配电网降损规划经济性评估体系研究与应用
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摘要
电网降损规划工作已逐步开展，但目前的降损规划仍不完善。电网降损规划方案是否优化经济，是否满足项目的投资准则，如何量化描述电网降损规划后的改造实施效果等问题急需解决。
首先，阐明了配电网降损规划方案的可行性研究的作用、类型、内容和研究步骤；分析了评价指标的构建原则、筛选原则，并对指标进行了若干预处理。确定了指标的赋权方法和规划方案的评估方法。给出了一套适用于配电网降损规划特点的评估流程与技术经济评价指标体系。应用模糊综合评价方法量化了各个方案以及各方案中指标的优劣。通过对算例中两个规划方案与现状电网之间的对比，能够发现现状电网存在的问题和规划电网改造后的实施效果。该评估体系既适用于单方案评估，也适用于多方案评估，为实际工程中方案的决策以及配电网降损规划提供了帮助。
其次，电力技术经济分析评价的依据资料由于种种主客观原因而难免有所偏差，本文选用了盈亏平衡分析作为不确定性分析的主要衡量指标，对影响最终决策方案的敏感性因素进行了详细的计算分析。
最后，结合电网降损规划方案的技术经济性特点，详细的分析并介绍了电网评价系统的主要功能及其实现，给出了该软件的主要算法。该系统既能对规划方案进行评价，也能对技术运行进行评价。对输电网和配电网的评价同样适用，大大提高了电网评价的灵活性，满足实际的工程需要。
Power network loss reduction planning work has been carried out gradually, but theloss reduction planning is still not perfect. The following issues need to be resolved:whether the power network loss reduction planning program is optimized and economic;whether it meets the project investment criteria; how to quantify the implementation effectof power grid loss reduction planning.
Firstly, the feasibility study’s effect, style, content and steps of distribution networkloss reduction planning program are clarified. The construction principle and screeningprinciple of the evaluation indicators are established. At the same time, a number ofpretreatment of indicators is made. Empowerment of the indicators and evaluation methodis chosen. The assessment process and economic evaluation index system applicable to thedistribution network loss reduction planning characteristics are given. FuzzyComprehensive Evaluation Method is used to quantify the advantages and disadvantagesof various programs as well as indicators. By contrast between the two planning programwith the status quo power network of the example can find the problems of the status quopower network and implementation results of the power network planning, andsuggestions for improvement in planning and transformation are given. The evaluationsystem is not only suitable for single program assessment, but also suitable formulti-program evaluation. This is to provide help for practical engineering programdecision-making and distribution network loss reduction planning.
Secondly, the basis information of power techno-economic analysis and evaluationwill inevitably have a deviation due to various objective and subjective reasons. Thebreak-even analysis is selected as a measure of the uncertainty analysis. Sensitive factorsthat affect the final decision-making program are carried out a detailed computationalanalysis.
Finally, combined with the technical and economic characteristics of power networkloss reduction planning programs, the main function of the power network evaluationsystem and its implementation is analyzed and described in detail; the software algorithm is given too. This system can not only make an evaluation on planning program, but alsomake an evaluation on technical operation, applies equally to the evaluation oftransmission and distribution network. The flexibility of power network evaluation isgreatly improved, meeting the actual needs of the project.
首先，阐明了配电网降损规划方案的可行性研究的作用、类型、内容和研究步骤；分析了评价指标的构建原则、筛选原则，并对指标进行了若干预处理。确定了指标的赋权方法和规划方案的评估方法。给出了一套适用于配电网降损规划特点的评估流程与技术经济评价指标体系。应用模糊综合评价方法量化了各个方案以及各方案中指标的优劣。通过对算例中两个规划方案与现状电网之间的对比，能够发现现状电网存在的问题和规划电网改造后的实施效果。该评估体系既适用于单方案评估，也适用于多方案评估，为实际工程中方案的决策以及配电网降损规划提供了帮助。
其次，电力技术经济分析评价的依据资料由于种种主客观原因而难免有所偏差，本文选用了盈亏平衡分析作为不确定性分析的主要衡量指标，对影响最终决策方案的敏感性因素进行了详细的计算分析。
最后，结合电网降损规划方案的技术经济性特点，详细的分析并介绍了电网评价系统的主要功能及其实现，给出了该软件的主要算法。该系统既能对规划方案进行评价，也能对技术运行进行评价。对输电网和配电网的评价同样适用，大大提高了电网评价的灵活性，满足实际的工程需要。
Power network loss reduction planning work has been carried out gradually, but theloss reduction planning is still not perfect. The following issues need to be resolved:whether the power network loss reduction planning program is optimized and economic;whether it meets the project investment criteria; how to quantify the implementation effectof power grid loss reduction planning.
