我国财务分析师盈余预测的有效性研究
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摘要
在现代证券市场中,财务分析师作为专业分析人员,为上市公司与普通投资者、债权人等外部利益相关者之间架起一座信息沟通的桥梁,无疑对降低信息不对称以及提高市场效率起着重要的作用。然而,财务分析师是否有能力作为一个积极的公司外部治理变量参与其中,这便涉及到财务分析师专业胜任能力的问题。一般来说,分析师的工作主要包括收集信息、解读与分析信息以及最终形成投资建议并以研究报告的形式反映出来。研究报告是分析师的最终产品,而其中的投资建议则是建立在盈余预测基础上的,可以说盈余预测是财务分析师职能的核心问题(Schipper,1991).因此,本文主要关注的也是分析师盈余预测的有效性问题。希望通过本文的研究,了解当前我国财务分析师的基本面分析能力,发现其中存在的问题并寻找解决问题的途径,进而发挥其对证券市场的积极作用。
本文的研究具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。从理论意义看,本文将基本面分析能力涵括于分析师盈余预测的有效性中,从而使得这一概念的内涵更加全面并更具有系统性。通过进一步的理论分析,提出了分析师盈余预测有效性的具体影响方式,进而从基本面分析的角度研究了财务分析师盈余预测的有效性。这不仅丰富了我国有关财务分析师盈余预测有效性的研究成果,而且完善了分析师基本面分析的研究体系。从实践价值看,财务分析师可以通过其优于一般投资者的信息收集途径和专业分析能力,向市场参与者提供合理反映证券内在价值的价格信息,从而减弱资本市场的价格偏离,促进市场的有效性。盈余预测是财务分析师职能的核心部分,而本文的研究也有助于解答当前我国财务分析师是否有能力参与公司外部治理以缓解信息不对称的问题。因此,对财务分析师盈余预测有效性的研究具有十分重要的现实意义。
本文所指的财务分析师盈余预测的有效性是指财务分析师能够尽可能多地收集到决策有用的信息,通过充分的解读和分析得出有信息含量的盈余预测结果,并在此基础上形成高水平的定价以及有价值的投资建议。这实质上是从信息源、分析过程和分析结果三方面对分析师提出了要求,是对分析师基本面分析能力的全面考虑,而不仅仅是其盈余预测结果的准确性以及投资建议是否具有超额收益,这也是本文与现有研究的主要不同之处。结合文献回顾和理论分析,本文对分析师盈余预测有效性的研究主要从其解读和分析信息的角度展开,并通过进一步的分析发现了两种在实证研究中可行的、影响财务分析师盈余预测有效性的方式。一是财务分析师能否区分出盈余构成的持续性差异；二是财务分析师对股票的定价是否代表着更高、更合理的水平,需要说明的是由于分析师乐观倾向的普遍存在,其公布的估值水平一般要高于股价实际走势,故本文所指的定价合理性并不是简单的一个价格数字,更多的是价格中所反映出来的信息。
在理论分析的基础上,本文进行了实证检验。实证研究表明,我国分析盈余预测的有效性不仅表现在能够在一定程度和一定条件下反映出盈余构成的持续性差异,还表现在对盈余构成的定价合理性要高于投资者。首先,总体而言,我国财务分析师盈余预测能够恰当地反映出应计利润和现金流量的持续性差异。在将盈余构成由应计利润和现金流量替换为暂时性盈余和永久性盈余后,财务分析师的盈余预测仍能反映出盈余构成之间的持续性差异。但将应计利润进一步分解为操控性应计利润和非操控性应计利润后,面对更为复杂的操控性应计利润,分析师功能锁定于总体样本的应计利润,不能对应计利润构成的持续性差异进行区分。只有在机构投资者持股比例高的样本中,财务分析师盈余预测才能恰当地反映出应计利润构成之间的持续性差异。其次,无论是在总样本,还是机构投资者持股比例高、低的样本,尽管相对于投资者,我国财务分析师对股票的定价与股票内在价值偏离程度更大,但这重偏离主要来自于账面净资产,财务分析师对于所有盈余构成的定价偏离都小于投资者的定价偏离。但相对于机构投资者持股比例低的样本,在机构投资者持股比例高的样本中,财务分析师对所有盈余构成的定价合理性比投资者要更高。
研究结论意味着财务分析师能在一定程度上认识到应计利润和现金流量之间的持续性是不同的,并能够在其发布的盈余预测中予以反映。但将应计利润进一步分解为操控性应计利润和非操控性应计利润,财务分析师只有在机构投资者持股比例高的样本中恰当地反映出应计利润构成之间的持续性差异。这表明财务分析师发布的盈余预测是有一定信息含量的,但应对复杂会计信息时表现不力,存在一定程度的“功能锁定”现象。同时,尽管财务分析师对盈余构成定价的合理性要高于投资者,但对于净资产定价的合理性偏低,这也造成了财务分析师对股价的定价偏离要大于投资者。虽然本文研究的是财务分析师盈余预测的有效性,对净资产的定价不准确并不影响本文的研究结论,但这也能反映出财务分析师的能力还是存在一定问题的。此外,在机构投资者持股比例高的上市公司中,国内很多研究都表明这些公司由于公司治理结构往往更加合理,信息的生成和披露环境也更加完善,这些都有利于财务分析师对信息进行更好地解读与分析,从而得出恰当的研究结论。
总之,尽管还存在不足,我国财务分析师盈余预测在一定程度上还是相对有效的。这种有效性体现于盈余预测具有一定的信息含量,能够在某种程度上反映出盈余构成的持续性差异,还体现于相对于投资者对盈余构成具有更高的定价合理性。分析师的这种基本面分析能力在我国投资者整体难以区分盈余构成持续性差异以及定价合理性偏低的情况下是有积极意义的,这为其在一定程度上参与公司治理,解决上市公司与投资者之间的信息不对称问题奠定了基础。
本文的研究创新和贡献主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)从解读和分析能力的角度研究了我国财务分析师盈余预测的有效性。目前关于财务分析师盈余预测的有效性侧重于对盈余预测的结果和基于盈余预测的估价和投资建议的研究,没有考虑到分析师解读和分析信息的过程,而这正是本文的研究视角。(2)提出了两种在实证研究中可行的、财务分析师盈余预测有效性的影响方式,即分析师对盈余构成的持续性差异区分以及对盈余构成定价的合理性,从而为从基本面分析的角度研究分析师盈余预测提供了一个可行的新视角。(3)为当前我国财务分析师是否能够参与上市公司外部治理以降低信息不对称和提高市场效率提供了经验证据。研究表明,财务分析师的盈余预测具有一定的信息含量,而对盈余构成的定价水平也比投资者更为合理,这意味着我国财务分析师具有一定的专业能力,能够在一定程度上参与公司外部治理。(4)有助于检验有效市场假说和功能锁定假说,为后者是否适用于财务分析师提供依据,并从财务分析师的角度对资本市场存在的“应计异象”进行解释。
