金融创新背景下中国金融稳定性研究
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摘要
纵观金融创新的发展历程,不难发现全方位、多层次的金融创新已经成为一种常态,它不仅推动着金融结构演进和金融深化进程,为现代经济增长带来了新的动力源泉,金融创新的复杂性也对金融稳定造成了巨大冲击。金融系统越来越成为一个开放的、动态的、非线性的复杂巨系统。过度的金融创新使金融市场日益脱媒化和证券化,放大了衍生产品的杠杆效应,为金融市场异常剧烈波动、金融危机频发埋下了伏笔。特别是本轮全球金融危机的爆发更让人们意识到金融创新是一把“双刃剑”,不可过度使用,更不能任其泛滥成灾。因此,如何避免金融创新对金融稳定造成的负效应,维护金融稳定运行,已成为当前各国金融业面临的一个难题。
为此本文运用金融学和复杂系统论等交叉学科和理论,以及Granger因果检验、BP神经网络方法等计量经济学方法,采用理论研究与实证分析相结合,定性描述与定量分析相结合等方法,以金融创新背景下的中国金融稳定为研究对象,分析金融创新背景下相关因素对金融稳定的作用机理,设计金融稳定性评估综合指标体系,构建金融创新背景下中国金融稳定性预警模型,并结合当前中国金融发展与创新实践,提出了符合中国特点的稳定机制与保障机制。全文分为四大部分：
第一部分：金融创新背景下金融稳定机制的理论研究。从“制度—功能”视角,对金融创新背景下的金融稳定内涵进行再界定,提炼出金融创新背景下的金融稳定具有整体性、反馈性、介稳性、非线性和效率性这五大特征。在此基础上,对金融创新背景下影响金融稳定的因素及相关稳定机制进行了重新梳理和总结。为后文研究提供了对象、渠道和方向。
第二部分：主要分析了金融创新背景下相关因素影响金融稳定的作用机理。以金融创新和金融稳定复杂性为依托,从金融创新对金融稳定的直接影响机理、金融创新背景下宏观经济运行因素对金融稳定的影响机理和金融创新背景下金融要素变迁对金融稳定的影响机理这三个层次全方位剖析了金融创新影响金融稳定的直接、间接机理。结果表明,金融创新对金融稳定的影响是全面而复杂的,这种复杂关系不仅体现在两者之间的多重互动关系,还体现在普遍的时滞性和动态非线性关系。
第三部分：金融创新背景下中国金融稳定的实证研究。首先通过对比国内外现有的评估指标体系,探讨它们在评估金融稳定上的借鉴价值以及对金融创新背景下金融稳定进行评估的适用性。在此基础上以金融创新为背景,运用系统论的观点,参考IMF提出的“宏观审慎管理”理念,构建包括宏观经济金融指标、金融系统内部稳定性指标和国际金融环境指标在内的金融稳定性评估指标体系。运用Granger因果关系检验等计量经济学方法,进一步从实证角度验证了金融创新与中国金融稳定性之间存在着直接和间接的关联性。最后,运用BP神经网络方法构建金融创新背景下中国金融稳定性预警模型,并对2012年中国金融的整体运行状况进行了预警分析。结果表明,在金融创新背景下,国内外金融环境的变化成为影响中国金融稳定性最主要的因素,而从总体上讲2012年度中国金融的稳定性处于低度风险状态。
第四部分：主要对金融创新背景下中国金融稳定的优化机制设计提出了对策建议。导致中国金融处于低度风险状态的根源在于金融创新供给不足、金融结构性失衡以及金融监管体制改革严重滞后。提出实现金融创新背景下中国金融稳定的优化机制。首先要从继续深化金融改革、建立健全逆周期金融宏观审慎管理制度、强化中央银行管理职能入手提高中国金融系统自身抵御风险的能力。同时通过加快产权制度改革进程,完善公司治理；完善征信制度,创造良好信用环境；推进计算机网络技术在金融领域的应用等方面加强中国金融系统平稳运行的外部保障。
Looking through the development process of financial innovation, it is not difficult to see that comprehensive and multi-level financial innovation has become a norm. Financial innovation not only propels the evolution of financial structure and the deepening process of finance, bringing in new sources of motivation for the growth of modern economy, but its complexity also cause great impact on financial stability. The financial system is becoming an increasingly open, dynamic and non-linear huge complex system. Excessive financial innovation causes the financial market to disintermediate and securitize day by day, amplify the leverage effect of derivatives and foreshadow the exceptional fluctuations of the financial market and frequent financial crisis. The breakout of this round of global financial crisis has especially made people realize that financial innovation is a double-blade sword, which cannot be over-used, let alone indulged. Therefore, how to avoid financial innovation's negative effects on financial stability and maintain the steady operation of finance has become a tough issue for the financial industries of many countries nowadays.
