我国电信企业并购风险研究
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摘要
在新经济背景下,并购作为企业扩张的一种有效途径,己经得到越来越多的全球电信企业的青睐。我国运营商的并购仍处在起步和探索阶段,由于并购企业涉及很多资本运作和融合等问题,且中国部分企业国际投资经验匮乏,因而并购成功率很低,风险极高。因此国内电信企业的并购面临着并购风险的巨大挑战。
本文基于产业经济理论和并购经济理论,深入分析电信产业的特性、趋势及并购推动因素。总结归纳风险特征、风险因素和风险事件,进一步做相应风险识别和评价;从案例实证出发,对重点并购风险因素进行深入研究和探索,最后提出基于电信企业并购风险的防范建议。以期帮助电信企业决策者对并购扩张的理性思考,同时为我国电信企业并购风险的分析提供思路与方法上的启示。
本文在第一章中阐明研究背景、意义与目的、探讨该研究的可行性、并界定基本范畴、介绍相关方法和国内外的研究成果以及本文的研究思路和框架。
本文第二章从理论入手,研究电信产业特性并总结电信企业并购动因。从系统性和阶段性角度分析电信企业并购风险。发现追求协同效应、减少竞争者、规模经济和范围经济是所有电信运营商进行并购的原因。从风险的阶段性和系统性角度,
本文第三章从特征、根源和表现形式各方面对我国电信企业并购风险进行深入分析。识别、总结出我国电信企业并购的几个重要风险:政治法律风险、资本运作风险、市场环境风险、整合风险。发现资本运作风险因素在并购活动中的突出重要性,是所有并购风险的归宿。因此在第四章中针对该风险进行具体实证分析。
文章第四章在前文对并购风险进行理论分析的基础上,通过一些电信企业并购的财务及年报数据,用案例实证方法分析电信企业资本运作风险,以此挖掘该风险对电信并购活动的影响程度。其中运用到现金流量贴现法,层次分析法和现金存量法。最终。经计算分析发现,电信并购只有根据其产业资本特性,合理适当地进行资本运作和方法选择,才能有效降低并购风险。
最后根据风险防范策略体系,我国电信企业现状和市场环境,有正对性地提出提出一些风险防范建议:从战略发展的高度明确并购目的、谨慎选择并购目标、正确言癫⒐悍绞胶秃鲜实牟⒐菏被取
Under the new-economic background, M &A has been paid attention to by more and more telecom enterprises as a resultful method for enterprise expanding. "Economies of scale advantage" represented by M&A makes these enterprises, which ever were suffered from rapidness in technology and competition in market, have to change their original ideas that corporation' s growth only depends on self-accumulation. In recent years, Chinese telecom operation enterprises have taken several M&A activities continuously home and abroad to gain potential profit and cover more geographic business scale. But practice has proved that M&A as a systems engineering is numerous and complicated, and lots of risks exist in it. And it was just because many companies were not cognizant of risks and didn't take any actions to deal with them, few M&A deal was successful. So how to rightly identify and deal with risks is the key to success of M&A.
However, domestic ones' M&A just started and in the phase of exploration. Because M&A has something to do with problems such as capital operation and merger and these companies lack of overseas invest experiences, the probability of success was low and risks were very high. Thus, our telecom enterprises are facing up big challenges of M&A risks.
Based on industrial economic theory and M&A theory, this thesis in-depth analysis the characteristics of the telecom industry, trends and the factors promoting the M&A. From the large number of case studies, summarized risk characteristics, risk factors and risks, accordingly further risk identification and evaluation. Then study and explore the key risk in empirical way. Finally, put forward some telecom M&A risk prevention recommendations.
The full thesis is divided into five parts as following. Part I: Aggregate related metric theories in M&A and risk measurement; Part II: From theory, the paper study telecom industry, and concluded telecom M&A motivation. Then show the analysis method with risk characteristics systemicly and phasely ; Part III: From aspects of the root、characteristics and manifestations in-depth analysis the Chinese telecom M&A behaviors; Part IV: Study the capital operation risk in cases studying way with some telecom enterprises' financial data and annual reports data; Part V: Put forward some risk prevention recommendations according risk prevention strategy.