In the modern securities market, as professionals who analyze and research all kinds of information about the listed companies using professional knowledge, financial analysts build up a bridge of information communication between listed companies and ordinary investors, creditors and other external stakeholders, which plays an important role in reducing information asymmetry and improving market efficiency unquestionably. However, it depends on financial analysts'professional competence whether they can play external positive role in corporate governance, and this is also the main question needs to be solved in this dissertation. Generally speaking, analysts'work mainly includes collecting information, interpreting and analyzing the information and forming the investment advice eventually revealed in the form of research report. Research report is the final product of analysts, of which investment advice is formed on the basis of earnings forecast. It can be said that earnings forecast is the core of the financial analysts'functions (Schipper,1991). Therefore, this dissertation mainly focuses on effectiveness of analysts'earnings forecast. The author hopes this dissertation can help us know about the fundamental analysis ability of financial analysts in current China, and find the problems and the solutions, and then make analysts play a positive role in securities market.
The study on the effectiveness of analysts'earnings forecast is not only a theoretical one in academic study but a practical application. Firstly, the definition of effectiveness of analysts'earnings forecast in this dissertation involves their fundamental analysis capability, which makes the connotation of this definition more comprehensive and systematic. And the dissertation gives rise to the specific ways of affecting the effectiveness of analysts' earnings forecast based on theoretical analysis; further studies it from the perspective of fundamental analysis. This not only enriches the research results of financial analysts' earnings forecast in China, but also improves the research system of analysts'fundamental analysis. Secondly, financial analysts can provide pricing information that can reasonably reflect the intrinsic value of the securities to market participants by their superior information collecting way and professional analysis capabilities. This help to weaken the deviation of price from intrinsic value and promote market effectiveness. Analysts'earnings forecast is a core part of the financial analysts'functions, and this study helps to answer the question whether financial analysts in China have the ability to participate in the external corporate governance to alleviate the information asymmetry. Therefore, this dissertation has a very important practical significance.