Utilizing interdisciplinary subjects and theories such as finance and complex systems theory, together with econometrics methods such as Granger causality test and BP neural network model, this disertation, taking the background of financial innovation as the object of study, analyzes the mechanism of action of relevant factors under the background of financial innovation toward financial stability based on the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis, qualitative description and quantitative analysis, as well as China's financial stability, devises a comprehensive evaluation index system for financial stability, and constructs an early warning model of China's financial stability under financial innovation. Combining China's current financial development and innovation practices, the disertation proposes stability and security mechanism that suit Chinese characteristics. In general, the disertation is divided into four parts.
Part one:Theoretical research of financial stability mechanism under financial innovation. From the perspective of "system-function", this part remarks the boundary of the meaning of financial stability under financial innovation and extracts the five characteristics of integrated, responsive, metastable, non-linear and effective of financial stability under financial innovation. Based on this, this part re-combs and summarizes factors that affect financial stability and relevant stability mechanism under financial innovation and provides fundation, channel and direction for the following study.
Part two:this part mainly analyses the influence mechanism of relevant factors toward financial stability under financial innovation. With financial innovation and the complexity of financial stability as support, this part conducts a comprehensive analysis of the direct and indirect influence mechanism of financial innovation toward financial stability from the following three levels, the direct influence mechanism of financial innovation toward financial stability, the influence mechanism of macro-economic operation factors toward financial stability under financial innovation and the influence mechanism of financial elements changes toward financial stability under financial innovation. The result shows that the influence of financial innovation toward financial stability is comprehensive and complex. The complex relationship is reflected not only in the multi-level interaction between the two, but also in the general time lag and dynamic non-linear relationship.
Part three:empirical study of China's financial stability under financial innovation. Firstly, through the comparison of the existing evaluation index systems with domestically and internationally, the dissertation discusses their reference value in financial stability evaluation and the applicability in the evaluation of financial stability under financial innovation. Based on this and with financial innovation as the background, this part adopts viewpoints of system theory and, with reference to the idea of "prudent macro management" by IMF, constructs financial stability evaluation index system including macro-economy financial index, financial system internal stability index and international financial environment index. And adopting econometrics methods such as Granger causality test, this part first further proves that there exists direct and indirect connection between financial innovation and China's financial stability. Finally, using BP neural network model, this part constructs China's financial stability early warning model under financial innovation and makes a forecast of the overall operation status of China's finance in2012. The result shows that under the background of financial innovation, the changes in internal and external financial environment have become the primary factor affecting China's financial stability, but generally, China's financial stability in2012is in low risk status.
Part four: advice for the optimization mechanism design of China's financial stability under the background of financial innovation. The root cause of the low risk status of China's financial system lies in the insufficient supply of financial innovation, structural disequilibrium of financial system and the serious lag of the financial regulatory system. This part proposes the optimization mechanism for China's financial stability under financial innovation. First, it is necessary to increase the ability of China's financial system to self-resist risks by continuing to deepen financial reform, building a complete conversion period financial prudent macro management system and strengthening Central Bank's management function and at the same time strengthen external guarantee for the steady operation of China's financial system by speeding up the process of property rights system reform, completing company management, completing credit reference system in order to create a good credit environment and promoting the application of computer network technology in the financial domain.
为此本文运用金融学和复杂系统论等交叉学科和理论,以及Granger因果检验、BP神经网络方法等计量经济学方法,采用理论研究与实证分析相结合,定性描述与定量分析相结合等方法,以金融创新背景下的中国金融稳定为研究对象,分析金融创新背景下相关因素对金融稳定的作用机理,设计金融稳定性评估综合指标体系,构建金融创新背景下中国金融稳定性预警模型,并结合当前中国金融发展与创新实践,提出了符合中国特点的稳定机制与保障机制。全文分为四大部分：
第一部分：金融创新背景下金融稳定机制的理论研究。从“制度—功能”视角,对金融创新背景下的金融稳定内涵进行再界定,提炼出金融创新背景下的金融稳定具有整体性、反馈性、介稳性、非线性和效率性这五大特征。在此基础上,对金融创新背景下影响金融稳定的因素及相关稳定机制进行了重新梳理和总结。为后文研究提供了对象、渠道和方向。
第二部分：主要分析了金融创新背景下相关因素影响金融稳定的作用机理。以金融创新和金融稳定复杂性为依托,从金融创新对金融稳定的直接影响机理、金融创新背景下宏观经济运行因素对金融稳定的影响机理和金融创新背景下金融要素变迁对金融稳定的影响机理这三个层次全方位剖析了金融创新影响金融稳定的直接、间接机理。结果表明,金融创新对金融稳定的影响是全面而复杂的,这种复杂关系不仅体现在两者之间的多重互动关系,还体现在普遍的时滞性和动态非线性关系。
第三部分：金融创新背景下中国金融稳定的实证研究。首先通过对比国内外现有的评估指标体系,探讨它们在评估金融稳定上的借鉴价值以及对金融创新背景下金融稳定进行评估的适用性。在此基础上以金融创新为背景,运用系统论的观点,参考IMF提出的“宏观审慎管理”理念,构建包括宏观经济金融指标、金融系统内部稳定性指标和国际金融环境指标在内的金融稳定性评估指标体系。运用Granger因果关系检验等计量经济学方法,进一步从实证角度验证了金融创新与中国金融稳定性之间存在着直接和间接的关联性。最后,运用BP神经网络方法构建金融创新背景下中国金融稳定性预警模型,并对2012年中国金融的整体运行状况进行了预警分析。结果表明,在金融创新背景下,国内外金融环境的变化成为影响中国金融稳定性最主要的因素,而从总体上讲2012年度中国金融的稳定性处于低度风险状态。
第四部分：主要对金融创新背景下中国金融稳定的优化机制设计提出了对策建议。导致中国金融处于低度风险状态的根源在于金融创新供给不足、金融结构性失衡以及金融监管体制改革严重滞后。提出实现金融创新背景下中国金融稳定的优化机制。首先要从继续深化金融改革、建立健全逆周期金融宏观审慎管理制度、强化中央银行管理职能入手提高中国金融系统自身抵御风险的能力。同时通过加快产权制度改革进程,完善公司治理；完善征信制度,创造良好信用环境；推进计算机网络技术在金融领域的应用等方面加强中国金融系统平稳运行的外部保障。
