中国农业保险制度建设研究
|
摘要
农业保险是农业风险管理的重要手段,我国国情放大了农业保险的风险管理功能。实践中,农业保险表现出了促进农业产业化进程,引导农业产业结构调整,推动农业新技术推广与应用,提高农业经营主体信用地位等作用,这使研究和实施农业保险的意义更加凸现。
我国理论界从农业保险体系、农业保险体制、农业保险政策、农业保险问题、农业保险模式、农业保险形式等多个侧重点对农业保险进行了较多的关注,在学习同仁和前辈研究成果的基础上,我们切入了农业保险制度建设这一视角。
农业保险制度建设是一个系统工程。农业保险制度作为一个学术概念,它有自己的理论规范,包含了制度对象、制度理念、制度规则、制度载体四大要素,但农业保险制度建设的理论设计需要解决实际问题,需要考虑到制度设计过渡到制度实施的成本。因此,对农业保险制度建设的理论设计离不开对我国农业保险发展历史的研究,离不开对当前农业保险实践的具体认识,离不开对基本国情的分析,也离不开对农业保险制度本身的规范理解。
在对农业保险制度进行了历史的、社会的、具体的,规范的考察和分析后,论文形成了几点结论:(1)基于农业保险是准公共物品的理解,农业保险制度是政策支持性制度,财政补贴是国家支持农业保险的重要措施;(2)历史分析表明:法律制度缺失、政府主导和推动职能缺失、风险分散机制缺失、经营主体缺失、农业保险在农业保护制度中缺失是中国农业保险发展缓慢的主要原因;(3)中国农业保险的地方实践表明:多形式、多层次、多主体是中国农业保险新实践的重要特征,地方属性是中国农业保险制度建设的一个不可缺少的内容;(4)我国农业风险特点、我国保险业的快速发展、农业保险功能与作用的延伸、农民对农业保险的需求特征、农业生产特点、粮食作物经济特征、国家三农政策、农产品国际贸易规则、地方政府的财政实力和行为特点等九个方面丰富了农业保险制度中国化的内容,研究这些特征将产生中国农业保险制度的诸多亮点。
对农业保险制度历史的、社会的、具体的、规范的分析,揭示了我国农业保险制度的概念属性、理论基础、实践依据、背景特征,它们界定了我国农业保险制度建设的四个重点内容:农业保险的法律法规、国家财税政策支持、巨灾风险的分散与预防、具有地方属性的中国农业保险制度。
The agricultural insurance is an important means of the agricultural risk management, the situation of our country has enlarged the risk management function of the agricultural insurance. In practice, the promotion that the agricultural insurance brings to the agricultural industrialization , the leading that the agricultural insurance brings to the adjustment of the agricultural industry structure, the push that the agricultural insurance brings to the expansion and application of the new agricultural techniques, and the improvement that the agricultural insurance brings to the credit position of the agricultural producer and proprietor , have made the meaning of researching and carrying out the agricultural insurance more obvious.
Chinese scholar have research the agricultural insurance from different visual angle. for example, the agricultural insurance system, the agricultural insurance policy, the agricultural insurance problem, the agricultural insurance mode, the agricultural insurance form and the agricultural insurance system...etc..On the basis of study the former research fruit, the visual angle of this dissertation research is construction of agricultural insurance system.
The construction of agricultural insurance institution is a system engineering. As a academic conception, agricultural insurance system bear with its theory criterion, namely ,the agricultural insurance system includes four factors: object、thought、rule and carrier. But the theory plan of construction of agricultural insurance system should can resolve actual problem, consider the cost of system theory plan to system theory implement. So the theory plan of construction of agricultural insurance system must base on the study of history of agricultural insurance, on the understand of agricultural insurance practice, on the analysis of the situation of our country, on the comprehend of criterion of agricultural insurance system.
After the historical, social, idiographic, normative review and analysis, the basic conclusions of the related research that we have got are :(1)Based on the comprehension that the agricultural insurance is the semi-public product, the agricultural insurance system is a public finance supported system;(2)The lack of law system, the lack of government function
我国理论界从农业保险体系、农业保险体制、农业保险政策、农业保险问题、农业保险模式、农业保险形式等多个侧重点对农业保险进行了较多的关注,在学习同仁和前辈研究成果的基础上,我们切入了农业保险制度建设这一视角。
农业保险制度建设是一个系统工程。农业保险制度作为一个学术概念,它有自己的理论规范,包含了制度对象、制度理念、制度规则、制度载体四大要素,但农业保险制度建设的理论设计需要解决实际问题,需要考虑到制度设计过渡到制度实施的成本。因此,对农业保险制度建设的理论设计离不开对我国农业保险发展历史的研究,离不开对当前农业保险实践的具体认识,离不开对基本国情的分析,也离不开对农业保险制度本身的规范理解。
在对农业保险制度进行了历史的、社会的、具体的,规范的考察和分析后,论文形成了几点结论:(1)基于农业保险是准公共物品的理解,农业保险制度是政策支持性制度,财政补贴是国家支持农业保险的重要措施;(2)历史分析表明:法律制度缺失、政府主导和推动职能缺失、风险分散机制缺失、经营主体缺失、农业保险在农业保护制度中缺失是中国农业保险发展缓慢的主要原因;(3)中国农业保险的地方实践表明:多形式、多层次、多主体是中国农业保险新实践的重要特征,地方属性是中国农业保险制度建设的一个不可缺少的内容;(4)我国农业风险特点、我国保险业的快速发展、农业保险功能与作用的延伸、农民对农业保险的需求特征、农业生产特点、粮食作物经济特征、国家三农政策、农产品国际贸易规则、地方政府的财政实力和行为特点等九个方面丰富了农业保险制度中国化的内容,研究这些特征将产生中国农业保险制度的诸多亮点。
对农业保险制度历史的、社会的、具体的、规范的分析,揭示了我国农业保险制度的概念属性、理论基础、实践依据、背景特征,它们界定了我国农业保险制度建设的四个重点内容:农业保险的法律法规、国家财税政策支持、巨灾风险的分散与预防、具有地方属性的中国农业保险制度。
The agricultural insurance is an important means of the agricultural risk management, the situation of our country has enlarged the risk management function of the agricultural insurance. In practice, the promotion that the agricultural insurance brings to the agricultural industrialization , the leading that the agricultural insurance brings to the adjustment of the agricultural industry structure, the push that the agricultural insurance brings to the expansion and application of the new agricultural techniques, and the improvement that the agricultural insurance brings to the credit position of the agricultural producer and proprietor , have made the meaning of researching and carrying out the agricultural insurance more obvious.
