城市配电网综合评价体系研究
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摘要
随着我国经济社会的不断发展,对电网建设认识的不断深入,配电网在电力系统中的地位逐渐受到重视。配电网建设发展水平直接影响电力用户的用电质量,同时也是节能降耗的关键所在。而由于我国城市配电网发展建设仍存在较多问题,因此如何指导配电网发展、配电网建设发展更具效率受到关注。对配电网发展水平进行综合评价,建立一套科学合理、行之有效的配电网综合评价体系在分析配电网所存在的薄弱环节、确定配电网发展方向上具有重要意义。
论文针对以往配电网评价体系未能全面包涵高中压且因指标着眼点较细不适合不同城市配电网之间横对比的问题,建立一套普遍适用的综合评价体系,主要工作如下:
(1)从电网利益相关者需求出发,利用鱼骨图分析法从较宏观层面分析影响配电网建设的关键要素,采用层次分析法建立全面反映配电网建设内容和特点的综合评价指标体系层次结构;
(2)采用德尔菲法建立统一标准的指标权重;
(3)利用德尔菲法,找出指标值与评价分数之间相对关系,并进行二次曲线拟合得到贴合指标建设特点并且合理反映不同指标之间评分差异的平滑化的指标评分判据,从而形成完整的配电网综合评价体系。
通过对所选取的实际城市配电网案例进行评价,验证论文所建立的配电网综合评价体系能够合理反映配电网的整体发展水平,横向对比不同配电网的优劣,并找出各个配电网的薄弱环节,为配电网的规划、建设和发展奠定基础。
The position of distribution network in power system is increasing with the development of economic and social of China, as well as the expansion of the power grid construction. Distribution networks construction level influence the power quality of customers, and also the key to reducing consumption. As China's urban distribution network is still exists many problems in development and construction, how to guide the distribution network construction efficiently is paid a lot attention to. So it’s great essential that researching on the distribution networks development level and building a reasonable and effective comprehensive evaluation system which can analysis the weak links existed in distribution networks.
As the result, Comprehensive evaluation system of urban distribution network which could be widely used is proposed to solve the problem emerging from present evaluation system which is lack of a evaluation system which can be used to compare high and middle voltage distribution network laterally. The main work is as following:
(1) Considering the need of power network stakeholders, key factors of power network construction are analyzed by fishbone diagram, and analysis hierarchy process is used to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system which completely reflect the construction contents and characteristics of distribution network;
(2) The weights of index are given by Delphi so unified standard of weights can be constructed
(3) Delphi is also used to find the relation between index value and evaluation score, and smooth index score function which fits the construction feature is obtained by setting index evaluation criterion and curve fitting to it. So far the comprehensive evaluation system is formed.
By evaluating nine urban distribution networks, this comprehensive evaluation system is verified to reflect the development level of distribution networks. Different urban distribution networks can be compared with each other to find the strength and weakness, which can lay a foundation for distribution networks planning, construction and development.
论文针对以往配电网评价体系未能全面包涵高中压且因指标着眼点较细不适合不同城市配电网之间横对比的问题,建立一套普遍适用的综合评价体系,主要工作如下:
(1)从电网利益相关者需求出发,利用鱼骨图分析法从较宏观层面分析影响配电网建设的关键要素,采用层次分析法建立全面反映配电网建设内容和特点的综合评价指标体系层次结构;
(2)采用德尔菲法建立统一标准的指标权重;
(3)利用德尔菲法,找出指标值与评价分数之间相对关系,并进行二次曲线拟合得到贴合指标建设特点并且合理反映不同指标之间评分差异的平滑化的指标评分判据,从而形成完整的配电网综合评价体系。
通过对所选取的实际城市配电网案例进行评价,验证论文所建立的配电网综合评价体系能够合理反映配电网的整体发展水平,横向对比不同配电网的优劣,并找出各个配电网的薄弱环节,为配电网的规划、建设和发展奠定基础。
The position of distribution network in power system is increasing with the development of economic and social of China, as well as the expansion of the power grid construction. Distribution networks construction level influence the power quality of customers, and also the key to reducing consumption. As China's urban distribution network is still exists many problems in development and construction, how to guide the distribution network construction efficiently is paid a lot attention to. So it’s great essential that researching on the distribution networks development level and building a reasonable and effective comprehensive evaluation system which can analysis the weak links existed in distribution networks.