From the results of study and the course of analysis, two purposes are expected to reach by the paper: one is to help decision-makers of telecom enterprises to think M&A rationally; the other is to give some revelations on thought and method in risk analysis of M&A of Chinese telecom enterprises.
本文基于产业经济理论和并购经济理论,深入分析电信产业的特性、趋势及并购推动因素。总结归纳风险特征、风险因素和风险事件,进一步做相应风险识别和评价;从案例实证出发,对重点并购风险因素进行深入研究和探索,最后提出基于电信企业并购风险的防范建议。以期帮助电信企业决策者对并购扩张的理性思考,同时为我国电信企业并购风险的分析提供思路与方法上的启示。
本文在第一章中阐明研究背景、意义与目的、探讨该研究的可行性、并界定基本范畴、介绍相关方法和国内外的研究成果以及本文的研究思路和框架。
本文第二章从理论入手,研究电信产业特性并总结电信企业并购动因。从系统性和阶段性角度分析电信企业并购风险。发现追求协同效应、减少竞争者、规模经济和范围经济是所有电信运营商进行并购的原因。从风险的阶段性和系统性角度,
本文第三章从特征、根源和表现形式各方面对我国电信企业并购风险进行深入分析。识别、总结出我国电信企业并购的几个重要风险:政治法律风险、资本运作风险、市场环境风险、整合风险。发现资本运作风险因素在并购活动中的突出重要性,是所有并购风险的归宿。因此在第四章中针对该风险进行具体实证分析。
文章第四章在前文对并购风险进行理论分析的基础上,通过一些电信企业并购的财务及年报数据,用案例实证方法分析电信企业资本运作风险,以此挖掘该风险对电信并购活动的影响程度。其中运用到现金流量贴现法,层次分析法和现金存量法。最终。经计算分析发现,电信并购只有根据其产业资本特性,合理适当地进行资本运作和方法选择,才能有效降低并购风险。
最后根据风险防范策略体系,我国电信企业现状和市场环境,有正对性地提出提出一些风险防范建议:从战略发展的高度明确并购目的、谨慎选择并购目标、正确言癫⒐悍绞胶秃鲜实牟⒐菏被取
Under the new-economic background, M &A has been paid attention to by more and more telecom enterprises as a resultful method for enterprise expanding. "Economies of scale advantage" represented by M&A makes these enterprises, which ever were suffered from rapidness in technology and competition in market, have to change their original ideas that corporation' s growth only depends on self-accumulation. In recent years, Chinese telecom operation enterprises have taken several M&A activities continuously home and abroad to gain potential profit and cover more geographic business scale. But practice has proved that M&A as a systems engineering is numerous and complicated, and lots of risks exist in it. And it was just because many companies were not cognizant of risks and didn't take any actions to deal with them, few M&A deal was successful. So how to rightly identify and deal with risks is the key to success of M&A.
However, domestic ones' M&A just started and in the phase of exploration. Because M&A has something to do with problems such as capital operation and merger and these companies lack of overseas invest experiences, the probability of success was low and risks were very high. Thus, our telecom enterprises are facing up big challenges of M&A risks.
Based on industrial economic theory and M&A theory, this thesis in-depth analysis the characteristics of the telecom industry, trends and the factors promoting the M&A. From the large number of case studies, summarized risk characteristics, risk factors and risks, accordingly further risk identification and evaluation. Then study and explore the key risk in empirical way. Finally, put forward some telecom M&A risk prevention recommendations.
The full thesis is divided into five parts as following. Part I: Aggregate related metric theories in M&A and risk measurement; Part II: From theory, the paper study telecom industry, and concluded telecom M&A motivation. Then show the analysis method with risk characteristics systemicly and phasely ; Part III: From aspects of the root、characteristics and manifestations in-depth analysis the Chinese telecom M&A behaviors; Part IV: Study the capital operation risk in cases studying way with some telecom enterprises' financial data and annual reports data; Part V: Put forward some risk prevention recommendations according risk prevention strategy.