Chinese scholar have research the agricultural insurance from different visual angle. for example, the agricultural insurance system, the agricultural insurance policy, the agricultural insurance problem, the agricultural insurance mode, the agricultural insurance form and the agricultural insurance system...etc..On the basis of study the former research fruit, the visual angle of this dissertation research is construction of agricultural insurance system.
The construction of agricultural insurance institution is a system engineering. As a academic conception, agricultural insurance system bear with its theory criterion, namely ,the agricultural insurance system includes four factors: object、thought、rule and carrier. But the theory plan of construction of agricultural insurance system should can resolve actual problem, consider the cost of system theory plan to system theory implement. So the theory plan of construction of agricultural insurance system must base on the study of history of agricultural insurance, on the understand of agricultural insurance practice, on the analysis of the situation of our country, on the comprehend of criterion of agricultural insurance system.
After the historical, social, idiographic, normative review and analysis, the basic conclusions of the related research that we have got are :(1)Based on the comprehension that the agricultural insurance is the semi-public product, the agricultural insurance system is a public finance supported system;(2)The lack of law system, the lack of government function
引文
(1) 刘京生著. 中国农村保险制度论纲[M]. 中国社会科学出版社, 2000 年 8 月第 1 版
(2) 李军. Francis Tuan. 农业风险管理和政府的作用[M]. 北京:中国金融出版社. 2004年 12 月年 5 月第一版。
(3) 任素梅. 农业保险概论[M]. 北京:中国农业出版社,1995 年版
(4) 庹国柱,李军. 国外农业保险:实践、研究和法规[M]. 西安:陕西人民出版社,1997
(5) 庹国柱,李军. 农业保险[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2005 年 1 月第 1 版
(6) 庹国柱,王国军. 中国农业保险与农村社会保障制度研究[M]. 首都经贸大学出版社. 2002
(7) 庹国柱 C. F. Fremingham. 农业保险:理论、经验与问题[M]. 北京:中国农业出版社,1995 年 2 月第一版。
(8) 韦森. 经济学与哲学:制度分析的哲学基础[M].上海人民出版社,2005
(9) 张宇燕. 经济发展与制度选择[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1992
(10) 白安义,张顺喜. 构建适合我国国情的农业保险组织形式[J]. 农业经济问题, 2004 08
(11)陈盛伟,史建民. 农村税费改革——山东个案[J]. 改革,2005,(08):66-71.
(12)陈盛伟,史建民. 省域政策性农业保险模式的理论思考 山东农业大学学报(社科版) [J],2006,(02)
(13) 陈盛伟,岳书铭. 乡镇政府谋利性政权代理人行为分析. 中国行政管理,2006.(03):92-94.
(14)陈盛伟,薛兴利. 林业标准化促进林业保险的机理分析. 林业经济问题,2006,(02):138-141.
(15)陈盛伟. 区域性奶牛保险产品研究——以泰安奶牛保险发展为例.中国保险,2006,
(03):41-45
(16)陈盛伟. 山东省农业保险业务萎缩原因分析及政策构思. 山东经济,2004,(05):110-112.
(17)陈盛伟,韩晓翠. 山东省落实“一减三补”政策的调查与思考. 山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2005,(04): 96-102.
(18)常保平等. 关于成立我国农业保险公司的研究,金融研究,1997.2
(19)陈璐. 我国农业保险业务萎缩的经济学分析. 农业经济问题,2004 ,11
(20)陈年红. 我国农业自然灾害和农业保险问题研究. 农业经济问题, 1996 08
(21)陈淑云. 关于中国农业保险问题的思考. 管理科学文摘, 1995 10
(22)陈思迅, 陈 信. 关于我国农业保险公司的构建设想[J. 金融与经济, 1997,11.
(23)成福云. 美、加、日、菲农业保险立法简介. 中国减灾, 2002 ,02
(24)丁少群,庹国柱. 我国农业保险的试验与评价. 调研世界, 1997, 05
(25) 丁少群,庹国柱.国外农业保险发展模式及扶持政策. 世界农业, 1997, 08
(26)丁学东. 西班牙农业保险政策及对我们的启示[J]. 农业经济问题,2005,08.
(27)段家喜. 农业保险制度面临两难选择[N]. 中国保险报, 2004 年 3 月 25 日)
(28)段昆. 美国农业保险制度及其对我国农业保险发展的启示. 中国软科学,2002 03
(29)冯文丽. 美、日农业保险制度对我国农险模式选择的启示. 农村经济, 2002 12
(30)段学慧. 政府还是市场——论我国农业保险的出路[J]. 重庆师范大学学报,2004,01
(31)冯文丽,苏晓鹏. 美国农业保险制度变迁的经济学分析. 金融教学与研究,2003,01
(32)冯文丽. 加快建立我国的农业保险体系. 经济与管理, 2003, 02
(33)顾江. 我国农业保险的问题及对策探讨. 农业经济问题, 2000,12
(34)郭永利. 关于我国农村保险现状、问题与出路的思考. 农业经济问题,1991,10
(35)郭永利. 论农业保险的政策性及其发展空间. 农业经济问题,1999,08
(36) 何文彬. 新疆生产建设兵团保险市场现状分析[J]. 新疆财经学院学报,2002,03.
(37)胡秋明. 论我国农业保险发展制度创新. 财经科学,2005,05.
(38)胡亦琴. 论农业保险制度的基本框架与路径选择. 农业经济问题, 2003,10
(39)蒋永辉. 我国农业保险的经营模式. 上海保险, 1994,03
(40)金昌军 于辉. 高垦区农业互助保险偿付能力. 农场经济管理, 2003,04
(41)黎淑英.日本的农业保险制度[J]. 保险研究, 1994,(2):59-62.
(42)刘金鼎. 对内乡县农村互助保险情况的调查与思考. 中国保险, 1997,01
(43)刘云. 日本农业损失的保险补偿体系. 黑龙江农业科学, 2000,06
(44)刘祖疆等. 兵团农业保险存在的问题及对策. 新疆农垦经济, 1999,03
(45)龙春霞等.论农业保险体系中存在的问题及对策. 河北农业大学学报, 2003,01
(46)龙文军 吴良. 美国农业保险的发展历程和经验. 世界农业, 2002,03
(47)龙文军.法国农业保险制度及经验. 世界农业, 2003,05
(48)卢骅. 辽宁省农用机动车保险现状及对策. 农村机械化, 1998,12
(49)马育红.论我国农业保险制度的完善与发展. 开发研究, 2003,05
(50)皮曙初. 何建锋.关于中国农业保险问题的思考. 农业经济问题, 1994,08
(51)秦征. 兵团保险业走向大市场的思考[J]. 新疆农垦科技,1996,04
(52)任巧巧. 我国应尽快建立农业保险体系. 保险研究, 2002, 04
(53)陕西省课题组. 试论农业保险体制与效益[J]. 中国保险, 1995, 06.