Firstly, the feasibility study’s effect, style, content and steps of distribution networkloss reduction planning program are clarified. The construction principle and screeningprinciple of the evaluation indicators are established. At the same time, a number ofpretreatment of indicators is made. Empowerment of the indicators and evaluation methodis chosen. The assessment process and economic evaluation index system applicable to thedistribution network loss reduction planning characteristics are given. FuzzyComprehensive Evaluation Method is used to quantify the advantages and disadvantagesof various programs as well as indicators. By contrast between the two planning programwith the status quo power network of the example can find the problems of the status quopower network and implementation results of the power network planning, andsuggestions for improvement in planning and transformation are given. The evaluationsystem is not only suitable for single program assessment, but also suitable formulti-program evaluation. This is to provide help for practical engineering programdecision-making and distribution network loss reduction planning.
Secondly, the basis information of power techno-economic analysis and evaluationwill inevitably have a deviation due to various objective and subjective reasons. Thebreak-even analysis is selected as a measure of the uncertainty analysis. Sensitive factorsthat affect the final decision-making program are carried out a detailed computationalanalysis.
Finally, combined with the technical and economic characteristics of power networkloss reduction planning programs, the main function of the power network evaluationsystem and its implementation is analyzed and described in detail; the software algorithm is given too. This system can not only make an evaluation on planning program, but alsomake an evaluation on technical operation, applies equally to the evaluation oftransmission and distribution network. The flexibility of power network evaluation isgreatly improved, meeting the actual needs of the project.
引文
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[32] Duarte S X, Kagan N. A Power-Quality Index to Assess the Impact of Voltage HarmonicDistortions and Unbalance to Three-Phase Induction Motors[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,2010, 25(3): 1846-1854.
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[37]贺静,韦钢,张一尘,等.电网规划方案经济评估方法研究[J].华东电力, 2004, 32(7):421-424.
[38] Su Chun-Lien, Teng Jen-Hao. Economic Evaluation of a Distribution Automation Project[J]. IEEETrans on Industry Applications, 2007, 43(6): 1417-1425.
[39]任懿静.输变电项目经济效益评价方法研究.保定:华北电力大学硕士学位论文, 2010: 6-20.
[40] Taylor J W , McSharry P E . Short-Term Load Forecasting Methods: An Evaluation Based onEuropean Data[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems, 2007, 22(4): 2213-2219.
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[2]周士跃.电力网电能损耗在线计算与分析系统[J].电网技术, 2007, 31(9): 88-90.
[3]陈立军.惠东2005-2010年线损规划的研究[D].广州:华南理工大学硕士学位论文, 2006:1-10.
[4] Buygi M O, Shanechi H M, Balzer G, et al. Network Planning in Unbundled Power Systems[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems, 2006, 21(3): 1379-1387.
[5] Kwasinski A. Technology Planning for Electric Power Supply in Critical Events Considering aBulk Grid, Backup Power Plants, and Micro-Grids[J]. IEEE Trans on Systems Journal, 2010, 4(2):167-178.
[6] Arefi A, Haghifam M R, Yavartalab A, et al.Loss Reduction Planning in Electric DistributionNetworks of IRAN until 2025[C]. IEEE Electrical Power Distribution Networks Meeting, BandarAbbas, Iran, 2011: 1-6.
[7]朱旭凯,刘文颖,杨以涵.综合考虑可靠性因素的电网规划新方法[J].电网技术, 2004,28(21): 51-54.
[8]田廓,邱柳青,曾鸣.基于动态碳排放价格的电网规划模型[J].中国电机工程学报, 2012,32(4): 57-64.
[9]张建平,胡建绩.面向智能电网的多适应性规划体系设计[J].电力系统自动化, 2011, 35(10):1-7.
[10]王赛一,王成山.遗传禁忌混合算法及其在电网规划中的应用[J].电力系统自动化, 2004,28(20): 43-46.
[11]高赐威,程浩忠,王旭.考虑场景发生概率的柔性约束电网规划模型[J].中国电机工程学报.2004, 24(11): 34-48.
[12] Q/GDW 156-2006,城市电力网规划设计导则[S].
[13]国家电网公司发展策划部,中国电力科学研究院,国网北京经济技术研究院.国家电网公司城市电力网规划设计导则[Z].北京:国家电网公司发展策划部, 1993.