Looking through the development process of financial innovation, it is not difficult to see that comprehensive and multi-level financial innovation has become a norm. Financial innovation not only propels the evolution of financial structure and the deepening process of finance, bringing in new sources of motivation for the growth of modern economy, but its complexity also cause great impact on financial stability. The financial system is becoming an increasingly open, dynamic and non-linear huge complex system. Excessive financial innovation causes the financial market to disintermediate and securitize day by day, amplify the leverage effect of derivatives and foreshadow the exceptional fluctuations of the financial market and frequent financial crisis. The breakout of this round of global financial crisis has especially made people realize that financial innovation is a double-blade sword, which cannot be over-used, let alone indulged. Therefore, how to avoid financial innovation's negative effects on financial stability and maintain the steady operation of finance has become a tough issue for the financial industries of many countries nowadays.
Utilizing interdisciplinary subjects and theories such as finance and complex systems theory, together with econometrics methods such as Granger causality test and BP neural network model, this disertation, taking the background of financial innovation as the object of study, analyzes the mechanism of action of relevant factors under the background of financial innovation toward financial stability based on the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis, qualitative description and quantitative analysis, as well as China's financial stability, devises a comprehensive evaluation index system for financial stability, and constructs an early warning model of China's financial stability under financial innovation. Combining China's current financial development and innovation practices, the disertation proposes stability and security mechanism that suit Chinese characteristics. In general, the disertation is divided into four parts.
Part one:Theoretical research of financial stability mechanism under financial innovation. From the perspective of "system-function", this part remarks the boundary of the meaning of financial stability under financial innovation and extracts the five characteristics of integrated, responsive, metastable, non-linear and effective of financial stability under financial innovation. Based on this, this part re-combs and summarizes factors that affect financial stability and relevant stability mechanism under financial innovation and provides fundation, channel and direction for the following study.
Part two:this part mainly analyses the influence mechanism of relevant factors toward financial stability under financial innovation. With financial innovation and the complexity of financial stability as support, this part conducts a comprehensive analysis of the direct and indirect influence mechanism of financial innovation toward financial stability from the following three levels, the direct influence mechanism of financial innovation toward financial stability, the influence mechanism of macro-economic operation factors toward financial stability under financial innovation and the influence mechanism of financial elements changes toward financial stability under financial innovation. The result shows that the influence of financial innovation toward financial stability is comprehensive and complex. The complex relationship is reflected not only in the multi-level interaction between the two, but also in the general time lag and dynamic non-linear relationship.
Part three:empirical study of China's financial stability under financial innovation. Firstly, through the comparison of the existing evaluation index systems with domestically and internationally, the dissertation discusses their reference value in financial stability evaluation and the applicability in the evaluation of financial stability under financial innovation. Based on this and with financial innovation as the background, this part adopts viewpoints of system theory and, with reference to the idea of "prudent macro management" by IMF, constructs financial stability evaluation index system including macro-economy financial index, financial system internal stability index and international financial environment index. And adopting econometrics methods such as Granger causality test, this part first further proves that there exists direct and indirect connection between financial innovation and China's financial stability. Finally, using BP neural network model, this part constructs China's financial stability early warning model under financial innovation and makes a forecast of the overall operation status of China's finance in2012. The result shows that under the background of financial innovation, the changes in internal and external financial environment have become the primary factor affecting China's financial stability, but generally, China's financial stability in2012is in low risk status.
Part four: advice for the optimization mechanism design of China's financial stability under the background of financial innovation. The root cause of the low risk status of China's financial system lies in the insufficient supply of financial innovation, structural disequilibrium of financial system and the serious lag of the financial regulatory system. This part proposes the optimization mechanism for China's financial stability under financial innovation. First, it is necessary to increase the ability of China's financial system to self-resist risks by continuing to deepen financial reform, building a complete conversion period financial prudent macro management system and strengthening Central Bank's management function and at the same time strengthen external guarantee for the steady operation of China's financial system by speeding up the process of property rights system reform, completing company management, completing credit reference system in order to create a good credit environment and promoting the application of computer network technology in the financial domain.
引文
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