(54)申曙光. 农业保险体制改革的总体构想. 农业现代化研究,1994, 03.
(55)沈达尊. 论我国农业保险体制与从业人员培养. 中国农村经济,1994, 06.
(56)沈思玮. 日本保险业的发展概况. 保险研究, 1997, 08
(57)施志新. 兵团农业保险的践与探索. 新疆农垦经济, 2002,01
(58) 史建民. 面对 WTO 完善我国农业灾害补偿制度势在必行. 调研世界, 2002 , 07.
(59)孙立明.农业保险的发展实践与理论反思—世界经验的比较与启示.经济科学,2003,04
(60)孙文军. 中国农业保险模式的比较与选择. 理论与改革, 2000,01
(61)孙晓洁等. 对黑龙江垦区农业保险问题的思考. 农场经济管理, 1999,03
(62)孙晓洁等. 我国农业保险问题的若干思考[J]. 黑龙江八一农垦大学学报, 1998,06.
(63)庹国柱 李军 我国农业保险试验的成就、矛盾及出路. 农业经济问题, 2003 ,09.
(64)庹国柱. 农业保险体制改革模式选择. 中国农村经济,1997,06
(65)王国军,叶波. 农业保险:一个沉甸甸的话题. 经济论坛,1996,02.
(66) 王国敏. 市场经济国家的农业保险制度以及对我国的启示. 经济问题探索, 1998,12
(67)王和,皮立波. 论发展我国政策性农业保险的策略. 保险研究,2004,02.
(68)王强. 农业保险体制改革座谈会纪要. 中国改革,1995, 09.
(69)王通,陆永汉. 江苏省农业保险发展. 保险研究, 2005 ,05.
(70)王亚军. 俄罗斯农业保险改革之我见 . 保险研究, 1999,02
(71)王延辉,赵仕平. 新疆农业保险市场调查报告[J]. 保险研究,2002,05.
(72)谢家智. 农业保险区域化发展问题研究. 农业现代化研究, 2004,01
(73)谢家智. 蒲林昌. 政府诱导型农业保险发展模式研究. 保险研究,2003,11
(74)谢家智. 农业保险区域化发展问题研究. 农业现代化研究,2004,01.
(75)辛欣. 国外农业保险的政策措施及经验. 上海保险, 1996,01
(76) 邢骊. 新疆兵团农业保险发展的实证分析[J]. 石河子大学学报,2003, 02.
(77)熊存开. 国外农业风险管理研究 . 农业经济问题,1994.01
(78)徐桂红,陈珂. 农业保险发展模式研究. 农业经济, 2003,02
(79) 许飞琼. 论我国的农业灾害损失与农业政策保险. 中国软科学,2002, 09.
(80)杨东升. 试论我国农业保险的经营模式. 金融教学与研究,1997,04.
(81)杨生斌. 论中国农村保险组织制度安排.陕西财经学院学报,1994,05.
(82) 姚海, 赵锦城. 合作农业保险:我国农业保险的理性选择. 农业经济问题, 2004 09
(83) 叶月明. 陆建明. 对我国农业灾害损失补偿机制的再认识. 经济评论,1997, 04.
(84)虞锡君. 农业保险与农业产业化互动机制探析. 农业经济问题,2005,08.
(85)张国海. 发展我国农业保险,必须解决十个问题,《金融研究》,1997.1
(86)张时霖. 美国农业保险制度. 世界农业, 1999 11
(87)张跃华 顾海英. 上海农业保险状况分析与对策探讨. 上海农村经济, 2003 11
(88)张跃华,顾海英,万皓. 新疆建设兵团农业保险调查——对农业保险商业性保险公司代理模式的分析[J]. 新疆大学学报(社会科学版), 2005,02
(89)张跃华,顾海英. 准公共品、外部性与农业保险的性质——对农业保险政策性补贴理论的探讨. 中国软科学,2004,09.
(90)张跃华等. 农业保险需求不足效用层面的一个解释及实证研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2005,04.
(91)赵仕平. 谈新疆农业保险的发展思路. 新疆金融, 2003, 01.
(92)中国保监会海南监管局. 关于海南省农业保险的调查与思考. 海南金融,2004 03.
(93)钟玉林. 美国农业保险体系借鉴. 浙江金融,2000, 12.
(94) 朱淑芳,赖景生. 建立中国的农业保险体制. 农业经济问题,1994, 05.
(95) 左清泉. 日本的农业保险——赴日归来的思考[J]. 山东农业(农村经济版), 1994,05.
(96) Ahsan, S.M., Ali, A. and Kurian, K. Toward a theory of agricultural insurance [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1982, 64: 520-529.
(97) Andersen, Torben G and Tim Bollerslev. Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models do Provide Accurate Forecasts [J], International Economic Review, 1998, 39: 885 一905.
(98) Antle, J.M. and C.C. Crissman. Risk, efficiency, and the adoption of modern crop varieties: Evidence from the Philippines [J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1990, 38:517-537.
(99) Antle, J.M. Econometric estimation of producers' risk attitudes [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1987, 69: 509-22.
(100) Antle, J.M. Nonstructural risk attitude estimation [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1989, 71:74-84.
(101) Arrow, K. The role of securities in the optimal allocation of risk bearing [J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1964, 31:91-96.
(102) Atwood, J. A., A. E. Baquet, and M. J. Watts. Rating procedures for IP expansion to fall seeded wheat. Unpub. staff paper, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University, Bozeman, September 1996.
(103) Azam, J. P. The impact of floods on the adoption rate of high-yielding rice varieties in Bangladesh[J]。Agricultural Economics, 1996, 13: 179-189.
(104) Baillie, Richard T. and Robert J. Myers. Bivariate Garch Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1991, 6 (2): 109 一 I 24.
(105) Beller, Kenneth and John R. Nofsinger. On Stock Return Seasonality and Conditional Heteroscedasticity[J].The Journal of Financial Research, 1998, 21 (2): 229 一 246.
(106) Bengt Holmstrom. (1979). Moral Hazard and Observability. Bell Journal of Economics 10: 74~91
(107) Bingfan Ke, and H. Holly Wang. An Assessment of Risk Management Strategies for Grain Growers in the Pacific Northwest [J]. Agricultural Finance Review, 2002,62:117-133.
(108) Bollerslev, Tim. A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model of Speculative Prices and Rates of Return [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987, 69: 542-547.
(109) Botts, R.R. and J. N. Boles. Use of Normal-Curve Theory in Crop Insurance Ratemaking [J]. J.Farm Econ, 1958, 40: 733-740.