As the result, Comprehensive evaluation system of urban distribution network which could be widely used is proposed to solve the problem emerging from present evaluation system which is lack of a evaluation system which can be used to compare high and middle voltage distribution network laterally. The main work is as following:
(1) Considering the need of power network stakeholders, key factors of power network construction are analyzed by fishbone diagram, and analysis hierarchy process is used to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system which completely reflect the construction contents and characteristics of distribution network;
(2) The weights of index are given by Delphi so unified standard of weights can be constructed
(3) Delphi is also used to find the relation between index value and evaluation score, and smooth index score function which fits the construction feature is obtained by setting index evaluation criterion and curve fitting to it. So far the comprehensive evaluation system is formed.
By evaluating nine urban distribution networks, this comprehensive evaluation system is verified to reflect the development level of distribution networks. Different urban distribution networks can be compared with each other to find the strength and weakness, which can lay a foundation for distribution networks planning, construction and development.
引文
[1]陈章潮,程浩忠,城市电网规划与改造,北京:中国电力出版社,2007
[2]管林,冯奎,刘莎,等,大规模配电网可靠性指标的近似估测算法,中国电机工程学报,2006,26(10):92~98
[3]颜秋容,曾庆辉,多重故障对配电网可靠性指标的影响度,电网技术,2010,34(8):108~111
[4] Billinton R, Wang P, Reliability-network-equivalent approach to distribution system reliability evaluation, IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution,1998,145(2):149~153
[5]宋云亭,张东霞,梁才浩,等,南方电网“十一五”城市供电可靠性规划,电网技术,2009,33(8):48~54
[6]宋云亭,张东霞,吴俊玲,等,国内外城市配电网供电可靠性对比分析,电网技术,2008,32(23):13~18
[7]杨明海,刘洪,王成山,等,中压配电系统供电模型研究,北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(4):382~386
[8]张永伍,变电站选址定容优化规划:[硕士学位论文],天津,天津大学,2005
[9]陆志峰,周家启,计及开关和母线故障的配电系统可靠性评估,电网技术,2002,26(4):26~29
[10]万国成,任震,田翔,配电网可靠性评估的网络等值法模型研究,中国电机工程学报,2003,23(5):48~52
[11]丁明,张静,李生虎,基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的配电网可靠性评估模型,电网技术,2004,28(3):38~42
[12]谢莹华,王成山,基于馈线分区的中压配电系统可靠性评估,中国电机工程学报,2004,24(5):35~39
[13]王成山,谢莹华,基于双层同构贝叶斯网络模型的配电网可靠性评估,电网技术,2005,29(7):38~42