The effectiveness of analysts'earnings forecast referred in this dissertation means that financial analysts can collect useful information to make decision as much as possible, fully interpret and analyze the information, and obtain results with information content. On the basis of the above, they can form high level of pricing and valuable investment advice. In essence, this definition puts forward the request of analysts from the three aspects:source of information, process of analysis and result, which is a comprehensive consideration of their fundamental analysis ability, not just examining the accuracy of earnings forecast and whether investment advice could gain excess returns. Based on literature review and theoretical analysis, this dissertation considers that it is worth studying on the effectiveness of analyst earnings forecasts from the perspective of interpreting and analyzing information, and finds two feasible ways in empirical study to examine the effectiveness of analyst's earnings forecasts by further analysis. At first, whether earnings forecast can correctly reflect the different persistence of earnings components, including two levels of earnings components, earnings can be divided into accruals and cash flow, and then accruals can be further divided into discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals. On the second, whether analysts'pricing is more reasonable. It needs to be mentioned that valuation of analysts is usually higher than the actual share price due to their optimism bias, so the level of pricing referred in this dissertation is not just a simple number about price, but a lot depends on the information reflected from the price.
By theoretical analysis and empirical test, this dissertation concludes that:the effectiveness of financial analysts'earnings forecast is not only manifested that earnings forecast can correctly reflect the different persistence of earnings components to some extent on a certain conditions, but manifested that financial analysts' level of pricing earnings components is more reasonable than that of investors. Firstly, financial analysts' earnings forecast can correctly reflect the different persistence of accruals and cash flow, permanent earnings and temporary earnings. However, it can't properly reflect the difference between discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals. Only in the sample with higher shareholding percentage of institutional investors can earnings forecast correctly reflect the different persistence between discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals. Secondly, both in the total sample and sample with higher or lower shareholding percentage of institutional investors, there is a larger deviation from intrinsic value in analysts'pricing than in investors'pricing. However, the deviation is mainly caused by analysts'overstatement of net assets. When pricing earnings components, analysts' deviation is not larger than investors'.
These conclusions indicate that, to a certain extent, financial analysts can recognize the different persistence between accruals and cash flow, and can reflect this in their earnings forecast. When dealing with more complex discretionary accruals, only in the sample with higher shareholding percentage of institutional investors can earnings forecast correctly reflect the different persistence of accruals components. This means that there is certain information content in financial analysts'earnings forecast, but they fall some short when dealing with complex accounting information, and there is a certain degree of "functional fixation" for analysts. At the same time, although financial analysts'level of pricing earnings components is higher than investors', they are not reasonable than investors when pricing net assets, this is why deviation of analysts'pricing from intrinsic value is larger than investors'. Although this dissertation focuses on the effectiveness of the financial analysts'forecast earning, it does not affect the study conclusions to price net assets inaccurately, this reveals there are still some questions existed in the ability of financial analysts. In addition, in the sample with higher shareholding percentage of institutional investors, many domestic studies have shown that the environment of information generation and disclosure in these companies is more perfect due to more reasonable corporate governance structure. All of these could help financial analysts interpret and analyze information better, and then draw appropriate conclusions. Based on above analysis, some policy suggestions are put forward at last.
This study reveals that financial analysts'earnings forecast in China are relatively effective to some extent although they still have their own deficiencies. The effectiveness is reflected that earnings forecast has some information content and can reflect he different persistence of earnings components to some extent. At the same time, the efficiency is also reflected in analysts'higher level of pricing earnings components. This has a positive significance especially when it is difficult for investors to distinguish different persistence of earnings components. And this just lays a solid foundation for analysts to participate in corporate governance.
This dissertation may make some innovation and contribution in the following aspects:(1) studying on the effectiveness of financial analysts'earnings forecast from the perspective of their interpretation and analysis capabilities. At present, relevant studies focus on the earnings forecast number, valuation and investment recommendation based on earnings forecasts. And analysts'process of interoperating and analyzing information is not taken into account, which is just the perspective of this dissertation.(2) coming up with two feasible ways in empirical study to investigate the effectiveness of analyst earnings forecasts, namely, whether analyst can distinguish persistence difference of earnings components and reasonably price earnings components. This provide a new perspective for studying analysts'earnings forecasts based on fundamental analysis.(3)providing empirical evidence for whether our country's financial analysts could participate in external corporate governance to reduce information asymmetry and improve the efficiency of market. This study shows that there is some information content in financial analysts'earnings forecast, and they price earnings components more reasonably than investors, this means that financial analyst in China has a certain degree of professional competence, they can participate in the External Corporate Governance to some extent.(4) conductive to testing effective market hypothesis and functional fixation hypothesis, providing evidence for whether the latter is suitable for financial analysts, and explaining "accrual anomaly" existed on securities market from the view of the financial analysts.