From the results of study and the course of analysis, two purposes are expected to reach by the paper: one is to help decision-makers of telecom enterprises to think M&A rationally; the other is to give some revelations on thought and method in risk analysis of M&A of Chinese telecom enterprises.
引文
1.Schwert G W Markup Pricing in Mergers and.Acqusitions.Journal of Financial Economics,1983,(4)
2.朗艳,陈震红,徐勇.企业并购主要方式的风险剖析.工业技术经济2001
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18.陈石清等.上市公司资本成本及经济业绩评价研究.财经理论与实践2004(1)
19.李继志 李明贤.我国企业并购过程中的财务风险及防范.北京农学院学报 2004(4)
20.张永力.企业并购风险及防范.商业经济2004(5)
21.乔梁.规模经济论—企业并购中的规模经济研究.北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社2000
22.曾广胜.新经济与跨国公司并购.南开经济研究2004(1)
23.任啸,彭卫民.我国高科技企业的风险管理.大连理工大学学报(社科版),2000
24.潘建亭.美国企业并购分析及启示.中国工业经济2004(3)
25.邓荣霖.壳资源—中国上市公司并购理论与案例.管理世界2001(5)
26.王燕 杨文瀚.金融风险度量方法的研究进展.科技进步与对策2005(8)
27.何信 张世英等 动态一致性风险度量系统工程理论方法应用2003(9)
28.陈云贤.风险-收益决策分析.北京:新华出版社2001
29.王春峰.金融市场风险管理.天津:天津大学出版社2001
30.乔瑞 张海鱼.VAR:风险价值.北京:中信出版社2000
31.邓富民 刘柱胜、AMP分析法在风险投资项目评估中的应用研究(月.电子科技大学学报社科版.2002,(2)
32.P.S.Su darsanam著The Essence of Mergers and Acquisitions
33.殷孟波,甘煌.中国金融风险机理研究(J).四川金融.1998,(9).
34.杨华峰 汪晓.国际投资风险防范分析与策略金融市场.1995,11(5)
35.姚立根 牛贵霞.现代企业并购行为经济分析数量经济技术经济研究2000,(2)
36.杨阳 盛中.关于企业兼并工作的探讨.冶金管理.1999,(6)
37.黄建成,王从伟.企业并购后的管理组织整合.华东经济管理.1997,(1)
38.侯向丽.我国企业并购中的障碍与对策分析.辽宁经济.1999,2
39.汪翔红.公司购并方式的比较研究仁J飞经济与管理研究,1999,(2)
40.雷造民 戚津东.中国企业并购:问题和政策建议.经济与管理究.1999,(4)
41.陈元荧.企业并购模式与成功的内部条件研究.经济理论与经济管理.1999,(4)
42.袁智德 张宇 宣国良.世界高科技企业兼并、重组的特征与战略.外国经济与管理.2000,(7)
43.胡玲,李瑛.中外企业并购支付方式比较(J)国有资产管理1999,(3).
44.宋浩,刘庆.小议企业并购模式[J].则金贸易.1999,(5).