(110) Box, G. and D. Pierce. Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Autoregressive Moving Average Time Series Models[J],Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1970, 65: 1509-1526.
(111) Bruce A. Babcock, and David A. Hennessy. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance." American. Journal of Agricultural. Economics. 78 (May 1996): 416-427.
(112) Bruce A. Babcock, Chad E. Hart, and Dermot J. Hayes. Crop Insurance Rates and the Laws of Probability. Working Paper 02-WP 298, April 2002.
(113) Buccola, S. Testing for Non-Normality in Farm Net Returns [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1986, 68: 334-343.
(114) Chad E. Hart and Bruce A. Babcock. Rankings of Risk Management Strategies Combining Crop Insurance Products and Marketing Positions. Working Paper 01-WP 267, February 2001.
(115) Chambers, Insurability and moral hazard in agricultural insurance markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1989. 71. 3, 604-616.
(116) Cornew, Ronald W., Donald E. Town, and Lawrence D. Crowson. Stable Distributions,Futures Prices, and the Measurement of Trading Performance: Response [J]. Journal of Futures Markets, 1984,4 (4): 531-557.
(117) Darrell L. Hueth. Economics of Agriculture Crop Insurance. Theory and Evidence [M]. Boston/Dordrencht/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers 1994.
(118) Davis, S. B., T J. Price, M. E. Wetzstein, and M. W. Rieger. Reducing yield variation in peach orchards by geographic scattering [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1997, 79(4): 1119-1126.
(119) Designs on Farmer Participation and Welfare [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1998, 80:806-820.
(120) Duan, J. C. The GARCH Option Pricing Model [J]. Mathematical Finance, 1995, 5: 13-32.
(121) E. Parzen. On estimation of a probability density function and mode [J]. Ann. Math. Statistic, 1962,Vo1.33: 1065-1076. Economics, 2000,25:411-431.
(122) European Commission Working Document , Risks Managment Tool for EU Agriculture With a special focus on insurance ,January 2001.
(123) Friedman, M. & L. J. Savage (1948), The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 56, pp 279-304, August 1948
(124) Pratt, J. (1964). Risk Aversion In The Small And In The Large. Econometrica 32: 132-136. Reprinted in Diamond and Rothschild
(125) Goodwin, B. K. Premium rate determination in the Federal Crop Insurance Program: What do averages have to say about risk? [J]. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 1994, 19(2):382-395.
(126) Goodwin, Barry K., Matthew C. Roberts, and Keith H. Coble. Measurement of Price Risk in Revenue Insurance: Implications of Distributional Assumptions [J]. Journal of Agricultural andResource Economics, 2000, 25 (1): 195-214.
(127) Goodwin, BarryK and Vincent H.Smith. The Economics of Crop Insurance and Disaster Aid [M].Washington,DC: The AEI Press,1995.
(128) Hauser, R.J., P Garcia and Tumblin. Basis Expectations and Soybean Hedging Effectiveness [J]. North Central Journal of American cultural Economics, 1990, 12: 125-136.
(129) Hazell,Peter,and AlbertoValdes.Crop Insurance for Agricultural Development: Issues and Experience. Baltimore [M].The John Hopkins University Press, 2000.
(130) Horowitz, J.K., and E. Lichtenberg. Insurance, Moral Hazard, and Chemical Use in Agriculture [J]. Amer. J. Agr. Econ, 1993, 75: 926-935.
(131) Hull, J.C. Options, Futures and Other Derivative Securities [M]. 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ Prentice-Hall Inc, 1993.
(132) Jean-Paul Chavas and Matthew T. Holt. Acreage Decisions Under Risk: The Case of Corn and Soybeans [J]. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 1990, August: 529-538.
(133) Jeffrey M. Wooldridge. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (Chinese version) [M] Beijing: China People's University Press, 2003.
(134) Johnson, M.E. and A. Tenenbein. A Bivariate Distribution Family with Specified Marginals [J]. Journal of American Statistical Association, 1981, 76: 198-201.
(135) Joseph W. Glauber & Keith J. Collins. (2002). Crop Insurance, Disaster Assistance, and the Role of the Federal Government in Providing Catastrophic Risk Protection [J]. Agricultural Finance Review, Fall 2002, 82-103
(136) Judd, Kenneth L. Numerical Methods in Economics [M]. MIT Press:Cambridge, MA, 1998.
(137) JunJie Wu. Crop Insurance, Acreage Decisions, and Nonpoint-source Pollution [J]. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 1999, 81:305-320.
(138) Just, R. E., L. Calvin, and J. Quiggin. “Adverse Selection in Crop Insurance.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 81(November 1999): 834--49.
(139) Kaylen M.S., and S.S.Koroma. Trend, Weather Variables, and the distribution of U.S. Corn Yields [J]. Rev. Agr. Econ, 1991, 13:249-258.
(140) King, R.P., J.R. Black, RJ. Benson, and PA. Pavkov. The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator Microcomputer Program [J]. Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1988, 20:165-71.
(141) King, RP. and G.E. Oamek. (1983) Risk Management by Colorado Dryland Wheat Farmers and the Elimination of Disaster Assistance Programs. Amer. J. Air. Econ. 65 (May): 247-55.
(142) Kmenta, J. Elements of Econometrics [M]. 2nd ed. New York: Macmillan, 1986.
(143) Knight, T.O., & K.H. Coble. (1997). Survey of U.S. Multiple Peril Crop Insurace Literature Since 1980 [J], Review of Agricultural Economics (spring summer [19]) :128-156
(144) Law, Averill M. and W David Kelton. Simulation Modeling and Analysis [M]. McGraw-Hill: New Tork 1982.
(145) Lemieux, C.M., J. W. Richardson & C.J. Nixon. (1982). Federal Crop Insurance vs. ASCS Disaster Assistance for Texas High Plains Cotton Producers: An Application of Whole Farm Simulation. West. J. Agr. Econ. 7(December):141-53.
(146) Maddala, GS. Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics [M], Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983.
(147) Mario Miranda and DmitryV.vedenov, Innovations in Agricultural and Natural Disaster insurance[J]. American Journal Agricultural Economics, August 2001.
(148) Menz, K.M. and PPardey. Technology and U.S. Corn Yields: Plateaus and Price Responsiveness [J]. Amer.J.Agr.Econ, 1983,65: 558-562.
(149) Miller, S. E., K. H. Kahl, and P J. Rathwell. Revenue insurance for Georgia and South Carolina peaches [J]. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2000, 32(1): 123-132.
(150) Miranda, M.J., and J. W. Glauber. Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1997,79:206-215.
