中澳自贸区建立对中国乳品进口的影响研究
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摘要
中国和澳大利亚自由贸易区谈判从2005年3月的联合可行性研究开始，到2012年3月的堪培拉谈判，共举行了十八轮，目前中澳双方已在货物贸易、卫生和植物卫生问题、海关手续等问题的谈判上取得了进展，但是在农产品关税减让及设定敏感产品等方面还在进一步磋商。乳制品作为一种特殊商品，虽然目前双方的贸易量并不大，但其潜力很大。自贸区建立之后，可能会对中国特别是对中国奶业主产区产生重要影响，改变中国乳业的格局，因此乳品问题受到了谈判双方的共同关注。
2001年入世以来，在消费需求的强劲推动下，中国乳业获得了稳定而快速的发展，中国乳制品进口也快速增长。澳大利亚拥有独特的地理位置、低成本的奶牛业、严格的质量安全控制体系、持续创新的乳制品加工企业，乳制品在全球市场有很强的竞争力。由于中国与澳大利亚在原料奶的生产成本上存在巨大差异，未来中澳自贸区建立后，中国从澳大利亚进口乳制品关税降低，从澳大利亚进口乳制品数量会快速增加，对中国奶牛养殖业、加工业带来巨大冲击。中澳自贸区建立对中国乳业生产、贸易到底会产生什么影响，这种影响究竟有多大，也就成为一个值得研究的重要课题。
本文以中国乳制品的供给和需求为出发点，在全面了解中国乳制品市场贸易形势以及中澳乳制品贸易特点的基础上，先后利用市场份额模型、引力模型以及全球贸易分析模型，研究了中国乳制品进口贸易的规模和结构，以及中澳自贸区建立会给中国乳业发展产生的影响。本文研究主要得出以下结论:
（1）假设2015年中澳自贸区建立，中国乳品生产和进口贸易将会受到影响。在生产方面，中国原料奶和乳品的产量均有所下降，原奶生产价格将小幅上涨；在数量方面，中国从澳大利亚进口乳品数量将明显增加（76.88%），同时减少了从新西兰（5.61%）、美国及欧盟的乳品进口量，但是下降幅度不大；在价格方面，中国从澳大利亚、新西兰、美国及欧盟的乳品进口价格均下降，其中从澳大利亚进口价格降幅最大；在市场结构方面，由于目前中澳乳品贸易基数小，新西兰和美国仍然是中国最主要的乳品来源国，但是中澳乳品贸易未来发展潜力巨大。
（2）由于近年来中国奶业采取了一系列区别的价格、投资和支持政策，中国奶牛养殖业的生产规模不断扩大；由于饲料价格上涨，生鲜乳价格上调，规模化牧场生产成本较高。国内液态奶消费量占产量之比从2008年开始下降，而干乳制品进口量明显增加，进口价格迅速上涨。中国乳品进口依存度和市场集中度明显上升，来自新西兰与澳大利亚的乳品进口额差距不断扩大。由于澳大利亚的原奶收购价格比新西兰更具有比较优势，随着澳大利亚肉羊产业逐渐向乳业转型，其乳制品进口的影响将不可小觑。
（3）通过引力模型计算得知，中国和贸易伙伴国的国内生产总值、乳制品进口关税等变量对中国乳品进口贸易量具有显著地影响，而与两地首都间的距离不存在明显负相关关系。在其它条件不变的情况下，随着乳制品进口关税降低5%、10%、25%、50%和75%，中国自澳大利亚乳制品进口额将逐步增加17.54%、84.81%、264.38%和830.45%。2015年中澳自贸区建立后，中国从澳大利亚乳制品进口额将分别达到：2621.65万美元、3081.67万美元、5695.43万美元、20753.28万美元以及193099.25万美元。
（4）GTAP模型结果表明，假设2015年中澳自贸区建立，中国从澳大利亚乳品进口迅速增长，而出口增速缓慢，中国与澳大利亚乳品贸易的逆差压力将会进一步扩大。中国从澳大利亚乳制品进口量将增加3.32万吨，进口额将增加10312.24万美元，进口金额将达到28480万美元，该预测值与引力模型中乳制品进口关税削减到50%所得到的结果（2.07亿美元）比较接近。中国从澳大利亚进口乳制品价格将下降11.36%，即每吨3727.75美元，相比于从新西兰进口乳品价格（4474美元/吨），澳大利亚对中国乳制品出口上更具有竞争力。
（5）2015年中澳自贸区建立后，中国生鲜乳的生产价格将达到692.71美元/吨（约合4.37元/千克），而澳大利亚生鲜乳的生产价格将为每吨434.09美元（约合2.74元/千克），巨大的价格差距将使未来中国规模化牧场的生存和发展面临严峻挑战，因此中澳自贸区谈判过程中必须谨慎对待乳品进口关税的调整，并适当利用“黄箱”政策、充分利用“绿箱”政策保护和支持中国乳业生产的可持续发展。中国乳品企业应充分利用中澳自贸协定的有利条款，以直接投资或合资的形式扩大对澳投资，争取直接参与澳大利亚乳品生产及出口环节。
The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement negotiations began with a joint FTAFeasibility Study from March2005to Canberra negotiations in March2012, and there areeighteen rounds of negotiations. Both sides made progress on trade in goods, sanitary andphytosanitary (SPS) issues, customs procedures and so on, but still continued discussionson the cuts of agricultural tariff and the set of sensitive products. Dairy products as aspecial commodity, the volume of trade between the two sides is not large, but the potentialis great. After the FTA is established, it might be an important impact on China. So its tradehas been a common concern of the two sides.