[14]郑建锋.衢州地区三年降损规划[D].杭州:浙江大学硕士学位论文, 2009: 9-32.
[15]肖峻,崔艳妍,王建民,等.配电网规划的综合评价指标体系与方法[J].电力系统自动化,2008, 32(15): 36-40.
[16]王伟,张粒子,麻秀范.基于模糊综合评价的结构元中压配电网规划[J].电力系统自动化,2006, 30(12): 42-46.
[17]聂宏展,吕盼,乔怡,等.基于熵权法的输电网规划方案模糊综合评价[J].电网技术, 2009,33(11): 60-64.
[18]肖峻,王成山,周敏.基于区间层次分析法的城市电网规划综合评判决策[J].中国电机工程学报, 2004, 24(4): 50-57.
[19] Jalilzadeh S, Kazemi A, Shayeghi H, et al. Technical and Economic Evaluation of Voltage Level inTransmission Network Expansion Planning Using GA[J]. IEEE Trans on Energy Conversion andManagement, 2008, 49(5): 1119-1125.
[20] Li Weixing, Wang Peng, Li Zhimin, et al. Reliability Evaluation of Complex Radial DistributionSystems Considering Restoration Sequence and Network Constrains[J]. IEEE Trans on PowerDelivery, 2004, 19(2): 753-758.
[21]李欣然,刘杨华,朱湘有,等.高压配电网建设规模的评估指标体系及其应用研究[J].中国电机工程学报, 2006, 26(17): 18-24.
[22]张文泉.电力技术经济评价理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社, 2004: 35-177.
[23]李渝.输电网规划方案经济评价方法的研究[D].北京:华北电力大学硕士学位论文, 2007:5-24.
[24]王伟,李笑蓉.城网规划技术经济综合评价研究[J].华北电力技术, 2009, (8): 27-31.
[25]蒋鹏.电网规划方案技术经济评价方法研究[D].上海:上海交通大学硕士学位论文, 2010:2-34.
[26] Galli S, Scaglione A, Zhifang Wang. For the Grid and Through the Grid: The Role of Power LineCommunications in the Smart Grid[J]. IEEE Trans on Proceedings of the IEEE, 2011, 99(6):998-1027.
[27] Abrahamsson L, S der L. Fast Estimation of Relations between Aggregated Train Power SystemData and Traffic Performance[J]. IEEE Trans on Vehicular Technology, 2011, 60(1): 16-29.
[28]刘璐洁,胡荣,符杨,等.基于节约理念的配电网规划方案综合评价[J].电网技术, 2008,32(16): 66-70.
[29]何永秀.电力综合评价方法及应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社, 2011: 3-133.
[30]丘亮,林韩,温步瀛,等.供电模型技术经济特性评估[J].电力与电工, 2011, 31(3): 1-6.
[31] Lee Soon, Park Jung-Wook, Venayagamoorthy G K. New Power Quality Index in a DistributionPower System by Using RMP Model[J]. IEEE Trans on Industry Applications, 2010, 46(3):1204-1211.
[32] Duarte S X, Kagan N. A Power-Quality Index to Assess the Impact of Voltage HarmonicDistortions and Unbalance to Three-Phase Induction Motors[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,2010, 25(3): 1846-1854.
[33]钟慧荣,顾雪平.基于模糊层次分析法的黑启动方案评估及灵敏度分析[J].电力系统自动化,2010, 34(16): 34-37.
[34] Wang D T C, Ochoa L F, Harrison G P. Modified GA and Data Envelopment Analysis forMultistage Distribution Network Expansion Planning Under Uncertainty[J]. IEEE Trans on PowerSystems, 2011, 26(2): 897-904.
[35]王佳贤.城市配电网经济性评估研究[D].上海:上海交通大学硕士学位论文, 2008: 2-11.
[36]张勇军,刘瀚林,蒋金良.主网与配电网协调规划的评价指标和规划方法[J].电力系统自动化, 2010, 34(15): 37-41.
[37]贺静,韦钢,张一尘,等.电网规划方案经济评估方法研究[J].华东电力, 2004, 32(7):421-424.
[38] Su Chun-Lien, Teng Jen-Hao. Economic Evaluation of a Distribution Automation Project[J]. IEEETrans on Industry Applications, 2007, 43(6): 1417-1425.
[39]任懿静.输变电项目经济效益评价方法研究.保定:华北电力大学硕士学位论文, 2010: 6-20.
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