(151) Miranda,M.J.Area-Yield Crop Insurance Reconsidered. American Journal of Agricultural Economics ,73 (1991)
(152) Nelson C, Loehman E. 1984. Further toward a theory of agricultural insurance. Staff paper.,84 一 17. Purdue University, West Layafette, Indiana, 26.
(153) Nelson, C. and Loehman, E. Further toward a theory of agricultural insurance [J). American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1987, 69(3): 523-531.
(154) P. K. Ray, Agricultural Insurance, theory and Practice and Application to Developing Countries 2nd Edition, Pergacnon Press, 1982
(155) Patrick GF, Lloyd AG, Cary JW. 1985. Crop and rainfall insurance: some results from the Victorian mallee. Staff paper, 85 一 14. Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana.
(156) Peter Hazell , Carlos Pomareda , Alberto Valdes.Crop Insurance Agriculture development[M].Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986
(157) Pramod K. Mishra. Agriculture Risk,lnsurance and Income:A Study of the Impact and Design ofIndia' s Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme[M]. Aldershot: Avebury, 1996.
(158) Review of Agricultural Economics, 1997, 19(1): 128-156.
(159) Robert G. Chambers. Insurability and Moral Hazard in Agricultural Insurance Markets [J). Amer. J. Agr. Econ, 1989, August: 604-616.
(160) Rosenzweig M. R.,1988. Risk, implicit contracts and the family in rural areas of low 一income countries. Economics Journal,98:1148-1170.
(161) Schacht,H.,1990. Sunflower snafu could hurt crop insurance program. San Francisco Chronicle, May 15.
(162) Scott M. Swinton and Robert P King. Evaluating Robust Regression Techniques for Detrending Crop Yield Data with Nonnormal Errors (J). American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1991, 73 (May): 446-451.
(163) Serra, T., B. K. Goodwin, and A. M. Featherstone. (2003), Modeling Changes in the U.S. Demand for Crop Insurance during the 1990s. Agricultural Finance Review, 63(2): 109-125
(164) Statistics Approach,The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2003, 70: 113-126.
(165) Stephen E. Miller, Kandice H. Kahl, and P James Rathwell. Evaluation of Crop Insurance Premium Rates for Georgia and South Carolina Peaches [J]. Journal of Agribusinessl, 2000, 8(3): 303-317.
(166) Taylor, C. Robert. A Flexible Method for Empirically Estimating Probability Functions.WesternJournal of Agricultural Economics, 1984, 9: 61-76.
(167) Terence J. Centner & Michael E. Wetzstein (1987). Reducing Moral Hazard Associated With Implied Warranties of Animal Health, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 69: 143-150
(168) Tong, Y The Multivariate Normal Distribution [M]. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1990.
(169) U. S. Congress, Commission for the Improvement of the Federal Crop Insurance Program ,1989. Recommendations and findings to improve the Federal crop insurance program. Principal report,Washing-ton, DC, 240
(170) U.S. General Accounting Office, 1987. Crop insurance, overpayment of claims by private companies costs the government millions. Briefing report to congressional requesters.Washington, DC,72.
(171) Von Neumann, J and O. Morgenstern. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press.
(172) Walker TS, Jodha NS,1986. How small farm households adapt to risk. In: Crop insurance for agricul-tural development:issues and experience. Johns Hopkins University Press.
(173) Wright B. D. and J. A. Hewitt,1994. All 一 risk Crop insurance:Lessons from Theory and Experience.Economics of Agricultural Crop Insurance, Edited by D. L. Hueth and W. H. Furtan, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
(174) Wright, B.D., & J.D. Hewitt. (1990). All Risk Crop Insurance: Lessons From Theory and Experience. Giannini Foundation, California Agricultural Experiment Station, Berkeley, April.
(175) Zering, K.D., C.O. McCorkle, and C. V. Moore (1987). The Utility of Multiple Peril Crop Insurance for Irrigated, Multiple-Crop Agriculture. West. J. Agr. Econ. 12 (July)
(2) 李军. Francis Tuan. 农业风险管理和政府的作用[M]. 北京:中国金融出版社. 2004年 12 月年 5 月第一版。
(3) 任素梅. 农业保险概论[M]. 北京:中国农业出版社,1995 年版
(4) 庹国柱,李军. 国外农业保险:实践、研究和法规[M]. 西安:陕西人民出版社,1997
(5) 庹国柱,李军. 农业保险[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2005 年 1 月第 1 版
(6) 庹国柱,王国军. 中国农业保险与农村社会保障制度研究[M]. 首都经贸大学出版社. 2002
(7) 庹国柱 C. F. Fremingham. 农业保险:理论、经验与问题[M]. 北京:中国农业出版社,1995 年 2 月第一版。
(8) 韦森. 经济学与哲学:制度分析的哲学基础[M].上海人民出版社,2005
(9) 张宇燕. 经济发展与制度选择[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1992
(10) 白安义,张顺喜. 构建适合我国国情的农业保险组织形式[J]. 农业经济问题, 2004 08
(11)陈盛伟,史建民. 农村税费改革——山东个案[J]. 改革,2005,(08):66-71.
(12)陈盛伟,史建民. 省域政策性农业保险模式的理论思考 山东农业大学学报(社科版) [J],2006,(02)
(13) 陈盛伟,岳书铭. 乡镇政府谋利性政权代理人行为分析. 中国行政管理,2006.(03):92-94.
(14)陈盛伟,薛兴利. 林业标准化促进林业保险的机理分析. 林业经济问题,2006,(02):138-141.
(15)陈盛伟. 区域性奶牛保险产品研究——以泰安奶牛保险发展为例.中国保险,2006,
(03):41-45
(16)陈盛伟. 山东省农业保险业务萎缩原因分析及政策构思. 山东经济,2004,(05):110-112.
(17)陈盛伟,韩晓翠. 山东省落实“一减三补”政策的调查与思考. 山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2005,(04): 96-102.
(18)常保平等. 关于成立我国农业保险公司的研究,金融研究,1997.2
(19)陈璐. 我国农业保险业务萎缩的经济学分析. 农业经济问题,2004 ,11
(20)陈年红. 我国农业自然灾害和农业保险问题研究. 农业经济问题, 1996 08
(21)陈淑云. 关于中国农业保险问题的思考. 管理科学文摘, 1995 10
(22)陈思迅, 陈 信. 关于我国农业保险公司的构建设想[J. 金融与经济, 1997,11.
(23)成福云. 美、加、日、菲农业保险立法简介. 中国减灾, 2002 ,02
(24)丁少群,庹国柱. 我国农业保险的试验与评价. 调研世界, 1997, 05
(25) 丁少群,庹国柱.国外农业保险发展模式及扶持政策. 世界农业, 1997, 08
(26)丁学东. 西班牙农业保险政策及对我们的启示[J]. 农业经济问题,2005,08.