Driven by strong consumer demand, China's dairy industry has gained considerablesteady and rapid development since joining the WTO in2001, and imports of dairyproducts have been rising constantly. Australia is known for its low-cost dairy farming andhigh-quality dairy products, and become another huge potential importing country outsideof New Zealand. There is a huge gap in the cost of raw milk between China and Australia,after the establishment of the China-Australia FTA, there will be a rapid increase in thequantity of dairy products imports from Australia with lower tariffs. It will have greatimpact on the development of China's cow farming and dairy industry.
Based on a comprehensive understanding of dairy trade between China and Australia,using the market share (CMS) model, the gravity model and global trade analysis model(GTAP model) respectively simulated and analyzed the impact of China-Australia FTA onChina's dairy industry. The main contents include the following five aspects:
Firstly, Suppose Sino-Australia FTA established in2015, production and import tradeof dairy industry will be affected in China. On production, production of raw milk anddairy products will decline, and the prices of raw milk will rise slightly. About quantity, thenumber of dairy products imports from Australia will significantly increase (76.88%),while reducing from New Zealand (5.61%), the United States and the EU, but notmarginally decrease. In terms of price, the prices of dairy products import from Australia,New Zealand, the U.S. and the EU will be down, but the prices from Australia will largerdecrease. On market structure, although currently there is small dairy trade between Chinaand Australia, New Zealand and the United States are also Chinese leading origins. Dairytrade between China and Australia has the enormous potential with establishment of theChina-Australian FTA.
Secondly, China has taken a series of differentiated prices, investment and support policies in dairy industry in recent years, and the average production scale of dairy farm isfast expanding. Due to rising prices of raw material, production costs of large-scale farmare higher than household. The farm gate price of raw milk is gradually increasing.Consumption of liquid milk accounts for the production started to decline from2008, whileimports of dry dairy products increased significantly, and the prices rose rapidly. Chinesedairy import dependency and market concentration increased significantly, and the gap ofdairy imports from New Zealand and Australian widen. As the price of raw milk inAustralia is more than New Zealand, and the sheep industry are gradually restructuring tothe dairy industry, so the impact of imports of dairy products from Australia will not beoverlooked.
Thirdly, the results by gravity model analysis show that gross domestic product (GDP)and import tariffs on dairy products of China and its trade partners has a positive influenceon China imports of dairy products, and the influence of distances is limited. As well asdairy products’ tariffs being reducing as5%、10%、25%、50%and75%, the value of dairyproducts China imports from Australia will increasing17.54%、84.81%、264.38%and830.45%.If Sino-Australia FTA established in2015, the import value will reach between26.22and1930.99million dollars.
Fourthly, the simulation results by using GTAP model show that China dairy importsfrom Australia will increase large, and the exports will be increase slowly when2015China-Australia FTA established. The deficit pressures on dairy trade will be furtherexpanded between China and Australia. The quantity of dairy products imports fromAustralia will increase by33,200tons, while the value will increase by103.12millionUSD in2015. The value would reach284.80million USD, and it relatively closes to thepredictive value (207million USD) of gravity model when import tariff reduces to50%.While the prices from Australia will decline11.36%, namely3,727.75USD per ton, theprices are more competitive than New Zealand (4,474$/ton) in dairy exports to China.
