, and the quantitative study is also shallow too; In addition, the following mechanism and empirical research is less too, which include carbon emissions methodology and its applying, new energy CDM projects technology transfer mechanism and risk evaluation models etc.. Therefore, according to the investigation and sorting of relative materials, based on low carbon economy perspective, according to low carbon economy theory, industrial development theory, sustainable development theory, market externality theory, the theory of comparative advantage etc., the paper start the analysis about CDM operation mechanism and development and affect on new energy.
First, based on the carbon trading concept and background, analyzed the respective development status and their theoretical characteristics of three carbon trading mechanism CDM, JI and ET; Analyses the necessity of our participation in the carbon trading: only by the means of constructing the global carbon market,China can have the initiative in hands in entire carbon trading industry chain ,thus avoiding the CDM risk;Analyzed CDM’s connotation and its win-win characteristic: on one hand it can promote the sustainable development in developing countries, get "technology and capital", on the other hand it can help the developed countries achieve greenhouse gas emissions commitments; At last, analyzed the CDM scope, the relevant agency responsibilities and project development processes. The theoretical support will be provided for subsequent CDM project research
Secondly, this paper started the impact analysis of CDM on Chinese energy sustainable development and low carbon economy. First studied the obstacle restricting our energy development such as unreasonable "high carbon" energy structure, low energy efficiency and serious energy environment and security problem; Analyzed new energy contribution to energy structure improving, the carbon abatement, find out the obstacles to the new energy development; CDM is helpful for new energy technology transfer and financing; it has strong positive correlation to new energy development too ,and it is the important economic means for the development of new energy and our low carbon economy. At last the paper puts forward new energy development Suggestions.
Furthermore, the paper analyzed the status of new energy CDM projects and their development potential. Through the home and abroad comparison and analysis about CDM project status, we can get that China CDM project play great role in the world whatever quantity or carbon emissions contribution. Then, with hydropower, wind power and biomass power generation as new energy representation, the paper analyzed the situation of new energy CDM projects market and their development potential, contribution to carbon reduction; at last, the paper utilized SWOT, studied their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats of CDM project, found the main existing questions, and pointed out corresponding countermeasures about new energy developing.
Finally, based on the above analysis, this paper analyzed the following three key questions about new energy in international CDM project development cooperation:
1) The research on the nature of verification method principle for the carbon emission reduction and its application in international cooperation renewable energy CDM projects. The approach for CDM methodology research and additionality determination is taken with regards to applicability of methodology, analysis of baseline scenario, and assessment of additionality, especially concerning about those methodologies applied popularly for renewable projects. In such case a Shanxi hydropower project is considered as a reference example for methodology determination and validation procedures exposure, in which the carbon emission reduction has been accurately calculated as per an available combined methodology in valid version and the relevant tools.
2) The mechanism and empirical research of international technology transfer in CDM renewable energy field Firstly, the nature of technology transfer, the mechanism of international technology transfer, and technology transfer for CDM projects are analyzed; Secondly, the technology transfer in CDM is illuminated in different aspects including genres, modeling, and procedures; Finally, the game-negotiation modeling and bargaining modeling are both discussed particularly as in the process to accelerate the international technology transfer in CDM renewable energy project. The valid usage of the former modeling in negotiation and the availability of the latter modeling in international technology transfer are demonstrated by two CDM projects analysis regarding with a Jilin biomass power generation project and an Inner Mongolia wind farm project.
3)the research on constructing risk forecast and evaluation modeling in renewable CDM projects and empirical research analysis
According to the possible problems coming from different stages in CDM projects developing flows, the different risks during the whole process are summarized as seven types, such as registration risk, project construction risk, operation risk, and so on. The renewable energy CDM project risk forecast and evaluation modeling is established based on these risks analysis by Monte Carlo model and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. A successfully registered small scale hydropower plant is exemplified for the risk evaluation and the possible tragedies to avoid risks are also supplied for renewable CDM projects. The modeling above and empirical research afford the scientific applicability criteria for avoiding risks in this field.