本文的研究具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。从理论意义看,本文将基本面分析能力涵括于分析师盈余预测的有效性中,从而使得这一概念的内涵更加全面并更具有系统性。通过进一步的理论分析,提出了分析师盈余预测有效性的具体影响方式,进而从基本面分析的角度研究了财务分析师盈余预测的有效性。这不仅丰富了我国有关财务分析师盈余预测有效性的研究成果,而且完善了分析师基本面分析的研究体系。从实践价值看,财务分析师可以通过其优于一般投资者的信息收集途径和专业分析能力,向市场参与者提供合理反映证券内在价值的价格信息,从而减弱资本市场的价格偏离,促进市场的有效性。盈余预测是财务分析师职能的核心部分,而本文的研究也有助于解答当前我国财务分析师是否有能力参与公司外部治理以缓解信息不对称的问题。因此,对财务分析师盈余预测有效性的研究具有十分重要的现实意义。
本文所指的财务分析师盈余预测的有效性是指财务分析师能够尽可能多地收集到决策有用的信息,通过充分的解读和分析得出有信息含量的盈余预测结果,并在此基础上形成高水平的定价以及有价值的投资建议。这实质上是从信息源、分析过程和分析结果三方面对分析师提出了要求,是对分析师基本面分析能力的全面考虑,而不仅仅是其盈余预测结果的准确性以及投资建议是否具有超额收益,这也是本文与现有研究的主要不同之处。结合文献回顾和理论分析,本文对分析师盈余预测有效性的研究主要从其解读和分析信息的角度展开,并通过进一步的分析发现了两种在实证研究中可行的、影响财务分析师盈余预测有效性的方式。一是财务分析师能否区分出盈余构成的持续性差异；二是财务分析师对股票的定价是否代表着更高、更合理的水平,需要说明的是由于分析师乐观倾向的普遍存在,其公布的估值水平一般要高于股价实际走势,故本文所指的定价合理性并不是简单的一个价格数字,更多的是价格中所反映出来的信息。
在理论分析的基础上,本文进行了实证检验。实证研究表明,我国分析盈余预测的有效性不仅表现在能够在一定程度和一定条件下反映出盈余构成的持续性差异,还表现在对盈余构成的定价合理性要高于投资者。首先,总体而言,我国财务分析师盈余预测能够恰当地反映出应计利润和现金流量的持续性差异。在将盈余构成由应计利润和现金流量替换为暂时性盈余和永久性盈余后,财务分析师的盈余预测仍能反映出盈余构成之间的持续性差异。但将应计利润进一步分解为操控性应计利润和非操控性应计利润后,面对更为复杂的操控性应计利润,分析师功能锁定于总体样本的应计利润,不能对应计利润构成的持续性差异进行区分。只有在机构投资者持股比例高的样本中,财务分析师盈余预测才能恰当地反映出应计利润构成之间的持续性差异。其次,无论是在总样本,还是机构投资者持股比例高、低的样本,尽管相对于投资者,我国财务分析师对股票的定价与股票内在价值偏离程度更大,但这重偏离主要来自于账面净资产,财务分析师对于所有盈余构成的定价偏离都小于投资者的定价偏离。但相对于机构投资者持股比例低的样本,在机构投资者持股比例高的样本中,财务分析师对所有盈余构成的定价合理性比投资者要更高。
研究结论意味着财务分析师能在一定程度上认识到应计利润和现金流量之间的持续性是不同的,并能够在其发布的盈余预测中予以反映。但将应计利润进一步分解为操控性应计利润和非操控性应计利润,财务分析师只有在机构投资者持股比例高的样本中恰当地反映出应计利润构成之间的持续性差异。这表明财务分析师发布的盈余预测是有一定信息含量的,但应对复杂会计信息时表现不力,存在一定程度的“功能锁定”现象。同时,尽管财务分析师对盈余构成定价的合理性要高于投资者,但对于净资产定价的合理性偏低,这也造成了财务分析师对股价的定价偏离要大于投资者。虽然本文研究的是财务分析师盈余预测的有效性,对净资产的定价不准确并不影响本文的研究结论,但这也能反映出财务分析师的能力还是存在一定问题的。此外,在机构投资者持股比例高的上市公司中,国内很多研究都表明这些公司由于公司治理结构往往更加合理,信息的生成和披露环境也更加完善,这些都有利于财务分析师对信息进行更好地解读与分析,从而得出恰当的研究结论。
总之,尽管还存在不足,我国财务分析师盈余预测在一定程度上还是相对有效的。这种有效性体现于盈余预测具有一定的信息含量,能够在某种程度上反映出盈余构成的持续性差异,还体现于相对于投资者对盈余构成具有更高的定价合理性。分析师的这种基本面分析能力在我国投资者整体难以区分盈余构成持续性差异以及定价合理性偏低的情况下是有积极意义的,这为其在一定程度上参与公司治理,解决上市公司与投资者之间的信息不对称问题奠定了基础。
本文的研究创新和贡献主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)从解读和分析能力的角度研究了我国财务分析师盈余预测的有效性。目前关于财务分析师盈余预测的有效性侧重于对盈余预测的结果和基于盈余预测的估价和投资建议的研究,没有考虑到分析师解读和分析信息的过程,而这正是本文的研究视角。(2)提出了两种在实证研究中可行的、财务分析师盈余预测有效性的影响方式,即分析师对盈余构成的持续性差异区分以及对盈余构成定价的合理性,从而为从基本面分析的角度研究分析师盈余预测提供了一个可行的新视角。(3)为当前我国财务分析师是否能够参与上市公司外部治理以降低信息不对称和提高市场效率提供了经验证据。研究表明,财务分析师的盈余预测具有一定的信息含量,而对盈余构成的定价水平也比投资者更为合理,这意味着我国财务分析师具有一定的专业能力,能够在一定程度上参与公司外部治理。(4)有助于检验有效市场假说和功能锁定假说,为后者是否适用于财务分析师提供依据,并从财务分析师的角度对资本市场存在的“应计异象”进行解释。
In the modern securities market, as professionals who analyze and research all kinds of information about the listed companies using professional knowledge, financial analysts build up a bridge of information communication between listed companies and ordinary investors, creditors and other external stakeholders, which plays an important role in reducing information asymmetry and improving market efficiency unquestionably. However, it depends on financial analysts'professional competence whether they can play external positive role in corporate governance, and this is also the main question needs to be solved in this dissertation. Generally speaking, analysts'work mainly includes collecting information, interpreting and analyzing the information and forming the investment advice eventually revealed in the form of research report. Research report is the final product of analysts, of which investment advice is formed on the basis of earnings forecast. It can be said that earnings forecast is the core of the financial analysts'functions (Schipper,1991). Therefore, this dissertation mainly focuses on effectiveness of analysts'earnings forecast. The author hopes this dissertation can help us know about the fundamental analysis ability of financial analysts in current China, and find the problems and the solutions, and then make analysts play a positive role in securities market.