[14]刘伟,郭志忠,配电网安全性指标的研究,中国电机工程学报,2003,23(8):85~90
[15]刘若溪,张建华,吴迪,基于风险理论的配电网静态安全性评估指标研究,电力系统保护与控制,2011,39(15):89~95
[16]顾伟,蒋平,蔡桂龙,地区电能质量评估及综合治理研究,电力需求侧管理,2003,5(2):20~23
[17]刘颖英,徐永海,肖湘宁,地区电网电能质量综合评估新方法,中国电机工程学报,2008,28(22):130~136
[18]张蔓,林涛,曹健,理想区间法在电能质量综合评估中的应用,电网技术,2009,33(3):33~38
[19]李欣然,刘杨华,朱湘有,等,高压配电网建设规模的评估指标体系及其应用研究,中国电机工程学报,2006,26(17):18~24
[20]李欣然,李培强,朱湘有,等,基于最优化原理的高压配电网建设规模评估,电力系统自动化,2007,31(4):46~50
[21]肖峻,王成山,周敏,提基于区间层次分析法的城市电网规划综合评判决策,中国电机工程学报,2004,24(4):50~57
[22]肖峻,高海霞,葛少云,等,城市中压配电网评估方法与实例研究,网技术,2005,29(20):77~81
[23]肖峻,崔艳妍,王建民,配电网规划的综合评价指标体系与方法,电力系统自动化,2008,32(15):36~40
[24]万卫,王淳,程虹,等,电网评价指标体系的初步框架,电力系统保护与控制,2008,36(24):14~18
[25]胡永宏,贺思辉,综合评价方法,北京:科学出版社,2000
[26]苏为华,多指标综合评价理论与方法研究,北京:中国物价出版社,2001
[27]秦寿康,综合评价原理与应用,北京:电子工业出版社,2003
[28]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎,现代综合评价方法与案例精选(第2版),北京:清华大学出版社,2008
[29]张于心,智明光,综合评价指标体系和评价方法,北方交通大学学报,1995,19(3):393~400
[30]郭亚军,多属性综合评价,沈阳:东北大学出版社,1996
[31]郭亚军,综合评价理论,方法及应用,北京:科学出版社,2007
[32]李亮,评价中权系数理论与方法比较:[硕士学位论文],上海:上海交通大学,2009
[33]毛保华,评价指标体系分析及其权重系数的确定,系统工程,1991(4):37~42
[34]陈国宏,陈衍泰,李美娟,组合评价系统综合研究,复旦学报(自然科学版),2003,42(5):667~672
[35]王浣尘,陈宏民,关于Delphi的若干理论问题,控制与决策,1986(02),46~49
[36]郑照宁,武玉英,包涵龄.用鱼骨图与层次分析法结合进行企业诊断.中国软科学,2001,1:118-121
[37]皮圣雷,综合鱼骨图及其在项目管理中的应用研究,中国软科学,2009(4):92-97.
[38]罗宜美,黄胜延,曹式有,改进鱼骨图在生产管理中的应用,工业工程,2007,10(2):138~141
[39]唐慧,区域电网智能化发展水平综合评价研:[博士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2011
[40]陈大宇,肖峻,王成山,基于模糊层次分析法的城市电网规划决策综合评判电力系统及其自动化学报,2003,(4):79~80
[41] M. McGranaghan, F. Goodman,Technical and System Requirements of Advanced Distribution Automation, 18th International Conference on Electricity Distribution,2005
[42]朱建军,层次分析法的若干问题研究及应用:[博士学位论文],沈阳:东北大学,2005
[43]倪敬敏,何光宇,沈沉,等,美国智能电网评估综述,电力系统自动化,2010,34(8):9~13
[44]王智冬,李晖,李隽,等,智能电网的评估指标体系,电网技术,2009,33(17):14~18
[45]范明天,张祖平,中国配电网发展战略相关问题研究,北京:中国电力出版社,2008
[2]管林,冯奎,刘莎,等,大规模配电网可靠性指标的近似估测算法,中国电机工程学报,2006,26(10):92~98
[3]颜秋容,曾庆辉,多重故障对配电网可靠性指标的影响度,电网技术,2010,34(8):108~111
[4] Billinton R, Wang P, Reliability-network-equivalent approach to distribution system reliability evaluation, IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution,1998,145(2):149~153
[5]宋云亭,张东霞,梁才浩,等,南方电网“十一五”城市供电可靠性规划,电网技术,2009,33(8):48~54
[6]宋云亭,张东霞,吴俊玲,等,国内外城市配电网供电可靠性对比分析,电网技术,2008,32(23):13~18
