广州服装物流中心的建设研究
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摘要
当今世界经济发展呈现出区域经济一体化和经济全球化两种趋势。经济全球化必然导致市场的开放,在中国首先开放的是制造业领域;制造业全球化必然导致制造业向成本最低的区域转移。因而,世界制造中心正逐步转移到中国,其中服装制造业成为了焦点,中国已成为全世界最大的服装生产加工基地,全世界每三件服装,其中就有一件产自于中国。
在经济全球化的浪潮中,我国服装行业正面临新的发展形势,服装企业的逐渐增多,服装批发市场的蓬勃发展,服装采购商从世界各地纷至沓来,由此使得服装物流活动变得日益频繁,服务功能、服务形式呈现出多样化。如何组织、控制和协调区域中服装物流服务提供商,如何提高仓储、运输、分拣等物流设备和资源的处理能力和对物流活动的计划、组织与控制的能力,来达到缩短物流距离、减少物流时间、降低物流费用,以提升整个区域的服装物流服务能力,已成为服装行业快速、稳定、持续、健康发展所亟待解决的问题,现代物流在服装行业中的作用日益凸现。因此,研究服装业和物流业的整合和优化,对服装业和物流业的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文以广东省作为研究对象,围绕广东省服装业和服装物流业的发展现状和发展需求,从广州白马服装批发市场视角,运用定性和定量相结合的分析方法,提出建设广州服装物流中心的建议,并给出建设方案和运营方案,希望为广州乃至广东服装物流业的发展提供一定的参考,为政府和企业决策提供一定的依据。本文重点做了以下几个方面的工作:
第一,从行业规模和经济效益两个角度概述了广东服装行业发展状况;用相关系数和弹性系数等定量分析方法分析了广东服装业和物流业之间的相互关系;对比分析了服装物流需求预测的三种方法:回归预测法、三次指数平滑法和灰色预测法;在此基础上,基于误差的占比大小构建了组合预测模型,验证了广东服装物流的需求,并从预测模型和预测数量两个方面,进行了结果分析。
第二,以广州白马服装批发市场为例,分析了广州服装物流业的现状和在发展中存在的问题;指出广州服装物流业发展的四个阶段性趋势,依次为物流基础设施提供阶段,综合服务阶段,信息中心阶段和供应链整合平台阶段;在此基础上,运用模糊综合评价模型,定量评价了广州服装物流业发展所处的阶段,从而得出建设广州服装物流中心的必要性和可行性。
第三,从功能区建设和信息化建设两个方面给出服装物流中心的建设方案,尤其提到了电子商务的建设。
第四,给出了广州服装物流中心的具体开发建设模式和运营管理模式,投资估算与资金筹措,并对中心建成之后的盈利模式进行了财务敏感性分析。在此基础上,分析了服装物流中心的投资收益和社会效益。
根据研究结果可知,广州服装物流中心的建设是必要和可行的,对改善广州的服装物流环境,提高广州的服装物流能力,更好的促进服装行业发展具有一定的指导作用。
Economic development in the world today has shown two trends: the integration of regional economy and economic globalization. Economic globalization will inevitably lead to market opening. In China, the first opening is in the manufacturing field; manufacturing industry globalization will inevitably lead to the transfer to the regions with the lowest cost. Thus, the world's manufacturing center is gradually shifted to China, and it is worth mentioning that the garment manufacturing industry. China has become the world's largest clothing production and processing bases around the world, every three garments, which have one produced in China.
In the tide of economic globalization, the garment industry in China is facing a new development situation: clothing enterprises increase gradually, clothing wholesale market of booming development, clothing buyers from all over the world, which makes a textile logistic activity become increasingly frequent, service function and forms displays diverse. How to organize, control and coordination of regional textile logistics service provider, How to improve the warehousing and storage, transportation, sorting and other logistics equipment and resources processing ability and how to plan, organize the logistics resources in order to shorten the distance, reduce the logistics time and the logistics cost. Improving the whole area of textile logistic service ability has become the problem to the garment industry whether developing rapidly, stably, and healthily or not. Modern logistics has played a key role in the development of clothing industry. Therefore, the study on the integration and optimization of garment industry and logistics industry is of important theoretical and practical significance.
