摘要
艾比湖是新疆第二大湖泊,也是新疆最大的咸水湖。在上世纪四十年代初,湖面面积约为1200km~2。自上世纪五十年代以来,由于流域的过度开发和不合理的水资源利用,湖面面积逐渐减少,萎缩到目前的542Km~2左右。根据资料统计,在过去的20年中,大风每年从湖底卷起的盐沙有480万吨使数百里外的乌鲁木齐也受到风沙的侵袭,已是目前新疆最大的两大风沙源之一。由于过度开发,该地区60%的林木被毁坏。同时,还有大片的土地被荒废,生态系统严重退化。随着当前社会经济的快速发展,该流域若不进行适当的人口、农业、工业发展速度的控制,逐年增长的工农业及人民生活用水势必造成艾比湖水资源匮乏,面临干缩的危险。因此,本文在国家“十一五”规划关于我国西部开发坚持保护优先、开发有序,以控制不合理的资源开发活动为重点的原则下,探讨艾比湖流域目前水资源承载力的现状,以及今后的发展空间。
本文通过实地调查和采样实验室分析,结合3S技术对流域生态环境进行动态监测基础上掌握了流域水资源的开发利用以及水环境问题。认为要优化配置流域水资源,使社会、经济、生态得以协调发展,有必要进行流域水资源承载力的研究。本文主要利用系统动力学的定性分析和定量分析相结合的原理和方法建立水资源控制系统的模型,并以计算机为工具,进行仿真试验和计算。所获得的数据信息来分析和研究流域水资源系统的结构和行为,探讨流域在当前水资源约束下对今后社会经济的发展的承载力,并提出流域水资源可持续利用的对策,为有关部门进行决策提供政策建议。论文主要得出以下结论:
1.流域水资源是比较紧缺的,地表水、地下水资源的开发利用水平尚低,流域地下水资源的开发利用还有较大潜力。但天然河流来水与需水过程有明显的矛盾,精河流域的春旱、博河流域的夏旱是制约农业发展的重要因素。另外,流域地表水环境目前未受到明显的人为污染。随着流域社会经济的发展,流域水环境污染问题不容忽视。
2.基于水资源利用现状和水资源利用紧张程度,以及流域原有的不合理水资源系统结构分析,构建水资源系统的因果反馈图和子流图,建立流域水资源承载力系统动力学模型。本模型共设置变量99个,4个水平变量分别为可供水资源量、人口、工业产值、农业产值8个流率变量,50个辅助变量,常量37个,58个方程式。
3.通过SD模型的模拟预测了流域2000~2030年水资源承载力的各项指标变化趋势;分区探讨流域一市两县水资源利用水平及社会经济发展规模。预测认为按现有的水平速度发展,全流域未来30年内可供水量、可承载人口、可承载农业、可承载工业发展都将呈较快速增长趋势:其中可供水量累计增长33.33%、可承载人口累计增长63.17%、可承载农业产值累计增长6.19倍、可承载工业产
The Aibi lake is the second largest lake and also the biggest salt water lake in Xinjiang. At the end of the 40~(th) of last century, the surface area of Aibi lake amounted to about 1200km~2. Since the beginning of the 50~(th) of last century, duing to the increasing demand of rapidly growing oasis populations, the surface of the lake has become smaller and smaller. At present, only two of the seven rivers are still reaching the shore of the lake.In the past twenty years, strong winds blew away about 4.8 million tons of salty sand from the dried lakebed every year. It is one of the two main headstreams of sandstorms in Xinjiang. Since the middle of the last century, nearly 60% of the forest in this region has been reduced by over-exploitation. In consequence, large areas of arable land have been lost to the desert. The settlements are subjected to continuous dust deposition. With the development of social economy, there are some problems mentioned. So, According to the eleventh "five-years-plan" , it emphasises on controling unreasonable activities of resource development in the western area in China, the paper researches the status quo of water resources carrying capacity and future development space in Aibi Lake Basin.
Through field investigation and sample analysis, and application of 3S technology on ecological environment monitoring, the paper found out the problem of water resources and water environment in Aibi Lake Basin. In order to optimize the allocation of water resources in Aibi Lake Basin and coordinate water resources with society, economy as well as ecological development, it is necessary to carry on the research on water resources carrying capacity in Aibi Lake Basin. On the basis of predecessors' research results, it gives calculable models of carrying capacity of water resources in Aibi Lake Basin and applies it into practice. This article mainly relies on qualitative and quantitative analysis of the systems dynamics to study controlling system model of water resources, and takes the computer as the tool to implement the simulation experiment and the computation. The paper researches carrying capacity of the social and economic development.under the restriction of water resources, and make sustainable measures of water resources.This paper mainly has seven sections:
1. It is suggested that water resource is relatively scarce in Aibi Lake Basin, but the current level of utilization of water resources is still low, particularly groundwater resources exploitation is still a larger potential, However, natural water and required water meet a clear contradiction, spring drought of Jinghe basin, summer drought of Bohe basin are bottle-neck of the development of agriculture. In addition, water
引文
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