As above all,the conclusion can be got as following:
1) our country has the great necessity to promote new energy development ,and CDM has played an active role in new energy development too. 2) CDM projects of new energy has great efficiency for energy conservation and emission reduction, but it had also trouble in development problems. 3)the priciple of the carbon emission reduction was analyzed ,based on the baseline methodology of new energy and and empirical demonstration research was done too. 4) new energy CDM project can promote technology transfer, especially promote advanced environmentally friendly technology transfer. 5) the risk of new energy CDM projects exists in their implementation process, but it can be tracked on and be evaluated. The above research has solved the main problems existing in new energy CDM project development process, it can be also applied to the entire CDM system ,which will ensure the new energy research of CDM project development more systematic, more maneuverability, feasibility and practicality. The innovation points of the paper is as following:
(1) keep the concept of sustainable development as instruction, on the view of the low carbon economy perspective, deeply and comprehensively research the new energy development, and the international CDM project operation mechanism etc. ,constructs the research framework and routes.
(2) for new energy development in the CDM promoting effect as the breakthrough point, probes into the development of new energy to CDM project, the influence mechanism and promotes the risk evaluation method.
(3) based on the international prevailing rules and unified baseline methodology of new energy ACM0002 , research the mathematical model of the CDM project emission contribution, and applied successfully to a hydropower project in shanxi reductions measuring.
(4) build the game model and bargaining model for new energy CDM international technology transfer projects, and put them applying and had the empirical analysis in CDM project of Jilin biomass power generation and Inner Mongolia wind power CDM project
(5) The renewable energy CDM project risk forecast and evaluation modeling is established by Monte Carlo model and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. A successfully registered small scale hydropower plant is exemplified for the risk evaluation, it also offers the scientific basis for avoiding the risk of CDM project development.
为应对全球气候变化,全球应对气候变化的国际制度框架《联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC)》和《京都议定书》分别签订,提出“到2050年要将大气中二氧化碳浓度控制在工业化之前水平的2倍以内”;《京都议定书》确立了联合履约机制(JI)、清洁发展机制(CDM)和排放交易机制(ET)三种国际合作机制,其中CDM是唯一涉及发展中国家的“灵活机制”,是实现低碳经济和能源可持续发展的重要经济手段。CDM能够促使发达国家通过提供“资金和技术”的方式与发展中国家开展项目合作,同时将项目实现的核证减排量(CERs)用于履行其在《议定书》中的承诺,是发展中国家与发达国家合作共赢的一种机制。通过CDM,可以实现全球降低温室气体减排成本的效果,促进各国低碳经济的实现。