In this paper, to chose the south of China, and also walks in the frontier of reform and opening up-Guangdong province as the research object. Around the development of the logistics industry in the present situation and development needs, from Guangzhou white horse clothing wholesale market perspective, the paper used both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to propose the construction of Guangzhou textile logistic center, and to give the advice of construction scheme and operation plan, hoping that it will be useful for Guangzhou and Guangdong clothing logistics industry development, and can provide some references for government and enterprises, offer some basis for decision-making. This paper made the following several aspects:
First, this paper has summarized the Guangdong garment industry development present situation from the industry scale and economic benefit two aspects; It has analyzed the relationship between the clothing and the logistics industry in Guangdong which used the correlation coefficient and modulus of elasticity quantitative analysis methods; It has also done a comparative analysis among regression forecasting, triple exponential smoothing forecasting and grey forecasting methods. On this basis, based on the scale of the error of every method to establish a combined forecasting model, thus verified ad predicted the demand for Guangdong textile logistic. And the paper analyzed the result from forecasting model and forecasting number two aspects.
Second, this paper has used the case of the Baima Garment Terminal Market in Guangzhou, and analyzed the present situation of the logistics industry and the existing problems in the development; this paper has Pointed out that the four phases of the development of logistics industry in Guangzhou. They were logistics infrastructure to provide comprehensive service stage, Comprehensive service stage, information center stage and supply chain integration platform stage. On this basis, the paper used the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model to evaluation the stage of Guangzhou clothing for, and then concluded that the construction of textile logistic center in Guangzhou was very necessity and feasibility.
Third, this paper has given a construction plan of the Garment logistics center from both the function and the information construction aspects. And it especially mentioned the electronic commerce construction of the center.
Fourth, this paper has presented the specific development construction model and operation management model of Guangzhou clothing logistics center. It also mentioned the investment estimation and financing, and the financial sensitivity analysis after the center putting into use. Based on this analysis, it has elaborated the investment returns and social benefits of the garment logistics center.
According to the research results we can see that the construction of Guangzhou textile logistic center is necessary and feasible. It will improve the textile logistic environment and ability in Guangzhou. It also will be a certain guidance to better promote garment industry development.
在经济全球化的浪潮中,我国服装行业正面临新的发展形势,服装企业的逐渐增多,服装批发市场的蓬勃发展,服装采购商从世界各地纷至沓来,由此使得服装物流活动变得日益频繁,服务功能、服务形式呈现出多样化。如何组织、控制和协调区域中服装物流服务提供商,如何提高仓储、运输、分拣等物流设备和资源的处理能力和对物流活动的计划、组织与控制的能力,来达到缩短物流距离、减少物流时间、降低物流费用,以提升整个区域的服装物流服务能力,已成为服装行业快速、稳定、持续、健康发展所亟待解决的问题,现代物流在服装行业中的作用日益凸现。因此,研究服装业和物流业的整合和优化,对服装业和物流业的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文以广东省作为研究对象,围绕广东省服装业和服装物流业的发展现状和发展需求,从广州白马服装批发市场视角,运用定性和定量相结合的分析方法,提出建设广州服装物流中心的建议,并给出建设方案和运营方案,希望为广州乃至广东服装物流业的发展提供一定的参考,为政府和企业决策提供一定的依据。本文重点做了以下几个方面的工作:
第一,从行业规模和经济效益两个角度概述了广东服装行业发展状况;用相关系数和弹性系数等定量分析方法分析了广东服装业和物流业之间的相互关系;对比分析了服装物流需求预测的三种方法:回归预测法、三次指数平滑法和灰色预测法;在此基础上,基于误差的占比大小构建了组合预测模型,验证了广东服装物流的需求,并从预测模型和预测数量两个方面,进行了结果分析。
第二,以广州白马服装批发市场为例,分析了广州服装物流业的现状和在发展中存在的问题;指出广州服装物流业发展的四个阶段性趋势,依次为物流基础设施提供阶段,综合服务阶段,信息中心阶段和供应链整合平台阶段;在此基础上,运用模糊综合评价模型,定量评价了广州服装物流业发展所处的阶段,从而得出建设广州服装物流中心的必要性和可行性。
第三,从功能区建设和信息化建设两个方面给出服装物流中心的建设方案,尤其提到了电子商务的建设。
第四,给出了广州服装物流中心的具体开发建设模式和运营管理模式,投资估算与资金筹措,并对中心建成之后的盈利模式进行了财务敏感性分析。在此基础上,分析了服装物流中心的投资收益和社会效益。