(27)段家喜. 农业保险制度面临两难选择[N]. 中国保险报, 2004 年 3 月 25 日)
(28)段昆. 美国农业保险制度及其对我国农业保险发展的启示. 中国软科学,2002 03
(29)冯文丽. 美、日农业保险制度对我国农险模式选择的启示. 农村经济, 2002 12
(30)段学慧. 政府还是市场——论我国农业保险的出路[J]. 重庆师范大学学报,2004,01
(31)冯文丽,苏晓鹏. 美国农业保险制度变迁的经济学分析. 金融教学与研究,2003,01
(32)冯文丽. 加快建立我国的农业保险体系. 经济与管理, 2003, 02
(33)顾江. 我国农业保险的问题及对策探讨. 农业经济问题, 2000,12
(34)郭永利. 关于我国农村保险现状、问题与出路的思考. 农业经济问题,1991,10
(35)郭永利. 论农业保险的政策性及其发展空间. 农业经济问题,1999,08
(36) 何文彬. 新疆生产建设兵团保险市场现状分析[J]. 新疆财经学院学报,2002,03.
(37)胡秋明. 论我国农业保险发展制度创新. 财经科学,2005,05.
(38)胡亦琴. 论农业保险制度的基本框架与路径选择. 农业经济问题, 2003,10
(39)蒋永辉. 我国农业保险的经营模式. 上海保险, 1994,03
(40)金昌军 于辉. 高垦区农业互助保险偿付能力. 农场经济管理, 2003,04
(41)黎淑英.日本的农业保险制度[J]. 保险研究, 1994,(2):59-62.
(42)刘金鼎. 对内乡县农村互助保险情况的调查与思考. 中国保险, 1997,01
(43)刘云. 日本农业损失的保险补偿体系. 黑龙江农业科学, 2000,06
(44)刘祖疆等. 兵团农业保险存在的问题及对策. 新疆农垦经济, 1999,03
(45)龙春霞等.论农业保险体系中存在的问题及对策. 河北农业大学学报, 2003,01
(46)龙文军 吴良. 美国农业保险的发展历程和经验. 世界农业, 2002,03
(47)龙文军.法国农业保险制度及经验. 世界农业, 2003,05
(48)卢骅. 辽宁省农用机动车保险现状及对策. 农村机械化, 1998,12
(49)马育红.论我国农业保险制度的完善与发展. 开发研究, 2003,05
(50)皮曙初. 何建锋.关于中国农业保险问题的思考. 农业经济问题, 1994,08
(51)秦征. 兵团保险业走向大市场的思考[J]. 新疆农垦科技,1996,04
(52)任巧巧. 我国应尽快建立农业保险体系. 保险研究, 2002, 04
(53)陕西省课题组. 试论农业保险体制与效益[J]. 中国保险, 1995, 06.
(54)申曙光. 农业保险体制改革的总体构想. 农业现代化研究,1994, 03.
(55)沈达尊. 论我国农业保险体制与从业人员培养. 中国农村经济,1994, 06.
(56)沈思玮. 日本保险业的发展概况. 保险研究, 1997, 08
(57)施志新. 兵团农业保险的践与探索. 新疆农垦经济, 2002,01
(58) 史建民. 面对 WTO 完善我国农业灾害补偿制度势在必行. 调研世界, 2002 , 07.
(59)孙立明.农业保险的发展实践与理论反思—世界经验的比较与启示.经济科学,2003,04
(60)孙文军. 中国农业保险模式的比较与选择. 理论与改革, 2000,01
(61)孙晓洁等. 对黑龙江垦区农业保险问题的思考. 农场经济管理, 1999,03
(62)孙晓洁等. 我国农业保险问题的若干思考[J]. 黑龙江八一农垦大学学报, 1998,06.
(63)庹国柱 李军 我国农业保险试验的成就、矛盾及出路. 农业经济问题, 2003 ,09.
(64)庹国柱. 农业保险体制改革模式选择. 中国农村经济,1997,06
(65)王国军,叶波. 农业保险:一个沉甸甸的话题. 经济论坛,1996,02.
(66) 王国敏. 市场经济国家的农业保险制度以及对我国的启示. 经济问题探索, 1998,12
(67)王和,皮立波. 论发展我国政策性农业保险的策略. 保险研究,2004,02.
(68)王强. 农业保险体制改革座谈会纪要. 中国改革,1995, 09.
(69)王通,陆永汉. 江苏省农业保险发展. 保险研究, 2005 ,05.
(70)王亚军. 俄罗斯农业保险改革之我见 . 保险研究, 1999,02
(71)王延辉,赵仕平. 新疆农业保险市场调查报告[J]. 保险研究,2002,05.
(72)谢家智. 农业保险区域化发展问题研究. 农业现代化研究, 2004,01
(73)谢家智. 蒲林昌. 政府诱导型农业保险发展模式研究. 保险研究,2003,11
(74)谢家智. 农业保险区域化发展问题研究. 农业现代化研究,2004,01.
(75)辛欣. 国外农业保险的政策措施及经验. 上海保险, 1996,01
(76) 邢骊. 新疆兵团农业保险发展的实证分析[J]. 石河子大学学报,2003, 02.
(77)熊存开. 国外农业风险管理研究 . 农业经济问题,1994.01
(78)徐桂红,陈珂. 农业保险发展模式研究. 农业经济, 2003,02
(79) 许飞琼. 论我国的农业灾害损失与农业政策保险. 中国软科学,2002, 09.
(80)杨东升. 试论我国农业保险的经营模式. 金融教学与研究,1997,04.
(81)杨生斌. 论中国农村保险组织制度安排.陕西财经学院学报,1994,05.
(82) 姚海, 赵锦城. 合作农业保险:我国农业保险的理性选择. 农业经济问题, 2004 09
(83) 叶月明. 陆建明. 对我国农业灾害损失补偿机制的再认识. 经济评论,1997, 04.
(84)虞锡君. 农业保险与农业产业化互动机制探析. 农业经济问题,2005,08.
(85)张国海. 发展我国农业保险,必须解决十个问题,《金融研究》,1997.1
(86)张时霖. 美国农业保险制度. 世界农业, 1999 11
(87)张跃华 顾海英. 上海农业保险状况分析与对策探讨. 上海农村经济, 2003 11
(88)张跃华,顾海英,万皓. 新疆建设兵团农业保险调查——对农业保险商业性保险公司代理模式的分析[J]. 新疆大学学报(社会科学版), 2005,02
(89)张跃华,顾海英. 准公共品、外部性与农业保险的性质——对农业保险政策性补贴理论的探讨. 中国软科学,2004,09.