Fifthly, expected Sino-Australia FTA established in2015, the price of raw milk inChina will reach692.71$/ton, while the price of raw milk in Australian will be434.09$/ton. The huge price gap will result in the serious challenges of Chinese large-scale dairyfarm, so the adjustment of dairy import tariffs must be treated with very caution inChina-Australia FTA negotiations. Take appropriate use of the "Amber box" policies andfull advantage of the "Green box" policies and measures to protect and support thesustainable development of China's dairy production. Chinese dairy companies shouldseize the opportunity to expand investment in Australia by direct or joint venturesinvestment and to fight directly involved in the Australian dairy production and export sector under the favorable terms of FTA.
2001年入世以来，在消费需求的强劲推动下，中国乳业获得了稳定而快速的发展，中国乳制品进口也快速增长。澳大利亚拥有独特的地理位置、低成本的奶牛业、严格的质量安全控制体系、持续创新的乳制品加工企业，乳制品在全球市场有很强的竞争力。由于中国与澳大利亚在原料奶的生产成本上存在巨大差异，未来中澳自贸区建立后，中国从澳大利亚进口乳制品关税降低，从澳大利亚进口乳制品数量会快速增加，对中国奶牛养殖业、加工业带来巨大冲击。中澳自贸区建立对中国乳业生产、贸易到底会产生什么影响，这种影响究竟有多大，也就成为一个值得研究的重要课题。
本文以中国乳制品的供给和需求为出发点，在全面了解中国乳制品市场贸易形势以及中澳乳制品贸易特点的基础上，先后利用市场份额模型、引力模型以及全球贸易分析模型，研究了中国乳制品进口贸易的规模和结构，以及中澳自贸区建立会给中国乳业发展产生的影响。本文研究主要得出以下结论:
（1）假设2015年中澳自贸区建立，中国乳品生产和进口贸易将会受到影响。在生产方面，中国原料奶和乳品的产量均有所下降，原奶生产价格将小幅上涨；在数量方面，中国从澳大利亚进口乳品数量将明显增加（76.88%），同时减少了从新西兰（5.61%）、美国及欧盟的乳品进口量，但是下降幅度不大；在价格方面，中国从澳大利亚、新西兰、美国及欧盟的乳品进口价格均下降，其中从澳大利亚进口价格降幅最大；在市场结构方面，由于目前中澳乳品贸易基数小，新西兰和美国仍然是中国最主要的乳品来源国，但是中澳乳品贸易未来发展潜力巨大。
（2）由于近年来中国奶业采取了一系列区别的价格、投资和支持政策，中国奶牛养殖业的生产规模不断扩大；由于饲料价格上涨，生鲜乳价格上调，规模化牧场生产成本较高。国内液态奶消费量占产量之比从2008年开始下降，而干乳制品进口量明显增加，进口价格迅速上涨。中国乳品进口依存度和市场集中度明显上升，来自新西兰与澳大利亚的乳品进口额差距不断扩大。由于澳大利亚的原奶收购价格比新西兰更具有比较优势，随着澳大利亚肉羊产业逐渐向乳业转型，其乳制品进口的影响将不可小觑。
（3）通过引力模型计算得知，中国和贸易伙伴国的国内生产总值、乳制品进口关税等变量对中国乳品进口贸易量具有显著地影响，而与两地首都间的距离不存在明显负相关关系。在其它条件不变的情况下，随着乳制品进口关税降低5%、10%、25%、50%和75%，中国自澳大利亚乳制品进口额将逐步增加17.54%、84.81%、264.38%和830.45%。2015年中澳自贸区建立后，中国从澳大利亚乳制品进口额将分别达到：2621.65万美元、3081.67万美元、5695.43万美元、20753.28万美元以及193099.25万美元。
（4）GTAP模型结果表明，假设2015年中澳自贸区建立，中国从澳大利亚乳品进口迅速增长，而出口增速缓慢，中国与澳大利亚乳品贸易的逆差压力将会进一步扩大。中国从澳大利亚乳制品进口量将增加3.32万吨，进口额将增加10312.24万美元，进口金额将达到28480万美元，该预测值与引力模型中乳制品进口关税削减到50%所得到的结果（2.07亿美元）比较接近。中国从澳大利亚进口乳制品价格将下降11.36%，即每吨3727.75美元，相比于从新西兰进口乳品价格（4474美元/吨），澳大利亚对中国乳制品出口上更具有竞争力。
（5）2015年中澳自贸区建立后，中国生鲜乳的生产价格将达到692.71美元/吨（约合4.37元/千克），而澳大利亚生鲜乳的生产价格将为每吨434.09美元（约合2.74元/千克），巨大的价格差距将使未来中国规模化牧场的生存和发展面临严峻挑战，因此中澳自贸区谈判过程中必须谨慎对待乳品进口关税的调整，并适当利用“黄箱”政策、充分利用“绿箱”政策保护和支持中国乳业生产的可持续发展。中国乳品企业应充分利用中澳自贸协定的有利条款，以直接投资或合资的形式扩大对澳投资，争取直接参与澳大利亚乳品生产及出口环节。
The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement negotiations began with a joint FTAFeasibility Study from March2005to Canberra negotiations in March2012, and there areeighteen rounds of negotiations. Both sides made progress on trade in goods, sanitary andphytosanitary (SPS) issues, customs procedures and so on, but still continued discussionson the cuts of agricultural tariff and the set of sensitive products. Dairy products as aspecial commodity, the volume of trade between the two sides is not large, but the potentialis great. After the FTA is established, it might be an important impact on China. So its tradehas been a common concern of the two sides.