根据研究结果可知,广州服装物流中心的建设是必要和可行的,对改善广州的服装物流环境,提高广州的服装物流能力,更好的促进服装行业发展具有一定的指导作用。
Economic development in the world today has shown two trends: the integration of regional economy and economic globalization. Economic globalization will inevitably lead to market opening. In China, the first opening is in the manufacturing field; manufacturing industry globalization will inevitably lead to the transfer to the regions with the lowest cost. Thus, the world's manufacturing center is gradually shifted to China, and it is worth mentioning that the garment manufacturing industry. China has become the world's largest clothing production and processing bases around the world, every three garments, which have one produced in China.
In the tide of economic globalization, the garment industry in China is facing a new development situation: clothing enterprises increase gradually, clothing wholesale market of booming development, clothing buyers from all over the world, which makes a textile logistic activity become increasingly frequent, service function and forms displays diverse. How to organize, control and coordination of regional textile logistics service provider, How to improve the warehousing and storage, transportation, sorting and other logistics equipment and resources processing ability and how to plan, organize the logistics resources in order to shorten the distance, reduce the logistics time and the logistics cost. Improving the whole area of textile logistic service ability has become the problem to the garment industry whether developing rapidly, stably, and healthily or not. Modern logistics has played a key role in the development of clothing industry. Therefore, the study on the integration and optimization of garment industry and logistics industry is of important theoretical and practical significance.
In this paper, to chose the south of China, and also walks in the frontier of reform and opening up-Guangdong province as the research object. Around the development of the logistics industry in the present situation and development needs, from Guangzhou white horse clothing wholesale market perspective, the paper used both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to propose the construction of Guangzhou textile logistic center, and to give the advice of construction scheme and operation plan, hoping that it will be useful for Guangzhou and Guangdong clothing logistics industry development, and can provide some references for government and enterprises, offer some basis for decision-making. This paper made the following several aspects:
First, this paper has summarized the Guangdong garment industry development present situation from the industry scale and economic benefit two aspects; It has analyzed the relationship between the clothing and the logistics industry in Guangdong which used the correlation coefficient and modulus of elasticity quantitative analysis methods; It has also done a comparative analysis among regression forecasting, triple exponential smoothing forecasting and grey forecasting methods. On this basis, based on the scale of the error of every method to establish a combined forecasting model, thus verified ad predicted the demand for Guangdong textile logistic. And the paper analyzed the result from forecasting model and forecasting number two aspects.
Second, this paper has used the case of the Baima Garment Terminal Market in Guangzhou, and analyzed the present situation of the logistics industry and the existing problems in the development; this paper has Pointed out that the four phases of the development of logistics industry in Guangzhou. They were logistics infrastructure to provide comprehensive service stage, Comprehensive service stage, information center stage and supply chain integration platform stage. On this basis, the paper used the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model to evaluation the stage of Guangzhou clothing for, and then concluded that the construction of textile logistic center in Guangzhou was very necessity and feasibility.