The study on the effectiveness of analysts'earnings forecast is not only a theoretical one in academic study but a practical application. Firstly, the definition of effectiveness of analysts'earnings forecast in this dissertation involves their fundamental analysis capability, which makes the connotation of this definition more comprehensive and systematic. And the dissertation gives rise to the specific ways of affecting the effectiveness of analysts' earnings forecast based on theoretical analysis; further studies it from the perspective of fundamental analysis. This not only enriches the research results of financial analysts' earnings forecast in China, but also improves the research system of analysts'fundamental analysis. Secondly, financial analysts can provide pricing information that can reasonably reflect the intrinsic value of the securities to market participants by their superior information collecting way and professional analysis capabilities. This help to weaken the deviation of price from intrinsic value and promote market effectiveness. Analysts'earnings forecast is a core part of the financial analysts'functions, and this study helps to answer the question whether financial analysts in China have the ability to participate in the external corporate governance to alleviate the information asymmetry. Therefore, this dissertation has a very important practical significance.
The effectiveness of analysts'earnings forecast referred in this dissertation means that financial analysts can collect useful information to make decision as much as possible, fully interpret and analyze the information, and obtain results with information content. On the basis of the above, they can form high level of pricing and valuable investment advice. In essence, this definition puts forward the request of analysts from the three aspects:source of information, process of analysis and result, which is a comprehensive consideration of their fundamental analysis ability, not just examining the accuracy of earnings forecast and whether investment advice could gain excess returns. Based on literature review and theoretical analysis, this dissertation considers that it is worth studying on the effectiveness of analyst earnings forecasts from the perspective of interpreting and analyzing information, and finds two feasible ways in empirical study to examine the effectiveness of analyst's earnings forecasts by further analysis. At first, whether earnings forecast can correctly reflect the different persistence of earnings components, including two levels of earnings components, earnings can be divided into accruals and cash flow, and then accruals can be further divided into discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals. On the second, whether analysts'pricing is more reasonable. It needs to be mentioned that valuation of analysts is usually higher than the actual share price due to their optimism bias, so the level of pricing referred in this dissertation is not just a simple number about price, but a lot depends on the information reflected from the price.