Driven by strong consumer demand, China's dairy industry has gained considerablesteady and rapid development since joining the WTO in2001, and imports of dairyproducts have been rising constantly. Australia is known for its low-cost dairy farming andhigh-quality dairy products, and become another huge potential importing country outsideof New Zealand. There is a huge gap in the cost of raw milk between China and Australia,after the establishment of the China-Australia FTA, there will be a rapid increase in thequantity of dairy products imports from Australia with lower tariffs. It will have greatimpact on the development of China's cow farming and dairy industry.
Based on a comprehensive understanding of dairy trade between China and Australia,using the market share (CMS) model, the gravity model and global trade analysis model(GTAP model) respectively simulated and analyzed the impact of China-Australia FTA onChina's dairy industry. The main contents include the following five aspects:
Firstly, Suppose Sino-Australia FTA established in2015, production and import tradeof dairy industry will be affected in China. On production, production of raw milk anddairy products will decline, and the prices of raw milk will rise slightly. About quantity, thenumber of dairy products imports from Australia will significantly increase (76.88%),while reducing from New Zealand (5.61%), the United States and the EU, but notmarginally decrease. In terms of price, the prices of dairy products import from Australia,New Zealand, the U.S. and the EU will be down, but the prices from Australia will largerdecrease. On market structure, although currently there is small dairy trade between Chinaand Australia, New Zealand and the United States are also Chinese leading origins. Dairytrade between China and Australia has the enormous potential with establishment of theChina-Australian FTA.
Secondly, China has taken a series of differentiated prices, investment and support policies in dairy industry in recent years, and the average production scale of dairy farm isfast expanding. Due to rising prices of raw material, production costs of large-scale farmare higher than household. The farm gate price of raw milk is gradually increasing.Consumption of liquid milk accounts for the production started to decline from2008, whileimports of dry dairy products increased significantly, and the prices rose rapidly. Chinesedairy import dependency and market concentration increased significantly, and the gap ofdairy imports from New Zealand and Australian widen. As the price of raw milk inAustralia is more than New Zealand, and the sheep industry are gradually restructuring tothe dairy industry, so the impact of imports of dairy products from Australia will not beoverlooked.
Thirdly, the results by gravity model analysis show that gross domestic product (GDP)and import tariffs on dairy products of China and its trade partners has a positive influenceon China imports of dairy products, and the influence of distances is limited. As well asdairy products’ tariffs being reducing as5%、10%、25%、50%and75%, the value of dairyproducts China imports from Australia will increasing17.54%、84.81%、264.38%and830.45%.If Sino-Australia FTA established in2015, the import value will reach between26.22and1930.99million dollars.
Fourthly, the simulation results by using GTAP model show that China dairy importsfrom Australia will increase large, and the exports will be increase slowly when2015China-Australia FTA established. The deficit pressures on dairy trade will be furtherexpanded between China and Australia. The quantity of dairy products imports fromAustralia will increase by33,200tons, while the value will increase by103.12millionUSD in2015. The value would reach284.80million USD, and it relatively closes to thepredictive value (207million USD) of gravity model when import tariff reduces to50%.While the prices from Australia will decline11.36%, namely3,727.75USD per ton, theprices are more competitive than New Zealand (4,474$/ton) in dairy exports to China.
Fifthly, expected Sino-Australia FTA established in2015, the price of raw milk inChina will reach692.71$/ton, while the price of raw milk in Australian will be434.09$/ton. The huge price gap will result in the serious challenges of Chinese large-scale dairyfarm, so the adjustment of dairy import tariffs must be treated with very caution inChina-Australia FTA negotiations. Take appropriate use of the "Amber box" policies andfull advantage of the "Green box" policies and measures to protect and support thesustainable development of China's dairy production. Chinese dairy companies shouldseize the opportunity to expand investment in Australia by direct or joint venturesinvestment and to fight directly involved in the Australian dairy production and export sector under the favorable terms of FTA.
引文
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