我国CDM市场潜力巨大,从数量和对碳排放的贡献上看,新能源CDM项目占主导地位。当前,以“高碳”为主要特征的能源结构严重制约我国低碳经济的实现,而CDM的实施则有助于我国吸收额外的资金、促进技术转让,促进新能源产业发展。所以,我们应充分利用好CDM等相关国际经济合作手段,大力发展新能源,调整能源结构,保证能源可持续发展。
从国内外研究分析,我们不难发现目前学者对新能源CDM项目的研究,大多数缺乏成体系的综合性分析,定量研究少而浅。另外从低碳经济视角出发,对新能源CDM项目的碳排放方法学原理、国际合作技术转让机理以及风险评估模型的构建及实证展开研究的也较少。
因此,综合上述分析,本文在调查研究、整理资料的基础上,以低碳经济理论、产业发展理论、可持续发展理论、市场外部性理论、比较优势理论等为依据,基于低碳经济视角,针对CDM运行机理及其对新能源发展影响展开分析:
首先,从碳交易概念和产生背景出发,分析了CDM、JI、ET等三大碳交易机制各自发展状况、理论特点;分析了我国参与碳交易的必要性:中国只有构建全球性的碳市场,才能在整个碳交易产业链上掌握主动权,从而规避CDM项目的风险;分析了CDM内涵和特点和CDM的双赢性:它一方面可促进发展中国家可持续发展,获得“技术和资金”,另一方面它可协助发达国家实现温室气体减排承诺;最后分析了CDM范围、相关机构职责和项目开发流程,为后续开展CDM项目研究提供理论支持。
其次,分析了CDM对能源可持续发展和对低碳经济发展作用。研究了制约我国能源发展的障碍:如“高碳”能源结构不合理、能源效率低下、严重的能源环境与能源安全问题;探讨了我国新能源对改善能源结构、促进节能减排作用,CDM对新能源的发展有较强的相关性,CDM有利于新能源的技术转移和融资,是发展新能源、促进低碳经济实现的重要经济手段;最后提出有效推进我国新能源发展的建议。
再者,分析了我国新能源CDM项目发展现状和潜力。通过国内外CDM项目现状的对比分析,指出我国CDM项目的数量和对碳排放的贡献在国际上都处主导地位。接着以水电、风电以及生物质发电的CDM项目为代表,分析了我国新能源CDM项目的市场现状、减排贡献及发展潜力;本节最后运用SWOT分析法,深入研究了新能源CDM项目的优势、劣势、机遇、威胁,指出我国开发新能源CDM项目存在的主要问题,并提出相应对策。
最后,基于上述分析,着重分析了以下三个新能源CDM项目在国际合作开发中的关键问题:
1、国际合作开发中新能源CDM项目的碳排放核证方法原理及应用研究
针对CDM方法学和额外性判定问题,分析了碳排放基准线选择、额外性判定和考量、方法学的确定等,着重分析了新能源常用的方法学类型。最后以山西某水电CDM项目为例,运用统一基准线方法学对该项目的碳减排量进行了定量计算,为新能源CDM项目的方法学选择和核证过程提供参考。
2、对新能源领域CDM项目的国际技术转让机理及实证研究
首先,分析了技术转让内涵、国际技术转让和CDM项目国际技术转让问题;接着,从CDM项目技术转让类型、模式、流程三个角度详细介绍了CDM技术转让的机理;最后,着重研究了促进国际新能源CDM项目技术转让的模型——博弈谈判模型和讨价还价模型,并以吉林某生物质发电CDM项目和内蒙某风电CDM项目为例,论证了技术转让博弈模型在CDM国际合作技术转让谈判的作用,以及技术转让讨价还价模型在CDM国际合作技术转让中的适用性。
3、对新能源CDM项目的风险预测与评价模型构建的研究并实证分析
依据CDM项目开发流程中不同阶段可能遇到的问题,将CDM项目的风险总结归纳为注册风险、项目建设和运营风险等七种风险,在此基础上,利用蒙特卡洛模型和模糊综合评价方法,建立了新能源CDM项目风险预测和评价模型;并以某成功注册的小水电CDM项目为例,对新能源CDM项目的风险进行实例分析;最后针对新能源领域CDM项目存在的问题提出相应对策。以上模型构建和实证分析为规避新能源CDM项目开发过程中的风险提供了科学依据。
通过以上分析,本文得出以下结论:(1)我国发展新能源具有很大必要性,而CDM对促进我国新能源发展具有积极作用。(2)新能源CDM项目具有节能减排效益,但也存在开发问题。(3)从基准线方法学角度分析了新能源的常用的碳减排方法原理并加以实证。(4)新能源CDM项目可促进技术转让,尤其是促进先进的环境友好型技术的转让。(5)新能源CDM项目在具体实施过程中存在风险,但可进行跟踪评价。
上述研究成果解决了我国新能源CDM项目在国际合作开发中的主要问题,可借鉴到整个CDM系统中,使得对新能源CDM项目开发的研究更系统化,更具可操作性、可行性和实践性。本文创新点在于:
(1)以可持续发展理论为指导,从低碳经济视角对新能源发展、国际CDM项目合作运作机理等问题进行了全面深入的系统研究,构建了研究的整体框架和路线。
(2)以CDM对新能源发展的促进作用为切入点,深入探讨了CDM对新能源发展的促进作用、影响机理和风险评价方法。
(3)深入探讨了基于国际通行规则和统一基准线方法学ACM0002定量分析新能源CDM项目对减排贡献的数理模型,并成功地将该模型应用于陕西某水电项目减排量的测算。
(4)构建了新能源CDM国际技术转让项目的博弈模型和讨价还价模型,并以吉林某生物质发电CDM项目和内蒙某风电CDM项目为例进行实证分析,。
(5)构建了新能源CDM项目风险分析和预测的蒙特卡洛模型,并以四川某水电站CDM项目为例对新能源CDM项目的风险进行实例分析,为规避CDM项目的开发风险提供了科学依据。
The "low- carbon economy" is a common topic in world economy development, it is based on the following characteristics :"low energy consumption, low pollution, low emission”,its essence is to build a reasonable energy structure through reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions, and so as to achieve a " win-win " economy development pattern about the social economic development and ecological environment protection. Low-carbon economy is not only the theoretical basis of energy low-carbonization, but also the reflection of sustainable development, and it is also the main motive of new energy the development.