(90)张跃华等. 农业保险需求不足效用层面的一个解释及实证研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2005,04.
(91)赵仕平. 谈新疆农业保险的发展思路. 新疆金融, 2003, 01.
(92)中国保监会海南监管局. 关于海南省农业保险的调查与思考. 海南金融,2004 03.
(93)钟玉林. 美国农业保险体系借鉴. 浙江金融,2000, 12.
(94) 朱淑芳,赖景生. 建立中国的农业保险体制. 农业经济问题,1994, 05.
(95) 左清泉. 日本的农业保险——赴日归来的思考[J]. 山东农业(农村经济版), 1994,05.
(96) Ahsan, S.M., Ali, A. and Kurian, K. Toward a theory of agricultural insurance [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1982, 64: 520-529.
(97) Andersen, Torben G and Tim Bollerslev. Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models do Provide Accurate Forecasts [J], International Economic Review, 1998, 39: 885 一905.
(98) Antle, J.M. and C.C. Crissman. Risk, efficiency, and the adoption of modern crop varieties: Evidence from the Philippines [J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1990, 38:517-537.
(99) Antle, J.M. Econometric estimation of producers' risk attitudes [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1987, 69: 509-22.
(100) Antle, J.M. Nonstructural risk attitude estimation [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1989, 71:74-84.
(101) Arrow, K. The role of securities in the optimal allocation of risk bearing [J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1964, 31:91-96.
(102) Atwood, J. A., A. E. Baquet, and M. J. Watts. Rating procedures for IP expansion to fall seeded wheat. Unpub. staff paper, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University, Bozeman, September 1996.
(103) Azam, J. P. The impact of floods on the adoption rate of high-yielding rice varieties in Bangladesh[J]。Agricultural Economics, 1996, 13: 179-189.
(104) Baillie, Richard T. and Robert J. Myers. Bivariate Garch Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1991, 6 (2): 109 一 I 24.
(105) Beller, Kenneth and John R. Nofsinger. On Stock Return Seasonality and Conditional Heteroscedasticity[J].The Journal of Financial Research, 1998, 21 (2): 229 一 246.
(106) Bengt Holmstrom. (1979). Moral Hazard and Observability. Bell Journal of Economics 10: 74~91
(107) Bingfan Ke, and H. Holly Wang. An Assessment of Risk Management Strategies for Grain Growers in the Pacific Northwest [J]. Agricultural Finance Review, 2002,62:117-133.
(108) Bollerslev, Tim. A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model of Speculative Prices and Rates of Return [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987, 69: 542-547.
(109) Botts, R.R. and J. N. Boles. Use of Normal-Curve Theory in Crop Insurance Ratemaking [J]. J.Farm Econ, 1958, 40: 733-740.
(110) Box, G. and D. Pierce. Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Autoregressive Moving Average Time Series Models[J],Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1970, 65: 1509-1526.
(111) Bruce A. Babcock, and David A. Hennessy. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance." American. Journal of Agricultural. Economics. 78 (May 1996): 416-427.
(112) Bruce A. Babcock, Chad E. Hart, and Dermot J. Hayes. Crop Insurance Rates and the Laws of Probability. Working Paper 02-WP 298, April 2002.
(113) Buccola, S. Testing for Non-Normality in Farm Net Returns [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1986, 68: 334-343.
(114) Chad E. Hart and Bruce A. Babcock. Rankings of Risk Management Strategies Combining Crop Insurance Products and Marketing Positions. Working Paper 01-WP 267, February 2001.
(115) Chambers, Insurability and moral hazard in agricultural insurance markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1989. 71. 3, 604-616.
(116) Cornew, Ronald W., Donald E. Town, and Lawrence D. Crowson. Stable Distributions,Futures Prices, and the Measurement of Trading Performance: Response [J]. Journal of Futures Markets, 1984,4 (4): 531-557.
(117) Darrell L. Hueth. Economics of Agriculture Crop Insurance. Theory and Evidence [M]. Boston/Dordrencht/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers 1994.
(118) Davis, S. B., T J. Price, M. E. Wetzstein, and M. W. Rieger. Reducing yield variation in peach orchards by geographic scattering [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1997, 79(4): 1119-1126.
(119) Designs on Farmer Participation and Welfare [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1998, 80:806-820.
(120) Duan, J. C. The GARCH Option Pricing Model [J]. Mathematical Finance, 1995, 5: 13-32.
(121) E. Parzen. On estimation of a probability density function and mode [J]. Ann. Math. Statistic, 1962,Vo1.33: 1065-1076. Economics, 2000,25:411-431.
(122) European Commission Working Document , Risks Managment Tool for EU Agriculture With a special focus on insurance ,January 2001.
(123) Friedman, M. & L. J. Savage (1948), The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 56, pp 279-304, August 1948
(124) Pratt, J. (1964). Risk Aversion In The Small And In The Large. Econometrica 32: 132-136. Reprinted in Diamond and Rothschild
(125) Goodwin, B. K. Premium rate determination in the Federal Crop Insurance Program: What do averages have to say about risk? [J]. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 1994, 19(2):382-395.
(126) Goodwin, Barry K., Matthew C. Roberts, and Keith H. Coble. Measurement of Price Risk in Revenue Insurance: Implications of Distributional Assumptions [J]. Journal of Agricultural andResource Economics, 2000, 25 (1): 195-214.
(127) Goodwin, BarryK and Vincent H.Smith. The Economics of Crop Insurance and Disaster Aid [M].Washington,DC: The AEI Press,1995.
(128) Hauser, R.J., P Garcia and Tumblin. Basis Expectations and Soybean Hedging Effectiveness [J]. North Central Journal of American cultural Economics, 1990, 12: 125-136.
(129) Hazell,Peter,and AlbertoValdes.Crop Insurance for Agricultural Development: Issues and Experience. Baltimore [M].The John Hopkins University Press, 2000.
(130) Horowitz, J.K., and E. Lichtenberg. Insurance, Moral Hazard, and Chemical Use in Agriculture [J]. Amer. J. Agr. Econ, 1993, 75: 926-935.
(131) Hull, J.C. Options, Futures and Other Derivative Securities [M]. 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ Prentice-Hall Inc, 1993.
(132) Jean-Paul Chavas and Matthew T. Holt. Acreage Decisions Under Risk: The Case of Corn and Soybeans [J]. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 1990, August: 529-538.
(133) Jeffrey M. Wooldridge. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (Chinese version) [M] Beijing: China People's University Press, 2003.