[7]杨明海,刘洪,王成山,等,中压配电系统供电模型研究,北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(4):382~386
[8]张永伍,变电站选址定容优化规划:[硕士学位论文],天津,天津大学,2005
[9]陆志峰,周家启,计及开关和母线故障的配电系统可靠性评估,电网技术,2002,26(4):26~29
[10]万国成,任震,田翔,配电网可靠性评估的网络等值法模型研究,中国电机工程学报,2003,23(5):48~52
[11]丁明,张静,李生虎,基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的配电网可靠性评估模型,电网技术,2004,28(3):38~42
[12]谢莹华,王成山,基于馈线分区的中压配电系统可靠性评估,中国电机工程学报,2004,24(5):35~39
[13]王成山,谢莹华,基于双层同构贝叶斯网络模型的配电网可靠性评估,电网技术,2005,29(7):38~42
[14]刘伟,郭志忠,配电网安全性指标的研究,中国电机工程学报,2003,23(8):85~90
[15]刘若溪,张建华,吴迪,基于风险理论的配电网静态安全性评估指标研究,电力系统保护与控制,2011,39(15):89~95
[16]顾伟,蒋平,蔡桂龙,地区电能质量评估及综合治理研究,电力需求侧管理,2003,5(2):20~23
[17]刘颖英,徐永海,肖湘宁,地区电网电能质量综合评估新方法,中国电机工程学报,2008,28(22):130~136
[18]张蔓,林涛,曹健,理想区间法在电能质量综合评估中的应用,电网技术,2009,33(3):33~38
[19]李欣然,刘杨华,朱湘有,等,高压配电网建设规模的评估指标体系及其应用研究,中国电机工程学报,2006,26(17):18~24
[20]李欣然,李培强,朱湘有,等,基于最优化原理的高压配电网建设规模评估,电力系统自动化,2007,31(4):46~50
[21]肖峻,王成山,周敏,提基于区间层次分析法的城市电网规划综合评判决策,中国电机工程学报,2004,24(4):50~57
[22]肖峻,高海霞,葛少云,等,城市中压配电网评估方法与实例研究,网技术,2005,29(20):77~81
[23]肖峻,崔艳妍,王建民,配电网规划的综合评价指标体系与方法,电力系统自动化,2008,32(15):36~40
[24]万卫,王淳,程虹,等,电网评价指标体系的初步框架,电力系统保护与控制,2008,36(24):14~18
[25]胡永宏,贺思辉,综合评价方法,北京:科学出版社,2000
[26]苏为华,多指标综合评价理论与方法研究,北京:中国物价出版社,2001
[27]秦寿康,综合评价原理与应用,北京:电子工业出版社,2003
[28]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎,现代综合评价方法与案例精选(第2版),北京:清华大学出版社,2008
[29]张于心,智明光,综合评价指标体系和评价方法,北方交通大学学报,1995,19(3):393~400
[30]郭亚军,多属性综合评价,沈阳:东北大学出版社,1996
[31]郭亚军,综合评价理论,方法及应用,北京:科学出版社,2007
[32]李亮,评价中权系数理论与方法比较:[硕士学位论文],上海:上海交通大学,2009
[33]毛保华,评价指标体系分析及其权重系数的确定,系统工程,1991(4):37~42
[34]陈国宏,陈衍泰,李美娟,组合评价系统综合研究,复旦学报(自然科学版),2003,42(5):667~672
[35]王浣尘,陈宏民,关于Delphi的若干理论问题,控制与决策,1986(02),46~49
[36]郑照宁,武玉英,包涵龄.用鱼骨图与层次分析法结合进行企业诊断.中国软科学,2001,1:118-121
[37]皮圣雷,综合鱼骨图及其在项目管理中的应用研究,中国软科学,2009(4):92-97.
[38]罗宜美,黄胜延,曹式有,改进鱼骨图在生产管理中的应用,工业工程,2007,10(2):138~141
[39]唐慧,区域电网智能化发展水平综合评价研:[博士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2011
[40]陈大宇,肖峻,王成山,基于模糊层次分析法的城市电网规划决策综合评判电力系统及其自动化学报,2003,(4):79~80
[41] M. McGranaghan, F. Goodman,Technical and System Requirements of Advanced Distribution Automation, 18th International Conference on Electricity Distribution,2005
[42]朱建军,层次分析法的若干问题研究及应用:[博士学位论文],沈阳:东北大学,2005
[43]倪敬敏,何光宇,沈沉,等,美国智能电网评估综述,电力系统自动化,2010,34(8):9~13
[44]王智冬,李晖,李隽,等,智能电网的评估指标体系,电网技术,2009,33(17):14~18
[45]范明天,张祖平,中国配电网发展战略相关问题研究,北京:中国电力出版社,2008