In response to the global climate change,“Kyoto Protocol " established three international cooperation mechanisms: the joint implement mechanism (JI), the clean development mechanism (CDM) and the emissions trading mechanism (ET), CDM is the only "flexible mechanisms" used in developing country, It is the important economic methods to achieve the low carbon economy and energy sustainable development. CDM is a win-win mechanism between the developing countries and the developed countries. Through the CDM project cooperation, the developed countries can fulfill its promise of carbon emissions reductions execution in the KP, by the way of providing "capital and technology" to the developing countries. Through the CDM, we can reduce the overall economic costs of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions also, then, it can promote the realization of global low carbon economy.
Chinese CDM market has a tremendous potential. From the view of CDM quantity and contribution to carbon emissions, the new energy CDM projects play a dominant role in China. At present, our "high carbon" energy structure hinder our low carbon economy realization, and the CDM implementation is helpful to absorb the additional funds and to promote technology transfer, then promoting our new energy industry development. So we should make full use of CDM and other related means, rapid new energy development, adjust the energy structure, which can guarantee the sustainable development of energy In term of the home and abroad scholars’current research about new energy CDM, we can find that great majority research lack comprehensiveness, and the quantitative study is also shallow too; In addition, the following mechanism and empirical research is less too, which include carbon emissions methodology and its applying, new energy CDM projects technology transfer mechanism and risk evaluation models etc.. Therefore, according to the investigation and sorting of relative materials, based on low carbon economy perspective, according to low carbon economy theory, industrial development theory, sustainable development theory, market externality theory, the theory of comparative advantage etc., the paper start the analysis about CDM operation mechanism and development and affect on new energy.
First, based on the carbon trading concept and background, analyzed the respective development status and their theoretical characteristics of three carbon trading mechanism CDM, JI and ET; Analyses the necessity of our participation in the carbon trading: only by the means of constructing the global carbon market,China can have the initiative in hands in entire carbon trading industry chain ,thus avoiding the CDM risk;Analyzed CDM’s connotation and its win-win characteristic: on one hand it can promote the sustainable development in developing countries, get "technology and capital", on the other hand it can help the developed countries achieve greenhouse gas emissions commitments; At last, analyzed the CDM scope, the relevant agency responsibilities and project development processes. The theoretical support will be provided for subsequent CDM project research
Secondly, this paper started the impact analysis of CDM on Chinese energy sustainable development and low carbon economy. First studied the obstacle restricting our energy development such as unreasonable "high carbon" energy structure, low energy efficiency and serious energy environment and security problem; Analyzed new energy contribution to energy structure improving, the carbon abatement, find out the obstacles to the new energy development; CDM is helpful for new energy technology transfer and financing; it has strong positive correlation to new energy development too ,and it is the important economic means for the development of new energy and our low carbon economy. At last the paper puts forward new energy development Suggestions.