(134) Johnson, M.E. and A. Tenenbein. A Bivariate Distribution Family with Specified Marginals [J]. Journal of American Statistical Association, 1981, 76: 198-201.
(135) Joseph W. Glauber & Keith J. Collins. (2002). Crop Insurance, Disaster Assistance, and the Role of the Federal Government in Providing Catastrophic Risk Protection [J]. Agricultural Finance Review, Fall 2002, 82-103
(136) Judd, Kenneth L. Numerical Methods in Economics [M]. MIT Press:Cambridge, MA, 1998.
(137) JunJie Wu. Crop Insurance, Acreage Decisions, and Nonpoint-source Pollution [J]. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 1999, 81:305-320.
(138) Just, R. E., L. Calvin, and J. Quiggin. “Adverse Selection in Crop Insurance.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 81(November 1999): 834--49.
(139) Kaylen M.S., and S.S.Koroma. Trend, Weather Variables, and the distribution of U.S. Corn Yields [J]. Rev. Agr. Econ, 1991, 13:249-258.
(140) King, R.P., J.R. Black, RJ. Benson, and PA. Pavkov. The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator Microcomputer Program [J]. Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1988, 20:165-71.
(141) King, RP. and G.E. Oamek. (1983) Risk Management by Colorado Dryland Wheat Farmers and the Elimination of Disaster Assistance Programs. Amer. J. Air. Econ. 65 (May): 247-55.
(142) Kmenta, J. Elements of Econometrics [M]. 2nd ed. New York: Macmillan, 1986.
(143) Knight, T.O., & K.H. Coble. (1997). Survey of U.S. Multiple Peril Crop Insurace Literature Since 1980 [J], Review of Agricultural Economics (spring summer [19]) :128-156
(144) Law, Averill M. and W David Kelton. Simulation Modeling and Analysis [M]. McGraw-Hill: New Tork 1982.
(145) Lemieux, C.M., J. W. Richardson & C.J. Nixon. (1982). Federal Crop Insurance vs. ASCS Disaster Assistance for Texas High Plains Cotton Producers: An Application of Whole Farm Simulation. West. J. Agr. Econ. 7(December):141-53.
(146) Maddala, GS. Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics [M], Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983.
(147) Mario Miranda and DmitryV.vedenov, Innovations in Agricultural and Natural Disaster insurance[J]. American Journal Agricultural Economics, August 2001.
(148) Menz, K.M. and PPardey. Technology and U.S. Corn Yields: Plateaus and Price Responsiveness [J]. Amer.J.Agr.Econ, 1983,65: 558-562.
(149) Miller, S. E., K. H. Kahl, and P J. Rathwell. Revenue insurance for Georgia and South Carolina peaches [J]. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2000, 32(1): 123-132.
(150) Miranda, M.J., and J. W. Glauber. Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1997,79:206-215.
(151) Miranda,M.J.Area-Yield Crop Insurance Reconsidered. American Journal of Agricultural Economics ,73 (1991)
(152) Nelson C, Loehman E. 1984. Further toward a theory of agricultural insurance. Staff paper.,84 一 17. Purdue University, West Layafette, Indiana, 26.
(153) Nelson, C. and Loehman, E. Further toward a theory of agricultural insurance [J). American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1987, 69(3): 523-531.
(154) P. K. Ray, Agricultural Insurance, theory and Practice and Application to Developing Countries 2nd Edition, Pergacnon Press, 1982
(155) Patrick GF, Lloyd AG, Cary JW. 1985. Crop and rainfall insurance: some results from the Victorian mallee. Staff paper, 85 一 14. Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana.
(156) Peter Hazell , Carlos Pomareda , Alberto Valdes.Crop Insurance Agriculture development[M].Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986
(157) Pramod K. Mishra. Agriculture Risk,lnsurance and Income:A Study of the Impact and Design ofIndia' s Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme[M]. Aldershot: Avebury, 1996.
(158) Review of Agricultural Economics, 1997, 19(1): 128-156.
(159) Robert G. Chambers. Insurability and Moral Hazard in Agricultural Insurance Markets [J). Amer. J. Agr. Econ, 1989, August: 604-616.
(160) Rosenzweig M. R.,1988. Risk, implicit contracts and the family in rural areas of low 一income countries. Economics Journal,98:1148-1170.
(161) Schacht,H.,1990. Sunflower snafu could hurt crop insurance program. San Francisco Chronicle, May 15.
(162) Scott M. Swinton and Robert P King. Evaluating Robust Regression Techniques for Detrending Crop Yield Data with Nonnormal Errors (J). American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1991, 73 (May): 446-451.
(163) Serra, T., B. K. Goodwin, and A. M. Featherstone. (2003), Modeling Changes in the U.S. Demand for Crop Insurance during the 1990s. Agricultural Finance Review, 63(2): 109-125
(164) Statistics Approach,The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2003, 70: 113-126.
(165) Stephen E. Miller, Kandice H. Kahl, and P James Rathwell. Evaluation of Crop Insurance Premium Rates for Georgia and South Carolina Peaches [J]. Journal of Agribusinessl, 2000, 8(3): 303-317.
(166) Taylor, C. Robert. A Flexible Method for Empirically Estimating Probability Functions.WesternJournal of Agricultural Economics, 1984, 9: 61-76.
(167) Terence J. Centner & Michael E. Wetzstein (1987). Reducing Moral Hazard Associated With Implied Warranties of Animal Health, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 69: 143-150
(168) Tong, Y The Multivariate Normal Distribution [M]. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1990.
(169) U. S. Congress, Commission for the Improvement of the Federal Crop Insurance Program ,1989. Recommendations and findings to improve the Federal crop insurance program. Principal report,Washing-ton, DC, 240
(170) U.S. General Accounting Office, 1987. Crop insurance, overpayment of claims by private companies costs the government millions. Briefing report to congressional requesters.Washington, DC,72.
(171) Von Neumann, J and O. Morgenstern. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press.
(172) Walker TS, Jodha NS,1986. How small farm households adapt to risk. In: Crop insurance for agricul-tural development:issues and experience. Johns Hopkins University Press.
(173) Wright B. D. and J. A. Hewitt,1994. All 一 risk Crop insurance:Lessons from Theory and Experience.Economics of Agricultural Crop Insurance, Edited by D. L. Hueth and W. H. Furtan, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
(174) Wright, B.D., & J.D. Hewitt. (1990). All Risk Crop Insurance: Lessons From Theory and Experience. Giannini Foundation, California Agricultural Experiment Station, Berkeley, April.
(175) Zering, K.D., C.O. McCorkle, and C. V. Moore (1987). The Utility of Multiple Peril Crop Insurance for Irrigated, Multiple-Crop Agriculture. West. J. Agr. Econ. 12 (July)