Third, this paper has given a construction plan of the Garment logistics center from both the function and the information construction aspects. And it especially mentioned the electronic commerce construction of the center.
Fourth, this paper has presented the specific development construction model and operation management model of Guangzhou clothing logistics center. It also mentioned the investment estimation and financing, and the financial sensitivity analysis after the center putting into use. Based on this analysis, it has elaborated the investment returns and social benefits of the garment logistics center.
According to the research results we can see that the construction of Guangzhou textile logistic center is necessary and feasible. It will improve the textile logistic environment and ability in Guangzhou. It also will be a certain guidance to better promote garment industry development.
引文
[1]徐印州.周颖.对我国批发市场未来发展的思考[J].南方经济,2003(3)
[2]方小山.专业批发市场发展动态研究及规划探析[J].城市规划,2002,26(10)
[3]宫震.即墨市生活资料批发市场空间布局研究[D].山东建筑大学.2011
[4]何明珂.重新认识物流及其价值链[J].中国物资流通,2000,(3):10
[5]道格拉斯.兰伯特、詹姆士.斯托克,莉萨,埃拉姆.物流管理[M].电力工业出版社,2003
[6]罗纳德.H.巴罗.企业物流管理——价值链的规划、组织和控制[M].机械工业出版社,2002
[7]詹姆士R斯托克.(邵晓东等译).战略物流管理[M].中国财政出版社,2003
[8]孟雷.三种企业竞争优势观的整合研究[J].管理评论,2004,07
[9]Peter Hines. Diversity in Logistics and the Importance of Logistics in the Extended Enterprise. Proceedings of Logistics Educators’Conference,2000,91
[10]冯晖.刘浩.中国商业地产营运.广州:暨南大学出版社,2004,11:26
[11]金明路.各类专业市场的存在基础与发展前景,浙江社会科学,1996,5:21-22
[12]高阳、顾庆良.入世后我国纺织品服装批发市场发展趋势探讨.2002.09:2
[13]强赤华.我国专业批发市场的理论与实践基础[J].商业经济与管理,1995(3):32-35
[14]王利、韩增林,李亚军.现代区域物流规划的理论框架研究[J].经济地理,2003,(9):601-605
[15]谢立新.温州产业集群成长机制与竞争优势[J].发展研究.2004,(3):12-14
[16]高自友,孙会君.现代物流与交通运输系统[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2003
[17]储雪检.现代物流管理教程[M].上海:上海三联书店,2002
[18]单泊源,戴庚先.现代物流管理[M].长沙:湖南大学出版社,2003
[19]刘妍.综合物流中心规划与运作管理研究:[D].西安:西南交通大学,2002
[20]熊斌辉.现代物流配送中心的理论与实务:[D].西安:西南公路交通大学,2000
[21]朱伟生,张洪革.物流成本管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2003
[22]何明坷.物流系统论[J].北京:中国审计出版社,2001
[23]吴荣波.物流中心规划相关问题的研究[D].西南交通大学.2009
[24]陶靖轩.应用统计学[M].第二版.北京:中国计量出版社, 2009
[25]高鸿业.西方经济学[M].第二版.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007
[26]施泽军,李凯.基于灰色模型和指数平滑法的集装箱吞吐量预测[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2008,27(2):302-304