Furthermore, the paper analyzed the status of new energy CDM projects and their development potential. Through the home and abroad comparison and analysis about CDM project status, we can get that China CDM project play great role in the world whatever quantity or carbon emissions contribution. Then, with hydropower, wind power and biomass power generation as new energy representation, the paper analyzed the situation of new energy CDM projects market and their development potential, contribution to carbon reduction; at last, the paper utilized SWOT, studied their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats of CDM project, found the main existing questions, and pointed out corresponding countermeasures about new energy developing.
Finally, based on the above analysis, this paper analyzed the following three key questions about new energy in international CDM project development cooperation:
1) The research on the nature of verification method principle for the carbon emission reduction and its application in international cooperation renewable energy CDM projects. The approach for CDM methodology research and additionality determination is taken with regards to applicability of methodology, analysis of baseline scenario, and assessment of additionality, especially concerning about those methodologies applied popularly for renewable projects. In such case a Shanxi hydropower project is considered as a reference example for methodology determination and validation procedures exposure, in which the carbon emission reduction has been accurately calculated as per an available combined methodology in valid version and the relevant tools.
2) The mechanism and empirical research of international technology transfer in CDM renewable energy field Firstly, the nature of technology transfer, the mechanism of international technology transfer, and technology transfer for CDM projects are analyzed; Secondly, the technology transfer in CDM is illuminated in different aspects including genres, modeling, and procedures; Finally, the game-negotiation modeling and bargaining modeling are both discussed particularly as in the process to accelerate the international technology transfer in CDM renewable energy project. The valid usage of the former modeling in negotiation and the availability of the latter modeling in international technology transfer are demonstrated by two CDM projects analysis regarding with a Jilin biomass power generation project and an Inner Mongolia wind farm project.
3)the research on constructing risk forecast and evaluation modeling in renewable CDM projects and empirical research analysis
According to the possible problems coming from different stages in CDM projects developing flows, the different risks during the whole process are summarized as seven types, such as registration risk, project construction risk, operation risk, and so on. The renewable energy CDM project risk forecast and evaluation modeling is established based on these risks analysis by Monte Carlo model and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. A successfully registered small scale hydropower plant is exemplified for the risk evaluation and the possible tragedies to avoid risks are also supplied for renewable CDM projects. The modeling above and empirical research afford the scientific applicability criteria for avoiding risks in this field.
As above all,the conclusion can be got as following:
1) our country has the great necessity to promote new energy development ,and CDM has played an active role in new energy development too. 2) CDM projects of new energy has great efficiency for energy conservation and emission reduction, but it had also trouble in development problems. 3)the priciple of the carbon emission reduction was analyzed ,based on the baseline methodology of new energy and and empirical demonstration research was done too. 4) new energy CDM project can promote technology transfer, especially promote advanced environmentally friendly technology transfer. 5) the risk of new energy CDM projects exists in their implementation process, but it can be tracked on and be evaluated. The above research has solved the main problems existing in new energy CDM project development process, it can be also applied to the entire CDM system ,which will ensure the new energy research of CDM project development more systematic, more maneuverability, feasibility and practicality. The innovation points of the paper is as following:
(1) keep the concept of sustainable development as instruction, on the view of the low carbon economy perspective, deeply and comprehensively research the new energy development, and the international CDM project operation mechanism etc. ,constructs the research framework and routes.
(2) for new energy development in the CDM promoting effect as the breakthrough point, probes into the development of new energy to CDM project, the influence mechanism and promotes the risk evaluation method.
(3) based on the international prevailing rules and unified baseline methodology of new energy ACM0002 , research the mathematical model of the CDM project emission contribution, and applied successfully to a hydropower project in shanxi reductions measuring.
(4) build the game model and bargaining model for new energy CDM international technology transfer projects, and put them applying and had the empirical analysis in CDM project of Jilin biomass power generation and Inner Mongolia wind power CDM project
(5) The renewable energy CDM project risk forecast and evaluation modeling is established by Monte Carlo model and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. A successfully registered small scale hydropower plant is exemplified for the risk evaluation, it also offers the scientific basis for avoiding the risk of CDM project development.
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