By theoretical analysis and empirical test, this dissertation concludes that:the effectiveness of financial analysts'earnings forecast is not only manifested that earnings forecast can correctly reflect the different persistence of earnings components to some extent on a certain conditions, but manifested that financial analysts' level of pricing earnings components is more reasonable than that of investors. Firstly, financial analysts' earnings forecast can correctly reflect the different persistence of accruals and cash flow, permanent earnings and temporary earnings. However, it can't properly reflect the difference between discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals. Only in the sample with higher shareholding percentage of institutional investors can earnings forecast correctly reflect the different persistence between discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals. Secondly, both in the total sample and sample with higher or lower shareholding percentage of institutional investors, there is a larger deviation from intrinsic value in analysts'pricing than in investors'pricing. However, the deviation is mainly caused by analysts'overstatement of net assets. When pricing earnings components, analysts' deviation is not larger than investors'.
These conclusions indicate that, to a certain extent, financial analysts can recognize the different persistence between accruals and cash flow, and can reflect this in their earnings forecast. When dealing with more complex discretionary accruals, only in the sample with higher shareholding percentage of institutional investors can earnings forecast correctly reflect the different persistence of accruals components. This means that there is certain information content in financial analysts'earnings forecast, but they fall some short when dealing with complex accounting information, and there is a certain degree of "functional fixation" for analysts. At the same time, although financial analysts'level of pricing earnings components is higher than investors', they are not reasonable than investors when pricing net assets, this is why deviation of analysts'pricing from intrinsic value is larger than investors'. Although this dissertation focuses on the effectiveness of the financial analysts'forecast earning, it does not affect the study conclusions to price net assets inaccurately, this reveals there are still some questions existed in the ability of financial analysts. In addition, in the sample with higher shareholding percentage of institutional investors, many domestic studies have shown that the environment of information generation and disclosure in these companies is more perfect due to more reasonable corporate governance structure. All of these could help financial analysts interpret and analyze information better, and then draw appropriate conclusions. Based on above analysis, some policy suggestions are put forward at last.
This study reveals that financial analysts'earnings forecast in China are relatively effective to some extent although they still have their own deficiencies. The effectiveness is reflected that earnings forecast has some information content and can reflect he different persistence of earnings components to some extent. At the same time, the efficiency is also reflected in analysts'higher level of pricing earnings components. This has a positive significance especially when it is difficult for investors to distinguish different persistence of earnings components. And this just lays a solid foundation for analysts to participate in corporate governance.
This dissertation may make some innovation and contribution in the following aspects:(1) studying on the effectiveness of financial analysts'earnings forecast from the perspective of their interpretation and analysis capabilities. At present, relevant studies focus on the earnings forecast number, valuation and investment recommendation based on earnings forecasts. And analysts'process of interoperating and analyzing information is not taken into account, which is just the perspective of this dissertation.(2) coming up with two feasible ways in empirical study to investigate the effectiveness of analyst earnings forecasts, namely, whether analyst can distinguish persistence difference of earnings components and reasonably price earnings components. This provide a new perspective for studying analysts'earnings forecasts based on fundamental analysis.(3)providing empirical evidence for whether our country's financial analysts could participate in external corporate governance to reduce information asymmetry and improve the efficiency of market. This study shows that there is some information content in financial analysts'earnings forecast, and they price earnings components more reasonably than investors, this means that financial analyst in China has a certain degree of professional competence, they can participate in the External Corporate Governance to some extent.(4) conductive to testing effective market hypothesis and functional fixation hypothesis, providing evidence for whether the latter is suitable for financial analysts, and explaining "accrual anomaly" existed on securities market from the view of the financial analysts.
引文
①本文对逆向选择和道德风险模型的介绍主要参考了杨瑞龙和杨其静主编的《企业理论：现代观点》。杨瑞龙和杨其静.企业理论：现代观点.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
①这主要是因为在计算操控性应计利润时需要行业回归,观测数应该在自变量数的20倍以上,少于此数则可能出现检验效能不足的问题(张文彤,2004)。详见：张文彤.SPSS统计分析高级教程[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2004.
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