[27]汪树玉,刘国华.系统分析[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2002:123-15
[28]杨度.广州服装还能流通天下[J].中国纺织.2009.07:52-59
[29]中国物流发展报告:2006-2007/中国物流与采购联合会编[R].北京:中国物资出版社.2007,(5)
[30]侯东昱.王瑾.服装物流发展的动力——电子商务[J].商场现代化,2006.12(上):100
[31]肖慧慧.王小军.服装电子商务发展趋势的战略研究[J].战略经济.2011.04(上):59-60
[32]王秀才.论服装电子商务B2B2C模式的创建[D].天津工业大学.2007
[33]杨毅群.物流园区规划与运作模式研究[D].武汉理工大学.2004
[34]韩董.全球价值链下我国服装业物流整合研究[D].江苏大学.2009
[35]《商贸物流发展专项规划》(商商贸发[2011]67号)
[36]《中国统计年鉴》2001-2010
[37]《广东统计年鉴》2001-2011
[38]《广州统计年鉴》2011
[2]方小山.专业批发市场发展动态研究及规划探析[J].城市规划,2002,26(10)
[3]宫震.即墨市生活资料批发市场空间布局研究[D].山东建筑大学.2011
[4]何明珂.重新认识物流及其价值链[J].中国物资流通,2000,(3):10
[5]道格拉斯.兰伯特、詹姆士.斯托克,莉萨,埃拉姆.物流管理[M].电力工业出版社,2003
[6]罗纳德.H.巴罗.企业物流管理——价值链的规划、组织和控制[M].机械工业出版社,2002
[7]詹姆士R斯托克.(邵晓东等译).战略物流管理[M].中国财政出版社,2003
[8]孟雷.三种企业竞争优势观的整合研究[J].管理评论,2004,07
[9]Peter Hines. Diversity in Logistics and the Importance of Logistics in the Extended Enterprise. Proceedings of Logistics Educators’Conference,2000,91
[10]冯晖.刘浩.中国商业地产营运.广州:暨南大学出版社,2004,11:26
[11]金明路.各类专业市场的存在基础与发展前景,浙江社会科学,1996,5:21-22
[12]高阳、顾庆良.入世后我国纺织品服装批发市场发展趋势探讨.2002.09:2
[13]强赤华.我国专业批发市场的理论与实践基础[J].商业经济与管理,1995(3):32-35
[14]王利、韩增林,李亚军.现代区域物流规划的理论框架研究[J].经济地理,2003,(9):601-605
[15]谢立新.温州产业集群成长机制与竞争优势[J].发展研究.2004,(3):12-14
[16]高自友,孙会君.现代物流与交通运输系统[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2003
[17]储雪检.现代物流管理教程[M].上海:上海三联书店,2002
[18]单泊源,戴庚先.现代物流管理[M].长沙:湖南大学出版社,2003
[19]刘妍.综合物流中心规划与运作管理研究:[D].西安:西南交通大学,2002
[20]熊斌辉.现代物流配送中心的理论与实务:[D].西安:西南公路交通大学,2000
[21]朱伟生,张洪革.物流成本管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2003
[22]何明坷.物流系统论[J].北京:中国审计出版社,2001
[23]吴荣波.物流中心规划相关问题的研究[D].西南交通大学.2009
[24]陶靖轩.应用统计学[M].第二版.北京:中国计量出版社, 2009
[25]高鸿业.西方经济学[M].第二版.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007
[26]施泽军,李凯.基于灰色模型和指数平滑法的集装箱吞吐量预测[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2008,27(2):302-304
[27]汪树玉,刘国华.系统分析[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2002:123-15
[28]杨度.广州服装还能流通天下[J].中国纺织.2009.07:52-59
[29]中国物流发展报告:2006-2007/中国物流与采购联合会编[R].北京:中国物资出版社.2007,(5)
[30]侯东昱.王瑾.服装物流发展的动力——电子商务[J].商场现代化,2006.12(上):100
[31]肖慧慧.王小军.服装电子商务发展趋势的战略研究[J].战略经济.2011.04(上):59-60
[32]王秀才.论服装电子商务B2B2C模式的创建[D].天津工业大学.2007
[33]杨毅群.物流园区规划与运作模式研究[D].武汉理工大学.2004
[34]韩董.全球价值链下我国服装业物流整合研究[D].江苏大学.2009
[35]《商贸物流发展专项规划》(商商贸发[2011]67号)
[36]《中国统计年鉴》2001-2010
[37]《广东统计年鉴》2001-2011
[38]《广州统计年鉴》2011