45.William W.Aiberts.The Corporate Merger[M].First Edition.Chicago University of Chicago Press.1996
46.JamesL.Athearn S.Travis Pritchett Joan T.Schmit.Risk Management and Insurance[M].Seventh Edition.West Publishing Company.1996
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2.朗艳,陈震红,徐勇.企业并购主要方式的风险剖析.工业技术经济2001
3.中国信息产业部.2005中国通信统计年度报告.人民邮电出版社2006.8
4.Dennis Carey.兼并与收购.中国人民大学出版社2004.8
5.干春晖.并购经济学.清华大学出版社2004.4
6.方芳,闫晓彤.中国上市公司并购绩效与思考.经济理论与经济管理2002
7.刘红霞,韩塬.企业并购模式的比较分析.财经理论与实践2003(3)
8.中国企业兼并重组研究中心.中国企业并购年鉴(2005).人民邮电出版社2006.5
9.许子枋.企业兼并风险研究.湖南人民出版社2000
10.陈永忠 姚洪.国有企业资本运营研究.北京:人民出版社2000
11.荆林波.中国企业大并购.北京:社会科学文献出版社2002
12.郑湘明 秦喜杰.企业并购和目标企业定价研究.财经问题研究2004.1
13.曹凤岐.如何进行企业重组与并购.北京:北京大学出版社1999
14.冯根福 吴林江.我国上市公司并购绩效的实证研究.经济研究2002(1)
15.李善民 李珩.中国上市公司资产重组绩效研究.管理世界2003(11)
16.高立法 冯腾达主编.企业经营分析与效绩评.北京:经济管理出版社2001
17.姜青航,陈方正.风险度量原理.同济大学出版社2000
18.陈石清等.上市公司资本成本及经济业绩评价研究.财经理论与实践2004(1)
19.李继志 李明贤.我国企业并购过程中的财务风险及防范.北京农学院学报 2004(4)
20.张永力.企业并购风险及防范.商业经济2004(5)
21.乔梁.规模经济论—企业并购中的规模经济研究.北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社2000
22.曾广胜.新经济与跨国公司并购.南开经济研究2004(1)
23.任啸,彭卫民.我国高科技企业的风险管理.大连理工大学学报(社科版),2000
24.潘建亭.美国企业并购分析及启示.中国工业经济2004(3)
25.邓荣霖.壳资源—中国上市公司并购理论与案例.管理世界2001(5)
26.王燕 杨文瀚.金融风险度量方法的研究进展.科技进步与对策2005(8)
27.何信 张世英等 动态一致性风险度量系统工程理论方法应用2003(9)
28.陈云贤.风险-收益决策分析.北京:新华出版社2001
29.王春峰.金融市场风险管理.天津:天津大学出版社2001
30.乔瑞 张海鱼.VAR:风险价值.北京:中信出版社2000
31.邓富民 刘柱胜、AMP分析法在风险投资项目评估中的应用研究(月.电子科技大学学报社科版.2002,(2)
32.P.S.Su darsanam著The Essence of Mergers and Acquisitions
33.殷孟波,甘煌.中国金融风险机理研究(J).四川金融.1998,(9).
34.杨华峰 汪晓.国际投资风险防范分析与策略金融市场.1995,11(5)
35.姚立根 牛贵霞.现代企业并购行为经济分析数量经济技术经济研究2000,(2)
36.杨阳 盛中.关于企业兼并工作的探讨.冶金管理.1999,(6)
37.黄建成,王从伟.企业并购后的管理组织整合.华东经济管理.1997,(1)
38.侯向丽.我国企业并购中的障碍与对策分析.辽宁经济.1999,2
39.汪翔红.公司购并方式的比较研究仁J飞经济与管理研究,1999,(2)
40.雷造民 戚津东.中国企业并购:问题和政策建议.经济与管理究.1999,(4)
41.陈元荧.企业并购模式与成功的内部条件研究.经济理论与经济管理.1999,(4)
42.袁智德 张宇 宣国良.世界高科技企业兼并、重组的特征与战略.外国经济与管理.2000,(7)
43.胡玲,李瑛.中外企业并购支付方式比较(J)国有资产管理1999,(3).
44.宋浩,刘庆.小议企业并购模式[J].则金贸易.1999,(5).
45.William W.Aiberts.The Corporate Merger[M].First Edition.Chicago University of Chicago Press.1996
46.JamesL.Athearn S.Travis Pritchett Joan T.Schmit.Risk Management and Insurance[M].Seventh Edition.West Publishing Company.1996
47.中国移动公司.2006年度报告.中国移动(香港)有限公司出版.2007.4
48.中国移动公司.2005年度报告.中国移动(香港)有限公司出版.2006.4
49.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2006 Annual Report.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2007.5
50.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2005 Annual Report.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2006.5
51.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2004 Annual Report.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2005.5
52.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2003 Annual Report.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2004.5
53.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2002 Annual Report.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2003.5
54.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2001 Annual Report.Millicom International Cellular S.A.2002.5